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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-04-28 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-04-28 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-04-28 16:00:25 [Message] steveccl -> Chat: doing well; thanks for doing this
2011-04-28 16:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...thank you all for coming
2011-04-28 16:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's my absolute pleasure
2011-04-28 16:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who are new here
2011-04-28 16:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me give you an idea of how this all works
2011-04-28 16:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do here is basically "chart the market"
2011-04-28 16:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we use as many pieces of ammunition that we can to come to some sort of conclusion on what to expect for the next day or so
2011-04-28 16:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this a neutral ground...a place to get away from everything and try to ascertain what the market may be suggesting us to do with our money
2011-04-28 16:02:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I basically lead the chat, but questions or comments are most welcome as we move along
2011-04-28 16:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so please don't hesitate to speak up if you don't understand something or even to give your point
2011-04-28 16:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main emphasis does have to do with breadth and volume analysis
2011-04-28 16:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this includes the use of the McClellan Oscillator and McClellan Summation Index so that we can measure the trend of the A/D line on two different time periods
2011-04-28 16:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one for the short term - that is of a 4-6 week duration (the MCO)
2011-04-28 16:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that of 6-12 weeks out in time (the MCSUM)
2011-04-28 16:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I hope to provide here is a area of analysis that is slow, but sure
2011-04-28 16:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will benefit all time frames
2011-04-28 16:05:01 [Message] steveccl -> Chat: thanks for that clarification on time frame; it's one of the major issues for trade decisions and various comments.
2011-04-28 16:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course it is
2011-04-28 16:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the beauty of the A/D line though
2011-04-28 16:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it instructs all traders on which side of a trade will tend to have the higher probability of success
2011-04-28 16:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this can be for a longer term investor all the way down to the day trader
2011-04-28 16:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a quick example if I may
2011-04-28 16:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCSUM gets to extremes as we have had for many months now
2011-04-28 16:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if we see a correction, it only tend to be shallow, and recoveries quick
2011-04-28 16:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is important information to know because, as we have seen over the last several months, much, if not all of the intraday declines, have taken place within the first few hours of the cash market open
2011-04-28 16:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the rest of the day tends to be more of a recovery phase
2011-04-28 16:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I refer to junctures like this as "hit and run" affairs
2011-04-28 16:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where you don't have to stick around too long to bank your profits
2011-04-28 16:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is quite of bit to learn from this to help fine tune this kind of trading
2011-04-28 16:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but those who have worked this information for a while know of its benefits
2011-04-28 16:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...before we start reviewing the days data, I usually ask the room if there is any questions or comments before you get started
2011-04-28 16:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you have a question, please feel free to ask it now...or...you're more than welcome to as we move along
2011-04-28 16:09:36 [Message] jkw -> Chat: Fib, when you say MCSUM at extreme, what number ranges would that be
2011-04-28 16:10:04 [Message] dex -> Chat: How far out or what time frame do you usually take your data?
2011-04-28 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first and foremost both the MCO and the MCSUM are oscillating tools
2011-04-28 16:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because they are oscillators, I will use something familiar, like the RSI to give my answer
2011-04-28 16:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the MCSUM
2011-04-28 16:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the zero line is neutral
2011-04-28 16:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is where there is balance between buyers and sellers on an intermediate term basis
2011-04-28 16:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO's zero line is our demarcation in this same vein but on a shorter term basis
2011-04-28 16:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this zero line then is the same at the 50% line on the RSI or MACD
2011-04-28 16:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the +500 level would be that of 70% and the -500 level would be that of 30%
2011-04-28 16:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these two levels are the classic "overbought" and "oversold" levels on most oscillator tools
2011-04-28 16:12:43 [Message] jkw -> Chat: Got it, thanks for clarification.
2011-04-28 16:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the enriching part though with the MCSUM is that these same levels are only scrapping the tip of the iceburg
2011-04-28 16:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there is much more that this tells us
2011-04-28 16:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-04-28 16:13:33 [Message] FTNT - ath today -> Chat: so the number range for the NYSI which is extreme is defined as what on the upside - +350 and above or +500 and above?
2011-04-28 16:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...+500 and -500
2011-04-28 16:13:50 [Message] FTNT - ath today -> Chat: ok
2011-04-28 16:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you work (one sec DEX) with any oscillator
2011-04-28 16:14:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that even though we can get "overbought" or "oversold" that doesn't necessarily mean that there's an end to the current direction price is taking
2011-04-28 16:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know that oscillators work their best magic when we are consolidating and not trending
2011-04-28 16:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we review here is that since the A/D line represents the flow of money that has a direct application to the direction of prices themselves
2011-04-28 16:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: knowing how strong this directional flow is will then tell us how much time will be needed for these same RSI or MACD extremes to wear off enough to where a change in the direction of price can then be anticipated
2011-04-28 16:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO can tell us this information within a day's shot
2011-04-28 16:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM though is more in the multi week bracket
2011-04-28 16:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did I answer your question Dex?
2011-04-28 16:17:24 [Message] dex -> Chat: Yes, thanks
2011-04-28 16:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would now like to show you what I call the combo chart of the NYAD so that the rest of the chat will make more sense as we move along - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/nyad042811.png
2011-04-28 16:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the combo chart shows is the NYSE A/D line in the middle with the NYSE breadth MCO at the top and the NYSE breadth MCSUM at the bottom
2011-04-28 16:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...the basic premise here of these tools is simple
2011-04-28 16:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it all has to do with the 19 day EMA (or 10% Trend) and the 39 day EMA (or 5% Trend) of the A/D line itself
2011-04-28 16:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the SPEED of which these two EMA's are either moving towards or away from each other - an accelerometer
2011-04-28 16:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM measures the DISTANCE between these same EMA's produced by this same energy
2011-04-28 16:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we look at the A/D line first
2011-04-28 16:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we are currently at all time highs
2011-04-28 16:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing with that is that since 1926 there has never been a time in which the NYSE group of stocks have seen a price top with the A/D line making higher highs
2011-04-28 16:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: never
2011-04-28 16:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this business until something different happens, we have to give the benefit of any doubt that this will not change as we move forward unless the economics that drive monetary policy change dramatically
2011-04-28 16:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case...that capitalism is replaced by something more intrusive
2011-04-28 16:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 19 day and 39 day EMA's we see that not are they both moving higher
2011-04-28 16:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the speed in which the shorter term EMA, the 19 day EMA, is moving away from the intermediate term EMA, the 39 day EMA, is picking up speed
2011-04-28 16:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can only happen if the A/D line is moving in this same direction
2011-04-28 16:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2011-04-28 16:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the speed in which these two EMA's are moving away from each other is as fast as we have seen it since last summer's "breadth thrust"
2011-04-28 16:25:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as to not get to confusing here
2011-04-28 16:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we are able to move faster than we did previously at the beginning of April
2011-04-28 16:26:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then allow the price pattern to accelerate as well
2011-04-28 16:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good way to think of this idea is the MCO is your speedometer on your car
2011-04-28 16:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the faster you go, the further you will continue forward even if you take your foot off the accelerator pedal
2011-04-28 16:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this distance is then measured by the MCSUM - it is your road map
2011-04-28 16:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the faster you go, the longer it will take for you to slow, stop, and then reverse
2011-04-28 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why when you make a price high, and an oscillator peaks, the "car" (price) will continue with its forward motion even though you may not need as much speed (or energy) to do so
2011-04-28 16:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what we refer to as momentum
2011-04-28 16:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much the space shuttle
2011-04-28 16:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once they shut down the engines when it makes orbit
2011-04-28 16:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the craft will still continue its forward movement until an equal and opposite force is able to slow it down or stop it
2011-04-28 16:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the important thing so far is that with the A/D line at all time highs
2011-04-28 16:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the momentum of this same movement accelerating
2011-04-28 16:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's unlikely that we're going to see any change in this momentum for at least a month as it would apply directly to prices themselves
2011-04-28 16:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the way I look at the market is as a living, breathing entity
2011-04-28 16:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has heart or conviction - volume
2011-04-28 16:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it has lung capacity - breadth
2011-04-28 16:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if one or the other is missing, or out of sync, we will only be able to pause or chop
2011-04-28 16:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if both are moving together in the same direction, only then can a price trend develop
2011-04-28 16:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for much of the last 9 months or so, this has been the basic pattern of the markets
2011-04-28 16:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trend for a while...and pause
2011-04-28 16:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until the bears can get the intermediate term balance to a point in which they can take control
2011-04-28 16:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend of the markets will remain higher
2011-04-28 16:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that balancing point is the MCSUM zero line
2011-04-28 16:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just like any oscillator
2011-04-28 16:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get to neutral only then will one side be able to take control of the action over the other
2011-04-28 16:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last week...many of the MCSUM's were at their zero lines and we were compressing as a result
2011-04-28 16:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the coil starts to unwind from junctures like this
2011-04-28 16:34:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will tend to see robust moves in the direction of the side that takes control
2011-04-28 16:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is the reason why prices have rallied with such authority over the last week or so
2011-04-28 16:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before I go on...any questions or comments??
2011-04-28 16:35:48 [Message] FTNT - ath today -> Chat: it is clear, Dave
2011-04-28 16:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good...this can sometimes be overwhelming because we're looking at the market in a way that isn't quite accepted by the majority
2011-04-28 16:36:35 [Message] dex -> Chat: Will you be talking about "Bear's Last Line of Defense"
2011-04-28 16:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure
2011-04-28 16:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "Bear's Last Stand Line" is more of a longer term "put up of shut up" for the bears
2011-04-28 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the area in which we have previously seen the speed in which money has come into the market top out
2011-04-28 16:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from where the bears have been able to provide some sort of friction to the direction of the trend
2011-04-28 16:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bears are overwhelmed enough to where they can't hold the bulls top speed in the way money enters the market
2011-04-28 16:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears will have little strength to keep the bulls from making a run in prices of substantial quality
2011-04-28 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then is the "bear's last stand"
2011-04-28 16:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this current "last stand" pertains directly in relation to where prices lie toward the all time highs
2011-04-28 16:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if this line doesn't hold
2011-04-28 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only will the all time highs be challenged, they will be exceeded
2011-04-28 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and by how much, only we'll know once top speed is actually known
2011-04-28 16:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the speed...the greater the distance traveled
2011-04-28 16:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here in all of this is simple
2011-04-28 16:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all supply and demand
2011-04-28 16:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is too much demand for a limited supply of product, that product will continue to move up in price until there is not as much demand for this same product
2011-04-28 16:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the same thing as you going into your favorite retail store
2011-04-28 16:42:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there's a product in which everyone wants, but there's a limited production, the price will continue to climb
2011-04-28 16:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...we have so much excess liquidity in the system, that once it's put to work, and with large amount of companies who have bought back their shares giving us less and less of a float, prices are naturally going to move higher no matter what they say in Washington
2011-04-28 16:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or on the news
2011-04-28 16:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or on Wall Street
2011-04-28 16:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are just distractions
2011-04-28 16:43:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why it's important that we not only trust our indicators, but we also follow the money
2011-04-28 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "money knows what money likes, and money likes to make more money"
2011-04-28 16:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to think about is simple
2011-04-28 16:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not people buying that make prices go up, it's prices going up that make people buy (the demand factor)
2011-04-28 16:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many times have you sat in front of your computer screen trying to pick the right time to enter a position only to see it get away from you?
2011-04-28 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once you do commit, darn, it goes against you?
2011-04-28 16:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me...it's happened many times over the years
2011-04-28 16:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's happened to all of us
2011-04-28 16:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but knowing the direction of which money is flowing
2011-04-28 16:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with its implied strength
2011-04-28 16:46:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will then give you better confidence to enter these same positions as long as you're riding that same direction
2011-04-28 16:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...to the MCSUM at the bottom of the chart
2011-04-28 16:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who just came in
2011-04-28 16:46:56 [Message] creative.force -> Chat: and the " bears last stand" "this" of which you speak we are there NOW??
2011-04-28 16:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the combo chart - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/nyad042811.png
2011-04-28 16:47:03 [Message] creative.force -> Chat: yes sorry for being late
2011-04-28 16:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes CF
2011-04-28 16:47:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: thanks
2011-04-28 16:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem...welcome to all
2011-04-28 16:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the beauty of the McClellan Summation Index is many
2011-04-28 16:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a cursory view the distance between each one of the postings shows you, at a glance, not only how much (fast) money is going in or out of the market, but it also tells you the how fluid this same liquidity quotient is
2011-04-28 16:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it moving into just a handful of stocks or is it on a more broadly based basis
2011-04-28 16:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is where the +500 and -500 levels come into play on the MCSUM
2011-04-28 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for when the MCSUM is able to get above or below these levels, the greater majority of stocks on that exchange are actually supported by this same directional flow of money
2011-04-28 16:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so being...the broader the flow, the broader the market trend
2011-04-28 16:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the broader the trend, the stronger it is
2011-04-28 16:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...when you get above the +500 level, for example, the average stock would tend to move in 1/2 point to 1 point increments
2011-04-28 16:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get to the +750 level, the average stock would then move in 3/4 to 1 1/4 point increments
2011-04-28 16:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more imbalance you have the easier it is to move prices in the ongoing direction of the trend since we don't have any opposite effect to worry about
2011-04-28 16:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is another reason why the trend of late has been undeniable
2011-04-28 16:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with nothing suggesting that we're due for a pause
2011-04-28 16:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...with that said
2011-04-28 16:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get into this kind of condition
2011-04-28 16:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will always do its best to correct any excesses as best as it can in the least amount of time
2011-04-28 16:53:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good example of this is that over the last several months every single reversal has been met with calls of a top
2011-04-28 16:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you suddenly get this kind of shift in sentiment
2011-04-28 16:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's usually enough to relieve this same excess quickly, and once done, the trend can then continue at about the same speed as before
2011-04-28 16:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a great example of this would be the last 3 days of silver
2011-04-28 16:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the trend has been so strong, that we had pause just to catch our breath, and once calls for a top were focused upon, up we went again
2011-04-28 16:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like a marathon runner
2011-04-28 16:55:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving just to fast to keep up the pace, and his body forces you to take a pause
2011-04-28 16:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but after the pause...off you go again
2011-04-28 16:56:34 [Message] jkw -> Chat: There has been a major disconnect between the physical silver price and the silver stocks the last few weeks. Physical silver new highs but not the stocks. They are in a descending triangle.
2011-04-28 16:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed JKW
2011-04-28 16:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is a warning shot and not be discounted
2011-04-28 16:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however back in 1980
2011-04-28 16:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a gold bugs blow off a month before the January highs
2011-04-28 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being that the gold bugs are highly emotional group of traders
2011-04-28 16:58:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will tend to go "all in" just as the market itself is just about finished its run
2011-04-28 16:58:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bigger difference between now and then however
2011-04-28 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the current monetary policy of the FED of allowing interest rates to remain well below what would be normal levels as compared to the CPI
2011-04-28 16:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: provides this excess in stimulus to precious metals for intrinsic value
2011-04-28 16:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where paper money continues to lose its value
2011-04-28 16:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2011-04-28 16:59:59 [Message] FTNT - ath today -> Chat: Dave - is it OK if I post a chart link incl NYMO and NYSI which I use as an aid to see the horizontal structure for NYSI over time?
2011-04-28 17:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the FED, and the other global central banks, continue to have their foot weighted on the accelerator
2011-04-28 17:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold and silver will continue to move higher
2011-04-28 17:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure...post as you wish
2011-04-28 17:00:27 [Message] FTNT - ath today -> Chat: I am curious what NYSI levels define the horizontal structure for you?
2011-04-28 17:00:33 [Message] FTNT - ath today -> Chat: http://tinyurl.com/4xmnqfg
2011-04-28 17:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you're seeing in your chart is a great example of "liquidity waves"
2011-04-28 17:01:28 [Message] FTNT - ath today -> Chat: ok
2011-04-28 17:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see how QE and FED policy is reaching stocks
2011-04-28 17:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like standing on the end of a pier and watching the waves roll into shore...some will be longer and some will be shorter in their duration
2011-04-28 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now here is a neat little trick with the MCSUM
2011-04-28 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the further the expansion of the individual postings of the MCSUM
2011-04-28 17:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more or less money is either moving into or out of the market
2011-04-28 17:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if then the postings are congested
2011-04-28 17:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this shows you that which ever this direction we're traveling
2011-04-28 17:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that side is weak in their convictions
2011-04-28 17:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you look at the period between December and March of this year for example
2011-04-28 17:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that although there wasn't a whole lot of conviction by the bulls
2011-04-28 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it didn't stop prices from moving higher because there wasn't enough on the sell side to slow this "overbought" momentum
2011-04-28 17:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money kept coming in
2011-04-28 17:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and coming in
2011-04-28 17:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and coming in
2011-04-28 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there wasn't anything to say sell...and the other asset classes were either fairly or fully valued
2011-04-28 17:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it went in to stocks
2011-04-28 17:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the biggest problem we currently face as traders
2011-04-28 17:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that there is so much excess liquidity out there right now
2011-04-28 17:06:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that just about every asset class is at least fairly, if not, fully valued
2011-04-28 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some are over valued
2011-04-28 17:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when they are
2011-04-28 17:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money searches out other areas which it deems under or fairly valued
2011-04-28 17:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what we're really missing here more than anything is clarity between how money actually moves through the system
2011-04-28 17:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the FED turns on the spigot full on
2011-04-28 17:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any excesses of overflow will first go into gold as it would in a bypass
2011-04-28 17:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then moves into commodities
2011-04-28 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then into debt
2011-04-28 17:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finally into equities
2011-04-28 17:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's happened now is that rotation between these asset classes has become more of a blur than anything else
2011-04-28 17:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it makes it a little difficult to have any sense of asset allocation
2011-04-28 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's for another time
2011-04-28 17:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the combo chart and the MCSUM
2011-04-28 17:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see that have two simple trend lines in purple
2011-04-28 17:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of a top beneath a top
2011-04-28 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one as a horizontal ledge
2011-04-28 17:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what that horizontal ledge has turned into has been our new MCSUM zero line because of this same excess in money
2011-04-28 17:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it brings home the idea of how awash we are in money right now that we can't even come to a level of neutrality
2011-04-28 17:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from where we can't even get enough selling to give us a price correction of more than 5%
2011-04-28 17:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until we're able to get below this same line, we're not likely to get one
2011-04-28 17:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if there's a 9.0 earthquake and a tsunami
2011-04-28 17:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not likely to get one
2011-04-28 17:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is just too much money supporting prices at this time
2011-04-28 17:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until that changes
2011-04-28 17:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can short
2011-04-28 17:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but your time frame for these same shorts is that of only hours...maybe a day
2011-04-28 17:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like trying to keep a basketball below the water line in the deep end of a swimming pool
2011-04-28 17:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless you keep the pressure on
2011-04-28 17:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once released
2011-04-28 17:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will quickly rise to the surface and even above it
2011-04-28 17:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's why we have broken out to the upside here
2011-04-28 17:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although...it took a month to do so
2011-04-28 17:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again...a 1/3 of an important globaal developed country was being questioned as to its being able to move on from this same disaster
2011-04-28 17:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all told...not a bad job
2011-04-28 17:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be duly noted today
2011-04-28 17:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Dow Transports closed at new all time highs today
2011-04-28 17:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: joining the SML, MID, VLE and RUT indexes
2011-04-28 17:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ composite and NDX closed at 10 year highs
2011-04-28 17:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the spigot is still full on with indication that it's not going to be shut off anytime soon?
2011-04-28 17:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions?
2011-04-28 17:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then let me show you couple of other chart
2011-04-28 17:15:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: How long does it take for the money coming out of the spigot to reach the equity markets?
2011-04-28 17:16:08 [Message] steveccl -> Chat: or other markets, if there is a metric...
2011-04-28 17:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on average it takes about 12-18 months from policy shift to equity stimulus
2011-04-28 17:16:23 [Message] doc -> Chat: Why is that?
2011-04-28 17:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when the FED is doing something like QE
2011-04-28 17:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes a while before it moves into equities...it is NOT instantaneous
2011-04-28 17:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all excesses find their way initially into gold first
2011-04-28 17:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the savings account when all else is valued appropriately
2011-04-28 17:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it then moves into commodities as this excess starts to stabilize the economy
2011-04-28 17:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then pushes business to build inventories
2011-04-28 17:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the more they buy, the more the demand - the more the demand...the higher prices go
2011-04-28 17:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why gold is an indicator of impending inflation
2011-04-28 17:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't measure inflation as many believe
2011-04-28 17:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it forecasts it
2011-04-28 17:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these same forecasts then echo into commodities later on
2011-04-28 17:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with oil, for example, there is a 4 month lag
2011-04-28 17:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you took a chart of gold and moved it forward 4 months you will see that oil prices echo its direction
2011-04-28 17:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes it's muted or accentuated by geopolitical circumstances
2011-04-28 17:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the trend remains consistent
2011-04-28 17:20:02 [Message] steveccl -> Chat: then would the "higher risk" classes of equities (RUT/EEM) be laggards naturally due to the flow of liquidity?
2011-04-28 17:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this excess then moves into debt and finally into stocks
2011-04-28 17:20:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it all depends on how much excess is applied
2011-04-28 17:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of a marina filled with boats
2011-04-28 17:20:56 [Message] steveccl -> Chat: just trying to understand the lower momo on those indices at the moment....
2011-04-28 17:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the boats that are closer to the height of the water (under normal circumstances) would rise first (high caps)
2011-04-28 17:21:22 [Message] steveccl -> Chat: 10.4
2011-04-28 17:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those toward the back of the marina will get their share later on as the depth of the lake rises
2011-04-28 17:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a good question
2011-04-28 17:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once the marina is filled
2011-04-28 17:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those boats in the back of the marina can then move out to deeper waters first
2011-04-28 17:22:25 [Message] doc -> Chat: Thanks, great answer
2011-04-28 17:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and lead the way for the bigger boats that are the front of the marina (large caps)
2011-04-28 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this filling process takes time
2011-04-28 17:22:43 [Message] FTNT - ath today -> Chat: Gold with oil futures as a pink overlay - monthly http://tinyurl.com/6zhzf2u
2011-04-28 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...you can see how oil is following gold's lead
2011-04-28 17:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2011-04-28 17:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we should expect even higher oil prices four months from now knowing that gold continues to make higher highs at the current time
2011-04-28 17:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the excuses for why will come later
2011-04-28 17:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as technicians all we care about is direction
2011-04-28 17:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probability to outcome of it actually happening
2011-04-28 17:24:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all that matters
2011-04-28 17:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is a distraction
2011-04-28 17:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: means nothing
2011-04-28 17:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are bombarded with ideas every day
2011-04-28 17:24:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when push comes to shove
2011-04-28 17:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing that makes prices move higher is having the money to do so
2011-04-28 17:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take away this stimulus
2011-04-28 17:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and prices will sag
2011-04-28 17:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when they sag enough
2011-04-28 17:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people then sell because there isn't more liquidity to absorb these loses
2011-04-28 17:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since there's no new money replacing what has already been allocated
2011-04-28 17:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will then continue to move even lower until there's enough money to stabilize that level
2011-04-28 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort like a house
2011-04-28 17:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can ask anything you wish, but unless you find someone else that will agree with you, you will have to lower your price until you do find someone who does
2011-04-28 17:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing different here
2011-04-28 17:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the biggest distractions for most are simple
2011-04-28 17:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much debt
2011-04-28 17:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much excess
2011-04-28 17:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have heard this kind of thing for thousands of years
2011-04-28 17:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but markets have basically moved higher in spite of this, haven't they?
2011-04-28 17:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there must be something else that makes the markets move in one direction or the other
2011-04-28 17:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would money flow
2011-04-28 17:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the best way to read how much money there is for investment in the stock market is the A/D line
2011-04-28 17:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing else has this advantage
2011-04-28 17:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-04-28 17:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we've talked about breadth of market
2011-04-28 17:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what actually pushes prices forward comes with the volume side of the equation
2011-04-28 17:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like a sail boat on the water
2011-04-28 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the water being breadth (liquidity)...volume being the wind that pushes it across the surface
2011-04-28 17:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and true, this has been a thorn in many technicians side
2011-04-28 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mostly because of the daily data
2011-04-28 17:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the more important data here is the plurality of how this volume is pushing the boat
2011-04-28 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here is the NAUD line - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/nyud042811.png
2011-04-28 17:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you can see, we moved to new 3 year highs today
2011-04-28 17:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not only are we getting more money moving into the market
2011-04-28 17:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with volume plurality now moving with this flow
2011-04-28 17:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can now say that although much of what was going on over the last 4 weeks was more in the short covering area
2011-04-28 17:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with these new highs in the NYUD, we can now say that fresh money is entering the market and pushing the boat forward
2011-04-28 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's very important information
2011-04-28 17:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because this gives us extra buoyancy for prices to continue in the direction of its trend
2011-04-28 17:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether it's an uptrend or downtrend
2011-04-28 17:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same physics apply
2011-04-28 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can not move an object without some sort of energy (or force) being applied
2011-04-28 17:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we have that
2011-04-28 17:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have both the heart and lungs of the market moving in the same direction
2011-04-28 17:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when this happens, we are said to trend
2011-04-28 17:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the combo chart of the NASDAQ A/D data - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/naad042811.png
2011-04-28 17:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now the first thing that should pop out at you is that the A/D line is now back into a bullish configuration
2011-04-28 17:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would mean that the breadth line is leading the 19 day which is leading the 39 day which is leading the 200 day EMA higher
2011-04-28 17:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as this configuration remains, prices will then tend to have an easier time moving in this same direction of which money flow is traveling
2011-04-28 17:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that we remain locked in a horizontal range of sorts
2011-04-28 17:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until we're able to move above the overhead resistance line, although broadly based, not all of the NASDAQ stocks are moving in unison at this time
2011-04-28 17:37:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely...the heavier weighted issues of this exchange are doing most of the work load
2011-04-28 17:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if anyone has DP, if you look at the NDX McClellan data, you will see that this is pretty much the case right now
2011-04-28 17:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MCO wise
2011-04-28 17:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it remains positive with a divergent base
2011-04-28 17:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but money is not moving as quickly into this arena as it is into the NYSE group of stocks
2011-04-28 17:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: information like this is also important because it allows us to determine how much money we should apply towards one exchange over the other at any given time
2011-04-28 17:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...here's another important piece of information of the MCSUM
2011-04-28 17:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the zero line of the MCSUM is where the 19 day EMA and 39 day EMA of the A/D line are even with each other
2011-04-28 17:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCSUM moves above the zero line, the 19 day is above the 39 day
2011-04-28 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: below the zero line, and the 19 day is below the 39 day
2011-04-28 17:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as you apply EMA's to any price chart
2011-04-28 17:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this EMA crossover tells you how strong or how weak a price chart is
2011-04-28 17:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from that you can make a determination on how much exposure you should give to that same issue
2011-04-28 17:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same idea applies here
2011-04-28 17:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when these EMA's cross, or when the MCSUM plays tag in and around it's zero line
2011-04-28 17:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only does this tell us that we have equal balance between buyers and sellers
2011-04-28 17:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this also provides a compression point as well
2011-04-28 17:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer the compression, the larger the release once the spring uncoils
2011-04-28 17:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for now...the bulls not only are taking the reigns here on an intermediate term basis
2011-04-28 17:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if they can break above the declining tops line shown the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-04-28 17:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will then have total control of the direction of the price pattern itself
2011-04-28 17:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just like a price chart
2011-04-28 17:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these kind of junctures can provide impressive results if you follow this leading indication
2011-04-28 17:44:47 [Message] jkw -> Chat: It is interesting to me that although the NASDAQ summation has been much weaker than the NYSE, never the less price has continued up just like the NYSE index.
2011-04-28 17:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price chart is already at 10 year highs...
2011-04-28 17:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that there's not a lot of sellers out there as they try to make back what they lost in 2000
2011-04-28 17:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correct JKW
2011-04-28 17:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ exchange is inherently a weaker exchange to begin with
2011-04-28 17:45:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is an exchange of secondary stocks
2011-04-28 17:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stocks that couldn't come up with the minimal requirements to be listed on the NYSE
2011-04-28 17:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many of these same products don't have a track record
2011-04-28 17:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and everything here is based on the expectation of growth
2011-04-28 17:46:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if these stocks are going to get any love at all
2011-04-28 17:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there better be more than enough liquidity to move into these issues that have a higher risk of total return
2011-04-28 17:47:30 [Message] doc -> Chat: Most of the price of the compq is determined by the ndx 100
2011-04-28 17:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the liquidity quotient, the more apt that money will take a bigger risk
2011-04-28 17:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is Doc
2011-04-28 17:47:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: the mcsum of the ndx has been much stronger than the nasdaq
2011-04-28 17:47:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: this can be seen at DP
2011-04-28 17:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I believe that there wouldn't be much of an argument that the top 10 NDX should be listed on the NYSE
2011-04-28 17:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're not
2011-04-28 17:48:18 [Message] jkw -> Chat: Good to know, thanks
2011-04-28 17:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they are treated as go to's just as if they were listed on the NYSE
2011-04-28 17:48:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: at least AAPL, rh? LOL
2011-04-28 17:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...AAPL is the largest company on the planet now
2011-04-28 17:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next to Exxon
2011-04-28 17:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here in the chat our bet is that AAPL will be in the Dow index by the end of the year
2011-04-28 17:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...let me show you the NAUD - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/naud042811.png
2011-04-28 17:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's here where volume makes the difference as it applies to price
2011-04-28 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are now a day away from making new all time highs
2011-04-28 17:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see what compression can do to a pattern
2011-04-28 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-04-28 17:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing in all this is quite simple
2011-04-28 17:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we currently have all the ingredients in place where a rather historic rally can take place
2011-04-28 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have breadth and volume now moving in sync with each other
2011-04-28 17:52:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: In that naud chart, it looked like we were going to breakdown at first
2011-04-28 17:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have the broad market leading which tells us that there is more than ample liquidity to continue in this same direction
2011-04-28 17:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...but all that liquidity wouldn't let it
2011-04-28 17:52:31 [Message] doc -> Chat: Broke below the emas, back-kissed them then dropped to a lower low.
2011-04-28 17:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...that's actually an interesting phenomenon with these charts
2011-04-28 17:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what usually happens in the context of a strong trend
2011-04-28 17:53:26 [Message] doc -> Chat: So is it better to get a certain distance from the compression zone before you can be comfortable that it isn't a "fakeout" in the wrong direction?
2011-04-28 17:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the job of the A/D and U/D lines to pause from time to time so that it can catch its breath
2011-04-28 17:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to do this, the breadth and volume lines will either move sideways or lower in order to pull the shorter and intermediate term EMA's back to some sort of mean
2011-04-28 17:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer term mean here comes with the 200 day EMA
2011-04-28 17:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we see the both of these shorter term EMA's move to or slightly below the 1% Trend (200 day EMA)
2011-04-28 17:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: enough has been done in the correction process for the pattern to re-initiate the trend (the MCSUM moves to the zero line)
2011-04-28 17:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most times in strong trends
2011-04-28 17:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these correctional periods are news related and are rarely economically based
2011-04-28 17:56:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the economics is the trend in force in which money is available
2011-04-28 17:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: uptrends would equate to expansions
2011-04-28 17:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downtrends to contractions
2011-04-28 17:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the counter move is "forced" against this same trend of money flow
2011-04-28 17:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a "pause to refresh" where too much, too fast has occurred
2011-04-28 17:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see this all the time
2011-04-28 17:57:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's part of what makes a trend unique in its structure
2011-04-28 17:57:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get a chart to reinforce the point...one moment
2011-04-28 17:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/nyad2009.png
2011-04-28 17:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not exactly what I was looking for
2011-04-28 17:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the important thing here is that
2011-04-28 17:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend in money flow has been so strong
2011-04-28 17:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that all the A/D needed to do since 2009 is move the 19 day EMA below its 39 day EMA complete the pause (or rest period) in the larger trend
2011-04-28 18:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll notice that there's been so much money in the system that we couldn't even get close to a "real correction" to the 200 day EMA
2011-04-28 18:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the strength in which we're working with over the last 2 years
2011-04-28 18:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just like trying to fight your way in a rip tide
2011-04-28 18:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might have some success taking the other side of the trade
2011-04-28 18:01:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will be with a lot of effort, and generally, will show little for the effort
2011-04-28 18:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...
2011-04-28 18:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was a nice trade could be lost quite quickly
2011-04-28 18:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so.....I hope this little bit of review has opened some doors for you
2011-04-28 18:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from which you'll want to do some additional due diligence in this area
2011-04-28 18:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions or comments?
2011-04-28 18:02:58 [Message] mike -> Chat: fib sorry I am not able to click on any of your links or I get kicked out, so I brought up $NYSI daily on stockcharts and connected the descending tops, looks like if NYSI gets > about 700 then that would show that it is a good rally? Is that what you were saying a several minutes ago?
2011-04-28 18:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry about the problems - the chat software can be quirky at times with a lot of people in the room
2011-04-28 18:03:48 [Message] mike -> Chat: no problem
2011-04-28 18:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the MCSUM travels, the stronger the trend
2011-04-28 18:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it this way
2011-04-28 18:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you apply 3 EMA's on a price chart
2011-04-28 18:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the direction of the price trend is higher
2011-04-28 18:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are going to be times in which the price trend is going to attempt to pull back to its shorter term trend
2011-04-28 18:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may even pull back in between the short and intermediate term EMA
2011-04-28 18:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the wider the distance between these two EMA's
2011-04-28 18:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher percentage that you're going to find solid support for the pattern
2011-04-28 18:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and these are the areas where you're able to add to a position with hard and fast rules in covering the trade in case it goes sour
2011-04-28 18:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the higher the number in the MCSUM
2011-04-28 18:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the wider the distance between these same EMA's
2011-04-28 18:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so being
2011-04-28 18:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the A/D line finds support and again moves higher
2011-04-28 18:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will be able to move to higher highs as well with not as much effort in doing so
2011-04-28 18:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which brings up one other important point
2011-04-28 18:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCSUM turns lower from an high extreme (in this case)
2011-04-28 18:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is NOT a sell signal
2011-04-28 18:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a pause in the trend as it becomes "overextended" (the distance between two EMA period is over extended)
2011-04-28 18:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2011-04-28 18:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once any excesses are rid of (the gap narrows in this same distance)
2011-04-28 18:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM then turns higher
2011-04-28 18:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a very high probability that you will see new highs in prices
2011-04-28 18:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would actually be the momentum of the energy already expended previously in the pattern to get it to this same extreme
2011-04-28 18:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the shuttle keeps moving to higher highs in spite of the fact that engines have already shut down, and higher still once you get any course corrections later on
2011-04-28 18:09:49 [Message] onegoal -> Chat: when the MCSUM turns lower, is this when you will find sector rotation occurring ?
2011-04-28 18:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sector rotation is an ongoing thing
2011-04-28 18:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the direction of the trend money is moving to undervalued areas constantly
2011-04-28 18:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once these extremes are made
2011-04-28 18:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once they turn
2011-04-28 18:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the amount of different sectors that are involved become less and less as there is less and less liquidity being taken out of the system
2011-04-28 18:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-04-28 18:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last Tuesday we reviewed all of the sector charts
2011-04-28 18:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we found that maybe half of the sectors we reviewed were leading to the upside
2011-04-28 18:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCSUM continues to climb higher
2011-04-28 18:12:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more and more sectors will start to get involved as more and more money is introduced into the exchange
2011-04-28 18:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCSUM turns lower
2011-04-28 18:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: less and less will be involved...but they may be in different sectors
2011-04-28 18:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all a matter of value
2011-04-28 18:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: perceived or otherwise and how much liquidity is available to be put to work
2011-04-28 18:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just looked over the list and find some very familiar names...hi to all...thanks for coming
2011-04-28 18:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...I'm going to have to wind this up for today
2011-04-28 18:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will be another session over at Mark's board on Monday
at the same time...4:00 Pacific
2011-04-28 18:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you found this information either interesting or useful and you want to pursue it further, I invite you to "kick the tires" with a one month subscription. The one thing I can promise you is that you will come away with a different outlook on the markets, and more importantly, you will increase your confidence factor in trading the markets
2011-04-28 18:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are there any other questions...comments...??
2011-04-28 18:14:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: Thanks for a nice review, Fib.
2011-04-28 18:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're welcome Doc
2011-04-28 18:15:12 [Message] steveccl -> Chat: Thanks again.
2011-04-28 18:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do this every Tuesday and Thursday and I also offer breadth charts not available anywhere else on the net as well
2011-04-28 18:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more information on subscriptions can be found at http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm
2011-04-28 18:15:48 [Message] Rocket_Man88 -> Chat: Thanks I've enjoyed this.
2011-04-28 18:15:56 [Message] steveccl -> Chat: how much is DP, do you know offhand?
2011-04-28 18:16:09 [Message] watcher -> Chat: Thanks FIB, are you going to post a transcript of this chat
2011-04-28 18:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: DP is $19.95 a month
2011-04-28 18:16:16 [Message] FTNT - ath today -> Chat: thanks, Dave!
2011-04-28 18:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the wealth of information there is priceless
2011-04-28 18:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I highly recommend it
2011-04-28 18:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether you use it with the chat or not doesn't matter
2011-04-28 18:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a small price to pay for the insight it provides
2011-04-28 18:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...I'm going to wind this up for today
2011-04-28 18:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, yes, the transcripts will be posted sometime in the am
2011-04-28 18:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have any other questions over the weekend, come to Monday's session over at Traders-Talk fully armed
2011-04-28 18:17:48 [Message] FTNT - ath today -> Chat: link yet for Monday?
2011-04-28 18:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and thank you all for coming today
2011-04-28 18:18:10 [Message] mike -> Chat: thanks for your time
2011-04-28 18:18:17 [Message] FTNT - ath today -> Chat: ok
2011-04-28 18:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the direct link for Monday's chat -
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?autocom=chatsigma
2011-04-28 18:18:24 [Message] FTNT - ath today -> Chat: yes
2011-04-28 18:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...everyone have a great weekend
2011-04-28 18:18:43 [Message] onegoal -> Chat: thx - very informative and interesting
2011-04-28 18:18:45 [Message] manuj -> Chat: mark's board?
2011-04-28 18:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I hope to see you all on Monday...yes Mark's board
2011-04-28 18:19:08 [Message] manuj -> Chat: Tuesday back here?
2011-04-28 18:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yes, we are back here on Tuesday
2011-04-28 18:19:16 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok
2011-04-28 18:19:17 [Message] manuj -> Chat: thanks
2011-04-28 18:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regular schedule next week
2011-04-28 18:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks again everyone...I hope you found it informative
2011-04-28 18:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-04-28 18:19:48 [Message] manuj -> Chat: thanks

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