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fib_1618

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Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-03-03 16:00:07 fib1618: good day
2016-03-03 16:00:10 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-03-03 16:01:12 thespookyone: Fantastic [smile]  You?
2016-03-03 16:01:16 tuna: great thanks
2016-03-03 16:01:22 fib1618: doing fine
2016-03-03 16:01:32 fib1618: thanks for asking!
2016-03-03 16:02:27 fib1618: gosh...it feels like its been a week since we last got together!
2016-03-03 16:03:34 tuna: or 7 days
2016-03-03 16:03:49 fib1618: [smile]
2016-03-03 16:03:59 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-03-03 16:04:17 fib1618: I've seen nothing since Saturday
2016-03-03 16:04:33 tuna: have fun!!
2016-03-03 16:04:42 thespookyone: You missed all the fun...
2016-03-03 16:04:42 fib1618: so I'll have a fresh take (I hope)
2016-03-03 16:04:50 fib1618: I heard about Tuesday
2016-03-03 16:05:17 fib1618: I had people coming to my booth asking what it all means? [smile]
2016-03-03 16:05:59 fib1618: BTW...knowing that our industry tends to lead the stock market by about 2-3 months
2016-03-03 16:06:05 thespookyone: When that happens, I just mumble, LOL
2016-03-03 16:06:18 fib1618: we had our best show...ever.
2016-03-03 16:06:27 thespookyone: Congrats!!
2016-03-03 16:06:33 fib1618: so we'll take that for what it's worth
2016-03-03 16:06:49 fib1618: well...people were buying
2016-03-03 16:07:03 fib1618: haven't seen this since...oh...just before 9/11
2016-03-03 16:07:10 thespookyone: WOW
2016-03-03 16:07:28 fib1618: we'll see what happens at the summer show
2016-03-03 16:07:43 thespookyone: What does fashion say?
2016-03-03 16:07:47 fib1618: but it's a good indication that we're probably going to see a good spring in the markets
2016-03-03 16:07:59 fib1618: well...it's a crosscurrent right now
2016-03-03 16:08:14 fib1618: but we'll call it a moderate then
2016-03-03 16:08:16 fib1618: however
2016-03-03 16:08:32 fib1618: if you watched the awards show's this year
2016-03-03 16:08:50 fib1618: you probably noticed a lot of plunging necklines on many gowns
2016-03-03 16:09:09 fib1618: so...romantic...with a bit of optimism
2016-03-03 16:09:15 fib1618: colors are in the coral/aqua family (think ocean colors)
2016-03-03 16:09:22 fib1618: which is neither sad or happy
2016-03-03 16:09:27 fib1618: but more playful
2016-03-03 16:09:40 fib1618: taken together...it's a consolidation with a bullish bias
2016-03-03 16:09:40 thespookyone: nice. Tell me when you get high demand for belts that go on mini-skirts, LOL
2016-03-03 16:10:01 fib1618: we did have a lot of mini's last year at this time
2016-03-03 16:10:09 fib1618: usually that indicates a market top
2016-03-03 16:10:17 fib1618: and we got that over the summer
2016-03-03 16:10:19 thespookyone: oh
2016-03-03 16:10:24 fib1618: sorry dude
2016-03-03 16:10:28 fib1618: fashion is fickle
2016-03-03 16:10:31 fib1618: [smile]
2016-03-03 16:10:36 thespookyone: true
2016-03-03 16:10:39 fib1618: just like traders
2016-03-03 16:10:44 fib1618: and with that said
2016-03-03 16:10:53 fib1618: let's get SC up and see what's going on
2016-03-03 16:11:13 fib1618: whoa
2016-03-03 16:11:16 fib1618: wow!
2016-03-03 16:11:21 fib1618: lol
2016-03-03 16:11:29 fib1618: my my
2016-03-03 16:11:35 fib1618: let me take this in for a moment
2016-03-03 16:11:54 fib1618: wow...
2016-03-03 16:11:59 fib1618: this is some buy signal
2016-03-03 16:12:22 fib1618: OK...well..
2016-03-03 16:12:25 fib1618: here we go
2016-03-03 16:12:53 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has continued to move into deeply "overbought" territory
2016-03-03 16:12:55 fib1618: in fact
2016-03-03 16:13:43 fib1618: it looks like that we're now at levels not seen since the 2009 bottom
2016-03-03 16:14:12 fib1618: putting ruler to this same longer term chart
2016-03-03 16:14:33 fib1618: we see that the declining tops line on the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM crosses at just about the +250 level
2016-03-03 16:14:49 fib1618: so any break above this level would strongly suggest that a new bull market is underway
2016-03-03 16:15:05 fib1618: new, in the sense, of a new sequence
2016-03-03 16:15:43 fib1618: we also note today that the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM has moved up and through its zero line
2016-03-03 16:16:06 fib1618: and this now suggests that we are in gear to the upside until proven otherwise
2016-03-03 16:16:41 fib1618: our new upside price target based on the CO data in the NYA is at 10,600
2016-03-03 16:17:05 fib1618: but if we do take out the reaction highs seen at that time with the MCSUM
2016-03-03 16:17:15 fib1618: this would then clear the way to challenge the all time highs
2016-03-03 16:18:13 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO is also now well into deeply "overbought" territory
2016-03-03 16:18:36 fib1618: having taken out the highs of October of last year
2016-03-03 16:19:04 fib1618: we also see that the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM is leading the CO MCSUM to the upside
2016-03-03 16:19:12 fib1618: so the broader market is very strong right now
2016-03-03 16:19:30 fib1618: and that strongly suggests that prices will continue to move higher for the next several weeks
2016-03-03 16:20:01 fib1618: looks like we got an acceleration point with Tuesday's large advance
2016-03-03 16:20:23 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-03-03 16:20:45 fib1618: and we see here that we will move up and through "bear market resistance" at the +250 level with tomorrow's trading
2016-03-03 16:21:05 fib1618: so the "make or break point" for this rally will come with the +500 level
2016-03-03 16:21:34 fib1618: where we saw the market fail to move above this level in early November
2016-03-03 16:21:56 fib1618: and that set off the series of events that led to the early January Summation Failure sequence
2016-03-03 16:22:17 fib1618: sorry...got to jump to the BETS for a moment...brb
2016-03-03 16:23:16 fib1618: NYAD line is flying north right now
2016-03-03 16:23:40 fib1618: Zero
2016-03-03 16:23:57 fib1618: but marked improvement in many areas of the cumulative charts
2016-03-03 16:24:21 fib1618: only the secondary A/D lines are bringing up the rear right now
2016-03-03 16:24:58 fib1618: solid short term buy signal now with the NASDAQ breadth MCO and it's components
2016-03-03 16:25:16 fib1618: and it now looks like a snapback to the 4900 is probable
2016-03-03 16:26:08 fib1618: watch the NASDAQ tomorrow as it moves above the divergent highs of late December
2016-03-03 16:26:44 fib1618: as this would allow prices to also accelerate in this same direction
2016-03-03 16:27:39 fib1618: to explain how important today's +84 reading in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-03-03 16:28:00 fib1618: this level has only been reached in only two other occasions in the last 7 years
2016-03-03 16:28:06 fib1618: the 2009 lows
2016-03-03 16:28:18 fib1618: and the lows seen in 2011
2016-03-03 16:28:34 fib1618: so this is the highest thrust we've had in 5 years
2016-03-03 16:28:51 fib1618: and should be classified as a kick off
2016-03-03 16:29:17 fib1618: let's see how the NDX looks
2016-03-03 16:29:31 fib1618: jeeez
2016-03-03 16:29:40 fib1618: we have tops beneath tops there
2016-03-03 16:30:01 fib1618: but are currently highly "overbought" at the +74 level
2016-03-03 16:30:28 fib1618: so we'll this a complex bullish structure above the MCO zero line
2016-03-03 16:30:39 fib1618: and though these tend to happen with zero line tests
2016-03-03 16:30:49 fib1618: this is certainly not the case at this time
2016-03-03 16:31:09 fib1618: and this highly suggests that money is moving in with both hands
2016-03-03 16:31:42 fib1618: also note that, here too, the NDX breadth MCSUM is about to move up and through its late December highs on Friday
2016-03-03 16:31:46 tuna: is it significant that it is staying above 50?
2016-03-03 16:31:51 fib1618: very
2016-03-03 16:32:02 fib1618: as it takes TREMENDOUS flows of money to stay there
2016-03-03 16:32:15 fib1618: remember that the EMA is a weighted moving average
2016-03-03 16:32:32 fib1618: so for an EMA reading to stay high
2016-03-03 16:32:44 fib1618: it consistently needs higher and higher rates of change
2016-03-03 16:32:54 fib1618: just to stay at those same levels
2016-03-03 16:33:06 fib1618: if this rate of change slows by any degree
2016-03-03 16:33:41 fib1618: the MCO moves sharply lower to fill this vacuum that's created when imbalances like this occur
2016-03-03 16:34:01 fib1618: the longer the time it takes for this same energy coefficient to slow
2016-03-03 16:34:36 fib1618: the quicker and sharper the reaction as the physics involved wants to move back to its mean (the zero line)
2016-03-03 16:34:47 fib1618: so the longer you stay up
2016-03-03 16:34:52 fib1618: the higher the fuel (RPM's) used to keep you there
2016-03-03 16:35:04 fib1618: the more fuel that's used to propel you forward
2016-03-03 16:35:26 fib1618: the longer it will take for an "equal and opposite" force to slow this same rate of ascent
2016-03-03 16:35:32 fib1618: that is...
2016-03-03 16:35:40 fib1618: once the fuel provided to the engines have fully shut down
2016-03-03 16:35:48 fib1618: and that would be when the MCO goes negative
2016-03-03 16:36:18 fib1618: which doesn't seem likely now until the middle part of next week
2016-03-03 16:36:30 fib1618: this also tells us
2016-03-03 16:36:45 fib1618: that money believes that whatever number comes out tomorrow it's going to bullish
2016-03-03 16:36:47 fib1618: in this case
2016-03-03 16:37:04 fib1618: the expectation would be for a higher jobs number
2016-03-03 16:37:20 fib1618: which would force the FED to remain in ease mode
2016-03-03 16:37:31 fib1618: let me check gold
2016-03-03 16:37:45 fib1618: oh my
2016-03-03 16:37:51 fib1618: big breakout to the upside today
2016-03-03 16:38:05 fib1618: that would be our expected triangle thrust
2016-03-03 16:38:13 fib1618: so $1300 is next there
2016-03-03 16:38:36 fib1618: and with silver diverging with gold
2016-03-03 16:38:56 fib1618: this pretty much confirms that we are in wave 5 up in gold for you Elliottician's out there
2016-03-03 16:39:40 fib1618: as silver...well..I can't think of a time where silver hasn't diverged with gold on wave 5 except at major bull market tops
2016-03-03 16:39:57 fib1618: let me check the 10 year
2016-03-03 16:40:18 fib1618: looks like the counter trend rally in yields ended today
2016-03-03 16:40:23 fib1618: so if this is the case
2016-03-03 16:40:36 fib1618: we should see a sharp drop in rates tomorrow
2016-03-03 16:41:29 fib1618: so we should see some a whole lot of shaking going on on Friday
2016-03-03 16:42:14 fib1618: a good sign of strength as well in the SPX breadth MCO
2016-03-03 16:42:29 fib1618: as it moved above its previous reaction high point
2016-03-03 16:42:50 fib1618: this should clear the way for a higher high for this sequence as soon as Friday
2016-03-03 16:42:56 fib1618: or better said
2016-03-03 16:43:12 fib1618: if we don't see a higher high in the SPX MCO on Friday
2016-03-03 16:43:17 fib1618: this would then be the MCO top
2016-03-03 16:43:41 fib1618: and the upside fuel being used will start to level off
2016-03-03 16:43:49 fib1618: (can't wait to see the volume data)
2016-03-03 16:44:05 fib1618: small point change on the OEX breadth MCO
2016-03-03 16:44:25 fib1618: as it looks to be struggling a bit near term
2016-03-03 16:44:43 fib1618: but has the distinct feature of a complex bullish structure as well
2016-03-03 16:45:23 fib1618: think of every little push higher you see on the OEX MCO chart as if you were tapping your foot on an accelerator pedal
2016-03-03 16:45:31 fib1618: where you take it off a bit
2016-03-03 16:45:43 fib1618: push on it with the same weighting before
2016-03-03 16:45:59 fib1618: take your foot off the pedal on Monday
2016-03-03 16:46:14 fib1618: and then re-asserting the forward motion since that time
2016-03-03 16:46:19 fib1618: because of this
2016-03-03 16:46:51 fib1618: the MCSUM (the road traveled) will be extend that much further even if we take our foot off the pedal altogether
2016-03-03 16:47:22 fib1618: the upside target of 900 from last week is more than doable now
2016-03-03 16:47:39 fib1618: and wasn't it around 2025 on the SPX?
2016-03-03 16:47:42 fib1618: I think it was
2016-03-03 16:48:01 fib1618: and that's only 30 SPX points away now
2016-03-03 16:48:42 fib1618: the area of last defense for the bears is the early November highs in the MCSUM's
2016-03-03 16:48:53 fib1618: if that's taken out
2016-03-03 16:49:03 fib1618: then a longer term bull move is probable
2016-03-03 16:49:37 fib1618: we're seeing some slowing now with the Dow breadth MCO
2016-03-03 16:49:56 fib1618: as the Dow breadth MCSUM is in the middle of negotiating above the +250 level
2016-03-03 16:50:19 fib1618: 17,200 is still our target there
2016-03-03 16:50:38 fib1618: oh my goodness
2016-03-03 16:50:41 fib1618: look at the MID go!
2016-03-03 16:51:02 turkey: Are your targets es or cash? Thanks!
2016-03-03 16:51:05 fib1618: with a breakout above the late December highs in the MID breadth MCSUM
2016-03-03 16:51:16 fib1618: looking at cash
2016-03-03 16:51:22 turkey: cool
2016-03-03 16:51:23 fib1618: looking at the charts provided
2016-03-03 16:51:32 fib1618: cash is king with this analysis
2016-03-03 16:51:34 fib1618: [smile]
2016-03-03 16:51:56 thespookyone: bears are toast
2016-03-03 16:52:08 fib1618: I think so
2016-03-03 16:52:21 fib1618: MID breadth MCO is now at levels not seen since the 2011 lows
2016-03-03 16:52:26 fib1618: and higher than the 2009 lows
2016-03-03 16:52:40 fib1618: whoops
2016-03-03 16:52:42 fib1618: strike that
2016-03-03 16:52:53 fib1618: there was a higher point in late 2008
2016-03-03 16:53:11 fib1618: too much money moving in now
2016-03-03 16:53:21 fib1618: this is the fresh money we were looking for last Tuesday
2016-03-03 16:53:28 fib1618: and saw signs of it on Thursday
2016-03-03 16:54:02 fib1618: upside breakout as well in the SML breadth MCSUM
2016-03-03 16:54:08 fib1618: both above the zero line
2016-03-03 16:54:13 fib1618: and the highs of late December
2016-03-03 16:54:24 fib1618: and with it, a major double bottom in prices
2016-03-03 16:54:52 fib1618: price pattern breakout as well
2016-03-03 16:55:08 fib1618: and since we've reached our target from last week of 660
2016-03-03 16:55:27 fib1618: we're now cleared to move to 710
2016-03-03 16:55:49 fib1618: or about 1150 on the RUT
2016-03-03 16:56:12 fib1618: oh...Tuesday
2016-03-03 16:56:15 fib1618: I get it!
2016-03-03 16:56:20 fib1618: the market got clarity
2016-03-03 16:56:24 fib1618: Super Tuesday
2016-03-03 16:56:46 fib1618: the itty bitty problem though
2016-03-03 16:57:01 fib1618: is that we don't know what's going to happen on the left side of the aisle
2016-03-03 16:57:05 fib1618: between you and me
2016-03-03 16:57:23 fib1618: I've been telling people for months now it's likely to be a Biden/Warren ticket
2016-03-03 16:57:28 fib1618: I still believe this
2016-03-03 16:57:34 fib1618: but evidently
2016-03-03 16:57:56 fib1618: traders may be getting comfortable with Trump as the nominee
2016-03-03 16:58:01 fib1618: and are adding accordingly
2016-03-03 16:58:11 fib1618: if this is right
2016-03-03 16:58:28 fib1618: we'll see the market continue higher early next week after we get more states under our belt
2016-03-03 16:58:34 thespookyone: I have an IWM target of 112.50 How do you feel about that?
2016-03-03 16:58:37 fib1618: but this would make some sense
2016-03-03 16:58:41 fib1618: let me see
2016-03-03 16:59:04 fib1618: you would need to take out the early December highs
2016-03-03 16:59:10 fib1618: on the MCSUM
2016-03-03 16:59:18 fib1618: and then you would have enough behind you to do so
2016-03-03 16:59:32 fib1618: let me check something
2016-03-03 16:59:48 fib1618: oh...I misread
2016-03-03 16:59:52 fib1618: you referred to IWM
2016-03-03 16:59:55 fib1618: no problem
2016-03-03 16:59:57 thespookyone: yes
2016-03-03 17:00:07 fib1618: 114 is the target
2016-03-03 17:00:14 thespookyone: wow, thx
2016-03-03 17:00:26 fib1618: here's the thing to remember
2016-03-03 17:00:53 turkey: that would fill all the gaps overhead.
2016-03-03 17:00:53 fib1618: it takes several layers of short term strength to provide enough stability for the intermediate term to provide even higher targets by breaking resistances and the zero line
2016-03-03 17:00:56 fib1618: yes
2016-03-03 17:01:02 fib1618: and with the current MCO readings
2016-03-03 17:01:06 fib1618: those gaps will be closed
2016-03-03 17:01:13 fib1618: this is a power move
2016-03-03 17:01:18 fib1618: overwhelming
2016-03-03 17:01:36 thespookyone: it really is
2016-03-03 17:01:45 fib1618: there is tremendous amounts of investment capital coming in right now
2016-03-03 17:02:06 fib1618: and we know this because...
2016-03-03 17:02:37 fib1618: we wouldn't be taking out these natural areas and horizontal resistance levels if we didn't have enough fuel to carry us through
2016-03-03 17:02:41 thespookyone: I've NEVER seen so many sweeps in large blocks on so many call options
2016-03-03 17:03:25 fib1618: the strength it takes for the MCO to stay above each level of natural resistance increases exponentially the deeper the MCO goes in that direction
2016-03-03 17:03:59 fib1618: so above +25...you wouldn't need as much fuel expansion as you would at +75
2016-03-03 17:04:03 fib1618: or +100
2016-03-03 17:04:13 fib1618: again
2016-03-03 17:05:03 fib1618: the MCO is an accelerometer
2016-03-03 17:05:41 fib1618: it measures the "g-forces" that is being exerted on supply and demand
2016-03-03 17:05:52 fib1618: the more g-forces you have
2016-03-03 17:05:58 fib1618: the greater the acceleration
2016-03-03 17:06:07 fib1618: the greater the acceleration
2016-03-03 17:06:31 fib1618: the further the object will travel even after this same fuel is cut off as momentum of the thrust takes over
2016-03-03 17:06:44 fib1618: keep this up
2016-03-03 17:06:50 fib1618: and we could overheat
2016-03-03 17:07:04 fib1618: but even if that happens
2016-03-03 17:07:41 fib1618: we'll continue to move in this same direction until an equal and opposite force can have its affect on the object
2016-03-03 17:07:47 fib1618: Newton's Law
2016-03-03 17:07:55 fib1618: this is all physics
2016-03-03 17:08:04 fib1618: nothing more...nothing less
2016-03-03 17:08:12 thespookyone: the market ha done a beautiful job of correcting on the fly
2016-03-03 17:08:14 fib1618: as money continues to flood the market
2016-03-03 17:09:13 fib1618: these same funds will move into more and more areas of supply
2016-03-03 17:09:22 fib1618: and this demand will push prices higher
2016-03-03 17:09:40 fib1618: sort of like a marina between low and high tide
2016-03-03 17:10:27 fib1618: the "not so deserving" boats furthest from the shoreline will also begin to rise as more and more money reaches all areas
2016-03-03 17:10:33 fib1618: we see this now in the small caps
2016-03-03 17:10:36 fib1618: and the NASDAQ
2016-03-03 17:10:57 fib1618: as these "less deserving" issues become attractive again
2016-03-03 17:11:04 fib1618: and the only way that happens is...
2016-03-03 17:11:35 fib1618: there is more liquidity than can be absorbed within all of the asset classes
2016-03-03 17:11:39 fib1618: this is why gold is rising now
2016-03-03 17:11:48 fib1618: as there is now excess liquidity
2016-03-03 17:12:04 fib1618: and this excess finds a home in the most solid asset of them all
2016-03-03 17:12:16 fib1618: while it waits to be put to work
2016-03-03 17:12:28 fib1618: a savings account, if you will
2016-03-03 17:12:40 fib1618: back to the charts
2016-03-03 17:12:59 fib1618: what?
2016-03-03 17:13:07 fib1618: the TM breadth MCO is at +94??
2016-03-03 17:13:20 fib1618: wholly molly!
2016-03-03 17:13:38 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCSUM is moving up and through the zero line
2016-03-03 17:13:46 fib1618: Friday should be a good up day
2016-03-03 17:14:11 fib1618: target for the Wilshire still at 20,750
2016-03-03 17:14:45 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO is now at its highest levels since...
2016-03-03 17:14:49 fib1618: you guessed it
2016-03-03 17:14:52 fib1618: 2009
2016-03-03 17:15:01 fib1618: unbelievable
2016-03-03 17:15:12 fib1618: let's see how the volume side is doing
2016-03-03 17:15:35 fib1618: oh my
2016-03-03 17:15:58 fib1618: both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCSUM's are going to jointly move up and through their zero lines on Friday
2016-03-03 17:16:15 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCSUM did so today
2016-03-03 17:16:36 fib1618: NDX volume MCSUM did so on...Tuesday
2016-03-03 17:16:56 fib1618: nope...make that yesterday
2016-03-03 17:17:17 fib1618: SPX volume tomorrow
2016-03-03 17:18:00 fib1618: a strong day on Friday and the OEX volume MCSUM will be able to move to the -250 level
2016-03-03 17:18:23 fib1618: Dow volume MCSUM is now above its zero line
2016-03-03 17:18:44 fib1618: MID volume MCSUM should cross tomorrow
2016-03-03 17:18:52 fib1618: could be a really big up day on Friday
2016-03-03 17:19:10 fib1618: oh my goodness!
2016-03-03 17:19:14 fib1618: look at the SML volume MCSUM!
2016-03-03 17:19:17 fib1618: and the MCO!
2016-03-03 17:19:50 thespookyone: sweet!
2016-03-03 17:19:57 fib1618: and the TM volume MCSUM also crossed above its zero line today
2016-03-03 17:19:58 fib1618: wow
2016-03-03 17:20:13 fib1618: this is NOT just the FED in play here
2016-03-03 17:20:21 fib1618: something big is brewing
2016-03-03 17:20:44 fib1618: it's rare when we see this kind of strength
2016-03-03 17:20:56 fib1618: and almost always at major bottoms
2016-03-03 17:21:11 fib1618: remember all those really high TRIN readings above 3.00 last month?
2016-03-03 17:21:35 fib1618: let's go back and check the breadth sectors
2016-03-03 17:22:17 fib1618: absolutely textbook look of a complex bullish structure in the XLY breadth MCO
2016-03-03 17:22:32 fib1618: so we should remain fully long there
2016-03-03 17:23:23 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCSUM is now at the +897 level as it moves toward its next target of +1000
2016-03-03 17:23:32 fib1618: finally!
2016-03-03 17:23:36 fib1618: buy signal on the XLE
2016-03-03 17:24:08 fib1618: as the XLE breadth MCO moved above the highs of late January
2016-03-03 17:24:12 fib1618: cover shorts there
2016-03-03 17:24:36 fib1618: and there should be no problem slicing through the XLE breadth MCSUM zero line tomorrow
2016-03-03 17:24:56 fib1618: with any move above the early November highs in the MCSUM
2016-03-03 17:25:00 fib1618: the upside target would be
2016-03-03 17:25:13 fib1618: for the MCO...$62
2016-03-03 17:25:17 fib1618: MCSUM...$68
2016-03-03 17:25:35 thespookyone: too funny, I had $65
2016-03-03 17:25:51 fib1618: and if the XLE breadth MCO can take out the early October highs
2016-03-03 17:26:03 fib1618: then $76
2016-03-03 17:26:08 fib1618: Linda...you there?
2016-03-03 17:26:10 thespookyone: wow
2016-03-03 17:26:14 turkey: yes
2016-03-03 17:26:21 fib1618: you called this one...kudos!
2016-03-03 17:26:41 fib1618: super job
2016-03-03 17:26:44 thespookyone: I remember too. Well done!
2016-03-03 17:26:47 turkey: thanks, I just went short energy stocks on the close...just a trade though.. yikes. LOL
2016-03-03 17:27:20 turkey: thanks guys....I am all over the place.
2016-03-03 17:27:24 fib1618: hehe
2016-03-03 17:27:33 fib1618: but you see what's going on here
2016-03-03 17:27:38 fib1618: and you know what happens
2016-03-03 17:27:44 fib1618: just watch your stops
2016-03-03 17:27:55 fib1618: the XLF is now "all better"
2016-03-03 17:28:00 fib1618: with higher highs in the XLF breadth MCO
2016-03-03 17:28:18 fib1618: and the XLF breadth MCSUM should have no problem moving above its two levels of resistance on Friday
2016-03-03 17:28:21 fib1618: so...it would seem
2016-03-03 17:28:36 fib1618: that a large amount of whatever happens to the upside from here
2016-03-03 17:28:43 turkey: always....just think a day or two to relieve overbought and cnbc was drooling over energy stocks today...
2016-03-03 17:28:47 fib1618: will have both energy and financial issues supporting it
2016-03-03 17:28:56 fib1618: well...that could be too
2016-03-03 17:29:00 fib1618: however
2016-03-03 17:29:11 fib1618: with many of the broader based MCSUM's knocking on their zero line doors
2016-03-03 17:29:15 fib1618: and the MCO's as high as they are
2016-03-03 17:29:22 fib1618: we will cross above zero on Friday
2016-03-03 17:29:44 fib1618: and usually...prices are the winners as the majority shifts from bear to bull
2016-03-03 17:29:57 fib1618: and they'll have the jobs numbers to point to
2016-03-03 17:30:15 fib1618: which will make the public "understand" why it happened
2016-03-03 17:30:17 fib1618: [smile]
2016-03-03 17:30:46 fib1618: XLV breadth MCSUM also at its zero line
2016-03-03 17:31:03 fib1618: so many areas about to see control move from bear to bull
2016-03-03 17:31:08 fib1618: which usually means
2016-03-03 17:31:20 fib1618: the unwilling short traders are about to cover with both hands
2016-03-03 17:31:45 fib1618: the XLI breadth MCO and MCSUM remain very strong here
2016-03-03 17:32:25 fib1618: and it would seem that we're about to move above the early November highs in the XLI breadth MCSUM on Friday
2016-03-03 17:32:40 fib1618: XLB breadth MCSUM did so today
2016-03-03 17:33:01 fib1618: AND above the +250 level
2016-03-03 17:33:23 fib1618: so let's go for $50 there
2016-03-03 17:33:40 fib1618: wow
2016-03-03 17:33:48 tuna: interesting XLI Sum is 500 and Dow Sum is 250
2016-03-03 17:33:55 fib1618: XLK breadth MCSUM crossed above the +500 level today
2016-03-03 17:34:05 fib1618: the Dow is only 30 issues
2016-03-03 17:34:27 fib1618: and the generals only come around once the battle's been won
2016-03-03 17:34:39 fib1618: let's see how the TRAN is doing
2016-03-03 17:34:44 tuna: awesome
2016-03-03 17:35:03 fib1618: up 1000 points in a month
2016-03-03 17:35:07 fib1618: that's amazing
2016-03-03 17:35:34 thespookyone: hey - this was a HAPPY Vegas [smile]
2016-03-03 17:35:39 fib1618: [smile]
2016-03-03 17:35:46 fib1618: I was amazed at the show
2016-03-03 17:35:56 fib1618: there was no hesitation to spend
2016-03-03 17:36:03 fib1618: people just sat down and wrote
2016-03-03 17:36:08 thespookyone: super!
2016-03-03 17:36:16 fib1618: well...evidently
2016-03-03 17:36:23 fib1618: they're "feeling" good
2016-03-03 17:36:29 fib1618: and so is the market it would seem
2016-03-03 17:37:21 fib1618: and the XLU breadth MCSUM is doing something historic here
2016-03-03 17:37:36 fib1618: as it continues to move sideways at the +1500 level
2016-03-03 17:37:49 fib1618: and this should keep prices from seeing any important decline for a while
2016-03-03 17:37:51 fib1618: so...
2016-03-03 17:38:06 turkey: So funny, remember I told you my son, a senior in college had the job offer pulled at a pre IPO cloud start up...they called again to say they will probably reinstate the job but he has so many other offers he will probably refuse. I swear I could time the market off of this alone.
2016-03-03 17:38:13 fib1618: it would seem that we have seen a correctional low in the market
2016-03-03 17:38:29 fib1618: [smile]
2016-03-03 17:38:58 fib1618: however
2016-03-03 17:39:36 fib1618: we're also quite "overbought" short term to where a shut down of this same fuel source is highly likely to occur in the next few days
2016-03-03 17:39:57 fib1618: this "shut down" process would have the same effect as it would in a rocket
2016-03-03 17:40:14 fib1618: with bodies slamming forward and back in quick succession
2016-03-03 17:40:26 fib1618: and from where a pause in prices would be likely
2016-03-03 17:40:41 fib1618: before momentum would take over and drive prices to higher highs
2016-03-03 17:41:01 fib1618: also remember that the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line was at all time highs last Thursday
2016-03-03 17:41:19 fib1618: and this PROMISES us that we will see higher stock prices in the not too distant future
2016-03-03 17:41:32 fib1618: we also had all new time highs in the NYSE preferred's
2016-03-03 17:41:52 fib1618: the Junk Bond and Investment Grade bonds also continue to show good money flow now
2016-03-03 17:42:20 fib1618: and the NYSE Specialty CEF advance/decline line also broke out
2016-03-03 17:42:34 fib1618: so this is good news over all for the US markets
2016-03-03 17:42:40 fib1618: then again
2016-03-03 17:42:55 fib1618: the global markets were not singing the praises as yet of a bullish move
2016-03-03 17:43:04 fib1618: so we'll see how those areas look this weekend
2016-03-03 17:43:10 fib1618: OBV's
2016-03-03 17:43:46 fib1618: VTO's are now approaching their "overbought" levels
2016-03-03 17:43:53 fib1618: and like we pointed to last week
2016-03-03 17:44:00 fib1618: once we get those levels
2016-03-03 17:44:31 fib1618: it's very likely that we'll see this unbelievable amount of capital slow its accelerated pace
2016-03-03 17:44:54 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .72
2016-03-03 17:45:05 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.05
2016-03-03 17:45:28 fib1618: after moving to "oversold" on Monday
2016-03-03 17:45:41 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .94
2016-03-03 17:46:04 fib1618: Open 10 now neutral (if you an believe that) at .89
2016-03-03 17:46:11 fib1618: so correcting on the fly
2016-03-03 17:46:31 fib1618: TM TRIN at .94
2016-03-03 17:46:37 fib1618: with an Open 10 at .96
2016-03-03 17:46:42 fib1618: so...
2016-03-03 17:46:52 fib1618: we're nowhere "overbought" there
2016-03-03 17:47:25 fib1618: and this will allow prices to jump higher when combined with the MCSUM zero line triggers
2016-03-03 17:47:30 fib1618: I'm impressed
2016-03-03 17:47:38 fib1618: let me check futures
2016-03-03 17:48:11 fib1618: flat
2016-03-03 17:48:22 fib1618: but Brent crude is at $37!
2016-03-03 17:48:34 fib1618: price of 87 here went up .14 overnight today
2016-03-03 17:48:51 fib1618: so...
2016-03-03 17:48:59 fib1618: could be quite a day on Friday
2016-03-03 17:49:22 fib1618: and it might provide a peak in the market for now
2016-03-03 17:49:49 fib1618: as anything news worthy brings out the last of those who had stood aside up to this point
2016-03-03 17:49:59 fib1618: but longer term
2016-03-03 17:50:27 fib1618: the buyers are about to take full control for the first time since July
2016-03-03 17:50:58 fib1618: and all depending how much is left in the fuel tank
2016-03-03 17:51:18 fib1618: will give us higher objectives to work with for the rest of the month
2016-03-03 17:51:38 fib1618: OPEX is not until the 18th
2016-03-03 17:52:20 fib1618: so we're likely now to see a bullish bias in prices into quadruple witching
2016-03-03 17:52:39 fib1618: anything else?
2016-03-03 17:52:59 fib1618: notice also
2016-03-03 17:53:25 fib1618: how much easier it is for prices to move north now as the MCSUM's come closer to, and in some cases, above their zero lines
2016-03-03 17:53:38 fib1618: this is why "control" is everything in market trading
2016-03-03 17:54:17 fib1618: going to check the A/D lines and we'll call it a night
2016-03-03 17:55:00 fib1618: strongest are the NYSE Composite
2016-03-03 17:55:28 fib1618: SPX
2016-03-03 17:55:29 fib1618: and MID
2016-03-03 17:55:40 fib1618: so lots of options
2016-03-03 17:55:48 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-03-03 17:55:55 thespookyone: thx
2016-03-03 17:56:03 turkey: wait, I want credit for calling a double bottom here in natural gas...I just want the kudos..ha ha. It's the last car on the roller coaster...need to rally before we can get a top..check out January.
2016-03-03 17:56:23 fib1618: Yes...kudos for you on that too!
2016-03-03 17:56:27 fib1618: [smile]
2016-03-03 17:56:33 turkey: thanks for all your work...I really appreciate it!
2016-03-03 17:56:40 fib1618: thanks for sharing yours!
2016-03-03 17:56:50 fib1618: OK...everyone have a great weekend
2016-03-03 17:56:57 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2016-03-03 17:56:59 fib1618: good night
2016-03-03 17:57:56 turkey: good night


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