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Posts: 5,028
Reply with quote  #1 
2012-04-12 16:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-04-12 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-04-12 16:01:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: welcome to Brett (unc1998) into the chat room...good to see that you made it!
2012-04-12 16:02:07 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Thanks....good to be here
2012-04-12 16:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a quick overview of how this all works
2012-04-12 16:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: basically we primarily breadth and volume analysis using three technical areas
2012-04-12 16:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the McClellan's...volume oscillators similar to On Balance Volume
2012-04-12 16:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TRIN's
2012-04-12 16:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are you a Decision Point subscriber?
2012-04-12 16:03:44 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Not yet but I will be subscribing very soon
2012-04-12 16:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good...
2012-04-12 16:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much everything we cover comes from DP
2012-04-12 16:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the McClellan data especially as it covers many indices and sectors that you don't get to work with on an everyday basis
2012-04-12 16:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be as descriptive as possible
2012-04-12 16:04:52 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: very good....I will sit back and absorb as much as I can.
2012-04-12 16:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you have any questions as we move along please don't hesitate to ask
2012-04-12 16:05:10 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Thanks Dave.
2012-04-12 16:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-04-12 16:05:38 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: No.
2012-04-12 16:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's asked generally before we start the chat
2012-04-12 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2012-04-12 16:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to deeply "oversold" levels on Tuesday
2012-04-12 16:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now moved sharply higher
2012-04-12 16:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CO = common only
2012-04-12 16:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now has a reading of -22
2012-04-12 16:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would provide the minimal expectation we were looking for on Tuesday of a strong snapback to or toward the MCO zero line
2012-04-12 16:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sharp velocity in which this has taken place
2012-04-12 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has slowed the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM on its downside progress
2012-04-12 16:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now has a reading of -84
2012-04-12 16:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO components
2012-04-12 16:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain on a cross over sell signal
2012-04-12 16:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so all in all
2012-04-12 16:11:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of the last two days was the reflex rally in which were looking for
2012-04-12 16:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the question left was
2012-04-12 16:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on how strong this reflex might turn out to be
2012-04-12 16:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like our answer came today with much of the market showing good gains
2012-04-12 16:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely it was short covering
2012-04-12 16:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we won't know that for sure until we get to the TRINs
2012-04-12 16:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2012-04-12 16:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we seem to be very much in sync right now with the commons a current reading of -22
2012-04-12 16:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2012-04-12 16:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 5% Trend (39 day EMA) has now fully snapped back to its zero line
2012-04-12 16:13:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 10% Trend has a current reading of -13
2012-04-12 16:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so our obligatory snapback to neutral can be said fulfilled and that the bears can once again put their collective thumb on the scale
2012-04-12 16:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-04-12 16:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the rate of descent is now slowing as we approach the natural support area of +250
2012-04-12 16:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe another day of firmness might be seen as things become more neutral on a short term basis
2012-04-12 16:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2012-04-12 16:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will need to take out both of the MCO tops seen at the end of March/beginning of April before they have any chance of regaining control
2012-04-12 16:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this last couple of days of reflex has probably put many of the option speculators back on their heels again
2012-04-12 16:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the ISEE reading today of 150 suggesting an abrupt switch back to the call side
2012-04-12 16:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the expectation when the market reverses sharply to fill the vacuum created by going "too far, too fast"
2012-04-12 16:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure at this point in time
2012-04-12 16:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we have created a nice foundational internal low in the market that will probably be our "keystone" as the market continues to go about the business of constructing a price low from where an advancing trend can then be built
2012-04-12 16:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ composite MCO
2012-04-12 16:19:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it too shows a sharp reversal in the last two days
2012-04-12 16:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can also see that a small blip resistance area being taken out in the process
2012-04-12 16:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this take out of this "blip" area suggests that the much of the selling is pretty much done now
2012-04-12 16:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all that's left here is the mop up of the unwilling sellers to come in to provide the sentiment necessary for a tradable low
2012-04-12 16:20:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a current reading of -18
2012-04-12 16:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still can allow for one more day of firmness
2012-04-12 16:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we move back down and challenge Tuesday's lows
2012-04-12 16:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then meet the downside price objectives given by the MCO's last week
2012-04-12 16:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...we remain defensive...looking for the turn where we can capitalize with a short position
2012-04-12 16:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX data
2012-04-12 16:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the NDX breadth MCO joined in the fun of moving sharply higher the past two days
2012-04-12 16:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now we have something here that we didn't quite have with the other MCO components
2012-04-12 16:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as both the 10% and 5% Trends are back above their zero line
2012-04-12 16:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we have the components and the MCO not in agreement, this then tells us that the market in corrective mode
2012-04-12 16:24:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not in a trending structure...either higher or lower
2012-04-12 16:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO now has a reading of +458
2012-04-12 16:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also makes it very hard for the sellers to mount up much of a multi day attack without getting ambushed by the bulls from time to time
2012-04-12 16:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although we're corrective
2012-04-12 16:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have downside price objectives still yet to be met
2012-04-12 16:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall picture is that of a pause to refresh in a continuing uptrend
2012-04-12 16:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it we'll likely see a bottom when most are looking for more decline...sort of like last November/December
2012-04-12 16:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO echo the rest of the data we've covered so far
2012-04-12 16:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that the SPX breadth MCSUM is now just below its +250 level where a pause in the decline could be seen
2012-04-12 16:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe a hesitation here for a couple of days...?
2012-04-12 16:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a ledge formation?
2012-04-12 16:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we move to or towards our primary objective of the SPX MCSUM zero line?
2012-04-12 16:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be the best news the bulls could want here
2012-04-12 16:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it will show that they, indeed, continue to control things on an intermediate term basis
2012-04-12 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the bears have, once again, lost an opportunity to really capitalize on some important technical breakdowns
2012-04-12 16:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we've been talking about for a while
2012-04-12 16:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have a whole lot of work yet to do before they'll have complete control of things
2012-04-12 16:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until this happens. as the internals keep saying, this is nothing more than corrective activity to shake the tree of the weak hands
2012-04-12 16:30:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sharp reversal as well with the OEX breadth MCO
2012-04-12 16:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with a reading of -33
2012-04-12 16:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: giving it plenty of room to continue toward its zero line snapback
2012-04-12 16:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here, however, and we see that the 5% is already just above its zero line
2012-04-12 16:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% still trailing with a -29 reading
2012-04-12 16:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remembering that the 10% component is the 19 day EMA of the OEX A/D line
2012-04-12 16:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 5% component is the 39 day EMA of this same breadth measurement
2012-04-12 16:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that the 19 is still declining...but the 39 day EMA turned up a bit
2012-04-12 16:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest that the A/D line itself is moving within a narrow range sideways over the last couple of days
2012-04-12 16:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM showing that the 19 day is still well above the 39 day EMA
2012-04-12 16:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much a pause to refresh then in what is likely a corrective bullish configuration
2012-04-12 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least minimally
2012-04-12 16:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO now has a reading of -41
2012-04-12 16:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we look at the Dow breadth MCSUM
2012-04-12 16:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we are now approaching some pattern support seen in the December period where we had our lows before beginning this current uptrend
2012-04-12 16:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price chart for a moment
2012-04-12 16:36:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also see that not only was the downside objective given last week was met precisely at the 12,750 level
2012-04-12 16:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also have fulfilled our technical snapback to what was overhead resistance during 2011
2012-04-12 16:37:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with all this in mind
2012-04-12 16:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to play with the idea that we're still in a larger trading range here
2012-04-12 16:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with 12750 as the base
2012-04-12 16:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 13250 as the ceiling on this same range
2012-04-12 16:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then would have more weight if we're able to not only move back fully to the Dow breadth MCO zero line
2012-04-12 16:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we can also take out the early April spike seen on the chart
2012-04-12 16:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would lock us into this same trading range
2012-04-12 16:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would then become a correction of "time" than that of a correction in "price"
2012-04-12 16:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while we're in the trading range
2012-04-12 16:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll likely see the concrete poured for the foundation needed as the Dow breadth MCO creates a pattern of bottoms above bottoms in its structure
2012-04-12 16:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hypothetical at this stage
2012-04-12 16:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we still need a bit more information for this to actually happened
2012-04-12 16:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll throw it out there for digestion
2012-04-12 16:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the MID price chart
2012-04-12 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the inside range day we had yesterday
2012-04-12 16:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggested a higher close today
2012-04-12 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got that
2012-04-12 16:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (so did much of the market for that matter)
2012-04-12 16:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have a reading of -23 on the MID breadth MCO
2012-04-12 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has now slowed the rate of descent in the MID breadth MCSUM right at its zero line
2012-04-12 16:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce here on the MCSUM can be expected
2012-04-12 16:43:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when you have the NDX in and around the +500 level
2012-04-12 16:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SPX at +250
2012-04-12 16:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might indeed need a little more time here before a resumption to challenge Tuesday's lows can begin
2012-04-12 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2012-04-12 16:43:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next week is April OPEX
2012-04-12 16:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market loves to eat up and spit out all of those front month speculators who bellied up to buy front month puts at low prices to have them expire worthless
2012-04-12 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...
2012-04-12 16:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could chop around now until that's done...we'll see
2012-04-12 16:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice strength in the SML breadth MCO
2012-04-12 16:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it went from what was around a -125 reading on Tuesday to a -17 today
2012-04-12 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction
2012-04-12 16:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a better example of this concept in physics than the last 5 trading days
2012-04-12 16:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SML breadth MCSUM
2012-04-12 16:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it's approaching the -250 level
2012-04-12 16:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who are new here
2012-04-12 16:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see a tendency of the MCSUM readings to find natural resistance and support areas in and around the 250 multiples you see on the chart
2012-04-12 16:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these areas act as plateaus of sorts...staging give the velocity of money a chance to catch its collective brea(d)th
2012-04-12 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see on the SML breadth MCSUM
2012-04-12 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the Dow
2012-04-12 16:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are near an area of MCSUM pattern support as well
2012-04-12 16:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that (again) of the December lows
2012-04-12 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless the bears are able to find more believers coming over the hill
2012-04-12 16:49:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's likely that we're going to have maybe another couple of days of firmness here
2012-04-12 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eventually run out of this momentum that's been created over the last couple of days
2012-04-12 16:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe sometime later next week we'll finally be able to break down again
2012-04-12 16:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with hopefully
2012-04-12 16:50:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seeing ledge or fishhook formations created on the breadth MCSUM
2012-04-12 16:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Total Market (TM) breadth MCO now has a reading of -20
2012-04-12 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can allow another day or so of follow through here
2012-04-12 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we'll see both zero line and pattern resistance keep the bulls from making any new highs in the price structure
2012-04-12 16:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-04-12 16:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got what we were looking for on Tuesday
2012-04-12 16:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a reflex rally
2012-04-12 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with good strength behind it
2012-04-12 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that the bulls are not going to just roll over and let the bears take control of the action on a intermediate term basis
2012-04-12 16:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a couple of price charts that have also reached their downside price objectives given by their MCO's last week already behind us
2012-04-12 16:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might be looking at a continuation of some sort of a trading range that will be a bit wider than what we had before
2012-04-12 16:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a look at the sectors
2012-04-12 16:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great strength seen in the XLY breadth MCO over the last couple of days
2012-04-12 16:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much so that we took out our first reaction top seen in the chart
2012-04-12 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that pretty much sets an internal, and maybe a price floor, for this sector of issues
2012-04-12 16:55:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price chart
2012-04-12 16:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be at the 44 level
2012-04-12 16:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO components
2012-04-12 16:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have confirmation here that a correction remains the best forecast here as the both are back above their zero line
2012-04-12 16:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLY breadth MCSUM is attempting to find support here in and around its +500 level with a current reading of +442
2012-04-12 16:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for the bears...this is their time to step up and paw the market lower
2012-04-12 16:58:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we're likely in a trading range given the current XLY MCSUM reading
2012-04-12 16:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO isn't as strong as the XLY data
2012-04-12 16:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this may suggest that money is starting to move out of defensive issues and back into growth areas
2012-04-12 16:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then go a long way for a trading range to we'll have to watch how things shake out over the next couple of days
2012-04-12 16:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCSUM remains well above the +500 level
2012-04-12 17:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a current reading of +654
2012-04-12 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so between the short term and intermediate term data
2012-04-12 17:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're looking at a correctional sequence here and not the start of any trending move to the downside
2012-04-12 17:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-04-12 17:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we take ruler to monitor here
2012-04-12 17:01:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that trendline support on the XLP comes in at around the 32.25 level
2012-04-12 17:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the current price at 33.63
2012-04-12 17:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can have enough of a cushion to move another 1 1/2 points lower and still be in an uptrend
2012-04-12 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where a test of this same trendline would be a healthy thing to do
2012-04-12 17:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLE
2012-04-12 17:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we still have a lot of problems for the bulls
2012-04-12 17:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only did we move to lower lows in the XLE breadth MCO on Tuesday
2012-04-12 17:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we now have a reading of -704 on the XLE breadth MCSUM
2012-04-12 17:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the good news here is that we are now highly "oversold" now
2012-04-12 17:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we're approaching the -750 level where we should see some sort of downside hesitation
2012-04-12 17:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but by moving to lower lows this week in the XLE breadth MCO and breaking below the December bottom
2012-04-12 17:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we probably won't see an end to the downtrend there until we test the November lows at the 63 level
2012-04-12 17:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, with the current price at 69.75, is about 6 points away
2012-04-12 17:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one may want to look to other areas in case we start getting an accumulation signal later on
2012-04-12 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLF
2012-04-12 17:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we tested two previous areas of yearly support in the XLF breadth MCO this week
2012-04-12 17:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both at the -150 level
2012-04-12 17:07:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important to understand
2012-04-12 17:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that when we get this "oversold" in this indicator
2012-04-12 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not so much a trigger for lower prices
2012-04-12 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the contrary
2012-04-12 17:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this provides a solid support zone for prices as majority of who are trading these issues want nothing to do with them
2012-04-12 17:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last time this happened, of course, we saw this sector rally 28% in 4 months
2012-04-12 17:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a bad trade
2012-04-12 17:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a little love here
2012-04-12 17:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the bears can't generate any price decay
2012-04-12 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the bigger price pattern might be setting up for many know today as a "cup and handle" formation
2012-04-12 17:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the old days we just called it a "rounding bottom" formation
2012-04-12 17:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either way
2012-04-12 17:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are very strong bottoming patterns
2012-04-12 17:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll keep a watchful eye on this
2012-04-12 17:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since no one really wants to own these issues
2012-04-12 17:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and haven't wanted to since 2008
2012-04-12 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you learn in this business
2012-04-12 17:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that eventually every area has a turn in leading the pack
2012-04-12 17:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether up or down...this never changes
2012-04-12 17:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at BAC
2012-04-12 17:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down as low as $5
2012-04-12 17:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nobody gave the stock a chance
2012-04-12 17:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boom...a double in 3 months
2012-04-12 17:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: examples like this is the reason why you have to leave your emotional biases at the door before you trade
2012-04-12 17:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...there are fundamental things that are important to know
2012-04-12 17:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but everything has to be put in a proper context
2012-04-12 17:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: history shows us time and time again that the best time to buy is the time in which no one wants to
2012-04-12 17:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the same holds true on when the best time to sell is
2012-04-12 17:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes, in our "I've got to know right now" world we tend to forget this kind of thing
2012-04-12 17:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we talk about it...but never act on it when it's presented
2012-04-12 17:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our job as technicians
2012-04-12 17:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to beat the market at its own game
2012-04-12 17:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our competition is not on a message board
2012-04-12 17:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or someone who writes a market letter
2012-04-12 17:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or what we hear on the 6:00 news
2012-04-12 17:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market doesn't care one iota about what's being said and felt
2012-04-12 17:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all it knows is...
2012-04-12 17:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how much money is there for investment
2012-04-12 17:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and whether this money is going to be exposed to the market or not
2012-04-12 17:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's it
2012-04-12 17:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market knows everything we do
2012-04-12 17:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and much more that we don't
2012-04-12 17:16:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the best thing to do is...
2012-04-12 17:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just follow the money
2012-04-12 17:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and leave the details on why for someone else to figure out
2012-04-12 17:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the XLF data for a moment
2012-04-12 17:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both of the XLF breadth components are now on either side of its zero line
2012-04-12 17:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could see a pause in this reflex rally as soon as tomorrow
2012-04-12 17:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a slight pullback as well
2012-04-12 17:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we still have a bit more room to decline on the XLF breadth MCSUM as it's just above the +250 level with a reading of +377
2012-04-12 17:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe a day or two of back and fill might be noted in this sector before we complete the snapback to the MCO zero line next week
2012-04-12 17:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO has also powered higher over the last couple of days
2012-04-12 17:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also took out a small blip resistance area as well
2012-04-12 17:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this pretty much puts a cap on any further downside deterioration with this sectors internals
2012-04-12 17:20:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point
2012-04-12 17:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we break above these "blip" areas
2012-04-12 17:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it solidifies the spike bottom just created
2012-04-12 17:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that it's a very low probability that it won't be taken out...if even challenged
2012-04-12 17:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can now say that this MCO has created a "flag" point in the pattern
2012-04-12 17:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a maximum amount of downside momentum
2012-04-12 17:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where we can compare future bottoms
2012-04-12 17:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we refer to it as a "flag"
2012-04-12 17:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like one puts on a mountain peak
2012-04-12 17:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as you move lower from the peak
2012-04-12 17:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can then compare where you are to where you were in the pattern
2012-04-12 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very impressive moves in all of the MCO's here
2012-04-12 17:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but just we talked about with the Monday/Tuesday sell off
2012-04-12 17:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this too is too far, too fast
2012-04-12 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're not likely finished digesting and we could see some near term weakness
2012-04-12 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what our next objective though is something many of us know very well
2012-04-12 17:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the time it will take to build "texture" to the pattern
2012-04-12 17:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "texture" happens with bottoms above bottoms
2012-04-12 17:24:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or even tops beneath tops
2012-04-12 17:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the greater the texture you have
2012-04-12 17:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the greater the control on the side who's building this same textural formation
2012-04-12 17:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO has also raced from a reading of about -140 to today's reading of -17
2012-04-12 17:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's quite a move in anyone's book
2012-04-12 17:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and provides the analytical evidence that not only are the bulls still have a lot of control here
2012-04-12 17:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more to the point
2012-04-12 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears continue to lack the quality of sellers they will need to shift the tide from up to down
2012-04-12 17:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, for example, we were only to move back to the -75 ro -100 level after moving to deeply "oversold"
2012-04-12 17:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would had shown that the bears had more conviction in their directional bias
2012-04-12 17:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or more to the point
2012-04-12 17:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was little in the way of buyers who were agreeing with the idea that stocks were either undervalued fairly valued
2012-04-12 17:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're not seeing this at this time
2012-04-12 17:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to trend in one direction or the other
2012-04-12 17:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you must have the greater majority of money flow leading prices in this same direction
2012-04-12 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without this leadership
2012-04-12 17:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in either direction
2012-04-12 17:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you chop
2012-04-12 17:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the two sides battle for control
2012-04-12 17:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up until the 29th of March
2012-04-12 17:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls continued to support enough of this leadership to push prices higher on less and less momentum
2012-04-12 17:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that momentum became almost non existent, and from there, the market was vulnerable toward an opposing force taking control
2012-04-12 17:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we saw this happen last week...into the beginning of this week with the climactic behavior of Tuesday's trading
2012-04-12 17:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since there's no one else to sell...
2012-04-12 17:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices start to rise...shorts begin to cover...traders begin to buy...and this is why we can get these "all of sudden" pushes to the upside like we saw yesterday and today
2012-04-12 17:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then...just as's gone
2012-04-12 17:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we trade sideways
2012-04-12 17:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCSUM continues to look a little weak here
2012-04-12 17:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it has double support just below it at the -250 level where we see MCSUM pattern support from the December lows
2012-04-12 17:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears to really pick up the baton and run here
2012-04-12 17:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will need to break these same December MCSUM lows
2012-04-12 17:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we all know
2012-04-12 17:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we break areas of support or resistance
2012-04-12 17:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we tend to do it and leave little doubt
2012-04-12 17:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2012-04-12 17:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we broke trendline support on many breadth MCSUM's on Monday
2012-04-12 17:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would had been Friday if the market was open
2012-04-12 17:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here's the real problem
2012-04-12 17:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a break of support as significant as this was
2012-04-12 17:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears continue to have a hard time in convincing the majority that they are right
2012-04-12 17:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would not expect a hesitation so close to the breakdown if the trend was reversing
2012-04-12 17:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as we've been saying for a while
2012-04-12 17:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really up to the sellers here to belly up to the bar and show some backbone
2012-04-12 17:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if they don't
2012-04-12 17:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will again run out of time and sponsorship
2012-04-12 17:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll likely have another December 2011 type low
2012-04-12 17:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO also showed some amazing strength
2012-04-12 17:37:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like a tsunami
2012-04-12 17:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the water pulls back from the shore
2012-04-12 17:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then rushes back to shore with the same amplitude
2012-04-12 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sometimes the same velocity
2012-04-12 17:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapbacks complete on the XLB MCO components as well
2012-04-12 17:38:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLB breadth MCSUM is now just below the +250 level
2012-04-12 17:39:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2012-04-12 17:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have reviewed many times in here
2012-04-12 17:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very difficult for one side to take control of the market pattern structure if the intermediate term trend, as measured by the MCSUM, isn't on their side to help them out
2012-04-12 17:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we concluded on Tuesday
2012-04-12 17:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with all of the volume MCSUM's well above their zero lines
2012-04-12 17:40:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the majority above the +500 level
2012-04-12 17:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is was near impossible for a "crash like" event to occur
2012-04-12 17:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though you wouldn't have known in with the sentiment on Tuesday
2012-04-12 17:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO has also saw a sharp reversal
2012-04-12 17:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not surprisingly
2012-04-12 17:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is happening as the XLK breadth MCSUM is right at the +250 level
2012-04-12 17:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe a day or two of pause would be indicated here as well...maybe some back and fill
2012-04-12 17:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCO has a reading of -15
2012-04-12 17:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while both the components, and the XLU breadth MCSUM, are right at their zero lines
2012-04-12 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're pretty much neutral there...where one side can now take control of the action
2012-04-12 17:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-04-12 17:43:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a very nice rebound for the bulls
2012-04-12 17:43:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they flexed their collective muscles in the face of what was being referred to a "dire consequences"
2012-04-12 17:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same fundamental excuses that have been used before all for the last 9 months continue to control the markets sentiment
2012-04-12 17:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far
2012-04-12 17:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have seen so many times over the last 6 months
2012-04-12 17:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers start piling on too quickly and flush the system of weak hands
2012-04-12 17:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which pretty much is what we usually see in strong uptrends
2012-04-12 17:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2012-04-12 17:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CVI's are now neutral after suggesting a price bottom on Tuesday
2012-04-12 17:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain "oversold"
2012-04-12 17:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the VTO's all comfortably below their zero lines except for the Dow which is now "oversold"
2012-04-12 17:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: together this would then suggest that we might get a snapback to the zero line on the VTO's before we see an all out challenge of Tuesday's lows
2012-04-12 17:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .43
2012-04-12 17:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's how you spell "short covering"
2012-04-12 17:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.09
2012-04-12 17:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still "oversold"
2012-04-12 17:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here it appears we'll probably see some choppy behavior into next weeks OPEX
2012-04-12 17:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .64
2012-04-12 17:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.01
2012-04-12 17:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally "oversold"
2012-04-12 17:48:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears
2012-04-12 17:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will need to get these Open 10 readings to at least the .90 neutral level
2012-04-12 17:49:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or they're going to continue to have a hard time testing the March lows
2012-04-12 17:49:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .60
2012-04-12 17:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.06
2012-04-12 17:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-04-12 17:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have the ball...3rd down at 5
2012-04-12 17:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears seem to have lost their downside momentum for the time being
2012-04-12 17:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's going to take some time for the bulls to pull enough of a constrictive sequence together before we're likely to see new highs
2012-04-12 17:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...chop
2012-04-12 17:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this may continue into the middle part of next week
2012-04-12 17:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2012-04-12 17:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit and runs can be played both ways for now
2012-04-12 17:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the use of intraday oscillators will be of great benefit for the time being for day traders
2012-04-12 17:52:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for others...we remain cash...waiting for more information.
2012-04-12 17:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-04-12 17:52:23 [Message] tracca -> Chat: THANK YOU KINDLY
2012-04-12 17:53:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always a pleasure
2012-04-12 17:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: depending on how things look on Tuesday
2012-04-12 17:54:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might begin to look at the sectors to see where money is flowing - in or out
2012-04-12 17:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and begin the process of making our to do lists
2012-04-12 17:54:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the blueprint for now is for the market to be choppy and volatile over next couple of days
2012-04-12 17:54:57 [Message] tracca -> Chat: ISEE came 150 today
2012-04-12 17:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep
2012-04-12 17:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so because of this
2012-04-12 17:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might have down close tomorrow
2012-04-12 17:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many call buyers
2012-04-12 17:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the speculators are trying desperately now to be on the right side
2012-04-12 17:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday it was down
2012-04-12 17:55:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but's up
2012-04-12 17:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as mentioned earlier...
2012-04-12 17:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: their money will be soon parted
2012-04-12 17:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you don't have a feel here for the market
2012-04-12 17:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you really should stay away until we settle down a bit
2012-04-12 17:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..big thunderstorm here
2012-04-12 17:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I'm going to shut down
2012-04-12 17:56:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2012-04-12 17:56:59 [Message] tracca -> Chat: you too
2012-04-12 17:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things look on Tuesday
2012-04-12 17:57:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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