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Posts: 5,161
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-04-05 16:00:05 fib1618: good day
2016-04-05 16:00:08 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-04-05 16:00:19 mojave: swell
2016-04-05 16:00:35 mojave: hope you're good!
2016-04-05 16:00:40 fib1618: well...golly gee...that's great to hear! [smile]
2016-04-05 16:00:46 fib1618: I'm fine...thanks for asking
2016-04-05 16:02:13 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-04-05 16:03:10 mojave: none here
2016-04-05 16:03:39 fib1618: I see we closed down today
2016-04-05 16:03:53 fib1618: must be follow up to Monday's NYSE MCO moving below its zero line
2016-04-05 16:05:02 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-04-05 16:05:40 fib1618: after peaking out at the +24 level last week
2016-04-05 16:06:01 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has moved down and through its zero line
2016-04-05 16:06:13 fib1618: winding up today with a reading of -50
2016-04-05 16:06:15 fib1618: as we know
2016-04-05 16:06:21 fib1618: when it comes to the MCO
2016-04-05 16:06:52 fib1618: we usually see natural support or resistance at the 25 intervals
2016-04-05 16:07:05 fib1618: so a technical bounce attempt should be seen here on Wednesday
2016-04-05 16:07:10 fib1618: looking at the CO components
2016-04-05 16:07:33 fib1618: and we see that the 10% Trend finished the day just below its zero line with a -13 reading
2016-04-05 16:07:44 fib1618: so, here too, a technical bounce would be indicated
2016-04-05 16:07:57 fib1618: and with the 5% Component still above its zero line
2016-04-05 16:08:11 fib1618: we also know that we are currently in a corrective sequence
2016-04-05 16:08:48 fib1618: with prices on the NYA chart challenging the lows seen in mid March
2016-04-05 16:09:15 fib1618: with no divergence between price and the MCO
2016-04-05 16:09:23 fib1618: so if this is a corrective sequence then
2016-04-05 16:09:51 fib1618: this price pattern has a high percentage opportunity of tracing out a triangle
2016-04-05 16:10:11 fib1618: with today acting as an Elliott "c" wave
2016-04-05 16:10:23 fib1618: which would mean 'd" up
2016-04-05 16:10:27 fib1618: "e" down
2016-04-05 16:10:37 fib1618: and then a final thrust to new price pattern highs
2016-04-05 16:11:16 fib1618: and if this is the correct interpretation
2016-04-05 16:11:42 fib1618: then we should see the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM find 250 increment support at or near the +750 level during this same corrective process
2016-04-05 16:12:01 fib1618: currently it has a reading of +820
2016-04-05 16:12:10 fib1618: so we have some air play in this regard
2016-04-05 16:12:21 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-04-05 16:12:51 fib1618: and here we see a very similar pattern structure to that of the CO MCO
2016-04-05 16:13:25 fib1618: but we are showing less internal breadth decay in the broader market with a reading today of -40
2016-04-05 16:13:57 fib1618: not surprising given the recent numbers in the interest rate sensitive issues overall
2016-04-05 16:15:08 fib1618: we also see this comparable strength between the composite and the CO issues in the NYSE Composite breadth MCO components
2016-04-05 16:16:00 fib1618: while the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM is now 17 net declining issues from reaching the +1000 level for a retest
2016-04-05 16:16:01 fib1618: so far
2016-04-05 16:16:07 fib1618: as we suspected last week
2016-04-05 16:16:37 fib1618: the lack of solid volume plurality is causing this current decay in the structures
2016-04-05 16:17:09 fib1618: and this reset should lead to at least one more attempt to drive prices toward the fall 2015 price highs
2016-04-05 16:20:38 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-04-05 16:20:46 fib1618: and here we finally moved to a lower low today
2016-04-05 16:20:56 fib1618: helping to reaffirm the current weakness in the NYSE
2016-04-05 16:21:12 fib1618: looking at the NASDAQ 10% Trend
2016-04-05 16:21:20 fib1618: and we see that it closed at the zero line today
2016-04-05 16:21:28 fib1618: so a technical bounce is indicated here near term
2016-04-05 16:22:06 fib1618: with probable support for the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM coming in at the +300 level
2016-04-05 16:22:26 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2016-04-05 16:22:35 fib1618: and here too we moved to new lows now
2016-04-05 16:22:49 fib1618: and finishing up at the -30 level
2016-04-05 16:23:10 fib1618: the NDX components remain nicely above their zero lines
2016-04-05 16:23:40 fib1618: while the NDX breadth MCSUM has now snapped back down toward the +750 level
2016-04-05 16:24:07 fib1618: so a corrective sequence here as well
2016-04-05 16:24:26 fib1618: with price support coming in at the 4400 level
2016-04-05 16:25:05 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO has also moved sharply lower and below its zero line today
2016-04-05 16:25:23 fib1618: coming in today with a reading of -46
2016-04-05 16:25:42 fib1618: so close enough to the -50 level to where a technical bounce could happen at any time
2016-04-05 16:26:25 fib1618: with the SPX MCO components still positive though in a crossover negative configuration
2016-04-05 16:27:02 fib1618: the relative weakness we saw last week in the OEX and Dow breadth MCO's have now come home to roost
2016-04-05 16:27:41 fib1618: as both have now moved below their zero lines
2016-04-05 16:28:27 fib1618: with the OEX MCO 10% trend now indicating that a technical bounce off its zero line is to be expected near term
2016-04-05 16:29:04 fib1618: and in all three cases on the SPX, OEX and Dow
2016-04-05 16:29:35 fib1618: upside price targets that were given by their MCO's from last month have now been met
2016-04-05 16:29:50 fib1618: so as good as point as any for a pause to take place
2016-04-05 16:29:52 fib1618: then again
2016-04-05 16:30:17 fib1618: we've been said this twice before and the market has had other ideas
2016-04-05 16:30:36 fib1618: so we'll see if there's any teeth to this one as we move along
2016-04-05 16:38:26 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO moved sharply lower today
2016-04-05 16:38:41 fib1618: and wound up with a reading of -58
2016-04-05 16:38:49 fib1618: so quite a sell off today
2016-04-05 16:39:02 fib1618: but looking at the 10% Component
2016-04-05 16:39:14 fib1618: and we finished there with a reading of -8
2016-04-05 16:39:25 fib1618: so a near zero line bounce is likely near term
2016-04-05 16:39:36 fib1618: and overall
2016-04-05 16:39:47 fib1618: we are now on a short term corrective sequence
2016-04-05 16:40:09 fib1618: with price support likely at the 1400 level
2016-04-05 16:40:38 fib1618: the MID breadth MCSUM has also moved toward the +1000 level with a reading of +1023 today
2016-04-05 16:40:50 fib1618: so we can allow for one more day of back and fill
2016-04-05 16:40:56 fib1618: but with the MCSUM as high as it is
2016-04-05 16:41:04 fib1618: that's about all the sellers are likely to get at this time
2016-04-05 16:41:23 fib1618: same kind of situation with the SML breadth MCO
2016-04-05 16:41:32 fib1618: settling today with a -51 reading
2016-04-05 16:41:37 fib1618: so a near term bounce here is also likely
2016-04-05 16:42:05 fib1618: and we note that the +750 level on the SML breadth MCSUM has held so far
2016-04-05 16:42:39 fib1618: so any kind of downside follow through that we may see here will allow for the next challenge here to test the +500 MCSUM level
2016-04-05 16:42:59 fib1618: good price support at 660 for now
2016-04-05 16:43:14 fib1618: and this should be as good as it gets for now
2016-04-05 16:43:38 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO wound up with a -29 reading
2016-04-05 16:44:03 fib1618: with a negative crossover on the TM MCO components
2016-04-05 16:44:11 fib1618: but both remaining above their zero line
2016-04-05 16:44:18 fib1618: so...
2016-04-05 16:44:28 fib1618: after the saw the thrust engines shut down last week
2016-04-05 16:44:54 fib1618: which lurched us backward and then, just as suddenly, forward
2016-04-05 16:45:21 fib1618: we see that prices have begun to decay with this lack of forward energy
2016-04-05 16:45:39 fib1618: many of the indices remain corrective at this time on a short term trending basis
2016-04-05 16:46:38 fib1618: and this pull back could be what we've been looking for to occur on an anticipation of a tradable bottom that was scheduled for this time period
2016-04-05 16:47:00 fib1618: on the flip side
2016-04-05 16:47:09 fib1618: we now have bearish divergence in place along a wide front
2016-04-05 16:47:34 fib1618: with the good news that the market is now back in sync with all of the MCO's moving back below their zero lines today
2016-04-05 16:48:03 fib1618: what we'll probably find is that volume did not come as let's take a look at that
2016-04-05 16:48:23 mojave: MCO's just spent 6 weeks > 0
2016-04-05 16:48:37 mojave: maybe some balance
2016-04-05 16:48:38 fib1618: that too
2016-04-05 16:48:44 fib1618: more than likely...
2016-04-05 16:48:53 fib1618: that would be a reasonable expectation to be sure
2016-04-05 16:49:11 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite and CO volume MCO's
2016-04-05 16:49:28 fib1618: and we see that they continue to echo the path of their breadth cousins
2016-04-05 16:49:58 fib1618: though showing lower levels of amplitude during last week's run up in prices
2016-04-05 16:50:24 fib1618: the good news here though
2016-04-05 16:50:46 fib1618: is that both of the 10% volume components are either at or just above their zero lines
2016-04-05 16:50:55 fib1618: so a technical bounce is not only indicated near term
2016-04-05 16:51:15 fib1618: but this confirms that the last two days of trading action are corrective in nature and NOT a change in trend
2016-04-05 16:51:37 fib1618: looking at the NASDAQ volume MCO
2016-04-05 16:51:45 fib1618: and here we barely moved to a lower low today
2016-04-05 16:52:06 fib1618: while the components remain well elevated above their zero lines
2016-04-05 16:52:36 fib1618: and this buoyancy in the internals is going to keep prices from moving lower in any important way for the time being
2016-04-05 16:53:09 fib1618: we saw a bit more selling taking place in the NDX volume MCO
2016-04-05 16:53:25 fib1618: and with it
2016-04-05 16:54:03 fib1618: a bit more comparable weakness in the NDX volume components compared to the NASDAQ Composite data
2016-04-05 16:54:43 fib1618: same scenario with the SPX volume MCO and its components
2016-04-05 16:55:05 fib1618: with a near term technical bounce likely by Thursday
2016-04-05 16:55:40 fib1618: there was enough selling today in the OEX volume MCO to move it back below its zero line
2016-04-05 16:56:04 fib1618: but in no way are we seeing more than basic rotation
2016-04-05 16:56:20 fib1618: as the reading today is only a -17
2016-04-05 16:56:34 fib1618: in fact
2016-04-05 16:56:39 fib1618: the Dow volume MCO is still positive
2016-04-05 16:56:43 fib1618: and moving net sideways
2016-04-05 16:56:57 fib1618: closing today with a +20
2016-04-05 16:57:34 fib1618: this would suggest that we could see some nice strength in this index of 30 issues on any technical bounce here
2016-04-05 16:57:53 fib1618: and that would go hand in hand to the generals leading the troops
2016-04-05 16:58:07 fib1618: which usually happens near the end of a trending move in prices
2016-04-05 16:58:10 fib1618: we'll see
2016-04-05 16:58:53 fib1618: last week's profound weakness in the MID volume MCO has led to a reading today of -55
2016-04-05 16:59:46 fib1618: and a definitive break to the downside in the MID volume MCSUM from its sideways topping structure
2016-04-05 17:00:14 fib1618: lower lows as well in the SML volume MCO
2016-04-05 17:00:36 fib1618: while the SML volume components both remain above their zero lines
2016-04-05 17:00:48 fib1618: so corrective activity confirmed here as well
2016-04-05 17:01:32 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO closed today with a -24 reading
2016-04-05 17:01:51 fib1618: so a natural technical bounce is also indicated here in the next couple of days
2016-04-05 17:01:54 fib1618: so...
2016-04-05 17:02:18 fib1618: our caution flag of a possible turn in the MCO's based on the weaker volume readings has come to pass
2016-04-05 17:02:51 fib1618: and now we've had enough of a decline in many of the breadth and volume MCO's that a snapback to or toward the MCO zero lines is now to be expected
2016-04-05 17:03:04 fib1618: from there
2016-04-05 17:03:22 fib1618: in order to get our "buy point"
2016-04-05 17:03:38 fib1618: we would need to see a price rally with this internal bounce
2016-04-05 17:04:12 fib1618: and then a divergent close as we test the corrective closing prices of mid March
2016-04-05 17:04:27 fib1618: that would then serve as our buy point
2016-04-05 17:04:55 fib1618: and this would be further re-enforced if the BETS remains on an accumulation signal
2016-04-05 17:05:10 fib1618: so let's jump to that now before we hit the OBV's and TRIN's
2016-04-05 17:06:12 fib1618: +25
2016-04-05 17:06:29 fib1618: so, yes, we're still on an accumulation signal
2016-04-05 17:06:41 fib1618: though hard to do at this time given how far we've come
2016-04-05 17:06:51 fib1618: so you really have to do your homework here
2016-04-05 17:07:00 fib1618: did Alcoa announce today?
2016-04-05 17:07:11 fib1618: let me check
2016-04-05 17:07:17 mojave: next wk
2016-04-05 17:08:00 fib1618: next week?
2016-04-05 17:08:05 fib1618: oh...
2016-04-05 17:08:08 fib1618: yes
2016-04-05 17:08:13 fib1618: it's usually the 2nd week of April
2016-04-05 17:08:20 fib1618: and the jobs data threw me as being the first week
2016-04-05 17:08:31 fib1618: my bad on the weekend breadth review
2016-04-05 17:08:56 fib1618: OBV's
2016-04-05 17:09:47 fib1618: sharp moves to the downside in all the CVI's
2016-04-05 17:10:09 fib1618: and this has finally pushed the VTO's south from their "overbought" readings of last week
2016-04-05 17:10:36 fib1618: STVO's we'll call neutral
2016-04-05 17:10:55 fib1618: but it's going to take "oversold" readings there to produce a bottom to the current corrective sequence
2016-04-05 17:11:26 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.08
2016-04-05 17:11:42 fib1618: so a lessening of selling pressure today compared with the last couple of days
2016-04-05 17:11:53 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.10
2016-04-05 17:11:59 fib1618: so we're back to "oversold"
2016-04-05 17:12:11 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.01
2016-04-05 17:12:22 fib1618: Open 10 neutral at .89
2016-04-05 17:12:33 fib1618: so one side is about to take control
2016-04-05 17:12:51 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.09
2016-04-05 17:13:00 fib1618: Open 10 at .96
2016-04-05 17:13:07 fib1618: and giving little information to work by
2016-04-05 17:13:16 fib1618: so...
2016-04-05 17:13:32 fib1618: it would appear that we have your standard fare correctional sequence right now
2016-04-05 17:13:47 fib1618: with a technical bounce due near term
2016-04-05 17:13:57 fib1618: and then another back and fill period going into next week
2016-04-05 17:14:10 fib1618: where OPEX comes in on Friday the 15th
2016-04-05 17:14:28 fib1618: now that the 1st quarter is out of the way
2016-04-05 17:14:49 fib1618: it continues to look good for a "pause to refresh" to take place
2016-04-05 17:14:53 fib1618: problem is
2016-04-05 17:15:08 fib1618: that the MCSUM's generally remain elevated
2016-04-05 17:15:18 fib1618: and this is going to keep any downside action to a minimum
2016-04-05 17:15:31 fib1618: overall...chop is the name of game for now
2016-04-05 17:15:49 fib1618: so "hit and run" scalping techniques are advised for now
2016-04-05 17:15:57 fib1618: anything else?
2016-04-05 17:16:19 fib1618: let me check sentiment
2016-04-05 17:17:12 fib1618: Mark's survey this week is at 30% bulls/55% bears
2016-04-05 17:17:22 fib1618: so nothing frothy there
2016-04-05 17:18:45 fib1618: 10 day OEX P/C ratio is now at levels seen at the end of February
2016-04-05 17:18:55 fib1618: so the put buyers are back in force
2016-04-05 17:19:16 fib1618: now that SC has inverted the data here
2016-04-05 17:20:10 fib1618: you can see how this indicator coincides with low points
2016-04-05 17:20:21 fib1618: DPMI 1130
2016-04-05 17:21:10 fib1618: you can also the sharp rise in the CBOE P/C ratio as well
2016-04-05 17:21:22 mojave: yep
2016-04-05 17:21:52 fib1618: let's see what else?
2016-04-05 17:22:44 fib1618: gold continues to chop away between its 20 day 50 day EMA's
2016-04-05 17:23:05 fib1618: interest rates on the 10 year continue to plummet
2016-04-05 17:23:17 fib1618: now at 1.73%
2016-04-05 17:23:56 fib1618: CRB index continue to plow lower
2016-04-05 17:24:17 fib1618: now down 7% in 3 weeks
2016-04-05 17:24:38 fib1618: the pattern looks like what crude looked like before the final push into the February lows
2016-04-05 17:25:13 fib1618: and if anyone doesn't believe that EMA's are forces to work with
2016-04-05 17:25:29 fib1618: placing a 200 day EMA on WTIC will help convince you otherwise
2016-04-05 17:25:46 fib1618: looks bearish there
2016-04-05 17:25:55 fib1618: with a break below the 50 day EMA yesterday
2016-04-05 17:26:00 fib1618: only to snapback to it today
2016-04-05 17:26:09 fib1618: make or break time there
2016-04-05 17:26:30 fib1618: a failure to close higher on Wednesday
2016-04-05 17:26:40 fib1618: would open up a trip back down to the $30 level
2016-04-05 17:26:46 fib1618: and that's 20%
2016-04-05 17:27:22 fib1618: whether the correlation between stocks and crude have separated at this stage is still up for debate
2016-04-05 17:27:44 fib1618: and that's about it
2016-04-05 17:27:48 fib1618: anything else on your minds?
2016-04-05 17:28:56 fib1618: any breakdowns in patterns that might be important here?
2016-04-05 17:29:01 fib1618: oh...let's check the Dollar
2016-04-05 17:29:25 fib1618: critical level here at 94
2016-04-05 17:29:30 fib1618: make or break
2016-04-05 17:29:36 mojave: imo stocks will continue to be tied to crude
2016-04-05 17:30:00 fib1618:'s been shown the the multi nationals have been
2016-04-05 17:30:11 fib1618: but with a more positive monetary policy outlook
2016-04-05 17:30:45 fib1618: the growth stocks may hold up better than they did in January when it was expected to see Fed Funds rate to increase significantly
2016-04-05 17:31:11 fib1618: one of the reasons why stocks have rallied into last week while crude has been declining for 3
2016-04-05 17:31:23 fib1618: sure...some influence
2016-04-05 17:31:28 fib1618: but not as much as before
2016-04-05 17:31:30 fib1618: unless
2016-04-05 17:31:34 fib1618: you're down under [smile]
2016-04-05 17:32:15 mojave: ha
2016-04-05 17:32:53 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-04-05 17:33:01 fib1618: it's time for Mike to get back to work [smile]
2016-04-05 17:33:13 fib1618: everyone have a great rest of your day
2016-04-05 17:33:19 fib1618: and we'll see how things look on Thursday
2016-04-05 17:33:21 fib1618: good night
2016-04-05 17:33:22 mojave: you too, tks

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