All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm

Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,610
Reply with quote  #1 
Please note that the next chat session will be today, Wednesday, April 6th...Thursday has been canceled.

2011-04-05 16:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-04-05 16:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-04-05 16:01:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Very well, thanks, and you?
2011-04-05 16:01:23 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Fine thanks
2011-04-05 16:01:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine
2011-04-05 16:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just settling down now
2011-04-05 16:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: been a busy day
2011-04-05 16:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need a drink...brb
2011-04-05 16:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sip...mmmmm...
2011-04-05 16:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-04-05 16:03:05 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Fib, I have a question regarding the advance decline volume data.
2011-04-05 16:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go
2011-04-05 16:03:13 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: On the decision point site Carl explains that the daily (and intraday) advance volume and decline volume is in fact tick volume (as opposed to traded shares, I assume). Here is what he says on http://www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/AboutADVol.html: "Advance-Decline Volume (ADV) is a variation of OBV used when both advancing and declining volume are available for the same day. I know of no source of this type of detailed data for stocks; however, advancing and declining volume are reported daily for major exchanges. This volume is actually tick volume -- the volume of each transaction is reported as advancing or declining based on the price direction of the transaction. Decision Point tracks ADV for several major market and sector indexes." Is this really so?
2011-04-05 16:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2011-04-05 16:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that DP gets their data from Stockcharts
2011-04-05 16:04:21 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I have been under the impression that the AD-volume was traded shares
2011-04-05 16:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is...reading
2011-04-05 16:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't see the TICK volume comment...let me scan again
2011-04-05 16:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah
2011-04-05 16:07:25 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Also, if the AD-volume it is tick volume, I think the cumulative AD volume line should match up with an intraday cumulative tick line, and it does not...
2011-04-05 16:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...TICK volume is the same as daily volume only that a snapshot is taken intraday
2011-04-05 16:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not really following what Carl is saying here
2011-04-05 16:07:53 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Me neither...
2011-04-05 16:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cumulative TICK is breadth
2011-04-05 16:08:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: volume on this up move bites-measured in any way
2011-04-05 16:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let it be said that the data that we work with in here is to assumed as daily
2011-04-05 16:08:37 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Anyway here is the link to Carl's text: http://www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/AboutADVol.html:
2011-04-05 16:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...read it...makes no sense to me
2011-04-05 16:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it will later when I'm able to digest it
2011-04-05 16:09:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: don't get me wrong, I'm not trading against price, in any event
2011-04-05 16:09:28 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: In your view the daily advance decline volume numbers are traded shares, right?
2011-04-05 16:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they should be
2011-04-05 16:09:44 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Good
2011-04-05 16:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can calculate them yourself
2011-04-05 16:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: easy to do
2011-04-05 16:09:50 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: How?
2011-04-05 16:09:53 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-04-05 16:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no idea what Carl is saying here
2011-04-05 16:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you look at up volume and down volume
2011-04-05 16:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just subtract the two and you get a cumulative number
2011-04-05 16:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like breadth plurality
2011-04-05 16:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and speaking of which
2011-04-05 16:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume plurality has been fine
2011-04-05 16:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get the NYUD chart
2011-04-05 16:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/nyud040511.png
2011-04-05 16:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: struggling...but rising
2011-04-05 16:12:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like Niagara Falls...
2011-04-05 16:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slowly I turn
2011-04-05 16:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: step by step
2011-04-05 16:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: inch by inch
2011-04-05 16:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in all seriousness
2011-04-05 16:13:08 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Can you calculate this line, yourself?
2011-04-05 16:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there's a lack of sellers
2011-04-05 16:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure
2011-04-05 16:13:25 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: What is the formula?
2011-04-05 16:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the A/D data?
2011-04-05 16:13:46 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Yes, the NYUD line
2011-04-05 16:13:50 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: yes
2011-04-05 16:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same as the A/D
2011-04-05 16:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up volume subtracted by down volume
2011-04-05 16:14:15 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: But you would need to track the volume of all the NYSE stocks, would you not?
2011-04-05 16:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the ones that trade
2011-04-05 16:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not every stock trades every day
2011-04-05 16:14:39 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: But that is like 2k stocks
2011-04-05 16:14:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow, are those ema's tight
2011-04-05 16:14:43 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: or more
2011-04-05 16:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like 3300 on the NYSE
2011-04-05 16:14:59 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: yes
2011-04-05 16:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you have the Wall Street Journal page?
2011-04-05 16:15:22 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: So I would have to download that data everyday from Yahoo
2011-04-05 16:15:27 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Yes
2011-04-05 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: screw yahoo
2011-04-05 16:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: their data is polluted
2011-04-05 16:15:35 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: OK
2011-04-05 16:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they include ARCA
2011-04-05 16:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/marketsdata.html
2011-04-05 16:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I use the data from WSJ
2011-04-05 16:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's as pure and consistent as anything out there
2011-04-05 16:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-04-05 16:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they show 1655/1355 on the NYSE for today
2011-04-05 16:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Yahoo shows 2122/1724!
2011-04-05 16:16:59 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: so you just use their daily AD volume numbers?
2011-04-05 16:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the up volume and down volume shown just below the breadth numbers on the left hand side
2011-04-05 16:17:27 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I see
2011-04-05 16:18:00 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: And it says: Share volume!
2011-04-05 16:18:04 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: So must be shares
2011-04-05 16:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so today...you had a net positive plurality of +157
2011-04-05 16:18:23 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I think I will ask Carl what he means?
2011-04-05 16:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just make a cumulative total
2011-04-05 16:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure...it's his statement
2011-04-05 16:18:35 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Sure
2011-04-05 16:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: please let us know what answer you get
2011-04-05 16:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm curious as well
2011-04-05 16:19:04 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I will. Could it be that it is volume traded on up tick versus volume traded on down tick?
2011-04-05 16:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TICK is just a snapshot in time
2011-04-05 16:19:24 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Yes
2011-04-05 16:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's A/D and U/D data intraday
2011-04-05 16:19:34 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Yes
2011-04-05 16:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is why I don't really understand what he's saying
2011-04-05 16:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you know...with technology today, I guess you can calculate anything
2011-04-05 16:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and back to Lew
2011-04-05 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...and with the EMA's are tight like they are currently, what does it suggest?
2011-04-05 16:21:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: if they don't separate-your chart suggests we drop
2011-04-05 16:21:28 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: One side is about to take control
2011-04-05 16:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...the basic answer is that we're undecided
2011-04-05 16:22:05 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: OK
2011-04-05 16:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the upward cross of the EMA's tell us that the MCSUM is now positive
2011-04-05 16:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls have control
2011-04-05 16:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...before we get into the nitty gritty
2011-04-05 16:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: announcement
2011-04-05 16:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be tied up this coming Thursday and the following Thursday
2011-04-05 16:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if it's alright with you guys, can we switch from Thursday's to Wednesday's for the next two weeks?
2011-04-05 16:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today and tomorrow
2011-04-05 16:24:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2011-04-05 16:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every one OK with that?
2011-04-05 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will remind again towards the close
2011-04-05 16:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll see how things are
2011-04-05 16:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved slightly lower again today
2011-04-05 16:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is now two consecutive days of being able to remain above both the +50 level and above what was the previous horizontal highs
2011-04-05 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite bullish for the near term
2011-04-05 16:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the bears not able to come up with anything in an attempt to relieve the near term "overbought" nature of the market
2011-04-05 16:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now crossed above the +500 level on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-04-05 16:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this level said to be "escape velocity"
2011-04-05 16:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further strength near term (tomorrow) would probably be in co-ordination of a breakout
2011-04-05 16:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we look at the NYA price chart
2011-04-05 16:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we are now right at the February highs
2011-04-05 16:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and churning
2011-04-05 16:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: deciding
2011-04-05 16:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's next?
2011-04-05 16:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE composite data
2011-04-05 16:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that the NYSE breadth MCSUM is near the next plateau of the +750 level
2011-04-05 16:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get this high in the MCSUM, it becomes VERY difficult for the other side to mount up more than just an intraday correction
2011-04-05 16:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will tend to be shallow at best
2011-04-05 16:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it shouldn't be too surprising how shallow the pullbacks have been over the last couple of days
2011-04-05 16:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really...a magic moment is upon us here
2011-04-05 16:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if the bulls can push things even higher in the MCO near term
2011-04-05 16:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the move in price could be quite explosive given that we have already broken above formidable resistance on the MCO
2011-04-05 16:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth LEADS price
2011-04-05 16:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to watch how things sort out over the next couple of days
2011-04-05 16:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott wise
2011-04-05 16:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have fully completed the correctional B wave flat idea we talked about in mid March
2011-04-05 16:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-04-05 16:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals do NOT suggest this to be corrective
2011-04-05 16:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it suggests to us that this is impulsive
2011-04-05 16:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of near term strength is being shown with the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2011-04-05 16:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM now moving above its zero line again
2011-04-05 16:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would mean that the 19 day EMA has crossed above the 39 day EMA on the NAAD
2011-04-05 16:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting us back into a bullish configuration
2011-04-05 16:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look real quick
2011-04-05 16:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/naad040511.png
2011-04-05 16:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NAAD line itself is now back to the highs seen prior to the March correction
2011-04-05 16:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break above these levels would be a highly bullish event
2011-04-05 16:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems that things are once again all coming together at one point in time
2011-04-05 16:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have good rhythm internally now
2011-04-05 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a whole lack of sellers
2011-04-05 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about last week
2011-04-05 16:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we were able to break above the overhead resistance on the various MCO's
2011-04-05 16:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the bears would have a whole lot of problems grabbing back control
2011-04-05 16:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now starting to see this occur with the lack of any kind of retracement in the short term trend of the A/D lines as they continue rising
2011-04-05 16:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now here's something with a potential to surprise
2011-04-05 16:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM has now crossed above the +500 level
2011-04-05 16:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but prices have been holding back to this point
2011-04-05 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the NDX breadth MCSUM can add to these current levels
2011-04-05 16:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving long the NDX could make some nice returns as it plays catch up with the rest of the market
2011-04-05 16:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SPX breadth MCSUM is now at the +673 level
2011-04-05 16:42:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will make it difficult for the bears to build on anything that might turn prices lower near term
2011-04-05 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...this is quite a juncture here
2011-04-05 16:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: historic
2011-04-05 16:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was just looking at the breadth charts...the potential here remains quite astounding
2011-04-05 16:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO and MCSUM remain one the weaker areas right now
2011-04-05 16:44:13 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: What was the historic juncture?
2011-04-05 16:44:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again this could be part of the Japanese problem more than anything else
2011-04-05 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be on the edge of something really amazing to the upside
2011-04-05 16:45:04 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Because of the MCO and 10% component breakouts?
2011-04-05 16:45:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again...we've had these kind of instances in the past as well
2011-04-05 16:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-04-05 16:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but
2011-04-05 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point
2011-04-05 16:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lack of selling here is very bullish
2011-04-05 16:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2011-04-05 16:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the way the MCO's are able to maintain their "overbought" conditions without any correction is quite unusual
2011-04-05 16:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you have the MCSUM's moving above the +500 level
2011-04-05 16:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need now is for some of them to break above their previous resistance levels
2011-04-05 16:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some horizontal...some trendline
2011-04-05 16:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this market could really run here
2011-04-05 16:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's still a stigma with volume that is keeping many from moving with the direction of breadth
2011-04-05 16:47:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but volume increases when "wisdom" is known
2011-04-05 16:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe...
2011-04-05 16:47:55 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I took a smaller short position in SPX today close to the highs of the day. Will keep stop tight above the highs of today.
2011-04-05 16:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is leaving the Japanese market and moving into the US market as a safety play?
2011-04-05 16:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-04-05 16:50:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the potential here remains quite bullish
2011-04-05 16:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we already know that when the MCSUM's moved to higher highs in February
2011-04-05 16:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also extended the expected time for this current price structure to finish up to late spring/early summer
2011-04-05 16:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now we're getting some renewed vigor here that...
2011-04-05 16:52:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're able to move above the February highs
2011-04-05 16:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will extend again the time approximate for the current rally to around the end of summer
2011-04-05 16:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shrug)
2011-04-05 16:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be noted
2011-04-05 16:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if we do take out the October/November highs on the MCSUM from last year
2011-04-05 16:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a more than 50% chance that prices will be able to run all the way back up to the all time highs on the Dow and SPX
2011-04-05 16:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the MID and SML are already there
2011-04-05 16:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be out of character for the large caps to play catch up as well
2011-04-05 16:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it's only a potential here
2011-04-05 16:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we get another large breadth thrust here
2011-04-05 16:54:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we did last week
2011-04-05 16:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I sure wouldn't want to stand in the way of what could very well be the center point of an Elliott 3rd wave of Primary degree
2011-04-05 16:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add to that the inflation factor of a lower dollar
2011-04-05 16:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's not as remote a chance as one might think
2011-04-05 16:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold is now looking like it's about to start a new leg higher
2011-04-05 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we still have a $1850 objective there to work with
2011-04-05 16:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so many things...so little time
2011-04-05 16:57:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM continues to be above its +500 level
2011-04-05 16:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID data remains very bullish here
2011-04-05 16:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the impulsive nature of the MID price pattern structure
2011-04-05 16:58:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with 6 straight days of new closing highs
2011-04-05 16:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: smacks of a third wave, doesn't it?
2011-04-05 16:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we have the SML
2011-04-05 16:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with 6 consecutive higher closes as well
2011-04-05 16:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus we are about to move above the +500 level on the MCSUM
2011-04-05 16:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the strength here is really amazing
2011-04-05 17:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor
2011-04-05 17:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have also broken above the declining tops line on the SML breadth MCSUM
2011-04-05 17:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't let volume fool you here
2011-04-05 17:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's fine
2011-04-05 17:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume is NEVER a case of quantity
2011-04-05 17:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's ALWAYS a case of quality
2011-04-05 17:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the quality here is fine
2011-04-05 17:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least if you're a bull it is
2011-04-05 17:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in all of these breadth MCSUM's we also have one other constant
2011-04-05 17:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the distance of the individual gaps is quite wide
2011-04-05 17:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing us that there is a great deal of money coming into the US markets
2011-04-05 17:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: globally, the FTSE and the DAX are also showing some nice recovery here as well
2011-04-05 17:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lone major is Australia which still has it's problems with monetary policy
2011-04-05 17:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at least their central bank didn't raise rates today...they left them alone
2011-04-05 17:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-04-05 17:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: steady as she goes
2011-04-05 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the potential now upon us of a major breakout
2011-04-05 17:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Lew?
2011-04-05 17:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you still there?
2011-04-05 17:04:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-04-05 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lows occurred on my first day in Vegas
2011-04-05 17:04:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice
2011-04-05 17:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing
2011-04-05 17:05:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hate to break a long streak
2011-04-05 17:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the correction took place on my St. Louis trip
2011-04-05 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very eerie
2011-04-05 17:05:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-04-05 17:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend is up until proven otherwise
2011-04-05 17:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any intraday plays on the short side are to be taken as hit and run FAST
2011-04-05 17:06:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the easy trades remain on the upside for now
2011-04-05 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if volume bothering you
2011-04-05 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hold your nose
2011-04-05 17:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the MID and SML are moving to all time highs
2011-04-05 17:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not the time to be picky
2011-04-05 17:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rarity of situations like this are likely not to ever happen again
2011-04-05 17:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go with the (money) flow
2011-04-05 17:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am 75% long now
2011-04-05 17:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waiting for the breakout
2011-04-05 17:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking a quick look at the component charts
2011-04-05 17:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's look at their MCSUM's
2011-04-05 17:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLY above +500
2011-04-05 17:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLP now at +750...and also at new highs
2011-04-05 17:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLE at +750
2011-04-05 17:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the price pattern showing a nice consolidation
2011-04-05 17:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't surprise me at all if we see a really big move to the upside there in the next day or so
2011-04-05 17:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLF at +500
2011-04-05 17:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of multiple 250's right now
2011-04-05 17:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could provide near term resistance
2011-04-05 17:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where a gap higher is needed to move above these levels
2011-04-05 17:11:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: kind of a "tech free" rally
2011-04-05 17:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...XLV is on fire
2011-04-05 17:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who cares about the techs?
2011-04-05 17:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was old school stuff
2011-04-05 17:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've been noticing how everyone is once again looking at the semi's as some sort of gauge of strength
2011-04-05 17:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that was in the late 90's
2011-04-05 17:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not now
2011-04-05 17:11:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I've heard that before, sorry
2011-04-05 17:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we should see here is what we started to see yesterday
2011-04-05 17:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now for the semi's to consolidate
2011-04-05 17:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would look for a whole slew of takeovers here
2011-04-05 17:12:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it lead this stuff out of the hole by 3 months-that was 2009
2011-04-05 17:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: welll
2011-04-05 17:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's always going to be something that is more undervalued than others
2011-04-05 17:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at it this way
2011-04-05 17:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the markets are going higher without the semi's
2011-04-05 17:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are you going to say that the MID caps and SML caps can't move to higher highs without the semi's?
2011-04-05 17:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the answer is yes
2011-04-05 17:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how long are you willing to allow this to happen if it continues?
2011-04-05 17:14:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2011-04-05 17:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course not
2011-04-05 17:14:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but google, aapl and others matter a bit
2011-04-05 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we want here is to follow strength
2011-04-05 17:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wherever it may be
2011-04-05 17:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't matter to the MID
2011-04-05 17:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nor the SML
2011-04-05 17:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nor the NASDAQ composite
2011-04-05 17:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nor the AMEX
2011-04-05 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nor to Toronto
2011-04-05 17:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things like this are just a market distraction
2011-04-05 17:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the lack of volume
2011-04-05 17:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and meanwhile you get squeezed
2011-04-05 17:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and squeezed
2011-04-05 17:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sqeeeeeeeeezzzzeeeeddd until you have nothing more to give
2011-04-05 17:16:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not me-but who is left to squeeze?
2011-04-05 17:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many evidently
2011-04-05 17:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you really think that the majority of people are not short here?
2011-04-05 17:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the TT board
2011-04-05 17:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every single day we're hearing about how bad things are in Japan
2011-04-05 17:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and STILL we move higher
2011-04-05 17:18:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: true!
2011-04-05 17:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is which direction is money flowing?
2011-04-05 17:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if it's having the desired effect on prices
2011-04-05 17:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the answer to that is...yes, it is
2011-04-05 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're nervous, better to be long with a stop, or with put option insurance, than to miss out
2011-04-05 17:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: options are your insurance against being wrong
2011-04-05 17:19:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm long a couple individual stocks
2011-04-05 17:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want everyone now to look at the XLI data
2011-04-05 17:19:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: energy related
2011-04-05 17:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do you see on the XLI breadth MCSUM?
2011-04-05 17:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +1120?
2011-04-05 17:20:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-04-05 17:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how can the bears mount up anything against this overwhelming tide of strength?
2011-04-05 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can't
2011-04-05 17:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to believe otherwise, and you might as well cancel your subscription to this chat room
2011-04-05 17:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because even if we top out here on the MCSUM
2011-04-05 17:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's almost a given that we will see higher price highs over the next month or so
2011-04-05 17:22:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we're looking at that industrials sector
2011-04-05 17:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't it make sense that the Dow INDUSTRIAL's are also going to move to higher highs?
2011-04-05 17:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: omg!
2011-04-05 17:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the XLB breadth MCO!
2011-04-05 17:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unbelievable
2011-04-05 17:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember
2011-04-05 17:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was one of two sectors that we talked about as being a strong buy last week
2011-04-05 17:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why would money be moving into the materials sector?
2011-04-05 17:24:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Japan
2011-04-05 17:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rebuilding...yes
2011-04-05 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we're dealing with economics here
2011-04-05 17:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about building here too
2011-04-05 17:25:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2011-04-05 17:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the REIT A/D line is very bullish here
2011-04-05 17:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has been for about 3 months now
2011-04-05 17:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-04-05 17:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about the REITS and the financials as being the place to be back in December I believe
2011-04-05 17:25:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I wish to heck they'd address the electric grid-FAR overdue
2011-04-05 17:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (one out of two ain't bad...so far)
2011-04-05 17:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they won't
2011-04-05 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Congress is a bunch of idiots
2011-04-05 17:26:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure are
2011-04-05 17:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can't rely on them
2011-04-05 17:26:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope!
2011-04-05 17:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is something that has been talked about since the 1970's
2011-04-05 17:26:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it really is in tatters though....
2011-04-05 17:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no money in it for them
2011-04-05 17:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they improve in the infrastructure
2011-04-05 17:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how are they going to make money on their shares of Occidental Petroleum?
2011-04-05 17:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: follow the money
2011-04-05 17:27:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: true-and it would probably create too many jobs, as well LOL
2011-04-05 17:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...don't know about that
2011-04-05 17:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would also make us more independent
2011-04-05 17:28:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: huge projects generally do
2011-04-05 17:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...onward
2011-04-05 17:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO is now showing a zero line test
2011-04-05 17:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're undecided here
2011-04-05 17:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO components remain positive, however
2011-04-05 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a bounce higher indicated near term
2011-04-05 17:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably a good day for the techs tomorrow
2011-04-05 17:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fascinating
2011-04-05 17:29:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the techs are the problem here
2011-04-05 17:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what if they're not the problem tomorrow...and - BANG - we breakout to the upside?
2011-04-05 17:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a zero line test for the XLU as well
2011-04-05 17:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-04-05 17:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much to complain about here
2011-04-05 17:32:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we would like to have is some sort of shake out being greedy as we are
2011-04-05 17:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I don't know if there's any fuel left for the bears to feed on here
2011-04-05 17:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a cursory look at the volume MCSUM's show that the SML is leading the way higher
2011-04-05 17:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYSE CO and composite volume MCSUM's showing some nice structures here to the upside
2011-04-05 17:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that SML data is truly breath taking here
2011-04-05 17:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remains the play for the bulls
2011-04-05 17:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain "overbought"
2011-04-05 17:36:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's remain stable
2011-04-05 17:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are on the bullish side of neutral but far from being "overbought"
2011-04-05 17:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...we're not likely to see a price top lasting more than a few days until we get the VTO's to "overbought" now
2011-04-05 17:37:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: what is your take on the energy ones?
2011-04-05 17:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .83
2011-04-05 17:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.01
2011-04-05 17:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLE volume and breadth?
2011-04-05 17:38:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cvi, stvo, vto
2011-04-05 17:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the VTO is suggesting a strong trend to the upside
2011-04-05 17:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the general market in January and part of February
2011-04-05 17:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry Lew...energy is going to continue to move higher here
2011-04-05 17:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very bullish
2011-04-05 17:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much money still coming in
2011-04-05 17:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until you get both the XLE volume and breadth MCSUM's back below the +250 level
2011-04-05 17:40:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I own energy stocks, but they look to me like they are starting to blow off
2011-04-05 17:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I really don't know where it's likely to top out
2011-04-05 17:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so embrace it!
2011-04-05 17:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: such a nervous Nelly you are
2011-04-05 17:40:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh yea, so far so good
2011-04-05 17:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about this?
2011-04-05 17:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's what I would do if I were you
2011-04-05 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: use the parabolic SAR as your stop
2011-04-05 17:41:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice
2011-04-05 17:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's 78.83 on the XLE right now
2011-04-05 17:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SAR is a great tool during trending moves
2011-04-05 17:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a no brainier
2011-04-05 17:42:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I had a stop at 78.4-I could move it up
2011-04-05 17:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would move it up to 78.80
2011-04-05 17:42:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool, thanks
2011-04-05 17:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it hits
2011-04-05 17:42:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you bank
2011-04-05 17:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and wait for another buy signal
2011-04-05 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and NOT a sell signal
2011-04-05 17:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the MCSUM's move low enough where a trend in the opposite direction can develop
2011-04-05 17:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you look towards the easier direction
2011-04-05 17:43:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eventually, you will get a downtrend
2011-04-05 17:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that isn't now
2011-04-05 17:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you know very well
2011-04-05 17:44:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: funny-I just looked-till I lowered my stop=it was at 78.80 LOL
2011-04-05 17:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with oscillators
2011-04-05 17:44:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can remain at extremes for long periods of time
2011-04-05 17:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2011-04-05 17:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they work best magic in consolidations and not during trends
2011-04-05 17:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to answer your question on the volume oscillators
2011-04-05 17:45:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest...their predictive value is not as high as they would be if were just moving sideways
2011-04-05 17:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .65
2011-04-05 17:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92
2011-04-05 17:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2011-04-05 17:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .72
2011-04-05 17:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .96
2011-04-05 17:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in all three cases we're not even close to being "overbought" here
2011-04-05 17:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls remain at the helm
2011-04-05 17:46:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they control the action
2011-04-05 17:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe close to hitting the "nitro" button ("throttle up")
2011-04-05 17:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-04-05 17:47:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: tomorrow is WWW
2011-04-05 17:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main thing here is to remain focused on what is important and not on what "could be"
2011-04-05 17:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good old WWW
2011-04-05 17:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wonder what we have to look forward to?
2011-04-05 17:48:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my bet is I get a drop to buy, twt
2011-04-05 17:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every drop so far has been at wholesale levels...why change?
2011-04-05 17:49:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: so true
2011-04-05 17:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...as a reminder
2011-04-05 17:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will have the next chat tomorrow, Wednesday and then Tuesday and Wednesday again next week
2011-04-05 17:49:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice!
2011-04-05 17:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for manuj
2011-04-05 17:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I got my camera over the weekend!
2011-04-05 17:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-04-05 17:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just have to figure out what the best coarse of action might be
2011-04-05 17:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-04-05 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-04-05 17:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great day tomorrow
2011-04-05 17:51:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again in 22 hours
2011-04-05 17:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night


__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2018 Technical Watch