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Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-03-31 16:00:46 fib1618: good day
2016-03-31 16:00:49 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-03-31 16:01:04 thespookyone: fine, a bit bored, slow trading...
2016-03-31 16:02:16 fib1618: hehe
2016-03-31 16:02:22 fib1618: you're so spoiled
2016-03-31 16:02:39 thespookyone: bet, LOL
2016-03-31 16:02:42 fib1618: the market gave you some follow through yesterday
2016-03-31 16:02:50 fib1618: just to chop away today
2016-03-31 16:03:55 fib1618: OK...any questions, comments or additional complaints before we get started???
2016-03-31 16:04:05 thespookyone: nope
2016-03-31 16:04:12 fib1618: you sure?
2016-03-31 16:04:14 fib1618: [smile]
2016-03-31 16:04:23 fib1618: get it all out now
2016-03-31 16:04:26 fib1618: it's healthy
2016-03-31 16:05:00 thespookyone: yep
2016-03-31 16:06:24 fib1618: OK..let's get SC up and get started
2016-03-31 16:07:07 fib1618: after moving up to the declining tops line on Tuesday
2016-03-31 16:07:15 fib1618: and providing a small point change on Wednesday
2016-03-31 16:07:22 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved lower today
2016-03-31 16:07:35 fib1618: and away from this line of important resistance for the buyers
2016-03-31 16:08:11 fib1618: however both the MCO components and the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM remain positive
2016-03-31 16:08:31 fib1618: as the MCSUM has now reached the +874 level on its way to +1000
2016-03-31 16:08:50 fib1618: looking at the NYA price chart
2016-03-31 16:08:57 fib1618: and we see that we had a rally failure on Wednesday
2016-03-31 16:09:12 fib1618: no thanks to our not being able to move above the declining tops line on the breadth MCO
2016-03-31 16:09:48 fib1618: and we came real close to filling the pattern gap created by Wednesday's attempt to move to new highs
2016-03-31 16:10:03 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-03-31 16:10:29 fib1618: and we see that we had our second day in a row of a small point change
2016-03-31 16:10:44 fib1618: showing that buyers and sellers are indecisive at this time
2016-03-31 16:11:09 fib1618: and this leads to, what Lew refers to as, "boring, slow" trading
2016-03-31 16:11:34 fib1618: as with the CO MCO
2016-03-31 16:12:10 fib1618: we remain below the declining tops line that's controlling the Composite MCO pattern from the early March peak
2016-03-31 16:12:21 fib1618: and until this line of negative influence is violated
2016-03-31 16:12:41 fib1618: the buyers will have a bit of a hard time in making any good upside headway
2016-03-31 16:13:20 fib1618: and with our elevated readings on the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM now at the +1063 level
2016-03-31 16:13:44 fib1618: the sellers are also going to have their own challenges in moving prices in their direction as well
2016-03-31 16:13:49 fib1618: that said
2016-03-31 16:14:08 fib1618: as long as both the MCO and the Components remain above their zero lines
2016-03-31 16:14:17 fib1618: the buyers will have control of the pricing structure
2016-03-31 16:14:20 fib1618: which also means
2016-03-31 16:14:34 fib1618: any surprises will tend to be that of upside moves
2016-03-31 16:14:46 fib1618: being that it's the path of least resistance
2016-03-31 16:15:22 fib1618: unlike the NYSE MCO's
2016-03-31 16:15:38 fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCO did break above its declining tops line on Wednesday
2016-03-31 16:15:59 fib1618: and provided us with an obligatory snapback back toward this line of the breakout today
2016-03-31 16:16:26 fib1618: as with most of the MCO's at this time
2016-03-31 16:16:56 fib1618: it will be important that we see moves back above the +25 level in order for the buyers to have any real traction in driving prices toward higher highs
2016-03-31 16:17:26 fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM currently has a reading of +350
2016-03-31 16:17:52 fib1618: so it's about 150 data points from reaching its upside technical objective of the +500 level
2016-03-31 16:18:19 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2016-03-31 16:18:28 fib1618: and here too we see that we broke above the declining tops line
2016-03-31 16:18:59 fib1618: but we're still below the horizontal double top highs seen in the middle part of March
2016-03-31 16:19:23 fib1618: so now that we relieved any downside pressure from the sellers
2016-03-31 16:20:18 fib1618: it will be up to the buyers to break above this horizontal resistance in order for prices to move without any friction to the upside
2016-03-31 16:20:34 fib1618: otherwise we're stuck in a trading range
2016-03-31 16:20:59 fib1618: and that would be OK too since it would compliment our expectation of a tradable buy point sometime in the next two weeks
2016-03-31 16:21:27 fib1618: always good to remember that tradable lows can happen in two ways
2016-03-31 16:21:39 fib1618: either by moving down and into this nesting of lows
2016-03-31 16:21:52 fib1618: or by moving up and out of a trading range after a bit of digestion
2016-03-31 16:21:57 fib1618: at this point
2016-03-31 16:22:18 fib1618: it looks like the later is the preferred expectation given the current amplitudes in the breadth MCSUM's
2016-03-31 16:22:44 fib1618: looking at the NDX price chart itself
2016-03-31 16:23:21 fib1618: and we can see how important this internal double top formation is to the price pattern
2016-03-31 16:23:32 fib1618: for until we're able to conquer this resistance
2016-03-31 16:23:49 fib1618: the downside price gap seen in January will not be able to be filled
2016-03-31 16:24:23 fib1618: and, in essence, capping the trading pattern right at the upside price targets given by the MCO back last month
2016-03-31 16:24:59 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2016-03-31 16:25:26 fib1618: and here we have a pattern that is still a ways away from challenging its declining tops line
2016-03-31 16:25:32 fib1618: and this is a near term problem for the bulls
2016-03-31 16:26:23 fib1618: since it will take a simultaneous breakout of all of the indices in order for prices to have the momentum to reach their price highs seen in the fall period
2016-03-31 16:27:02 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCSUM though remains nicely "overbought" here with a reading of +1082
2016-03-31 16:27:41 fib1618: and that should continue to provide a nice cushion to the price pattern in case of any disappointment or bearish ambush that may be news related
2016-03-31 16:28:13 fib1618: after reaching the +26 level on Tuesday
2016-03-31 16:28:20 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO remains weak here
2016-03-31 16:28:44 fib1618: which is why the SPX breadth MCO is having its issues in attaining the strength needed to challenging its declining tops
2016-03-31 16:28:56 fib1618: with a reading today of +3
2016-03-31 16:29:09 fib1618: along with a snapback of the 10% Trend to the 5% Trend
2016-03-31 16:29:23 fib1618: the "expectation" for Friday is for a bounce attempt
2016-03-31 16:29:42 fib1618: but since we already moved down and through the MCO zero line last week
2016-03-31 16:30:17 fib1618: the more reasonable outcome is for a move back below the zero to challenge this same low from last week
2016-03-31 16:30:54 fib1618: and that the OEX components will remain above their zero lines providing internal bull divergence from where prices will be able to stabilize
2016-03-31 16:31:00 fib1618: so either way here
2016-03-31 16:31:12 fib1618: things continue to look buoyant
2016-03-31 16:31:27 fib1618: with the path of least resistance continuing with the buyers
2016-03-31 16:32:00 fib1618: pretty much the same technical challenges right now with the Dow breadth MCO and MCSUM
2016-03-31 16:32:40 fib1618: while the Dow itself met its upside target of 17,800 intraday on Wednesday before selling off
2016-03-31 16:32:56 fib1618: with the Dow breadth MCSUM now supporting a reading of +947
2016-03-31 16:33:18 fib1618: unless there is a surge of fresh cash by early next week
2016-03-31 16:33:27 fib1618: it would appear that we have a cap in place price wise
2016-03-31 16:33:49 fib1618: and that some sort of trading range will develop at just below the highs seen late last year
2016-03-31 16:34:27 fib1618: a digestion zone...a place to reset, regroup, and then attempt to move forward again once the rest is past
2016-03-31 16:35:16 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO is sliding south right along its declining tops line
2016-03-31 16:35:53 fib1618: while the MID MCO components remain nicely elevated above its zero line
2016-03-31 16:36:28 fib1618: and the MID breadth MCSUM has a reading of +1078
2016-03-31 16:36:52 fib1618: looks like what we thought on Tuesday...a digestion period while traders wait for more information
2016-03-31 16:37:19 fib1618: timing wise, one would think it would be tomorrow's jobs data
2016-03-31 16:37:30 fib1618: but we never really know what it might be to kick things off
2016-03-31 16:37:40 fib1618: a quick look at what's expected...
2016-03-31 16:38:41 fib1618: and I don't know what the consensus is because there's no link
2016-03-31 16:38:48 fib1618: but we also have consumer sentiment and ISM manufacturing on Friday as well
2016-03-31 16:39:13 fib1618: so pick your poison, I suppose
2016-03-31 16:39:27 fib1618: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2016-03-31 16:40:02 fib1618: and here Tuesday's break above its trendline resistance has yielded very little internally
2016-03-31 16:40:29 fib1618: and now that the SML breadth MCSUM has reached the +740 level
2016-03-31 16:41:32 fib1618: we should have a good feel of what to expect sooner than later as to whether we make or break(down) at the +750 level
2016-03-31 16:42:11 fib1618: the elevated readings in the SML components does suggest a positive outcome
2016-03-31 16:42:16 fib1618: but on the flip side
2016-03-31 16:42:52 fib1618: we have now transverse some 1750 MCSUM data points
2016-03-31 16:43:13 fib1618: and unless this is a longer term kick off as the MCO data has been suggesting
2016-03-31 16:43:33 fib1618: we should have no problem in continuing the current journey northward
2016-03-31 16:43:55 fib1618: so a failure here would be insightful for what to look for over the next 2 weeks
2016-03-31 16:48:25 fib1618: moving to the TM breadth MCO
2016-03-31 16:48:59 fib1618: and we're also saw a second straight day of small point congestion in this MCO
2016-03-31 16:49:19 fib1618: but with the TM MCO components remaining nicely above their zero lines
2016-03-31 16:49:33 fib1618: we have to give any near term doubt to the buyers at this point
2016-03-31 16:49:56 fib1618: and watch what happens next week as the +750 level will become our focus point in the TM breadth MCSUM pattern
2016-03-31 16:49:57 fib1618: so...
2016-03-31 16:50:04 fib1618: as we kind of expected on Tuesday
2016-03-31 16:51:01 fib1618: we continue to see chop, though volatility has contracted a bit, with a bullish bias to the pattern structures
2016-03-31 16:51:13 fib1618: as we have pointed to several times now
2016-03-31 16:51:48 fib1618: prices will continue to have some problems moving higher from here as long as the MCO declining tops remain intact
2016-03-31 16:51:59 fib1618: but with the MCSUM's as elevated as they are
2016-03-31 16:52:06 fib1618: this will keep any downside retracement to a minimum
2016-03-31 16:52:12 fib1618: and so...we churn
2016-03-31 16:52:21 fib1618: moving to the sectors
2016-03-31 16:53:00 fib1618: and we see that the XLY breadth MCO did break above its declining tops line on Wednesday
2016-03-31 16:53:28 fib1618: but until we can get above the +61 level seen in early March
2016-03-31 16:53:43 fib1618: prices will continue to have an upward bias
2016-03-31 16:54:00 fib1618: but the climb will tend to be erratic...with some effort
2016-03-31 16:54:19 fib1618: as mentioned briefly on Tuesday
2016-03-31 16:54:28 fib1618: upside price targets here on the XLY have been met now
2016-03-31 16:54:42 fib1618: so a pause to refresh sure wouldn't hurt
2016-03-31 16:55:04 fib1618: the XLP moved to another all time closing high on Wednesday
2016-03-31 16:55:48 fib1618: but a failure to move above the mid March highs in the XLP breadth MCO slammed this MCO back to the zero line today
2016-03-31 16:56:40 fib1618: with the result seen clearly on the XLP breadth MCSUM as it moves net sideways
2016-03-31 16:57:05 fib1618: needless to say, it's very difficult for prices to continue to move higher if money is moving sideways
2016-03-31 16:57:21 fib1618: looking at the XLP components
2016-03-31 16:57:31 fib1618: and the 10% has also snapped back to the 5% Trend
2016-03-31 16:57:48 fib1618: so a technical bounce would be the near term expectation on Friday
2016-03-31 16:58:12 fib1618: moving to the XLE breadth MCO
2016-03-31 16:58:36 fib1618: and last week's move below the zero line was finally overcome today
2016-03-31 16:59:10 fib1618: this taking place after our expected challenge of last week's low on Tuesday
2016-03-31 17:00:05 fib1618: well..more like this was discussed last Thursday as being likely to happen
2016-03-31 17:00:08 fib1618: but happen, it did
2016-03-31 17:00:46 fib1618: now...with the XLE components moving back to a positive crossover configuration today
2016-03-31 17:01:19 fib1618: the expectation for the next couple of days is for another test of resistance at the $64 level
2016-03-31 17:01:38 fib1618: and if this happens
2016-03-31 17:02:01 fib1618: this would also coincide with a successful test of the +1000 level on the XLE breadth MCSUM
2016-03-31 17:02:27 fib1618: so..."one for all and all for one" would be needed and we should then see $64 taken out
2016-03-31 17:02:58 fib1618: and wind up at the $66 level where we should have better resistance for the sellers to play with
2016-03-31 17:03:50 fib1618: the XLF breadth MCO is showing a simple snapback up to the zero line now complete
2016-03-31 17:03:57 fib1618: so one side is about to take control
2016-03-31 17:04:09 fib1618: with the XLF components still above their zero lines though
2016-03-31 17:04:24 fib1618: the odds have to go with the buyers here to make some sort of stand
2016-03-31 17:04:51 fib1618: but it might run into a wall at $23
2016-03-31 17:05:04 fib1618: still not enough here to play with...better fish to fry
2016-03-31 17:05:52 fib1618: just by looking at the XLV breadth MCSUM pretty much tells you all you want to know about the XLV price chart itself
2016-03-31 17:06:01 fib1618: as there's no leadership in either direction right now
2016-03-31 17:06:54 fib1618: though the XLV breadth MCO itself is giving a small indication that the buyers may be showing a bit more sass right now
2016-03-31 17:07:12 fib1618: as the pattern has broken above the declining tops line
2016-03-31 17:07:33 fib1618: and this took place with a simple bottom above a bottom textural structure
2016-03-31 17:08:46 fib1618: so a buy stop of .10 above yesterday's intraday rally failure highs would probably be enough to push prices to the $71 level...or about 5%
2016-03-31 17:08:52 fib1618: worth watching
2016-03-31 17:09:42 fib1618: moving to the XLI price chart
2016-03-31 17:09:51 fib1618: and we remain less than 2 points from its all time highs
2016-03-31 17:10:18 fib1618: both the MCO components and XLI breadth MCSUM remain very strong here
2016-03-31 17:10:51 fib1618: while the XLI breadth MCO found resistance at the +45 level on Wednesday
2016-03-31 17:10:59 fib1618: pattern there looks fatigued
2016-03-31 17:11:03 fib1618: and why not after such an extended move?
2016-03-31 17:11:23 fib1618: but as long as the XLI breadth zero line holds
2016-03-31 17:11:36 fib1618: any and all surprises will remain with the upside
2016-03-31 17:11:46 fib1618: like we talked about on Tuesday
2016-03-31 17:11:52 fib1618: it's all up to volume here
2016-03-31 17:12:32 fib1618: and when we talk about volume, we're talking quality (plurality) and not quantity (the number of shares traded)
2016-03-31 17:12:55 fib1618: though an above average daily volume number when making new highs here shouldn't be faded either
2016-03-31 17:14:04 fib1618: the XLB breadth MCO sure has familiar look to it when we compare it to the XLI breadth MCO
2016-03-31 17:14:31 fib1618: as does its MCSUM...both in numbers and pattern
2016-03-31 17:15:30 fib1618: that would suggest that the material stocks are doing more than their lion share of the work as they apply toward industrial "output"
2016-03-31 17:16:13 fib1618: the XLK price structure continues to hold on to Tuesday's upside break out to the upside
2016-03-31 17:16:52 fib1618: but it's going to take a break above the XLK breadth MCO declining tops line to carry prices above this break out level
2016-03-31 17:16:58 fib1618: otherwise...the gap will be filled
2016-03-31 17:17:27 fib1618: this gives a good example of when we talk about prices moving to new high levels and either staying there or failing
2016-03-31 17:18:18 fib1618: without money providing this need of underlying support, prices can only sag
2016-03-31 17:18:35 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCSUM is now at the +1387 level
2016-03-31 17:18:49 fib1618: on its way to +1500
2016-03-31 17:19:06 fib1618: we continue to see new all time price highs in the XLU index
2016-03-31 17:19:35 fib1618: and with the XLU breadth MCSUM at such a high level +2425
2016-03-31 17:20:44 fib1618: all it takes is a slight push of money flow to keep the momentum going...sort of like touching a balloon with your finger as it floats in the air
2016-03-31 17:20:51 fib1618: so...
2016-03-31 17:21:03 fib1618: money flow continues to support prices at this time
2016-03-31 17:21:40 fib1618: though in some cases...this flow of investment capital is starting to wane a bit now
2016-03-31 17:22:10 fib1618: could be all of the willing and unwilling have committed and we're looking for fresh funds
2016-03-31 17:22:28 fib1618: and/or waiting for more economic information to trade by
2016-03-31 17:22:31 fib1618: in either case
2016-03-31 17:22:38 fib1618: the bulls remain in control
2016-03-31 17:22:58 fib1618: and until this changes, the path of least resistance will remain higher
2016-03-31 17:23:38 fib1618: CVI's are mixed...probably due to indecision
2016-03-31 17:24:01 fib1618: as expected...the STVO's bounced off of their zero lines on Wednesday
2016-03-31 17:24:27 fib1618: and the VTO's continue to suggest that the current advancing price structure remains strong
2016-03-31 17:24:44 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.21
2016-03-31 17:24:49 fib1618: still some selling here
2016-03-31 17:24:58 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.06
2016-03-31 17:25:07 fib1618: after being "oversold" on Wednesday
2016-03-31 17:25:24 fib1618: aka...correcting on the fly
2016-03-31 17:25:35 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .90
2016-03-31 17:25:43 fib1618: Open 10 at .89
2016-03-31 17:25:52 fib1618: neutral...with one side to take near term control
2016-03-31 17:26:01 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.03
2016-03-31 17:26:14 fib1618: Open 10 at .96
2016-03-31 17:26:29 fib1618: so pretty much as we expected last Sunday
2016-03-31 17:26:41 fib1618: with choppy/volatile price behavior
2016-03-31 17:26:45 fib1618: with a bullish bias
2016-03-31 17:27:12 fib1618: and now that the plates are on the table are "set" for whatever Friday may bring
2016-03-31 17:27:17 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2016-03-31 17:27:19 fib1618: one moment
2016-03-31 17:27:55 fib1618: just checked the yield on the 10 at 30 day lows
2016-03-31 17:28:22 fib1618: so "boys and girls in the pit" are looking for inline or weak numbers in the morning
2016-03-31 17:28:31 fib1618: no matter
2016-03-31 17:28:52 fib1618: the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line has been telling us for weeks now that interest rates are likely to remain soft
2016-03-31 17:30:06 fib1618: shhh...
2016-03-31 17:30:11 fib1618: don't let this get around
2016-03-31 17:30:13 fib1618: +30
2016-03-31 17:30:23 fib1618: "accumulate"
2016-03-31 17:30:40 fib1618: and we're getting some nice EMA support here as well
2016-03-31 17:30:50 fib1618: so now it's time to do your homework
2016-03-31 17:31:10 fib1618: and look for areas that are leading
2016-03-31 17:31:26 fib1618: for unless we get a big down day on Friday
2016-03-31 17:32:11 fib1618: it's a pretty good bet that we're going to get our first "go long" signal from the BETS since last year
2016-03-31 17:32:19 fib1618: we'll see
2016-03-31 17:32:23 fib1618: anything else?
2016-03-31 17:33:19 fib1618: 3:1 or better breadth plurality would be a good sign
2016-03-31 17:33:25 fib1618: but watch's the key
2016-03-31 17:34:20 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-03-31 17:34:24 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-03-31 17:34:28 fib1618: everyone have a super weekend
2016-03-31 17:34:38 fib1618: and we'll see how this all sorts out next Tuesday
2016-03-31 17:34:40 fib1618: good night

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