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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-04-05 15:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-04-05 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-04-05 16:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice intimate group today
2012-04-05 16:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for coming!
2012-04-05 16:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kinda forgot that Friday the markets were closed
2012-04-05 16:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how strange is that...
2012-04-05 16:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the jobs data still scheduled for 8:30??
2012-04-05 16:03:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2012-04-05 16:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-04-05 16:03:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Would the internals match up with an irregular flat here? I don't much care for the move to the last high as motive, and as strong as this market has been-to be honest-I've been expecting an irregular flat, odds wise.
2012-04-05 16:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll examine that idea...
2012-04-05 16:04:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2012-04-05 16:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure nuff
2012-04-05 16:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll be getting a fresh look from Tuesday today...didn't look at any data yesterday
2012-04-05 16:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm pretty confident of what to expect here
2012-04-05 16:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK, let me get DP up and we'll get going
2012-04-05 16:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after snapping back to the zero line on Tuesday
2012-04-05 16:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO broke support yesterday and moved to new lows for this sequence
2012-04-05 16:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that pretty much puts to bed any chance of a tradable BOTTOM for at least a couple of weeks
2012-04-05 16:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's technical breakdown in the CO MCO also provided the opportunity for the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM to break its intermediate term rising bottoms line from last summers lows
2012-04-05 16:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now accelerating to the downside
2012-04-05 16:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we mentioned last Thursday
2012-04-05 16:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market was sensing something over the horizon
2012-04-05 16:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and minus our anticipated last ditch rally of Friday and into Monday
2012-04-05 16:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it now seems that a more prolonged rest will be needed before we'll establish a new foot hold from where we'll be able to climb again
2012-04-05 16:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike the last couple of breaks below the zero line
2012-04-05 16:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE MCO components are also below their zero line
2012-04-05 16:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taken together then
2012-04-05 16:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a nice sell signal in play in which we unloaded our positions on Friday/Monday
2012-04-05 16:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we have full stops in place while we watch the action
2012-04-05 16:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: staying with the components
2012-04-05 16:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now in a position where a snapback to or towards the zero line would be our next technical expectation which, in this case, will probably be on Monday
2012-04-05 16:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCSUM
2012-04-05 16:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our break of trend
2012-04-05 16:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be no problem at all to now look for this MCSUM to move briskly to its zero line
2012-04-05 16:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see that it passed through the +250 level today without much in the way of support
2012-04-05 16:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with any snapback in the components
2012-04-05 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll probably be close to today's reading on Monday before picking up further momentum to our zero line objective
2012-04-05 16:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA price pattern itself
2012-04-05 16:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it appears that it continued to respect the lower range of our consolidation pattern today
2012-04-05 16:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would further support at least some follow through bounce higher on Monday as well
2012-04-05 16:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a small point change tonight on the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2012-04-05 16:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading days
2012-04-05 16:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...that would put us in Monday/Tuesday
2012-04-05 16:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are also minimally "oversold" on the MCO
2012-04-05 16:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would also support a bounce
2012-04-05 16:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but because we took out the preceding low in the process
2012-04-05 16:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to have take some time and build a new foundation from where we can again support an advancing price pattern structure
2012-04-05 16:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2012-04-05 16:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the 10% now below its zero line
2012-04-05 16:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% remains above its zero line
2012-04-05 16:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we remain in corrective mode on a broadly based basis
2012-04-05 16:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are also now approaching the +500 level on the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-04-05 16:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will tend to keep prices from moving with any degree of momentum to the downside at this point in time
2012-04-05 16:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor here as well
2012-04-05 16:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we right at or are slightly below the divergent rising bottoms line on the MCSUM that got this whole thing started
2012-04-05 16:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so an extended breather is implied now by this same test and/or break of trend
2012-04-05 16:22:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO as well
2012-04-05 16:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now finally accelerating to the downside as was our expectation last week after it found moving back above the +250 level too much of a challenge to overcome
2012-04-05 16:23:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor here
2012-04-05 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the rising bottoms line on this MCSUM crosses somewhere around the zero line
2012-04-05 16:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the trend remains higher...at least for now
2012-04-05 16:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ MCO components
2012-04-05 16:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have a sell signal confirmation as well
2012-04-05 16:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ price pattern itself
2012-04-05 16:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the volume is there
2012-04-05 16:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a nice island top in play here
2012-04-05 16:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the daily volume
2012-04-05 16:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...tough call
2012-04-05 16:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be
2012-04-05 16:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the highs are questionable
2012-04-05 16:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the pattern does compliment the island reversal we saw about a month ago
2012-04-05 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the one thing we know about charting
2012-04-05 16:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that there always seem to be a balance in patterns
2012-04-05 16:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some work with fractals in this fashion
2012-04-05 16:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you one throw-over in one direction
2012-04-05 16:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll tend to get in the other to provide longer term balance
2012-04-05 16:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same idea here with the island reversals
2012-04-05 16:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...sometimes island reversals can be a good indication of a change in trend
2012-04-05 16:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but their pattern predictability tends to carry more weight in the futures market than that of cash
2012-04-05 16:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...it's there for digestion
2012-04-05 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should be respected for what it MAY imply
2012-04-05 16:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX chart pattern
2012-04-05 16:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have partially closed the downside gap we had yesterday
2012-04-05 16:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which takes the idea of an island reversal off the table
2012-04-05 16:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as these gaps are rarely, if ever, filled
2012-04-05 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCO
2012-04-05 16:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we moved to minimally "oversold" yesterday
2012-04-05 16:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we saw our obligatory bounce off this area today
2012-04-05 16:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM moved down and through the +750 level today
2012-04-05 16:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember back to last Tuesday's (I think) discussion of the possible divergent double top
2012-04-05 16:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that trigger would come when and if the early March lows on this MCSUM are broken
2012-04-05 16:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until then
2012-04-05 16:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern is likely still locked in a trading range
2012-04-05 16:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX components
2012-04-05 16:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they remain corrective
2012-04-05 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then, there's been a lot of excitement again with this shake out we had yesterday
2012-04-05 16:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bears still have a whole lot of work to do to really put the pressure on for a trend change
2012-04-05 16:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I read our third crash call post just 30 minutes ago
2012-04-05 16:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's just in the last 2 days
2012-04-05 16:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what have done so far?
2012-04-05 16:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...yea...declined 1%
2012-04-05 16:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically though
2012-04-05 16:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have enough now to where we could move out of this choppy trading range to the downside
2012-04-05 16:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2012-04-05 16:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's still a whole lot of water left in the pool where if the pressure isn't constant, any slip of the ball, will tend to push prices higher without too much of a problem
2012-04-05 16:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX
2012-04-05 16:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have enough of a breakdown in the SPX breadth MCO to look for a price target of 1350
2012-04-05 16:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also serve as a snapback point to what were the high water marks of last year
2012-04-05 16:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Lew...you still have 1370 on your radar?
2012-04-05 16:38:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2012-04-05 16:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to get there
2012-04-05 16:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll need to see the SPX breadth MCSUM move below the +500 level
2012-04-05 16:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a reading of +534
2012-04-05 16:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will probably happen next week
2012-04-05 16:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also
2012-04-05 16:39:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that yesterday's decline was again on the back of an old friend for the bearish viewpoint
2012-04-05 16:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Europe
2012-04-05 16:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this time around
2012-04-05 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Spanish debt auction saw little in the way of support
2012-04-05 16:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember what we talked about a month ago?
2012-04-05 16:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was the next country on the list of a problem after Greece...?
2012-04-05 16:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, Spain (and maybe Portugal)
2012-04-05 16:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2012-04-05 16:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is like watching a movie or TV program and you know exactly how a story is going to play out because you've seen it all before
2012-04-05 16:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the happy ending here
2012-04-05 16:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that
2012-04-05 16:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this too will be taken care of as well
2012-04-05 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the ECB and the UK in the last couple of days
2012-04-05 16:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no changes in their policies
2012-04-05 16:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the ECB in full QE mode at 1% and the UK at 1/2%
2012-04-05 16:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2012-04-05 16:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter what happens here during this correctional period
2012-04-05 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will NOT be because of a lack of liquidity
2012-04-05 16:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we can get sentiment as negative as we saw it last fall
2012-04-05 16:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at a much higher price point on the daily charts
2012-04-05 16:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is going to set the stage for our eventual challenge of the all time highs on the large cap indexes
2012-04-05 16:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now
2012-04-05 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a longer rest is needed here
2012-04-05 16:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be honest
2012-04-05 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many of the MCSUM's as high as they are right now
2012-04-05 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially in the volume area of which we went over on Tuesday
2012-04-05 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for us to continue higher from here (in theory)
2012-04-05 16:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we're going to need to see better buyer to seller ratios that would promote such a structure
2012-04-05 16:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...
2012-04-05 16:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw the rocket lift off in December
2012-04-05 16:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the engines shut down at the beginning of March
2012-04-05 16:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the momentum of the move is behind us
2012-04-05 16:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now the force of gravity, the bear market default, will start to have more and more influence on the direction of the rocket
2012-04-05 16:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we said last Thursday
2012-04-05 16:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a nice ride...but now it's time for a reset
2012-04-05 16:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that began with yesterday's breakdown in both the MCO's
2012-04-05 16:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the break of trend in the NYSE MCSUM's
2012-04-05 16:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2012-04-05 16:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also moved sharply lower yesterday
2012-04-05 16:49:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this momentum was enough for the OEX breadth MCSUM to not only break below the +750 level
2012-04-05 16:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also broke below its early March lows today
2012-04-05 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price chart
2012-04-05 16:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback to the 600 breakout level could be in the cards here as well
2012-04-05 16:51:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX components also showing corrective activity...with a bounce expected near term
2012-04-05 16:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the Dow breadth MCO
2012-04-05 16:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here the Dow breadth MCSUM remains above its March lows
2012-04-05 16:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the Dow price pattern
2012-04-05 16:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a comparable snapback to last years highs would give us a target of 12750
2012-04-05 16:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is only 300 points away
2012-04-05 16:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that our trading range of the last 3 weeks is 250 points wide
2012-04-05 16:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this shouldn't be too much of a problem to reach
2012-04-05 16:53:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can be sure that the anxiety level will be turned up several notches once we move below the current trading range
2012-04-05 16:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the 13000 level
2012-04-05 16:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-04-05 16:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the big headline yesterday on Drudge was "will 13,000 hold?" in big red letters 
2012-04-05 16:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the masses are watching this level evidently
2012-04-05 16:55:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: as with the SPX, I don't care for the shape of the last leg up there
2012-04-05 16:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any break will be accompanied by brazen bearish calls for catastrophes of one type or the other
2012-04-05 16:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, it was choppy Lew
2012-04-05 16:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one could say it had a wedge look to the pattern
2012-04-05 16:55:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see it on the hourly charts
2012-04-05 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2012-04-05 16:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'll stick my head out a little here
2012-04-05 16:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but just like we kidded last week
2012-04-05 16:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you watch
2012-04-05 16:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break of 13,000
2012-04-05 16:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Prechter will be doing 3 interviews
2012-04-05 16:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've got to remember
2012-04-05 16:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears were absolutely slaughtered on this last advance
2012-04-05 16:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and every call for a top was met with higher price highs
2012-04-05 16:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are bruised, battered, angry and hungry for revenge
2012-04-05 16:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ANY little indication of this kind of vindication
2012-04-05 16:58:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they are going to make it known their true feelings on the subject
2012-04-05 16:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they will again provide the very same ammunition that they had before
2012-04-05 16:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but failed to work
2012-04-05 16:58:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know their temperament like the back of my hand
2012-04-05 16:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you watch
2012-04-05 16:59:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed!
2012-04-05 16:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the more they tend to gang up and tell us "we told you so"
2012-04-05 16:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the time to watch your put/call ratios
2012-04-05 16:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: particularly ISEE and the OEX
2012-04-05 16:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISEE has been in the high 90's pretty much all week
2012-04-05 17:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so some have either learned their lesson
2012-04-05 17:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have been burned too many times
2012-04-05 17:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or they are out of money
2012-04-05 17:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as many of the very low readings we had on the ISEE came before March Opex
2012-04-05 17:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember all the talk of people quitting TA just a week ago because it didn't work?
2012-04-05 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch...all of sudden it will start to work again
2012-04-05 17:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is all very typical market behavior during strong trends
2012-04-05 17:01:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can be bears in bull structures
2012-04-05 17:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and bulls in bear structures
2012-04-05 17:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market isn't prejudice
2012-04-05 17:02:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will take as much money away from whatever majority has implied control that it can
2012-04-05 17:02:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the "rigged" posts are a tell to me, as well
2012-04-05 17:02:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is rather amusing
2012-04-05 17:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rigged? how?
2012-04-05 17:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh
2012-04-05 17:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry
2012-04-05 17:02:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: they say the market is rigged
2012-04-05 17:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm thinking of the posts on the floor of the exchange
2012-04-05 17:03:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: because they are using incorrect TA
2012-04-05 17:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're talking about that age old excuse of that the market can't move lower because this or that is not "letting it"
2012-04-05 17:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-04-05 17:03:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2012-04-05 17:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and isn't it funny
2012-04-05 17:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we haven't seen one post on the PPT on this whole advance
2012-04-05 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the Trilateral Commission
2012-04-05 17:04:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not PPT, now it's Bernanke solo
2012-04-05 17:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember them
2012-04-05 17:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know
2012-04-05 17:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's so silly
2012-04-05 17:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and he's responsible for the whole global reach of the United States monetary policy
2012-04-05 17:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what a job
2012-04-05 17:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't want it
2012-04-05 17:05:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: NO
2012-04-05 17:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that and President
2012-04-05 17:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but those who bring this kind of thing up when making a technical post are not looking at the markets objectively
2012-04-05 17:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they allow everyone to know their bias
2012-04-05 17:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's not how you show consistency in your trading
2012-04-05 17:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, of course
2012-04-05 17:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone called the top last week, remember?
2012-04-05 17:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still
2012-04-05 17:06:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're in a trading range
2012-04-05 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only down 1%
2012-04-05 17:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really kind of funny
2012-04-05 17:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-04-05 17:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the charts...as I know most want to take a long weekend
2012-04-05 17:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same scenario with the MID breadth MCO
2012-04-05 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as tops beneath tops control that pattern
2012-04-05 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a more prolonged back and fill period is now necessary before there's going to be a chance to break above the 1000 price level on the MID
2012-04-05 17:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2012-04-05 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2012-04-05 17:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also found resistance at the +250 level just too much to overcome
2012-04-05 17:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...since we're on the subject
2012-04-05 17:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the answer is yes
2012-04-05 17:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would qualify as a Summation Failure pattern in progress since we did find zero line support
2012-04-05 17:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we were not able to move back above the +250 level
2012-04-05 17:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, in this case, since the NYSE composite breadth MCSUM is still well above it's zero line
2012-04-05 17:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we might feel some shaking going on as we pass down and through the zero lines on both
2012-04-05 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we probably won't see any good follow through to where a "crash like" event could take place
2012-04-05 17:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...it could be a point in which we're likely to see either a break out of the trading range
2012-04-05 17:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or
2012-04-05 17:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a test of the early March lows
2012-04-05 17:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the close range we are to the zero line here
2012-04-05 17:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more likely to be a break of the trading range
2012-04-05 17:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had a break of the uptrend line on the SML breadth MCSUM as well yesterday
2012-04-05 17:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what this really means to our daily trading is that
2012-04-05 17:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike before where we might had sell offs in the morning and later recovered much, if not all, of this opening weakness into the close
2012-04-05 17:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will now tend to stay underwater for the majority of the day more and more
2012-04-05 17:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the power shifts from buyers to sellers on any move down and through the MCSUM zero line
2012-04-05 17:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so will our directional "hit and run" plays
2012-04-05 17:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case...better to hit and run on advances
2012-04-05 17:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and allow any profits on the downside to build
2012-04-05 17:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2012-04-05 17:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it must be fully understood here
2012-04-05 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with the NYSE composite MCSUM still well above its zero line
2012-04-05 17:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a change in trend is NOT indicated here
2012-04-05 17:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: backing and filling
2012-04-05 17:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and correctional rotation
2012-04-05 17:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is all we should be looking for here
2012-04-05 17:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the bigger context of what may turn out to be an historic market advance
2012-04-05 17:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2012-04-05 17:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-04-05 17:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have finally broken through the bulls defensive line
2012-04-05 17:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are now in a position to pick up some good yardage
2012-04-05 17:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably pick up their scoring drives as well
2012-04-05 17:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in all cases here
2012-04-05 17:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important focus for everyone will be that early March spike we see in all of the MCO's
2012-04-05 17:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as that point in the pattern is not taken out
2012-04-05 17:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the uptrend will remain intact
2012-04-05 17:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what began yesterday is likely the beginning of the final pouring of the cement for our platform for the next leg higher
2012-04-05 17:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break of that low though would definitely call this idea into question
2012-04-05 17:20:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now...we've have banked any profits made on the uptrend
2012-04-05 17:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are now waiting for more information as to the best course of action
2012-04-05 17:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any open long positions are to be monitored
2012-04-05 17:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but one things for sure
2012-04-05 17:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Apple is hanging in there nicely
2012-04-05 17:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to new all time highs today - up another 9
2012-04-05 17:21:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: we bought 50 cent AAPL calls this morning, sold them for $4.5
2012-04-05 17:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until that issue breaks...
2012-04-05 17:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow!
2012-04-05 17:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great trade!
2012-04-05 17:21:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 630 weekies
2012-04-05 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2012-04-05 17:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: big smiles
2012-04-05 17:22:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx, we were looking for it early
2012-04-05 17:22:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: aapl is quite resilient
2012-04-05 17:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...Priceline also closed at new all time highs today too!
2012-04-05 17:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 10 at 756
2012-04-05 17:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2012-04-05 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all this crash talk
2012-04-05 17:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's going to get louder and louder
2012-04-05 17:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market will build on this negative sentiment
2012-04-05 17:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is really an amazing market right now
2012-04-05 17:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's jump to the volume oscillators and TRIN and call it a day
2012-04-05 17:25:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are STILL neutral
2012-04-05 17:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until that breaks either way, we're locked in this current trading range
2012-04-05 17:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we now have definite breakdown in the VTO's
2012-04-05 17:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're pretty much neutral there as well
2012-04-05 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely
2012-04-05 17:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll get a bounce off this zero line near term
2012-04-05 17:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll see how it goes
2012-04-05 17:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN 1.59
2012-04-05 17:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.07
2012-04-05 17:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2012-04-05 17:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .74
2012-04-05 17:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now "oversold" at 1.00
2012-04-05 17:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .92
2012-04-05 17:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.05
2012-04-05 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and folks
2012-04-05 17:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the Open 10's are "oversold" across the board like this
2012-04-05 17:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it suggests that it fairly tough to mount up any kind of price decay
2012-04-05 17:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here's another indication of a reflex higher early next week
2012-04-05 17:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2012-04-05 17:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if Israel decided to retaliate into Egyptian territory over the weekend or the jobs number tomorrow comes in worse than expected....
2012-04-05 17:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who really knows
2012-04-05 17:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2012-04-05 17:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically
2012-04-05 17:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a bounce on Monday
2012-04-05 17:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will probably extend into Tuesday
2012-04-05 17:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll then see then how things look and try to put a timeline on how much longer we're likely to back and fill
2012-04-05 17:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-04-05 17:31:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it's funny, I think this is the first time since I've known you that you are a bit more bearish than me
2012-04-05 17:31:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wonder what that means....
2012-04-05 17:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: naw
2012-04-05 17:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not bearish
2012-04-05 17:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm reasonable
2012-04-05 17:31:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breaks of trend mean something
2012-04-05 17:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the odds favoring the bulls that we outlined on Tuesday
2012-04-05 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we all know
2012-04-05 17:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the market doesn't do what it's likely to do can be more important than when it does do as expected
2012-04-05 17:32:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: of course, but I don't see 1350 as a strong a possibility as you, I think
2012-04-05 17:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: blame that on the MCO
2012-04-05 17:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have nothing to do with that 
2012-04-05 17:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now the downside target based strictly on this indicator
2012-04-05 17:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember
2012-04-05 17:33:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: in a strong uptrend, my experience is down moves come up a bit short
2012-04-05 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with liquidity still very high here in both the breadth and volume MCSUM's
2012-04-05 17:33:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take some time to get there
2012-04-05 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe
2012-04-05 17:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we did have an extended advance
2012-04-05 17:33:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2012-04-05 17:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's usual and customary to see balance
2012-04-05 17:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2012-04-05 17:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless we have something happen that would deemed a catastrophic technical failure
2012-04-05 17:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will be a healthy correction
2012-04-05 17:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really
2012-04-05 17:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: long over due
2012-04-05 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will likely
2012-04-05 17:34:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat:  I find the strength of this up move a bit unusual, as well LOL-it commands my respect
2012-04-05 17:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with most strong trends
2012-04-05 17:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will tend to be more of a correction in time than that of price
2012-04-05 17:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's up to sentiment here
2012-04-05 17:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and already the bears are biting at the bit
2012-04-05 17:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they want this decline sooooo bad
2012-04-05 17:36:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: don't get me wrong, I'm open minded, but in a "show me" state LOL
2012-04-05 17:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I understand
2012-04-05 17:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another prediction
2012-04-05 17:36:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ready?
2012-04-05 17:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by the time this correction is over
2012-04-05 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will finally here about the Mayan calendar event at the end of the year
2012-04-05 17:36:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool
2012-04-05 17:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the negativity will be so thick
2012-04-05 17:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that everyone will be caught up in it
2012-04-05 17:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will then set the floor to what should be our moving to new all time highs
2012-04-05 17:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...that's only me babbling
2012-04-05 17:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2012-04-05 17:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remain defensive
2012-04-05 17:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and watch the rhythm of the market
2012-04-05 17:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-04-05 17:38:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks much, Happy Easter
2012-04-05 17:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then I'm going to collapse now
2012-04-05 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great holiday weekend
2012-04-05 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are going on Tuesday
2012-04-05 17:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night



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