fib_1618
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2016-05-17 16:00:08 fib1618: good day 2016-05-17 16:00:12 fib1618: how is everyone? 2016-05-17 16:01:52 mojave: awesome, hope you're well 2016-05-17 16:03:09 fib1618: doing fine...thanks for asking 2016-05-17 16:03:19 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?? 2016-05-17 16:04:08 fib1618: ISEE at 56 today 2016-05-17 16:04:17 fib1618: checking the BETS 2016-05-17 16:04:30 mojave: yes, been watching equity p/c volume 2016-05-17 16:04:37 mojave: & sentiment 2016-05-17 16:04:56 fib1618: wow...volume has been huge in ARCA 2016-05-17 16:05:48 fib1618: NAUD now in a Bearish Configuration 2016-05-17 16:06:12 fib1618: +40 2016-05-17 16:06:26 fib1618: so no change from Saturday 2016-05-17 16:06:43 mojave: lots of churn 2016-05-17 16:06:43 fib1618: well...with ISEE as low as it was today 2016-05-17 16:07:02 fib1618: I would expect that we may see the rest of the week as positive going into OPEX 2016-05-17 16:07:25 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started 2016-05-17 16:08:20 fib1618: after moving up to a reading of -26 on Monday 2016-05-17 16:08:28 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved slightly lower today 2016-05-17 16:08:41 fib1618: coming in with a reading of -47 2016-05-17 16:08:50 fib1618: no divergence at this point 2016-05-17 16:09:13 fib1618: but it would seem that we're looking to develop a complex bottom in the MCO 2016-05-17 16:09:35 fib1618: looking at the CO components 2016-05-17 16:09:57 fib1618: and the 10% fell lower after its test of its zero line on Monday 2016-05-17 16:10:25 fib1618: with the 5% Trend now just above this same demarcation line between who's in control 2016-05-17 16:11:04 fib1618: chart price support remains at the 10,100 level in the NYA 2016-05-17 16:11:30 fib1618: and though we're trying to hold here 2016-05-17 16:12:36 fib1618: any breakdown below the +500 level in the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM over the next day or so will probably provide the kind of capitulation low we've been looking for 2016-05-17 16:13:10 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO 2016-05-17 16:13:35 fib1618: and we see that it actually showed more strength on Monday as it moved to the -18 level 2016-05-17 16:13:50 fib1618: as we settled today with a reading of -34 2016-05-17 16:14:13 fib1618: both of the NYSE Composite breadth MCO components remain above their zero lines 2016-05-17 16:14:46 fib1618: and this would suggest that market liquidity remains ample enough to absorb the current correctional process 2016-05-17 16:15:51 fib1618: this also indicates that the underlying tone of the marketplace remains positive on an intermediate term basis 2016-05-17 16:16:09 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO 2016-05-17 16:16:28 fib1618: and it found resistance near the -25 level on Monday before moving lower again today 2016-05-17 16:16:45 fib1618: and with today's reading at -46 2016-05-17 16:17:00 fib1618: is tracking the NYSE Common Stocks very nicely 2016-05-17 16:17:40 fib1618: putting ruler to monitor 2016-05-17 16:18:01 fib1618: and the ongoing declining tops line in the NASDAQ breadth MCO intersects at around the -10 level 2016-05-17 16:19:07 fib1618: but the main focus remains with the blip resistance area that took place on 5/2 2016-05-17 16:19:20 fib1618: for until this area is taken out 2016-05-17 16:19:36 fib1618: the sellers will remain in overall control of the current price structure 2016-05-17 16:20:07 fib1618: moving to the NDX 2016-05-17 16:20:23 fib1618: and the first thing we see is that the NDX breadth MCSUM is now about to move down and through its zero line 2016-05-17 16:20:46 fib1618: so any turn around here by the buyers 2016-05-17 16:20:59 fib1618: that will take us back above the MCO zero line 2016-05-17 16:21:13 fib1618: would then tell us that the majority of the sellers are now out of their positions 2016-05-17 16:21:28 fib1618: and that one side is about to take intermediate term control of prices 2016-05-17 16:22:04 fib1618: 4300 remains good support on the price chart 2016-05-17 16:22:39 fib1618: as the appearance of a symmetrical triangle becomes more prominent in the price pattern structure on a daily basis 2016-05-17 16:23:45 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO is also echoing both the NASDAQ and NYSE CO MCO's 2016-05-17 16:24:09 fib1618: though we did see both a break below the zero line in the SPX 10% Trend today 2016-05-17 16:24:25 fib1618: along with a break below the +750 level in the SPX breadth MCSUM 2016-05-17 16:25:09 fib1618: so for the sellers, this would be an opportune time to really make the buyers feel some hurt 2016-05-17 16:25:57 fib1618: but the odds are a bit better to look for another bounce higher on Wednesday 2016-05-17 16:26:29 fib1618: as we continue to be under "hit and run" rules of a choppy, volatile marketplace 2016-05-17 16:27:05 fib1618: not a lot of help in the OEX breadth MCO data 2016-05-17 16:27:44 fib1618: as it continues to show choppy behavior like the rest of the indices 2016-05-17 16:28:17 fib1618: the 900 price level continues to show good support there 2016-05-17 16:29:49 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO is now back to being highly "oversold" 2016-05-17 16:30:00 fib1618: with a reading today of -77 2016-05-17 16:30:30 fib1618: so far it would seem that we had our expected low on Friday 2016-05-17 16:30:39 fib1618: and it *looks* to backing and filling now 2016-05-17 16:30:45 fib1618: let's see what the MID says 2016-05-17 16:31:33 fib1618: first thing is that we now have bullish divergence in place between price and the MID breadth MCO 2016-05-17 16:32:02 fib1618: with the MID MCO 5% component now challenging its zero line 2016-05-17 16:32:12 fib1618: this would indicate a bounce attempt on Wednesday 2016-05-17 16:32:36 fib1618: while the MID breadth MCSUM is now within range of natural support at the +500 level 2016-05-17 16:32:59 fib1618: 1420 is still support for the pattern structure 2016-05-17 16:33:29 fib1618: we also have bullish divergence now in the SML breadth MCO 2016-05-17 16:33:43 fib1618: and with a reading of -62 2016-05-17 16:34:00 fib1618: this would be strong enough to look for a foundational low to develop 2016-05-17 16:34:28 fib1618: we also we have the price pattern meeting its downside target of 670 today 2016-05-17 16:35:04 fib1618: so we'll see if the small caps once again make a stand and begin to show some leadership to the upside 2016-05-17 16:35:25 fib1618: this, of course, would help in reaffirming that we're likely near an important price low on a general basis 2016-05-17 16:36:03 fib1618: and moving to the TM breadth MCSUM 2016-05-17 16:36:12 fib1618: it moved down and through the +500 level today 2016-05-17 16:36:25 fib1618: but there wasn't too much technical price damage with this break of support 2016-05-17 16:37:06 fib1618: with 21,000 the downside floor if this were to continue to trace out our expected trading range 2016-05-17 16:37:09 fib1618: so... 2016-05-17 16:37:30 fib1618: not a lot of difference between last Thursday and today 2016-05-17 16:38:08 fib1618: though we are getting indications that the MID Caps and SMALL Caps may be all finished with with the selling process 2016-05-17 16:38:08 mojave: FOMC minutes tomorrow I think 2016-05-17 16:38:15 fib1618: thanks 2016-05-17 16:38:51 fib1618: I heard today's excuse for the sell off was because a FED Governor mentioned that there might be 2 or 3 rate increases this year 2016-05-17 16:39:04 fib1618: but as long as money continues to support the interest rate sensitive issues 2016-05-17 16:39:28 fib1618: this doesn't bode well for even one increase, no less, three 2016-05-17 16:40:05 fib1618: and we all know how the market loves excuses to move sharply either higher or lower 2016-05-17 16:40:14 fib1618: it's all in the merchandising 2016-05-17 16:40:16 fib1618: 2016-05-17 16:40:25 fib1618: let's see how the volume side is doing 2016-05-17 16:41:02 fib1618: sharp sell off in the XLP today 2016-05-17 16:41:18 fib1618: while the XLE breadth MCO has now made it back to its zero line 2016-05-17 16:42:13 fib1618: OK...pullback today in the NYSE CO volume MCO was minimal compared with breadth 2016-05-17 16:42:30 fib1618: this would suggest that we're close to selling exhaustion 2016-05-17 16:42:54 fib1618: the NYSE Composite volume MCO, however, is more in sync with its breadth cousin 2016-05-17 16:43:49 fib1618: both the MCO volume components and the NYSE Composite volume MCSUM are weaker than their breadth cousins 2016-05-17 16:44:05 fib1618: so we'll have to watch that near term 2016-05-17 16:44:35 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is also about to move down and through its zero line near term 2016-05-17 16:44:52 fib1618: and this kind of set up can produce some large moves in this price index 2016-05-17 16:45:04 fib1618: if we find support...a good reflex rally will take place 2016-05-17 16:45:09 fib1618: if we don't find support 2016-05-17 16:45:21 fib1618: then a small "crash like" event could take place 2016-05-17 16:45:59 fib1618: looking at the NDX volume MCO though 2016-05-17 16:46:27 fib1618: and the odds seem to be tilted toward a positive resolution it would seem 2016-05-17 16:47:27 fib1618: both the SPX and OEX volume MCO's are pretty much neutral from last Thursday 2016-05-17 16:47:44 fib1618: while the Dow volume MCSUM is about to move down and through its zero line 2016-05-17 16:48:28 fib1618: as with the breadth data, the MID and SML volume MCO's now have bullish divergence 2016-05-17 16:48:59 fib1618: while the SML volume MCO actually moved to a higher low on Friday 2016-05-17 16:49:29 fib1618: this "whisper" would suggest that the underlying tone of money is beginning to wane on the sell side 2016-05-17 16:50:12 fib1618: and that its possible to see the buyers begin to take a better posture toward this group of issues 2016-05-17 16:50:48 fib1618: and like the majority of the MCO's tonight 2016-05-17 16:51:15 fib1618: the TM volume MCO looks to be coiling within a small symmetrical triangle configuration 2016-05-17 16:51:41 fib1618: and this would suggest indecision by traders overall 2016-05-17 16:51:51 fib1618: so... 2016-05-17 16:52:38 fib1618: the market seems to be stuck between two areas of resistance 2016-05-17 16:52:47 fib1618: and we're beginning to compress 2016-05-17 16:53:09 fib1618: and when these compression points are released 2016-05-17 16:53:27 fib1618: we will usually see strong, purposeful moves in prices 2016-05-17 16:53:42 fib1618: for the bulls...it will likely be short covering like we said last week 2016-05-17 16:54:00 fib1618: for the bears...it will be some sort of surprise that was not expected 2016-05-17 16:54:15 fib1618: given the strength in the interest rate sensitive issues though 2016-05-17 16:54:43 fib1618: one would think that the sellers are beginning to exhaust themselves 2016-05-17 16:55:01 fib1618: and this is where shorts begin to cover out of frustration 2016-05-17 16:55:09 fib1618: and it snowballs from there 2016-05-17 16:55:29 fib1618: we also know that the ISEE numbers have been showing a lot of put buying over the last 10 trading days 2016-05-17 16:55:40 fib1618: and given that we're coming up on this month's expiration 2016-05-17 16:56:06 fib1618: it wouldn't be surprising to see any front month put positions close worthless 2016-05-17 16:56:20 fib1618: like the market loves to do 2016-05-17 16:58:59 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's are fairing 2016-05-17 16:59:39 fib1618: we now have climactic numbers in the OEX and Dow CVI's 2016-05-17 16:59:51 fib1618: so let's look for a price bottom in the next 2 trading days 2016-05-17 17:00:23 fib1618: we'll call the STVO's minimally "oversold" now 2016-05-17 17:00:45 fib1618: but the VTO's remain mixed 2016-05-17 17:01:06 fib1618: with the NDX VTO coming very close to suggesting a price low is in 2016-05-17 17:01:12 fib1618: still 2016-05-17 17:01:51 fib1618: it would seem that we're going to need some additional selling here before we can look for prices to turnaround and begin to trend 2016-05-17 17:02:09 fib1618: NYSE TRIN pretty high at .92 2016-05-17 17:02:38 fib1618: but the Open 10 remains highly "oversold" with a reading of 1.16 2016-05-17 17:03:02 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN also neutral today with a reading of .89 2016-05-17 17:03:27 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00 2016-05-17 17:03:32 fib1618: so pretty sloppy there 2016-05-17 17:03:44 fib1618: TM TRIN at .99 2016-05-17 17:03:54 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.10 2016-05-17 17:04:17 fib1618: so taking everything into consideration 2016-05-17 17:04:38 fib1618: we might have a turn in the opposite direction on Wednesday 2016-05-17 17:04:56 fib1618: and if we get enough of a move to where the shorts begin to get nervous and cover 2016-05-17 17:05:10 fib1618: it could be another 1% day to the upside 2016-05-17 17:06:04 fib1618: looks like we're stuck moving back and forth for now 2016-05-17 17:06:15 fib1618: so for scalpers and day traders...nirvana 2016-05-17 17:06:56 fib1618: for the bulls..we're on hold 2016-05-17 17:07:08 fib1618: for the bears...still more work to do before they have an upper hand 2016-05-17 17:07:14 fib1618: but like we talked about last week 2016-05-17 17:07:21 fib1618: the NASDAQ is concerning for the bull case 2016-05-17 17:07:30 fib1618: but if the MCSUM zero lines hold 2016-05-17 17:07:53 fib1618: any concern here could just as easily turn into a good buying op 2016-05-17 17:08:11 fib1618: we'll just have to wait and see what the market has to give us 2016-05-17 17:08:21 fib1618: until then...we remain patient 2016-05-17 17:08:25 fib1618: anything else? 2016-05-17 17:08:35 fib1618: I'll look around in the meantime 2016-05-17 17:09:50 fib1618: gold continues to hold above its 20 day EMA 2016-05-17 17:09:58 fib1618: and the gold stock A/D lines remain bullish 2016-05-17 17:10:15 fib1618: silver as well 2016-05-17 17:10:43 fib1618: starting to breakout to the upside in the CRB now 2016-05-17 17:10:57 fib1618: 1st time its been above its 200 day EMA in a while 2016-05-17 17:11:11 fib1618: watch energy stocks 2016-05-17 17:11:24 fib1618: as both gold and oil should continue to lead to the upside 2016-05-17 17:11:27 fib1618: speaking of which 2016-05-17 17:11:34 mojave: folks betting on 'no hike' despite FED's protestations... 2016-05-17 17:11:36 fib1618: the TSX Ventures continue strong 2016-05-17 17:11:50 fib1618: it's all lip service 2016-05-17 17:11:56 fib1618: with a purpose, of course 2016-05-17 17:12:14 fib1618: but as commodities continue to strengthen 2016-05-17 17:12:33 fib1618: this suggests that we're getting some economic strength 2016-05-17 17:12:35 fib1618: unless 2016-05-17 17:12:45 fib1618: it's all being driven by excess liquidity 2016-05-17 17:12:58 fib1618: which, in that case, it will eventually pop 2016-05-17 17:13:07 fib1618: once the tray is taken away 2016-05-17 17:13:44 fib1618: 10 year yield trying its best to hold above 1.70% 2016-05-17 17:13:56 fib1618: but money continues to suggest that it won't hold for long 2016-05-17 17:15:00 fib1618: exchanges are mixed 2016-05-17 17:16:10 fib1618: national home prices keep rising 2016-05-17 17:16:16 fib1618: that helps consumer confidence 2016-05-17 17:17:12 fib1618: the US Dollar is range bound between its 20 day and 50 day EMA's 2016-05-17 17:17:57 fib1618: everything seems to be moving sideways...especially the financials 2016-05-17 17:18:30 fib1618: let me check sentiment 2016-05-17 17:19:11 fib1618: 38/57 bull to bear on Mark's indicator 2016-05-17 17:19:41 fib1618: everything continues to point to chop 2016-05-17 17:19:52 fib1618: anything else? 2016-05-17 17:20:04 mojave: not here, tks 2016-05-17 17:20:16 thespookyone: nope 2016-05-17 17:20:38 fib1618: All Ordinaries continues to improve 2016-05-17 17:21:04 fib1618: it should continue to follow the path of the CRB 2016-05-17 17:21:17 mojave: 'should' 2016-05-17 17:21:25 fib1618: it has...and usually does 2016-05-17 17:21:41 mojave: yep, and talk of continued RBA cuts here 2016-05-17 17:21:44 fib1618: it's just the way it works 2016-05-17 17:21:47 fib1618: I heard that in passing 2016-05-17 17:22:05 fib1618: well...if you can't expand economically 2016-05-17 17:22:20 mojave: expand monetarily! 2016-05-17 17:22:21 fib1618: I guess the CB's have learned to prop things up with liquidity until it does 2016-05-17 17:22:26 fib1618: yep 2016-05-17 17:22:37 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else 2016-05-17 17:22:42 fib1618: I'm going to take off 2016-05-17 17:22:51 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days 2016-05-17 17:22:55 mojave: just started 60 day election cycle here so that 'may' have effect on AORD 2016-05-17 17:23:00 mojave: cya 2016-05-17 17:23:05 fib1618: and we'll see what's kickin on Thursday 2016-05-17 17:23:12 fib1618: g'day!
__________________Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977