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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-04-13 16:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-04-13 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-04-13 16:00:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Very well, thanks
2011-04-13 16:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...what should we talk about today?
2011-04-13 16:01:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wondering if all the dp dats is correct?
2011-04-13 16:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great
2011-04-13 16:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-04-13 16:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which area?
2011-04-13 16:02:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: NAZ doesn't look right to me...
2011-04-13 16:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the MCO?
2011-04-13 16:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lead me oh great one!
2011-04-13 16:02:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: on mco,
2011-04-13 16:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look
2011-04-13 16:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 78 advancers/22 decliners...looks OK
2011-04-13 16:04:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: OK, jeez, pretty weak
2011-04-13 16:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: weak?
2011-04-13 16:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably the largest move back to the zero line I would think
2011-04-13 16:04:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I have it up 7?
2011-04-13 16:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea..everything else is a small change
2011-04-13 16:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth?
2011-04-13 16:05:16 [Message] doc -> Chat: you guys are talking 2 diff things
2011-04-13 16:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh sorry
2011-04-13 16:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're talking the composite
2011-04-13 16:05:23 [Message] doc -> Chat: NASDAQ vs NDX
2011-04-13 16:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2011-04-13 16:05:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-04-13 16:05:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks doc
2011-04-13 16:05:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: np
2011-04-13 16:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1330/1253
2011-04-13 16:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks perfect
2011-04-13 16:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (thank goodness)
2011-04-13 16:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we dive into the data?
2011-04-13 16:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we at least got the technical bounce
2011-04-13 16:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weak open though left a lot to be desired
2011-04-13 16:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I saw Dow futures up 80...and 5 minutes after the open the cash was only up 40?
2011-04-13 16:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yuck
2011-04-13 16:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's go to DP and see what we have
2011-04-13 16:08:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: internals were pretty weak all day
2011-04-13 16:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were flat
2011-04-13 16:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's all we really needed
2011-04-13 16:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was to be an expected bounce
2011-04-13 16:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: HOW we bounced was the big question
2011-04-13 16:09:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-04-13 16:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that vein, not a good day
2011-04-13 16:09:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-04-13 16:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at one point we were only up 3:1
2011-04-13 16:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not nearly the 4:1 I wanted
2011-04-13 16:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...we did bounce
2011-04-13 16:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and TECHNICALLY that's a good thing
2011-04-13 16:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-04-13 16:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can get some follow through after backing and filling today
2011-04-13 16:10:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: we were 4:1 or better only the first 15 min, lol
2011-04-13 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can continue to work with the snapback/resistance idea we were playing with yesterday
2011-04-13 16:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that
2011-04-13 16:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...the open was very weak
2011-04-13 16:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and stunk of Tuesday's failure to perform
2011-04-13 16:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything
2011-04-13 16:11:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: Banking sector gave it up
2011-04-13 16:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're getting closer and closer to some sort of tradable top
2011-04-13 16:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: energy too?
2011-04-13 16:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was just a lethargic kind of day
2011-04-13 16:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no energy at all
2011-04-13 16:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no excitement
2011-04-13 16:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even with JPM
2011-04-13 16:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...here we go
2011-04-13 16:12:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: had to take tiny profit on JPM=boo
2011-04-13 16:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE "burped" higher today
2011-04-13 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remains in position for some carry over for our technical bounce tomorrow
2011-04-13 16:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have an inside range day on the NYA price chart
2011-04-13 16:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should have an up close on Thursday
2011-04-13 16:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: caveat there, of course, is that we don't really have enough of a down trend where this same predictive value of the range day will come about
2011-04-13 16:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it could also be a simple hesitation point before proceeding lower as well
2011-04-13 16:14:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: market feels very heavy to me
2011-04-13 16:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in either case, today was indecisive
2011-04-13 16:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we're pretty much evened up on the volume MCSUM's here
2011-04-13 16:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so both sides are poking and prodding
2011-04-13 16:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the heaviness could be your instinct in that we didn't bounce with more vigor
2011-04-13 16:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all in the rhythm of the structure
2011-04-13 16:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the cadence
2011-04-13 16:15:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: maybe, my longs were very strong, but the rest seemed tired
2011-04-13 16:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given what the market has done over the last 9 months, it's probably exhausted
2011-04-13 16:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like drinking a couple of energy drinks and then coming down after the buzz
2011-04-13 16:17:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-04-13 16:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it's the bulls turn to step up
2011-04-13 16:17:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no follow through on that thrust, either
2011-04-13 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, like we talked about yesterday
2011-04-13 16:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday was a bad character day for the bulls
2011-04-13 16:17:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's always tomorrow
2011-04-13 16:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small bounce higher on the composite NYSE breadth MCO as well
2011-04-13 16:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no man's land
2011-04-13 16:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we know one thing
2011-04-13 16:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM something is going to happen sooner than later as far as direction is concerned as we're right at the zero line now
2011-04-13 16:19:26 [Message] doc -> Chat: AA down after earning, JPM down. GOOG after the close tomor I think. Maybe time for UP after earnings?
2011-04-13 16:20:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't think it will matter as I believe the market is looking on down the line now since the expiration of QE2 comes with the 2nd quarter reports
2011-04-13 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not what they say, it's how they'll say it
2011-04-13 16:20:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-04-13 16:21:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: Da boyz don't like it if all the post earnings reactions are the same direction. Got to keep the retailers guessing
2011-04-13 16:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the one hand, if reports are suggesting a decrease in sales that would promote QE3 and the market should be able to withstand price corrections
2011-04-13 16:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand if they say that business is looking better, then the stock should look favorable with current liquidity levels as they are
2011-04-13 16:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not worried at all about AAPL's earnings
2011-04-13 16:22:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am worried about what they forecast for next quarter
2011-04-13 16:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the potential for bearish divergence in the MCSUM's
2011-04-13 16:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any hint of a loss of earnings momentum is not going to go too well mark up
2011-04-13 16:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you can't sell something at a higher price if there's no fundamental value supporting it (in the guise of demand)
2011-04-13 16:23:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: For now, AAPL seemed content closing the March 21 gap.
2011-04-13 16:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did it hold 330 again?
2011-04-13 16:24:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: up to 336 now
2011-04-13 16:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice day
2011-04-13 16:24:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 6
2011-04-13 16:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too surprising
2011-04-13 16:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that they could had sold it off in anticipation of any bad news
2011-04-13 16:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus it was at the lower end of the range
2011-04-13 16:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in hindsight...that was a good call yesterday
2011-04-13 16:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get to this mature stage
2011-04-13 16:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is going to reward only those who deserve it and will trash the rest
2011-04-13 16:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we should remain cautious here
2011-04-13 16:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM, however, is showing a slow down in its decline around the +500 level
2011-04-13 16:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we see a turn up here above this level this would be a bullish event
2011-04-13 16:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a move below it and the NDX is going to start to fall apart
2011-04-13 16:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when we consider the position of the NDX volume MCSUM
2011-04-13 16:27:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: and you'd get a bullish crossover of the components if we move up from here. GOOG might play a big factor here
2011-04-13 16:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could
2011-04-13 16:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when does its weightings change?
2011-04-13 16:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next week?
2011-04-13 16:29:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: I just hate the config of NAUD right now. UGLY but could be saved.
2011-04-13 16:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't believe its changed yet
2011-04-13 16:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going from 20% to 13% on AAPL alone is a whole lot of evaporated leverage
2011-04-13 16:29:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the OEX breadth MCO
2011-04-13 16:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also on the SML breadth MCO
2011-04-13 16:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other than that there's not a whole lot different than yesterday except today's small changes keep the downward pressure on the MCSUM's
2011-04-13 16:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on to the sectors
2011-04-13 16:31:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM is now back down to the +500 level
2011-04-13 16:31:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: Kind of a neat thing on RUT right now is that it is in the window for the 5wk low and it should stay above the 2.5wk low which was tested and held today. So far
2011-04-13 16:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: defensive issues, such as the XLP, continue to move higher without any problems
2011-04-13 16:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes..so far
2011-04-13 16:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was a classic "back and fill" day
2011-04-13 16:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I like to think of these kind of days like a dog digging a hole in the ground, dropping its bone in the hole, and then backing and filling the hole to provide support going forward
2011-04-13 16:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key, of course, will really be tomorrow now
2011-04-13 16:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we don't want to waste too much time covering up our messes
2011-04-13 16:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had a small point change on the XLP breadth MCO
2011-04-13 16:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...how pretty
2011-04-13 16:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLE
2011-04-13 16:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk about a classic Elliott pattern
2011-04-13 16:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact...let's look at the price chart for a moment
2011-04-13 16:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see the first move down
2011-04-13 16:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a consolidation
2011-04-13 16:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a strong move lower with a gap
2011-04-13 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this gap is the classic "measuring gap"
2011-04-13 16:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in Elliott...the center point of 3 down
2011-04-13 16:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now in four
2011-04-13 16:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we look at the MCO
2011-04-13 16:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're starting to build divergence between today and the March lows
2011-04-13 16:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the measuring gap
2011-04-13 16:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can now look for a downside objective which would be...
2011-04-13 16:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was the top - 82?
2011-04-13 16:37:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: 81
2011-04-13 16:37:58 [Message] doc -> Chat: so 74-75 range?
2011-04-13 16:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...so 4 points
2011-04-13 16:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk 4 points from the intraday high of yesterday and you get 73
2011-04-13 16:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: exactly at the lows of March
2011-04-13 16:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can hold divergence
2011-04-13 16:38:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a good entry
2011-04-13 16:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott wise, however
2011-04-13 16:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the higher top, this could be an irregular flat in play
2011-04-13 16:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside there would be about 68
2011-04-13 16:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pick your poison
2011-04-13 16:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did silver hold its rally today?
2011-04-13 16:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: outside range day on the XLF
2011-04-13 16:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should close higher on Thursday
2011-04-13 16:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO is now highly "oversold" as well
2011-04-13 16:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy..talk about a collapse...the XLV breadth MCO coined the word
2011-04-13 16:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from a +95 to below the zero line in less than a week?!?
2011-04-13 16:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-04-13 16:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that magical +750 level providing resistance on the XLV breadth MCSUM
2011-04-13 16:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...mighty nasty looking MCO pattern on the breadth XLI
2011-04-13 16:43:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no texture...just a slip and slide
2011-04-13 16:43:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: corrective?
2011-04-13 16:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fortunately, the XLI breadth MCSUM is very high - +920
2011-04-13 16:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much so
2011-04-13 16:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but, boy or boy
2011-04-13 16:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are certainly masking what's internally taken place over the last couple of days
2011-04-13 16:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...look at the XLB!
2011-04-13 16:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these charts are like the someone slammed the door on available funds
2011-04-13 16:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just sucked it all dry
2011-04-13 16:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't even remember seeing ANY MCO move from a +100 to almost a -100 in less than a week
2011-04-13 16:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like the market had a heart attack...maybe even a stroke?
2011-04-13 16:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice structure now in the XLK
2011-04-13 16:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the bad news coming with the XLK breadth MCO components
2011-04-13 16:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback complete up to the zero line
2011-04-13 16:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could very well be a rounding top in play there
2011-04-13 16:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the XLU couldn't hide from this weeks selling
2011-04-13 16:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so only the consumer staples are thriving here
2011-04-13 16:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this sloshing effect is not good for the market
2011-04-13 16:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it certainly makes it challenging for the technician
2011-04-13 16:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what happens now?
2011-04-13 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does the tide come rushing back in as quickly as it went out?
2011-04-13 16:51:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will we need texture to form stability?
2011-04-13 16:51:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from the March lows, we saw very little texture on the upside
2011-04-13 16:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see absolutely none on the reverse
2011-04-13 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know
2011-04-13 16:52:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my spidy sense tells me that we've topped here
2011-04-13 16:52:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto
2011-04-13 16:52:57 [Message] doc -> Chat: spidy?
2011-04-13 16:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's so difficult to really know with these extreme movements in the liquidity pool
2011-04-13 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Spiderman
2011-04-13 16:53:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: ah
2011-04-13 16:53:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he had a spidy sense that told him when danger was happening
2011-04-13 16:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I need more info here
2011-04-13 16:53:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideas?
2011-04-13 16:54:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that wave on the xle looks clean-and doesn't bode well, imho
2011-04-13 16:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's definitely impulsing
2011-04-13 16:54:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-04-13 16:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the question though is
2011-04-13 16:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it wave 1
2011-04-13 16:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or wave C?
2011-04-13 16:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals say C
2011-04-13 16:54:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not going to jump blindly here
2011-04-13 16:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as I'm seeing things I've never seen
2011-04-13 16:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like
2011-04-13 16:55:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: if it's a c, it's probably irregular-and even that would be a lot of damage
2011-04-13 16:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Titanic
2011-04-13 16:55:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it had no idea of a rouge wave was about to hit it
2011-04-13 16:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I wouldn't call it a lot
2011-04-13 16:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 68 is not a lot
2011-04-13 16:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: corrective...sure
2011-04-13 16:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our advantage though
2011-04-13 16:56:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comes from the leading indication from gold
2011-04-13 16:56:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, it's 9% from here
2011-04-13 16:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look at the daily
2011-04-13 16:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then make your money
2011-04-13 16:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the measuring gap gives you at least 73
2011-04-13 16:56:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-04-13 16:57:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but bigger picture wise
2011-04-13 16:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not what I would call a lot
2011-04-13 16:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just me
2011-04-13 16:57:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment - let me look at the gold pattern
2011-04-13 16:57:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: would actually be very healthy, long term
2011-04-13 16:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got it
2011-04-13 16:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec and I'll show you the echo.
2011-04-13 17:01:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/goldoil041311.png
2011-04-13 17:01:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be either the November or December top in gold
2011-04-13 17:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in either case
2011-04-13 17:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it suggests that crude is going to trade net sideways for a while
2011-04-13 17:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and start that little decline in January Gold in June or July
2011-04-13 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually crude will top out in August
2011-04-13 17:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll allow a little window on that
2011-04-13 17:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...the pattern is not perfect
2011-04-13 17:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it echos
2011-04-13 17:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see it?
2011-04-13 17:03:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure do
2011-04-13 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this should provide the support for a divergent low
2011-04-13 17:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not an Elliott flat low
2011-04-13 17:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know one important thing about flats
2011-04-13 17:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are patterns of strength in the trend
2011-04-13 17:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more so the irregular than the simple
2011-04-13 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even more importantly
2011-04-13 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last quarter or so of the year should see record prices in crude based on the current pattern of gold
2011-04-13 17:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: war?
2011-04-13 17:05:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Saudis?
2011-04-13 17:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we really don't know the trigger
2011-04-13 17:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but understanding this allows us to look at situations a bit differently than what you're told in the media (for example)
2011-04-13 17:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll watch the pull back here
2011-04-13 17:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's shallow, we give the nod to the December highs
2011-04-13 17:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if more substantial...November
2011-04-13 17:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it all starts with gold and moves from asset class to asset class
2011-04-13 17:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ha
2011-04-13 17:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ready for this?
2011-04-13 17:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is funny
2011-04-13 17:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me 2 minutes
2011-04-13 17:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in past chats
2011-04-13 17:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've talked about the amount of time it usually takes for this same echo effect in gold to reach equities
2011-04-13 17:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does anyone remember how many months that is?
2011-04-13 17:09:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 13?
2011-04-13 17:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's actually about 18 months
2011-04-13 17:10:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah
2011-04-13 17:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...let's take 18 months from here and what month would that be?
2011-04-13 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: October 2009?
2011-04-13 17:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ready?
2011-04-13 17:11:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check this out - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/goldspx041311.png
2011-04-13 17:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too bad
2011-04-13 17:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...the tsunami could be the thumb on the scale here
2011-04-13 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: allowing the current pattern to retrace much higher than gold did in January of 2010
2011-04-13 17:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...it's an echo
2011-04-13 17:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a duplicate
2011-04-13 17:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is what is going on here
2011-04-13 17:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the current evidence of our breaking down internally like we have
2011-04-13 17:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a good possibility of a multi month consolidation in front of us of 4-5 months
2011-04-13 17:14:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2011-04-13 17:14:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which I guess would be a reasonable expectation given how we've got here
2011-04-13 17:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really bizarre
2011-04-13 17:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've extended the time period to 2008...its eerie
2011-04-13 17:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-04-13 17:15:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a bit of fun with intermarket relationships and how the flow of excess liquidity tends to have an effect on everything else
2011-04-13 17:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the CO NYSE volume MCO
2011-04-13 17:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also on the NYSE composite
2011-04-13 17:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we thought earlier...
2011-04-13 17:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume plurality is holding here
2011-04-13 17:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did have a breakdown in the OEX volume MCO, however
2011-04-13 17:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow too
2011-04-13 17:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mid range close on the SML
2011-04-13 17:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a small point change on the SML volume MCO
2011-04-13 17:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...we are really compressed here
2011-04-13 17:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a nice looking inverted ledge on the TM volume MCSUM
2011-04-13 17:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice reversal on NDX CVI today
2011-04-13 17:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is pretty much the same as yesterday
2011-04-13 17:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means
2011-04-13 17:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears aren't showing a lot of conviction as yet either
2011-04-13 17:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tough market
2011-04-13 17:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.26
2011-04-13 17:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.00
2011-04-13 17:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .53
2011-04-13 17:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2011-04-13 17:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: starting to get frothy there
2011-04-13 17:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .73
2011-04-13 17:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92 - neutral
2011-04-13 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest...either side can take the rings here
2011-04-13 17:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I need more information
2011-04-13 17:22:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: naz frothy and at the zero line-no bueno to me
2011-04-13 17:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the CVI was active
2011-04-13 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a warning shot for the bulls
2011-04-13 17:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would not stick my neck out here
2011-04-13 17:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many variables
2011-04-13 17:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just one of those times I guess
2011-04-13 17:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's good and bad
2011-04-13 17:23:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it truly is
2011-04-13 17:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but bigger picture wise
2011-04-13 17:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to be careful of a larger consolidation here
2011-04-13 17:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would fit the picture of the indecision we're seeing
2011-04-13 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even last minute retirement money isn't moving the market
2011-04-13 17:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be grid lock with OPEX
2011-04-13 17:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many variables
2011-04-13 17:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would stand aside for now
2011-04-13 17:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market moves, and breadth plurality is with the move, hit and run only
2011-04-13 17:25:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: or, is the retirement money propping it here?
2011-04-13 17:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll need to see at least 2-3 days of consecutive action in one direction or the other to know better
2011-04-13 17:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be
2011-04-13 17:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but times are tough
2011-04-13 17:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gas is high
2011-04-13 17:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: jobs are scarce
2011-04-13 17:26:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: spending cuts look more real
2011-04-13 17:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the problem
2011-04-13 17:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was in the speech today
2011-04-13 17:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they want to raise taxes instead of making the necessary cuts
2011-04-13 17:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have no backbone
2011-04-13 17:27:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: need both
2011-04-13 17:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taxes do not need to be raised
2011-04-13 17:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you raise taxes you will get less for it
2011-04-13 17:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the way the government gets around that is they they raise the minimum wage
2011-04-13 17:28:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when jobs were actually here you did-don't know now
2011-04-13 17:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't matter
2011-04-13 17:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bull market started with the 1984 tax cuts
2011-04-13 17:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expansion in the 50's was built on reconstruction
2011-04-13 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guarantee you if you raise taxes the coffers will suffer
2011-04-13 17:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much debt
2011-04-13 17:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people won't pay
2011-04-13 17:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and jobs will be non existent
2011-04-13 17:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're screwed
2011-04-13 17:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-04-13 17:30:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, LOL
2011-04-13 17:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else on your minds?
2011-04-13 17:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wish I had more to offer tonight, but the market isn't giving me anything to share
2011-04-13 17:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically, I would still look for a follow through bounce near term
2011-04-13 17:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we start to move lower again...tight stops
2011-04-13 17:31:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm long two stocks, they are flying, and I hate the market here LOL
2011-04-13 17:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which ones?
2011-04-13 17:31:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nflx and tsl
2011-04-13 17:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know TSL
2011-04-13 17:32:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: solar
2011-04-13 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dead industry
2011-04-13 17:32:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: grab it and run!
2011-04-13 17:32:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh yea, have a nice pattern-will short the top of it as well
2011-04-13 17:33:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yeppers
2011-04-13 17:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-04-13 17:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...the word of the week is: "caution"
2011-04-13 17:33:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: BET
2011-04-13 17:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: use great care over the next couple of days
2011-04-13 17:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and watch your longs
2011-04-13 17:34:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that
2011-04-13 17:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will meet again next Tuesday
2011-04-13 17:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great week
2011-04-13 17:34:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2011-04-13 17:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up then
2011-04-13 17:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night


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