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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-03-29 16:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-03-29 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-03-29 16:00:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, you?
2012-03-29 16:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good to go
2012-03-29 16:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-03-29 16:03:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: your biz still brisk?
2012-03-29 16:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2012-03-29 16:03:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: excellent!
2012-03-29 16:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember
2012-03-29 16:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market won't feel it until June
2012-03-29 16:04:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah!
2012-03-29 16:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're generally 3 months ahead of the stock market
2012-03-29 16:04:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool
2012-03-29 16:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you see what happened to Red Hat today?
2012-03-29 16:04:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no
2012-03-29 16:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-03-29 16:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check out the longer term chart
2012-03-29 16:05:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: symbol? I forgot
2012-03-29 16:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now on the NYSE - RHT
2012-03-29 16:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a company in which everyone soured on
2012-03-29 16:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is now at 12 year highs
2012-03-29 16:06:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: WOW, nice chart
2012-03-29 16:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a bad day...up 19%
2012-03-29 16:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2012-03-29 16:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued to go lower today
2012-03-29 16:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains above last weeks lows
2012-03-29 16:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2012-03-29 16:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have a slight problem there
2012-03-29 16:08:57 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: which components?
2012-03-29 16:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the 10% component did NOT find bounce support off its zero line today
2012-03-29 16:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE CO
2012-03-29 16:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just got started
2012-03-29 16:09:28 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: ok thx
2012-03-29 16:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this break of the 10% below the zero line
2012-03-29 16:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was the main cause of the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM moving to lower lows today
2012-03-29 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this now calls into question whether the bulls want anything to do with the common stocks at this time
2012-03-29 16:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2012-03-29 16:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a more defensive attitude is now advised
2012-03-29 16:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least on the commons
2012-03-29 16:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the composite looks
2012-03-29 16:11:01 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: components are slope of 19 and 39 ema yes?
2012-03-29 16:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE composite breadth MCO also moved lower today
2012-03-29 16:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components are the EMA's - yes
2012-03-29 16:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the combination of which provides your speed quotient
2012-03-29 16:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has now pushed the NYSE breadth MCSUM into lower lows and away from the +750 level
2012-03-29 16:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2012-03-29 16:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation for now is for this MCSUM to challenge the +500 level over the next few days
2012-03-29 16:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also means that the market will now have extend the time it will take to finish this digestion period
2012-03-29 16:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term, however, the 10% Trend here is at its zero line
2012-03-29 16:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce off this line is expected as soon as Friday
2012-03-29 16:14:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also means that we are still in a corrective marketplace given the position of both the MCO and its components on either side of their zero line
2012-03-29 16:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears
2012-03-29 16:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2012-03-29 16:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they now have the ball and are, for the first time in a while, moving down field and picking up yardage as they go
2012-03-29 16:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but keep in mind
2012-03-29 16:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we are still in a trading range at this point and it will still be hard going to gnerate any downside momentum until last weeks lows on the MCO are taken out
2012-03-29 16:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should move back to the top of the range after testing the lower end of the range today
2012-03-29 16:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2012-03-29 16:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to see good chop here short term
2012-03-29 16:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is great for day traders
2012-03-29 16:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like today
2012-03-29 16:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the NASDAQ breadth MCO and MCSUM are now testing their momentum support levels
2012-03-29 16:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless the buyers come in tomorrow
2012-03-29 16:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that both will be broken simultaneously
2012-03-29 16:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that this might occur
2012-03-29 16:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a bullish sign of strength for the longs
2012-03-29 16:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we mentioned yesterday
2012-03-29 16:18:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lack of post expansion to the upside in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM of the last several weeks suggests that there's not likely to be any white horse coming to save the bulls at this juncture
2012-03-29 16:18:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we will then see this MCSUM move quickly to the zero line
2012-03-29 16:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor
2012-03-29 16:19:49 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: what does "posting" refer to?
2012-03-29 16:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like the rising bottoms line on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM crosses at about the -50 level
2012-03-29 16:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would be the likely target of any break we might see in the next day or so
2012-03-29 16:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls could save themselves, but their time to do so without sweating it has now run out
2012-03-29 16:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the individual "postings" of the MCSUM...each dot on the chart
2012-03-29 16:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2012-03-29 16:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a full defensive position on any open NASDAQ stocks should now be taken
2012-03-29 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would mean
2012-03-29 16:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both strategic stops
2012-03-29 16:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just plain old banking profits seem to be the wise choice at this time
2012-03-29 16:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-03-29 16:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX data
2012-03-29 16:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have a small point change on the NDX breadth MCO
2012-03-29 16:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now see the NDX breadth MCSUM starting to roll over to the downside
2012-03-29 16:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we continue to move lower and break the lows seen at the beginning of March
2012-03-29 16:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then trigger bear divergence, although slight, in the NDX on an intermediate term basis
2012-03-29 16:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here
2012-03-29 16:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they remain quite positive
2012-03-29 16:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next technical expectation, at least for the next day or so, would be for a snapback to or towards the zero line to take place on the MCO
2012-03-29 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after that
2012-03-29 16:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have a better feel on whether this divergence is likely to trigger or not
2012-03-29 16:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term
2012-03-29 16:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market remains highly positive
2012-03-29 16:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it may be time to see some sort of back and filling after an almost 20% rise in prices
2012-03-29 16:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is now challenging last weeks lows
2012-03-29 16:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they are broken
2012-03-29 16:26:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given that we have met the minimal price target given by the MCO and MCSUM in January of 1440 (+ or - 2%)
2012-03-29 16:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be time to take a more extended break in the action
2012-03-29 16:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and get the internals back to a more balanced situation between the buyers and sellers
2012-03-29 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2012-03-29 16:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls had everything going for them here
2012-03-29 16:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there is evidently something out there that isn't "known" as yet that is making the market hesitant here
2012-03-29 16:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls, of course, can save face
2012-03-29 16:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they really have to show a lot of muscle now to even stabilize things near term
2012-03-29 16:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see what the numbers are for tomorrow
2012-03-29 16:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: No Change in the MCO = -110
2012-03-29 16:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew...
2012-03-29 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Zero line snapback = +2103
2012-03-29 16:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a lot of bull
2012-03-29 16:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would mean we would have to see at least 5:1 to the good tomorrow
2012-03-29 16:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCSUM's now sliding lower and breaking last week's support levels
2012-03-29 16:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't seem doable
2012-03-29 16:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main focus now is with breadth
2012-03-29 16:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we might see maybe one more new price highs created in the SPX and DJIA before we actually see a top here
2012-03-29 16:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it a final shaking of the unwilling to go long
2012-03-29 16:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would include those who have been rather...shall we say...boisterous in their thinking of a top here
2012-03-29 16:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more spanking would probably change their minds for good
2012-03-29 16:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we can pull the plug
2012-03-29 16:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX data again on first sight
2012-03-29 16:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I again had my instinct suggest 1350
2012-03-29 16:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I don't usually fade myself 
2012-03-29 16:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're probably close to some sort of tradable top here
2012-03-29 16:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it's up the bulls
2012-03-29 16:33:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: was just playing with it myself-was in that area, as well
2012-03-29 16:33:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they are now hanging by the tip of their hooves
2012-03-29 16:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1350?
2012-03-29 16:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think what's bothering me here
2012-03-29 16:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the angel of descent that the top beneath the top on the SPX breadth MCSUM is showing
2012-03-29 16:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it seems to be leaning lower now
2012-03-29 16:34:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, or high fourties
2012-03-29 16:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trendline on the SPX comes in about the 1380 area or so
2012-03-29 16:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that would seem the be the first magnet on any further breakdown in the internals here
2012-03-29 16:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do have follow through to the downside in the next couple of days
2012-03-29 16:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the early March lows in the MCO's would be our first testing area of exactly how long this reversal might last
2012-03-29 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...not liking the look the SPX data here
2012-03-29 16:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a full defensive position should now be taken
2012-03-29 16:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2012-03-29 16:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we also moved to neutral on the BETS this past week
2012-03-29 16:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's been doing pretty good in calling market turns
2012-03-29 16:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whoops
2012-03-29 16:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows in the OEX breadth MCO
2012-03-29 16:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that pretty much does it for the large caps
2012-03-29 16:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here though is that
2012-03-29 16:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the New York Composite data breaks down
2012-03-29 16:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to be only aware on these breakdowns...but they don't carry the weight factor that the broader market information would suggest
2012-03-29 16:39:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows in the Dow as well
2012-03-29 16:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO, however, is still hanging in there
2012-03-29 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests that money may be coming out of the "cream stocks" and into the other areas, like the Mid Caps
2012-03-29 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO is also hanging in there as well
2012-03-29 16:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might be looking at quarterly window dressing here
2012-03-29 16:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: out of the large caps and into the mid and small caps that have, by far, better percentage gains over the first quarter
2012-03-29 16:41:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again..all portfolio mangers want is a snapshot of what they hold into the quarterlies
2012-03-29 16:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once that's done
2012-03-29 16:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can reallocate all over again
2012-03-29 16:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could be the situation here
2012-03-29 16:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we can't base on trading on assumptions
2012-03-29 16:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the patterns are what they are
2012-03-29 16:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a defensive position here is still warranted
2012-03-29 16:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no real changes on the TM breadth MCO
2012-03-29 16:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but being negative again today has now pushed the TM breadth MCSUM to not only lower lows, but we have also broken back below the +500 level
2012-03-29 16:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the structure here too on the MCSUM
2012-03-29 16:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see that it's also sagging here
2012-03-29 16:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a top beneath a top for good measure
2012-03-29 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the sector charts
2012-03-29 16:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO is now "oversold"
2012-03-29 16:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finished just slightly higher than its last lows
2012-03-29 16:45:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good pattern here
2012-03-29 16:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the way the MCO moved below the zero line recently, and then spiked higher back above zero, only to accelerate to the downside
2012-03-29 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a classic exhaustion pattern so take a mental picture of it for future reference
2012-03-29 16:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a near term break of the previous lows giving us a sell here
2012-03-29 16:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2012-03-29 16:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term
2012-03-29 16:46:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the relationship between the MCO and it's components remains corrective at this time
2012-03-29 16:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a 15% gain is hard to give up
2012-03-29 16:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to bank here I would think and stand aside
2012-03-29 16:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a 9% gain on the XLP to this juncture
2012-03-29 16:48:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it remains bouyant
2012-03-29 16:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: haven't looked at these charts in 3 weeks...forgive the lag
2012-03-29 16:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottoms above bottoms also control the XLP breadth MCO pattern
2012-03-29 16:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe a hold here is warranted
2012-03-29 16:49:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a break below the consolidation area of last week as a sell trigger
2012-03-29 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here for now
2012-03-29 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is keeping as much as the gains as possible
2012-03-29 16:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and preserving them
2012-03-29 16:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ugh
2012-03-29 16:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE looks terrible
2012-03-29 16:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: glad we closed earlier in the month
2012-03-29 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sell signal there across the board
2012-03-29 16:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a good short play
2012-03-29 16:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have to remember
2012-03-29 16:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the broader market remains corrective here
2012-03-29 16:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much so, that if there are any gains on the downside, they will tend to be hard to come by
2012-03-29 16:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would pass
2012-03-29 16:51:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I shorted XLE on the close, twt, LOL
2012-03-29 16:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would!
2012-03-29 16:51:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hit and run
2012-03-29 16:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO also moved to lower lows today
2012-03-29 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have also hit our upside price target given back in January of 16
2012-03-29 16:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's no reason to hang around there...tight stop or close
2012-03-29 16:52:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't like the structure there
2012-03-29 16:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small double top probably in play as well
2012-03-29 16:53:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time price highs today in the XLV today
2012-03-29 16:53:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the defensive sectors remain well and good at this point
2012-03-29 16:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's a good thing longer term
2012-03-29 16:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as money may be leaving the market better than at any time since last fall
2012-03-29 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not all going out of the market...it's going into the defensive areas (so far)
2012-03-29 16:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder...
2012-03-29 16:54:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLV price chart
2012-03-29 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could the market be stuck in a trading range of sorts just like the one we see trace out on the XLV in February?
2012-03-29 16:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to John
2012-03-29 16:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could had been a rounding top, no?
2012-03-29 16:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it wasn't
2012-03-29 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it stayed within the confines...let me check
2012-03-29 16:56:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep
2012-03-29 16:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it stayed in and around the 20 and 50 day EMA
2012-03-29 16:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it wasn't rounding...it was just resting
2012-03-29 16:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good example from our conversation from yesterday
2012-03-29 16:56:39 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: I'll take a look at that later thanks
2012-03-29 16:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO is now putting in another bottom above a bottom
2012-03-29 16:57:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remains corrective at this time
2012-03-29 16:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a hold rating there
2012-03-29 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK, however, is now looking like the XLY data
2012-03-29 16:58:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and anyone who went long around the December lows should consider taking some money off the table for the time being
2012-03-29 16:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 17% since that time...not bad
2012-03-29 16:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was the upside objective on that one?
2012-03-29 16:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I forget
2012-03-29 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was 28
2012-03-29 17:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: target reached there too
2012-03-29 17:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moved to 30 probably with a little help from that fruit logo company
2012-03-29 17:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: btw
2012-03-29 17:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IF we are about to have a technical breakdown here
2012-03-29 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AAPL puts may not be a bad play...way out of the money
2012-03-29 17:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first support there is 580
2012-03-29 17:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then 525
2012-03-29 17:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe...what would you do Lew?
2012-03-29 17:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 550's?
2012-03-29 17:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't know what to do...I would have to take my clues by the premiums
2012-03-29 17:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a recommendation here folks
2012-03-29 17:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just talking out loud
2012-03-29 17:03:11 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: Dave, quick question?
2012-03-29 17:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCSUM moved back above its zero line today
2012-03-29 17:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remains on a short term buy
2012-03-29 17:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fire away John
2012-03-29 17:04:02 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: Price action in ES is not looking anything but bullish.  Maybe a HnS is forming maybe.
2012-03-29 17:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: daily?
2012-03-29 17:04:22 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: can you address again when unwilling buyers step in?
2012-03-29 17:04:32 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: hourly HnS
2012-03-29 17:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the unwilling step in when they are forced to...like last Monday
2012-03-29 17:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can give you a read on the cash market...not the futures
2012-03-29 17:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: daily volume pattern is not consistent with a head and shoulders pattern
2012-03-29 17:06:35 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: no? volume is fading from left to right
2012-03-29 17:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem is the lack of volume last Monday
2012-03-29 17:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume doesn't fade on the head
2012-03-29 17:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have high volume on the left
2012-03-29 17:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have exhaustion generally on the head
2012-03-29 17:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it above average volume would suffice
2012-03-29 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then lower volume on the right
2012-03-29 17:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we had above average on Monday
2012-03-29 17:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then I could go with it
2012-03-29 17:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I tend to follow the rules on a strict basis
2012-03-29 17:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless if it is
2012-03-29 17:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you now see that money is now moving out of the SPX on an internal basis
2012-03-29 17:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this continues
2012-03-29 17:08:36 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: starting on the 15th?
2012-03-29 17:08:51 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: sorry 13th
2012-03-29 17:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be the beginning of the left...yes
2012-03-29 17:09:20 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: yes
2012-03-29 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the daily bar on the 26th that's a problem
2012-03-29 17:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...here's something you need to watch for
2012-03-29 17:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more and more people that start seeing this as a head and shoulders pattern
2012-03-29 17:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the less and less likely it will be one
2012-03-29 17:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?
2012-03-29 17:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if everyone is trading off the same information
2012-03-29 17:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it won't happen
2012-03-29 17:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-03-29 17:10:22 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: i agree
2012-03-29 17:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from your experience
2012-03-29 17:10:35 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: that's why I'm very interested in unwilling buyers
2012-03-29 17:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the less experienced technicians will call it that way because it "looks" that way
2012-03-29 17:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without any regard to the volume component
2012-03-29 17:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the most important part of the pattern
2012-03-29 17:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so something to watch for
2012-03-29 17:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my feel here
2012-03-29 17:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that there are too many cheerleaders right now rooting for the downside and a break of trend
2012-03-29 17:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we touched upon that yesterday
2012-03-29 17:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with everyone climbing over each other to be the first one to say "we topped"!
2012-03-29 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the top will come when no one says anything about it 
2012-03-29 17:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the majority doesn't think it can be done
2012-03-29 17:12:41 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: i agree
2012-03-29 17:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the best thing about today's internet technology
2012-03-29 17:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that you can sit back and read what people are posting and not have to guess what people are thinking
2012-03-29 17:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know by now that there are certain posters on message boards who are almost always wrong about calling a top
2012-03-29 17:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less a bottom
2012-03-29 17:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they come out
2012-03-29 17:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (as they have, by the way)
2012-03-29 17:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it's not likely that they're going to be...well...they'll probably remain consistent
2012-03-29 17:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: theses are the "unwilling"
2012-03-29 17:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those would rather have 15 minutes of fame and tell the world about their ability to trade a turning point
2012-03-29 17:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they NEED to be right
2012-03-29 17:15:06 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: you see unwilling buyers in the boards?
2012-03-29 17:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's their egos
2012-03-29 17:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many
2012-03-29 17:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you do to
2012-03-29 17:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I don't need to mention names
2012-03-29 17:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will turn when those who have fought the trend give up
2012-03-29 17:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and were unwilling to do so
2012-03-29 17:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to work
2012-03-29 17:16:29 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: ok
2012-03-29 17:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...we finished the sectors...let's move to the volume McClellan's
2012-03-29 17:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows on the CO NYSE volume MCO
2012-03-29 17:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to have a reset there
2012-03-29 17:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite is hanging in there now
2012-03-29 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could be part of this defensive move we saw in the staples, health care and utility sectors
2012-03-29 17:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less, moving to Bond CEF's, etc.
2012-03-29 17:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it should be interesting to see how the breadth charts look this weekend
2012-03-29 17:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the longer term
2012-03-29 17:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the Bond and Preferred A/D lines continue to make new highs
2012-03-29 17:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this PROMISES us higher equity prices, overall, later on down the line
2012-03-29 17:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows in both the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's
2012-03-29 17:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a snapback to the zero line is to be expected near term
2012-03-29 17:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2012-03-29 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe higher price highs to get the unwilling to blow off the pattern (?)
2012-03-29 17:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows on the volume MCO's of the SPX, OEX and Dow
2012-03-29 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML
2012-03-29 17:20:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup...we're running out of gas here
2012-03-29 17:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (darn Las Vegas)
2012-03-29 17:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on the TM volume MCO as well
2012-03-29 17:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too bad...but it looks like now that we're not going to get the refueling we needed to continue
2012-03-29 17:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but longer term
2012-03-29 17:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will be healthier for whatever we can take out of the system
2012-03-29 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market definitely seems nervous about something here
2012-03-29 17:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the next couple of weeks then
2012-03-29 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and assuming that we break down in the composite NYSE MCO data
2012-03-29 17:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important to watch the individual postings on the MCSUM
2012-03-29 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will they expand, or will we see large separations one day...and then congest again??
2012-03-29 17:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of thing will tell us just how much longer this might go on
2012-03-29 17:23:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now
2012-03-29 17:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other than a last gasp move higher near term
2012-03-29 17:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it seems that the bulls still don't want to step up here
2012-03-29 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that another month or so of sideways movement is probably going to be the result
2012-03-29 17:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the volume oscillators
2012-03-29 17:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no much in the way of changes to the CVI's
2012-03-29 17:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the STVO's that remain stubbornly neutral
2012-03-29 17:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the VTO's of the SPX and NDX are now breaking down
2012-03-29 17:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll throw the OEX in there too even though it's only challenging its prior lows
2012-03-29 17:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .93
2012-03-29 17:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah...good news
2012-03-29 17:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Open 10 is now "oversold" at 1.06
2012-03-29 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bigger problem it would seem
2012-03-29 17:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to get the 21 day and 55 day SMA of the NYSE TRIN back below the "overbought" line seen on the chart
2012-03-29 17:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we do that...then we might be a better position to re-initiate the uptrend
2012-03-29 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.09
2012-03-29 17:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2012-03-29 17:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the bullish side of neutral
2012-03-29 17:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.03
2012-03-29 17:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .98
2012-03-29 17:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...how about this?
2012-03-29 17:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe we're due for a snapback to what was the highs of last year
2012-03-29 17:29:14 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: 1370
2012-03-29 17:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will allow some time to relieve much of the high "overbought" readings we see in the intermediate term indicators such as the MCSUM
2012-03-29 17:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while we're at it
2012-03-29 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...1350-1370
2012-03-29 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be fine
2012-03-29 17:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the TRIN charts
2012-03-29 17:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking especially at the price charts shown
2012-03-29 17:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all this time of advance
2012-03-29 17:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: about 3 months worth
2012-03-29 17:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have this nagging bigger charting problem that nobody really addresses..so let's do so here
2012-03-29 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the 1 year TM, NASDAQ and NYA daily charts
2012-03-29 17:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's wrong with the picture of these three broader market charts?
2012-03-29 17:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone?
2012-03-29 17:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should jump out at you without you thinking about
2012-03-29 17:31:38 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: there not in agreement
2012-03-29 17:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no, they are not
2012-03-29 17:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYA has yet to take out its 2011 highs
2012-03-29 17:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that, as a chartist, is a very big problem
2012-03-29 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we like to see all ships rise with the same degree of float
2012-03-29 17:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why is it then
2012-03-29 17:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NASDAQ can move above the 2011 highs
2012-03-29 17:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Wilshire 5000 which includes AMEX stocks
2012-03-29 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the old true blue...the mother of all markets...has yet to see new highs here?
2012-03-29 17:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2012-03-29 17:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neither has the FTSE
2012-03-29 17:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nor the DAX
2012-03-29 17:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are close
2012-03-29 17:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...let me check that
2012-03-29 17:34:37 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: dax looks like old blue
2012-03-29 17:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...neither one has
2012-03-29 17:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be candid
2012-03-29 17:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there's anything that is in the bears corner here
2012-03-29 17:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's this
2012-03-29 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: simple?
2012-03-29 17:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2012-03-29 17:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it means something
2012-03-29 17:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since these same indices have led the entire markets higher up until...this last advance
2012-03-29 17:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...this is as any good reason why maybe banking some profits here is the best coarse of action
2012-03-29 17:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and seeing how things shake out over the next week or so
2012-03-29 17:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-03-29 17:37:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the MID and the NYA have yet to see new highs
2012-03-29 17:37:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add the RUT, but interestingly enough, the SML has
2012-03-29 17:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strange times, to be sure
2012-03-29 17:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-03-29 17:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know what the bulls really need?
2012-03-29 17:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is for Prechter to be interviewed about the upcoming bear market 
2012-03-29 17:38:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2012-03-29 17:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it never fails
2012-03-29 17:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know what else never fails?
2012-03-29 17:39:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Richard Russell could chime in for icing
2012-03-29 17:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if Richard Russell suddenly turns bullish...that's one for the bears!
2012-03-29 17:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go!
2012-03-29 17:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-03-29 17:39:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2012-03-29 17:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to understand
2012-03-29 17:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know both
2012-03-29 17:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I love them dearly
2012-03-29 17:40:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but man...the timing of their interviews is just unbelievable since...well...the last 20 years
2012-03-29 17:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2012-03-29 17:40:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh boy!
2012-03-29 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...let's play it defensively here
2012-03-29 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the bulls come around
2012-03-29 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can always move back in
2012-03-29 17:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the structures here
2012-03-29 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the lack of effort by the buyers is telling
2012-03-29 17:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too bad
2012-03-29 17:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but..all good trends must come to an end eventually
2012-03-29 17:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no rush here to fold
2012-03-29 17:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no bells going off
2012-03-29 17:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're allowed to rest here
2012-03-29 17:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be healthy
2012-03-29 17:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2012-03-29 17:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do have a good old fashioned shake out
2012-03-29 17:42:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes you wonder what the FED will do about all those QE3 rumors
2012-03-29 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and off we go again
2012-03-29 17:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...price objectives have been reached
2012-03-29 17:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now time to say thank you
2012-03-29 17:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully we get one more nice rally out of this over the next day or so to unload
2012-03-29 17:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch breadth here
2012-03-29 17:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is all that matters
2012-03-29 17:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing else
2012-03-29 17:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow could be up 300 points
2012-03-29 17:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if breadth is flat...
2012-03-29 17:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there 's nothing else
2012-03-29 17:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-03-29 17:44:27 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: thanks Dave
2012-03-29 17:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember we are back to regular schedule next week...Tuesday and Thursday
2012-03-29 17:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you all have a great weekend
2012-03-29 17:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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