All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm

Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,558
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-03-31 16:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pleasant good day to you all!
2011-03-31 16:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-03-31 16:01:15 [Message] lard -> Chat: very good, thanks
2011-03-31 16:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fun ride, eh?
2011-03-31 16:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you never really know what's going to happen next
2011-03-31 16:02:02 [Message] lard -> Chat: it just keeps on going
2011-03-31 16:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and going and going
2011-03-31 16:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the "energizer" market!
2011-03-31 16:02:32 [Message] lard -> Chat: lol
2011-03-31 16:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who may had missed my post of yesterday
2011-03-31 16:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market rallied enough yesterday to break above MCO resistance which then canceled out any downside objectives we had...in this case...SPX 1234
2011-03-31 16:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it would appear another leg up is underway
2011-03-31 16:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the action in the SML leading the way as it has been for about a week now
2011-03-31 16:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know, it's funny
2011-03-31 16:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for several months now I kept telling certain folks that it would probably take a nuclear disaster to sidetrack this market
2011-03-31 16:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though I didn't mean it in a reactor way
2011-03-31 16:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am comparing the tsunami disaster as that of a nuclear bomb
2011-03-31 16:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and STILL...we didn't retrace more than 5 or 6%?
2011-03-31 16:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the most amazing market I've ever seen
2011-03-31 16:06:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: how do we end up with a trin of 2, on positive breadth?
2011-03-31 16:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume
2011-03-31 16:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably something like Citi
2011-03-31 16:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe...hmmm
2011-03-31 16:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I heard a rumor recently that C was going to have a 10:1 reverse split
2011-03-31 16:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it true?
2011-03-31 16:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if so...
2011-03-31 16:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could it be soon?
2011-03-31 16:07:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at the charts
2011-03-31 16:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not Citi
2011-03-31 16:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look a bit more
2011-03-31 16:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you say the TRIN is 2?
2011-03-31 16:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not finding any volume problems
2011-03-31 16:08:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that's what I had
2011-03-31 16:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1.98
2011-03-31 16:09:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-03-31 16:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2.00 at stockcharts
2011-03-31 16:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking
2011-03-31 16:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was more declining volume
2011-03-31 16:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking
2011-03-31 16:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep...1.98
2011-03-31 16:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just did the math
2011-03-31 16:11:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thks
2011-03-31 16:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hehe
2011-03-31 16:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wonder which stock(s) made up the down volume
2011-03-31 16:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's check xlf
2011-03-31 16:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing there
2011-03-31 16:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLE is marginable
2011-03-31 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know
2011-03-31 16:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would have to scan the issues
2011-03-31 16:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2011-03-31 16:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice correction on the fly
2011-03-31 16:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any other questions or comments before we get started??
2011-03-31 16:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we go then
2011-03-31 16:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking above horizontal resistance yesterday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO had a small point change today
2011-03-31 16:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components now challenging their February highs
2011-03-31 16:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so..still not really confirming the move so far
2011-03-31 16:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're in much better shape than they have been
2011-03-31 16:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless...all downside MCO price objectives have now been canceled
2011-03-31 16:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is now streaking higher
2011-03-31 16:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the further the individual gaps we see in the MCSUM, the more energy that is either coming in to or out of the market
2011-03-31 16:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have also closed our gap resistance area
2011-03-31 16:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which shouldn't at all be surprising given that the MCO moved to new highs
2011-03-31 16:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change tonight on the NYSE breadth MCO
2011-03-31 16:17:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading days
2011-03-31 16:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the current configurations
2011-03-31 16:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be at least a 1% move...but probably it will be closer to 2%
2011-03-31 16:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2011-03-31 16:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to take a page from a simple bar chart viewpoint
2011-03-31 16:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we see prices break above the early March congestion area
2011-03-31 16:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one shouldn't go all in at this stage
2011-03-31 16:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: true...breadth is leading price nicely
2011-03-31 16:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for added confirmation of this current move, a close above these same levels would be needed to "validate" the expectation
2011-03-31 16:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me...I moved 50% long yesterday
2011-03-31 16:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now waiting for more information to work with
2011-03-31 16:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the one hand
2011-03-31 16:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a technical snapback to what was previous overhead resistance on the MCO should be our next reasonable expectation
2011-03-31 16:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during this time, price patterns for those indices that have yet moved to new highs will have a chance to regroup before "proceeding"
2011-03-31 16:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on the other
2011-03-31 16:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything is once again coming together at a time in which the markets have been using to substantiate future stock values...the unemployment data
2011-03-31 16:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any indication of hiring that would be better than expected could push fresh funds into the market in a hurry
2011-03-31 16:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we also have the April 15th deadline for 401's and IRA's
2011-03-31 16:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seasonality wise
2011-03-31 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the beginning of the month tends to be a positive time
2011-03-31 16:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you have the usage of the market playing an "April Fools" joke no matter what the outcome would turn out to be
2011-03-31 16:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we continue to be in interesting times
2011-03-31 16:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as long as money flow remains positive
2011-03-31 16:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as technicians its our "duty" to follow it to where ever it may lead
2011-03-31 16:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...there are some problems here
2011-03-31 16:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the NDX price chart
2011-03-31 16:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not showing a lot of vigor here, is it?
2011-03-31 16:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of thing does smack of an Elliott B wave
2011-03-31 16:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we have now move to, and in a couple of cases, above the February highs, could this non confirmation between different classes of stock issues beg for some sort of shake out to reset the pattern?
2011-03-31 16:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a flat
2011-03-31 16:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be an irregular flat with the SML
2011-03-31 16:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the problem there is that the short term trend of breadth IS confirming these new highs
2011-03-31 16:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which shouldn't be happening in a B wave
2011-03-31 16:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's continue to look around
2011-03-31 16:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the NDX and SPX breadth MCO have satisfied a quick snapback to what was previous overhead resistance today
2011-03-31 16:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once again...a problem here is that the OEX breadth MCO has yet to move to new highs here
2011-03-31 16:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it's a multi national thing
2011-03-31 16:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time price highs today on the MID
2011-03-31 16:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you look at the close up of the price structure
2011-03-31 16:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it sure looks like it's impulsing to the upside
2011-03-31 16:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: move up...consolidate...move up...consolidate
2011-03-31 16:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: typical structure of a trending pricing structure
2011-03-31 16:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO is now highly "overbought" with a +83 reading
2011-03-31 16:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is more than enough for a breadth thrust
2011-03-31 16:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and an re-initiation of the uptrend
2011-03-31 16:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have to admire the beauty of the SML breadth MCSUM finding support at the zero line and moving higher
2011-03-31 16:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also never ceases to amaze me how this can occur in what is seemingly a walk in the park
2011-03-31 16:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how did the market know it was at zero?
2011-03-31 16:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course...the answer is that being the zero line, there was balance between buyers and sellers
2011-03-31 16:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one side was going to take control from this time of trading balance
2011-03-31 16:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bulls came back in
2011-03-31 16:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is great technical strength and should never be slighted
2011-03-31 16:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the near term job for the SML breadth MCSUM is to break above the short term declining tops line you see on the chart connecting the December and February highs
2011-03-31 16:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can get this to happen, and with the SML already at all time high ground, the sky really is the limit
2011-03-31 16:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey Lew...
2011-03-31 16:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: idea
2011-03-31 16:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the great amount of scare with the recent lows
2011-03-31 16:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the way the market was able to move to new highs without the benefit of divergence
2011-03-31 16:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could it be
2011-03-31 16:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that...
2011-03-31 16:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just finished a small second wave of an extended third to the upside?
2011-03-31 16:38:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I've been considering it
2011-03-31 16:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what other power move could it be?
2011-03-31 16:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bigger 3rd wave
2011-03-31 16:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a lesser degree second wave to set the table for the center point?
2011-03-31 16:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amusing thought really
2011-03-31 16:39:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but it has to be considered
2011-03-31 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2011-03-31 16:39:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if we just accelerate from here
2011-03-31 16:39:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh yea
2011-03-31 16:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on the back on the jobs data
2011-03-31 16:40:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of giving the market a sling shot
2011-03-31 16:40:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and bringing even the staunchest of bears to the bull side
2011-03-31 16:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just throwing it out there for digestion
2011-03-31 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for us
2011-03-31 16:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who are watching money flow
2011-03-31 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line is at all time highs
2011-03-31 16:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so liquidity is plentiful
2011-03-31 16:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why when we hear reports about Japan expanding the "drop zone" the market just shrugs it off?
2011-03-31 16:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and actually uses this negative sentiment as food?
2011-03-31 16:42:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at the combo charts real quick
2011-03-31 16:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the NASDAQ and NYSE breadth MCSUM have closed their gap resistance areas now
2011-03-31 16:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interestingly enough
2011-03-31 16:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the AMEX is the weakest market here
2011-03-31 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the exception of the CDAD, we're about to move back into bullish configurations which would generate a "strong buy" rating this weekend
2011-03-31 16:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it really is amazing
2011-03-31 16:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2011-03-31 16:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCSUM has now fully snapped back to both the +250 level and its previous horizontal support level
2011-03-31 16:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...it's the bulls to lose here
2011-03-31 16:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they hold all the cards
2011-03-31 16:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with several of the price patterns having yet to break to new highs
2011-03-31 16:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see a near term interception
2011-03-31 16:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time, right now, today, the bears would need several days of selling to see anything more than just a choppy reception
2011-03-31 16:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the sector charts
2011-03-31 16:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY data continues to look choppy
2011-03-31 16:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's uniform in structure between the MCO and it's components
2011-03-31 16:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the best here would be for continued sideways action unless fresh buying or selling comes in
2011-03-31 16:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty uniform structure with the XLP
2011-03-31 16:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we have new highs which would be more than likely defensive buying
2011-03-31 16:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this move is creating both short term and intermediate term divergence
2011-03-31 16:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's going to take a move above the +750 level on the XLP breadth MCSUM to confirm this current move to new highs
2011-03-31 16:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of thing with the XLE
2011-03-31 16:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to point something out that we talked about before
2011-03-31 16:51:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: why is price not considered to be leading here?
2011-03-31 16:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that when the MCSUM gets to the kind of extremes we've seen, it's usually not the end of the price patterns move in this same direction
2011-03-31 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...in a way it is
2011-03-31 16:52:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the raw data looks to be confirming and leading
2011-03-31 16:52:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are you referring to the XLE specifically?
2011-03-31 16:52:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, but have any broken out?
2011-03-31 16:52:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ahead of price?
2011-03-31 16:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a look...one moment
2011-03-31 16:54:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it's confirming - http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf.php?s=XLE&c=breadth_advance_decline_avg_d
2011-03-31 16:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moved to new highs on Wednesday
2011-03-31 16:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the MCO and MCSUM are measuring the TRENDS of the A/D line on two different time values
2011-03-31 16:56:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after an extended move in ANYTHING it would make good sense that whatever we're looking at is not even going to come close to amplitude to the extremes seen at its initiation
2011-03-31 16:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...if this is a extended third wave (for example)
2011-03-31 16:56:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not much expansion here in the xle posts, either
2011-03-31 16:56:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not yet
2011-03-31 16:57:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: read what I'm writing
2011-03-31 16:57:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the largest postings will usually take place at the beginning
2011-03-31 16:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it this way
2011-03-31 16:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're in your car
2011-03-31 16:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you're traveling from Cleveland to Columbus
2011-03-31 16:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you start from a dead stop at the base of the freeway on ramp
2011-03-31 16:58:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your initial acceleration is going to produce the most amount of energy
2011-03-31 16:58:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once you're on the freeway
2011-03-31 16:58:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you're already going 55 mph
2011-03-31 16:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't need as much energy to get the car to go 65
2011-03-31 16:58:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or 70
2011-03-31 16:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or 80
2011-03-31 16:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all you need to do is tap the accelerator and you goooooooo
2011-03-31 16:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what seems to happening here
2011-03-31 16:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can also use the space shuttle analogy
2011-03-31 16:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you need more THRUST when you leave the launch pad
2011-03-31 16:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you don't need a quarter as much for a mid course correction when you're already in space
2011-03-31 17:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small thrust would do the job as a larger one back on the ground
2011-03-31 17:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now the trick here
2011-03-31 17:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if this is the center point situation
2011-03-31 17:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not likely to see as broad of postings on the MCSUM as we like to see at the beginning of the trip (the September lows)
2011-03-31 17:01:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but after all is said and done, the AMPLITUDE - the distance traveled in the MCSUM during such center points - will tend to be quite long in duration
2011-03-31 17:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a different conceptual interpretation here
2011-03-31 17:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see where I'm going with this?
2011-03-31 17:02:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I do
2011-03-31 17:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comments?
2011-03-31 17:03:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: don't care much for this exact spot
2011-03-31 17:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a key juncture
2011-03-31 17:03:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes!
2011-03-31 17:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed
2011-03-31 17:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a key for the bears to hold here
2011-03-31 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or they will lose all control of the price pattern structure and we will go to new highs
2011-03-31 17:03:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I tend to trade cautiously
2011-03-31 17:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it
2011-03-31 17:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears had so much going for them news wise that could actually hurt economic activity, not just on a domestic level, but globally as well
2011-03-31 17:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will we trade with Japan again...and when??
2011-03-31 17:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how high will oil move to with the recent political problems in the Arab belt?
2011-03-31 17:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher oil moves, the more TAXING it is for the consumer
2011-03-31 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still
2011-03-31 17:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when push is coming to shove
2011-03-31 17:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a whole load of different avenues this same excess of cash to move in to
2011-03-31 17:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's choosing equities
2011-03-31 17:06:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, it would seem-oil
2011-03-31 17:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests to me that money seems to think that equities remain "undervalued"
2011-03-31 17:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...that's a given
2011-03-31 17:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher oil moves up, the larger the anticipated profits for those who dig it out of the ground
2011-03-31 17:06:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the chemical sector and drugs
2011-03-31 17:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and other natural resources as people look for alternatives
2011-03-31 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2011-03-31 17:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how important is it really with oil moving to higher highs?
2011-03-31 17:07:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: depends how high
2011-03-31 17:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when one can shop on on line, in the comfort of their home or office, and have it shipped to them?
2011-03-31 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...there is always a point of too much
2011-03-31 17:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but money is indicating that this is not the time
2011-03-31 17:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the XLE breadth MCSUM
2011-03-31 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where did it find support?
2011-03-31 17:08:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: +500
2011-03-31 17:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tells us what?
2011-03-31 17:09:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: still in propulsion mode-but I need to see it break 750
2011-03-31 17:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...that's your guideline...great
2011-03-31 17:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you answered the more important question
2011-03-31 17:10:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well=it isn't even at gap yet
2011-03-31 17:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it found support at the level in which one considered to be "overbought"
2011-03-31 17:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...it's not
2011-03-31 17:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what is price doing?
2011-03-31 17:10:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: front running
2011-03-31 17:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no
2011-03-31 17:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's working off the mid course correction thrust of the current energy
2011-03-31 17:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth is pushing price in this direction with a lot more ease since it's already above the influences of the default - gravity
2011-03-31 17:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't take as much as it would at the zero line to push prices higher
2011-03-31 17:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummm - trying to give you a visual that would help
2011-03-31 17:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I got it
2011-03-31 17:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you ever been to "I Fly"?
2011-03-31 17:13:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no
2011-03-31 17:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I Fly is a way to sky dive without jumping out of a plane
2011-03-31 17:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the air lifts you above the floor
2011-03-31 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all you need to do is touch the "flyer" in a direction and he will move in that direction without any strength to do so
2011-03-31 17:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about this
2011-03-31 17:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're in the deep end of a swimming pool
2011-03-31 17:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you try to lift your 200 lb cousin where you know you can't even budge him pool side
2011-03-31 17:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but under the water...you can...with ease
2011-03-31 17:14:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah
2011-03-31 17:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (because of displacement...but that's another thing
2011-03-31 17:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, in a way, we are talking displacement here
2011-03-31 17:15:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-03-31 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher you are...the easier it is to move an object because there's less weight to move
2011-03-31 17:16:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: so, if these postings start to tighten up, while we are at a high, I shouldn't be concerned?
2011-03-31 17:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you may not get your desired separation of postings...but you not likely to need them either
2011-03-31 17:16:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course you should
2011-03-31 17:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you're not likely to see a higher energy factor after having already used the majority of your fuel
2011-03-31 17:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until have engine cut off
2011-03-31 17:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're going to miss the move
2011-03-31 17:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember
2011-03-31 17:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the engines cut off, you still have the momentum of the move to work off before the object is likely to change direction
2011-03-31 17:18:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-03-31 17:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the object being, in this case, price
2011-03-31 17:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you allow this inconsistency keep you from participating, you're only cheating yourself
2011-03-31 17:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why most people say price is king
2011-03-31 17:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what they don't say is
2011-03-31 17:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price is king so long as there's enough energy to push it in this same direction
2011-03-31 17:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once this energy ceases, price will move in the direction of where this energy is likely to take it
2011-03-31 17:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every throw a baseball into the air?
2011-03-31 17:20:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2011-03-31 17:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your thrust is when you release the ball
2011-03-31 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once it leaves your hand...no more energy
2011-03-31 17:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it keeps going higher
2011-03-31 17:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until...it loses this energy and THEN moves in the opposite direction
2011-03-31 17:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (and hopefully into your glove!)
2011-03-31 17:21:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, I'll have to let you lead, and miss a bit
2011-03-31 17:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's stay with this for a moment
2011-03-31 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's say that you catch the ball
2011-03-31 17:22:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then you climb a tree to throw it up again
2011-03-31 17:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does it take as much energy from that tree to reach the same height as it were on the ground?
2011-03-31 17:22:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2011-03-31 17:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: get it?
2011-03-31 17:22:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-03-31 17:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what we're dealing with
2011-03-31 17:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what if
2011-03-31 17:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you were able to throw that ball from the tree with the same amount of strength?
2011-03-31 17:23:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ball would go that much higher...right?
2011-03-31 17:23:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2011-03-31 17:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since you're that much further away from the ground
2011-03-31 17:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would have an easier time to move that much higher
2011-03-31 17:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same concept
2011-03-31 17:24:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks for the explanations
2011-03-31 17:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I'm attempting to give you something different to chew on
2011-03-31 17:24:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: appreciated
2011-03-31 17:24:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're dealing with physics here
2011-03-31 17:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is the reason why that when we top again here in the XLE
2011-03-31 17:25:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly likely that before we even move back down to the MCSUM zero line
2011-03-31 17:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will again see higher price highs in the price pattern structure
2011-03-31 17:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe during a ledge or a fishhook
2011-03-31 17:26:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hmm
2011-03-31 17:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's a pretty good bet because we still have momentum to work off from being currently "overbought"
2011-03-31 17:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and especially so if we can get back above the +750 level
2011-03-31 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even more so to the +1000 level
2011-03-31 17:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as we're "overbought" on any oscillator
2011-03-31 17:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we ease off of this
2011-03-31 17:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly likely that you're going to see higher price highs to work off the momentum of this "overbought" condition
2011-03-31 17:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we haven't even broken down as yet internally
2011-03-31 17:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same can be said for the NYA
2011-03-31 17:28:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it found support in and around the +350 level
2011-03-31 17:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though true it's not +500
2011-03-31 17:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to have the MCSUM above the zero line for this long period of time takes tremendous strength to do so
2011-03-31 17:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...let's move on
2011-03-31 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO has now broken above its February highs
2011-03-31 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this alone would suggest a retest of these same February price highs
2011-03-31 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we look at the XLF breadth MCSUM
2011-03-31 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that, like the SML, we have found zero line support and are now starting to move higher again
2011-03-31 17:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have our third bottom above a bottom in the pattern
2011-03-31 17:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember back to last month
2011-03-31 17:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did talk about the possibility of a rest for the chart pattern before it was going to able to break above the important 17 level
2011-03-31 17:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the back drop of the Durbin amendment right now
2011-03-31 17:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would provide enough negative sentiment for this group of issues to make their move to higher highs
2011-03-31 17:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (just saying)
2011-03-31 17:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice power move in the XLV breadth MCO and its components
2011-03-31 17:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM remains very positive here
2011-03-31 17:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is one sector to look to
2011-03-31 17:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the price pattern was able to gap above its previous highs yesterday
2011-03-31 17:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing really nice strength of pattern
2011-03-31 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you want to see what an irregular flat might look like
2011-03-31 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check out the February to March period of the XLV price pattern - textbook
2011-03-31 17:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that darn "oversold" spike in the MCO...but then again...there was a pretty good excuse for it
2011-03-31 17:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just like the XLE
2011-03-31 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI data is showing the same kind of potential here with the XLI breadth MCSUM finding support just above the +500 level before making its recent turn
2011-03-31 17:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is another sector to look at
2011-03-31 17:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you have the XLB index
2011-03-31 17:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and thinking about it for a moment
2011-03-31 17:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with all the destruction in Japan, I guess they're going to eventually need to rebuild, won't they?
2011-03-31 17:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less what may go on in the Middle East
2011-03-31 17:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once cooler heads prevail
2011-03-31 17:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK data continues to struggle here
2011-03-31 17:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably why the NDX is having its short term problems
2011-03-31 17:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU continues to look like sideways is the best way for a little more time
2011-03-31 17:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...there are good points, and weak points, but overall things look much better now for the bulls than they did a week ago
2011-03-31 17:40:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the volume McClellan's and see if there's any improvement there
2011-03-31 17:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCSUM continues to show its problems
2011-03-31 17:41:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but were now starting to get some good gap expansion on the NYSE volume MCSUM
2011-03-31 17:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still out of sync on the NASDAQ volume MCO and its components
2011-03-31 17:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume data is having a lot of problems, but it remains above its zero lines
2011-03-31 17:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NDX volume MCSUM finding that the closer it gets to zero, the more it wants to repel from it
2011-03-31 17:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't like that
2011-03-31 17:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SPX volume MCSUM just went above its zero line today
2011-03-31 17:44:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could a precursor to more strength by the bulls near term
2011-03-31 17:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...we are still congested here on the volume MCSUM's
2011-03-31 17:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not on the MID and especially the SML
2011-03-31 17:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are the leaders here folks
2011-03-31 17:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the large caps are, for whatever reason, are lagging here
2011-03-31 17:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what money there is for investment is going into the small and mid caps
2011-03-31 17:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCSUM has fulfilled its obligation of at least snapping back to the +250 level after its zero line bounce
2011-03-31 17:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sector wise
2011-03-31 17:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB looks the strongest...with a nice divergent bottom in place
2011-03-31 17:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I really like the XLB here
2011-03-31 17:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...the market needs a red hot poker here to get everything into gear
2011-03-31 17:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but doing ones homework this weekend should have a bullish bias to it
2011-03-31 17:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are still "overbought"
2011-03-31 17:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they can remain so until we get the VTO's there too
2011-03-31 17:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which now looks to be the objective given that we have moved above the zero line
2011-03-31 17:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.98
2011-03-31 17:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.04
2011-03-31 17:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: end of the quarter stuff?
2011-03-31 17:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: biggest quarter in 12 years for the Dow...up 5%
2011-03-31 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-03-31 17:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.56
2011-03-31 17:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95
2011-03-31 17:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.69
2011-03-31 17:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .98
2011-03-31 17:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first feel here after this
2011-03-31 17:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably going to be another choppy couple of days coming up
2011-03-31 17:52:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the Open 10's were "oversold" here, it would be a different situation
2011-03-31 17:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...OEX P/C ratio remains very bullish here
2011-03-31 17:53:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the jobs number didn't get fronted today-as it has been doing
2011-03-31 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2011-03-31 17:53:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it might of been yesterday given the EOM
2011-03-31 17:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's put it in a way that would make the most sense
2011-03-31 17:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any surprises will be to the upside from here
2011-03-31 17:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point changes suggest that we can see a robust move here
2011-03-31 17:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10's suggest that it might wait until Monday
2011-03-31 17:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: get some disappointed selling tomorrow
2011-03-31 17:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: get the specialists to accumulate that stock
2011-03-31 17:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then take it higher
2011-03-31 17:55:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that's what I've been thinking
2011-03-31 17:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...I'm 50% long and looking for more information
2011-03-31 17:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strongest sectors are energy and materials
2011-03-31 17:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: health care as well
2011-03-31 17:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: potentials are with the financials and the staples
2011-03-31 17:56:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2011-03-31 17:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pay special attention to the cumulative charts this weekend
2011-03-31 17:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and see whether we get an up grade from last week of +55
2011-03-31 17:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +65 is a buy
2011-03-31 17:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +85 is a strong buy
2011-03-31 17:57:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my guess here, unless we get a big move tomorrow, we're going to get a buy signal
2011-03-31 17:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-03-31 17:58:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2011-03-31 17:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just think baseball
2011-03-31 17:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and there's a difference in the height factor if you throw the ball up over-handed or underhanded
2011-03-31 17:59:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: time to play some catch (up?) this weekend
2011-03-31 17:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that
2011-03-31 17:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-03-31 17:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-03-31 17:59:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again on Tuesday
2011-03-31 17:59:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2018 Technical Watch