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Posts: 5,135
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-04-28 16:00:13 fib1618: good day
2016-04-28 16:00:17 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-04-28 16:00:34 mojave: good here
2016-04-28 16:00:37 thespookyone: Great, thanks
2016-04-28 16:02:08 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-04-28 16:04:12 fib1618: good...
2016-04-28 16:04:24 fib1618: OK...let me get situated...
2016-04-28 16:04:34 fib1618: I'll check the BETS moment
2016-04-28 16:04:52 fib1618: oh...we sold off hard in the afternoon I see
2016-04-28 16:05:54 fib1618: +50
2016-04-28 16:06:06 fib1618: so we continue to improve there
2016-04-28 16:06:18 fib1618: OK...let's get the DP charts up and see what we have
2016-04-28 16:06:49 fib1618: after moving to the +34 level on Wednesday
2016-04-28 16:06:58 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO "exhaled" today
2016-04-28 16:07:20 fib1618: and find ourselves back at the zero line with a reading of +2
2016-04-28 16:07:42 fib1618: the CO components remain in a positive crossover configuration
2016-04-28 16:07:55 fib1618: as the 10% has again snapped back to the 5% Trend
2016-04-28 16:08:11 fib1618: this, of course, would indicate that a technical bounce to take place on Friday
2016-04-28 16:08:32 fib1618: but with the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM now at +1000
2016-04-28 16:09:11 fib1618: we'll have to see if the buyers are back to being locked and loaded for that special push that will be needed to climb over this natural hurdle
2016-04-28 16:09:45 fib1618: after peaking out at a +31 on Wednesday
2016-04-28 16:09:58 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO also moved sharply lower today
2016-04-28 16:10:17 fib1618: but the selling here wasn't as intense as it was with the common only issues
2016-04-28 16:10:33 fib1618: as we wound up with a reading of +5
2016-04-28 16:11:00 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-04-28 16:11:22 fib1618: and we're now getting pretty close to our next upside target of +1250 with a +1225 reading today
2016-04-28 16:12:01 fib1618: but the components here also remain elevated above their zero lines
2016-04-28 16:12:03 fib1618: no less
2016-04-28 16:12:09 fib1618: in a positive crossover configuration
2016-04-28 16:12:12 fib1618: so far then
2016-04-28 16:12:23 fib1618: it would appear that we had a rally failure intraday today
2016-04-28 16:12:39 fib1618: with traders taking some money off the table
2016-04-28 16:13:24 fib1618: price chart wise
2016-04-28 16:13:40 fib1618: we do have, what looks to be, a near term topping formation
2016-04-28 16:14:01 fib1618: having made a new closing high on Wednesday
2016-04-28 16:14:11 fib1618: only to close below the previous 2 days of closes
2016-04-28 16:14:42 fib1618: problem though
2016-04-28 16:14:56 fib1618: is that we haven't, as yet, taken out the reaction lows of last week yet in the MCO's
2016-04-28 16:15:09 fib1618: so, if anything, could be a small Elliott 4th wave here
2016-04-28 16:15:31 fib1618: that looks to be an irregular flat
2016-04-28 16:18:08 fib1618: regardless of Elliott philosophy
2016-04-28 16:18:21 fib1618: today looks least so far
2016-04-28 16:18:39 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-04-28 16:18:55 fib1618: and here it would seem that we're now starting to follow the lead of the NDX breadth MCO
2016-04-28 16:19:17 fib1618: as we failed to follow through to the upside
2016-04-28 16:19:22 fib1618: and have now moved back below the zero line
2016-04-28 16:19:32 fib1618: with tops beneath tops controlling the MCO pattern
2016-04-28 16:19:52 fib1618: negative crossover on the components as well
2016-04-28 16:20:11 fib1618: though both Trends remain nicely above their zero line
2016-04-28 16:20:27 fib1618: near term problem though
2016-04-28 16:20:42 fib1618: is that all of this weakness is happening where the buyers don't want to see this
2016-04-28 16:21:00 fib1618: as we attempt to break clear of the +500 level on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2016-04-28 16:21:14 fib1618: price pattern wise
2016-04-28 16:21:33 fib1618: we seem to be challenging the lows of earlier this month
2016-04-28 16:21:46 fib1618: with today's outside range day suggesting an up close for Friday
2016-04-28 16:22:09 fib1618: could be a capitulation day for the NASDAQ given the high Open 10 readings of the last week or so
2016-04-28 16:22:16 fib1618: let's see how the NDX did
2016-04-28 16:22:39 fib1618: snapback to the zero line failure for the NDX breadth MCO
2016-04-28 16:22:58 fib1618: and finishing today with a -40 reading
2016-04-28 16:23:43 fib1618: the back kiss snapback in the components that we saw on Tuesday produced the expectation of a fall away move back below the zero line for the 10% Trend
2016-04-28 16:23:59 fib1618: and with the 5% now at the +24 level
2016-04-28 16:24:33 fib1618: a technical bounce would be expected on Friday to allow the 10% to snapback to the zero line and the 5% finding natural support
2016-04-28 16:25:26 fib1618: do note though
2016-04-28 16:25:54 fib1618: that the last time we had both the NDX MCO and 10% Trend below their zero lines earlier this month produced a quick turnaround
2016-04-28 16:26:03 fib1618: and this time
2016-04-28 16:26:15 fib1618: our amplitude is not as strong
2016-04-28 16:26:23 fib1618: could get worse
2016-04-28 16:26:33 fib1618: but we can't just say "that's it"
2016-04-28 16:26:57 mojave: amplitude of components/MCO?
2016-04-28 16:26:57 fib1618: especially with the NYSE still showing good buoyancy
2016-04-28 16:27:02 fib1618: both
2016-04-28 16:27:13 mojave: yes
2016-04-28 16:27:22 fib1618: earlier this month we had a -47 on the NDX MCO
2016-04-28 16:27:36 fib1618: and the 10% was around -22
2016-04-28 16:27:58 fib1618: and on the flip side
2016-04-28 16:28:22 fib1618: the early April dive was part of a price consolidation
2016-04-28 16:28:32 fib1618: where this time we have already been trending lower for over a week price wise
2016-04-28 16:28:46 fib1618: which also means
2016-04-28 16:28:53 fib1618: we're diverging right now
2016-04-28 16:29:06 fib1618: so, again, we can't say "that's it" and look for a trend change
2016-04-28 16:29:43 fib1618: after moving to a higher high on Wednesday to the +33 level
2016-04-28 16:29:56 fib1618: we see that not only did the SPX breadth MCO move sharply lower
2016-04-28 16:30:04 fib1618: but it also finished below the zero line
2016-04-28 16:30:10 fib1618: and a lower low was also created
2016-04-28 16:31:04 fib1618: price pattern support though doesn't come until 2040
2016-04-28 16:31:31 fib1618: and, of course, our upside price targets were reached last week
2016-04-28 16:31:35 fib1618: could be a top
2016-04-28 16:32:12 fib1618: but with the SPX MCO components still nicely above their zero line
2016-04-28 16:32:21 fib1618: it would appear that we're about to see a trading range here
2016-04-28 16:32:27 fib1618: with 2100 on the high side
2016-04-28 16:32:31 fib1618: 2040 on the low side
2016-04-28 16:33:28 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO only matched last week's high point before moving sharply lower today
2016-04-28 16:33:37 fib1618: coming in with a reading of -8
2016-04-28 16:34:09 fib1618: we'll call it an irregular SOB pattern for now from the peak on the 19th
2016-04-28 16:35:02 fib1618: we got our bounce off the zero line on Wednesday in the Dow breadth MCO
2016-04-28 16:35:25 fib1618: but really took it on the chin today with a reading of -40
2016-04-28 16:35:50 fib1618: negative crossover on the Dow MCO components as well
2016-04-28 16:36:03 fib1618: but they do remain above their zero lines suggesting corrective activity
2016-04-28 16:36:44 fib1618: looking at the way things moved today
2016-04-28 16:36:52 fib1618: was there a news item?
2016-04-28 16:37:00 fib1618: it looks "massaged"
2016-04-28 16:37:15 fib1618: anyway
2016-04-28 16:37:47 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO moved back below its zero line today after peaking out at +35 on Wednesday
2016-04-28 16:38:20 mojave: I didn't see any news
2016-04-28 16:38:43 fib1618: must be something currency related maybe?
2016-04-28 16:39:01 mojave: BOJ stuff overnight, failed expectations...
2016-04-28 16:39:01 thespookyone: Bank of Japan didn't ease last night
2016-04-28 16:39:03 fib1618: I've busy today...don't know
2016-04-28 16:39:07 fib1618: oh
2016-04-28 16:39:08 fib1618: really?
2016-04-28 16:39:12 fib1618: that's a surprise
2016-04-28 16:39:13 thespookyone: yep
2016-04-28 16:39:23 fib1618: OK...
2016-04-28 16:39:31 mojave: expected to ease so lots of shorts, folks got caught off-sides methinks
2016-04-28 16:39:35 fib1618: G8 is next week though
2016-04-28 16:39:41 fib1618: hmmm
2016-04-28 16:39:42 mojave: similar to DOHA shorts a week ago
2016-04-28 16:39:48 fib1618: hmmm
2016-04-28 16:39:50 fib1618: OK...
2016-04-28 16:39:54 fib1618: maybe that's what it was
2016-04-28 16:39:58 mojave: GDP sucked, no surprise
2016-04-28 16:40:03 fib1618: maybe Yen/Dollar cross?
2016-04-28 16:40:10 fib1618: oh!
2016-04-28 16:40:14 fib1618: GDP...
2016-04-28 16:40:24 fib1618: well...I wasn't expecting much as you know
2016-04-28 16:40:34 fib1618: let me take a quick look
2016-04-28 16:40:35 fib1618: one sec
2016-04-28 16:41:05 fib1618: NYSE breadth, BTW, was only 2:1 negative today
2016-04-28 16:41:14 fib1618: so much of this was heavy weight selling it would seem
2016-04-28 16:41:30 fib1618: .5% on GDP
2016-04-28 16:41:33 fib1618: ugh
2016-04-28 16:41:46 fib1618: yea...our economy is booming
2016-04-28 16:41:50 fib1618: idiots
2016-04-28 16:42:00 fib1618: but I digress
2016-04-28 16:42:03 fib1618: [smile]
2016-04-28 16:42:16 fib1618: it's starting to make sense
2016-04-28 16:42:42 fib1618: Japan must be off big
2016-04-28 16:42:46 fib1618: let me see
2016-04-28 16:42:50 mojave: it was!
2016-04-28 16:42:56 fib1618: down 3.61%
2016-04-28 16:42:59 fib1618: OK..
2016-04-28 16:43:06 fib1618: massage away
2016-04-28 16:43:12 fib1618: back to the SML
2016-04-28 16:43:26 fib1618: as it failed to make a higher high on Wednesday
2016-04-28 16:43:39 fib1618: and closed today with a reading of -5
2016-04-28 16:44:15 fib1618: but things look to be stable there
2016-04-28 16:44:49 fib1618: and after failing to move above the +25 level
2016-04-28 16:45:01 fib1618: the TM breadth MCO snapped back to its zero line
2016-04-28 16:45:13 fib1618: with the 10% component testing the 5% Component
2016-04-28 16:45:21 fib1618: so we should have a bounce as soon as Friday
2016-04-28 16:45:25 fib1618: so...
2016-04-28 16:45:33 fib1618: with the exception of the NASDAQ and NDX
2016-04-28 16:45:47 fib1618: the rest of the indicators look to starving for more fuel
2016-04-28 16:45:53 fib1618: and when there isn't any around
2016-04-28 16:46:07 fib1618: they reset themselves back to neutral
2016-04-28 16:46:19 fib1618: where, in essence, both sides of the trade even up
2016-04-28 16:46:47 fib1618: weakness today came harder with the mega caps
2016-04-28 16:47:15 fib1618: which could be a currency play to offset any losses being seen in Asia
2016-04-28 16:47:35 fib1618: but unlike earlier this month
2016-04-28 16:48:00 fib1618: we have more evidence of MCO structures that continue to show decent texture to the downside now
2016-04-28 16:48:13 fib1618: while others have been above their zero line for an extended period of time
2016-04-28 16:48:15 fib1618: so far
2016-04-28 16:48:35 fib1618: there isn't anything out there to suggest that this is no more than another pause to refresh
2016-04-28 16:48:43 fib1618: and if this is the actual case
2016-04-28 16:49:07 fib1618: today was to trigger any weak hands to part with their long positions
2016-04-28 16:49:21 fib1618: where it's not people selling that make people sell
2016-04-28 16:49:35 fib1618: it's prices moving lower that create this
2016-04-28 16:49:56 fib1618: we're also seeing internal divergence now with the NASDAQ and NDX
2016-04-28 16:50:08 fib1618: so another day or two of watching wouldn't hurt
2016-04-28 16:50:22 fib1618: especially since the BETS keeps improving during this process
2016-04-28 16:50:30 fib1618: moving to the sectors
2016-04-28 16:51:09 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO now has a nice succession of tops beneath tops working now
2016-04-28 16:51:30 fib1618: as we're seeing a lessening of buying pressure
2016-04-28 16:51:47 fib1618: with today's reading of -27
2016-04-28 16:51:58 fib1618: tomorrow becomes a character day for this basket of issues
2016-04-28 16:52:21 fib1618: to see if we can get a snapback to or toward the MCO zero line to even up positions before the weekend or not
2016-04-28 16:52:45 fib1618: if not, a challenge of the $77.50 level would then be expected
2016-04-28 16:53:04 fib1618: also watching the XLY breadth MCSUM
2016-04-28 16:53:13 fib1618: as it continues to play tag with the +750 level
2016-04-28 16:53:42 fib1618: feels like a trading range now
2016-04-28 16:53:57 fib1618: maybe into the jobs report next week?
2016-04-28 16:54:01 fib1618: who really knows
2016-04-28 16:55:37 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCO has perked up a bit since last week
2016-04-28 16:55:48 fib1618: as it has poked its head above the zero line now
2016-04-28 16:56:04 fib1618: coming in with a reading of +8
2016-04-28 16:56:45 fib1618: and we're back to a crossover buy signal on the XLP components
2016-04-28 16:57:08 fib1618: with the XLP breadth MCSUM is attempting to curl higher just above the +750 level
2016-04-28 16:57:47 fib1618: looks like we got our technical snapback in prices completed today
2016-04-28 16:57:53 fib1618: and based on last weeks review
2016-04-28 16:58:01 fib1618: this would be the point of lightening up on longs bought over the last couple of months
2016-04-28 16:58:17 fib1618: with today's mid range close and the bear flag structure since last week's lows
2016-04-28 16:58:39 fib1618: suggesting that this plan remains valid for now
2016-04-28 16:59:07 fib1618: with a buy stop at .10 above today's intraday highs
2016-04-28 16:59:31 fib1618: the XLE continues to follow our blueprint
2016-04-28 16:59:53 fib1618: as it peaked out today at just a point below our upside price target
2016-04-28 17:00:24 fib1618: also got a higher high in the XLE breadth MCO with this higher price high
2016-04-28 17:00:30 fib1618: so we remain long there for now
2016-04-28 17:01:03 fib1618: the XLF breadth MCO moved sharply lower today
2016-04-28 17:01:30 fib1618: this looks like the sector that weighed the averages down today (so far)
2016-04-28 17:01:52 fib1618: the XLF components remain buoyant
2016-04-28 17:02:34 fib1618: as the rate of ascent in the XLF breadth MCSUM begins to slow as we near the +1250 level
2016-04-28 17:02:50 fib1618: so not a lot of damage here
2016-04-28 17:02:56 fib1618: but this sector was sold today
2016-04-28 17:03:43 fib1618: since last Thursday's peak the XLV breadth MCO has now retraced all the way back to its zero line
2016-04-28 17:04:23 fib1618: with a kiss in the 10% and 5% components
2016-04-28 17:04:50 fib1618: and the XLV breadth MCSUM failing to follow through above the +1000 level
2016-04-28 17:05:11 fib1618: so we should see a reflex bounce as soon as Friday here too
2016-04-28 17:05:49 fib1618: after seeing new all time highs again in the XLI indices
2016-04-28 17:06:10 fib1618: and a +39 reading in the XLI breadth MCO
2016-04-28 17:06:48 fib1618: we moved sharply back below the zero line here as well
2016-04-28 17:07:21 fib1618: leaving behind some near term bearish divergence
2016-04-28 17:07:45 fib1618: take this and add the divergence in the XLI breadth MCSUM
2016-04-28 17:08:10 fib1618: and it may be time to take a more balanced approach toward this basket of issues for the short term
2016-04-28 17:08:47 fib1618: and let it PROVE to us that it can attract fresh money to keep it going
2016-04-28 17:09:26 fib1618: the XLB breadth MCO wasn't able to move back above its blip resistance level this past week
2016-04-28 17:09:54 fib1618: but seems to be stable currently
2016-04-28 17:10:15 fib1618: though with the XLB breadth MCSUM now near its next resistance wall at the +1750 level
2016-04-28 17:10:31 fib1618: a more extended pause wouldn't be surprising
2016-04-28 17:11:17 fib1618: and the XLK breadth MCO continues to have trouble convincing the buyers that they should show a bit move conviction towards this group of issues
2016-04-28 17:15:07 fib1618: as we have had 4 unsuccessful tries at moving above this line of neutrality
2016-04-28 17:15:11 fib1618: meanwhile
2016-04-28 17:15:32 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCSUM continues to unwind to the downside
2016-04-28 17:15:46 fib1618: while finishing today with a +1001 reading
2016-04-28 17:16:07 fib1618: both of the XLK breadth MCO components remain elevated though
2016-04-28 17:16:27 fib1618: though getting closer now to their zero lines
2016-04-28 17:17:00 fib1618: internals do NOT suggest a double top here
2016-04-28 17:17:19 fib1618: it just looks corrective
2016-04-28 17:17:35 fib1618: $42 is support
2016-04-28 17:17:38 fib1618: and at this point
2016-04-28 17:17:40 fib1618: it should hold
2016-04-28 17:18:09 fib1618: how's AMZN doing?
2016-04-28 17:18:16 fib1618: let me check
2016-04-28 17:18:43 fib1618: up 12% after hours (!)
2016-04-28 17:18:44 mojave: better after hours [smile]
2016-04-28 17:18:53 fib1618: what was the other one due today?
2016-04-28 17:19:02 fib1618: oh...linked in?
2016-04-28 17:19:21 fib1618: and it's up 8%
2016-04-28 17:19:27 fib1618: so, as we figured
2016-04-28 17:19:37 fib1618: those with good reports are being rewarded
2016-04-28 17:19:43 fib1618: those with bad numbers...tool shed
2016-04-28 17:20:29 fib1618: and the XLU breadth MCO is back above its zero line
2016-04-28 17:20:33 fib1618: with a +29 reading
2016-04-28 17:20:34 mojave: amzn largest holding in XLY fwiw
2016-04-28 17:20:44 mojave: 10%
2016-04-28 17:20:48 fib1618: with a crossover buy
2016-04-28 17:20:52 fib1618: really?
2016-04-28 17:21:01 mojave: just checked
2016-04-28 17:21:04 fib1618: in discretionary?
2016-04-28 17:21:08 fib1618: that's weird
2016-04-28 17:21:09 mojave: XLY baby
2016-04-28 17:21:13 fib1618: lol
2016-04-28 17:21:23 mojave: I know - I was looking in XLK and wondered where it was...
2016-04-28 17:21:37 fib1618: well...I guess it's not technology, is it?
2016-04-28 17:21:38 mojave: not there at all
2016-04-28 17:21:42 fib1618: but it is internet
2016-04-28 17:21:50 fib1618: oh well
2016-04-28 17:22:09 fib1618: I will have to look at the components and bring myself up to speed this weekend
2016-04-28 17:22:30 fib1618: anyway
2016-04-28 17:22:43 fib1618: the XLU appears to be making a play for the all time price highs again
2016-04-28 17:23:09 fib1618: all we need is to move above the early April spike in the MCO
2016-04-28 17:23:18 fib1618: and that should be all that would be needed to accomplish that
2016-04-28 17:23:20 fib1618: so...
2016-04-28 17:23:37 fib1618: we continue to see good rotation between the sectors
2016-04-28 17:23:51 fib1618: with the XLI looking like it wants to take a breather
2016-04-28 17:24:11 fib1618: while the defensive issues look to be grabbing the lion's share of capital short term
2016-04-28 17:24:35 fib1618: energy sector continues to look buoyant
2016-04-28 17:25:10 fib1618: while technology is trying to convince the bulls that prices here are fairly valued
2016-04-28 17:25:19 fib1618: OBV's...
2016-04-28 17:26:05 fib1618: and we're getting some mixed signals here
2016-04-28 17:26:56 fib1618: with the STVO's showing that we're closer to being neutral now than being "overbought"
2016-04-28 17:27:00 fib1618: hard read there
2016-04-28 17:27:18 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.09
2016-04-28 17:27:26 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2016-04-28 17:27:39 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.03
2016-04-28 17:27:51 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.09
2016-04-28 17:28:21 fib1618: and look at the way the 21 SMA of the NASDAQ TRIN is now getting a bit on the "oversold" side
2016-04-28 17:28:31 fib1618: still thinking that we're close to a price bottom there
2016-04-28 17:28:36 fib1618: probably wrong
2016-04-28 17:28:53 fib1618: but my spidey sense continues to tingle for the growth sector
2016-04-28 17:29:13 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.09
2016-04-28 17:29:28 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.09
2016-04-28 17:29:44 fib1618: so we'll call the NASDAQ and TM "oversold"
2016-04-28 17:29:48 fib1618: and the NYSE minimally so
2016-04-28 17:30:08 fib1618: so...
2016-04-28 17:30:27 fib1618: it would appear that we had a simple profit taking session today
2016-04-28 17:31:00 fib1618: though we're closer now than we have been for the last 2 months in seeing a possible trading range begin to take shape
2016-04-28 17:31:08 fib1618: the problem for the sellers though
2016-04-28 17:31:21 fib1618: is that we continue to see elevated readings in many of the breadth MCSUM's
2016-04-28 17:31:39 fib1618: and the BETS continues to improve and is now leading price to the upside
2016-04-28 17:31:45 fib1618: at least during this weeks chat sessions
2016-04-28 17:32:05 fib1618: we'll have to wait for weekly confirmation of this after tomorrow's trading
2016-04-28 17:32:12 fib1618: let me check around at sentiment
2016-04-28 17:33:02 fib1618: still seeing a lot of bearish sentiment here in the indicators
2016-04-28 17:33:10 fib1618: let me check the p/c ratios
2016-04-28 17:33:44 mojave: I was going to call overall sentiment neutral
2016-04-28 17:33:48 fib1618: OEX is neutral
2016-04-28 17:33:53 fib1618: tie [smile]
2016-04-28 17:34:25 fib1618: so is CBOE
2016-04-28 17:35:03 fib1618: this point
2016-04-28 17:35:08 fib1618: we stay the course
2016-04-28 17:35:20 fib1618: and see how we finish the month on Friday
2016-04-28 17:35:24 fib1618: anything else?
2016-04-28 17:35:32 mojave: not here, many thanks
2016-04-28 17:35:59 mojave: sector weightings:
2016-04-28 17:36:42 mojave: and of course we all like
2016-04-28 17:36:57 fib1618: thanks for the links
2016-04-28 17:37:46 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-04-28 17:37:57 fib1618: I'm going to get out of here and go home
2016-04-28 17:38:02 fib1618: everyone have a super weekend
2016-04-28 17:38:13 fib1618: and we'll see what the market has in store for us next Tuesday
2016-04-28 17:38:15 fib1618: good night

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"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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