All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
TW Chat Room > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 5/17/16
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,424
Posted Reply with quote  #1 
2016-05-17 16:00:08 fib1618: good day
2016-05-17 16:00:12 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-05-17 16:01:52 mojave: awesome, hope you're well
2016-05-17 16:03:09 fib1618: doing fine...thanks for asking
2016-05-17 16:03:19 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-05-17 16:04:08 fib1618: ISEE at 56 today
2016-05-17 16:04:17 fib1618: checking the BETS
2016-05-17 16:04:30 mojave: yes, been watching equity p/c volume
2016-05-17 16:04:37 mojave: & sentiment
2016-05-17 16:04:56 fib1618: wow...volume has been huge in ARCA
2016-05-17 16:05:48 fib1618: NAUD now in a Bearish Configuration
2016-05-17 16:06:12 fib1618: +40
2016-05-17 16:06:26 fib1618: so no change from Saturday
2016-05-17 16:06:43 mojave: lots of churn
2016-05-17 16:06:43 fib1618: well...with ISEE as low as it was today
2016-05-17 16:07:02 fib1618: I would expect that we may see the rest of the week as positive going into OPEX
2016-05-17 16:07:25 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-05-17 16:08:20 fib1618: after moving up to a reading of -26 on Monday
2016-05-17 16:08:28 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved slightly lower today
2016-05-17 16:08:41 fib1618: coming in with a reading of -47
2016-05-17 16:08:50 fib1618: no divergence at this point
2016-05-17 16:09:13 fib1618: but it would seem that we're looking to develop a complex bottom in the MCO
2016-05-17 16:09:35 fib1618: looking at the CO components
2016-05-17 16:09:57 fib1618: and the 10% fell lower after its test of its zero line on Monday
2016-05-17 16:10:25 fib1618: with the 5% Trend now just above this same demarcation line between who's in control
2016-05-17 16:11:04 fib1618: chart price support remains at the 10,100 level in the NYA
2016-05-17 16:11:30 fib1618: and though we're trying to hold here
2016-05-17 16:12:36 fib1618: any breakdown below the +500 level in the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM over the next day or so will probably provide the kind of capitulation low we've been looking for
2016-05-17 16:13:10 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-05-17 16:13:35 fib1618: and we see that it actually showed more strength on Monday as it moved to the -18 level
2016-05-17 16:13:50 fib1618: as we settled today with a reading of -34
2016-05-17 16:14:13 fib1618: both of the NYSE Composite breadth MCO components remain above their zero lines
2016-05-17 16:14:46 fib1618: and this would suggest that market liquidity remains ample enough to absorb the current correctional process
2016-05-17 16:15:51 fib1618: this also indicates that the underlying tone of the marketplace remains positive on an intermediate term basis
2016-05-17 16:16:09 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-05-17 16:16:28 fib1618: and it found resistance near the -25 level on Monday before moving lower again today
2016-05-17 16:16:45 fib1618: and with today's reading at -46
2016-05-17 16:17:00 fib1618: is tracking the NYSE Common Stocks very nicely
2016-05-17 16:17:40 fib1618: putting ruler to monitor
2016-05-17 16:18:01 fib1618: and the ongoing declining tops line in the NASDAQ breadth MCO intersects at around the -10 level
2016-05-17 16:19:07 fib1618: but the main focus remains with the blip resistance area that took place on 5/2
2016-05-17 16:19:20 fib1618: for until this area is taken out
2016-05-17 16:19:36 fib1618: the sellers will remain in overall control of the current price structure
2016-05-17 16:20:07 fib1618: moving to the NDX
2016-05-17 16:20:23 fib1618: and the first thing we see is that the NDX breadth MCSUM is now about to move down and through its zero line
2016-05-17 16:20:46 fib1618: so any turn around here by the buyers
2016-05-17 16:20:59 fib1618: that will take us back above the MCO zero line
2016-05-17 16:21:13 fib1618: would then tell us that the majority of the sellers are now out of their positions
2016-05-17 16:21:28 fib1618: and that one side is about to take intermediate term control of prices
2016-05-17 16:22:04 fib1618: 4300 remains good support on the price chart
2016-05-17 16:22:39 fib1618: as the appearance of a symmetrical triangle becomes more prominent in the price pattern structure on a daily basis
2016-05-17 16:23:45 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO is also echoing both the NASDAQ and NYSE CO MCO's
2016-05-17 16:24:09 fib1618: though we did see both a break below the zero line in the SPX 10% Trend today
2016-05-17 16:24:25 fib1618: along with a break below the +750 level in the SPX breadth MCSUM
2016-05-17 16:25:09 fib1618: so for the sellers, this would be an opportune time to really make the buyers feel some hurt
2016-05-17 16:25:57 fib1618: but the odds are a bit better to look for another bounce higher on Wednesday
2016-05-17 16:26:29 fib1618: as we continue to be under "hit and run" rules of a choppy, volatile marketplace
2016-05-17 16:27:05 fib1618: not a lot of help in the OEX breadth MCO data
2016-05-17 16:27:44 fib1618: as it continues to show choppy behavior like the rest of the indices
2016-05-17 16:28:17 fib1618: the 900 price level continues to show good support there
2016-05-17 16:29:49 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO is now back to being highly "oversold"
2016-05-17 16:30:00 fib1618: with a reading today of -77
2016-05-17 16:30:30 fib1618: so far it would seem that we had our expected low on Friday
2016-05-17 16:30:39 fib1618: and it *looks* to backing and filling now
2016-05-17 16:30:45 fib1618: let's see what the MID says
2016-05-17 16:31:33 fib1618: first thing is that we now have bullish divergence in place between price and the MID breadth MCO
2016-05-17 16:32:02 fib1618: with the MID MCO 5% component now challenging its zero line
2016-05-17 16:32:12 fib1618: this would indicate a bounce attempt on Wednesday
2016-05-17 16:32:36 fib1618: while the MID breadth MCSUM is now within range of natural support at the +500 level
2016-05-17 16:32:59 fib1618: 1420 is still support for the pattern structure
2016-05-17 16:33:29 fib1618: we also have bullish divergence now in the SML breadth MCO
2016-05-17 16:33:43 fib1618: and with a reading of -62
2016-05-17 16:34:00 fib1618: this would be strong enough to look for a foundational low to develop
2016-05-17 16:34:28 fib1618: we also we have the price pattern meeting its downside target of 670 today
2016-05-17 16:35:04 fib1618: so we'll see if the small caps once again make a stand and begin to show some leadership to the upside
2016-05-17 16:35:25 fib1618: this, of course, would help in reaffirming that we're likely near an important price low on a general basis
2016-05-17 16:36:03 fib1618: and moving to the TM breadth MCSUM
2016-05-17 16:36:12 fib1618: it moved down and through the +500 level today
2016-05-17 16:36:25 fib1618: but there wasn't too much technical price damage with this break of support
2016-05-17 16:37:06 fib1618: with 21,000 the downside floor if this were to continue to trace out our expected trading range
2016-05-17 16:37:09 fib1618: so...
2016-05-17 16:37:30 fib1618: not a lot of difference between last Thursday and today
2016-05-17 16:38:08 fib1618: though we are getting indications that the MID Caps and SMALL Caps may be all finished with with the selling process
2016-05-17 16:38:08 mojave: FOMC minutes tomorrow I think
2016-05-17 16:38:15 fib1618: thanks
2016-05-17 16:38:51 fib1618: I heard today's excuse for the sell off was because a FED Governor mentioned that there might be 2 or 3 rate increases this year
2016-05-17 16:39:04 fib1618: but as long as money continues to support the interest rate sensitive issues
2016-05-17 16:39:28 fib1618: this doesn't bode well for even one increase, no less, three
2016-05-17 16:40:05 fib1618: and we all know how the market loves excuses to move sharply either higher or lower
2016-05-17 16:40:14 fib1618: it's all in the merchandising
2016-05-17 16:40:16 fib1618: [smile]
2016-05-17 16:40:25 fib1618: let's see how the volume side is doing
2016-05-17 16:41:02 fib1618: sharp sell off in the XLP today
2016-05-17 16:41:18 fib1618: while the XLE breadth MCO has now made it back to its zero line
2016-05-17 16:42:13 fib1618: OK...pullback today in the NYSE CO volume MCO was minimal compared with breadth
2016-05-17 16:42:30 fib1618: this would suggest that we're close to selling exhaustion
2016-05-17 16:42:54 fib1618: the NYSE Composite volume MCO, however, is more in sync with its breadth cousin
2016-05-17 16:43:49 fib1618: both the MCO volume components and the NYSE Composite volume MCSUM are weaker than their breadth cousins
2016-05-17 16:44:05 fib1618: so we'll have to watch that near term
2016-05-17 16:44:35 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is also about to move down and through its zero line near term
2016-05-17 16:44:52 fib1618: and this kind of set up can produce some large moves in this price index
2016-05-17 16:45:04 fib1618: if we find support...a good reflex rally will take place
2016-05-17 16:45:09 fib1618: if we don't find support
2016-05-17 16:45:21 fib1618: then a small "crash like" event could take place
2016-05-17 16:45:59 fib1618: looking at the NDX volume MCO though
2016-05-17 16:46:27 fib1618: and the odds seem to be tilted toward a positive resolution it would seem
2016-05-17 16:47:27 fib1618: both the SPX and OEX volume MCO's are pretty much neutral from last Thursday
2016-05-17 16:47:44 fib1618: while the Dow volume MCSUM is about to move down and through its zero line
2016-05-17 16:48:28 fib1618: as with the breadth data, the MID and SML volume MCO's now have bullish divergence
2016-05-17 16:48:59 fib1618: while the SML volume MCO actually moved to a higher low on Friday
2016-05-17 16:49:29 fib1618: this "whisper" would suggest that the underlying tone of money is beginning to wane on the sell side
2016-05-17 16:50:12 fib1618: and that its possible to see the buyers begin to take a better posture toward this group of issues
2016-05-17 16:50:48 fib1618: and like the majority of the MCO's tonight
2016-05-17 16:51:15 fib1618: the TM volume MCO looks to be coiling within a small symmetrical triangle configuration
2016-05-17 16:51:41 fib1618: and this would suggest indecision by traders overall
2016-05-17 16:51:51 fib1618: so...
2016-05-17 16:52:38 fib1618: the market seems to be stuck between two areas of resistance
2016-05-17 16:52:47 fib1618: and we're beginning to compress
2016-05-17 16:53:09 fib1618: and when these compression points are released
2016-05-17 16:53:27 fib1618: we will usually see strong, purposeful moves in prices
2016-05-17 16:53:42 fib1618: for the bulls...it will likely be short covering like we said last week
2016-05-17 16:54:00 fib1618: for the bears...it will be some sort of surprise that was not expected
2016-05-17 16:54:15 fib1618: given the strength in the interest rate sensitive issues though
2016-05-17 16:54:43 fib1618: one would think that the sellers are beginning to exhaust themselves
2016-05-17 16:55:01 fib1618: and this is where shorts begin to cover out of frustration
2016-05-17 16:55:09 fib1618: and it snowballs from there
2016-05-17 16:55:29 fib1618: we also know that the ISEE numbers have been showing a lot of put buying over the last 10 trading days
2016-05-17 16:55:40 fib1618: and given that we're coming up on this month's expiration
2016-05-17 16:56:06 fib1618: it wouldn't be surprising to see any front month put positions close worthless
2016-05-17 16:56:20 fib1618: like the market loves to do
2016-05-17 16:58:59 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's are fairing
2016-05-17 16:59:39 fib1618: we now have climactic numbers in the OEX and Dow CVI's
2016-05-17 16:59:51 fib1618: so let's look for a price bottom in the next 2 trading days
2016-05-17 17:00:23 fib1618: we'll call the STVO's minimally "oversold" now
2016-05-17 17:00:45 fib1618: but the VTO's remain mixed
2016-05-17 17:01:06 fib1618: with the NDX VTO coming very close to suggesting a price low is in
2016-05-17 17:01:12 fib1618: still
2016-05-17 17:01:51 fib1618: it would seem that we're going to need some additional selling here before we can look for prices to turnaround and begin to trend
2016-05-17 17:02:09 fib1618: NYSE TRIN pretty high at .92
2016-05-17 17:02:38 fib1618: but the Open 10 remains highly "oversold" with a reading of 1.16
2016-05-17 17:03:02 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN also neutral today with a reading of .89
2016-05-17 17:03:27 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2016-05-17 17:03:32 fib1618: so pretty sloppy there
2016-05-17 17:03:44 fib1618: TM TRIN at .99
2016-05-17 17:03:54 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.10
2016-05-17 17:04:17 fib1618: so taking everything into consideration
2016-05-17 17:04:38 fib1618: we might have a turn in the opposite direction on Wednesday
2016-05-17 17:04:56 fib1618: and if we get enough of a move to where the shorts begin to get nervous and cover
2016-05-17 17:05:10 fib1618: it could be another 1% day to the upside
2016-05-17 17:06:04 fib1618: looks like we're stuck moving back and forth for now
2016-05-17 17:06:15 fib1618: so for scalpers and day traders...nirvana
2016-05-17 17:06:56 fib1618: for the bulls..we're on hold
2016-05-17 17:07:08 fib1618: for the bears...still more work to do before they have an upper hand
2016-05-17 17:07:14 fib1618: but like we talked about last week
2016-05-17 17:07:21 fib1618: the NASDAQ is concerning for the bull case
2016-05-17 17:07:30 fib1618: but if the MCSUM zero lines hold
2016-05-17 17:07:53 fib1618: any concern here could just as easily turn into a good buying op
2016-05-17 17:08:11 fib1618: we'll just have to wait and see what the market has to give us
2016-05-17 17:08:21 fib1618: until then...we remain patient
2016-05-17 17:08:25 fib1618: anything else?
2016-05-17 17:08:35 fib1618: I'll look around in the meantime
2016-05-17 17:09:50 fib1618: gold continues to hold above its 20 day EMA
2016-05-17 17:09:58 fib1618: and the gold stock A/D lines remain bullish
2016-05-17 17:10:15 fib1618: silver as well
2016-05-17 17:10:43 fib1618: starting to breakout to the upside in the CRB now
2016-05-17 17:10:57 fib1618: 1st time its been above its 200 day EMA in a while
2016-05-17 17:11:11 fib1618: watch energy stocks
2016-05-17 17:11:24 fib1618: as both gold and oil should continue to lead to the upside
2016-05-17 17:11:27 fib1618: speaking of which
2016-05-17 17:11:34 mojave: folks betting on 'no hike' despite FED's protestations...
2016-05-17 17:11:36 fib1618: the TSX Ventures continue strong
2016-05-17 17:11:50 fib1618: it's all lip service
2016-05-17 17:11:56 fib1618: with a purpose, of course
2016-05-17 17:12:14 fib1618: but as commodities continue to strengthen
2016-05-17 17:12:33 fib1618: this suggests that we're getting some economic strength
2016-05-17 17:12:35 fib1618: unless
2016-05-17 17:12:45 fib1618: it's all being driven by excess liquidity
2016-05-17 17:12:58 fib1618: which, in that case, it will eventually pop
2016-05-17 17:13:07 fib1618: once the tray is taken away
2016-05-17 17:13:44 fib1618: 10 year yield trying its best to hold above 1.70%
2016-05-17 17:13:56 fib1618: but money continues to suggest that it won't hold for long
2016-05-17 17:15:00 fib1618: exchanges are mixed
2016-05-17 17:16:10 fib1618: national home prices keep rising
2016-05-17 17:16:16 fib1618: that helps consumer confidence
2016-05-17 17:17:12 fib1618: the US Dollar is range bound between its 20 day and 50 day EMA's
2016-05-17 17:17:57 fib1618: everything seems to be moving sideways...especially the financials
2016-05-17 17:18:30 fib1618: let me check sentiment
2016-05-17 17:19:11 fib1618: 38/57 bull to bear on Mark's indicator
2016-05-17 17:19:41 fib1618: everything continues to point to chop
2016-05-17 17:19:52 fib1618: anything else?
2016-05-17 17:20:04 mojave: not here, tks
2016-05-17 17:20:16 thespookyone: nope
2016-05-17 17:20:38 fib1618: All Ordinaries continues to improve
2016-05-17 17:21:04 fib1618: it should continue to follow the path of the CRB
2016-05-17 17:21:17 mojave: 'should'
2016-05-17 17:21:25 fib1618: it has...and usually does
2016-05-17 17:21:41 mojave: yep, and talk of continued RBA cuts here
2016-05-17 17:21:44 fib1618: it's just the way it works
2016-05-17 17:21:47 fib1618: I heard that in passing
2016-05-17 17:22:05 fib1618: well...if you can't expand economically
2016-05-17 17:22:20 mojave: expand monetarily!
2016-05-17 17:22:21 fib1618: I guess the CB's have learned to prop things up with liquidity until it does
2016-05-17 17:22:26 fib1618: yep
2016-05-17 17:22:37 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-05-17 17:22:42 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-05-17 17:22:51 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2016-05-17 17:22:55 mojave: just started 60 day election cycle here so that 'may' have effect on AORD
2016-05-17 17:23:00 mojave: cya
2016-05-17 17:23:05 fib1618: and we'll see what's kickin on Thursday
2016-05-17 17:23:12 fib1618: g'day!
__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977
0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:





Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch