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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-04-10 16:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-04-10 16:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-04-10 16:00:58 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Hi Dave
2012-04-10 16:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the lesson here is...
2012-04-10 16:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always respect a technical breakdown
2012-04-10 16:01:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: respect
2012-04-10 16:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and always respect a price target given by the MCO
2012-04-10 16:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-04-10 16:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-04-10 16:02:55 [Message] hkk -> Chat: I'm not clear on how you get the price target from the MCO
2012-04-10 16:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a matter of comparisons
2012-04-10 16:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that prices can not move in one direction or the other without money moving in advance of this same direction
2012-04-10 16:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in early March
2012-04-10 16:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a sell off that created a "flag" on the MCO...an extreme point of reference
2012-04-10 16:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that flag coincided with the lows in prices
2012-04-10 16:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the case of the SPX
2012-04-10 16:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was around the 1350 level
2012-04-10 16:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we broke below the rising bottoms line of the MCO last Wednesday and moved to new lows
2012-04-10 16:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this gave us a target of at least challenging that same early March low
2012-04-10 16:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not to break it
2012-04-10 16:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to break it
2012-04-10 16:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would need to see the MCO move below this same March spike low
2012-04-10 16:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in which we probably did today
2012-04-10 16:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case
2012-04-10 16:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we look back in time to see where the next likely target will be
2012-04-10 16:05:57 [Message] hkk -> Chat: okay, i see
2012-04-10 16:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but does it make sense?
2012-04-10 16:06:08 [Message] hkk -> Chat: yes
2012-04-10 16:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2012-04-10 16:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we're doing here is monitoring the velocity of money
2012-04-10 16:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO provides us with the speed quotient needed to travel a specific distance
2012-04-10 16:07:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM provides us with a visual chart of this same progression
2012-04-10 16:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take yesterday for example
2012-04-10 16:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we broke below the rising bottoms line on the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-04-10 16:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the amount of energy to do this would then create a path for prices to follow with the same importance
2012-04-10 16:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got that today
2012-04-10 16:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth will lead price by about 1-2 days on average
2012-04-10 16:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so though many were looking for a bounce higher today
2012-04-10 16:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when that failed to materialize by the 2nd hour
2012-04-10 16:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this same significant break of trend on the MCSUM started to be felt as an after shock would be felt with an earthquake
2012-04-10 16:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the most important thing here though
2012-04-10 16:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we played the uptrend of the last 3 months almost perfectly
2012-04-10 16:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we moved in when money moved in
2012-04-10 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and stayed around just long enough to squeeze out as much as could out of this same thrust
2012-04-10 16:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what was missed (if one can say such a thing)
2012-04-10 16:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: provided our exit a week ago Friday and Monday before things started to fall apart
2012-04-10 16:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-04-10 16:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our focus remains on when the likelihood of a bottom may be seen
2012-04-10 16:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime
2012-04-10 16:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain defensive
2012-04-10 16:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2012-04-10 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today provided a nice entry point of a reflex rally
2012-04-10 16:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should see that as soon as tomorrow
2012-04-10 16:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless what we see tonight tells us otherwise
2012-04-10 16:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any other questions or comments??
2012-04-10 16:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then lets jump right in and see what we have to work with
2012-04-10 16:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ow!
2012-04-10 16:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I haven't seen these charts since the weekend
2012-04-10 16:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..great...we have lots to talk about tonight...let's get going
2012-04-10 16:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued to accelerate lower today
2012-04-10 16:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking support last Wednesday
2012-04-10 16:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now taken out the early March lows in the process
2012-04-10 16:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this, and if the composite agrees, we will generate new downside price objectives for the NYA
2012-04-10 16:14:48 [Message] gelf -> Chat: how about challenging the November lows on the mco
2012-04-10 16:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know yet...
2012-04-10 16:15:01 [Message] gelf -> Chat: it did it
2012-04-10 16:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not there yet :)
2012-04-10 16:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have to use the composite for price objectives
2012-04-10 16:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me a moment
2012-04-10 16:15:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE MCO 10% component is now highly "oversold"
2012-04-10 16:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is in need of some sort of snapback near term
2012-04-10 16:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the near term problems
2012-04-10 16:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2012-04-10 16:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM will be moving down and through its zero line tomorrow no matter what happens
2012-04-10 16:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and during times like this
2012-04-10 16:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is where some accelerated weakness can enter the picture as the balance of buyers and sellers shifts to the "dark side"
2012-04-10 16:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2012-04-10 16:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the November lows of this MCO are important in the context that if this is broken
2012-04-10 16:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can then move back within this same range over the intermediate term time frame
2012-04-10 16:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a break of the August lows from last year providing new downside targets on a longer term basis
2012-04-10 16:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now
2012-04-10 16:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically
2012-04-10 16:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see some sort of reflex attempt by the bulls as soon as tomorrow
2012-04-10 16:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE breadth composite MCO
2012-04-10 16:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we have broken below the early March lows
2012-04-10 16:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which now provides us with new downside price objectives
2012-04-10 16:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could be the December lows
2012-04-10 16:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our bigger problem here is
2012-04-10 16:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weakness of this broader based index during the recent 3 month rally could imply a much weaker picture than what liquidity levels may be suggesting here
2012-04-10 16:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2012-04-10 16:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYA has already broken below the early March price levels where something like the SPX has not
2012-04-10 16:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-04-10 16:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this business
2012-04-10 16:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always better to go with the majority than that of the minority
2012-04-10 16:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to respect this broader based weakness as something that needs our attention moving forward
2012-04-10 16:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and leave the other areas of bullish behavior, such as the SML and the NDX, on the back burner for now
2012-04-10 16:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the things I learned in this business long ago
2012-04-10 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was that
2012-04-10 16:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there can be times in which secondary and/or stock issues that don't have a track record can move to higher highs without the benefit of the large caps confirming
2012-04-10 16:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one example was that of the Value Line index in 1968
2012-04-10 16:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was at new highs, but this wasn't confirmed by the Dow
2012-04-10 16:25:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from that we had a 14 year correctional pattern develop
2012-04-10 16:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although it's not likely that we have a top of significance
2012-04-10 16:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to respect what we have to work with and leave any "what if's" for those more suited for that kind of work
2012-04-10 16:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2012-04-10 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bounce tomorrow will be telling
2012-04-10 16:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would instruct us on whether the bulls still have enough strength here to pull up just before hitting the ground
2012-04-10 16:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYSE breadth MCSUM still above the +250 level
2012-04-10 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 10% still nicely "oversold"
2012-04-10 16:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't seem like anything more than a situation where the market is playing a game of "catch up"
2012-04-10 16:28:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: catch up to what?
2012-04-10 16:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know
2012-04-10 16:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the feel here
2012-04-10 16:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my instinct
2012-04-10 16:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggests a bounce...
2012-04-10 16:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISEE came in at 63
2012-04-10 16:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so lots of specs buying puts today
2012-04-10 16:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as their courage was brazen after this mornings failure to bounce
2012-04-10 16:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's keep looking
2012-04-10 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a tough call here for downside targets because the previous trend was so strong
2012-04-10 16:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there was little in the way of hesitation points to use as a comparable gauge
2012-04-10 16:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2012-04-10 16:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to challenge, and in many cases, break below the early March lows during this sequence
2012-04-10 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember
2012-04-10 16:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break is just that...a break
2012-04-10 16:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't necessary mean we'll have follow through after that
2012-04-10 16:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term problem is
2012-04-10 16:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have accelerated so fast that we don't have a good cadence here to work
2012-04-10 16:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...this is on a near term (tomorrow...Thursday) basis
2012-04-10 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for our trading
2012-04-10 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless one took a short position under the "defensive" umbrella from last week
2012-04-10 16:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no way to chase this now
2012-04-10 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the prudent move would be to wait for the bounce
2012-04-10 16:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: measure its strength or weakness
2012-04-10 16:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then play the downside since we now have these same downside price targets to work with
2012-04-10 16:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2012-04-10 16:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any bounce here
2012-04-10 16:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be that of a reflex
2012-04-10 16:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and reflex patterns have a tendency of snapping back to or toward the area of the technical breakdowns
2012-04-10 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then roll over and have our next wave of selling commence after that
2012-04-10 16:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like jumping on a trampoline from a roof top
2012-04-10 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you bounce very high, but then lose momentum, and fall again
2012-04-10 16:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the NASDAQ
2012-04-10 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the lower lows that were created today on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-04-10 16:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless the November lows are taken out
2012-04-10 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the near term plan here is for a snapback to or toward the 3050 level seen on the 21 day price chart
2012-04-10 16:37:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the level in which we broke support yesterday
2012-04-10 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then an all out challenge of the early March lows
2012-04-10 16:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2012-04-10 16:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be that decline in which, more than likely, AAPL will enter the picture
2012-04-10 16:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should help build the negative sentiment that will be necessary for this same early March low to hold
2012-04-10 16:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know...sounds backwards
2012-04-10 16:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you need as much negativity at points of support in order to maintain these same price levels
2012-04-10 16:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also interesting to note
2012-04-10 16:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the March lows are about the same area as our snapback point of the highs of 2011
2012-04-10 16:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a lot of things to consider here
2012-04-10 16:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2012-04-10 16:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it "looks like" we've perceptively broke below the rising bottoms line on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM today
2012-04-10 16:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at my combo chart...one moment
2012-04-10 16:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...we closed below it today
2012-04-10 16:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more moment
2012-04-10 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: excuse my French
2012-04-10 16:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the A/D and U/D charts are butt ugly which is probably a good sign of a bottom of some sort
2012-04-10 16:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2012-04-10 16:41:43 [Message] gelf -> Chat: fib, a question if you don't mind on the NYSE
2012-04-10 16:41:57 [Message] gelf -> Chat: OK?
2012-04-10 16:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line is entitled to a snapback to or towards the (OK) the 5% Trend in the next couple of days
2012-04-10 16:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anytime David...open forum here
2012-04-10 16:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll continue while waiting
2012-04-10 16:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a -93 reading on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-04-10 16:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is highly "oversold"
2012-04-10 16:43:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where a bounce is likely to occur
2012-04-10 16:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the near term problem here...
2012-04-10 16:44:06 [Message] gelf -> Chat: the price on the NYA not only took out the early march lows, but overlapped the price from the October highs or what some have considered to be wave 1.....which means 4 overlapped 1.  would you conclude that this is now a corrective structure possibly ending the sequence of the march of '09 lows and a resumption of the downtrend that started in Oct '07
2012-04-10 16:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price wise?
2012-04-10 16:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott aside for a moment
2012-04-10 16:45:12 [Message] gelf -> Chat: internals what need a tad more work....but they allow for that as a possibility for decent odds
2012-04-10 16:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lack of pattern confirmation with the sub set indices is a problem with that corrective idea
2012-04-10 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..
2012-04-10 16:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look for a moment
2012-04-10 16:45:51 [Message] gelf -> Chat: we dropped 1000 summation points on most indices in 2 months
2012-04-10 16:46:08 [Message] gelf -> Chat: and are below zero in a few
2012-04-10 16:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: means nothing in your context
2012-04-10 16:46:26 [Message] gelf -> Chat: i didn't complete my context
2012-04-10 16:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continue...sorry
2012-04-10 16:46:53 [Message] gelf -> Chat: the rally up and the high summations we saw, was the equal and opposite reaction from the end of '08 levels
2012-04-10 16:47:10 [Message] gelf -> Chat: where what we are seeing is an equal and opposite reaction from that extreme
2012-04-10 16:48:18 [Message] gelf -> Chat: the overlapping price structure is bothersome, unless we are seeing an ending diagonal, i don't see a way to label this as any kind of impulsive structure
2012-04-10 16:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless it's a series
2012-04-10 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-04-10 16:48:42 [Message] gelf -> Chat: i have it as a series
2012-04-10 16:48:49 [Message] gelf -> Chat: a double zig zag
2012-04-10 16:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's not a series
2012-04-10 16:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the sense of an impulse
2012-04-10 16:49:12 [Message] gelf -> Chat: multiple 1's and 2's?
2012-04-10 16:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2012-04-10 16:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the thing in which everybody conveniently forgets about
2012-04-10 16:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you have higher highs in A/D line
2012-04-10 16:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are impulsing
2012-04-10 16:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you lower lows in the A/D line
2012-04-10 16:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are impulsing
2012-04-10 16:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: corrective waves occur because there isn't enough money to substantiate the price action
2012-04-10 16:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-04-10 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oscillators have different meanings based on their function
2012-04-10 16:51:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since all of them have some sort of momentum basis in their analysis
2012-04-10 16:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what they're measuring becomes important as to separate one tool from another
2012-04-10 16:51:51 [Message] gelf -> Chat: from a birds eye view, from march of '09 i see three rallies each of which lasted a smaller time frame than the former and each rallying less than the former
2012-04-10 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from a birds eye view
2012-04-10 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can see a large head and shoulders top formation in the NYA!
2012-04-10 16:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is quizzical market, to be sure
2012-04-10 16:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how can every index, with the exception of the Mid Caps, move to higher highs in this sequence
2012-04-10 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not the parent marketplace?
2012-04-10 16:53:30 [Message] gelf -> Chat: well a full challenge of November lows on many mco's, summations going negative on a few where it was only a short time ago the market couldn't sustain a decline for more than 15 minutes......we have gotten to the point where summations going negative and we have 5 down days in a row
2012-04-10 16:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't think of a time when this has happened
2012-04-10 16:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: means nothing
2012-04-10 16:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you assuming if A=B than C=D
2012-04-10 16:54:08 [Message] gelf -> Chat: overlapping price
2012-04-10 16:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a theory
2012-04-10 16:54:16 [Message] gelf -> Chat: and internals looking awful
2012-04-10 16:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually do at a bottom
2012-04-10 16:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-04-10 16:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look
2012-04-10 16:54:32 [Message] gelf -> Chat: as do they look good at a top
2012-04-10 16:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not fighting you on this
2012-04-10 16:54:41 [Message] gelf -> Chat: and they did
2012-04-10 16:54:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market continued to rally even after they topped
2012-04-10 16:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM moved down some 700 data points
2012-04-10 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2012-04-10 16:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are correcting excesses
2012-04-10 16:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is nothing
2012-04-10 16:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AT THIS TIME
2012-04-10 16:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to promote anything more than that
2012-04-10 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2012-04-10 16:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you may be right
2012-04-10 16:56:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the physics isn't there yet
2012-04-10 16:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what has happened though
2012-04-10 16:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we had a technical breakdown last Wednesday
2012-04-10 16:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the odds suggested that the bulls were in a good position to re-initiate the trend
2012-04-10 16:56:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the fuel didn't come
2012-04-10 16:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have been steadfastly vigilant on this point since mid February
2012-04-10 16:57:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we had engines shut down at the end of the month
2012-04-10 16:57:29 [Message] gelf -> Chat: well, as you like to put it, the generals were miles ahead and remain ahead of their cavalry
2012-04-10 16:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to expect the momentum of the move to continue
2012-04-10 16:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but without any more fuel
2012-04-10 16:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were only likely to reach the upside objective given by the MCO in January of around 1440 (+ or - 2%)
2012-04-10 16:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is also true
2012-04-10 16:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the generals are...well...I'm not so sure
2012-04-10 16:58:30 [Message] gelf -> Chat: not 1 stock with 1000 price target, now there is three, sounds eerily similar to another time of euphoria
2012-04-10 16:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have to look
2012-04-10 16:58:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not if they have the earnings to back up the price
2012-04-10 16:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is also a float issue with these same stocks
2012-04-10 16:59:13 [Message] gelf -> Chat: right, companies buying back shares at all time highs
2012-04-10 16:59:16 [Message] gelf -> Chat: great use of cash
2012-04-10 16:59:17 [Message] gelf -> Chat: lol
2012-04-10 16:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't assume just because a stock is priced out of the majorities pocketbook that it can't go any higher or its not fairly valued as such
2012-04-10 16:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at Berkshire!
2012-04-10 16:59:33 [Message] gelf -> Chat: I'm not assuming
2012-04-10 16:59:38 [Message] gelf -> Chat: just part of the picture
2012-04-10 16:59:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are
2012-04-10 16:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2012-04-10 16:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you made a statement
2012-04-10 16:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that because there are 3 stocks approaching $1000
2012-04-10 17:00:02 [Message] gelf -> Chat: my statement was that it has an eerily similar feel
2012-04-10 17:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that they are somehow
2012-04-10 17:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to what?
2012-04-10 17:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2000?
2012-04-10 17:00:13 [Message] gelf -> Chat: yep
2012-04-10 17:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no
2012-04-10 17:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what seems similar to that is...
2012-04-10 17:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having some company, who hasn't even come to market, go out an buy some company who makes an app for a iPhone or iPad, with 12 employees, been in business less than 2 years, and has NO EARNINGS, and buy them out for ONE BILLION DOLLARS!!!!!!!
2012-04-10 17:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THAT is 2000
2012-04-10 17:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but back in 2000
2012-04-10 17:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the majority of stocks at that time had on the NASDAQ had...NO EARNINGS!!!
2012-04-10 17:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Apple does
2012-04-10 17:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Priceline does
2012-04-10 17:02:26 [Message] gelf -> Chat: cisco was the trillion dollar company
2012-04-10 17:02:31 [Message] gelf -> Chat: they had earnings
2012-04-10 17:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so was MSFT
2012-04-10 17:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the majority was not
2012-04-10 17:02:47 [Message] gelf -> Chat: qcom was the 1000 price target
2012-04-10 17:02:50 [Message] gelf -> Chat: they had earnings
2012-04-10 17:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I mean 99.99% of them
2012-04-10 17:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not with a PE of 250!!
2012-04-10 17:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: come on David!
2012-04-10 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: apples and pears
2012-04-10 17:03:26 [Message] gelf -> Chat: well, i think some lessons have been learned in terms of valuation
2012-04-10 17:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about the greatest disaster of them all..PALM?
2012-04-10 17:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-04-10 17:03:52 [Message] gelf -> Chat: sunw, orcl, intel, msft, csco, etc....all lost 70% of their market cap
2012-04-10 17:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2012-04-10 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they did...
2012-04-10 17:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that was a different time
2012-04-10 17:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you sounding like Bob Precther now
2012-04-10 17:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-04-10 17:04:23 [Message] gelf -> Chat: yeah, they owned their respective markets, just like apple, except, apple owns it bigger
2012-04-10 17:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the same
2012-04-10 17:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not even close
2012-04-10 17:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2012-04-10 17:04:47 [Message] gelf -> Chat: time well tell, lol
2012-04-10 17:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there isn't anything out there AT THIS TIME to suggest anything like what happened in 2001
2012-04-10 17:05:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're worried about things that are just supposition
2012-04-10 17:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THAT will kill your ability to maximize your profits
2012-04-10 17:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: none of this matters
2012-04-10 17:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can trade either way
2012-04-10 17:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up
2012-04-10 17:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down
2012-04-10 17:06:05 [Message] gelf -> Chat: nah, but its fun to talk about, sorry for the interruption
2012-04-10 17:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sideways
2012-04-10 17:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem
2012-04-10 17:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: deep breath please
2012-04-10 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything is fine here
2012-04-10 17:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be honest
2012-04-10 17:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we (as a species) tend to talk about these kind of things when we have some sort of capitulation
2012-04-10 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2012-04-10 17:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could be right
2012-04-10 17:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the focus here is discipline
2012-04-10 17:07:23 [Message] gelf -> Chat: well, i know tons of bears that covered today and i saw an equity put/call at .69
2012-04-10 17:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: picking the right times to enter a trade for maximum gain
2012-04-10 17:07:31 [Message] gelf -> Chat: don't really see any capitulation
2012-04-10 17:07:34 [Message] gelf -> Chat: just bottom pickers
2012-04-10 17:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the numbers say opposite
2012-04-10 17:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many put buyers today
2012-04-10 17:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one covered
2012-04-10 17:08:04 [Message] gelf -> Chat: how do we get put/call at .69?
2012-04-10 17:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might FEEL that
2012-04-10 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the numbers don't lie
2012-04-10 17:08:20 [Message] gelf -> Chat: no dave, put/call at .69
2012-04-10 17:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know
2012-04-10 17:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about insurance?
2012-04-10 17:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing is all that simple
2012-04-10 17:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower VIX's don't mean complacency
2012-04-10 17:09:22 [Message] gelf -> Chat: only thing talking heads talk about is that we were overdue for a correction, with the "guarantees" of new highs to follow
2012-04-10 17:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-04-10 17:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who!?
2012-04-10 17:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who is saying this?
2012-04-10 17:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: name one
2012-04-10 17:09:47 [Message] gelf -> Chat: 99% of cnbc participants
2012-04-10 17:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really?
2012-04-10 17:09:55 [Message] gelf -> Chat: yep
2012-04-10 17:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: haven't heard that
2012-04-10 17:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I only hear things up until 10:00
2012-04-10 17:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2012-04-10 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it all depends on who the producers wish to interview
2012-04-10 17:10:40 [Message] gelf -> Chat: every day for weeks Dave
2012-04-10 17:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are emotional creatures as well
2012-04-10 17:10:42 [Message] gelf -> Chat: all day
2012-04-10 17:10:44 [Message] gelf -> Chat: every day
2012-04-10 17:10:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not true
2012-04-10 17:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sorry
2012-04-10 17:10:53 [Message] gelf -> Chat: fast money guys went long yesterday
2012-04-10 17:10:57 [Message] gelf -> Chat: bottom pickin
2012-04-10 17:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have been harping on why this market can continue to go higher
2012-04-10 17:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: come on!
2012-04-10 17:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not watching the same channel!!
2012-04-10 17:11:33 [Message] gelf -> Chat: yes Dave.....historically low pe's, etc.....perhaps you should watch past 10am
2012-04-10 17:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're watching too much garbage
2012-04-10 17:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it means nothing
2012-04-10 17:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it distracts you
2012-04-10 17:12:08 [Message] gelf -> Chat: that's what they say.....i don't make my decisions based on that....don't worry
2012-04-10 17:12:09 [Message] gelf -> Chat: lol
2012-04-10 17:12:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all for those who have nothing to do than to listen to other talk about how good they are
2012-04-10 17:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I dare you to stop watching
2012-04-10 17:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-04-10 17:12:32 [Message] gelf -> Chat: or being alone in a large office.........when I'm not on phone with clients
2012-04-10 17:12:34 [Message] gelf -> Chat: it's there
2012-04-10 17:12:39 [Message] gelf -> Chat: while on the computer
2012-04-10 17:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turn it off
2012-04-10 17:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't need it
2012-04-10 17:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have a computer screen with charts
2012-04-10 17:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all you need to trade
2012-04-10 17:13:06 [Message] gelf -> Chat: its like reality t.v. i can do with out it, i enjoy it, i don't watch for decisions on trading to be made
2012-04-10 17:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: put on Ozzie and Harriet
2012-04-10 17:13:27 [Message] gelf -> Chat: i like to hear our buddy art
2012-04-10 17:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's move on..unless you have something else?
2012-04-10 17:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, no?
2012-04-10 17:13:52 [Message] gelf -> Chat: I'm good
2012-04-10 17:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great!
2012-04-10 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's move to the NDX
2012-04-10 17:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...with the NDX breadth MCSUM still above the +500 level
2012-04-10 17:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have a mighty big job still ahead of them just so they can get to the zero line
2012-04-10 17:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but near term
2012-04-10 17:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like our double top trigger that we've been talking about now for 2 weeks was triggered today
2012-04-10 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is where a stock like AAPL or Priceline will start to feel the pinch now
2012-04-10 17:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what a stock aapl is
2012-04-10 17:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really is amazing
2012-04-10 17:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only a simple reversal today
2012-04-10 17:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 7
2012-04-10 17:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with support still well below at 600
2012-04-10 17:17:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand
2012-04-10 17:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: PCLN had a strong reversal today
2012-04-10 17:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still looks corrective
2012-04-10 17:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and GOOG down only .63 percent
2012-04-10 17:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-04-10 17:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one wouldn't think that the secondaries would hold up here if this was a major top
2012-04-10 17:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they are the cream stocks of that bunch
2012-04-10 17:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2012-04-10 17:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since everyone seems to have a piece of the Facebook IPO coming this May
2012-04-10 17:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't it be in their best interest to keep things from falling apart?
2012-04-10 17:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just saying :)
2012-04-10 17:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-04-10 17:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look for a challenge of the 2600 level now on the NDX
2012-04-10 17:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...
2012-04-10 17:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern sure doesn't suggest a major top here
2012-04-10 17:20:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a pause
2012-04-10 17:20:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: target of that double top is close to there, no?
2012-04-10 17:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know
2012-04-10 17:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a loss of momentum on the double top
2012-04-10 17:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it didn't really show a great deal of divergence
2012-04-10 17:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one has to wonder though
2012-04-10 17:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how much of a footprint AAPL has in all this
2012-04-10 17:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember
2012-04-10 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO gives us our price targets
2012-04-10 17:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM gives us more in the area of the time it will take to get there
2012-04-10 17:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2012-04-10 17:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would say weeks
2012-04-10 17:22:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe the end of April
2012-04-10 17:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bounce here is the key
2012-04-10 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it occurs
2012-04-10 17:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how we bounce
2012-04-10 17:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from that
2012-04-10 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can make a better blueprint to follow
2012-04-10 17:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is always a problem of moving "too far, too fast"
2012-04-10 17:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like
2012-04-10 17:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we knew there had been cracks in the dam
2012-04-10 17:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one of the cracks gave way on Wednesday, another on Friday (Monday)
2012-04-10 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can the rest of the dam be saved?
2012-04-10 17:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know here to be honest
2012-04-10 17:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we are literally all over the place between indices
2012-04-10 17:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in times like that
2012-04-10 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must always fall back on the parent...the NYSE data
2012-04-10 17:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that MCSUM remains above its zero line
2012-04-10 17:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX
2012-04-10 17:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we broke below the +500 level yesterday
2012-04-10 17:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not too surprising here as well that we saw solid follow through after having broke this important level
2012-04-10 17:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2012-04-10 17:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the +500 level is our "escape velocity" level
2012-04-10 17:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any break back below this level allows gravity to have greater influence on the ability for the Shuttle to remain in orbit
2012-04-10 17:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the near term focus in this respect
2012-04-10 17:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is whether we glide down as gravity (the bear market default) takes a greater hold?
2012-04-10 17:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or do we crash?
2012-04-10 17:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess that depends on the SPEED of re-entry
2012-04-10 17:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that SPEED is measured by the MCO
2012-04-10 17:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we break below the November lows
2012-04-10 17:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then our speed is probably too fast to land safely
2012-04-10 17:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I hope you can visualize this
2012-04-10 17:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the physics in work here on a simplified basis
2012-04-10 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so hopefully
2012-04-10 17:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the captain can provide enough drag on re-entry to keep the shuttle from accelerating even further
2012-04-10 17:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Shuttle does this by providing a pitch and roll maneuver
2012-04-10 17:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very similar to what happens with the MCO
2012-04-10 17:30:29 [Message] tracca -> Chat: SP500 MCO going below November lows this week suggests crash?
2012-04-10 17:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...
2012-04-10 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "crash like" events can occur if and when the MCSUM moves down and through the zero line
2012-04-10 17:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the speed in which it moves above or below suggests whether or not there is CONTROL or not
2012-04-10 17:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going below the November MCO lows then would suggest that the speed would be too fast for a safe landing to occur
2012-04-10 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but can still be saved
2012-04-10 17:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break below the August lows of last year though
2012-04-10 17:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: within this SAME SEQUENCE
2012-04-10 17:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is to say
2012-04-10 17:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without any bounce at all
2012-04-10 17:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could indeed provide a "crash like" event
2012-04-10 17:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: understand the difference?
2012-04-10 17:33:00 [Message] tracca -> Chat: will probably occur while it is crashing
2012-04-10 17:33:04 [Message] tracca -> Chat: yes
2012-04-10 17:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2012-04-10 17:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2012-04-10 17:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the velocity of money in which we're measuring
2012-04-10 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it moves too quickly
2012-04-10 17:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this creates a vacuum
2012-04-10 17:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and prices will rush even faster to attain the same (or about the same) momentum in which money is traveling
2012-04-10 17:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but let's not worry about things that aren't in evidence
2012-04-10 17:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or what we can't control
2012-04-10 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we know for now is...
2012-04-10 17:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have had a technical breakdown in the short term trend of money flow last Wednesday
2012-04-10 17:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is now leading to a technical breakdown in the intermediate term trend of money flow
2012-04-10 17:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any time a trend of support or resistance is broken, it does so with a lot of fanfare
2012-04-10 17:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because it takes "that much more" to do so
2012-04-10 17:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this time
2012-04-10 17:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we had before
2012-04-10 17:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a debt problem being blamed
2012-04-10 17:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2012-04-10 17:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's this same debt that drives prices higher
2012-04-10 17:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know
2012-04-10 17:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Spain has defaulted before
2012-04-10 17:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so has France
2012-04-10 17:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Italy
2012-04-10 17:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the situation these days is that we are all linked together
2012-04-10 17:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that makes it a problem
2012-04-10 17:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aside from that
2012-04-10 17:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have been waiting patiently for the market to show its hand here for almost 2 months
2012-04-10 17:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're getting something to work with
2012-04-10 17:38:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically
2012-04-10 17:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is healthy
2012-04-10 17:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bears still have some work to do here before they gain enough control to make a difference
2012-04-10 17:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if they over do it
2012-04-10 17:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they may create similar problems that they created with the November lows
2012-04-10 17:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we talked about last week
2012-04-10 17:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears finally got control of the open field
2012-04-10 17:39:55 [Message] gelf -> Chat: not just Europe, Japan is just as ugly
2012-04-10 17:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they were likely to score a touchdown or two here
2012-04-10 17:40:05 [Message] gelf -> Chat: but gets no time
2012-04-10 17:40:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: David...you watch too much TV :)
2012-04-10 17:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're all in the same boat
2012-04-10 17:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no denying it
2012-04-10 17:40:25 [Message] gelf -> Chat: thats the point, its not on t.v.
2012-04-10 17:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, it is
2012-04-10 17:40:35 [Message] gelf -> Chat: right, your channel
2012-04-10 17:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...I don't know what you're watching
2012-04-10 17:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not my channel
2012-04-10 17:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2012-04-10 17:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't matter
2012-04-10 17:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest
2012-04-10 17:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's nothing you can do
2012-04-10 17:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to make money off it 
2012-04-10 17:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and make enough where it won't bother you
2012-04-10 17:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or your children
2012-04-10 17:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: capital appreciation is our goal
2012-04-10 17:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but capital preservation is our constant
2012-04-10 17:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the news has always been bad
2012-04-10 17:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was same thing as I grew up
2012-04-10 17:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you watch old movies
2012-04-10 17:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was the same then
2012-04-10 17:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you read history
2012-04-10 17:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was the same then
2012-04-10 17:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't matter
2012-04-10 17:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing changes
2012-04-10 17:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the players do
2012-04-10 17:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward as we are running out of time
2012-04-10 17:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best thing here
2012-04-10 17:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that when the MCO makes these deep "oversold" lows
2012-04-10 17:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it really does solidify a price bottom that is rarely tested, if ever
2012-04-10 17:44:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the scarier situation
2012-04-10 17:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be to have a complex bearish pattern below the zero line
2012-04-10 17:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zig zag type of structure
2012-04-10 17:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would suggest that there is a lack of money available for investment
2012-04-10 17:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when we get slammed down like this
2012-04-10 17:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more emotional than it is damaging
2012-04-10 17:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM also moved below the +500 level today
2012-04-10 17:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow will join in on the fun tomorrow having just broken support yesterday
2012-04-10 17:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep...that jobs number was not a good thing
2012-04-10 17:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a -138 reading on the MID breadth MCO
2012-04-10 17:47:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not likely we're going to go even more negative
2012-04-10 17:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would take something extraordinary to do so
2012-04-10 17:47:45 [Message] gelf -> Chat: jobs number?  thats a lagging indicator, cmon dave
2012-04-10 17:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO went down and through the zero line today
2012-04-10 17:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, it was the excuse
2012-04-10 17:48:15 [Message] gelf -> Chat: probably the most lag of them all, not worth even mentioning
2012-04-10 17:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there wasn't anything else that took the Dow futures from up 55 to down 110 in 10 minutes
2012-04-10 17:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's always an excuse
2012-04-10 17:48:44 [Message] gelf -> Chat: if it wasn't that, than it woulda been something else a day later
2012-04-10 17:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we knew something was bothering the market 2 weeks ago
2012-04-10 17:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could had been
2012-04-10 17:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it was what it was
2012-04-10 17:49:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO has a -95 reading
2012-04-10 17:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest here
2012-04-10 17:49:42 [Message] tracca -> Chat: SML MCSUM below 0 today, right?
2012-04-10 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the volume oscillators are "oversold"
2012-04-10 17:49:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TRIN numbers are high
2012-04-10 17:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might have created a good keystone for our next foundation to build on
2012-04-10 17:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes Tracca
2012-04-10 17:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it did move below the zero line
2012-04-10 17:50:47 [Message] tracca -> Chat: any implication?
2012-04-10 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick peak at the volume McSUM's
2012-04-10 17:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears are in control :)
2012-04-10 17:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price wise
2012-04-10 17:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a test of 420 is doable
2012-04-10 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we should get a bounce tomorrow off the 440 level
2012-04-10 17:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2012-04-10 17:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let it be duly noted
2012-04-10 17:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that all of the volume MCSUM's remain above their zero lines
2012-04-10 17:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the likelihood of a crash like event are slim to fat :)
2012-04-10 17:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a bounce here is indicated...
2012-04-10 17:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it could be a big one
2012-04-10 17:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now climactic
2012-04-10 17:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look for a price low in the next two trading sessions
2012-04-10 17:53:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now "oversold"
2012-04-10 17:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are on their way to being so
2012-04-10 17:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...all that compression we talked about for the last two weeks?
2012-04-10 17:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-04-10 17:54:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: compression points are always highly volatile once released
2012-04-10 17:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I made note of that as well on the cumulative charts over the last 3 weeks as well
2012-04-10 17:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we really shouldn't be surprised of the last couple of days
2012-04-10 17:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the dam just broke
2012-04-10 17:55:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good...
2012-04-10 17:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 2.54
2012-04-10 17:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could get worse...that would be good to see
2012-04-10 17:55:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2012-04-10 17:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at 1.22
2012-04-10 17:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are setting a floor now
2012-04-10 17:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's going to take probably another 2-3 weeks before it's over
2012-04-10 17:56:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 2.47
2012-04-10 17:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OPEN 10 at .98
2012-04-10 17:57:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 2.56
2012-04-10 17:57:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.10
2012-04-10 17:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2012-04-10 17:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-04-10 17:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too far, too fast seems to be the order of the day
2012-04-10 17:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the sentiment we might find tonight
2012-04-10 17:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an obligatory bounce is probably indicated
2012-04-10 17:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since it's turnaround Tuesday
2012-04-10 17:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably a given
2012-04-10 17:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals remain weak near term as they have broken some key support levels created over the last 6 months
2012-04-10 17:59:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but from the ashes usually come solid foundation from where markets can once again rally
2012-04-10 17:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IF
2012-04-10 17:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can find a foot hold
2012-04-10 18:00:07 [Message] tracca -> Chat: a bounce tomorrow, but due to climactic CVIs a price low in the next two sessions?
2012-04-10 18:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I don't see any indication at all that the major powers will slack off in providing liquidity to the markets
2012-04-10 18:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bounce is part of the price low
2012-04-10 18:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bounce comes from the rubber band being overly stretched
2012-04-10 18:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CVI provides the insight that there was too much selling for it to continue
2012-04-10 18:01:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course
2012-04-10 18:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if someone now set off a nuclear bomb
2012-04-10 18:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is vulnerable
2012-04-10 18:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike 2 months ago where it wouldn't had mattered
2012-04-10 18:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, it would have...
2012-04-10 18:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not in the greater scheme of things market related
2012-04-10 18:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-04-10 18:02:24 [Message] gelf -> Chat: quickly
2012-04-10 18:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure
2012-04-10 18:02:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: what do you make of the 6 to 1 breadth plurality today?
2012-04-10 18:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..it wasn't 10:1 :)
2012-04-10 18:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's a good thing
2012-04-10 18:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wash out
2012-04-10 18:02:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool
2012-04-10 18:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or nearly so
2012-04-10 18:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can get past tomorrow, we'll be fine
2012-04-10 18:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not
2012-04-10 18:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then like we said last Thursday
2012-04-10 18:03:29 [Message] gelf -> Chat: when cvi's explode to upside and get overbought there is talk of it being an initiation, why no talk of it being an initiation on the other side?  maybe its dp swenlin that says that, i get you two confused
2012-04-10 18:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a nice ride
2012-04-10 18:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry...I have never referred to the CVI's as initiation
2012-04-10 18:04:03 [Message] gelf -> Chat: kickoff
2012-04-10 18:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the tool doesn't work like that
2012-04-10 18:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kickoffs are based on trends
2012-04-10 18:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO, for example
2012-04-10 18:04:16 [Message] gelf -> Chat: that is swenlin that says it then
2012-04-10 18:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: his opinion...ask him
2012-04-10 18:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from what I read this morning
2012-04-10 18:04:52 [Message] gelf -> Chat: no use for his opinions, if it were yours i had already asked
2012-04-10 18:05:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'll make a better Erin, I swear, LOL
2012-04-10 18:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Carl only found a break in support just yesterday
2012-04-10 18:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not last week
2012-04-10 18:05:04 [Message] gelf -> Chat: just confused the two
2012-04-10 18:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2012-04-10 18:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone uses indicators to their level of incompetence :)
2012-04-10 18:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CVI is just a glorified version of OBV
2012-04-10 18:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we use it's interpretation as a compliment to the core backbone of money flow
2012-04-10 18:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that all comes from the A/D line
2012-04-10 18:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where it's trend and velocity is measured by the McClellan's
2012-04-10 18:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is just a compliment to that
2012-04-10 18:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it fits...great
2012-04-10 18:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it doesn't...
2012-04-10 18:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's far better that you don't try to force it to support a bias
2012-04-10 18:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2012-04-10 18:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have to get going
2012-04-10 18:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2012-04-10 18:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's see if we can get a bounce here and something to work with
2012-04-10 18:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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