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Posts: 4,423
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-03-08 16:00:13 fib1618: good day
2016-03-08 16:00:15 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-03-08 16:02:06 tuna: Hello great and You?
2016-03-08 16:02:19 fib1618: doing fine...thanks for asking!!
2016-03-08 16:03:28 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-03-08 16:05:05 fib1618: need two minutes
2016-03-08 16:07:57 fib1618: greatest invention deposit
2016-03-08 16:08:44 fib1618: alright...let's clean off the desk
2016-03-08 16:09:30 fib1618: lets get SC up and get started
2016-03-08 16:10:02 fib1618: after showing another strong day on Monday
2016-03-08 16:10:12 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO finally broke down today
2016-03-08 16:10:27 fib1618: and in the process
2016-03-08 16:10:38 fib1618: took out the end of February MCO lows
2016-03-08 16:11:03 fib1618: this would indicate that the accelerated portion of the advance has now ended
2016-03-08 16:11:24 fib1618: and with any break of the mid February reaction lows
2016-03-08 16:11:36 fib1618: the completion of our breadth thrust sequence
2016-03-08 16:11:57 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor
2016-03-08 16:12:16 fib1618: and we see that the rising bottoms line on the CO MCO intersects at around the +35 level
2016-03-08 16:12:33 fib1618: so if the thrust has ended
2016-03-08 16:12:47 fib1618: we should see initial support at this same level
2016-03-08 16:13:27 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2016-03-08 16:13:36 fib1618: and we see that we have moved up and through the +250 level now
2016-03-08 16:13:54 fib1618: and we have closed above the highs seen at the beginning of November
2016-03-08 16:14:23 fib1618: this now secures the idea that we did indeed have a tradable low from the February 8th mid range close
2016-03-08 16:14:35 fib1618: and that we will now minimally challenge the all time highs in the NYA
2016-03-08 16:14:48 fib1618: this, of course, would have to be confirmed by the NYSE Composite
2016-03-08 16:14:54 fib1618: so let's take a look at that
2016-03-08 16:15:24 fib1618: and we see that this MCO also broke down today
2016-03-08 16:15:36 fib1618: and finished below the end of February reaction lows as well
2016-03-08 16:16:00 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-03-08 16:16:15 fib1618: and we see that we haven't as yet moved above the beginning of November highs
2016-03-08 16:16:25 fib1618: but with the momentum already generated by the thrust
2016-03-08 16:16:37 fib1618: we should accomplish this on Wednesday
2016-03-08 16:17:07 fib1618: and this would then put us in a position to challenge the +500 MCSUM levels on both the CO and Composite data
2016-03-08 16:17:29 fib1618: for Elliotticians out there
2016-03-08 16:17:39 fib1618: we also completed wave iii today to the upside
2016-03-08 16:18:14 fib1618: from where the highs generated in the MCO's over the last couple of trading sessions will now be used as "flag" points from where we can measure pattern divergences later on
2016-03-08 16:18:46 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor here
2016-03-08 16:19:07 fib1618: and we see that the intersection to the current rising bottoms line comes in at just below the +20 level
2016-03-08 16:19:21 fib1618: so we have a lot of play here and still remain in a bullish configuration
2016-03-08 16:20:03 fib1618: which would later be used to reach our upside targets for this move...for the NYA it's about the 10,200 level
2016-03-08 16:20:05 fib1618: and after that
2016-03-08 16:20:35 fib1618: around 10,400 (I think that's what it was last Thursday)
2016-03-08 16:21:07 fib1618: also of interest
2016-03-08 16:21:27 fib1618: is that the November highs we see on the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM come in at around the +500 level
2016-03-08 16:21:46 fib1618: so a break above this level would not only take out horizontal pattern resistance
2016-03-08 16:21:52 fib1618: and if the buyers are lucky enough
2016-03-08 16:22:17 fib1618: would provide enough of a thrust where we can see a continuation of the current rising pattern sequence
2016-03-08 16:22:49 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-03-08 16:23:06 fib1618: and here we can see how far and fast we "throttled down" today
2016-03-08 16:23:40 fib1618: and taking out the accelerated bottom support area of late February at the same time
2016-03-08 16:24:15 fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now 32 points away from reaching its zero line
2016-03-08 16:24:34 fib1618: and about another 30 points from horizontal resistance
2016-03-08 16:24:51 fib1618: with such a prolonged breadth thrust sequence though
2016-03-08 16:25:34 fib1618: we should see this MCO continue to attempt to level off a bit more before we'll see a concentrated effort of trying to break above both areas of resistance in one fell swoop
2016-03-08 16:26:06 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2016-03-08 16:26:21 fib1618: and with it already showing a shallow pattern of tops beneath tops on Thursday
2016-03-08 16:26:44 fib1618: it raced down to the zero line between Monday and today
2016-03-08 16:27:02 fib1618: we also note that the 10% Component has now snapped back to the 5%
2016-03-08 16:27:19 fib1618: so between the two of them
2016-03-08 16:27:21 tuna: prices seem to be holding up
2016-03-08 16:27:32 fib1618: we should see a technical bounce on Wednesday
2016-03-08 16:27:44 fib1618: yes, prices are holding up because of the high amount of buying imbalance currently present
2016-03-08 16:28:14 fib1618: looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM and it's now reached its minimum goal of challenging the pattern highs of late December
2016-03-08 16:28:31 fib1618: where it looks as though the current sequence is showing some resistance
2016-03-08 16:28:53 fib1618: also of note is that we're at the +283 level on the MCSUM
2016-03-08 16:29:30 fib1618: so we'll have to see if tomorrow's expected bounce will be enough to extend this internal pattern to the next level at +500 or not
2016-03-08 16:29:59 fib1618: also in play here is that the NDX  breadth MCO did break below its rising bottoms line today
2016-03-08 16:30:19 fib1618: giving the pattern additional incentive to at least see a technical bounce at these levels
2016-03-08 16:31:01 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO has now taken out its short term series of bottoms below bottoms pattern
2016-03-08 16:31:21 fib1618: and this confirms that the current breadth thrust in the SPX is now complete
2016-03-08 16:31:32 fib1618: and aside from any mid course corrections
2016-03-08 16:31:43 fib1618: we'll now see this MCO search its way toward the zero line
2016-03-08 16:32:07 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor here
2016-03-08 16:32:19 fib1618: and we closed today just above the rising bottoms line on the SPX MCO
2016-03-08 16:32:33 fib1618: so although we could see another soft day on Wednesday
2016-03-08 16:32:57 fib1618: we should see the SPX breadth MCO have a technical bounce by the time we meet up again on Thursday
2016-03-08 16:34:10 fib1618: this would also suggest that the upcoming challenge of the beginning of November highs in the SPX breadth MCSUM might find some near term problems in moving above this same level
2016-03-08 16:34:27 fib1618: but reasonably speaking
2016-03-08 16:34:36 fib1618: if the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM can do it
2016-03-08 16:34:53 fib1618: the rest of the market is more than likely to follow this same path of broader market strength
2016-03-08 16:35:12 fib1618: it's always tough initially once the engines shut down
2016-03-08 16:35:23 fib1618: but we should have a better handle on this in a couple of days
2016-03-08 16:36:03 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO also broke down today
2016-03-08 16:36:26 fib1618: as the OEX breadth MCSUM challenges its bear market resistance level of +250
2016-03-08 16:36:58 fib1618: we did, however, land today right on the rising bottoms line in the OEX MCO
2016-03-08 16:37:08 fib1618: so a bounce should be seen near term
2016-03-08 16:37:16 fib1618: which would echo what we saw in the NDX
2016-03-08 16:37:44 fib1618: breakdown in the Dow breadth MCO as well
2016-03-08 16:38:37 fib1618: as we closed perceptively below the rising bottoms line on the Dow breadth MCO
2016-03-08 16:38:47 fib1618: so a bounce there is indicated as well
2016-03-08 16:39:18 fib1618: same kind of timely breakdown in the MID breadth MCO as well
2016-03-08 16:39:48 fib1618: as the MID breadth MCSUM moved up and through the +500 level today
2016-03-08 16:40:11 fib1618: but remains just below the more important pattern resistance top we see in the early December period
2016-03-08 16:40:40 fib1618: also a large collapse in the SML breadth MCO today
2016-03-08 16:40:48 fib1618: and as we touched upon last week
2016-03-08 16:41:16 fib1618: with such high readings in the MCO's as we had last week
2016-03-08 16:41:25 fib1618: once this fuel injection stalls, slows or is shut off
2016-03-08 16:41:46 fib1618: the MCO's will tend to fall sharply to the downside because of how the math works
2016-03-08 16:41:53 fib1618: and we're seeing this come to life today
2016-03-08 16:42:31 fib1618: rising bottoms line on the SML breadth MCO crosses at around the +30 level
2016-03-08 16:42:56 fib1618: so we again have a great amount of play here right now and still the buyers would have control of things
2016-03-08 16:43:19 fib1618: and to finish it off
2016-03-08 16:43:38 fib1618: the TM breadth MCO echoed the entire market's deceleration phase today by moving sharply lower
2016-03-08 16:44:05 fib1618: and taking out the reaction lows of the end of February
2016-03-08 16:46:29 fib1618: so...
2016-03-08 16:46:53 fib1618: the accelerated phase of the rising structure has now been completed
2016-03-08 16:47:06 fib1618: and we should see a continuation of back and fill for the next week or so
2016-03-08 16:47:22 fib1618: with a high degree of volatility and choppiness
2016-03-08 16:47:39 fib1618: which is just right for all you scalpers and day should have a lot of fun
2016-03-08 16:47:47 fib1618: for the Elliotticians out there
2016-03-08 16:47:54 fib1618: we have likely begun wave iv
2016-03-08 16:48:24 fib1618: and we'll have confirmation of this once we uniformly take out the mid February lows in the MCO's
2016-03-08 16:48:59 fib1618: on the bearish side
2016-03-08 16:49:39 fib1618: we do need to have at least one more move higher here in prices to break a pattern that could be an irregular flat given that we are finding resistance at the 200 day EMA's on many of the major index daily charts
2016-03-08 16:49:49 fib1618: but with the extended thrust we've just had
2016-03-08 16:49:56 fib1618: this is NOT a likely event
2016-03-08 16:50:12 fib1618: but it's thrown out there just to provide trading balance
2016-03-08 16:50:22 fib1618: lets see what the volume data looks like
2016-03-08 16:50:47 fib1618: breathtaking
2016-03-08 16:51:06 fib1618: both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's are also extended as well
2016-03-08 16:51:16 fib1618: but they are NOT leading breadth to the downside on this shut down phase
2016-03-08 16:51:54 fib1618: this is a further indication that our anticipated corrective process will be relatively shallow in scope
2016-03-08 16:52:15 fib1618: which also means it should be a correction more of TIME than it would be of PRICE
2016-03-08 16:52:41 fib1618: this would then compliment that expectation of an Elliott 4th wave
2016-03-08 16:52:45 fib1618: and likely one of a triangle
2016-03-08 16:53:17 fib1618: we also note that the NYSE Composite volume MCSUM is leading the CO MCSUM to the upside
2016-03-08 16:53:37 fib1618: as both are now challenging their +250 levels AND their horizontal pattern resistance areas
2016-03-08 16:53:56 fib1618: so lots of technical stuff going on right now under the hood that needs our attention
2016-03-08 16:55:06 fib1618: you can also see how extended we are right now with regard to both the amplitude and the spacing we see between the 10% and 5% components as we run through the data tonight
2016-03-08 16:55:12 fib1618: quite impressive, indeed
2016-03-08 16:55:38 fib1618: as this suggests that both breadth and volume plurality has been highly positive now for the last several days
2016-03-08 16:56:43 fib1618: in fact...just checked breadth plurality today on the NYSE, and we were negative by over 3:1
2016-03-08 16:57:05 fib1618: I "think" this may had been the first negative plurality day in over a week
2016-03-08 16:57:14 fib1618: let me see if I can open my Excel sec
2016-03-08 16:58:13 fib1618: yes...first negative day since February 23rd
2016-03-08 16:58:46 fib1618: that's 10 trading days
2016-03-08 16:58:50 fib1618: that's some run
2016-03-08 16:59:18 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO also broke down today
2016-03-08 16:59:38 fib1618: and we now have engine shut off there of 2 of the 3 engines
2016-03-08 17:00:02 fib1618: note here that this is taking place at the the +250 level (+259)
2016-03-08 17:00:54 fib1618: with prices snapping back down to what were the old highs seen back in late January
2016-03-08 17:01:58 fib1618: we also see the same kind of swoon today in the NDX volume MCO as we saw in the breadth data
2016-03-08 17:02:22 fib1618: though we remain a little more elevated above the zero line
2016-03-08 17:03:53 fib1618: with similar hurdles here with the NASDAQ volume MCSUM to jump over before the NDX volume MCSUM is able to move to the +500 level
2016-03-08 17:04:49 fib1618: the SPX volume MCSUM is also within the technical resistance window of the +250 level now
2016-03-08 17:04:54 fib1618: as we talked about before
2016-03-08 17:05:14 fib1618: it has been the volume MCSUM's which have kept us from going all in on this rally from last month
2016-03-08 17:06:09 fib1618: and the expectation now is for the buyers get breadth and volume in better sync with one another in order to get prices chugging away to the upside without much in the way of misfiring
2016-03-08 17:06:50 fib1618: the OEX volume MCO also leveled off today
2016-03-08 17:07:13 fib1618: as the OEX volume MCSUM is now within 110 data points from reaching its zero line
2016-03-08 17:07:26 fib1618: yes...reaching hasn't made it yet above zero
2016-03-08 17:07:41 fib1618: and this will be a problem for the market bulls until this is corrected
2016-03-08 17:08:53 fib1618: we also see continued upside weakness in the Dow volume MCSUM
2016-03-08 17:09:08 fib1618: as it has just reached the +171 level
2016-03-08 17:09:32 fib1618: with strong resistance still above current levels at +250
2016-03-08 17:09:51 fib1618: a STRONG move continues in the MID volume MCO
2016-03-08 17:10:20 fib1618: and you can see how potent money flow continues to be in this basket of issues by the large post expansion to the upside in the MID volume MCSUM
2016-03-08 17:11:08 fib1618: and we're seeing this same kind of immense strength in the SML volume MCO and MCSUM as well
2016-03-08 17:11:28 fib1618: and this would not be able to be done unless liquidity levels were on the rise
2016-03-08 17:11:57 fib1618: and taken altogether
2016-03-08 17:12:21 fib1618: the TM volume MCSUM shows that we are just above the important +250 level now
2016-03-08 17:13:07 fib1618: with one more strong plurality day suggesting that a challenge of the +500 level is likely before we have a chance of an extended rest
2016-03-08 17:13:10 fib1618: so...
2016-03-08 17:13:16 fib1618: volume remains strong
2016-03-08 17:13:30 fib1618: well...volume remains strongER than breadth right now
2016-03-08 17:13:37 fib1618: at least on a short term basis
2016-03-08 17:13:55 fib1618: but has some catching up to do on the intermediate term time frame
2016-03-08 17:14:00 fib1618: especially in the large caps
2016-03-08 17:14:13 fib1618: the MID and SML caps remain where money is finding the most value
2016-03-08 17:14:17 fib1618: or in this case
2016-03-08 17:14:27 fib1618: finding the confidence to buy into the growth stocks
2016-03-08 17:15:04 fib1618: and this is usually what we see at the beginning stages of a advancing price sequence
2016-03-08 17:15:12 fib1618: moving to the OBV's
2016-03-08 17:16:08 fib1618: and we'll call it a bit of a mixed picture
2016-03-08 17:16:18 fib1618: though the VTO's are now close to being "overbought"
2016-03-08 17:16:37 fib1618: and the STVO's remain with this same imbalance
2016-03-08 17:16:52 fib1618: CVI's are showing a bit of a sell off today
2016-03-08 17:16:58 fib1618: but nothing in the climactic area
2016-03-08 17:17:16 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.83
2016-03-08 17:17:18 fib1618: nice
2016-03-08 17:17:27 fib1618: Open 10 at .98
2016-03-08 17:17:41 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.24
2016-03-08 17:17:52 fib1618: Open 10 at .97
2016-03-08 17:18:02 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.49
2016-03-08 17:18:10 fib1618: Open 10 at .99
2016-03-08 17:18:13 fib1618: so...
2016-03-08 17:18:25 fib1618: it looks like traders were taking money off the table here
2016-03-08 17:18:29 fib1618: and taking profits
2016-03-08 17:18:45 fib1618: no indication that money is moving out of stocks
2016-03-08 17:19:00 fib1618: as it looks to be rotating from value to growth
2016-03-08 17:19:18 fib1618: this will eventually slow as well
2016-03-08 17:20:05 fib1618: but we also have enough liquidity right now to cushion any blows that the market might take near term
2016-03-08 17:20:12 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2016-03-08 17:21:30 fib1618: +5
2016-03-08 17:21:40 fib1618: so the strength continues
2016-03-08 17:21:47 fib1618: as a reminder
2016-03-08 17:22:04 fib1618: we would need a reading of +25 or better on the BETS for an accumulation signal
2016-03-08 17:22:15 fib1618: so the buyers still have work to do
2016-03-08 17:22:19 fib1618: of special note
2016-03-08 17:22:37 fib1618: the NYAD line is "this far" away from going back into a Bullish Configuration
2016-03-08 17:22:50 fib1618: as is the TOUD
2016-03-08 17:23:25 fib1618: and if that happens
2016-03-08 17:23:28 fib1618: we're at +15
2016-03-08 17:23:40 fib1618: so...things remain constructive
2016-03-08 17:23:57 fib1618: but there's still not enough as yet to scream the "all clear"
2016-03-08 17:24:01 fib1618: anything else?
2016-03-08 17:25:40 fib1618: bottom line...we should continue choppy for the next couple of days...a technical bounce on Wednesday...and some choppy action until the volume MCSUM's get with the program
2016-03-08 17:25:45 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-03-08 17:25:48 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-03-08 17:25:54 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2016-03-08 17:26:02 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Thursday
2016-03-08 17:26:06 fib1618: good night

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