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Technical Watch > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 5/17/16
 
 


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fib_1618

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2016-05-17 16:00:08 fib1618: good day
2016-05-17 16:00:12 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-05-17 16:01:52 mojave: awesome, hope you're well
2016-05-17 16:03:09 fib1618: doing fine...thanks for asking
2016-05-17 16:03:19 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-05-17 16:04:08 fib1618: ISEE at 56 today
2016-05-17 16:04:17 fib1618: checking the BETS
2016-05-17 16:04:30 mojave: yes, been watching equity p/c volume
2016-05-17 16:04:37 mojave: & sentiment
2016-05-17 16:04:56 fib1618: wow...volume has been huge in ARCA
2016-05-17 16:05:48 fib1618: NAUD now in a Bearish Configuration
2016-05-17 16:06:12 fib1618: +40
2016-05-17 16:06:26 fib1618: so no change from Saturday
2016-05-17 16:06:43 mojave: lots of churn
2016-05-17 16:06:43 fib1618: well...with ISEE as low as it was today
2016-05-17 16:07:02 fib1618: I would expect that we may see the rest of the week as positive going into OPEX
2016-05-17 16:07:25 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-05-17 16:08:20 fib1618: after moving up to a reading of -26 on Monday
2016-05-17 16:08:28 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved slightly lower today
2016-05-17 16:08:41 fib1618: coming in with a reading of -47
2016-05-17 16:08:50 fib1618: no divergence at this point
2016-05-17 16:09:13 fib1618: but it would seem that we're looking to develop a complex bottom in the MCO
2016-05-17 16:09:35 fib1618: looking at the CO components
2016-05-17 16:09:57 fib1618: and the 10% fell lower after its test of its zero line on Monday
2016-05-17 16:10:25 fib1618: with the 5% Trend now just above this same demarcation line between who's in control
2016-05-17 16:11:04 fib1618: chart price support remains at the 10,100 level in the NYA
2016-05-17 16:11:30 fib1618: and though we're trying to hold here
2016-05-17 16:12:36 fib1618: any breakdown below the +500 level in the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM over the next day or so will probably provide the kind of capitulation low we've been looking for
2016-05-17 16:13:10 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-05-17 16:13:35 fib1618: and we see that it actually showed more strength on Monday as it moved to the -18 level
2016-05-17 16:13:50 fib1618: as we settled today with a reading of -34
2016-05-17 16:14:13 fib1618: both of the NYSE Composite breadth MCO components remain above their zero lines
2016-05-17 16:14:46 fib1618: and this would suggest that market liquidity remains ample enough to absorb the current correctional process
2016-05-17 16:15:51 fib1618: this also indicates that the underlying tone of the marketplace remains positive on an intermediate term basis
2016-05-17 16:16:09 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-05-17 16:16:28 fib1618: and it found resistance near the -25 level on Monday before moving lower again today
2016-05-17 16:16:45 fib1618: and with today's reading at -46
2016-05-17 16:17:00 fib1618: is tracking the NYSE Common Stocks very nicely
2016-05-17 16:17:40 fib1618: putting ruler to monitor
2016-05-17 16:18:01 fib1618: and the ongoing declining tops line in the NASDAQ breadth MCO intersects at around the -10 level
2016-05-17 16:19:07 fib1618: but the main focus remains with the blip resistance area that took place on 5/2
2016-05-17 16:19:20 fib1618: for until this area is taken out
2016-05-17 16:19:36 fib1618: the sellers will remain in overall control of the current price structure
2016-05-17 16:20:07 fib1618: moving to the NDX
2016-05-17 16:20:23 fib1618: and the first thing we see is that the NDX breadth MCSUM is now about to move down and through its zero line
2016-05-17 16:20:46 fib1618: so any turn around here by the buyers
2016-05-17 16:20:59 fib1618: that will take us back above the MCO zero line
2016-05-17 16:21:13 fib1618: would then tell us that the majority of the sellers are now out of their positions
2016-05-17 16:21:28 fib1618: and that one side is about to take intermediate term control of prices
2016-05-17 16:22:04 fib1618: 4300 remains good support on the price chart
2016-05-17 16:22:39 fib1618: as the appearance of a symmetrical triangle becomes more prominent in the price pattern structure on a daily basis
2016-05-17 16:23:45 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO is also echoing both the NASDAQ and NYSE CO MCO's
2016-05-17 16:24:09 fib1618: though we did see both a break below the zero line in the SPX 10% Trend today
2016-05-17 16:24:25 fib1618: along with a break below the +750 level in the SPX breadth MCSUM
2016-05-17 16:25:09 fib1618: so for the sellers, this would be an opportune time to really make the buyers feel some hurt
2016-05-17 16:25:57 fib1618: but the odds are a bit better to look for another bounce higher on Wednesday
2016-05-17 16:26:29 fib1618: as we continue to be under "hit and run" rules of a choppy, volatile marketplace
2016-05-17 16:27:05 fib1618: not a lot of help in the OEX breadth MCO data
2016-05-17 16:27:44 fib1618: as it continues to show choppy behavior like the rest of the indices
2016-05-17 16:28:17 fib1618: the 900 price level continues to show good support there
2016-05-17 16:29:49 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO is now back to being highly "oversold"
2016-05-17 16:30:00 fib1618: with a reading today of -77
2016-05-17 16:30:30 fib1618: so far it would seem that we had our expected low on Friday
2016-05-17 16:30:39 fib1618: and it *looks* to backing and filling now
2016-05-17 16:30:45 fib1618: let's see what the MID says
2016-05-17 16:31:33 fib1618: first thing is that we now have bullish divergence in place between price and the MID breadth MCO
2016-05-17 16:32:02 fib1618: with the MID MCO 5% component now challenging its zero line
2016-05-17 16:32:12 fib1618: this would indicate a bounce attempt on Wednesday
2016-05-17 16:32:36 fib1618: while the MID breadth MCSUM is now within range of natural support at the +500 level
2016-05-17 16:32:59 fib1618: 1420 is still support for the pattern structure
2016-05-17 16:33:29 fib1618: we also have bullish divergence now in the SML breadth MCO
2016-05-17 16:33:43 fib1618: and with a reading of -62
2016-05-17 16:34:00 fib1618: this would be strong enough to look for a foundational low to develop
2016-05-17 16:34:28 fib1618: we also we have the price pattern meeting its downside target of 670 today
2016-05-17 16:35:04 fib1618: so we'll see if the small caps once again make a stand and begin to show some leadership to the upside
2016-05-17 16:35:25 fib1618: this, of course, would help in reaffirming that we're likely near an important price low on a general basis
2016-05-17 16:36:03 fib1618: and moving to the TM breadth MCSUM
2016-05-17 16:36:12 fib1618: it moved down and through the +500 level today
2016-05-17 16:36:25 fib1618: but there wasn't too much technical price damage with this break of support
2016-05-17 16:37:06 fib1618: with 21,000 the downside floor if this were to continue to trace out our expected trading range
2016-05-17 16:37:09 fib1618: so...
2016-05-17 16:37:30 fib1618: not a lot of difference between last Thursday and today
2016-05-17 16:38:08 fib1618: though we are getting indications that the MID Caps and SMALL Caps may be all finished with with the selling process
2016-05-17 16:38:08 mojave: FOMC minutes tomorrow I think
2016-05-17 16:38:15 fib1618: thanks
2016-05-17 16:38:51 fib1618: I heard today's excuse for the sell off was because a FED Governor mentioned that there might be 2 or 3 rate increases this year
2016-05-17 16:39:04 fib1618: but as long as money continues to support the interest rate sensitive issues
2016-05-17 16:39:28 fib1618: this doesn't bode well for even one increase, no less, three
2016-05-17 16:40:05 fib1618: and we all know how the market loves excuses to move sharply either higher or lower
2016-05-17 16:40:14 fib1618: it's all in the merchandising
2016-05-17 16:40:16 fib1618: [smile]
2016-05-17 16:40:25 fib1618: let's see how the volume side is doing
2016-05-17 16:41:02 fib1618: sharp sell off in the XLP today
2016-05-17 16:41:18 fib1618: while the XLE breadth MCO has now made it back to its zero line
2016-05-17 16:42:13 fib1618: OK...pullback today in the NYSE CO volume MCO was minimal compared with breadth
2016-05-17 16:42:30 fib1618: this would suggest that we're close to selling exhaustion
2016-05-17 16:42:54 fib1618: the NYSE Composite volume MCO, however, is more in sync with its breadth cousin
2016-05-17 16:43:49 fib1618: both the MCO volume components and the NYSE Composite volume MCSUM are weaker than their breadth cousins
2016-05-17 16:44:05 fib1618: so we'll have to watch that near term
2016-05-17 16:44:35 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is also about to move down and through its zero line near term
2016-05-17 16:44:52 fib1618: and this kind of set up can produce some large moves in this price index
2016-05-17 16:45:04 fib1618: if we find support...a good reflex rally will take place
2016-05-17 16:45:09 fib1618: if we don't find support
2016-05-17 16:45:21 fib1618: then a small "crash like" event could take place
2016-05-17 16:45:59 fib1618: looking at the NDX volume MCO though
2016-05-17 16:46:27 fib1618: and the odds seem to be tilted toward a positive resolution it would seem
2016-05-17 16:47:27 fib1618: both the SPX and OEX volume MCO's are pretty much neutral from last Thursday
2016-05-17 16:47:44 fib1618: while the Dow volume MCSUM is about to move down and through its zero line
2016-05-17 16:48:28 fib1618: as with the breadth data, the MID and SML volume MCO's now have bullish divergence
2016-05-17 16:48:59 fib1618: while the SML volume MCO actually moved to a higher low on Friday
2016-05-17 16:49:29 fib1618: this "whisper" would suggest that the underlying tone of money is beginning to wane on the sell side
2016-05-17 16:50:12 fib1618: and that its possible to see the buyers begin to take a better posture toward this group of issues
2016-05-17 16:50:48 fib1618: and like the majority of the MCO's tonight
2016-05-17 16:51:15 fib1618: the TM volume MCO looks to be coiling within a small symmetrical triangle configuration
2016-05-17 16:51:41 fib1618: and this would suggest indecision by traders overall
2016-05-17 16:51:51 fib1618: so...
2016-05-17 16:52:38 fib1618: the market seems to be stuck between two areas of resistance
2016-05-17 16:52:47 fib1618: and we're beginning to compress
2016-05-17 16:53:09 fib1618: and when these compression points are released
2016-05-17 16:53:27 fib1618: we will usually see strong, purposeful moves in prices
2016-05-17 16:53:42 fib1618: for the bulls...it will likely be short covering like we said last week
2016-05-17 16:54:00 fib1618: for the bears...it will be some sort of surprise that was not expected
2016-05-17 16:54:15 fib1618: given the strength in the interest rate sensitive issues though
2016-05-17 16:54:43 fib1618: one would think that the sellers are beginning to exhaust themselves
2016-05-17 16:55:01 fib1618: and this is where shorts begin to cover out of frustration
2016-05-17 16:55:09 fib1618: and it snowballs from there
2016-05-17 16:55:29 fib1618: we also know that the ISEE numbers have been showing a lot of put buying over the last 10 trading days
2016-05-17 16:55:40 fib1618: and given that we're coming up on this month's expiration
2016-05-17 16:56:06 fib1618: it wouldn't be surprising to see any front month put positions close worthless
2016-05-17 16:56:20 fib1618: like the market loves to do
2016-05-17 16:58:59 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's are fairing
2016-05-17 16:59:39 fib1618: we now have climactic numbers in the OEX and Dow CVI's
2016-05-17 16:59:51 fib1618: so let's look for a price bottom in the next 2 trading days
2016-05-17 17:00:23 fib1618: we'll call the STVO's minimally "oversold" now
2016-05-17 17:00:45 fib1618: but the VTO's remain mixed
2016-05-17 17:01:06 fib1618: with the NDX VTO coming very close to suggesting a price low is in
2016-05-17 17:01:12 fib1618: still
2016-05-17 17:01:51 fib1618: it would seem that we're going to need some additional selling here before we can look for prices to turnaround and begin to trend
2016-05-17 17:02:09 fib1618: NYSE TRIN pretty high at .92
2016-05-17 17:02:38 fib1618: but the Open 10 remains highly "oversold" with a reading of 1.16
2016-05-17 17:03:02 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN also neutral today with a reading of .89
2016-05-17 17:03:27 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2016-05-17 17:03:32 fib1618: so pretty sloppy there
2016-05-17 17:03:44 fib1618: TM TRIN at .99
2016-05-17 17:03:54 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.10
2016-05-17 17:04:17 fib1618: so taking everything into consideration
2016-05-17 17:04:38 fib1618: we might have a turn in the opposite direction on Wednesday
2016-05-17 17:04:56 fib1618: and if we get enough of a move to where the shorts begin to get nervous and cover
2016-05-17 17:05:10 fib1618: it could be another 1% day to the upside
2016-05-17 17:06:04 fib1618: looks like we're stuck moving back and forth for now
2016-05-17 17:06:15 fib1618: so for scalpers and day traders...nirvana
2016-05-17 17:06:56 fib1618: for the bulls..we're on hold
2016-05-17 17:07:08 fib1618: for the bears...still more work to do before they have an upper hand
2016-05-17 17:07:14 fib1618: but like we talked about last week
2016-05-17 17:07:21 fib1618: the NASDAQ is concerning for the bull case
2016-05-17 17:07:30 fib1618: but if the MCSUM zero lines hold
2016-05-17 17:07:53 fib1618: any concern here could just as easily turn into a good buying op
2016-05-17 17:08:11 fib1618: we'll just have to wait and see what the market has to give us
2016-05-17 17:08:21 fib1618: until then...we remain patient
2016-05-17 17:08:25 fib1618: anything else?
2016-05-17 17:08:35 fib1618: I'll look around in the meantime
2016-05-17 17:09:50 fib1618: gold continues to hold above its 20 day EMA
2016-05-17 17:09:58 fib1618: and the gold stock A/D lines remain bullish
2016-05-17 17:10:15 fib1618: silver as well
2016-05-17 17:10:43 fib1618: starting to breakout to the upside in the CRB now
2016-05-17 17:10:57 fib1618: 1st time its been above its 200 day EMA in a while
2016-05-17 17:11:11 fib1618: watch energy stocks
2016-05-17 17:11:24 fib1618: as both gold and oil should continue to lead to the upside
2016-05-17 17:11:27 fib1618: speaking of which
2016-05-17 17:11:34 mojave: folks betting on 'no hike' despite FED's protestations...
2016-05-17 17:11:36 fib1618: the TSX Ventures continue strong
2016-05-17 17:11:50 fib1618: it's all lip service
2016-05-17 17:11:56 fib1618: with a purpose, of course
2016-05-17 17:12:14 fib1618: but as commodities continue to strengthen
2016-05-17 17:12:33 fib1618: this suggests that we're getting some economic strength
2016-05-17 17:12:35 fib1618: unless
2016-05-17 17:12:45 fib1618: it's all being driven by excess liquidity
2016-05-17 17:12:58 fib1618: which, in that case, it will eventually pop
2016-05-17 17:13:07 fib1618: once the tray is taken away
2016-05-17 17:13:44 fib1618: 10 year yield trying its best to hold above 1.70%
2016-05-17 17:13:56 fib1618: but money continues to suggest that it won't hold for long
2016-05-17 17:15:00 fib1618: exchanges are mixed
2016-05-17 17:16:10 fib1618: national home prices keep rising
2016-05-17 17:16:16 fib1618: that helps consumer confidence
2016-05-17 17:17:12 fib1618: the US Dollar is range bound between its 20 day and 50 day EMA's
2016-05-17 17:17:57 fib1618: everything seems to be moving sideways...especially the financials
2016-05-17 17:18:30 fib1618: let me check sentiment
2016-05-17 17:19:11 fib1618: 38/57 bull to bear on Mark's indicator
2016-05-17 17:19:41 fib1618: everything continues to point to chop
2016-05-17 17:19:52 fib1618: anything else?
2016-05-17 17:20:04 mojave: not here, tks
2016-05-17 17:20:16 thespookyone: nope
2016-05-17 17:20:38 fib1618: All Ordinaries continues to improve
2016-05-17 17:21:04 fib1618: it should continue to follow the path of the CRB
2016-05-17 17:21:17 mojave: 'should'
2016-05-17 17:21:25 fib1618: it has...and usually does
2016-05-17 17:21:41 mojave: yep, and talk of continued RBA cuts here
2016-05-17 17:21:44 fib1618: it's just the way it works
2016-05-17 17:21:47 fib1618: I heard that in passing
2016-05-17 17:22:05 fib1618: well...if you can't expand economically
2016-05-17 17:22:20 mojave: expand monetarily!
2016-05-17 17:22:21 fib1618: I guess the CB's have learned to prop things up with liquidity until it does
2016-05-17 17:22:26 fib1618: yep
2016-05-17 17:22:37 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-05-17 17:22:42 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-05-17 17:22:51 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2016-05-17 17:22:55 mojave: just started 60 day election cycle here so that 'may' have effect on AORD
2016-05-17 17:23:00 mojave: cya
2016-05-17 17:23:05 fib1618: and we'll see what's kickin on Thursday
2016-05-17 17:23:12 fib1618: g'day!
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