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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,458
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-04-14 16:00:04 fib1618: good day
2016-04-14 16:00:07 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-04-14 16:00:13 mojave: g'day
2016-04-14 16:00:24 fib1618: good morning
2016-04-14 16:00:38 mojave: [smile]
2016-04-14 16:03:01 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-04-14 16:03:23 mojave: nope
2016-04-14 16:04:59 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up then and get started
2016-04-14 16:05:47 fib1618: after thinking we were likely to see a snapback toward the zero line on Wednesday
2016-04-14 16:06:03 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO had other ideas and continued higher
2016-04-14 16:06:18 fib1618: taking out the reaction highs seen at the end of March
2016-04-14 16:06:30 fib1618: this, of course, was needed for prices to break out of their trading range
2016-04-14 16:06:38 fib1618: and we see that the NYA did just that
2016-04-14 16:07:09 fib1618: moving above horizontal pattern resistance as well from the late December highs
2016-04-14 16:07:21 fib1618: so, in essence, we are now positive for the year
2016-04-14 16:08:09 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2016-04-14 16:08:26 fib1618: and we see that we are now attempting to file our gap resistance area
2016-04-14 16:08:41 fib1618: as we moved back above the +750 level
2016-04-14 16:09:07 fib1618: today we also saw a small snapback back to the break above the late March highs from Wednesday
2016-04-14 16:09:28 fib1618: and with the bullish crossover configuration in the CO components
2016-04-14 16:09:53 fib1618: it's a pretty good bet that we'll see a bounce off today's levels as soon as Friday
2016-04-14 16:10:35 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-04-14 16:10:45 fib1618: and we seem to moving lock step with the CO data
2016-04-14 16:11:19 fib1618: peaking out on Wednesday with a +37 reading compared to the CO MCO high of +36
2016-04-14 16:11:48 fib1618: looking at today's price bar
2016-04-14 16:11:53 fib1618: and we see that we had a mid range close
2016-04-14 16:12:02 fib1618: which would suggest a down close on Friday
2016-04-14 16:12:41 fib1618: probably in fulfilling the technical obligation of a snapback to what was overhead resistance of the just completed trading range
2016-04-14 16:13:22 fib1618: yesterday's rally in equities was confirmed by the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-04-14 16:13:29 fib1618: as it too moved above the end of March highs
2016-04-14 16:13:43 fib1618: and peaking it out with a +30 reading
2016-04-14 16:14:06 fib1618: with today snapping back toward the +25 level with a +24 settlement
2016-04-14 16:14:25 fib1618: previous late March MCO high was a +23
2016-04-14 16:14:33 fib1618: so...snapback complete
2016-04-14 16:15:11 fib1618: with any positive breadth plurality day on Friday pushing the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM to new reaction highs of the current upside sequence
2016-04-14 16:15:46 fib1618: moving to what was our ugly sister on Tuesday, the NDX breadth MCO
2016-04-14 16:16:11 fib1618: and here we were able to take out the early April high point
2016-04-14 16:16:18 fib1618: but not the late March peak
2016-04-14 16:16:26 fib1618: snapback to the zero line today now complete
2016-04-14 16:16:57 fib1618: as well as a snapback of the 10% Trend to the 5% Trend in the NDX MCO components
2016-04-14 16:19:04 fib1618: unlike the NASDAQ breadth MCO that did break above its declining tops line yesterday
2016-04-14 16:19:10 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO has yet to do so
2016-04-14 16:19:15 fib1618: and until this is accomplished
2016-04-14 16:19:46 fib1618: we should remain lukewarm toward trading with this group of issues
2016-04-14 16:20:06 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2016-04-14 16:20:22 fib1618: and here we did finally move back above the zero line on Wednesday
2016-04-14 16:20:32 fib1618: but we didn't take out the end of March highs in this same process
2016-04-14 16:20:54 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor though
2016-04-14 16:21:11 fib1618: and we see that yesterday's strength was enough to break above the March declining tops line
2016-04-14 16:21:26 fib1618: with today acting as a technical snapback to or toward this same line of the breakout
2016-04-14 16:21:50 fib1618: so any near term strength here by Monday
2016-04-14 16:22:11 fib1618: and that would be enough to support future price advancement in this specific index
2016-04-14 16:22:31 fib1618: with 2100 still the upside goal from a week or two ago
2016-04-14 16:23:04 fib1618: small point change today on the OEX breadth MCO
2016-04-14 16:23:11 fib1618: as it too moved back above its zero line on Wednesday and the accelerated declining tops line from the mid March peak
2016-04-14 16:24:03 fib1618: prices on the OEX are still clear for the 940 level
2016-04-14 16:24:24 fib1618: with the OEX breadth MCO components still above their zero lines
2016-04-14 16:24:56 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO also moved back above its zero line
2016-04-14 16:25:08 fib1618: and its end of March highs
2016-04-14 16:25:15 fib1618: small point change today there as well
2016-04-14 16:25:40 fib1618: as the Dow itself has now met its secondary upside price targets today
2016-04-14 16:26:44 fib1618: where we have gained about 2275 points from the 2/11 closing lows
2016-04-14 16:27:08 fib1618: or just under 15%
2016-04-14 16:27:32 fib1618: now...in order to clear to new all time highs
2016-04-14 16:27:54 fib1618: we will need to see the Dow breadth MCO move above the mid March high point
2016-04-14 16:28:17 fib1618: and this would then allow the Dow breadth MCSUM to move above the highs seen at the beginning of November
2016-04-14 16:28:56 fib1618: with any move above the end February peak in the Dow MCO giving new upside targets
2016-04-14 16:29:08 fib1618: for fun...let me get an approximate calculation
2016-04-14 16:29:59 fib1618: looks like 20,500
2016-04-14 16:30:08 fib1618: but until this actually takes place
2016-04-14 16:30:23 fib1618: this is, again, is an approximate based on the current data at hand
2016-04-14 16:30:51 fib1618: great looking double bottom on the Dow on the longer term chart now
2016-04-14 16:31:07 fib1618: but until the November MCSUM highs are taken out
2016-04-14 16:31:11 fib1618: we're in a trading range
2016-04-14 16:31:19 fib1618: with 18,250 the ceiling
2016-04-14 16:31:32 fib1618: and we'll call 16,000 as the base going back to October of 2014
2016-04-14 16:32:21 fib1618: zero line break to the upside as well with the MID breadth MCO
2016-04-14 16:32:32 fib1618: snapback to or toward the zero line today
2016-04-14 16:32:48 fib1618: with the near term objective for the buyers to take out the late March highs in the MCO
2016-04-14 16:33:34 fib1618: snapback complete as well with the 10% to the 5% Trends
2016-04-14 16:33:39 fib1618: so we should see a bounce on Friday
2016-04-14 16:34:00 fib1618: better strength on Wednesday with the SML breadth MCO compared to the MID
2016-04-14 16:34:09 fib1618: as it moved above the late March levels
2016-04-14 16:34:26 fib1618: and snapping back to the +20 level today
2016-04-14 16:34:52 fib1618: also saw a horizontal upside breakout in the SML price chart on Wednesday
2016-04-14 16:35:15 fib1618: with snapback complete today...with a mid range close
2016-04-14 16:35:26 fib1618: this would indicate then a hesitation day after the breakout
2016-04-14 16:35:56 fib1618: and not so much a next day close being lower for the index on Friday
2016-04-14 16:36:03 fib1618: still getting mixed messages here
2016-04-14 16:36:13 fib1618: though we remain with good underlying strength
2016-04-14 16:36:34 fib1618: and as we expected
2016-04-14 16:36:46 fib1618: the TM breadth MCO remains in sync with the NYSE data
2016-04-14 16:36:55 fib1618: with a break above the late March highs yesterday
2016-04-14 16:37:06 fib1618: and a snapback attempt today
2016-04-14 16:37:51 fib1618: you can also see how important the top end of the trading range was in the Wilshire 5000 with the upside gap breakout on Wednesday
2016-04-14 16:37:54 fib1618: so...
2016-04-14 16:38:17 fib1618: the commitment of capital to the equity markets continues
2016-04-14 16:38:29 fib1618: with the broader indices showing good strength right now
2016-04-14 16:38:51 fib1618: while the index sub sets continue to lag behind the parents
2016-04-14 16:39:19 fib1618: could be only an annoyance for now since April OPEX is here
2016-04-14 16:39:23 fib1618: and if that's the case
2016-04-14 16:40:02 fib1618: any downside pressure with open put option positions could be released early next week and the markets will look more in sync to get things to go go go
2016-04-14 16:40:17 fib1618: let's see how the sectors are doing
2016-04-14 16:40:50 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO did break above the zero line on Wednesday
2016-04-14 16:40:56 fib1618: and snapped back to this same line today
2016-04-14 16:40:59 fib1618: however
2016-04-14 16:41:08 fib1618: we haven't as yet taken out the late March highs
2016-04-14 16:41:20 fib1618: and the action here looks to be lethargic
2016-04-14 16:41:37 fib1618: minimally speaking
2016-04-14 16:41:45 fib1618: we remain in a trading range on the XLY index
2016-04-14 16:41:58 fib1618: though any fresh buying by Monday could change this for the better
2016-04-14 16:42:13 fib1618: in any case
2016-04-14 16:42:24 fib1618: one side is about to take control per the MCO's zero line reading
2016-04-14 16:42:45 fib1618: and with the XLY breadth MCSUM holding at the +742 level
2016-04-14 16:43:03 fib1618: the odds favor the buyers near term to at least make a play here
2016-04-14 16:43:22 fib1618: as mentioned last week
2016-04-14 16:43:28 fib1618: upside price targets have been met
2016-04-14 16:43:52 fib1618: so maybe stand aside here on any new purchases
2016-04-14 16:44:06 fib1618: with any open positions on a hold for now
2016-04-14 16:44:28 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCO continues to dig lower
2016-04-14 16:44:40 fib1618: with a nice amount of downside texture in the pattern
2016-04-14 16:45:04 fib1618: this would indicate that the sellers are taking more and more short term control of this basket of issues
2016-04-14 16:45:27 fib1618: but with a current reading of -68 on the XLP breadth MCO
2016-04-14 16:45:57 fib1618: and that we're within spitting distance of the +1000 level in the XLP breadth MCSUM
2016-04-14 16:46:06 fib1618: a bounce here would be indicated near term
2016-04-14 16:46:33 fib1618: the XLE breadth MCO found important resistance at the +49 level
2016-04-14 16:46:47 fib1618: and has since moved lower to today's reading of +32
2016-04-14 16:47:03 fib1618: as mentioned on Tuesday
2016-04-14 16:47:12 fib1618: we did break above chart resistance at the $64 level
2016-04-14 16:47:22 fib1618: and we seem to be sneaking higher now for the last two days
2016-04-14 16:48:02 fib1618: upside price targets remain at $68 and then $70
2016-04-14 16:48:34 fib1618: or about a 7% move from current levels
2016-04-14 16:48:45 fib1618: so long there for now
2016-04-14 16:49:13 fib1618: with a stop at $62 which is the top end of the pattern gap seen on the 21 day close up chart
2016-04-14 16:49:40 fib1618: the XLF had a good day on Wednesday
2016-04-14 16:49:52 fib1618: as the XLF breadth MCO moved above its late March highs
2016-04-14 16:50:05 fib1618: and also above the +50 level
2016-04-14 16:50:20 fib1618: so a confirmed upside breakout there
2016-04-14 16:50:31 fib1618: with a price target of only another $1.00
2016-04-14 16:50:40 fib1618: to the $24 level
2016-04-14 16:51:01 fib1618: so, as we've pointed to for a while, there are much better fish to fry out there
2016-04-14 16:51:37 fib1618: the XLV price structure continues to move higher after its breakout 2 weeks ago
2016-04-14 16:52:05 fib1618: price target there remains at $72
2016-04-14 16:52:42 fib1618: but if we can get the XLV breadth MCO above the early April highs
2016-04-14 16:52:55 fib1618: that will push the XLV breadth MCSUM above the +500 level
2016-04-14 16:53:33 fib1618: and that would then clear the way to an challenge of $73
2016-04-14 16:53:41 fib1618: need a bit more liquidity to go beyond that
2016-04-14 16:53:55 fib1618: but we continue to pulse to the upside
2016-04-14 16:54:34 fib1618: the XLI breadth MCO has yet to move above its late March highs
2016-04-14 16:54:39 fib1618: and until it does
2016-04-14 16:54:50 fib1618: prices would be able to hold on any move into new all time high territory
2016-04-14 16:54:53 fib1618: as we saw today
2016-04-14 16:55:04 fib1618: right now then
2016-04-14 16:55:16 fib1618: this is still an ongoing trading range on the XLI
2016-04-14 16:56:04 fib1618: though the MCO and its components are whispering that we might see better strength near term to order to accomplish a breakout
2016-04-14 16:56:25 fib1618: pretty much the same scenario with the XLB breadth MCO
2016-04-14 16:56:58 fib1618: as it peaked up just under the +50 level on Wednesday
2016-04-14 16:57:13 fib1618: the XLB breadth MCSUM remains highly "overbought" though
2016-04-14 16:57:23 fib1618: as it held the +1250 level
2016-04-14 16:57:36 fib1618: and this will tend to give added buoyancy to prices
2016-04-14 16:58:01 fib1618: problems continue with the XLK breadth MCO
2016-04-14 16:58:12 fib1618: as it failed in moving above the zero line on Wednesday
2016-04-14 16:58:29 fib1618: and this is helping in weighing down the NDX data
2016-04-14 16:58:45 fib1618: for the buyers
2016-04-14 16:59:03 fib1618: it will be very important that they step up to the plate now and make a commitment
2016-04-14 16:59:12 fib1618: or we could see things start to decay again
2016-04-14 16:59:34 fib1618: and that would have an adverse affect on much of the sub set indices that are trying to catch up to the broader measurements
2016-04-14 16:59:57 fib1618: still...we remain corrective for now
2016-04-14 17:00:26 fib1618: but we need as many participants to follow through on Wednesday's break or we'll see a near term failure
2016-04-14 17:00:37 fib1618: and another several days of back and fill would follow
2016-04-14 17:01:04 fib1618: the weakness continues in the XLU breadth MCO
2016-04-14 17:01:24 fib1618: as we are now deeply "oversold" with a -91 reading
2016-04-14 17:01:42 fib1618: combine that with the 10% Trend now near its zero line
2016-04-14 17:02:05 fib1618: and a technical bounce should take place here near term...more than likely on Friday
2016-04-14 17:02:34 fib1618: looks like a complex bottoming pattern in the XLU breadth MCO as well
2016-04-14 17:02:46 fib1618: so the odds are better than 70% that we'll see a bounce by Monday
2016-04-14 17:02:53 fib1618: so...
2016-04-14 17:02:58 fib1618: some good news
2016-04-14 17:03:10 fib1618: and some blah news in other sectors
2016-04-14 17:03:38 fib1618: seems the Staples and Utilities continue to unwind from their deeply "overbought" levels
2016-04-14 17:04:05 fib1618: while the XLE and XLF look to be attracting investment capital over the near term
2016-04-14 17:04:17 fib1618: both the XLI and XLB remain on a hold
2016-04-14 17:04:28 fib1618: with no sell signal given at this time
2016-04-14 17:04:32 fib1618: OBV's
2016-04-14 17:05:09 fib1618: not too much in the way of changes overall from Tuesday
2016-04-14 17:05:38 fib1618: though the STVO's are minimally "overbought" now having the buyers take control on Wednesday after their zero line readings on Tuesday
2016-04-14 17:05:59 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .97
2016-04-14 17:06:14 fib1618: Open 10 at .97
2016-04-14 17:06:21 fib1618: no mans land for now
2016-04-14 17:06:58 fib1618: though the 55 day SMA of the NYSE TRIN is now at levels where we've seen price tops over the last 9 months
2016-04-14 17:07:25 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.10
2016-04-14 17:07:37 fib1618: Open 10 at .98
2016-04-14 17:07:50 fib1618: so we're back in sync now between the NYSE and NASDAQ
2016-04-14 17:08:02 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.02
2016-04-14 17:08:08 fib1618: Open 10 should be close to the same numbers above
2016-04-14 17:08:14 fib1618: .99
2016-04-14 17:08:21 fib1618: so...
2016-04-14 17:08:31 fib1618: the path of least resistance remains with the buyers
2016-04-14 17:08:54 fib1618: though they need more participation to keep things from sagging into next week
2016-04-14 17:09:34 fib1618: with the semi surprise of a break above the trading range an indication that we remain with good underlying strength
2016-04-14 17:09:54 fib1618: and that this should keep things from moving lower in any important way as we move into next week
2016-04-14 17:09:58 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2016-04-14 17:11:03 fib1618: +30
2016-04-14 17:11:15 fib1618: and we're about 7-10 days away from moving to a +45
2016-04-14 17:11:21 fib1618: or better
2016-04-14 17:11:26 fib1618: let me check sentiment
2016-04-14 17:12:13 fib1618: Mark's WSS still showing too many bears here
2016-04-14 17:12:18 fib1618: and that will add to the wall of worry
2016-04-14 17:13:17 fib1618: P/C ratios are now easing off a bit
2016-04-14 17:13:26 fib1618: after suggesting a bottom last week
2016-04-14 17:15:08 fib1618: Dow Jones 65 Composite Index is now above last fall's highs
2016-04-14 17:15:45 fib1618: Dow Transports are now showing good construction
2016-04-14 17:15:57 fib1618: having broke above the 200 day EMA
2016-04-14 17:16:04 fib1618: and finding snapback support
2016-04-14 17:16:33 fib1618: Dow Utilities are riding their 20 day EMA
2016-04-14 17:16:48 fib1618: airlines remain strong
2016-04-14 17:17:11 fib1618: China is perking up
2016-04-14 17:17:25 fib1618: Disk Drives remain very weak
2016-04-14 17:18:04 fib1618: lots of energy sectors now trading just below their 200 day EMA's
2016-04-14 17:18:09 fib1618: keep an eye on those
2016-04-14 17:18:38 fib1618: housing stocks continue to rise
2016-04-14 17:19:06 fib1618: now up 24% since the 2/11 lows
2016-04-14 17:19:21 fib1618: good action in the insurance sector
2016-04-14 17:19:49 fib1618: telecommunications continue firm
2016-04-14 17:20:22 fib1618: the exchanges look blah
2016-04-14 17:20:32 fib1618: but the TSX exchange is very strong right now
2016-04-14 17:20:49 fib1618: so you can thank the recent strength in commodities there
2016-04-14 17:21:50 fib1618: dividend stocks continue to shine
2016-04-14 17:22:22 fib1618: now up 13% since the 2/11 lows
2016-04-14 17:22:31 fib1618: and that's not including the dividends
2016-04-14 17:23:08 fib1618: I'm really annoyed with the news on Peabody
2016-04-14 17:23:51 fib1618: health care devices continue to do very well
2016-04-14 17:23:58 fib1618: IHI
2016-04-14 17:24:23 fib1618: Home construction is also doing very well
2016-04-14 17:25:10 fib1618: REITS continue to inch their way higher
2016-04-14 17:25:28 fib1618: kind of disappointed with the action there
2016-04-14 17:25:37 mojave: Peabody had $20B market cap...
2016-04-14 17:26:12 mojave: poof
2016-04-14 17:26:21 fib1618: and it's all political
2016-04-14 17:26:26 fib1618: so many jobs lost
2016-04-14 17:26:45 fib1618: so I guess the left came through on their promise to put coal out of business
2016-04-14 17:27:28 fib1618: before finding a cheaper way to replace this low cost energy source...but why think of that before putting pressure on a whole industry
2016-04-14 17:28:08 fib1618: looking globally
2016-04-14 17:28:14 fib1618: Brazil continues to look very good here
2016-04-14 17:28:22 fib1618: Canada as well
2016-04-14 17:28:38 fib1618: I'm liking emerging markets more and more now
2016-04-14 17:29:00 fib1618: Europe is still under a lot of pressure here
2016-04-14 17:29:17 fib1618: Asia though is looking so much better
2016-04-14 17:29:33 fib1618: as is Latin America
2016-04-14 17:30:15 fib1618: quite the mixed picture globally
2016-04-14 17:30:35 fib1618: nothing really ruining on all cylinders right now
2016-04-14 17:31:12 fib1618: 3 month T-Bills are now collapsing in yield
2016-04-14 17:31:39 fib1618: Libor rates remain sky high
2016-04-14 17:31:48 fib1618: that has to ease off to get things going
2016-04-14 17:32:12 fib1618: 6 month T-bills also collapsed this week
2016-04-14 17:32:58 fib1618: the US Dollar continues to trend lower
2016-04-14 17:33:28 fib1618: with cross rates helping in providing a lift for US equities
2016-04-14 17:33:45 fib1618: wonder what's wrong with AXP?
2016-04-14 17:34:34 fib1618: multi national banks were strong on Wednesday
2016-04-14 17:35:01 fib1618: and Master Card and VISA are trending higher now
2016-04-14 17:35:06 fib1618: so people are spending
2016-04-14 17:35:14 fib1618: other than that
2016-04-14 17:35:23 fib1618: there's not much out there to get really excited about
2016-04-14 17:35:31 mojave: nice walk thru the park there, Fib!
2016-04-14 17:36:00 fib1618: with the buyers having to continue to keep tapping their foot on the accelerator pedal to keep things going
2016-04-14 17:36:07 fib1618: anything else?
2016-04-14 17:36:33 mojave: not here, I'm just looking thru some SC chart packs
2016-04-14 17:36:50 fib1618: lots of information there
2016-04-14 17:37:38 mojave: beautiful Feb bottom, lot of accel, now coasting, drifting...
2016-04-14 17:37:46 fib1618: pretty much
2016-04-14 17:37:54 fib1618: problem is
2016-04-14 17:38:05 fib1618: that unless we get everyone moving in sequence here
2016-04-14 17:38:14 fib1618: we won't be able to impulse higher
2016-04-14 17:38:33 fib1618: which, selfishly, is what we would love to see
2016-04-14 17:38:36 mojave: right, that's the wall-of-worryers' worry
2016-04-14 17:38:52 fib1618: yea...much of the money though is chasing yield
2016-04-14 17:38:53 mojave: 'every bottom is caused by short-covering'... then what?
2016-04-14 17:39:01 fib1618: we then have to have fresh funds to keep it going
2016-04-14 17:39:02 fib1618: otherwise
2016-04-14 17:39:05 fib1618: we peter out
2016-04-14 17:39:09 fib1618: and decay
2016-04-14 17:39:12 mojave: right
2016-04-14 17:39:15 fib1618: and decay's can then snowball
2016-04-14 17:39:27 fib1618: so...step by step...inch by inch we go
2016-04-14 17:39:49 fib1618: maybe it's all the put buying of the last month that is keeping a cap on things
2016-04-14 17:39:57 fib1618: we'll know soon enough after tomorrow
2016-04-14 17:40:09 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-04-14 17:40:16 fib1618: it's time to say a fond adieu
2016-04-14 17:40:21 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend
2016-04-14 17:40:21 mojave: not here, have a great weekend!
2016-04-14 17:40:30 fib1618: and we'll do this all again next Tuesday
2016-04-14 17:40:33 fib1618: good night


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