All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,529
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-05-10 16:00:53 fib1618: good day
2016-05-10 16:00:56 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-05-10 16:01:11 mojave: fine tks, hope you are as well
2016-05-10 16:02:51 fib1618: doing fine...thanks for asking
2016-05-10 16:03:34 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-05-10 16:04:43 thespookyone: When  look at the charts in general, the shape of the moves off the bottom look pretty good to me
2016-05-10 16:05:21 fib1618: well...we seem to be following a constructive technical path so far
2016-05-10 16:05:29 fib1618: I just saw that we had a nice up day today
2016-05-10 16:05:33 fib1618: let me check breadth
2016-05-10 16:05:53 fib1618: 3.28:1
2016-05-10 16:06:09 fib1618: so we've had our reflex off the lows of last week
2016-05-10 16:06:30 fib1618: let's look then and see if we have zero line snapbacks close to completion or not
2016-05-10 16:07:02 fib1618: after a small point change on Monday
2016-05-10 16:07:12 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO rocketed higher today
2016-05-10 16:07:21 fib1618: ending with a reading of -9
2016-05-10 16:07:30 fib1618: so our "to or towards" the zero line is minimally met
2016-05-10 16:07:43 fib1618: as we know all too well
2016-05-10 16:08:12 fib1618: what will be important over the next day or so is to take out the blip resistance high that we saw last Monday
2016-05-10 16:08:25 fib1618: and then we will know that our price base will be intact
2016-05-10 16:08:39 fib1618: notice too on the NYA price chart
2016-05-10 16:09:06 fib1618: how we have now rallied nicely once we tested the old price highs seen in late March
2016-05-10 16:09:28 fib1618: so we've had positive outcome of this technical snapback
2016-05-10 16:09:48 fib1618: and now we'll likely move sideways in our expected trading range for a week or so
2016-05-10 16:10:13 fib1618: having met the downside price target last week at around 10,250
2016-05-10 16:10:33 fib1618: with the ceiling of the range at about 10,600
2016-05-10 16:11:00 fib1618: so any close above last week's reaction high in the CO MCO
2016-05-10 16:11:13 fib1618: will then present us with the next challenge of the zero line
2016-05-10 16:11:56 fib1618: with the ultimate challenge of the declining tops line that we can draw between the early March and mid April highs
2016-05-10 16:12:26 fib1618: which, interestingly enough, comes in at around the +10 level
2016-05-10 16:12:37 fib1618: but first things first
2016-05-10 16:12:53 fib1618: looking at the CO MCO components
2016-05-10 16:13:00 fib1618: and both are back above their zero line
2016-05-10 16:13:20 fib1618: but the 10% has snapped back now to the 5% Trend
2016-05-10 16:13:38 fib1618: so the technical expectation here, near term, is for a pull back to take place
2016-05-10 16:13:52 fib1618: we'll have to see what the composite has to say about this next
2016-05-10 16:14:07 fib1618: also of note
2016-05-10 16:14:26 fib1618: is that we are currently challenging the lows of April in the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2016-05-10 16:15:20 fib1618: so any sign of strength here near term, where we break above the zero line and the declining tops line in the CO MCO, would be highly bullish event as we move forward
2016-05-10 16:15:25 fib1618: speaking of moving forward
2016-05-10 16:15:37 fib1618: let's take a look at the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-05-10 16:15:54 fib1618: and here we wound up with a -8 reading today
2016-05-10 16:16:05 fib1618: so the CO and Composite MCO's are in sync right now
2016-05-10 16:16:47 fib1618: as well are the Composite MCO components as far as the relationship of the 10% and 5% Trends
2016-05-10 16:16:55 fib1618: our big difference though
2016-05-10 16:17:01 fib1618: is with the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-05-10 16:17:17 fib1618: which is attempting to find natural support at the +1000 level
2016-05-10 16:17:47 fib1618: and maybe 25 to 50 data points from challenging its April lows
2016-05-10 16:18:14 fib1618: so the interest rate sensitive issues remain with a nice amount of liquidity right now
2016-05-10 16:18:20 fib1618: and as long as this continues
2016-05-10 16:18:42 fib1618: this should continue to help buoy market prices for the short term
2016-05-10 16:19:14 fib1618: note here that the reaction highs of last Monday lie at the zero line itself
2016-05-10 16:19:24 fib1618: with the declining tops line intersecting at around the +5 level
2016-05-10 16:19:48 fib1618: in other words
2016-05-10 16:20:21 fib1618: it's going to take another 3:1 + positive plurality now at this time to break above all 3 of these resistance points
2016-05-10 16:20:27 fib1618: so something to watch for tomorrow
2016-05-10 16:20:43 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-05-10 16:20:58 fib1618: and it's only been able to snapback to the -19 level
2016-05-10 16:21:46 fib1618: and has the same kind of challenges in front of it if it's going to be able to secure a price bottom from last Thursday
2016-05-10 16:22:15 fib1618: we also note here that the 4700 level held price support like magic
2016-05-10 16:22:55 fib1618: and we then broke above the accelerated declining tops line today
2016-05-10 16:23:22 fib1618: so all we need now is for a close above last Monday's highs and our price base will be set
2016-05-10 16:24:12 fib1618: with the declining tops line here right around the NASDAQ MCO zero line
2016-05-10 16:24:30 fib1618: also of importance for the near term
2016-05-10 16:25:09 fib1618: is that both the 10% and 5% components of the NASDAQ breadth MCO have met their obligations of a snapback of to or toward their zero lines
2016-05-10 16:25:31 fib1618: so the next day or so look to be somewhat important from a couple of angles
2016-05-10 16:25:41 fib1618: and viola
2016-05-10 16:25:59 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO did, in fact, see an aggressive snapback to its zero line
2016-05-10 16:26:16 fib1618: and finishing today with a reading of +14
2016-05-10 16:26:31 fib1618: which is above last Monday's reflex and the zero line
2016-05-10 16:26:47 fib1618: this then suggests that the broader NASDAQ will see some follow through on Wednesday
2016-05-10 16:27:11 fib1618: where how and where it closes will give the important information that we've been alluding to today
2016-05-10 16:27:43 fib1618: looking at the NDX breadth MCO components
2016-05-10 16:27:54 fib1618: and we generated a crossover buy signal today
2016-05-10 16:28:06 fib1618: so, near term, this index has now become positive again
2016-05-10 16:28:21 fib1618: and that last week's price lows are likely to hold for a while
2016-05-10 16:28:51 fib1618: hopefully there was some buying in this index last week by subscribers when prices were at wholesale
2016-05-10 16:29:16 fib1618: upside target now for the NDX near term is 4460
2016-05-10 16:29:48 fib1618: and if the NDX breadth MCO is able to break above the mid April highs
2016-05-10 16:30:20 fib1618: this will then push the price action to close the downside gap seen at the 4500 level two weeks ago
2016-05-10 16:30:37 fib1618: and...
2016-05-10 16:30:46 fib1618: we did break above the declining tops line today in the NDX
2016-05-10 16:31:02 fib1618: so we could see a snapback to both this line and the zero line on Wednesday before seeing better strength
2016-05-10 16:31:54 fib1618: where we're more than likely we'll see this happen on Thursday now in that the index, that was leading lower, is now showing renewed strength that should carry over, at least momentum wise, on Wednesday for the market as a whole
2016-05-10 16:32:27 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO is also back above its zero line
2016-05-10 16:32:36 fib1618: with a crossover buy signal in the SPX components
2016-05-10 16:33:06 fib1618: note also how the 10% Trend did find the support we were looking for last Thursday near its zero line
2016-05-10 16:33:21 fib1618: so, overall, this specific index remains in accumulation mode
2016-05-10 16:33:56 fib1618: all we need now is a move above the mid April highs in the SPX MCO
2016-05-10 16:34:12 fib1618: and that should be enough to break above the longer term trading range that we see on the daily chart at the 2100 level
2016-05-10 16:34:38 fib1618: pretty much following our blueprint from last week nicely now
2016-05-10 16:35:01 fib1618: also of note
2016-05-10 16:35:20 fib1618: is that today's reading of +14 is right at the declining tops line
2016-05-10 16:35:33 fib1618: and with all these technical resistance zones in play here
2016-05-10 16:35:58 fib1618: the buyers will need to flex their muscles in order to break free of the "pause to refresh" of the last two weeks
2016-05-10 16:36:16 fib1618: and with that flex usually comes a dramatic move in prices
2016-05-10 16:36:58 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO is also back above its zero line and reaction highs level from last week
2016-05-10 16:37:11 fib1618: where the declining tops line here crosses at a +40
2016-05-10 16:37:32 fib1618: so anything above a +50 should provide a highly positive outcome for prices
2016-05-10 16:38:11 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO barely made it back above its zero line today
2016-05-10 16:38:31 fib1618: with a crossover buy with the Dow Components
2016-05-10 16:38:53 fib1618: and the Dow breadth MCSUM holding at around the +750 level
2016-05-10 16:39:03 fib1618: so any good follow through to the upside by Thursday
2016-05-10 16:39:28 fib1618: and we should see a solid test of the mid April price highs
2016-05-10 16:39:37 fib1618: though we don't have enough, as yet, to move much beyond that
2016-05-10 16:39:59 fib1618: zero line snapback complete in the MID breadth MCO
2016-05-10 16:40:19 fib1618: with both MID components now back above their zero line
2016-05-10 16:40:28 fib1618: but remaining on a negative crossover configuration
2016-05-10 16:40:54 fib1618: and the MID breadth MCSUM is in range of its +750 natural support level
2016-05-10 16:41:29 fib1618: there wasn't much in the way of strength though in the SML breadth MCO today
2016-05-10 16:41:50 fib1618: more like it participated "kicking and screaming"
2016-05-10 16:42:24 fib1618: as it remains below all 3 "layers" of MCO resistance
2016-05-10 16:42:47 fib1618: last Monday's highs...the MCO zero line...and the declining tops line
2016-05-10 16:43:04 fib1618: so the buyers need to pick up the pace near term
2016-05-10 16:43:27 fib1618: or this will provide too much excess baggage to keep the rest of the market from making new highs
2016-05-10 16:44:00 fib1618: and we have the same negative look with the TM breadth MCO and its components
2016-05-10 16:44:28 fib1618: where the obligatory technical snapback was accomplished
2016-05-10 16:44:39 fib1618: but not with a lot of underlying strength behind it
2016-05-10 16:44:43 fib1618: sooo...
2016-05-10 16:44:59 fib1618: we got our reflex bounce that we were looking for from last Thursday
2016-05-10 16:45:22 fib1618: but the depth of breadth in moving back in to the market is a bit mixed
2016-05-10 16:45:42 fib1618: with those indices that were heavy weights to the downside over the last couple of weeks seeing the best gains
2016-05-10 16:46:02 fib1618: and with the TM breadth showing a lack of amplitude here
2016-05-10 16:46:21 fib1618: we'll probably see that the majority of trading today was on the back of short covering
2016-05-10 16:50:23 fib1618: OK...let's move on to the volume McClellan's
2016-05-10 16:50:37 fib1618: new all time price highs in the XLP today
2016-05-10 16:50:51 fib1618: with a tremendous internal thrust
2016-05-10 16:53:08 fib1618: so consumer staples are back to a solid buy
2016-05-10 16:53:13 fib1618: OK..
2016-05-10 16:53:20 fib1618: ouch
2016-05-10 16:53:34 fib1618: as strong as it was with breadth
2016-05-10 16:53:51 fib1618: NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's were not nearly as strong
2016-05-10 16:53:58 fib1618: this would then highly suggest short covering
2016-05-10 16:54:30 fib1618: and this is going to add weight around the neck of the bulls for now
2016-05-10 16:54:57 fib1618: we did, however, see much better action in both the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's today
2016-05-10 16:55:18 fib1618: though they have only been able to take out last week's high points
2016-05-10 16:55:54 fib1618: and the NDX volume MCO was able to move above its declining tops line where the NASDAQ closed right on the line today
2016-05-10 16:56:05 fib1618: so we have a firm price low in the NDX now
2016-05-10 16:56:19 fib1618: but in both cases
2016-05-10 16:56:27 fib1618: and including the NYSE
2016-05-10 16:56:45 fib1618: any further follow through here to the upside is likely to be choppy
2016-05-10 16:57:10 mojave: not a high-volume day for sure
2016-05-10 16:57:14 fib1618: where strong breadth can only do so much with a weak heart (volume)
2016-05-10 16:57:19 fib1618: nope
2016-05-10 16:57:41 fib1618: good minimal performance in the SPX volume MCO
2016-05-10 16:57:54 fib1618: but it remains below its zero line
2016-05-10 16:58:14 fib1618: ditto for the OEX volume MCO
2016-05-10 16:58:20 fib1618: which closed right on its zero line today
2016-05-10 16:58:44 fib1618: while we try to hold the +500 level on the OEX volume MCSUM
2016-05-10 16:59:15 fib1618: the Dow volume MCO was only able to make it to the -11 level
2016-05-10 16:59:41 fib1618: with a divergent low left behind
2016-05-10 17:00:18 fib1618: not a lot of strength either with the MID volume MCO
2016-05-10 17:00:43 fib1618: nor the SML volume MCO
2016-05-10 17:01:04 fib1618: as both are averaging at the -28 level
2016-05-10 17:01:26 fib1618: going to need more than this to work with a better platform
2016-05-10 17:01:55 fib1618: though we did get above last week's reaction highs today in the TM volume MCO
2016-05-10 17:02:21 fib1618: and all we're likely to see here is maybe one or two more days of firmness
2016-05-10 17:02:34 fib1618: and then we'll to see some back and fill into next week
2016-05-10 17:02:38 fib1618: so...
2016-05-10 17:02:53 fib1618: today was part of our technical reflex rally
2016-05-10 17:03:21 fib1618: where we have confirmation that this was something more obligatory than it would be constructive
2016-05-10 17:03:27 fib1618: at this point
2016-05-10 17:03:48 fib1618: our thinking that we're going to need a week or two of back and forth action from last week is still on the front burner
2016-05-10 17:04:05 fib1618: and that if we do get immediate follow through to the upside on Wednesday
2016-05-10 17:04:22 fib1618: would secure our price lows for the current correctional process in a more meaningful way
2016-05-10 17:05:03 fib1618: and we can then go about in getting better timing on what and when we should expect going into mid month
2016-05-10 17:05:23 fib1618: moving to the OBV's
2016-05-10 17:05:39 fib1618: BTW
2016-05-10 17:05:48 fib1618: we also have volume confirmation for the XLP as well
2016-05-10 17:05:51 fib1618: so long and strong there
2016-05-10 17:07:24 fib1618: pretty much climactic behavior across the board on the CVI's
2016-05-10 17:07:37 fib1618: so let's look for a price top in the next two trading sessions
2016-05-10 17:07:56 fib1618: definitely too far, too fast...another confirmation of short covering
2016-05-10 17:08:16 fib1618: with the STVO's neutral
2016-05-10 17:08:25 fib1618: so one side is about to take or regain control
2016-05-10 17:08:53 fib1618: and we'll call the NDX VTO close to "oversold"
2016-05-10 17:09:09 fib1618: while the SPX, OEX and Dow are now neutral
2016-05-10 17:09:19 fib1618: again indicating that one side is about to take control
2016-05-10 17:09:32 fib1618: and this usually seen within indecision patterns such as a trading range
2016-05-10 17:09:48 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .67
2016-05-10 17:09:54 fib1618: short covering confirmed
2016-05-10 17:10:10 fib1618: wow...with an Open 10 still highly "oversold" at 1.18
2016-05-10 17:10:25 fib1618: choppy pattern behavior coming here
2016-05-10 17:10:38 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .73
2016-05-10 17:10:47 fib1618: some indication of short covering here as well
2016-05-10 17:10:56 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.02
2016-05-10 17:11:08 fib1618: still "oversold" but not as much as last week
2016-05-10 17:11:18 fib1618: TM TRIN at .77
2016-05-10 17:11:30 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.12
2016-05-10 17:11:34 fib1618: and "oversold"
2016-05-10 17:11:38 fib1618: so...
2016-05-10 17:11:51 fib1618: it looks like the next couple of days are going to be a battle
2016-05-10 17:12:04 fib1618: as both sides begin to take aim at each other
2016-05-10 17:12:22 fib1618: with one side about to wrestle control once the other sides get tired
2016-05-10 17:12:29 fib1618: on the buyer side
2016-05-10 17:12:37 fib1618: we remain on the "oversold" side
2016-05-10 17:12:45 fib1618: while on the seller side
2016-05-10 17:13:03 fib1618: much, if not all, of any short covering has probably been seen
2016-05-10 17:13:34 fib1618: and this should keep prices from moving above the April highs for the time being
2016-05-10 17:13:57 fib1618: needed for the buyers is another follow through day to get all of the MCO's back above last Monday's high points
2016-05-10 17:14:18 fib1618: as this would secure the price pattern lows from last week as being that of a wash out
2016-05-10 17:14:45 fib1618: and we'll just move forward from there and begin the process of building a base from where prices can rally off of
2016-05-10 17:14:54 fib1618: let me check the BETS...one moment
2016-05-10 17:16:31 fib1618: +55
2016-05-10 17:16:40 fib1618: so it was a good day
2016-05-10 17:16:45 mojave: [smile]
2016-05-10 17:16:46 fib1618: and breadth is leading nicely now
2016-05-10 17:17:07 fib1618: we need a +65 or better on the BETS for our first buy signal in a while
2016-05-10 17:17:14 fib1618: but at this point
2016-05-10 17:17:48 fib1618: we remain on an "accumulate with a bullish bias" signal
2016-05-10 17:18:10 fib1618: and continue to watch for anything that would suggest otherwise
2016-05-10 17:18:13 fib1618: anything else?
2016-05-10 17:18:36 thespookyone: thx
2016-05-10 17:18:51 mojave: not here, tks
2016-05-10 17:18:54 fib1618: all we need now is for better volume plurality
2016-05-10 17:19:03 fib1618: and that should come after OPEX
2016-05-10 17:19:08 fib1618: let me check today's ratio on volume
2016-05-10 17:19:50 fib1618: a little over 4:1
2016-05-10 17:19:55 fib1618: so not bad
2016-05-10 17:20:05 fib1618: but we were beaten down into last week's lows
2016-05-10 17:20:18 fib1618: that it's going to take more conviction to change things
2016-05-10 17:20:45 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-05-10 17:20:49 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-05-10 17:20:54 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2016-05-10 17:21:02 fib1618: and we'll see how things look on Thursday
2016-05-10 17:21:03 fib1618: good night
2016-05-10 17:21:33 mojave: later spooky ~
2016-05-10 17:22:19 thespookyone: cya mojave


__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch