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Posts: 5,161
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-04-19 16:00:08 fib1618: good day
2016-04-19 16:00:10 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-04-19 16:02:13 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-04-19 16:04:02 fib1618: let's change it up a bit and get today's BETS reading first
2016-04-19 16:04:39 fib1618: WOW...Canada and ARCA are very strong right now
2016-04-19 16:05:28 fib1618: +35
2016-04-19 16:05:38 fib1618: up 10 from the weekend
2016-04-19 16:06:04 fib1618: need a +45 or better for an "accumulation/bullish bias" reading though
2016-04-19 16:06:19 fib1618: but it's the first time we've been above +30 intraweek
2016-04-19 16:06:34 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-04-19 16:07:25 fib1618: after finding support at the +20 level late last week
2016-04-19 16:07:34 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has now moved to a higher high
2016-04-19 16:07:47 fib1618: settling with a reading today of +45
2016-04-19 16:08:22 fib1618: this now puts the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM within striking distance of moving to a higher high of its own
2016-04-19 16:08:24 fib1618: and with it
2016-04-19 16:08:39 fib1618: a challenge in the all time price highs in the NYA is likely to occur
2016-04-19 16:08:52 fib1618: looking at the price pattern over the last two sessions
2016-04-19 16:09:14 fib1618: and we see the prices have been accelerating to the upside now
2016-04-19 16:09:37 fib1618: while meeting our secondary upside price target of around the 10,500 level today
2016-04-19 16:11:05 fib1618: and we're now up a little over 4% since the price lows of April 7th
2016-04-19 16:11:47 fib1618: with a total gain now of around 15% since the early February lows
2016-04-19 16:12:13 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-04-19 16:12:19 fib1618: and here we also moved to a higher high today
2016-04-19 16:12:56 fib1618: and this has helped the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM to move to new highs of its own during this ongoing sequence
2016-04-19 16:13:42 fib1618: both the NYSE CO and Composite MCO components remain in a bullish configurations
2016-04-19 16:13:53 fib1618: so the path of least resistance remains to the upside for now
2016-04-19 16:14:00 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-04-19 16:14:24 fib1618: and here we're seeing a bit of a challenge in progress
2016-04-19 16:14:34 fib1618: as we have yet taken out last week's high point
2016-04-19 16:15:07 fib1618: NASDAQ MCO components remain elevated
2016-04-19 16:15:21 fib1618: while the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM continues to make its way toward the +500 level with a reading today of +445
2016-04-19 16:16:04 fib1618: more than likely this comparable weakness between the NYSE and NASDAQ is coming with the basket of NDX issues
2016-04-19 16:16:21 fib1618: and moving to that breadth MCO
2016-04-19 16:16:32 fib1618: we see that it failed to move above the +25 level on Monday
2016-04-19 16:17:16 fib1618: but we're now back down to the zero line with a reading of +1
2016-04-19 16:17:21 fib1618: technically then
2016-04-19 16:17:49 fib1618: we should see an obligatory bounce off this same demarcation level between whose in control, the buyers or sellers, as soon as Wednesday
2016-04-19 16:18:24 fib1618: with my sense is suggesting this to be more tech related as the XLK data from last week was showing a lack of vigor
2016-04-19 16:18:35 fib1618: and with continued earnings coming out this week
2016-04-19 16:19:20 fib1618: we're probably seeing these same issues getting taken to the tool shed on worse than expected something or other to air out these same issues
2016-04-19 16:19:48 fib1618: small point positive change in the SPX breadth MCO today
2016-04-19 16:20:02 fib1618: with our secondary upside price target of 2100 now met
2016-04-19 16:20:35 fib1618: the overall action here remains constructive for this index
2016-04-19 16:21:18 fib1618: though a move above the +50 level in any or all breadth MCO's at this stage will be needed for prices to show good performance
2016-04-19 16:21:39 fib1618: speaking of which
2016-04-19 16:21:52 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO was able to move to the +62 level today
2016-04-19 16:22:17 fib1618: and this allowed the OEX breadth MCSUM to move not only to higher highs
2016-04-19 16:22:39 fib1618: but we are now challenging the more important highs seen back in November of last year
2016-04-19 16:22:49 fib1618: any break then above these levels
2016-04-19 16:22:59 fib1618: will allow prices to challenge their all time highs
2016-04-19 16:23:38 fib1618: which is near the 948 level
2016-04-19 16:24:18 fib1618: or 1.60% from today's closing level of 933
2016-04-19 16:24:50 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO continues to move higher
2016-04-19 16:25:05 fib1618: coming in today with a +65 reading
2016-04-19 16:25:46 fib1618: and this extra energy was able to push the Dow breadth MCSUM above the +1000 level
2016-04-19 16:26:01 fib1618: so a challenge of the all time price highs is probable here as well
2016-04-19 16:26:32 fib1618: which is are about 18,350
2016-04-19 16:26:47 fib1618: or about 300 points from current levels
2016-04-19 16:26:57 fib1618: (knock, knock)
2016-04-19 16:27:23 fib1618: after moving above the end March highs on Monday
2016-04-19 16:27:39 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO came in today with a small point change
2016-04-19 16:27:54 fib1618: so we had an indecision day internally
2016-04-19 16:28:09 fib1618: and as we can see with today's price bar
2016-04-19 16:28:15 fib1618: this created a mid range close
2016-04-19 16:28:32 fib1618: and this would suggest a down close on Wednesday
2016-04-19 16:28:47 fib1618: note also how we were not able to hold above the fall highs today
2016-04-19 16:29:08 fib1618: as it's going to take that much more conviction by the buyers to make this happen
2016-04-19 16:29:51 fib1618: pretty much the same situation today with the SML breadth MCO
2016-04-19 16:30:00 fib1618: with a small point change here as well
2016-04-19 16:30:08 fib1618: and a mid range price bar on the daily chart
2016-04-19 16:31:01 fib1618: we also see that the secondary upside targets for the SML has also now been met
2016-04-19 16:31:28 fib1618: so it's now up to bulls to bring in enough fresh buying to overcome the fall price highs
2016-04-19 16:32:05 fib1618: and where a move above the MCSUM highs of earlier this month would be needed in order for this to be accomplished
2016-04-19 16:32:39 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO just barely moved above last week's highs today
2016-04-19 16:32:43 fib1618: with a small point change
2016-04-19 16:32:53 fib1618: so not a whole lot of conviction overall
2016-04-19 16:33:32 fib1618: and this could cause a day or so of back and fill as the buyers regroup to what should be another attempt to move to higher highs later this week
2016-04-19 16:33:34 fib1618: so...
2016-04-19 16:33:44 fib1618: things continue to favor the buyers at this time
2016-04-19 16:35:21 fib1618: with a near term pause likely to occur before another attempt to break above various price pattern resistance points
2016-04-19 16:37:33 fib1618: OK...moving to the volume McClellan's
2016-04-19 16:38:44 fib1618: and we see that both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's continue to show good leadership strength to the upside right now
2016-04-19 16:39:01 fib1618: and why prices are able to accelerate higher in the NYA index itself
2016-04-19 16:39:13 fib1618: both having a reading at +58
2016-04-19 16:39:41 fib1618: we also have upside breakouts in the NYSE volume MCSUM's as well
2016-04-19 16:39:55 fib1618: so the path of least resistance is still strong with the bulls
2016-04-19 16:40:15 fib1618: but then we get to the NASDAQ volume MCO
2016-04-19 16:40:28 fib1618: and we see that it's basically going nowhere right now
2016-04-19 16:40:37 fib1618: coming in with a +3 reading today
2016-04-19 16:41:08 fib1618: and showing, once again, that those issues that do not provide a dividend are being shun right now
2016-04-19 16:41:18 fib1618: in fact
2016-04-19 16:41:29 fib1618: the NDX volume MCO is showing a bearish pattern sequence right now
2016-04-19 16:41:36 fib1618: of moving below the zero line last week
2016-04-19 16:41:42 fib1618: snapping back to the zero line on Monday
2016-04-19 16:41:46 fib1618: and moving to a lower low today
2016-04-19 16:42:13 fib1618: this is going to weigh down the majors a bit
2016-04-19 16:42:36 fib1618: but only those indices where there is a high weighting in NDX related issues
2016-04-19 16:43:28 fib1618: while being offset by the recent strength in the Energy and Financial issues
2016-04-19 16:43:36 fib1618: quite a bit of cross currents here to be sure
2016-04-19 16:43:44 fib1618: moving to the SPX volume MCO
2016-04-19 16:44:10 fib1618: and we see that it finished today at the +49 level
2016-04-19 16:44:40 fib1618: but really needs to show a reading above +50 to have any real chance of seeing the all time highs challenge in the SPX itself
2016-04-19 16:45:02 fib1618: SPX volume MCSUM though is leading its breadth cousin to the upside
2016-04-19 16:45:12 fib1618: so the path of money flow is strongest with the buyers
2016-04-19 16:45:42 fib1618: the OEX volume MCO also moved to a reading of +65 today
2016-04-19 16:45:56 fib1618: as we're now starting to see a pick up in the "cream" stocks
2016-04-19 16:46:22 fib1618: with the OEX volume MCSUM now challenging the +750 level
2016-04-19 16:46:41 fib1618: so an important couple of days coming up for this index
2016-04-19 16:47:30 fib1618: the Dow volume MCO seems to be on the lethargic side right now compared to breadth
2016-04-19 16:47:45 fib1618: but we're still holding in and around the +50 level
2016-04-19 16:48:19 fib1618: with any further positive buying plurality clearing the way for a test of the all time price highs in the Dow itself
2016-04-19 16:48:44 fib1618: watch the Dow volume MCSUM as to any tip off of such an event taking place
2016-04-19 16:49:17 fib1618: we see that we have a bit of a problem with the MID volume MCO
2016-04-19 16:49:32 fib1618: as it's still attempting to move above last week's highs at the +25 level
2016-04-19 16:49:51 fib1618: this kind of weakness will allow "accidents to happen" near term
2016-04-19 16:50:06 fib1618: so it will be up to the buyers to show a bit more backbone here
2016-04-19 16:50:35 fib1618: or we're likely consolidate between the 1460 and 1480 levels
2016-04-19 16:51:00 fib1618: but then we see the SML volume MCO is showing a bit more vigor currently
2016-04-19 16:51:02 fib1618: and with this
2016-04-19 16:51:23 fib1618: the SML volume MCSUM has been able to move to new reaction highs today
2016-04-19 16:51:58 fib1618: so, in essence, the small caps have become the litmus test for the secondary market that makes up the NASDAQ
2016-04-19 16:52:08 fib1618: as it should that marketplace
2016-04-19 16:52:40 fib1618: and finally we had a small point change in the TM volume MCO today
2016-04-19 16:53:13 fib1618: as it's having a tough time finding other buyers to step up to the bar right now
2016-04-19 16:53:28 fib1618: and without this strength that's needed
2016-04-19 16:54:08 fib1618: prices are likely to take a pause here near term and regroup in an attempt to move further on in the current sequence later on
2016-04-19 16:54:10 fib1618: so...
2016-04-19 16:54:19 fib1618: the path of least resistance remains higher
2016-04-19 16:54:50 fib1618: but we're getting signs of either exhaustion or just plain old indecision on the best course to take
2016-04-19 16:55:09 fib1618: money continues to move into interest rate sensitive issues
2016-04-19 16:55:24 fib1618: and into other areas that continue to provide a return on captial (dividends and such)
2016-04-19 16:56:03 fib1618: growth stocks in the NASDAQ remain rather tepid for now
2016-04-19 16:56:23 fib1618: but we'll keep a watchful eye on the NDX basket of issues
2016-04-19 16:56:48 fib1618: since there are some heavy hitters in there that can weigh down most of the majors
2016-04-19 16:57:44 fib1618: CVI's are getting a bit overdone here
2016-04-19 16:57:56 fib1618: but nothing one would call "climactic"
2016-04-19 16:58:09 fib1618: STVO's though are "overbought" again
2016-04-19 16:58:14 fib1618: except for the NDX
2016-04-19 16:58:32 fib1618: which continues to show decay
2016-04-19 16:58:57 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .60
2016-04-19 16:59:02 fib1618: so some short covering there today
2016-04-19 16:59:11 fib1618: Open 10 at .95
2016-04-19 16:59:28 fib1618: so not too bad
2016-04-19 16:59:45 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.45
2016-04-19 16:59:56 fib1618: and looks like the index was weak all day today
2016-04-19 17:00:13 fib1618: but the Open 10 is now at 1.07
2016-04-19 17:00:29 fib1618: so we're getting close to being technically "oversold" there
2016-04-19 17:00:39 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.28
2016-04-19 17:00:48 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.07
2016-04-19 17:00:52 fib1618: so...
2016-04-19 17:01:05 fib1618: buying seems to be much more buoyant in the large caps
2016-04-19 17:01:40 fib1618: while the secondaries are helping the broad market to move into "oversold" territory
2016-04-19 17:01:57 fib1618: which is intermediate term bullish since the market isn't running too hot here in spite of challenging the highs of last fall
2016-04-19 17:02:19 fib1618: and the all time highs just above that
2016-04-19 17:02:27 fib1618: as mentioned earlier
2016-04-19 17:02:34 fib1618: the BETS today came in with a +35
2016-04-19 17:02:51 fib1618: so while things look to be extended
2016-04-19 17:02:57 fib1618: underneath it all
2016-04-19 17:03:21 fib1618: we continue to show constructive foundation supporting the current advancing price sequences
2016-04-19 17:03:27 fib1618: and as long as this continues
2016-04-19 17:03:43 fib1618: the path of least resistance remains higher until PROVEN otherwise
2016-04-19 17:03:54 fib1618: and even if we do top out here in the MCSUM's
2016-04-19 17:04:22 fib1618: it's going to take several weeks before prices will be able to show any kind of trending sequences to the downside
2016-04-19 17:04:48 fib1618: so we'll call the current advance as likely to continue into early May
2016-04-19 17:05:07 fib1618: and take our cues accordingly as they are made available
2016-04-19 17:05:11 fib1618: anything else?
2016-04-19 17:05:50 fib1618: we also continue to make new all time highs in the NYAD line
2016-04-19 17:05:59 fib1618: and as we have seen in the past so many times before
2016-04-19 17:06:07 fib1618: until we see the NYAD line diverge with prices
2016-04-19 17:06:22 fib1618: the worse that will happen is a consolidation in prices
2016-04-19 17:06:41 fib1618: by ways of either a trading range or triangle
2016-04-19 17:07:24 fib1618: anyway, the problem with strong trends like this is that until we start seeing cracks in the armor
2016-04-19 17:07:40 fib1618: there tends not to be too much to talk about that we haven't already gone over
2016-04-19 17:07:55 fib1618: so any questions here are always encouraged
2016-04-19 17:08:55 fib1618: and, hopefully, everyone is doing well in their trading
2016-04-19 17:09:31 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-04-19 17:09:35 fib1618: I'm going to call it a day
2016-04-19 17:09:41 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2016-04-19 17:09:46 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Thursday
2016-04-19 17:09:48 fib1618: good night

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