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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-04-19 16:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-04-19 16:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-04-19 16:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: busy day here...
2011-04-19 16:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (hope it continues)
2011-04-19 16:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-04-19 16:02:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: glad you are busy!
2011-04-19 16:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me too
2011-04-19 16:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sad thing is we are probably one of the last 5 or 6 in the country now who does what we do
2011-04-19 16:02:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2011-04-19 16:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my major competitor closed their doors on Friday
2011-04-19 16:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...hopefully...we'll see
2011-04-19 16:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get a drink...and we'll get started...one moment
2011-04-19 16:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: vodka martini...straight up and dry
2011-04-19 16:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nah...just joshing
2011-04-19 16:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...here we go
2011-04-19 16:05:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after pulling up short on yesterday's down day, the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved a bit higher today
2011-04-19 16:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has left us with the potential of some sloppy bull divergence
2011-04-19 16:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also diverged yesterday with the 10% index
2011-04-19 16:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might have had our final shake out before moving to new recovery highs in the NYA
2011-04-19 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...we have a bit more work to do before we can say this with conviction
2011-04-19 16:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but whenever you get a news related items pushing down prices
2011-04-19 16:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and divergence is created
2011-04-19 16:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more than likely a nice buy point in the pattern
2011-04-19 16:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the longer term trend remains to the upside
2011-04-19 16:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have the potential of bullish divergence with the NYSE breadth MCO
2011-04-19 16:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the same kind of divergent interplay noted with the 10% component
2011-04-19 16:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today we finished our obligatory snapback to the zero line for this same component
2011-04-19 16:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so either we will resume to sell off here and blow out this near term divergence
2011-04-19 16:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we should move sharply higher as the 10% moves back into positive territory
2011-04-19 16:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have an inside range day today on the NYA which suggests an up close on Wednesday
2011-04-19 16:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a better looking divergent structure with NASDAQ breadth MCO
2011-04-19 16:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM just below its zero line
2011-04-19 16:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be that we've created some sort of wash out with yesterdays sharp decline
2011-04-19 16:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still, overall, we continue to remain within the context of an intermediate term consolidation
2011-04-19 16:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until we get more information in the way of a potential change in this sideways trend, we should continue to play with oscillator "overbought" and "oversold" readings
2011-04-19 16:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2011-04-19 16:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continue to play any shorts as hit and run affairs until we see more of the breadth MCSUM's move closer to their zero lines
2011-04-19 16:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did Apple build on its hammer stick from yesterday today?
2011-04-19 16:14:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh yea
2011-04-19 16:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how much?
2011-04-19 16:14:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 6 bucks
2011-04-19 16:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh boy
2011-04-19 16:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and IBM and Intel...how were their earnings?
2011-04-19 16:14:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good
2011-04-19 16:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good enough to rally ?
2011-04-19 16:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look...one sec
2011-04-19 16:15:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Intel up a buck
2011-04-19 16:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lintel up 5%
2011-04-19 16:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IBM down 2%
2011-04-19 16:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much a wash
2011-04-19 16:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though IBM carries a lot of Dow weight
2011-04-19 16:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes tomorrow
2011-04-19 16:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small bounce higher with the NDX breadth MCO
2011-04-19 16:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when we look at the NDX breadth MCSUM
2011-04-19 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note that the separation of the recent postings are mighty congested
2011-04-19 16:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that the bears have no conviction here
2011-04-19 16:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it might be a tip off potential market strength and to AAPL earnings tomorrow
2011-04-19 16:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh yea...this is certainly not an index you want to short here
2011-04-19 16:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCO and its components continue to suggest corrective activity
2011-04-19 16:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that a hammer stick on the NDX from yesterday?
2011-04-19 16:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't speak Japanese...does the body have to move within the previous days body to be a hammer?
2011-04-19 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well...we'll just call it a reversal
2011-04-19 16:20:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not sure, sorry
2011-04-19 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's OK
2011-04-19 16:21:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sticks have always been a struggle for me, so I stay away
2011-04-19 16:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many interpretations
2011-04-19 16:21:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm soso on them, as well
2011-04-19 16:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me a bar chart and I tell you anything you want
2011-04-19 16:22:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that's what I use too
2011-04-19 16:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO looks very much like the NYA data
2011-04-19 16:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much lock step there
2011-04-19 16:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we come to the area that got the biggest hit yesterday...the OEX and Dow stocks
2011-04-19 16:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which kinda of makes sense given the news that accompanied yesterday's trading
2011-04-19 16:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but technically speaking
2011-04-19 16:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would want to see all of the indices moving in lock step here
2011-04-19 16:24:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so just by the very fact that the OEX and Dow breadth MCO's moved to lower lows yesterday
2011-04-19 16:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably going to need a little more time before we'll see anything significant to the upside
2011-04-19 16:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2011-04-19 16:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the broader market diverging right now
2011-04-19 16:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the cream stocks continue to lag
2011-04-19 16:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's likely not going to be too much downside here neither
2011-04-19 16:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...the best forecast is for chop
2011-04-19 16:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do notice, however, the downside congestion of both the OEX and Dow breadth MCSUM's here
2011-04-19 16:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest that the bears really have very little in the way ammunition right now
2011-04-19 16:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's lack of being able to move to lower lows after lunch is a great example of the bears having very little in the way of bull bullets at their disposal
2011-04-19 16:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be duly noted
2011-04-19 16:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that once again we see a great example that when the broader market MCSUM's are as high as they are
2011-04-19 16:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and especially when they're at or above the +500 level
2011-04-19 16:28:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's extremely difficult for the bears to muster up any kind of downside advance
2011-04-19 16:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see sloppy divergence with the MID breadth MCO data
2011-04-19 16:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing just a whole lack of sellers here
2011-04-19 16:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2011-04-19 16:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the SML and MID price chart for a moment
2011-04-19 16:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we continue to maintain here is a simple snapback to what was the previous highs made in February
2011-04-19 16:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if with this same divergence in the MCO's hold
2011-04-19 16:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls may now be ready to flex their collective muscles here
2011-04-19 16:31:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: there is a fair amount of summations under 500, as well-don't care much for that
2011-04-19 16:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...but you're spoiled
2011-04-19 16:32:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I guess. lol
2011-04-19 16:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main areas in which one would be concerned in this context is when and if the MCSUM readings move below the zero line
2011-04-19 16:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even then
2011-04-19 16:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when in advancing price structures
2011-04-19 16:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only with a decisive break of the -250 level is where price decay really can take place
2011-04-19 16:33:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good point
2011-04-19 16:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM as an example
2011-04-19 16:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it did find bull market support EXACTLY at the -250 level and the pattern promptly rallied off the Japan/Vegas lows
2011-04-19 16:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for the bears to be successful in taking out these same lows in price
2011-04-19 16:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM MUST move below these same lows
2011-04-19 16:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it doesn't, it has no chance of doing so
2011-04-19 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so everything here is relative
2011-04-19 16:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2011-04-19 16:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that we're working with oscillators
2011-04-19 16:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snf since we are...let me ask you...which oscillator do you like to use the most?
2011-04-19 16:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: RSI?
2011-04-19 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MACD?
2011-04-19 16:37:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: don't care for any much while trending LOL
2011-04-19 16:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...which one...I want to make a point
2011-04-19 16:38:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm using Bollinger band deviation
2011-04-19 16:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me an oscillator....please....
2011-04-19 16:39:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well then, RSI
2011-04-19 16:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-04-19 16:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the RSI has 3 levels we look at to determine strength....30%, 50% and 70% ....right?
2011-04-19 16:40:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-04-19 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 30% is "oversold"
2011-04-19 16:40:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 50% is neutral
2011-04-19 16:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 70% is "overbought"
2011-04-19 16:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-04-19 16:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's say with the MCSUM...the zero line is 50%
2011-04-19 16:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with +500 being 70% and -500 being 30%
2011-04-19 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-04-19 16:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the RSI reading is above 70% for a while, and then moves below it, but remains above the 50% line, would you be concerned about what it's measuring?
2011-04-19 16:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the point here
2011-04-19 16:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that just because the +500 levels may be breached to the downside
2011-04-19 16:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all "overbought" reading will eventually become not nearly so over time
2011-04-19 16:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only when this same information moves from positive to negative is only when we should be concerned
2011-04-19 16:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many times have you seen "overbought" RSI readings move back to 50%
2011-04-19 16:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even 40%
2011-04-19 16:43:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and find support and then move back to the upside?
2011-04-19 16:43:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: plenty
2011-04-19 16:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the answer...yes...plenty
2011-04-19 16:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the same thing here
2011-04-19 16:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is allowed to rest
2011-04-19 16:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when it moves to extremes, it will always find a way to relieve these same excesses
2011-04-19 16:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we then have to figure out is when the higher probability that this time will not be the time in which we'll see likely support from these same "pause to refresh" points in the ongoing pattern
2011-04-19 16:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we've been above the zero line for many months now, one would think that we're in need of a more longer lasting time below the 50% line
2011-04-19 16:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until the market agrees with your assessment
2011-04-19 16:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you must play the technical cards correctly...that is...until proven otherwise
2011-04-19 16:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...observe, respect, but keep anything you see in proper context
2011-04-19 16:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise you might short change yourself
2011-04-19 16:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at yesterday
2011-04-19 16:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck...look at last month
2011-04-19 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had the expectation that with such a sharp decline that it would be likely that we would see some intermediate term divergence with the March lows before we would be able to resume the uptrend
2011-04-19 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then we continue to get more strength than what was expected on the bounce
2011-04-19 16:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we had to change our blueprint because of this
2011-04-19 16:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had the plan that with any test of the March lows
2011-04-19 16:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't necessarily be because of what got us there...Japan and the Middle East...it would more than likely be something economically based
2011-04-19 16:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would guess that having US debt on credit watch would come within this area of analysis
2011-04-19 16:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-04-19 16:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we didn't move to higher highs on the MCO in late March
2011-04-19 16:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can be very sure that yesterday's announcement would had had a greater weight on the averages
2011-04-19 16:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since there was more money than was anticipated that came rushing back in last month
2011-04-19 16:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this helped cushion the blow
2011-04-19 16:51:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now...we have the potential of bull divergence
2011-04-19 16:51:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Elliott wise...if we hold this divergence...a small wave 2 was complete yesterday
2011-04-19 16:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that 2nd waves have all of the excitement of the actual extremes in price (in this case the March lows) but at far higher levels in price
2011-04-19 16:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we really did meet that criteria yesterday
2011-04-19 16:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our only problem though
2011-04-19 16:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is with the OEX and Dow breadth MCO's
2011-04-19 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again...they are only a handful of stocks
2011-04-19 16:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2011-04-19 16:53:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and NAZ?
2011-04-19 16:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're not all from one exchange
2011-04-19 16:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the secondaries?
2011-04-19 16:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (stress secondaries)
2011-04-19 16:53:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: under zero, all the way around
2011-04-19 16:53:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so?
2011-04-19 16:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but how much below?
2011-04-19 16:54:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: past the -250 level?
2011-04-19 16:54:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: adding to your handful-just saying
2011-04-19 16:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh
2011-04-19 16:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-04-19 16:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because I just looked at the NASDAQ volume MCSUM and we're still above the zero line there
2011-04-19 16:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's so important to remain focused on the technical condition of the markets over that of fundamental news
2011-04-19 16:55:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without knowing the health of these same internals, you pretty can shoot yourself in the foot without too much of a problem
2011-04-19 16:55:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at how so many folks turned bearish yesterday
2011-04-19 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooooo many
2011-04-19 16:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are only 2 or 3% from the recent highs?
2011-04-19 16:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we couldn't see lower lows?
2011-04-19 16:56:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm not beared up=but not bulled up either-it looks like chop
2011-04-19 16:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we may not have a lot of power from the tired bulls
2011-04-19 16:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we certainly not seeing any kind of strength from the bears either
2011-04-19 16:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's fine
2011-04-19 16:57:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: or bulls
2011-04-19 16:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my comments are always broadly based
2011-04-19 16:57:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I wanted to sooth your nervousness with the MCSUM's
2011-04-19 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep it in perspective
2011-04-19 16:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: try not to read into something which isn't there
2011-04-19 16:58:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks-you know I never, and still don't care for the NDX MCSUM
2011-04-19 16:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's fine
2011-04-19 16:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: granted
2011-04-19 16:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for the bears
2011-04-19 16:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's theirs to build on
2011-04-19 16:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they're not
2011-04-19 16:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything
2011-04-19 16:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls are getting more and more strength from this the longer the bears don't take the reigns
2011-04-19 16:59:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-04-19 16:59:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're dealing with a buyer and seller
2011-04-19 16:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there's less and less sellers
2011-04-19 16:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then ANY buying is going to move prices higher without any kind of defense
2011-04-19 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the distance of the individual MCSUM postings are important in this context
2011-04-19 17:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the most important thing here
2011-04-19 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to the point of paramount
2011-04-19 17:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we can't allow negative fundamental analysis sway us from our actual technical conditions of the market
2011-04-19 17:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be sure
2011-04-19 17:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the fundamentals will ALWAYS be negative
2011-04-19 17:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: period
2011-04-19 17:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but these same negative fundamentals don't mean anything until there has been enough negative liquidity to push prices in this same direction
2011-04-19 17:02:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just feels like a rounding top to me, hard for me to read more into it, but you are a help
2011-04-19 17:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until this is accomplished
2011-04-19 17:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then every single negative piece of news is to be used as a buying opportunity of wholesale pricing
2011-04-19 17:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like a round top
2011-04-19 17:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no debate on that
2011-04-19 17:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember how we left last week
2011-04-19 17:03:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I had absolutely no clue on which way we would sort out by today
2011-04-19 17:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market was so indecisive that it gave no indication of its intentions
2011-04-19 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until yesterday, we just chopped, didn't we?
2011-04-19 17:04:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-04-19 17:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN it took a news event, 30 minutes before the open, to "move" ourselves out of this congestion
2011-04-19 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at today
2011-04-19 17:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're right back at this same consolidation with little to show for the bears
2011-04-19 17:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THAT is bullish
2011-04-19 17:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THAT highly suggests that once there is bullish news
2011-04-19 17:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the market will have a far easier time moving higher than it would lower
2011-04-19 17:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will do so on less in the way of news to drive it
2011-04-19 17:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another way to look at it
2011-04-19 17:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a "trend" doesn't need any news to support its direction
2011-04-19 17:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "news" itself will only be known once the trend is close to completion
2011-04-19 17:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when you hear something positive or negative that drives prices
2011-04-19 17:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can be sure that it's an opportunity to climb on the prevailing trend at better price levels
2011-04-19 17:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: long or short, it doesn't matter
2011-04-19 17:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we've had great examples of this over the last 2 months, haven't we?
2011-04-19 17:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...let's move on
2011-04-19 17:07:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: makes for great trading
2011-04-19 17:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...and we KNEW in early March that we were likely to trade sideways and didn't have anything fundamental to help us to determine this, did we?
2011-04-19 17:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how did we know this??
2011-04-19 17:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone?
2011-04-19 17:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll take either of the two answers
2011-04-19 17:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm waiting until I see someone respond
2011-04-19 17:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (because you all know the answer)
2011-04-19 17:10:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: we weren't in sync
2011-04-19 17:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how so?
2011-04-19 17:10:22 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: MCSUM above zero. MCO below
2011-04-19 17:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's one answer...and the other?
2011-04-19 17:10:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 5's and 10s, as well
2011-04-19 17:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go
2011-04-19 17:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the component divergences were of short term nature
2011-04-19 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the divergences between the MCO's and the MCSUM's were you intermediate term indicators of a larger sideways pattern would develop
2011-04-19 17:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you didn't need to have CNBC, or any of their interviewees, tell you this, did they?
2011-04-19 17:12:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope, they are clueless
2011-04-19 17:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because you know that when the market is out of sync internally, the odds are pretty high that since breadth leads price, prices were going to mimic this same indecision
2011-04-19 17:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sounds simple
2011-04-19 17:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to a point...it is
2011-04-19 17:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's nothing you'll learn by watching and listening to others
2011-04-19 17:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you just have to have faith in your indicators
2011-04-19 17:14:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, the guys at tt did give a buy signal, LOL
2011-04-19 17:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all there is to it
2011-04-19 17:14:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which ones?
2011-04-19 17:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the guys...which signals?
2011-04-19 17:14:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the beared up ones
2011-04-19 17:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very true
2011-04-19 17:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-04-19 17:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there were several who all of sudden came out of their caves yesterday and today
2011-04-19 17:15:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure were=BIG predictions, as well
2011-04-19 17:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all one has to do is to then look at the other times they made these same appearances and it becomes pretty clear
2011-04-19 17:15:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet
2011-04-19 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because...they all were using a news drive event to back up their bias
2011-04-19 17:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are not technicians
2011-04-19 17:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or if they are
2011-04-19 17:16:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: they use fundamentals far too much too
2011-04-19 17:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they allow their bias or emotions FIT their analysis
2011-04-19 17:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they forget that the market doesn't care
2011-04-19 17:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even worse
2011-04-19 17:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have absolutely no respect for the market
2011-04-19 17:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: none
2011-04-19 17:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero
2011-04-19 17:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nada
2011-04-19 17:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can't do this because of that
2011-04-19 17:17:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: useful tools in themselves, I can't complain, LOL
2011-04-19 17:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been the same story for as long as I've been doing this
2011-04-19 17:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be honest
2011-04-19 17:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was just like them at one time myself
2011-04-19 17:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all have
2011-04-19 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing to be ashamed of
2011-04-19 17:17:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I know I was
2011-04-19 17:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can I be candid?
2011-04-19 17:18:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2011-04-19 17:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you still are
2011-04-19 17:18:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no prob, get paid well for it now
2011-04-19 17:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-04-19 17:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...I know...just remember me when you're sharing those free passes to your island get away!
2011-04-19 17:19:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I may pontificate-but it is not indicative of my trading
2011-04-19 17:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-04-19 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2011-04-19 17:19:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: two separate items, LOL
2011-04-19 17:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move to the sectors
2011-04-19 17:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolute neutral short term for the XLY
2011-04-19 17:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM pattern remains a trading range
2011-04-19 17:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice the continued congestion of the MCSUM as well
2011-04-19 17:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will then increase the odds that both the longer term trend is higher
2011-04-19 17:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as
2011-04-19 17:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we do move higher, it should be rather robust given this same congestion
2011-04-19 17:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at it another way
2011-04-19 17:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the current price action we see here is that of a base and NOT a top
2011-04-19 17:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check the components
2011-04-19 17:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can't find a way to move below zero
2011-04-19 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just biding its time
2011-04-19 17:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waiting for clarity
2011-04-19 17:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have nothing here
2011-04-19 17:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could change
2011-04-19 17:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it hasn't
2011-04-19 17:23:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the longer they can't wrestle the trend away
2011-04-19 17:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the stronger the eventual breakout will be
2011-04-19 17:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as everyone will be running through the same revolving door
2011-04-19 17:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, in essence, this is a low risk accumulation point
2011-04-19 17:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a 2 point stop below the 37 level
2011-04-19 17:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much risk there
2011-04-19 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the potential could be very rewarding
2011-04-19 17:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while traders decide
2011-04-19 17:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they continue to move into the staples
2011-04-19 17:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty strong support there with the data doing all the talking
2011-04-19 17:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE is now running out of time to move lower here
2011-04-19 17:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLE breadth MCSUM starts to slow at the +250 level
2011-04-19 17:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the gap above, it could fill this gap just as quickly as it made it
2011-04-19 17:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott wise
2011-04-19 17:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is a fourth wave, it really needs to move down NOW otherwise it will turn out to be a simple A-B-C
2011-04-19 17:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting how all of this seems to be coming together here for a move higher
2011-04-19 17:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF data is now the weakest link here
2011-04-19 17:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the XLF breadth MCSUM close to its zero line
2011-04-19 17:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls might be able to take near term control of the action
2011-04-19 17:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the XLF breadth MCO is as "oversold" as it is
2011-04-19 17:29:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: those postings aren't narrowing, though?
2011-04-19 17:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not yet
2011-04-19 17:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could had been climactic yesterday
2011-04-19 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will need a little time to build some texture here
2011-04-19 17:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the meantime
2011-04-19 17:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are other areas worth moving into
2011-04-19 17:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCSUM looks to be building a base at the +750 level
2011-04-19 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would fit into the defensive nature of the current market
2011-04-19 17:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCSUM remains above its +500 level
2011-04-19 17:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that we talked about this last week as being important for the bulls in order to maintain their price structure
2011-04-19 17:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term divergent low in place with the XLB breadth MCO
2011-04-19 17:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to watch that
2011-04-19 17:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now building bull divergence with the XLK (tech)
2011-04-19 17:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLK breadth MCSUM now close to being neutral
2011-04-19 17:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we're neutral, one side can take control
2011-04-19 17:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the utilities remain locked in an indecision pattern
2011-04-19 17:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember, they offer a great return while you wait for a resolution to this same sideways action
2011-04-19 17:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-04-19 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that, once again, the bears have failed to show any kind of conviction or follow through
2011-04-19 17:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain pretty much in control right now
2011-04-19 17:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if there's going to be any near term surprises, it will likely be to the upside
2011-04-19 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a quick look at the volume McClellan's
2011-04-19 17:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO data remains negative
2011-04-19 17:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we had an "oversold" reading yesterday
2011-04-19 17:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE composite data remains neutral overall (sideways)
2011-04-19 17:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ remains negative short term, but you can see the lack of selling conviction of the last week or so in the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2011-04-19 17:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same with the NDX data
2011-04-19 17:40:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: are they supporting the move up?
2011-04-19 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bears better pick up their selling here, or we could see a really big move to the upside on the NDX volume MCSUM
2011-04-19 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not yet
2011-04-19 17:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly
2011-04-19 17:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are not supporting a move lower either
2011-04-19 17:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given that we've taken 5 months to go from "overbought" to just below zero doesn't suggest that the bears are going to have something from "right field" move things any worse
2011-04-19 17:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...think of the RSI
2011-04-19 17:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it going from, let's say, the 85% level
2011-04-19 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we have to show after correcting those excesses is a number just below neutral (50%)?
2011-04-19 17:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no hint of acceleration?
2011-04-19 17:43:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just don't care for volume not leading or even confirming price
2011-04-19 17:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all context
2011-04-19 17:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at it this way
2011-04-19 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth of market tells you how much money there is to invest "IF" it decides to do so
2011-04-19 17:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume takes this same investment quotient and puts it into work
2011-04-19 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as long as there remains high levels of liquidity holding prices buoyant
2011-04-19 17:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once it decides to move in the same direction of this buoyancy
2011-04-19 17:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THEN you will see your prices advance
2011-04-19 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it decides to stand aside, however, you get sideways action
2011-04-19 17:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a ball would while floating on the surface of a body of water
2011-04-19 17:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we have the fuel to move higher
2011-04-19 17:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need is the trigger to light this same fuel
2011-04-19 17:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the volume MCSUM's remain congested
2011-04-19 17:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is bullish
2011-04-19 17:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they start to expand to the downside
2011-04-19 17:46:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will then take this same liquidity reserve with it
2011-04-19 17:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that...prices will then begin to follow
2011-04-19 17:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at March
2011-04-19 17:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great example of this concept
2011-04-19 17:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once this volume dried up
2011-04-19 17:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whoosh...up the ball went back to the surface
2011-04-19 17:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the same vigor that we saw when we had to literally push this same ball below the water line
2011-04-19 17:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so don't get too hyped up with this volume situation
2011-04-19 17:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's there
2011-04-19 17:48:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's to be respected
2011-04-19 17:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until the bears perform...it's just pause
2011-04-19 17:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can anticipate what might happen
2011-04-19 17:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until the breadth MCSUM's move below their zero lines
2011-04-19 17:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this same anticipation is not likely to become reality
2011-04-19 17:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't say anything more than what the market has done over the last two to four months to drive this point home
2011-04-19 17:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has been consistent to this idea
2011-04-19 17:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what's important
2011-04-19 17:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: frankly
2011-04-19 17:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears are in real trouble here
2011-04-19 17:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all of the terrible news of the last two months
2011-04-19 17:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they STILL can't show a top beneath a top in the major averages?
2011-04-19 17:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile...we have relieved our "overbought" conditions with the volume data
2011-04-19 17:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unfortunately, with the FED still pushing down on the accelerator pedal to the floor, we haven't been able to relieve this same "overbought" condition
2011-04-19 17:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, we start to see great post acceleration to the downside
2011-04-19 17:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can be more concerned
2011-04-19 17:52:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as it's been for several weeks now
2011-04-19 17:53:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we acknowledge this...but it's not tradable
2011-04-19 17:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...moving to the OEX volume MCSUM
2011-04-19 17:54:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you have a potential problem
2011-04-19 17:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more so than the NDX
2011-04-19 17:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we've talked about
2011-04-19 17:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could be part of the multinational angle with respect to Japan and oil too
2011-04-19 17:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know really
2011-04-19 17:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's plausible
2011-04-19 17:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then you look at the SML volume data...hard to be bearish there
2011-04-19 17:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's all relative
2011-04-19 17:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and context is important
2011-04-19 17:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now dead neutral
2011-04-19 17:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so are the STVO's and VTO's
2011-04-19 17:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're approaching an important period
2011-04-19 17:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are building compression
2011-04-19 17:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once released, it should be worth several hundred Dow points once its released
2011-04-19 17:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .84
2011-04-19 17:58:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be noted that the TRIN on Monday was over 2.00 giving us a buy signal
2011-04-19 17:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.00
2011-04-19 17:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally "oversold"
2011-04-19 17:58:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .71
2011-04-19 17:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2011-04-19 17:59:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .86
2011-04-19 17:59:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92
2011-04-19 17:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2011-04-19 17:59:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-04-19 18:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still not in the greatest position for a tradable bottom
2011-04-19 18:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but every day that passes any chance of continued price decay lessens as well
2011-04-19 18:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...the bulls continue to hold the crystal ball here...it's theirs to lose
2011-04-19 18:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-04-19 18:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW...we're back to usual schedule now...next chat is Thursday
2011-04-19 18:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I guess we'll close then
2011-04-19 18:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-04-19 18:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see if the market gives us something we can sink our teeth in on Thursday
2011-04-19 18:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-04-19 18:03:00 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: You too, Fib


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