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Posts: 4,424
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-04-12 16:00:17 fib1618: good day
2016-04-12 16:00:23 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-04-12 16:00:55 mojave: good here
2016-04-12 16:02:26 fib1618: What's the time there...9 in the morning??
2016-04-12 16:03:00 mojave: yes
2016-04-12 16:03:06 fib1618: OK...any questions or comment before we get started??
2016-04-12 16:03:14 fib1618: How's tomorrow looking? [smile]
2016-04-12 16:03:15 mojave: no sir
2016-04-12 16:03:21 mojave: ha, beautiful
2016-04-12 16:03:27 fib1618: good to know
2016-04-12 16:03:55 fib1618: kinda of strange that we're still 8 hours before we catch up with you [smile]
2016-04-12 16:04:09 fib1618: tomorrow, that is
2016-04-12 16:04:17 mojave: time stands still for no one, it'll come soon enough
2016-04-12 16:04:26 fib1618: so I've learned over time
2016-04-12 16:04:32 fib1618: or is that under time
2016-04-12 16:04:44 fib1618: over under sideways down
2016-04-12 16:04:58 fib1618: OK...need two minutes
2016-04-12 16:07:24 fib1618: Alright...let's get SC up and get going
2016-04-12 16:08:18 fib1618: after moving to the -54 level last week
2016-04-12 16:08:28 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has moved higher since that time
2016-04-12 16:08:38 fib1618: and is now back above its zero line
2016-04-12 16:08:47 fib1618: with a reading today of +10
2016-04-12 16:09:08 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor
2016-04-12 16:09:32 fib1618: and we also see that we have now broken above the declining tops line that has been controlling this MCO structure for the last month
2016-04-12 16:09:36 fib1618: AND
2016-04-12 16:10:07 fib1618: we got a bullish crossover buy signal today on the NYSE MCO components
2016-04-12 16:10:45 fib1618: so we're back to a bull signal there
2016-04-12 16:11:04 fib1618: our next expectation would be for a snapback to or toward the MCO zero line
2016-04-12 16:11:09 fib1618: and if we hold support there
2016-04-12 16:11:28 fib1618: and then move above today's high point
2016-04-12 16:11:45 fib1618: we would have a re-initiation signal for the current rising price pattern sequence
2016-04-12 16:12:02 fib1618: at this point though
2016-04-12 16:12:16 fib1618: we have moved to the top of the current trading range that we see on the NYA daily price chart
2016-04-12 16:12:26 fib1618: and with the lower low of last week in the MCO
2016-04-12 16:12:47 fib1618: the odds favor another trip to the lower end of the range before we actually see a chance of an upside breakout
2016-04-12 16:12:59 fib1618: with the timing of such to come after this Friday's OPEX
2016-04-12 16:13:22 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-04-12 16:13:33 fib1618: and here we see a similar move higher from last week's lows
2016-04-12 16:13:56 fib1618: but we are leading the CO issues with a MCO reading of +16
2016-04-12 16:14:16 fib1618: crossover buy here as well on the components
2016-04-12 16:14:36 fib1618: but here too
2016-04-12 16:15:26 fib1618: the likelihood that we'll continue to move above the current range isn't as great as it would be to back and fill a bit more to build a better internal foundation from where prices can build on moving forward
2016-04-12 16:15:49 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-04-12 16:16:22 fib1618: and here we've been higher since last weeks low point
2016-04-12 16:16:34 fib1618: but we've yet to take out the reaction highs seen last week
2016-04-12 16:16:40 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor here
2016-04-12 16:17:23 fib1618: and we have marginally broken above the declining tops line from the early March highs
2016-04-12 16:17:43 fib1618: with the 10% Component finding zero line support
2016-04-12 16:17:54 fib1618: and now we're back to a crossover buy signal here as well
2016-04-12 16:18:30 fib1618: nice reversal price bar today on the NASDAQ Composite chart
2016-04-12 16:18:49 fib1618: probably good enough to get back to the 4900 level
2016-04-12 16:19:07 fib1618: but the overall internal amplitude here remains on the mediocre side
2016-04-12 16:19:24 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2016-04-12 16:19:38 fib1618: and we see where our problem lies for the composite
2016-04-12 16:19:57 fib1618: as we remain well below the zero line with a reading today of -21
2016-04-12 16:20:48 fib1618: while the 10% Trend, though back above its zero line, remains in a negative crossover with the 5% Trend
2016-04-12 16:21:16 fib1618: still...we have a nice reversal price bar on the NDX as well
2016-04-12 16:21:35 fib1618: so maybe some follow through initially on Wednesday
2016-04-12 16:21:46 fib1618: but unless buying picks up dramatically
2016-04-12 16:22:15 fib1618: we won't see much more than a possible challenge of the 4520 level
2016-04-12 16:23:10 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2016-04-12 16:23:35 fib1618: and here we have a classic technical snapback to or toward the zero line now complete with a reading today of -4
2016-04-12 16:24:06 fib1618: we remain on a negative crossover as well with the SPX MCO components
2016-04-12 16:24:37 fib1618: though we did see some good support at the component zero line
2016-04-12 16:27:40 fib1618: taken together
2016-04-12 16:27:45 fib1618: we remain corrective overall
2016-04-12 16:27:51 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2016-04-12 16:28:09 fib1618: and we have a zero line snapback also complete here with a +2 reading
2016-04-12 16:28:26 fib1618: with a crossover buy on the components
2016-04-12 16:28:59 fib1618: not enough to say with any kind of certainty, however, that the corrective process is behind us
2016-04-12 16:29:15 fib1618: but it does indicate that the buyers currently enjoy good underlying strength
2016-04-12 16:29:51 fib1618: and this is something that the various breadth MCSUM's have been indicating for the last several weeks as being the case at hand
2016-04-12 16:30:34 fib1618: zero line snapback also complete on the Dow breadth MCO
2016-04-12 16:30:44 fib1618: so the SPX, OEX and Dow remain in sync here
2016-04-12 16:31:01 fib1618: moving to the MID breadth MCO
2016-04-12 16:31:31 fib1618: and here too we have nearly completed our technical snapback to or toward the zero line with a reading today of -3
2016-04-12 16:31:53 fib1618: still on a negative crossover though on the MID MCO components
2016-04-12 16:32:32 fib1618: we also have the same problem here for the buyers with the SML breadth MCO and its components
2016-04-12 16:33:09 fib1618: and moving to the TM breadth MCO
2016-04-12 16:33:39 fib1618: and we see here an echo of both the NYSE CO and Composite breadth MCO's
2016-04-12 16:33:55 fib1618: as we have moved back above the zero line with a reading of +12
2016-04-12 16:34:27 fib1618: and we've broken above the declining tops line of March in the process
2016-04-12 16:35:40 fib1618: with a nice crossover buy signal in the TM MCO components
2016-04-12 16:35:42 fib1618: so....
2016-04-12 16:35:48 fib1618: we have a bit of a mixed picture right now
2016-04-12 16:36:12 fib1618: with much of the market's common stocks under pressure
2016-04-12 16:36:51 fib1618: while other broader market products that are more interest rate sensitive seem to be doing the lion's share of work at this time
2016-04-12 16:37:42 fib1618: in order to change this we will now need to see investment capital spreading out to all areas of the market that are more equity based than they are dividend related
2016-04-12 16:38:28 fib1618: OK...
2016-04-12 16:38:43 fib1618: let's move to the volume McClellan's
2016-04-12 16:39:12 mojave: pretty much in-sync I think
2016-04-12 16:42:12 fib1618: I see that the XLE broke above $64 today
2016-04-12 16:42:16 fib1618: so steady as she goes
2016-04-12 16:42:27 mojave: volume or sectors?
2016-04-12 16:42:45 mojave: I'm easy [smile]
2016-04-12 16:42:49 fib1618: volume
2016-04-12 16:43:03 fib1618: I was just scrolling down and saw it
2016-04-12 16:43:07 fib1618: OK...
2016-04-12 16:43:09 mojave: gotcha
2016-04-12 16:43:22 fib1618: NYSE CO volume MCO has move sharply to the upside now
2016-04-12 16:43:29 fib1618: and is now leading cumulative breadth higher with a reading of +28
2016-04-12 16:43:44 fib1618: this is good news for the bulls
2016-04-12 16:44:09 fib1618: as it indicates that we're starting to see higher than average buy side volume coming into the market
2016-04-12 16:44:20 fib1618: which is kind of unusual given its OPEX week
2016-04-12 16:44:29 fib1618: so something may be "up" as it were
2016-04-12 16:44:55 fib1618: we also see that beside a crossover buy on the components
2016-04-12 16:45:10 fib1618: the NYSE CO volume MCSUM is holding the important +750 level
2016-04-12 16:45:40 fib1618: so any further follow through here on the buy side in volume plurality is going to allow the NYSE price structure to breakout of its current range to the upside
2016-04-12 16:46:08 fib1618: and this would compliment what was our original expectation of a tradable bottom coming in for last week
2016-04-12 16:46:23 fib1618: and if this were to occur
2016-04-12 16:46:57 fib1618: this would be something that would indicate a marketplace that has a strong foundation of cash below current levels which is important information moving forward
2016-04-12 16:47:27 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite volume MCO
2016-04-12 16:47:41 fib1618: and here too we're seeing volume leading breadth to the upside
2016-04-12 16:47:46 fib1618: with a reading today of +26
2016-04-12 16:49:17 fib1618: with our observation of seeing compact downside postings in the NYSE Composite volume MCSUM last week as showing that the sellers had very little power as we backed and filled the current pattern structure
2016-04-12 16:49:37 fib1618: then we get to the NASDAQ volume MCO
2016-04-12 16:49:45 fib1618: and here we remain below the zero line
2016-04-12 16:50:06 fib1618: as does the NDX volume MCO
2016-04-12 16:51:22 fib1618: showing that the secondary issues that make up the NASDAQ marketplace remains buoyant, but not important enough to commit larger sums of capital compared to those issues that probably offer a dividend while you wait for reward
2016-04-12 16:51:57 fib1618: the SPX volume MCO is back above its zero line
2016-04-12 16:52:02 fib1618: and even more importantly
2016-04-12 16:52:15 fib1618: we have broken above the March declining tops line
2016-04-12 16:52:44 fib1618: we also have good compliment action here as well
2016-04-12 16:53:05 fib1618: as the 10% Trend found support at just below its zero line
2016-04-12 16:53:35 fib1618: we see that there a bit more strength in the OEX volume MCO
2016-04-12 16:54:07 fib1618: though we remain well below the March declining tops line there
2016-04-12 16:54:57 fib1618: we're still seeing solid support as well in the Dow volume MCO and its components
2016-04-12 16:55:34 fib1618: like its breadth cousin, the MID volume MCO has now been able to snapback to its zero line today
2016-04-12 16:56:48 fib1618: with a slight bullish crossover on the MID volume MCO components
2016-04-12 16:57:27 fib1618: looking a little stronger here with the SML volume MCO with today's reading leading breadth to the upside with a +8
2016-04-12 16:57:55 fib1618: and the TM volume MCO looks a bit on the lethargic side of late
2016-04-12 16:58:28 fib1618: more like a struggle as we have quite a battle going on right now on where money should be put to work
2016-04-12 16:59:07 fib1618: but it's pretty clear that interest rate and/or value issues that produce a good dividend are seeing the majority of support right now
2016-04-12 16:59:10 fib1618: so...
2016-04-12 16:59:26 fib1618: the market wants to breakout of its trading range
2016-04-12 16:59:43 fib1618: but there's just too many subsets that are struggling right now in order to get this done
2016-04-12 17:00:06 fib1618: overall...the reversal bars today suggest a good opening in the morning
2016-04-12 17:00:19 fib1618: but more than likely any rally attempt will fizzle after the first hour
2016-04-12 17:01:23 fib1618: and we'll then go through the process of needing additional back and fill to diverge with last week's lower lows in the MCO's before we'll be able to build prices higher beyond the current trading ranges
2016-04-12 17:02:21 fib1618: just checked the XLE volume MCO and we look to be good to go for the upside price targets mentioned last Thursday and that could be a game changer to the last statement
2016-04-12 17:02:44 fib1618: moving to the OBV's
2016-04-12 17:03:27 fib1618: and we've seen some strong buying over the last couple of days going by the CVI's
2016-04-12 17:03:35 fib1618: though not climactic
2016-04-12 17:04:03 fib1618: it's been enough to stabilize last weeks weakness
2016-04-12 17:04:21 fib1618: STVO's are going through the process of snapping back up to or toward their zero lines
2016-04-12 17:04:27 fib1618: so one side is about to take control
2016-04-12 17:04:38 fib1618: and with the VTO's still nicely above their zero lines
2016-04-12 17:04:51 fib1618: we should initially see the buyers take the ring near term
2016-04-12 17:05:22 fib1618: but we're going to need to see the VTO get close to neutral before we're likely to see any breakout of the trading ranges
2016-04-12 17:05:38 fib1618: ahhh...
2016-04-12 17:05:43 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .60
2016-04-12 17:05:47 fib1618: short covering
2016-04-12 17:05:51 fib1618: that explains it
2016-04-12 17:06:04 fib1618: Open 10 at .99
2016-04-12 17:06:21 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .98
2016-04-12 17:06:35 fib1618: Open 10 at .97
2016-04-12 17:06:41 fib1618: getting better now for the buyers
2016-04-12 17:06:53 fib1618: TM TRIN at .95
2016-04-12 17:07:04 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2016-04-12 17:07:10 fib1618: so with the help of the TRIN
2016-04-12 17:08:24 fib1618: it would appear that much today's better numbers in the NYSE data can be pointed to both the participation of interest rate sensitive issues and the covering of shorts in many of the common stocks that trade on that exchange
2016-04-12 17:08:59 fib1618: while the NASDAQ remains corrective due to its issues being more growth oriented
2016-04-12 17:09:14 fib1618: as we have noted so many times before
2016-04-12 17:09:24 fib1618: in order for prices to trend either higher or lower
2016-04-12 17:09:43 fib1618: we MUST have the entire market working as one cohesive unit to get the job done
2016-04-12 17:10:17 fib1618: so while the NYSE action is telling us that liquidity remains quite ample to handle any or all surprises
2016-04-12 17:12:21 fib1618: we're going to need to see a continuation (of what looks to be) better cash flow moving into other areas that include issues that have their futures pinned on future growth potential
2016-04-12 17:12:46 fib1618: and not on the cost of money just being "accomodative"
2016-04-12 17:12:59 fib1618: overall...
2016-04-12 17:13:09 fib1618: we're in a correctional sequence for now
2016-04-12 17:13:35 fib1618: and trip back down to the lower end of the current trading range is likely to take place over the next couple of days
2016-04-12 17:13:48 fib1618: and if we diverge between the MCO's and price
2016-04-12 17:14:08 fib1618: then we'll be in good shape for a breakout of the range as soon as next week
2016-04-12 17:14:13 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2016-04-12 17:14:47 fib1618: AMEX data continue to get stronger
2016-04-12 17:15:00 fib1618: solid buy volume coming in there
2016-04-12 17:15:04 fib1618: so watch the ETF's
2016-04-12 17:15:35 fib1618: Canadian Ventures is on fire now
2016-04-12 17:15:44 fib1618: so watch the commodity stocks now
2016-04-12 17:15:47 fib1618: oil
2016-04-12 17:15:48 fib1618: gold
2016-04-12 17:15:52 fib1618: metals
2016-04-12 17:16:03 fib1618: anything that would be Earth commodities
2016-04-12 17:16:41 fib1618: NAAD line is hugging the 19 day EMA
2016-04-12 17:16:45 fib1618: that's bullish
2016-04-12 17:17:03 fib1618: new all time highs in the NYAD line today
2016-04-12 17:17:10 fib1618: you can't fight that
2016-04-12 17:17:38 fib1618: new highs on the NYUD line...very constructive
2016-04-12 17:18:15 fib1618: and Canadian stocks are building a nice foundation here to follow the lead of the ventures
2016-04-12 17:18:16 fib1618: +30 on the BETS
2016-04-12 17:18:40 fib1618: so it would seem that money is continuing to move into equities
2016-04-12 17:19:00 fib1618: and it would appear that the pace is picking up...especially in commodities asset class
2016-04-12 17:19:18 fib1618: and the only reason why commodities would be going higher would be based on anticipated demand
2016-04-12 17:19:35 fib1618: and anticipated demand suggests economic expansion
2016-04-12 17:19:39 fib1618: now..
2016-04-12 17:19:52 fib1618: what we don't know is whether this is North American related only
2016-04-12 17:20:03 fib1618: or is this going to spread globally
2016-04-12 17:20:11 fib1618: looking at the BSE A/D line of late
2016-04-12 17:21:14 fib1618: and it suggests that we may be seeing better things coming from emerging markets
2016-04-12 17:21:46 fib1618: with the cost of money being the spark plug to this trigger
2016-04-12 17:21:52 fib1618: still
2016-04-12 17:22:00 fib1618: on a technical basis
2016-04-12 17:22:13 fib1618: another few days of back and fill would be healthy
2016-04-12 17:22:21 fib1618: we'll just have to see how it goes
2016-04-12 17:22:26 fib1618: but like the BETS suggests
2016-04-12 17:22:37 fib1618: it's a good time for accumulation of longs
2016-04-12 17:22:41 fib1618: anything else?
2016-04-12 17:23:08 mojave: not here, I posted an update to that Zahorchak thread in forum
2016-04-12 17:23:19 fib1618: thank you
2016-04-12 17:23:33 fib1618: how did the Ords open?
2016-04-12 17:24:07 mojave: typically just follow the US
2016-04-12 17:24:31 fib1618: so you're up
2016-04-12 17:24:37 mojave: yes
2016-04-12 17:24:47 fib1618: NYSE breadth today was 3.90:1 to the good
2016-04-12 17:24:50 fib1618: not bad
2016-04-12 17:24:55 fib1618: get another day like this
2016-04-12 17:25:04 fib1618: and we'll be on our way to higher price highs
2016-04-12 17:25:32 fib1618: just a matter of time it would seem
2016-04-12 17:25:41 fib1618: where else is money going to go?
2016-04-12 17:25:54 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-04-12 17:25:58 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-04-12 17:26:02 mojave: tks as always
2016-04-12 17:26:07 fib1618: everyone have a great rest of your day
2016-04-12 17:26:13 fib1618: and we'll do this again on Thursday
2016-04-12 17:26:21 fib1618: (and in some cases, Friday)
2016-04-12 17:26:23 fib1618: good night

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