All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 5,161
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-04-21 16:00:05 fib1618: good day
2016-04-21 16:00:10 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-04-21 16:02:18 fib1618: good morning
2016-04-21 16:02:26 mojave: g'day!
2016-04-21 16:03:57 fib1618: or as we say here in the states, "good eye"!
2016-04-21 16:04:28 fib1618: that way you sound Aussie without even trying [smile]
2016-04-21 16:04:56 mojave: I'll never sound Aussie
2016-04-21 16:05:00 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-04-21 16:05:05 fib1618: of course not
2016-04-21 16:05:07 fib1618: [smile]
2016-04-21 16:05:18 mojave: no questions
2016-04-21 16:05:41 fib1618: let me take a quick look at the BETS data first...brb
2016-04-21 16:07:07 fib1618: +40
2016-04-21 16:07:23 mojave: not a surprise really
2016-04-21 16:07:25 fib1618: as we continue to get bullish configurations now
2016-04-21 16:07:28 fib1618: nope
2016-04-21 16:07:47 mojave: (to us)
2016-04-21 16:07:54 fib1618: we had at least 4 or 5 charts that had a chance to go bullish last weekend within 7/10 trading days
2016-04-21 16:08:17 fib1618: there are two others that may trigger on Friday on any strength
2016-04-21 16:08:31 fib1618: NYUD and NAUD
2016-04-21 16:09:16 fib1618: with anything at a +45 or better giving us a stronger signal to go long
2016-04-21 16:09:26 fib1618: OK...with that bit of knowledge
2016-04-21 16:09:36 fib1618: let's get SC up and see how things are looking
2016-04-21 16:10:07 fib1618: after moving to a +45 reading on Tuesday
2016-04-21 16:10:22 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has now moved lower over the last couple of days
2016-04-21 16:10:34 fib1618: finishing today with a +9 reading
2016-04-21 16:11:02 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO MCO components
2016-04-21 16:11:14 fib1618: and we note that the 10% Trend has now snapped back to the 5% Trend
2016-04-21 16:11:30 fib1618: and this usually means that we'll see a technical bounce as soon as Friday
2016-04-21 16:11:55 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM has now moved to a higher high
2016-04-21 16:12:14 fib1618: so we don't have the worry of pattern divergence at this time between it and prices on the NYA
2016-04-21 16:12:47 fib1618: though not being able to move above the +50 on the MCO
2016-04-21 16:13:19 fib1618: does give us a near term cause of concern as to the bulls conviction as we move forward
2016-04-21 16:13:53 fib1618: pretty much the same situation with the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-04-21 16:14:04 fib1618: as it has also snapped back toward its zero line
2016-04-21 16:14:13 fib1618: after peaking out at the +41 level
2016-04-21 16:14:32 fib1618: so our expectation of some back and fill from Tuesday seems to have been met
2016-04-21 16:15:22 fib1618: as we are now seeing a lessening a selling pressure in the interest rate related issues compared to the common only issues that trade on the NYSE
2016-04-21 16:15:53 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM continues to move higher
2016-04-21 16:16:05 fib1618: as it has a date to challenge the +1250 level
2016-04-21 16:16:46 fib1618: with the NYSE Composite MCO components also hinting that we're likely to see a technical bounce near term
2016-04-21 16:17:16 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-04-21 16:17:32 fib1618: and here we see good news as the pull back, at least so far, has been shallow
2016-04-21 16:17:45 fib1618: however, we have broken below last weeks low point in the pattern
2016-04-21 16:18:43 fib1618: this may indicate that we're starting to see intermediate term resistance here on a trending basis as the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM approaches the +500 level with a reading today of +488
2016-04-21 16:18:59 fib1618: NASDAQ Components also remain elevated here
2016-04-21 16:19:20 fib1618: and with the knowledge of the NASDAQ Open 10 at near "oversold" levels on Tuesday
2016-04-21 16:19:31 fib1618: this could turn out to be a good buy point for the index overall
2016-04-21 16:20:07 fib1618: moving to the "judge and jury" that is the NDX breadth MCO
2016-04-21 16:20:21 fib1618: and here we got our technical bounce off the zero line on Wednesday
2016-04-21 16:20:32 fib1618: as we moved down and through this same zero line today
2016-04-21 16:20:43 fib1618: but the damage was rather muted overall
2016-04-21 16:20:51 fib1618: in fact
2016-04-21 16:21:06 fib1618: the NDX closed higher today by .36
2016-04-21 16:21:33 fib1618: so we remain congested, indecisive, here with this group of issues
2016-04-21 16:21:52 fib1618: and considering how several highly weighted issues have been taking it on the chin in the last couple of days
2016-04-21 16:22:08 fib1618: one could suggest the action overall as being bullish as we the index has absorbed this punishment
2016-04-21 16:22:39 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2016-04-21 16:22:48 fib1618: and here we have also snapped back to the zero line with a reading today of +3
2016-04-21 16:23:22 fib1618: the SPX 10% Trend has also snapped back down to the 5% component as well
2016-04-21 16:23:36 fib1618: so a technical bounce here would be our expectation as soon as Friday
2016-04-21 16:24:31 fib1618: with it being helpful for the buyers to get the SPX breadth MCSUM to move to a higher high so that the market may not be out of sync short term
2016-04-21 16:24:50 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO continues to look solid here
2016-04-21 16:25:00 fib1618: as its pullback remains above last weeks reaction lows
2016-04-21 16:25:32 fib1618: and landing today just below the natural support level of +25 with a +24 reading
2016-04-21 16:26:12 fib1618: things there look to be in decent shape
2016-04-21 16:26:52 fib1618: if only the top 100 issues can help now in getting the broader 500 issues in the SPX to agree we be in a good position to rally for much of the month of May
2016-04-21 16:27:44 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO was a bit weaker than the OEX MCO
2016-04-21 16:27:51 fib1618: but as a chartist
2016-04-21 16:28:25 fib1618: we did complete the expectation of a snapback to the old price highs seen in the fall today
2016-04-21 16:28:39 fib1618: and with the Dow breadth MCSUM making higher highs
2016-04-21 16:29:02 fib1618: the expectation is for a quick reversal in a further attempt to move to higher highs
2016-04-21 16:29:36 fib1618: nice looking "impulsive" structure now seen on the daily Dow price chart
2016-04-21 16:29:48 fib1618: so the path of least resistance there remains higher
2016-04-21 16:30:08 fib1618: snapback to the zero line also complete on the MID breadth MCO
2016-04-21 16:30:32 fib1618: while the components have also fulfilled this technical snapback action
2016-04-21 16:31:09 fib1618: still a bit of resistance here it would seem at the +1000 level it would seem in the MID breadth MCSUM
2016-04-21 16:31:57 fib1618: so a technical bounce there would also be suggested just so we can see if there's any buyers waiting in the wings to climb on board the train or not
2016-04-21 16:32:35 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO continues to mimic the NYSE data
2016-04-21 16:32:48 fib1618: as it peaked out at +43
2016-04-21 16:33:01 fib1618: and has since snapped back toward its zero line
2016-04-21 16:33:14 fib1618: coming in today with a +10 reading
2016-04-21 16:33:57 fib1618: SML components are also showing good buoyancy right now
2016-04-21 16:34:16 fib1618: while the SML breadth MCSUM is working out its differences with the +750 level
2016-04-21 16:34:40 fib1618: so any good strength here on Friday
2016-04-21 16:34:52 fib1618: and we should be in the clear for this index to challenge the all time highs
2016-04-21 16:35:42 fib1618: note also how the SML breadth MCSUM pattern found snapback support with the previous highs seen last December
2016-04-21 16:36:17 fib1618: which again shows that liquidity levels remain ample enough here to cushion any bearish ambushes that might come up
2016-04-21 16:36:56 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO took out last week's low point by 2 points
2016-04-21 16:37:31 fib1618: with the TM MCO components remaining nicely elevated above their zero line
2016-04-21 16:37:57 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCSUM on its way in what should be its next challenge at the +1000 level
2016-04-21 16:38:14 fib1618: so...
2016-04-21 16:38:36 fib1618: we continue to see the market moving higher
2016-04-21 16:38:43 fib1618: but at the same time
2016-04-21 16:38:59 fib1618: we have some areas that could use a booster shot near term to keep the ball rolling
2016-04-21 16:39:08 fib1618: overall though
2016-04-21 16:39:14 fib1618: the sellers have very little power here
2016-04-21 16:39:46 fib1618: so any kind of pullback should be looked upon as an accumulation point in the longer term rising price structure
2016-04-21 16:40:47 fib1618: OK...let's see how the sectors look
2016-04-21 16:42:37 fib1618: after peaking out at the +25 level last week
2016-04-21 16:42:48 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO has now turned negative
2016-04-21 16:43:11 fib1618: and with it
2016-04-21 16:43:29 fib1618: there seems to be some resistance here at the +750 level on the XLY breadth MCSUM
2016-04-21 16:43:41 fib1618: with that said
2016-04-21 16:45:51 fib1618: the XLY components do remain elevated here above their zero line
2016-04-21 16:46:15 fib1618: so, if anything, prices are likely to chop around for a week or so
2016-04-21 16:46:33 fib1618: as we also know that the upside price targets were met last week
2016-04-21 16:46:42 fib1618: so not too surprising...let's call it a hold for now
2016-04-21 16:47:26 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCO, on the other hand, is continuing to follow through on its warning sign of last week that things were likely to turn around for the bulls short term
2016-04-21 16:47:50 fib1618: with the expected zero line snapback completed on Tuesday
2016-04-21 16:48:07 fib1618: and a total flush of selling over the last couple of days
2016-04-21 16:48:20 fib1618: looking at the XLP components
2016-04-21 16:48:32 fib1618: and we see that the 10% Trend has moved down and through its zero line now
2016-04-21 16:49:01 fib1618: while the 5% finished today at just above its zero line with a +10 reading
2016-04-21 16:49:05 fib1618: taken together then
2016-04-21 16:49:19 fib1618: we should see a reflex rally here as soon as Friday in this index
2016-04-21 16:50:09 fib1618: with the XLP breadth MCO now "oversold" enough with a -89 reading to suggest a bottom in prices for the next couple of weeks
2016-04-21 16:50:22 fib1618: in what would likely develop into as a trading range
2016-04-21 16:51:03 fib1618: note also how the price action accelerated lower as the XLP breadth MCO moved down and through the +1000 level
2016-04-21 16:51:58 fib1618: so any rally here may be a good time to take some profits on our longs from the February lows and stand aside for now
2016-04-21 16:52:27 fib1618: the action in the XLE continues to improve
2016-04-21 16:52:53 fib1618: as we make our way to the upside price target of $68 and $70 a share
2016-04-21 16:53:20 fib1618: we also see new highs here for the XLE breadth MCSUM pattern sequence as well
2016-04-21 16:53:33 fib1618: so reaching these same targets remain doable for now
2016-04-21 16:54:31 fib1618: the XLF breadth MCO moved up to the +90 level this week
2016-04-21 16:54:48 fib1618: and this has pushed the XLF breadth MCSUM to its highest levels seen since January of 2015
2016-04-21 16:55:15 fib1618: the $24.50 level remains our price target
2016-04-21 16:55:56 fib1618: and then we'll see how much is in the tank when the buyers again attempt to move above the $25 level
2016-04-21 16:56:29 fib1618: the XLV continues to be very strong here
2016-04-21 16:57:03 fib1618: and with the XLV breadth MCSUM now above the highs of November and December now
2016-04-21 16:57:33 fib1618: we can now look for our next price target to around the $76 level
2016-04-21 16:57:46 fib1618: this is an interesting sector right now
2016-04-21 16:57:56 fib1618: given how ACA seems to be falling apart
2016-04-21 16:58:37 fib1618: and maybe the market is looking beyond this and thinking that medical is going to be much more profitable without the strings being pulled by the act
2016-04-21 16:58:46 fib1618: no matter
2016-04-21 16:58:55 fib1618: the trend there is very much to the upside for now
2016-04-21 16:59:00 fib1618: regardless of the reasons
2016-04-21 16:59:31 fib1618: the XLI breadth MCO found resistance near the +50 level this week
2016-04-21 16:59:55 fib1618: and we are now back to the zero line in the blink of an eye
2016-04-21 17:00:21 fib1618: snapback as well in the components are also suggesting a technical bounce here near term
2016-04-21 17:00:40 fib1618: while the XLI breadth MCSUM challenges the +1250 level
2016-04-21 17:00:48 fib1618: remember
2016-04-21 17:00:59 fib1618: the deeper the MCSUM goes in one direction or the other
2016-04-21 17:01:21 fib1618: the harder it is for that side to continue to move even deeper into that extreme area
2016-04-21 17:01:42 fib1618: so if we do see a gap expansion to the upside in the XLI MCSUM above the +1250 near term
2016-04-21 17:02:04 fib1618: this is our cue that there is a large amount of fresh capital that is causing this to take place
2016-04-21 17:02:27 fib1618: and with the XLI so closely related to the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports
2016-04-21 17:02:59 fib1618: this is a great time to watch this sector for any tip off that may give us as an advantage in our allocations before the majority realizes it
2016-04-21 17:03:38 fib1618: the XLB breadth MCO continues to show this idea in practice
2016-04-21 17:03:54 fib1618: as it was able to move to the +92 level
2016-04-21 17:04:25 fib1618: and this was the spark that was needed for the XLB breadth MCSUM to move up and through the +1500 level
2016-04-21 17:04:44 fib1618: Elliott wise though
2016-04-21 17:05:12 fib1618: a cursory view of the price pattern structure does suggest a minimal 5 wave advance now complete
2016-04-21 17:05:16 fib1618: but the good news there
2016-04-21 17:05:33 fib1618: is that we're probably in the middle of an extension
2016-04-21 17:05:46 fib1618: since both the MCO and MCSUM were able to move to higher highs
2016-04-21 17:05:54 fib1618: and this can only happen during 3rd wave sequences
2016-04-21 17:06:22 fib1618: moving to the XLK breadth MCO
2016-04-21 17:06:30 fib1618: and here we continue to meander sideways just below the zero line
2016-04-21 17:07:20 fib1618: and this kind of action translates into compressed individual downside postings in the XLK breadth MCSUM
2016-04-21 17:08:08 fib1618: as it goes through the technical process of relieving its deeply "overbought" condition that was seen into the end of March
2016-04-21 17:08:25 fib1618: so much of what's going on here is corrective in nature
2016-04-21 17:08:36 fib1618: with very little control being seen by the sellers
2016-04-21 17:08:48 fib1618: and this in spite of some nasty reports lately in this sector
2016-04-21 17:08:57 fib1618: evidently then
2016-04-21 17:09:07 fib1618: money is betting that the worse is behind this sector
2016-04-21 17:09:16 fib1618: and that better days are ahead for the 2nd quarter
2016-04-21 17:09:38 fib1618: so kind of an easy one here
2016-04-21 17:09:42 fib1618: buy stop at $45
2016-04-21 17:09:54 fib1618: and we'll see how she runs
2016-04-21 17:10:22 fib1618: and like we saw in the XLP data
2016-04-21 17:10:32 fib1618: the XLU breadth MCO also snapped back to its zero line
2016-04-21 17:10:41 fib1618: and has since broken down to lower lows
2016-04-21 17:11:02 fib1618: as with the XLP breadth MCO
2016-04-21 17:11:29 fib1618: any reflex bounce here near term would suggest a price pattern low for this corrective event
2016-04-21 17:12:17 fib1618: and that any move toward the breakdown area of Wednesday could be a time to lighten up
2016-04-21 17:12:44 fib1618: with solid support coming at the $46 level
2016-04-21 17:13:00 fib1618: like Consumer Staples, let's continue to work with a hold on this one as well
2016-04-21 17:13:03 fib1618: so...
2016-04-21 17:13:28 fib1618: the two defensive sectors that were the backbone of the uptrend have now finally seen some selling here
2016-04-21 17:13:41 fib1618: and this selling seems to be rotating into Energy and Financials
2016-04-21 17:13:49 fib1618: oh...and Materials
2016-04-21 17:14:11 fib1618: money doesn't seem to be leaving the markets as it seems to be rotating
2016-04-21 17:14:23 mojave: 2-day rise in rates = sell utes & put some risk-on... I guess
2016-04-21 17:14:27 fib1618: and that's an important piece of information as we move forward from here
2016-04-21 17:14:32 fib1618: probably
2016-04-21 17:14:37 fib1618: that would make sense
2016-04-21 17:14:54 fib1618: but the patterns from last week suggested that we were likely to see a bit more air taken out anyway
2016-04-21 17:15:01 fib1618: and all that was needed was a trigger
2016-04-21 17:15:16 mojave: Fed next wk, not sure anyone expects much
2016-04-21 17:15:30 fib1618: they are in a corner
2016-04-21 17:15:36 fib1618: they can't raise
2016-04-21 17:15:57 fib1618: not with Europe threatening to show greater accommodation
2016-04-21 17:16:21 fib1618: and it's a Presidential election here
2016-04-21 17:16:26 fib1618: and as we talked about last year
2016-04-21 17:16:49 fib1618: we weren't likely to see any movement beyond the end of 2015
2016-04-21 17:17:39 fib1618: besides...Chairman Yellen is not likely to be around no matter who gets elected
2016-04-21 17:18:00 fib1618: as both of the leading candidates have other people in mind
2016-04-21 17:18:16 fib1618: so better to stand pat and not make any waves
2016-04-21 17:18:51 fib1618: CVI's are now neutral
2016-04-21 17:18:56 fib1618: so one side is about to take control
2016-04-21 17:19:05 fib1618: STVO's remain "overbought"
2016-04-21 17:19:10 fib1618: VTO's continue to unwind
2016-04-21 17:19:37 fib1618: though they do remain elevated...but diverging
2016-04-21 17:20:03 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.25
2016-04-21 17:20:12 fib1618: Open 10 at .95
2016-04-21 17:20:45 fib1618: ideally it would be great to see the NYSE Open 10 move back below the 1.10 level...but 1.00 would be fine
2016-04-21 17:20:59 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .95
2016-04-21 17:21:12 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.04
2016-04-21 17:21:39 fib1618: after bouncing off the 1.09 level
2016-04-21 17:21:54 fib1618: TM TRIN at .99
2016-04-21 17:22:02 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.04
2016-04-21 17:22:09 fib1618: so...
2016-04-21 17:22:16 fib1618: not a lot of selling today
2016-04-21 17:22:23 fib1618: looks more to be a profit taking day
2016-04-21 17:22:53 fib1618: with much of the selling taking place in the area that was more in the "overbought" zone....the mega caps
2016-04-21 17:23:10 fib1618: looks like some of that went into the NASDAQ
2016-04-21 17:23:22 fib1618: so we're pretty well balance near term
2016-04-21 17:23:47 fib1618: with the data indicating that we should have a bounce higher as soon as Friday
2016-04-21 17:24:09 fib1618: as the buyers continue to maintain both short and intermediate term control of the action
2016-04-21 17:24:26 fib1618: for those who came in late...the BETS is up to +40 now
2016-04-21 17:24:46 fib1618: with the NAUD and NYUD about to bring it up to +50 as soon as tomorrow
2016-04-21 17:24:58 fib1618: let me look around a bit
2016-04-21 17:26:09 fib1618: big move in the 10 year note on Wednesday
2016-04-21 17:26:29 fib1618: looks to be about 4%!
2016-04-21 17:26:44 fib1618: that's "huge" (in my best Trump impersonation)
2016-04-21 17:27:40 fib1618: Commodities, as measured by the CRB, continue to move higher
2016-04-21 17:28:02 fib1618: gold continues to move sideways
2016-04-21 17:28:28 fib1618: as does the US Dollar
2016-04-21 17:28:32 fib1618: which is now at 94.60
2016-04-21 17:28:34 fib1618: wow...where we had 3 tests previously in 2015
2016-04-21 17:29:20 fib1618: well...make that 5
2016-04-21 17:29:26 fib1618: so any break down from here
2016-04-21 17:29:44 fib1618: and anything priced in dollars is going to be bought from those outside the US
2016-04-21 17:30:03 fib1618: and we have a Fed meeting next week?
2016-04-21 17:30:14 fib1618: may not see much happening until then
2016-04-21 17:30:31 fib1618: and that's really about it
2016-04-21 17:30:33 fib1618: anything else?
2016-04-21 17:30:42 mojave: not here
2016-04-21 17:31:35 mojave: there are a ton of 'breadth' symbols on SC
2016-04-21 17:31:46 fib1618: yep
2016-04-21 17:31:48 mojave: I'm going thru them, just looking....
2016-04-21 17:32:16 mojave: I may post something in the forum occasionally if I create an interesting 'complimentary' chart...
2016-04-21 17:32:40 fib1618: seems that the area of breadth analysis has become important again in the technical world
2016-04-21 17:32:47 fib1618: please do
2016-04-21 17:33:19 fib1618: I will add comments if they're to be beneficial
2016-04-21 17:33:30 fib1618: keep it simple
2016-04-21 17:33:30 mojave: okey dokey
2016-04-21 17:33:59 fib1618: remember that we're measuring the cumulative flow of capital as it moves in and out of the market
2016-04-21 17:34:28 fib1618: with tools like the McClellan's giving us insight on the trend of this same cumulative total
2016-04-21 17:34:40 fib1618: as the trend of money goes
2016-04-21 17:34:43 fib1618: so does price
2016-04-21 17:34:57 fib1618: so if you see this kind of relationship
2016-04-21 17:35:02 fib1618: play with it
2016-04-21 17:35:25 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-04-21 17:35:30 fib1618: I'm going to call it a week
2016-04-21 17:35:37 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend ahead
2016-04-21 17:35:45 fib1618: and we'll see how things are doing on Tuesday
2016-04-21 17:35:46 fib1618: good night

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Copyright 2000-2020 Technical Watch