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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-05-10 16:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-05-10 16:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-05-10 16:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-05-10 16:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-05-10 16:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving from "overbought" to "oversold" in a matter of days
2011-05-10 16:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO is now back above its zero line
2011-05-10 16:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components giving us a renewed buy signal today
2011-05-10 16:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, of course, has once again turned the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM back to up
2011-05-10 16:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we continue to transverse into a symmetrical triangle of sorts
2011-05-10 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing we do know by looking at both the MCO and the MCSUM is that money flow continues to be rather indecisive of late
2011-05-10 16:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO showing very little texture in either direction
2011-05-10 16:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM moving net sideways during this same time
2011-05-10 16:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the readings on the MCSUM
2011-05-10 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that the bulls continue to hold control of the action
2011-05-10 16:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would extend to the trend in prices as well
2011-05-10 16:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after getting our expected zero line bounce on Friday, the 10% component has once again moved above the +100 line
2011-05-10 16:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this gives a great example of why it's very important to see both the MCO and its components moving in the same direction
2011-05-10 16:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without this compliment between the two, any counter trend moves will tend to be short in percentage and duration
2011-05-10 16:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...we haven't made new highs as yet in the NYA
2011-05-10 16:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the NYAD line did move to new all time highs yesterday
2011-05-10 16:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with breadth of market tending to be leader of where price will eventually follow, it's a pretty good bet that we should expect higher price highs in the major NYSE indices over the near term
2011-05-10 16:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-05-10 16:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we take a ruler to monitor and connect the highs from last November
2011-05-10 16:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the MCSUM is now right up to its declining tops line
2011-05-10 16:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO within striking distance of moving above its own set of resistance tops
2011-05-10 16:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually what happens here
2011-05-10 16:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the MCO will need to move above its own resistance point so that the MCSUM can then move above its own
2011-05-10 16:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so watching breadth plurality over the near term will tell us whether or now we're going to see something of substance or not to the upside from here
2011-05-10 16:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pattern wise
2011-05-10 16:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we discussed last week
2011-05-10 16:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have completed our simple snapbacks to what were our previous overhead resistance area from the February period
2011-05-10 16:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so on a technical basis...the table is again set for a major breakout
2011-05-10 16:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will it happen?
2011-05-10 16:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully as we run through the charts tonight we'll get some sort of indication to that effect
2011-05-10 16:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO powered its way back above the zero line
2011-05-10 16:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the components generated a cross over buy signal in this effort
2011-05-10 16:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that we continue to meander within the area of the zero line on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-05-10 16:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side has yet to take control here...but one side will very soon
2011-05-10 16:16:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need is some conviction here from one side or the other
2011-05-10 16:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor here
2011-05-10 16:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that once we did break above the declining tops line connecting the tops from January
2011-05-10 16:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last week provided a snapback to this same trendline
2011-05-10 16:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again...the bulls are in position now to really take control of the action after having tested this same defensive line generated by the bears
2011-05-10 16:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have a possible buy spike on the NDX breadth MCO in play
2011-05-10 16:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that would be needed would be for some higher MCO highs for confirmation
2011-05-10 16:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which seems to be rather tough to do given the higher readings we see with the previous highs
2011-05-10 16:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more importantly though in all of this is that we continue to support a pattern of bottoms above bottoms here in both the NDX breadth MCO and MCSUM
2011-05-10 16:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the odds favor continued success by the bulls near term
2011-05-10 16:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice that the components of the NDX breadth MCO found their support at their zero line
2011-05-10 16:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost the same situation with the SPX data
2011-05-10 16:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where a break above the +750 level on the SPX breadth MCSUM would be a highly bullish event
2011-05-10 16:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where a challenge of the +1000 level would be the next expectation
2011-05-10 16:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...this thing is really starting to look like a monster advance
2011-05-10 16:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottoms above bottoms
2011-05-10 16:23:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the angle of ascent
2011-05-10 16:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the way the internals are holding strong here
2011-05-10 16:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with pullbacks being accompanied by news related stories
2011-05-10 16:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite a wall of worry here
2011-05-10 16:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we get to some meat
2011-05-10 16:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM has now moved above its recent highs
2011-05-10 16:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and everything here looks to be in gear to the upside
2011-05-10 16:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how far we go will greatly depend on the internal character we see over the next two days
2011-05-10 16:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will we be able to move above the recent highs in the OEX breadth MCO?
2011-05-10 16:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will the components move to their own highs to confirm?
2011-05-10 16:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will this occur so that the OEX breadth MCSUM can then leap frog above its +750 resistance?
2011-05-10 16:26:05 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: quick ?? - when the longer-acting indicator (McSum) makes new highs w/o the McO, does that indicate anything, or is that "norm"?
2011-05-10 16:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO is your short term indicator
2011-05-10 16:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so being it will start to diverge first before the MCSUM
2011-05-10 16:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like all oscillators
2011-05-10 16:26:46 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: ahhh - momo
2011-05-10 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go
2011-05-10 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a matter of where we are in the bigger picture
2011-05-10 16:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and whether it can be supported by continuing money flow or not
2011-05-10 16:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-05-10 16:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: divergences are always being created
2011-05-10 16:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the way things go in the markets
2011-05-10 16:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key is knowing and understanding when these same divergences should or can be acted upon profitably
2011-05-10 16:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2011-05-10 16:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do make new highs
2011-05-10 16:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the previous divergence created mean nothing
2011-05-10 16:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a new sequence
2011-05-10 16:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and each sequence is as unique as a snowflake
2011-05-10 16:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they may all look the same, but upon close examination, they're all very different
2011-05-10 16:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we do move to new highs here in the MCO's
2011-05-10 16:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this leads to the MCSUM's making new highs
2011-05-10 16:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then if we're working with our Elliott hat on
2011-05-10 16:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can only occur in the center point of a 3rd wave of whatever degree you wish to label it
2011-05-10 16:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like I always say
2011-05-10 16:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it all has to work together for it to be probable
2011-05-10 16:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market decides
2011-05-10 16:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't
2011-05-10 16:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't
2011-05-10 16:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our objective is just to follow its lead
2011-05-10 16:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can apply whatever technique to substantiate what it means later
2011-05-10 16:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a technician
2011-05-10 16:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all very exciting
2011-05-10 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there is a reasonable expectation now on a once in a lifetime move in the equity markets
2011-05-10 16:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like silver
2011-05-10 16:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or gold
2011-05-10 16:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or any other commodity
2011-05-10 16:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stocks ARE a commodity
2011-05-10 16:32:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: AGREED
2011-05-10 16:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more so today than at any time
2011-05-10 16:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money moves in only because of value these days
2011-05-10 16:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's undervalued...money moves in
2011-05-10 16:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's over valued...money moves out
2011-05-10 16:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what happens in Washington means very little
2011-05-10 16:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what they say in the media has nothing to do with how market mechanics work
2011-05-10 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it pacifies the public when they don't know or don't understand
2011-05-10 16:34:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: or how the charts look price in Chinese Yaun? LOL
2011-05-10 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the Euro
2011-05-10 16:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the Yen
2011-05-10 16:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or whatever
2011-05-10 16:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price is price
2011-05-10 16:34:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: king
2011-05-10 16:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the only thing that directs its movements is......?
2011-05-10 16:35:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: value
2011-05-10 16:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point
2011-05-10 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money
2011-05-10 16:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is the energy that drives the direction of price
2011-05-10 16:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more money there is chasing after a limited supply, the higher the price will go
2011-05-10 16:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many buy back programs have we heard about over the last 10 years?
2011-05-10 16:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then on top of that...there's even move buy backs
2011-05-10 16:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more a company takes off the shelf, the harder it is to get it
2011-05-10 16:37:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: starting to see a few more buy outs, as well
2011-05-10 16:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is nothing but merchandising folks
2011-05-10 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you ain't seen nothing yet
2011-05-10 16:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember we talked about the semi's?
2011-05-10 16:37:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-05-10 16:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like the smaller and smaller amount of competition when you walk into a retail store
2011-05-10 16:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will be less and less companies to invest in
2011-05-10 16:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...you find the companies who have the best potential to get even bigger
2011-05-10 16:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before it was GOOG
2011-05-10 16:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now MSFT is picking up the pace
2011-05-10 16:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AAPL
2011-05-10 16:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: etc
2011-05-10 16:38:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and company's are sitting on TONS of cash
2011-05-10 16:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tons
2011-05-10 16:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-05-10 16:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the economy turns around domestically
2011-05-10 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to lose some investment from outside the US
2011-05-10 16:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we haven't gotten close to tapping the tip of the iceberg domestically
2011-05-10 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-05-10 16:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we break to new highs on the MCO's
2011-05-10 16:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will likely see new all time highs in the Dow
2011-05-10 16:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SPX
2011-05-10 16:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX
2011-05-10 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on and on
2011-05-10 16:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM is continues to gravitate towards its important test of the +1250 level
2011-05-10 16:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with a reading of +1157
2011-05-10 16:41:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so only 100 MCO points away from breaking that
2011-05-10 16:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after hitting "oversold" last week, the MID breadth MCO is now back into positive territory
2011-05-10 16:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the NASDAQ data, the MID breadth MCSUM continues to show indecision in its structure
2011-05-10 16:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the big difference here is that we're moving sideways above the +500 level
2011-05-10 16:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will make it very easy to see new higher price highs on the MID
2011-05-10 16:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO is now back up to its declining tops line
2011-05-10 16:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML breadth MCSUM continues to find good support at the +250 level
2011-05-10 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price pattern wise
2011-05-10 16:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice gap up today...and we closed at the highs of the session
2011-05-10 16:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the March and April periods on the price chart
2011-05-10 16:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and gaps like this, with a close near the top of the range, have led to 2-3 weeks of rally
2011-05-10 16:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would be expectation this time around as well
2011-05-10 16:46:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wish these large mco moves had some texture
2011-05-10 16:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me too
2011-05-10 16:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could be because
2011-05-10 16:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're like a bubbling crude underneath the service...waiting to explode
2011-05-10 16:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the top is released
2011-05-10 16:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better analogy
2011-05-10 16:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like a pressure cooker
2011-05-10 16:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we get extremes in temperature just before the pot explodes
2011-05-10 16:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2011-05-10 16:47:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do move to higher highs
2011-05-10 16:48:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can allow this lack of texture in favor of the strength to do this kind of thing given the amount of time we've been percolating
2011-05-10 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would be more important on any break above the previous highs
2011-05-10 16:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would then be complex structure to trace out giving us our texture
2011-05-10 16:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that being up and down - preferably above the breakout point
2011-05-10 16:49:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I would take anything that would keep the MCO just above its zero line
2011-05-10 16:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all you really need anyway
2011-05-10 16:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the MCO remains above the zero line
2011-05-10 16:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher and higher the MCSUM will go
2011-05-10 16:50:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure-would just ad a bit of safety with some texture
2011-05-10 16:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a trampoline provides an trapeze artist?
2011-05-10 16:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed
2011-05-10 16:51:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY moved to new highs today
2011-05-10 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be all time highs as well
2011-05-10 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...all time highs
2011-05-10 16:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is discretionary products folks
2011-05-10 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things in which people can live WITHOUT
2011-05-10 16:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that sends a mighty important message economically
2011-05-10 16:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time highs as well on the XLP
2011-05-10 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here's a good example for Steve of how the MCUSM can move higher without the benefit of a higher high in the MCO
2011-05-10 16:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the zero line now on the XLE breadth MCO
2011-05-10 16:54:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLE breadth MCSUM holding just below the +250 level
2011-05-10 16:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually energy tends to pick up the rear of any advance
2011-05-10 16:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would expect the same here
2011-05-10 16:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how do you like the gold/oil offset and how its working ?
2011-05-10 16:55:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: super!
2011-05-10 16:55:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember how we were looking at the 4 month offset and we saw the decline in oil to happen right around now?
2011-05-10 16:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if this consistency continues
2011-05-10 16:56:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I have a chart of it posted in my trading room
2011-05-10 16:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should look for a bottom in oil sometime around the end of May
2011-05-10 16:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we're going probably going to see a challenge of the all time highs after that
2011-05-10 16:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many commodities as well
2011-05-10 16:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what will be the trigger..don't know really
2011-05-10 16:57:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as long as it works...let it
2011-05-10 16:57:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2011-05-10 16:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the all time highs in the XLE is 87.27
2011-05-10 16:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to a cross over buy on the XLF breadth MCO components
2011-05-10 16:58:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the correctional price pattern now looks complete
2011-05-10 16:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a descending wedge
2011-05-10 16:59:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a move above 16.50 continues to be a accumulation point
2011-05-10 16:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a move above 18 is a buy
2011-05-10 16:59:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: above 20 aggressive buy
2011-05-10 16:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all time highs there at 34.77
2011-05-10 17:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV is just amazing here
2011-05-10 17:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: funny thing...I saw article just this morning on how a big test for the Health Care bill is coming soon from the Federal Appeals Court
2011-05-10 17:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either way it goes...next stop is the Supreme Court
2011-05-10 17:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but money is betting that it's going to fail and be called unconstitutional based on the current degree of money flow
2011-05-10 17:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now in all time high territory here too
2011-05-10 17:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to be a bear when you look around at the sectors moving to new all time highs
2011-05-10 17:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: huh!
2011-05-10 17:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO and it's components just took out last weeks highs!
2011-05-10 17:03:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should be enough to see the Dow move to new highs as well
2011-05-10 17:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should mean new highs in the Transports...let me look
2011-05-10 17:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...new all time closing highs today on the Dow Transports today
2011-05-10 17:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's doing this without the benefit of the BDI?
2011-05-10 17:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: parish the thought
2011-05-10 17:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the BDI is a great example of how each market segment is unique
2011-05-10 17:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why if you use something that used to work before, it doesn't necessarily mean it will keep on working
2011-05-10 17:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: flexibility is always a trading key
2011-05-10 17:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you keep focused on money flow, you're going to be on the right side of things more times than not
2011-05-10 17:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all time highs on the XLI is 39.14...so .16 away
2011-05-10 17:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we even got a cross over buy on the XLB breadth MCO components
2011-05-10 17:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I would be a bit cautious there because of the wild gyrations in commodities right now
2011-05-10 17:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides...there's so much else you can choose from than to try being a hero and picking a bottom
2011-05-10 17:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always important to keep our money working for us at all times...not just once in a while
2011-05-10 17:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: move in when money is moving in...out when it's moving out
2011-05-10 17:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all time highs here are 43.41...so two points away
2011-05-10 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: striking distance
2011-05-10 17:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is happening in spite of the precious metals and commodities rout of last week
2011-05-10 17:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should tell you something
2011-05-10 17:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2011-05-10 17:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you see the bullish divergence on the PM A/D lines this past weekend?
2011-05-10 17:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was surprised
2011-05-10 17:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I don't surprise easy
2011-05-10 17:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even better than that
2011-05-10 17:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're also holding longer term support both internally and externally
2011-05-10 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk about buying at wholesale pricing!
2011-05-10 17:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...need to see a little more than just a reflex rally here
2011-05-10 17:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the upside objectives for both gold and silver are still in play here
2011-05-10 17:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as their trend lines are not broken
2011-05-10 17:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-05-10 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we're getting a buy signal now in the XLK
2011-05-10 17:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should go a long way for the NASDAQ composite
2011-05-10 17:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more day like today would do it
2011-05-10 17:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so keep an eye out for this sector
2011-05-10 17:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all time highs here are at 27.34
2011-05-10 17:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: less than a point away
2011-05-10 17:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me expand the time periods as that doesn't look right
2011-05-10 17:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry...
2011-05-10 17:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to 2000...it's 60.26
2011-05-10 17:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're on the door step of moving to 10 year highs
2011-05-10 17:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing to sneeze at
2011-05-10 17:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU is about to explode to the upside
2011-05-10 17:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now taken out the highs of last year
2011-05-10 17:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now within 100 MCSUM points of taking out the highs since the 2009 lows
2011-05-10 17:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that happens...that would strengthen the center point hypothesis quite a bit
2011-05-10 17:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all time highs there are at 39.80
2011-05-10 17:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-05-10 17:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: steady as she goes
2011-05-10 17:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the volume McClellan data
2011-05-10 17:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more thing on the XLU breadth MCSUM - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsi_XLU.html
2011-05-10 17:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice the pattern before it rocketed higher?
2011-05-10 17:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of like the sideways action we've been working with lately
2011-05-10 17:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could it be a leading indication of what we're going to see here?
2011-05-10 17:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...volume
2011-05-10 17:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-05-10 17:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how anyone could think we're topping here...I have no clue what they're talking about
2011-05-10 17:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO and composite NYSE volume data is confirming breadth here
2011-05-10 17:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCSUM showed good gap extension today above the +500 level
2011-05-10 17:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCSUM continues to show tremendous strength here
2011-05-10 17:20:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember that the top 100 "lifts" the broader market
2011-05-10 17:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good post expansion on the SPX volume MCSUM as well
2011-05-10 17:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just about to break above its previous highs of April
2011-05-10 17:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I said last week
2011-05-10 17:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have learned not to underestimate the current market dynamics
2011-05-10 17:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...higher OEX volume MCO highs
2011-05-10 17:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was needed to break above the April highs seen on the OEX volume MCSUM
2011-05-10 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it must all work together
2011-05-10 17:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here it shows how this works
2011-05-10 17:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't have too much problem now moving above the zero line here
2011-05-10 17:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new highs as well on the TM volume MCSUM
2011-05-10 17:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the only "problem" here near term coming with the SML volume MCO moving to lower lows last week
2011-05-10 17:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but maybe this created a vacuum of sorts which was reversed with the gap higher today?
2011-05-10 17:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just an amazing market
2011-05-10 17:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't even consider shorting here even intraday
2011-05-10 17:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be looking just for conformational buy points
2011-05-10 17:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hope we get an intraday sell off to buy low
2011-05-10 17:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one or two more days should be enough to really kick things into high gear here
2011-05-10 17:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still need that little bit of confirmation
2011-05-10 17:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the volume oscillators
2011-05-10 17:26:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: begging for an intraday low!
2011-05-10 17:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really amazing
2011-05-10 17:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know how else to put this
2011-05-10 17:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have NEVER seen anything like what's going on here
2011-05-10 17:27:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: me either=35 years
2011-05-10 17:27:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like we're building pressure that, once released, is going to give us something unimaginable
2011-05-10 17:28:14 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: omg - Dave - you're the calm one, right?
2011-05-10 17:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone see anything at all that would be construed as bearish here?
2011-05-10 17:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well
2011-05-10 17:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know it's funny
2011-05-10 17:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm human too
2011-05-10 17:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there have been times in which I get excited
2011-05-10 17:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yes, the market reverses
2011-05-10 17:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be one of those times here
2011-05-10 17:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-05-10 17:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see what I see
2011-05-10 17:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see bottoms above bottoms
2011-05-10 17:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see strength getting more strength
2011-05-10 17:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see price patterns snapping back and finding support
2011-05-10 17:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see angles of ascent that are not likely to be broken so quickly
2011-05-10 17:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there would be a chance to be broken if we were not so strong internally
2011-05-10 17:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're in the month of May
2011-05-10 17:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: traditionally a good month for the bulls because of this continuing reference of selling in may and going away
2011-05-10 17:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people looking at QE2 expiring in June and there's no way the market will continue move higher without it
2011-05-10 17:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: jobs suck
2011-05-10 17:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's no place for all of this excess cash to go to
2011-05-10 17:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-05-10 17:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you put it in areas in which are making more than 3%
2011-05-10 17:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (10 year note yield)
2011-05-10 17:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even more so that's better than 0% (T-Bills)
2011-05-10 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silver has doubled
2011-05-10 17:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as has commodities in general
2011-05-10 17:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: debt remains at a ceiling for the last 10 years after rallying for 20 years prior
2011-05-10 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what asset class has remained sideways during this time?
2011-05-10 17:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all there
2011-05-10 17:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even a nuclear meltdown could dent the uptrend
2011-05-10 17:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line
2011-05-10 17:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains higher
2011-05-10 17:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the corrections are getting smaller
2011-05-10 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both in time and scope
2011-05-10 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it's pretty exciting as to what the expectations might be here
2011-05-10 17:35:41 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: check
2011-05-10 17:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's have reversed higher but are not "overbought"
2011-05-10 17:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are neutral
2011-05-10 17:36:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control
2011-05-10 17:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are best described as reflecting a strong uptrend again
2011-05-10 17:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will probably remain between "overbought" and zero for a while
2011-05-10 17:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.08
2011-05-10 17:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.13
2011-05-10 17:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still "oversold"
2011-05-10 17:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .80
2011-05-10 17:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at a more decent .86
2011-05-10 17:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have removed the "overbought" status there
2011-05-10 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .90
2011-05-10 17:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .98
2011-05-10 17:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and knocking on minimally "oversold"
2011-05-10 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we did to accomplish this is move down for 3 days?
2011-05-10 17:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing
2011-05-10 17:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-05-10 17:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain in control
2011-05-10 17:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we talked about two weeks ago, if they start to really flex their muscles here, the bears will be toast for a while
2011-05-10 17:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any move above the recent highs in the MCO's
2011-05-10 17:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will likely equate to an all clear to challenge the all time highs on the major NYSE indices
2011-05-10 17:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will probably do so within 6 weeks
2011-05-10 17:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCSUM's move to new highs above the February period
2011-05-10 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will then extend our time element for the current advance to sometime in the summer
2011-05-10 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have a better feel for when and IF this occurs
2011-05-10 17:41:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in all...quite a market here
2011-05-10 17:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kinda scary as to what could happen here
2011-05-10 17:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but exciting as well
2011-05-10 17:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-05-10 17:42:06 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: thank you so much
2011-05-10 17:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...thank you for listening to my gibberish
2011-05-10 17:42:47 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: ....right....keep on gibberin'
2011-05-10 17:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't forget the REIT sector here
2011-05-10 17:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're about to go to new all time highs on the A/D line
2011-05-10 17:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the financials breakout
2011-05-10 17:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the housing
2011-05-10 17:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the areas to keep a sharp eye on are those that are not only out of favor
2011-05-10 17:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but were the sectors that led to the 2008 crash
2011-05-10 17:44:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: make a call-get me an intraday low, eh? LOL
2011-05-10 17:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they, like the tech area in 2000, will be the last ones to where many will put their cash into
2011-05-10 17:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once bitten...twice shy
2011-05-10 17:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I'm calling now...
2011-05-10 17:45:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sweet
2011-05-10 17:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: DAMN...the line is busy
2011-05-10 17:45:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: WWW tomorrow
2011-05-10 17:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be an accumulation point for the specialists
2011-05-10 17:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for the reminder
2011-05-10 17:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check what we need tomorrow breadth wise...one sec
2011-05-10 17:46:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet-you know if they wholesale-I'll accumulate
2011-05-10 17:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a no point change on the MCO - +491
2011-05-10 17:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the zero line -1476
2011-05-10 17:47:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's on the RA NYSE breadth MCO
2011-05-10 17:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-05-10 17:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like 3:1 to the good would be all that's needed
2011-05-10 17:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything better than that...and we should have another thrust underway
2011-05-10 17:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-05-10 17:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have your blueprint for tomorrow
2011-05-10 17:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so everyone have a great day of trading
2011-05-10 17:49:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2011-05-10 17:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll hook up again on Thursday
2011-05-10 17:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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