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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,455
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-03-29 16:00:45 fib1618: good day
2016-03-29 16:00:48 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-03-29 16:01:00 thespookyone: Great, and you?
2016-03-29 16:01:12 fib1618: fine...thanks for asking!
2016-03-29 16:01:35 thespookyone: I see your girl gave the market a nice pop, LOL
2016-03-29 16:01:56 fib1618: not MY girl!
2016-03-29 16:02:17 fib1618: she's just giving in to what the market wants her to do
2016-03-29 16:02:21 fib1618: [smile]
2016-03-29 16:02:36 thespookyone: truth
2016-03-29 16:03:46 fib1618: looking right now at what they showed at fashion week for fall
2016-03-29 16:04:22 fib1618: things are all over the place
2016-03-29 16:04:30 fib1618: lots of asymmetrical designs
2016-03-29 16:04:36 fib1618: bright colors
2016-03-29 16:04:42 fib1618: longer skirts
2016-03-29 16:04:56 fib1618: and where the skirts are not long...about 4" above the knee
2016-03-29 16:05:11 fib1618: all in all...defensively bullish
2016-03-29 16:05:32 fib1618: for those who don't know
2016-03-29 16:05:40 thespookyone: I'm seeing option blocks bought farther out than usual, into Jan.
2016-03-29 16:05:52 fib1618: "asymmetrical" designs are cut at an angle from bottom to top
2016-03-29 16:06:16 fib1618: or...if you're bearish...from top to bottom [biggrin]
2016-03-29 16:06:34 fib1618: need to do one more thing and we'll get going
2016-03-29 16:07:45 thespookyone: cool
2016-03-29 16:08:36 fib1618: OK...let's get going
2016-03-29 16:09:15 fib1618: after moving back below the zero line last week
2016-03-29 16:09:29 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has now moved back above this same line
2016-03-29 16:09:41 fib1618: and currently has a reading of +24
2016-03-29 16:10:05 fib1618: so we have now snapped back to what is natural resistance
2016-03-29 16:10:26 fib1618: putting ruler to monitor
2016-03-29 16:10:57 fib1618: and we have also moved back up to the current declining tops line that began at the beginning of this month
2016-03-29 16:11:12 fib1618: so this is a good area to see some sort of back and fill back to the zero line
2016-03-29 16:11:41 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO MCO components
2016-03-29 16:11:49 fib1618: and they are now back to a crossover buy signal
2016-03-29 16:12:11 fib1618: and with this
2016-03-29 16:12:15 thespookyone: this market can't seem to correct, more than intra day...
2016-03-29 16:12:26 fib1618: we have the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM now moving higher again
2016-03-29 16:12:32 fib1618: not so far
2016-03-29 16:12:35 fib1618: then again
2016-03-29 16:12:41 fib1618: the thrust engines just shut down last week
2016-03-29 16:12:45 fib1618: and you know how that goes
2016-03-29 16:12:50 thespookyone: yep
2016-03-29 16:12:52 fib1618: you get thrown back in your seat
2016-03-29 16:13:02 fib1618: and then you slam forward just as fast as the momentum of the thrust takes over
2016-03-29 16:13:37 fib1618: the market, therefore, isn't likely to see much in the way of price decay until the components move back below their zero line
2016-03-29 16:13:40 fib1618: which also means
2016-03-29 16:13:49 fib1618: the 19 day and 39 day EMA's of this A/D line turns lower
2016-03-29 16:14:30 fib1618: this is the reason why last week's weakness wasn't so important as it was instructive on where we are in the current advancing price sequence
2016-03-29 16:14:35 fib1618: also remember
2016-03-29 16:14:35 thespookyone: spx is a whisper from another high
2016-03-29 16:14:59 fib1618: the speculators were buying puts left and right after the bombings
2016-03-29 16:15:12 fib1618: so that set a floor in and of itself
2016-03-29 16:15:15 thespookyone: yes, lots of top pickers-still
2016-03-29 16:15:26 fib1618: we also had a 2.00 plus reading in they NYSE TRIN
2016-03-29 16:15:31 fib1618: and that helps as well
2016-03-29 16:15:42 thespookyone: IWM shorts got toasted
2016-03-29 16:16:02 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-03-29 16:16:12 fib1618: and here too we found the usual zero line support
2016-03-29 16:16:26 fib1618: with a reading here today of +23
2016-03-29 16:16:52 fib1618: we're back to a crossover buy signal in the MCO components as well
2016-03-29 16:16:53 fib1618: AND
2016-03-29 16:17:09 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM has moved above the +1000 level
2016-03-29 16:17:50 fib1618: so any kind of near term upside follow through and that would be an indication that we're not quite done as yet both on a propulsion and momentum level
2016-03-29 16:18:08 thespookyone: was wondering that, thx
2016-03-29 16:18:19 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor again
2016-03-29 16:18:31 fib1618: and the declining tops line here crosses at about the +35 level
2016-03-29 16:19:02 fib1618: so we have a bit more play here for the buyers before a technical back and fill could take place
2016-03-29 16:19:12 fib1618: we have ADP in the morning
2016-03-29 16:19:45 fib1618: and that should at least set the silverware on the table
2016-03-29 16:19:52 fib1618: with the plates to fully set the table coming along on Thursday
2016-03-29 16:20:26 fib1618: which having this going on with April Fool's Day might have a deeper meaning for market participants
2016-03-29 16:21:07 fib1618: strong move in the secondaries today with the NASDAQ Composite Index up 1.67%
2016-03-29 16:21:28 fib1618: and also reaching our upside price target of 4850
2016-03-29 16:21:52 fib1618: zero line bounce as well for the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-03-29 16:22:10 fib1618: and like the NYSE CO MCO
2016-03-29 16:22:18 fib1618: we closed right at the declining tops line today
2016-03-29 16:22:31 fib1618: the sellers really need to be careful here
2016-03-29 16:23:42 fib1618: for it's no mere coincidence when the MCO closes right at an important trendline juncture just before we get an important economic announcement that can make or break the degree in which money moves either in or out
2016-03-29 16:24:06 fib1618: with a strong move above these mentioned declining tops lines
2016-03-29 16:24:29 fib1618: likely to drive prices beyond the November/December price highs
2016-03-29 16:25:07 fib1618: NDX breadth MCO also found zero line support
2016-03-29 16:25:18 fib1618: as the NDX MCO components remain very strong
2016-03-29 16:26:06 fib1618: with the NDX breadth MCO declining tops line coming in here at around the +35 level
2016-03-29 16:26:11 fib1618: lots of consistency right now
2016-03-29 16:26:29 fib1618: and that only happens when prices are trending
2016-03-29 16:27:15 fib1618: any good follow through on Wednesday for the NDX breadth MCSUM and we'll look for our next potential for resistance at the +750 level
2016-03-29 16:27:52 fib1618: the SPX MCO components also remain very strong here
2016-03-29 16:28:36 fib1618: while the SPX breadth MCSUM found support 19 points above the +1000 level
2016-03-29 16:28:56 fib1618: any move above last weeks exhaustion point would be bullish for the next week or so
2016-03-29 16:29:35 fib1618: I wonder if "my girlfriend" got an advance copy of what March's jobs numbers are going to look like?
2016-03-29 16:30:04 fib1618: the timing here is suspect
2016-03-29 16:30:21 fib1618: was she talking to Congress?
2016-03-29 16:30:25 fib1618: let me check
2016-03-29 16:30:59 thespookyone: I bet she "might" know about the jobs
2016-03-29 16:32:03 fib1618: oh...it was at a conference in Chicago
2016-03-29 16:32:18 fib1618: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140331a.htm
2016-03-29 16:32:56 fib1618: I'll read the text later
2016-03-29 16:33:00 fib1618: anyway
2016-03-29 16:33:01 fib1618: no matter
2016-03-29 16:33:47 fib1618: the technicals told us that things would be choppy and volatile with and surprises likely to be bullish ones
2016-03-29 16:33:58 fib1618: and so it goes
2016-03-29 16:36:39 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCSUM is still finding natural resistance at the +750 level
2016-03-29 16:37:33 fib1618: as the OEX breadth MCO has moved back above its zero line with a reading of +13 today
2016-03-29 16:38:04 fib1618: zero line bounce for the Dow breadth MCO was also successful
2016-03-29 16:38:10 fib1618: and now we're at the +24 level
2016-03-29 16:38:29 fib1618: wow...MID up 1.77% today
2016-03-29 16:39:00 fib1618: making our next target of 1460 now doable
2016-03-29 16:39:15 fib1618: here too
2016-03-29 16:39:32 fib1618: the MID breadth MCSUM found good support at just above the +1000 level
2016-03-29 16:39:46 fib1618: so that makes 3 successful MCSUM challenges met
2016-03-29 16:40:21 fib1618: and, once again, the MID breadth MCO closed today right at its declining tops line from the early March highs
2016-03-29 16:40:47 fib1618: wow...the SML was up 2.70% today!
2016-03-29 16:41:27 fib1618: and we closed above the +25 level on the SML breadth MCO (+28)
2016-03-29 16:41:33 fib1618: AND
2016-03-29 16:41:44 fib1618: we closed above the declining tops line on the SML breadth MCO
2016-03-29 16:41:52 thespookyone: IWM calls that were $11 this morning, closed around $140
2016-03-29 16:41:57 fib1618: what?
2016-03-29 16:42:05 thespookyone: yep
2016-03-29 16:42:11 fib1618: 11 to 140?
2016-03-29 16:42:15 thespookyone: yes
2016-03-29 16:42:29 fib1618: OK...pass along that drug you're taking to me lol
2016-03-29 16:42:38 thespookyone: honest
2016-03-29 16:42:42 fib1618: what strike price?
2016-03-29 16:42:54 fib1618: 11 to 140?
2016-03-29 16:43:31 fib1618: well...that's got to be one the great all time one day moves
2016-03-29 16:43:43 thespookyone: yes
2016-03-29 16:44:16 fib1618: amazing
2016-03-29 16:44:18 fib1618: anyway
2016-03-29 16:44:32 fib1618: the SML has been a good leading indicator for quite awhile now
2016-03-29 16:44:40 fib1618: and if this time is the rule and not the exception
2016-03-29 16:44:44 thespookyone: $TNA, I think they were 56.50, and "just a tad"
2016-03-29 16:44:55 fib1618: then we should see the market start to impulse higher again
2016-03-29 16:45:14 fib1618: my my
2016-03-29 16:45:46 fib1618: we'll watch to see what happens when the SML breadth MCSUM gets to +750
2016-03-29 16:45:49 fib1618: but at this point
2016-03-29 16:45:55 thespookyone: they were $11 around 10:30 this morning
2016-03-29 16:46:03 fib1618: it looks like we may be getting our second wind
2016-03-29 16:46:35 fib1618: and that second wind can drive us to the all time highs in many of the major indices
2016-03-29 16:46:44 fib1618: need another day to confirm though
2016-03-29 16:46:58 fib1618: but any positive plurality of better than 3:1
2016-03-29 16:46:59 thespookyone: I'd like a small initial drop in the morning, to position a bit
2016-03-29 16:47:18 fib1618: what we would like...and what we get...are always two different things
2016-03-29 16:47:25 fib1618: at this point
2016-03-29 16:47:27 thespookyone: you bet, LOL
2016-03-29 16:47:29 fib1618: on the daily
2016-03-29 16:47:43 fib1618: to break above the trendline resistance areas
2016-03-29 16:47:51 fib1618: it's usually done with a lot of fanfare
2016-03-29 16:48:05 fib1618: the SML is our whisper
2016-03-29 16:48:42 fib1618: higher high close in the Wilshire 5000 today
2016-03-29 16:48:46 fib1618: so that's a good thing
2016-03-29 16:48:58 thespookyone: it feels like we were coiling, to get the energy to blow through the "250's "
2016-03-29 16:49:14 fib1618: with the TM breadth MCO closing today just shy of its declining tops line
2016-03-29 16:49:28 fib1618: well...we're also holding above these same 250's multiple areas as well
2016-03-29 16:49:43 thespookyone: yes
2016-03-29 16:49:54 fib1618: as classic of a "pause to refresh" as we're likely to see in real time
2016-03-29 16:50:10 fib1618: it's really up to the volume end...so let's take a look at that
2016-03-29 16:50:40 fib1618: but before we do, it should be noted...
2016-03-29 16:50:46 fib1618: new all time high close in the XLP today
2016-03-29 16:50:53 fib1618: new reaction high close in the XLY
2016-03-29 16:51:23 fib1618: the XLI is showing a resumption thrust to the upside
2016-03-29 16:51:36 fib1618: big upside price move in the XLK
2016-03-29 16:51:43 fib1618: so watch the Tech sector tomorrow
2016-03-29 16:51:58 fib1618: and new all time high close in the XLU
2016-03-29 16:52:03 fib1618: this is not finished
2016-03-29 16:52:12 fib1618: could be a buy point
2016-03-29 16:52:24 fib1618: but to do this with our being as "overbought" as we are is a strong sign of strength
2016-03-29 16:52:32 fib1618: with the defensive issues are showing the way
2016-03-29 16:52:33 thespookyone: could be nice into options ex
2016-03-29 16:52:38 fib1618: and now Tech is waking up
2016-03-29 16:52:54 fib1618: I wouldn't be selling covered calls right now though
2016-03-29 16:53:06 thespookyone: nope
2016-03-29 16:53:11 fib1618: I really like how we held above the +1000 level on the MCSUM's
2016-03-29 16:53:29 fib1618: so hard to do when we're as extended as we currently are
2016-03-29 16:53:34 thespookyone: I've seen some huge opening put sells
2016-03-29 16:53:44 fib1618: might had been what the doctor ordered today from Yellen
2016-03-29 16:54:07 fib1618: watch Europe in the morning
2016-03-29 16:54:15 fib1618: let's move to the volume McClellan's
2016-03-29 16:55:09 fib1618: well...the good news is that the +750 level is holding so far in the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCSUM's
2016-03-29 16:55:29 fib1618: the bad news is that we're not getting a lot of strength in the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's to help lift us away from this same MCSUM level
2016-03-29 16:55:42 fib1618: and without good volume here
2016-03-29 16:55:59 fib1618: we're not likely to break above the breadth MCO declining tops lines we've been talking about tonight
2016-03-29 16:56:46 fib1618: looking a bit better in the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's and, by extension, their MCSUM's
2016-03-29 16:57:01 fib1618: the secondaries are very strong here
2016-03-29 16:57:13 thespookyone: plurality will mean a lot tomorrow
2016-03-29 16:57:23 fib1618: which would make sense with the cost of money likely to favor growth aerea
2016-03-29 16:57:29 fib1618: it will be everything
2016-03-29 16:57:38 fib1618: in order to break above any kind of resistance
2016-03-29 16:57:49 fib1618: you need an "above average" push to do so
2016-03-29 16:58:14 fib1618: same thing is needed to break below support levels as well
2016-03-29 16:58:20 fib1618: money is everything
2016-03-29 16:58:25 fib1618: in fact
2016-03-29 16:58:30 fib1618: it's the ONLY thing that matters
2016-03-29 16:58:43 fib1618: too much of it...and prices react accordingly
2016-03-29 16:58:48 thespookyone: agreed [smile]
2016-03-29 16:58:49 fib1618: not enough...and the same can be said
2016-03-29 16:59:23 fib1618: the SPX volume MCSUM is also supporting a classic pause to refresh structure
2016-03-29 16:59:59 fib1618: while the OEX volume MCSUM continues to play "keep away" from the +500 level
2016-03-29 17:00:16 fib1618: a big push up and through there would really get things moving for the Dow and SPX
2016-03-29 17:00:22 fib1618: note also
2016-03-29 17:00:31 fib1618: the interplay on the price charts with their EMA's
2016-03-29 17:00:42 fib1618: especially that of the 200 day EMA
2016-03-29 17:00:57 fib1618: where we broke above this level in many charts over the last couple of weeks
2016-03-29 17:01:12 fib1618: and last week provided the usual technical snapback
2016-03-29 17:01:17 fib1618: and now we bounced today
2016-03-29 17:01:33 fib1618: this is a classic bullish structure sequence of break, test and continue
2016-03-29 17:01:47 fib1618: and the more charts that move back above their 200 day EMA
2016-03-29 17:01:57 fib1618: the better for the bulls
2016-03-29 17:02:28 fib1618: I think the wording of taking negative rates off the table was the key
2016-03-29 17:02:55 fib1618: the Dow volume MCSUM is just below its +750 level
2016-03-29 17:03:07 fib1618: again we have so many 250 MCSUM multiples in play here
2016-03-29 17:03:21 fib1618: some snapping back down for a test
2016-03-29 17:03:35 fib1618: others just south of breaking above these same areas
2016-03-29 17:04:02 thespookyone: potential powder keg...
2016-03-29 17:04:03 fib1618: disappointing weakness in the MID volume MCO
2016-03-29 17:04:15 fib1618: as it only moved up to a +7
2016-03-29 17:04:23 fib1618: could be a zero line bounce
2016-03-29 17:04:31 fib1618: or it could be a zero line snapback
2016-03-29 17:04:34 fib1618: hard to tell
2016-03-29 17:04:40 thespookyone: true
2016-03-29 17:04:44 fib1618: and why what happens volume wise, near term, is the key right now
2016-03-29 17:05:12 fib1618: the SML volume MCO showed a bit better performance today than the MID
2016-03-29 17:05:29 fib1618: but not enough to help in confirming an upside breakout in progress
2016-03-29 17:05:40 fib1618: the buyers need follow through quickly and with a lot of vigor
2016-03-29 17:05:44 thespookyone: could we get the zero line snapback, followed by the powder keg, please? LOL
2016-03-29 17:05:52 fib1618: ideally
2016-03-29 17:06:04 fib1618: with SML breadth MCO already above its resistance
2016-03-29 17:06:39 fib1618: any zero line snapback in the SML volume would suggest further back and fill is needed before we're able to re-initiate the trend
2016-03-29 17:06:46 fib1618: we're talking day to day here
2016-03-29 17:06:50 fib1618: not weekly
2016-03-29 17:06:53 fib1618: weekly is still higher
2016-03-29 17:07:03 thespookyone: thx, I trade both
2016-03-29 17:07:18 fib1618: what we're trying to ascertain now is whether we're working with momentum after the thrust engines shut down last week
2016-03-29 17:07:34 fib1618: or are they being re-ignited for a further course correction?
2016-03-29 17:07:58 fib1618: a break above the trendlines would mean the later
2016-03-29 17:08:07 fib1618: pull back, the former
2016-03-29 17:08:38 fib1618: and a slightly higher high in the TM volume MCO compared to the TM breadth MCO
2016-03-29 17:08:54 fib1618: so that's a good omen
2016-03-29 17:09:28 fib1618: I believe that we'll know how things are likely to go after 3 am Eastern time as Europe opens
2016-03-29 17:10:03 fib1618: OK...STVO's are all neutral
2016-03-29 17:10:10 fib1618: so one side is about to take control
2016-03-29 17:10:29 fib1618: On balance volume in the CVI is siding bullish
2016-03-29 17:10:44 fib1618: VTO's continue to be near "overbought" but not frothy
2016-03-29 17:11:07 fib1618: except for the Dow which is foaming at the mouth
2016-03-29 17:11:10 fib1618: [smile]
2016-03-29 17:11:22 fib1618: wow
2016-03-29 17:11:27 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.47
2016-03-29 17:11:31 fib1618: selling into strength
2016-03-29 17:11:44 fib1618: Open 10 now at 1.06
2016-03-29 17:11:58 fib1618: and this is a bullish set up
2016-03-29 17:12:11 fib1618: could go with a bit more selling though
2016-03-29 17:12:24 fib1618: but hopefully the NASDAQ is looking better
2016-03-29 17:12:35 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .80
2016-03-29 17:12:42 fib1618: so good buying there
2016-03-29 17:12:55 fib1618: Open 10 leveling off at .86
2016-03-29 17:13:04 fib1618: so we're correcting nicely
2016-03-29 17:13:12 fib1618: better said
2016-03-29 17:13:20 fib1618: we're not at all overheating there
2016-03-29 17:13:30 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.00
2016-03-29 17:13:45 fib1618: Open 10 at .96
2016-03-29 17:13:57 fib1618: so...
2016-03-29 17:14:22 fib1618: the sellers will continue to have a tough time in pushing prices lower for any length of time
2016-03-29 17:14:51 fib1618: as there is just too much of a buy side imbalance to absorb any or all surprises
2016-03-29 17:15:04 fib1618: whether they be economical or geopolitical
2016-03-29 17:15:06 fib1618: also remember
2016-03-29 17:15:20 fib1618: there were two other high profile bombings over the weekend
2016-03-29 17:15:30 fib1618: and still the market continues to maintain order
2016-03-29 17:15:47 fib1618: this is strong the underlying strength is...and shown by the various MCSUM's
2016-03-29 17:16:08 fib1618: and why they are to be respected for what they provide us as traders on how to allocate trading decisions
2016-03-29 17:16:22 fib1618: let me check the weekend sentiment numbers
2016-03-29 17:17:12 fib1618: did you see Mark's numbers?
2016-03-29 17:17:25 fib1618: 22% bulls
2016-03-29 17:17:33 fib1618: 61% bears
2016-03-29 17:17:58 fib1618: too much news to digest it would seem
2016-03-29 17:18:02 thespookyone: yep, sure did
2016-03-29 17:18:51 fib1618: mutual fund cash is at 3.4%
2016-03-29 17:18:57 fib1618: lowest since the early 90's
2016-03-29 17:19:13 fib1618: money chasing yield
2016-03-29 17:19:25 fib1618: seems the dividend stocks have a way to go here
2016-03-29 17:19:40 thespookyone: yep
2016-03-29 17:19:55 fib1618: ready for this?
2016-03-29 17:20:04 fib1618: 30 Treasuries are at 163
2016-03-29 17:20:10 fib1618: 63 points above par
2016-03-29 17:21:04 thespookyone: wow
2016-03-29 17:21:05 fib1618: needless to say they're at all time highs
2016-03-29 17:21:34 fib1618: 30 year yield is at 2.6%
2016-03-29 17:21:48 fib1618: all time lows there is 2.25%
2016-03-29 17:22:17 fib1618: it's unbelievable what we're witnessing here
2016-03-29 17:22:50 fib1618: and as long as the NYSE Bond CEF advance/decline line keeps chugging higher
2016-03-29 17:23:10 fib1618: the cost of money will continue to be highly accomodative
2016-03-29 17:23:21 fib1618: good for growth
2016-03-29 17:23:30 fib1618: good for high dividend areas
2016-03-29 17:23:43 fib1618: bad in trying to support our debt
2016-03-29 17:23:53 fib1618: and that could be the 1000 pound gorilla in the room
2016-03-29 17:24:22 fib1618: 1 year bills are at .10%
2016-03-29 17:25:01 fib1618: watch the 200 day EMA on the 2 year note yield
2016-03-29 17:25:13 fib1618: we're right on it at .78%
2016-03-29 17:25:15 fib1618: a break there
2016-03-29 17:25:20 fib1618: and...I have no idea
2016-03-29 17:25:57 fib1618: how can anyone forecast the future on a fundamental basis right now?
2016-03-29 17:26:16 fib1618: and even if they're wrong
2016-03-29 17:26:25 fib1618: they still get paid millions of dollars a year [frown]
2016-03-29 17:26:41 fib1618: anything else?
2016-03-29 17:27:09 thespookyone: no
2016-03-29 17:27:43 fib1618: it's really something what we're seeing here
2016-03-29 17:27:55 thespookyone: it sure is!
2016-03-29 17:27:59 fib1618: and unless you're using money flow analysis
2016-03-29 17:28:05 fib1618: you're just guessing
2016-03-29 17:28:15 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-03-29 17:28:18 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-03-29 17:28:23 thespookyone: thx
2016-03-29 17:28:29 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2016-03-29 17:28:37 fib1618: and we'll see if we have a breakout or not on Thursday
2016-03-29 17:28:38 fib1618: good night


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