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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2014-05-14 16:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-05-14 16:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-05-14 16:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-05-14 16:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get DP up then and get going
2014-05-14 16:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after testing the zero line on Tuesday
2014-05-14 16:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO wasn't able to find any takers from the buy side
2014-05-14 16:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and moved sharply lower today
2014-05-14 16:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finishing with a -26 reading
2014-05-14 16:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also got a crossover sell signal with the CO MCO components
2014-05-14 16:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the 5% Trend still remains above its zero line suggesting that today's pullback was "corrective behavior"
2014-05-14 16:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today's down close provided a snapback to what was the previous prices highs in the NYA
2014-05-14 16:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor
2014-05-14 16:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks as though we perceptively broke below the accelerated rising bottoms line on the CO MCO
2014-05-14 16:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we still remain above the lows of early last week
2014-05-14 16:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-05-14 16:11:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it too moved back below its zero line today
2014-05-14 16:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but does remain above its rising bottoms line
2014-05-14 16:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2014-05-14 16:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the near term bottom above bottom created last week
2014-05-14 16:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking that the components here though
2014-05-14 16:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we remain well above the zero line at this time on both the 10% and 5% trends
2014-05-14 16:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this provides us with the idea that suggests that today was more of a shake out...a rally failure of sorts
2014-05-14 16:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the non confirmations we saw yesterday between the short term trends of volume (MCO's) in relation to their breadth cousins
2014-05-14 16:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something in which we gave until Thursday to remedy...but it appears that this reset took place sooner than later
2014-05-14 16:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is a good thing for the bulls
2014-05-14 16:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the quicker that this kind of technical phenomenon takes place, the more strength that's implied
2014-05-14 16:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the classic Elliott irregular flat formation
2014-05-14 16:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which does its best to shake the weak hands from the trend so that it can proceed further
2014-05-14 16:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now the caveat here is...
2014-05-14 16:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we briefly touched upon yesterday
2014-05-14 16:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the sellers continue to overwhelm the degree in which money is moving either in or out of the market to the point in which our textural bottom above bottom patterns we have on the various MCO's are then violated
2014-05-14 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then prices will certainly break their own support levels as well
2014-05-14 16:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now is the time in which the buyers must step in
2014-05-14 16:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to provide the support needed to carry the ball down the field and not give it up "on downs" [smile]
2014-05-14 16:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved sharply lower today
2014-05-14 16:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: confirming the weakness we saw yesterday between this MCO and it's components
2014-05-14 16:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has provided a nice gap to the downside in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2014-05-14 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need to check something - one sec
2014-05-14 16:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now visually
2014-05-14 16:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with this ongoing negative internal data that we're seeing here with both the NASDAQ breadth MCO and MCSUM
2014-05-14 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we are in the midst of forming some sort of head and shoulders top in the NASDAQ Composite that would be triggered on any break of the rising bottoms line seen on the MCO
2014-05-14 16:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: daily volume wise
2014-05-14 16:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a perfect pattern
2014-05-14 16:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it does "fit"
2014-05-14 16:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with right shoulder volume running about the same at the head
2014-05-14 16:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is something that needs to be addressed near term
2014-05-14 16:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the neckline is broken on the NASDAQ
2014-05-14 16:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside target would be...
2014-05-14 16:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: around the 3500 level...or about 500 points
2014-05-14 16:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's "something different" that does need our attention
2014-05-14 16:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then when we move to the NDX breadth MCO and MCSUM
2014-05-14 16:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in no way are they complimenting this kind of forecast at this time
2014-05-14 16:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though that could change in a hurry if the NDX breadth MCO breaks down here
2014-05-14 16:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as lower lows would then push the NDX breadth MCSUM lower from just below the +350 level after finding support at around the zero line
2014-05-14 16:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so an extended variation of Summation Failure could result
2014-05-14 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it is important for the bulls to be able to push this MCSUM to above the early April highs
2014-05-14 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this would cancel out this kind of scenario
2014-05-14 16:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a near term top beneath a top here could be enough to put this kind of bearish twist in motion
2014-05-14 16:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, again, it's something for us to watch for
2014-05-14 16:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snap back to the old price highs now complete in the SPX
2014-05-14 16:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we remain in a corrective sequence with the SPX breadth MCO now below its zero line while the components remain above theirs
2014-05-14 16:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the Elliottician's out there
2014-05-14 16:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to consider that with the small caps and NASDAQ under performing on this rally from the mid April lows
2014-05-14 16:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a clear 3 waves down into these same April lows
2014-05-14 16:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could indeed be a larger "B" wave that's been completed
2014-05-14 16:31:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that wave "C" lower started today
2014-05-14 16:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is indeed the case
2014-05-14 16:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should not see a low below the mid April spike seen on the SPX breadth MCO chart
2014-05-14 16:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: basically the same kind of situation with the OEX breadth MCO and MCSUM data as with the SPX
2014-05-14 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as the Dow data
2014-05-14 16:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah oh
2014-05-14 16:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO moved to its lowest level in the last 3 weeks
2014-05-14 16:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's not a good thing
2014-05-14 16:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though we remain corrective for now
2014-05-14 16:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this breakdown in the short term trend of money in the MID is our first real shot across the bow of the bull ship
2014-05-14 16:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we get to the SML breadth MCO
2014-05-14 16:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we did not move to lower lows as yet
2014-05-14 16:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however it was enough to move the SML breadth MCSUM below the -250 level
2014-05-14 16:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2014-05-14 16:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: below its recent horizontal lows
2014-05-14 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the SML breadth MCO does break to new lows on Thursday
2014-05-14 16:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then be a technical breakdown that could create a change in trend
2014-05-14 16:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more specifically
2014-05-14 16:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to see prices close below horizontal support at the 625 level
2014-05-14 16:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...more like 620
2014-05-14 16:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me bring up a chart to see what the number is
2014-05-14 16:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 620 closing...614 intraday
2014-05-14 16:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO also moved back below its zero line today
2014-05-14 16:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we continue to hold support on the TM breadth MCSUM at this time
2014-05-14 16:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-05-14 16:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a pretty good day for the bears
2014-05-14 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who wound up slapping the bulls around a little harder in their attempt to take longer term control of the market
2014-05-14 16:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls will now need to step in with both hands, here and NOW, or they could be looking at a multi month correction, if not an all out change in trend, on an intermediate term basis
2014-05-14 16:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll call that for at least a couple of months
2014-05-14 16:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll just have to wait and see if it's triggered first before can have any real sense of what should be expected with such a turn
2014-05-14 16:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors and the XLY breadth MCO
2014-05-14 16:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that the rhythm of the market is quite dramatic
2014-05-14 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with pushes in one direction and then quickly followed by the same kind of amplitude in strength in the opposite direction
2014-05-14 16:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of greater concern here
2014-05-14 16:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the XLY breadth MCSUM is showing all the signs of an Summation Failure pattern
2014-05-14 16:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a zero line test and then only able to move this MCSUM back up to the +250 level
2014-05-14 16:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we have not only natural resistance
2014-05-14 16:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also have horizontal pattern resistance from early April
2014-05-14 16:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price pattern wise
2014-05-14 16:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of choppy, lethargic behavior, almost always leads to a downside resolution
2014-05-14 16:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we remain distant from this sector as we have for the better part of the last month
2014-05-14 16:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO continues to move sideways pretty much in and around its zero line
2014-05-14 16:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except for 2 areas of where brief shake outs have taken place over the last couple of months
2014-05-14 16:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no strong opinion here technically though a close under $43.75 might be a trigger to lighten up
2014-05-14 16:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO is now showing some wear and tear over the last week
2014-05-14 16:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLE breadth MCSUM is attempting to find support at the +1250 level
2014-05-14 16:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one price objective has now been reached after hitting the 95 level last week
2014-05-14 16:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still have another upside target of around the $100 that's still out there yet to be met
2014-05-14 16:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the XLE breadth MCSUM still well above the +1000 level
2014-05-14 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's still a very good chance of our meeting this target even if the MCSUM begins to decline from here
2014-05-14 16:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: corrective activity remains with the XLF breadth MCO
2014-05-14 16:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLF is finding it hard going in breaking above the +1000 level
2014-05-14 16:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will this be the last time that we'll see this challenge?
2014-05-14 16:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we follow through on Thursday to the downside, generally speaking, most likely
2014-05-14 16:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV price structure continues to look like it's attempting to bottom here
2014-05-14 16:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLV breadth MCSUM now directly challenging its April highs
2014-05-14 16:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're able to move above this level in the next day or so
2014-05-14 16:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then clear the way for this sector to move to new price highs
2014-05-14 16:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is only a $1.50 away
2014-05-14 16:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO did not confirm Monday's new highs
2014-05-14 16:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now its suffering a rally failure
2014-05-14 16:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that, at this point, serves as a reset internally and a snapback to the old price pattern highs
2014-05-14 16:57:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break below the spike lows of earlier this month, however, would not be a positive for the bullish case
2014-05-14 16:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhh....
2014-05-14 16:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's also be careful
2014-05-14 16:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember that this Friday is OPEX
2014-05-14 16:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and many positions were either rolled over today or dumped
2014-05-14 16:58:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will be interesting
2014-05-14 16:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not to take away from today's failure
2014-05-14 16:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not saying that OPEX is the cause
2014-05-14 16:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only that might be a "thumb on the scale" that could produce today's internal configurations
2014-05-14 16:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO and components continue to look corrective
2014-05-14 17:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our window now open for a possible tradable bottom in the precious metals
2014-05-14 17:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll watch to see if we start seeing some conviction with this sector near term that would help compliment this expectation
2014-05-14 17:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a lot to say about the XLK as it continues to meander sideways by and large
2014-05-14 17:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we finally saw a breakdown in the XLU breadth MCO last week
2014-05-14 17:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the 5% component still above its zero line
2014-05-14 17:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call this a well deserved correctional sequence
2014-05-14 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where prices should hold the $42 level for now
2014-05-14 17:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll more than likely see new all time highs in the XLU before any change in trend will be noted
2014-05-14 17:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-05-14 17:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market continues to wrestle between bull and bear
2014-05-14 17:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the bulls continue to hold the upper hand with the intermediate term trend of money flow remains buoyant enough to provide a price cushion below current levels
2014-05-14 17:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if not careful
2014-05-14 17:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the longer than average run that the buyers have had over the last 18 months in the MCSUM's
2014-05-14 17:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have talked about in the past
2014-05-14 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might now be time for a longer correctional sequence to compliment the amount of time that we've seen all of the breadth MCSUM's above their zero lines by remaining below these same lines of neutrality to bring back some better longer term balance
2014-05-14 17:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are fairly neutral here
2014-05-14 17:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are slightly on the "overbought" side
2014-05-14 17:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the NDX STVO is better to be called neutral
2014-05-14 17:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are not showing much in the rate of decay here right now
2014-05-14 17:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we shouldn't expect much for another day or so for either side
2014-05-14 17:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.25
2014-05-14 17:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08
2014-05-14 17:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still "oversold" there
2014-05-14 17:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2014-05-14 17:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that we'll see back to back follow through days to the downside
2014-05-14 17:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.16
2014-05-14 17:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95
2014-05-14 17:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.44
2014-05-14 17:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.07
2014-05-14 17:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: about the same as the NYSE
2014-05-14 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-05-14 17:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall
2014-05-14 17:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation that a quick pullback because of yesterday's non uniform confirmations was triggered today
2014-05-14 17:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at this point
2014-05-14 17:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're looking at a small rally failure....a simple reset in the relationship between breadth and price...so that the bulls can attempt to regroup and try again to bid prices above the current consolidation patterns
2014-05-14 17:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM's of the large caps still well above their zero lines
2014-05-14 17:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any near term follow through of a break in the MCO support should only allow prices to retest their previous low points
2014-05-14 17:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where any hard reversal to the upside should be accompanied by great amplitude in both breadth and volume where prices can reach "escape velocity" up and away from this same high level price consolidation
2014-05-14 17:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what's on the economic menu for Thursday
2014-05-14 17:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: futures are flat
2014-05-14 17:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYAD was less than 2:1 negative
2014-05-14 17:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not a lot of downside conviction today
2014-05-14 17:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was better for the sellers on the NAAD which came close to 3:1 negative
2014-05-14 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of economic data on Thursday
2014-05-14 17:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CPI
2014-05-14 17:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: jobless claims
2014-05-14 17:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: industrial production
2014-05-14 17:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: housing survey
2014-05-14 17:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Yellen speaks tomorrow night
2014-05-14 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no telling what might be the eventual trigger here
2014-05-14 17:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's time to pony up for both sides
2014-05-14 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and may the best side win control
2014-05-14 17:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-05-14 17:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BETS is at +50
2014-05-14 17:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no change from yesterday
2014-05-14 17:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could be a bullish whisper
2014-05-14 17:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: equity P/C ratios are finally leveling off as more traders are buying puts now
2014-05-14 17:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the OEX traders are buying calls again
2014-05-14 17:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow - AAII sentiment is a toss up at 28% for both sides
2014-05-14 17:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of bears with Mark's Wall Street sentiment survey
2014-05-14 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 50% bears and 20% bulls as of last weekend
2014-05-14 17:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the week before the rally...it was 55% bears and 10% bulls
2014-05-14 17:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll check out the sectors on Thursday
2014-05-14 17:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else on your minds...any ideas here??
2014-05-14 17:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then we'll call it a day
2014-05-14 17:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great evening
2014-05-14 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again in less than 22 hours from now
2014-05-14 17:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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