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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2016-04-07 16:00:07 fib1618: good day
2016-04-07 16:00:09 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-04-07 16:00:53 Miss D: good. how are you?
2016-04-07 16:01:45 fib1618: doing fine...thanks for asking
2016-04-07 16:03:08 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-04-07 16:05:33 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-04-07 16:07:13 fib1618: after providing our technical bounce on Wednesday
2016-04-07 16:07:21 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved lower today
2016-04-07 16:07:32 fib1618: and took out Tuesday's low point in the process
2016-04-07 16:08:03 fib1618: this now extends our corrective sequence until sometime next week at a minimum
2016-04-07 16:08:35 fib1618: while the NYA price action met our minimal downside price target intraday today
2016-04-07 16:09:08 fib1618: this crack to a lower MCO low provided an expansion gap to the downside in the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2016-04-07 16:09:15 fib1618: as it moved down and through the +750 level
2016-04-07 16:10:03 fib1618: taken together, this then allows for a new downside target for the NYA price pattern structure to the 9900 level
2016-04-07 16:11:00 fib1618: also of note, the 10% Trend also moved sharply back below its zero line confirming the MCO's lower low
2016-04-07 16:11:37 fib1618: and this would suggest that the MCSUM is now likely to challenge the +500 level during this same corrective process
2016-04-07 16:12:02 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-04-07 16:12:13 fib1618: and here we see a similar breakdown in the pattern
2016-04-07 16:12:32 fib1618: but we remain above the -50 level
2016-04-07 16:12:49 fib1618: this would then indicate that selling remains orderly at this time
2016-04-07 16:13:45 fib1618: and this would help in confirming our expectation that this is a correction and not a change in trend
2016-04-07 16:14:05 fib1618: today's lower low in the Composite MCO
2016-04-07 16:14:29 fib1618: was able to push the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM down and through the +1000 level
2016-04-07 16:15:06 fib1618: looking at the components
2016-04-07 16:15:17 fib1618: and we see that both remain above their respective zero lines
2016-04-07 16:15:39 fib1618: and this would indicate that both of the NYAD line EMA's continue to rise at this time
2016-04-07 16:16:02 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-04-07 16:16:18 fib1618: and here we see that we had our expected snapback toward the zero line on Wednesday
2016-04-07 16:16:33 fib1618: and then moved to a lower reading today compared to Tuesday
2016-04-07 16:17:17 fib1618: we also note that the 10% Trend component also moved back below its zero line for the first time since the end of February
2016-04-07 16:17:35 fib1618: and this would indicate that the 19 day EMA of the NAAD line has now turned lower
2016-04-07 16:17:58 fib1618: and the only way that can happen is that the NAAD line, itself, is moving to the downside
2016-04-07 16:18:32 fib1618: looking at the daily chart of the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2016-04-07 16:18:48 fib1618: and we see we have a rounding top formation working here
2016-04-07 16:19:13 fib1618: as if a cruise ship was making a sweeping motion in an effort to change direction
2016-04-07 16:19:24 fib1618: all in all then
2016-04-07 16:19:47 fib1618: it would appear that we have some sort of exhaustion in play here on an intermediate term basis
2016-04-07 16:20:14 fib1618: and that the +250 level will be our next objective over the next week
2016-04-07 16:20:56 fib1618: we also had our obligatory technical bounce in the NDX breadth MCO on Wednesday as well
2016-04-07 16:21:12 fib1618: and like the other MCO's we've covered so far
2016-04-07 16:21:21 fib1618: this version has also moved to a lower low as well
2016-04-07 16:21:39 fib1618: so, if anything else, we are quite a bit in sync right now
2016-04-07 16:22:18 fib1618: and this will tend to make it easier for us to pick up on the rhythm of the market for the next couple of weeks
2016-04-07 16:22:43 fib1618: as with the NYSE Composite MCO components
2016-04-07 16:23:03 fib1618: here too we see that the NDX 10% and 5% Trends remain above their zero lines
2016-04-07 16:23:28 fib1618: and as long as we can maintain this positive bias in the EMA's
2016-04-07 16:23:51 fib1618: any further price decay in the NDX will tend to be absorbed quite readily
2016-04-07 16:24:11 fib1618: looking at the price chart of the NDX
2016-04-07 16:24:31 fib1618: and you can now see a definitive outline of our expected trading range we talked about on Tuesday
2016-04-07 16:24:48 fib1618: however with the lower MCO low today
2016-04-07 16:25:25 fib1618: it's still a very good bet that we'll continue to see price decay here to what should be natural pattern support at the 4400 level before this is over
2016-04-07 16:26:16 fib1618: we also had an obligatory technical snapback to the zero line in the SPX breadth MCO on Wednesday before moving to lower lows today
2016-04-07 16:26:58 fib1618: the 10% SPX MCO component also moved to just below its zero line today
2016-04-07 16:27:16 fib1618: and like it was suggested on Tuesday in other areas
2016-04-07 16:27:31 fib1618: this would likely give us another technical bounce here as soon as Friday
2016-04-07 16:27:53 fib1618: before retesting today's -6 reading early next week
2016-04-07 16:29:06 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2016-04-07 16:29:23 fib1618: and here too we got our expected snapback to or toward the zero line on Wednesday
2016-04-07 16:29:30 fib1618: before moving to lower lows today
2016-04-07 16:30:10 fib1618: the 10% component also moved back below its zero line as well
2016-04-07 16:30:12 fib1618: and usually, under these types of circumstances where the 10% moved below the -20 level
2016-04-07 16:31:01 fib1618: we don't tend to get an immediate bounce until the 5% Trend has also had a chance to challenge its zero line
2016-04-07 16:31:40 fib1618: pretty much the same situation with the Dow breadth MCO with its snapback toward its zero line on Wednesday
2016-04-07 16:32:05 fib1618: but the 10% Trend here has moved only slightly below its zero line
2016-04-07 16:32:54 fib1618: so an attempt to bounce here may be more of an influence than seeing the OEX components immediately move a bit deeper into negative territory
2016-04-07 16:33:03 fib1618: so a bit of a mix bag there
2016-04-07 16:33:55 fib1618: we got our expected bounce as well in the MID breadth MCO back up to the -26 level
2016-04-07 16:34:11 fib1618: before we moved sharply lower today in taking out Tuesday's lows
2016-04-07 16:35:08 fib1618: also got a decisively break below the zero line in the MID 10% index today as well
2016-04-07 16:35:39 fib1618: and with today's MCO downside reversal
2016-04-07 16:36:01 fib1618: the MID breadth MCSUM has now moved down and through the -1000 level
2016-04-07 16:36:19 fib1618: and that should keep a cap on things, price wise, for the time being
2016-04-07 16:36:34 fib1618: first target remains 1400
2016-04-07 16:36:38 fib1618: and then 1380
2016-04-07 16:36:46 mojave: mid looks a bit like CSO
2016-04-07 16:37:00 mojave: the 10% "pull away"
2016-04-07 16:37:06 fib1618: yep
2016-04-07 16:37:12 fib1618: we have a lot of echoing going on right now
2016-04-07 16:37:13 mojave: others are all still bunched
2016-04-07 16:37:20 fib1618: which makes it easier for us
2016-04-07 16:37:34 fib1618: as far as getting the timing down for any future buy point
2016-04-07 16:37:37 fib1618: but for sure
2016-04-07 16:37:57 fib1618: our long awaited pause to refresh is finally under way it would seem
2016-04-07 16:38:33 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO also provided us with a technical bounce back up to the -23 level
2016-04-07 16:38:41 fib1618: before moving sharply lower today
2016-04-07 16:39:30 fib1618: so the 660 level looks "easy peasy" now
2016-04-07 16:40:08 fib1618: and with the SML MCO 5% Trend now within spitting distance of its zero line
2016-04-07 16:40:21 fib1618: a technical bounce here by Monday wouldn't at all be a surprise
2016-04-07 16:40:41 fib1618: and finishing up with the TM breadth MCO
2016-04-07 16:40:52 fib1618: here too we snapped back toward the zero line on Wednesday
2016-04-07 16:41:25 fib1618: before making it unanimous in moving below Tuesday's MCO low
2016-04-07 16:41:50 fib1618: while the 10% Trend remains above its zero line
2016-04-07 16:42:09 fib1618: and this would indicate that another bounce attempt is likely to take place near term...at least by Monday
2016-04-07 16:42:11 fib1618: so...
2016-04-07 16:42:27 fib1618: we continue to relive our "overbought" intermediate term condition from last week
2016-04-07 16:43:08 fib1618: with the broader market barometers showing better overall buoyancy with both of their components above their zero lines
2016-04-07 16:43:50 fib1618: while the rest of the indices are moving with a good technical rhythm from which it should be that much easier to play "hit and run" during this corrective process
2016-04-07 16:44:24 mojave: quick question before sectors
2016-04-07 16:44:27 fib1618: shoot
2016-04-07 16:44:37 mojave: re: MCO levels
2016-04-07 16:45:29 mojave: there must be a different level required to have same "meaning" right?
2016-04-07 16:45:48 mojave: ie, you mentioned near the beginning of chat the -50 level = orderly
2016-04-07 16:46:10 mojave: but one index may routinely go well above 100, others barely
2016-04-07 16:46:16 fib1618: yes
2016-04-07 16:46:28 fib1618: the less the total make up of the basket of issues
2016-04-07 16:46:40 fib1618: the easier it is to move to deeper readings in both directions
2016-04-07 16:47:07 fib1618: this is why our main thrust in working with this data is with the NYSE Composite and NASDAQ Composite data
2016-04-07 16:47:15 mojave: well, the NAZ is pretty large... but only nears 100
2016-04-07 16:47:38 mojave: but ok
2016-04-07 16:47:40 fib1618: there are approximately 3300 issues that trade on the NYSE
2016-04-07 16:48:05 fib1618: and on the NASDAQ, I think it's around 2900
2016-04-07 16:48:28 fib1618: compared to the 500, 400, 600, 100, 30
2016-04-07 16:48:49 fib1618: the magic here works best with the broadest amount of data available
2016-04-07 16:49:07 mojave: ok, my eyes may have gotten distracted by 5 & 10% levels...
2016-04-07 16:49:22 mojave: but I understand that's just ema math
2016-04-07 16:49:25 fib1618: and why we take our cues from the Composites more than the lesser baskets of indices
2016-04-07 16:49:31 fib1618: well...
2016-04-07 16:49:32 fib1618: again
2016-04-07 16:49:36 fib1618: if you have 100 issues
2016-04-07 16:49:55 fib1618: it's easier for the A/D line to move with that much more amplitude
2016-04-07 16:50:04 fib1618: compared to something like the NYSE
2016-04-07 16:50:20 fib1618: and so the data will tend to be skewed in this relationship
2016-04-07 16:50:27 fib1618: it's all relative
2016-04-07 16:50:38 mojave: ok, I'm good
2016-04-07 16:50:38 fib1618: the important thing here to take away in all cases is that
2016-04-07 16:51:27 fib1618: the both the MCO's and MCSUM's have shown a tendency to use incremental levels to help in attaining strength or weakness
2016-04-07 16:51:39 fib1618: going back to your observation of the 50 level
2016-04-07 16:52:05 fib1618: what you will find over time is that the 25 levels tend to provide the insight that a change in the direction of money flow is possible
2016-04-07 16:52:20 fib1618: while moving beyond the 50 level is become probable
2016-04-07 16:52:32 fib1618: keeping in mind
2016-04-07 16:52:40 fib1618: that when we are at the zero line
2016-04-07 16:52:46 fib1618: we have balance between buyers and sellers on a trending basis
2016-04-07 16:52:54 fib1618: both on a short term basis (the MCO)
2016-04-07 16:53:04 fib1618: and on an intermediate basis (the MCSUM
2016-04-07 16:53:33 fib1618: the MCSUM then uses this same concept of 25 and 50's to 250 and 500's
2016-04-07 16:53:59 fib1618: both the 50 and 500 act as levels to where changes in trend are PROBABLE
2016-04-07 16:54:18 fib1618: while the 25 and 250 levels indicate that changes in trend are POSSIBLE
2016-04-07 16:54:28 fib1618: in other words
2016-04-07 16:54:42 fib1618: the more money (demand) there is that is chasing a limited amount of float (supply)
2016-04-07 16:54:51 fib1618: the better the directional bias of prices
2016-04-07 16:55:02 fib1618: and the trend that is created by this same "money supply"
2016-04-07 16:55:21 fib1618: so...if we take this one step further
2016-04-07 16:56:00 fib1618: the 75 and 750 levels respectively begin to show higher than normal trading imbalances that perpetuate a continuation of prices moving in one direction or the other
2016-04-07 16:56:08 fib1618: 100 and 1000 even more so
2016-04-07 16:56:26 fib1618: and it gets to a point of not being able to be maintained
2016-04-07 16:56:36 fib1618: and we "level off"
2016-04-07 16:57:47 fib1618: momentum concepts like this is why other indicators such as RSI and ROC provide points from which the degree of which prices are able to maintain their direction
2016-04-07 16:58:01 fib1618: sort of like stepping on a throttle
2016-04-07 16:58:10 fib1618: you can only go so far before you hit the floor (maximum thrust)
2016-04-07 16:58:29 fib1618: and the only way you can go is to ease your foot off the throttle
2016-04-07 16:58:38 fib1618: you still move forward, of course
2016-04-07 16:59:07 fib1618: but not at the "rate of change" that you were prior your taking your foot off the pedal
2016-04-07 16:59:12 fib1618: so...
2016-04-07 16:59:12 fib1618: now
2016-04-07 16:59:43 fib1618: we have several MCO's that moved down to the -25 or -50 levels on Tuesday
2016-04-07 16:59:59 fib1618: and so you have to expect that the throttle will be let off a bit
2016-04-07 17:00:42 fib1618: and you snapback back to a more "controllable" level of motion
2016-04-07 17:01:15 fib1618: if there isn't enough equal and opposite to offset this imbalance
2016-04-07 17:01:37 fib1618: then the path of least resistance that was built prior to this "correctional sequence" again takes over
2016-04-07 17:02:09 fib1618: until less and less "energy" is provided and then the pendulum moves the opposite way
2016-04-07 17:02:21 fib1618: now...I'm sure I'm getting confusing
2016-04-07 17:02:32 fib1618: but this is all physics
2016-04-07 17:02:43 fib1618: we go back and forth
2016-04-07 17:03:02 fib1618: and usually do so in the same cadences
2016-04-07 17:03:13 fib1618: so...Tuesday
2016-04-07 17:03:35 fib1618: it was possible that we were going to correct for a small period of time
2016-04-07 17:03:47 fib1618: today...that time factor has expanded to another week
2016-04-07 17:03:48 fib1618: or maybe two
2016-04-07 17:03:59 fib1618: if we get to the -75 level in the NYSE Composite MCO
2016-04-07 17:04:11 fib1618: that's about all we usually see when the MCSUM's get as high as they are
2016-04-07 17:04:23 fib1618: it would be considered highly "oversold"
2016-04-07 17:04:35 fib1618: and enough to change the direction of intermediate term money flow
2016-04-07 17:04:48 fib1618: once we get back to being balanced at the MCO zero line again
2016-04-07 17:05:11 fib1618: prices will still be able to move with the longer term trend in force as measured by the MCSUM by it being either above or below its zero line
2016-04-07 17:05:29 fib1618: and this is the reason why we can see higher price highs at lower MCSUM levels (or lower prices with higher MCSUM)
2016-04-07 17:05:46 fib1618: any follow up?
2016-04-07 17:06:11 fib1618: or did I put you to sleep [smile]
2016-04-07 17:06:18 mojave: nope, thanks!
2016-04-07 17:06:27 fib1618: OK...anytime ask away
2016-04-07 17:06:52 fib1618: the only way to understand anything technical is to ask questions
2016-04-07 17:06:53 tuna: great question and explanation thanks!
2016-04-07 17:07:02 fib1618: and I hope I answer it in a way that makes not only sense
2016-04-07 17:07:09 fib1618: but opens a door not thought of
2016-04-07 17:07:36 fib1618: you all know I like to use the space shuttle and an automobile as examples
2016-04-07 17:07:49 fib1618: as we're all familiar with these concepts
2016-04-07 17:08:06 fib1618: money = fuel
2016-04-07 17:08:19 fib1618: the more fuel that's used
2016-04-07 17:08:30 fib1618: the further you'll travel
2016-04-07 17:08:36 fib1618: the faster its used
2016-04-07 17:08:47 fib1618: you'll reach your target that much quicker
2016-04-07 17:08:57 fib1618: OK...sectors
2016-04-07 17:09:14 fib1618: after bouncing at the -50 level on Tuesday
2016-04-07 17:09:40 fib1618: and finding resistance at the -19 level on Wednesday
2016-04-07 17:09:53 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO also moved to new lows today
2016-04-07 17:10:06 fib1618: coming in with a reading of -61
2016-04-07 17:10:10 fib1618: or...
2016-04-07 17:10:20 fib1618: money is moving out of the market at 61 mph
2016-04-07 17:16:17 fib1618: looking at the XLY components
2016-04-07 17:16:35 fib1618: and we see a familiar pattern of the 10% Trend bouncing off the zero line on Wednesday
2016-04-07 17:16:41 fib1618: and then moving down and through it today
2016-04-07 17:17:12 fib1618: the next expectation is for a snapback attempt to or toward this same zero line that was violated today
2016-04-07 17:17:29 fib1618: and then we'll likely see the 5% Trend travel this same road map into next week
2016-04-07 17:17:58 fib1618: downside price target remains at the $77 level
2016-04-07 17:18:11 fib1618: until we see a break down in the 5% component
2016-04-07 17:18:28 fib1618: and then the $76 level will then be doable
2016-04-07 17:18:31 fib1618: based on this then
2016-04-07 17:18:42 fib1618: those who are still long this basket of stocks
2016-04-07 17:18:51 fib1618: with the MCO and 10% below their zero lines
2016-04-07 17:18:59 fib1618: any future buying is now put on hold
2016-04-07 17:19:10 fib1618: but until we get both components below the zero line
2016-04-07 17:19:16 fib1618: we don't have a sell
2016-04-07 17:19:54 fib1618: and the $76 level will serve as our demarcation point as to when selling opportunities are to be taken advantage of
2016-04-07 17:20:32 fib1618: with selling short something to put on the back burner until the MCSUM joins the MCO below its zero line
2016-04-07 17:20:37 fib1618: so you stand aside until you get this change in trend confirmation
2016-04-07 17:21:03 fib1618: moving to the XLP breadth MCO
2016-04-07 17:21:17 fib1618: and here we see our first MCO that has not taken out its short term lows as yet
2016-04-07 17:21:26 fib1618: though it did make a lower low from Tuesday's reading
2016-04-07 17:21:41 fib1618: this then is a near term internal divergence structure
2016-04-07 17:22:21 fib1618: something of which we touched upon on Tuesday as needing to be seen if there were the opportunity of a tradable buy point
2016-04-07 17:22:37 fib1618: so as long as the mid March lows are not taken out
2016-04-07 17:22:52 fib1618: this would be an accumulation point in the pattern
2016-04-07 17:23:13 fib1618: what some brokers used to call a buying opportunity to add to positions
2016-04-07 17:23:33 fib1618: support here remains at the $52.50 level
2016-04-07 17:24:04 fib1618: moving to the XLE breadth MCO
2016-04-07 17:24:28 fib1618: and we continue to see mixed activity there
2016-04-07 17:24:51 fib1618: as the XLE breadth MCO continues to stay below its zero line
2016-04-07 17:25:03 fib1618: but didn't see the kind of selling we saw in the general market today
2016-04-07 17:25:29 fib1618: and we see that we had good action in the 10% Trend
2016-04-07 17:25:36 fib1618: as it moved back above its zero line on Wednesday
2016-04-07 17:25:46 fib1618: and only snapped back toward this same line today
2016-04-07 17:26:06 fib1618: this would then indicate that those who wanted to take money off the table have
2016-04-07 17:26:33 fib1618: and that we have a small buyer imbalance being created
2016-04-07 17:27:08 fib1618: note here that not only the lack of post separation to the downside in the XLE breadth MCSUM during this time
2016-04-07 17:27:26 fib1618: which would suggest that the sellers are showing very little power here
2016-04-07 17:27:35 fib1618: but we're also coming up on the +750 level
2016-04-07 17:27:42 fib1618: taken together
2016-04-07 17:28:07 fib1618: there's a very good chance that we're going to remain buoyant in this sector for the short term
2016-04-07 17:28:26 fib1618: and that any further selling is likely to come from other areas that would be deemed "over valued"
2016-04-07 17:28:44 fib1618: note also that the $60 level is holding
2016-04-07 17:29:25 fib1618: so if we do see this MCO take out its "snapback to zero line highs" at the end of March
2016-04-07 17:29:33 fib1618: along with a bullish crossover in the components
2016-04-07 17:29:55 fib1618: and that would be an re-initiation signal for this ETF
2016-04-07 17:30:13 fib1618: with $69-$70 the upside target
2016-04-07 17:30:42 fib1618: moving to the XLF breadth MCO
2016-04-07 17:31:06 fib1618: and here we note a very similar pattern structure to that of several of the more broadly based indices
2016-04-07 17:31:46 fib1618: making this sector one of several that are providing current price decay in this correction
2016-04-07 17:31:56 fib1618: if not the main culprit
2016-04-07 17:32:14 fib1618: with the lower low in the MCO
2016-04-07 17:32:46 fib1618: this was able to break below our first price support level mentioned last week at around $22
2016-04-07 17:33:11 fib1618: with $21.50 now acting as important near term support
2016-04-07 17:33:33 fib1618: nice rounding top formation on the daily price chart as well
2016-04-07 17:33:37 fib1618: so we'll have to watch that one as a possible proxy
2016-04-07 17:34:23 fib1618: since this sector would take the blunt of any further weakness on any continuation of looser monetary policy moving forward
2016-04-07 17:34:52 fib1618: could be, for instance, that the market may be starting to discount the FED taking away the 1/4 increase it pushed on the market late last year
2016-04-07 17:35:22 fib1618: then the consumer will hope that the banks will follow suit
2016-04-07 17:35:28 fib1618: or as we discussed last year
2016-04-07 17:35:48 fib1618: many small businesses would be begin to feel the pain of this same increase
2016-04-07 17:36:13 fib1618: got to tell you
2016-04-07 17:36:21 fib1618: business conditions continue to worsen in many areas
2016-04-07 17:36:36 fib1618: I keep shaking my head at the folks at the FED
2016-04-07 17:37:05 fib1618: they should get down in the trenches and see what's really going on instead of relying on out dated data
2016-04-07 17:37:12 fib1618: but I digress
2016-04-07 17:37:33 fib1618: as we expected last week
2016-04-07 17:37:49 fib1618: the XLV showed some upward movement this week
2016-04-07 17:38:08 fib1618: but with the XLV breadth MCO giving up all of its momentum today
2016-04-07 17:38:16 fib1618: this might turn out to be a false breakout
2016-04-07 17:38:24 fib1618: so the longs have to be careful
2016-04-07 17:39:12 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCSUM structure looks really weak here
2016-04-07 17:39:44 fib1618: and darn it all, the XLV breadth MCO also broke its small pattern of rising bottoms today
2016-04-07 17:39:57 fib1618: no sense in sticking around there...pass
2016-04-07 17:40:29 fib1618: OK...the XLI breadth MCO is slamming lower now
2016-04-07 17:40:49 fib1618: and since this was the sector that was the backbone of the rally from February 11th
2016-04-07 17:41:08 fib1618: the majority of this is profit taking
2016-04-07 17:41:40 fib1618: we moved down and through the +1250 level today as well
2016-04-07 17:41:49 fib1618: and with a -86 reading
2016-04-07 17:41:58 fib1618: we are deemed deeply "oversold" now
2016-04-07 17:42:12 fib1618: and with the 10% Trend showing a break of its zero line
2016-04-07 17:42:28 fib1618: let's look for an "inspirational" bounce as soon as tomorrow
2016-04-07 17:42:58 fib1618: but it's going to take us to just beyond next weeks OPEX now to fully reset things
2016-04-07 17:43:24 fib1618: so there's our first clue of where we should expect our next window of opportunity
2016-04-07 17:43:43 fib1618: this also means that we're likely to continue to see choppy, volatile behavior all of next week
2016-04-07 17:44:10 fib1618: although we moved to a lower low today in the XLB breadth MCO
2016-04-07 17:44:29 fib1618: we're not showing the same amplitude as we are with the XLI data
2016-04-07 17:45:12 fib1618: so this relationship we pointed to last week may be coming to an end
2016-04-07 17:46:14 fib1618: classic zero line snapback on the XLK breadth MCO on Wednesday
2016-04-07 17:46:31 fib1618: and then, whoosh...down we went today to the -54 level
2016-04-07 17:46:52 fib1618: with the XLK components still above their zero lines
2016-04-07 17:47:08 fib1618: let's look for stability to come into this sector quickly
2016-04-07 17:47:20 fib1618: with maybe a bounce back to the -25 level near term
2016-04-07 17:47:29 fib1618: before we see a challenge of today's MCO lows
2016-04-07 17:48:17 fib1618: and finally the crack from last weeks XLU breadth MCO turned into a rupture this week
2016-04-07 17:48:54 fib1618: and we're now in the process of reliving our deeply "overbought" seen late last month
2016-04-07 17:49:20 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor
2016-04-07 17:49:48 fib1618: and it looks we broke below the accelerated angle of ascent today on the XLU breadth MCSUM
2016-04-07 17:50:00 fib1618: and that secures us that a top is now in with this indicator
2016-04-07 17:50:18 fib1618: coming in at just below our target objective of +2500
2016-04-07 17:50:50 fib1618: the main trendline here comes in at around the +1750 level
2016-04-07 17:51:03 fib1618: so we'll going to see money continue to unwind here
2016-04-07 17:51:53 fib1618: with trendline price support coming in at around the $47.75 level
2016-04-07 17:51:56 fib1618: so...
2016-04-07 17:52:17 fib1618: we now have substantive evidence that a correctional sequence is indeed underway
2016-04-07 17:52:26 fib1618: and this will likely last through the end of next week
2016-04-07 17:52:44 mojave: Earnings kickoff & OpEx
2016-04-07 17:52:46 fib1618: with many of the MCSUM's still well above their +500 levels
2016-04-07 17:53:13 fib1618: this correction will be more of that of time than it will be in price
2016-04-07 17:53:17 fib1618: yep
2016-04-07 17:53:33 fib1618: seems the market has discounted a good 1st quarter overall
2016-04-07 17:54:01 fib1618: with any announcements of problems being taken out to the tool shed
2016-04-07 17:54:05 fib1618: otherwise
2016-04-07 17:54:36 fib1618: we have Consumer Staples, Technology and Utilities continuing to show strength
2016-04-07 17:54:57 fib1618: with the Industrials and Materials looking to take a well deserved breather
2016-04-07 17:55:08 fib1618: lets see how the OBV's are doing
2016-04-07 17:55:48 fib1618: STVO's are fully in sync now
2016-04-07 17:55:55 fib1618: having crossed simultaneously below their zero lines  today
2016-04-07 17:56:11 fib1618: some lessening of selling pressure noted in the CVI's compared with Tuesday
2016-04-07 17:56:25 fib1618: and this should give the buyers a bit of a boost on Friday
2016-04-07 17:56:43 fib1618: VTO's do continue to be over extended though
2016-04-07 17:56:52 fib1618: and until we see them ease off a bit
2016-04-07 17:57:15 fib1618: we're likely to continue to maintain a heaviness in prices for the time being
2016-04-07 17:57:33 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.29
2016-04-07 17:57:45 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.05
2016-04-07 17:57:51 fib1618: need to get that back to around 1.20 there
2016-04-07 17:58:19 fib1618: before we're likely to see a market bottom we can work with
2016-04-07 17:58:38 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.39
2016-04-07 17:58:45 fib1618: good selling there
2016-04-07 17:58:55 fib1618: Open 10 at .92
2016-04-07 17:59:00 fib1618: you know the story
2016-04-07 17:59:07 fib1618: we need to get back below 1.10
2016-04-07 17:59:22 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.38
2016-04-07 17:59:37 fib1618: Open 10 still stuck around the .97 area
2016-04-07 17:59:48 fib1618: so...
2016-04-07 18:00:08 fib1618: it would appear that we're getting a late start to our pause
2016-04-07 18:00:12 fib1618: but it's finally underway
2016-04-07 18:00:18 fib1618: at this point
2016-04-07 18:00:29 fib1618: the idea of a tradable bottom for this time period is off the table
2016-04-07 18:00:53 fib1618: and that it's likely to take until the week of 4/18 before we'll have that next opportunity
2016-04-07 18:01:15 fib1618: "hit and run" trading is now in full flower
2016-04-07 18:01:24 fib1618: and for the longs
2016-04-07 18:01:34 fib1618: we're on a hold
2016-04-07 18:01:40 fib1618: no new buying for now
2016-04-07 18:01:45 fib1618: but there's no rush to sell either
2016-04-07 18:01:58 fib1618: those who moved long with the BETS this week
2016-04-07 18:02:08 fib1618: watch your stops below market
2016-04-07 18:02:21 fib1618: and just remain disciplined here
2016-04-07 18:02:27 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2016-04-07 18:03:10 fib1618: AMEX data is still strong here
2016-04-07 18:03:22 fib1618: that would mean ETF's...precious metals and oil
2016-04-07 18:03:43 fib1618: Canada is doing well
2016-04-07 18:03:47 fib1618: good for commodities
2016-04-07 18:04:24 fib1618: need to recount [smile]
2016-04-07 18:05:05 fib1618: +30
2016-04-07 18:05:08 fib1618: it's up!
2016-04-07 18:05:36 fib1618: the TSX Venture is getting a lot of attention right now
2016-04-07 18:05:50 fib1618: anyway
2016-04-07 18:05:57 fib1618: we remain on a accumulation signal
2016-04-07 18:06:08 fib1618: and, in fact, improved 5 points
2016-04-07 18:06:19 fib1618: but there's always tomorrow [wink]
2016-04-07 18:06:22 fib1618: anything else?
2016-04-07 18:06:36 fib1618: and if Canada is improving
2016-04-07 18:06:50 fib1618: then Australia may not be far behind
2016-04-07 18:07:06 mojave: hard for me to believe to be honest...
2016-04-07 18:07:14 mojave: but follow the money
2016-04-07 18:07:17 fib1618: we'll see how the breadth numbers look this weekend
2016-04-07 18:07:19 fib1618: yep
2016-04-07 18:07:38 fib1618: we're just mere conduits
2016-04-07 18:07:44 fib1618: could be a blow off
2016-04-07 18:07:45 fib1618: then again
2016-04-07 18:07:58 fib1618: the US markets have been leading globally for the last 2 months
2016-04-07 18:08:14 fib1618: maybe its time money moves back into other global bourses (?)
2016-04-07 18:08:50 fib1618: No real action in the Ords right now
2016-04-07 18:09:08 fib1618: stuck in that bearish configuration
2016-04-07 18:09:26 fib1618: anything else?
2016-04-07 18:09:45 mojave: not here, tks
2016-04-07 18:09:59 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-04-07 18:10:03 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-04-07 18:10:08 fib1618: everyone have a super weekend
2016-04-07 18:10:12 fib1618: and we'll do this again on Tuesday
2016-04-07 18:10:14 fib1618: good night


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