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Posts: 4,726
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-03-29 16:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-03-29 16:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-03-29 16:01:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Good, thanks-and you?
2011-03-29 16:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dizzy - too much running around
2011-03-29 16:01:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good thing you don't look before you come LOL
2011-03-29 16:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good thing I have these chats to keep me coherent!
2011-03-29 16:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-03-29 16:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and grounded
2011-03-29 16:02:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-03-29 16:02:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: a good exercise for you, as well
2011-03-29 16:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks...I get plenty, thank you very much
2011-03-29 16:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in a way
2011-03-29 16:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I figure
2011-03-29 16:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm still moving around without the aid of I'll take advantage of that as long as I can
2011-03-29 16:03:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet!
2011-03-29 16:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's terrible when you brain tells you you're still 18 and your body says...HA!
2011-03-29 16:04:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: know the feeling LOL
2011-03-29 16:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no idea what the market did today...let me look
2011-03-29 16:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up a little
2011-03-29 16:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-03-29 16:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully the MCO's confirmed
2011-03-29 16:05:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: mmm
2011-03-29 16:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...give me a sec and we'll get going
2011-03-29 16:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get the combo chart for perspective - one moment
2011-03-29 16:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-03-29 16:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's start with the NYAD
2011-03-29 16:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which went to new all time highs today
2011-03-29 16:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any talk of a bear market getting started has just been put to rest
2011-03-29 16:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since breadth of market leads price, and there hasn't been one bear market that has started with the NYAD line at new highs since 1926, it's probably a good bet that this time will be no different
2011-03-29 16:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCO is once again testing the highs of last Friday
2011-03-29 16:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the energy of this current break out to new highs on the NYAD line is so far "average"
2011-03-29 16:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the bottom of the combo chart at the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-03-29 16:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now just under the MCSUM gap resistance area that would tell us that a bottom has been created
2011-03-29 16:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless we get some sort of explosive move tomorrow
2011-03-29 16:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're about 2 days away from moving above this important resistance area
2011-03-29 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-03-29 16:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do have the jobs data on Friday
2011-03-29 16:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could just sneak within this zone of resistance over the next day or so and then have something to break out on this coming Friday
2011-03-29 16:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or like what's been the case for about 2 years now
2011-03-29 16:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market has tended to front run this jobs data and made its move the day before
2011-03-29 16:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as the Fishhook is concerned
2011-03-29 16:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its now running out of time
2011-03-29 16:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the structure of the pattern itself
2011-03-29 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterdays down close (that was suggested by the mid range close on Friday) gave the current MCSUM structure the look of a ledge formation
2011-03-29 16:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today's test of Friday's highs has now taken that out of the picture
2011-03-29 16:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-03-29 16:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing left for the bears right now is a sharp reversal to the downside indicated by the hook
2011-03-29 16:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again...we're running out of time to do this
2011-03-29 16:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who may be wondering
2011-03-29 16:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 1234 SPX downside objective would be taken off the table if the MCO is able to move above the February highs seen in the MCO
2011-03-29 16:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NAAD line -
2011-03-29 16:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see constructive evidence of a uptrend in play here
2011-03-29 16:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the data able to move above 19 day EMA
2011-03-29 16:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: find resistance at the 39 day EMA
2011-03-29 16:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to test the 19 day
2011-03-29 16:18:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then push itself above the intermediate term TREND of the 39 day EMA today
2011-03-29 16:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that the 19 day EMA is running below the 39 day EMA
2011-03-29 16:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which we know this without even looking because the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is below its zero line
2011-03-29 16:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at this MCSUM
2011-03-29 16:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that, here too, we have overhead Gap Resistance in play here
2011-03-29 16:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even more importantly
2011-03-29 16:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this current turn in the MCSUM occurred right at what we would consider bull market trend support at the -250 level
2011-03-29 16:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add to this that both the NASDAQ MCSUM and the NYSE MCSUM are in sync with each other right now
2011-03-29 16:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a very persuasive case can be made that we have pretty much finished up the correction that was needed in a powerful uptrend
2011-03-29 16:22:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it took a earthquake and tsunami to do so
2011-03-29 16:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interestingly enough
2011-03-29 16:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there were reports today
2011-03-29 16:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that 3 of the nuclear plants in Japan have had partial melt downs
2011-03-29 16:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and STILL the market rallied
2011-03-29 16:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-03-29 16:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money ain't running away here
2011-03-29 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has discounted what it believes to be the worse from all of this
2011-03-29 16:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this includes the Arab struggles
2011-03-29 16:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Teflon market
2011-03-29 16:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-03-29 16:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now, with all this said
2011-03-29 16:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's now go back to DP and see how things are really doing underneath the surface
2011-03-29 16:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved to higher highs today
2011-03-29 16:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so did the components
2011-03-29 16:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-03-29 16:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still are falling behind in this relationship
2011-03-29 16:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM has now fulfilled its simple snapback to or towards the +250 line
2011-03-29 16:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're now on the edge of things either moving lower or accelerating higher
2011-03-29 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the close up chart of the CO NYSE MCSUM
2011-03-29 16:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that we are still below our gap resistance zone
2011-03-29 16:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: allowing the pattern to continue a little higher from here before moving into this area of resistance
2011-03-29 16:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about last week
2011-03-29 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will take the MCO to move above its horizontal resistance tops of the last several months for the MCSUM to move above this gap resistance area
2011-03-29 16:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what will push the trend of money to accelerate to do this is anyone's guess
2011-03-29 16:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's what's needed to get the job done
2011-03-29 16:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing to keep cognizant of is that we had quite of bit of negative sentiment at the earthquake bottom
2011-03-29 16:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these kind of readings do provide significant bottoms in prices when they do occur
2011-03-29 16:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and could, I guess, provide the exception to the rule when it comes to divergent structures
2011-03-29 16:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2011-03-29 16:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike the CO breadth MCO
2011-03-29 16:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO did NOT move to higher highs today
2011-03-29 16:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could be a warning that we're probably not going to get much further near term
2011-03-29 16:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually when we see the CO data leading the composite
2011-03-29 16:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's usually a sign of trouble overall to the structural integrity of the price pattern itself
2011-03-29 16:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be different this time, I guess
2011-03-29 16:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I still wouldn't jump to any forgone conclusions at this stage
2011-03-29 16:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher highs today on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2011-03-29 16:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still we have this nagging problem with the components not confirming this move
2011-03-29 16:33:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: gotta say, I hate "different this time" situations
2011-03-29 16:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gotta say that too
2011-03-29 16:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-03-29 16:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about last week
2011-03-29 16:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: extraordinary times do provide extraordinary outcomes
2011-03-29 16:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm just trying to fair and as balanced as I can be
2011-03-29 16:34:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2011-03-29 16:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially in light of the fact that "something different" did happen today with the MCO able to move to higher highs without the benefit of the components moving in kind
2011-03-29 16:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is just so much liquidity out there
2011-03-29 16:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can bet the Fed Funds desk has been very busy over the last two weeks providing that extra bit of liquidity to keep the markets from rocking
2011-03-29 16:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that 200 point down day for the Dow was a sort of wake up call
2011-03-29 16:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not so much that it happened
2011-03-29 16:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but HOW it happened
2011-03-29 16:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...all conjecture at this point
2011-03-29 16:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCO
2011-03-29 16:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it did NOT move to new highs with the NASDAQ
2011-03-29 16:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we've lost the fishhook structure on the NDX breadth MCSUM
2011-03-29 16:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could mean we have a bottom in place now
2011-03-29 16:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are knocking on the door of the gap resistance zone as well
2011-03-29 16:38:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so like the bulls had to last week at this time, now the bears have to step up to the bar or THEY will lose their hold here
2011-03-29 16:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2011-03-29 16:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the current position of the NDX breadth MCSUM
2011-03-29 16:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would need something rather "explosive" to break above this gap level
2011-03-29 16:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do see better than average breadth tomorrow or the next day, I would be a buyer
2011-03-29 16:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand
2011-03-29 16:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe we're in the process of snapping back to what was previous support on the NDX breadth MCSUM as well
2011-03-29 16:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: be that as it may
2011-03-29 16:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing here is that we are right there, now, on getting some short term clarity
2011-03-29 16:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that of a couple of weeks at least
2011-03-29 16:41:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you have to figure
2011-03-29 16:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might see a lot of money come in before 4/15 for retirement purposes as well
2011-03-29 16:44:21 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I see divergence in NDX "Volume" MCO. Also OEX and DJIA "Volume" MCSUMs kind of "ledge" pattern to my eyes. There are other charts like these too.
2011-03-29 16:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good point...we'll have to review the volume data as well tonight
2011-03-29 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a slightly higher high in the SPX breadth MCO
2011-03-29 16:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it sure doesn't look like a hook anymore on the MCSUM, does it?
2011-03-29 16:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it found support on the +250 level
2011-03-29 16:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looks to be snapping back to the +500 level
2011-03-29 16:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: darn components
2011-03-29 16:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be so much easier if they were confirming the move
2011-03-29 16:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only a test of last Friday's highs on the OEX breadth MCO
2011-03-29 16:48:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the OEX breadth MCSUM has fulfilled its technical snapback up to the +250 level
2011-03-29 16:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...something interesting here
2011-03-29 16:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow closed at its highest levels since the February top
2011-03-29 16:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without the benefit the Dow breadth MCO
2011-03-29 16:49:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: geez
2011-03-29 16:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know here
2011-03-29 16:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher highs on the MID breadth MCO
2011-03-29 16:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the price pattern remains in its consolidation
2011-03-29 16:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MID breadth MCSUM
2011-03-29 16:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have a nice slope of a fishhook
2011-03-29 16:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after bouncing off the +250 level
2011-03-29 16:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...this market sure wants to go higher, doesn't it?
2011-03-29 16:51:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the mid pattern is saying double zigzag to me
2011-03-29 16:51:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-03-29 16:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML went to new highs today!
2011-03-29 16:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're starting to get the components charged up
2011-03-29 16:52:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SML breadth MCSUM finding support at its zero line
2011-03-29 16:52:48 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Hello Fib, I have been thinking about the components non confirmation of the MCO move. Would it also be valid the other way around? I.e. that the MCO preferably should confirm a move in the components? Which of the two confirmations are more important?
2011-03-29 16:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be very careful here Lew on applying counts
2011-03-29 16:53:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: am, but....
2011-03-29 16:53:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's something going on here that doesn't quite fit a corrective wave
2011-03-29 16:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tonny - in theory we want everything to move as one cohesive unit in one direction or the other
2011-03-29 16:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components that make up the MCO are the 19 day and 39 day EMA's
2011-03-29 16:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the total difference of which is what we get with the MCO
2011-03-29 16:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components, therefore, are the fuel lines to the engine of the car that produces the speed necessary for it to go forward
2011-03-29 16:55:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's happening here is that the fuel lines are NOT clear
2011-03-29 16:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are clogged
2011-03-29 16:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this we are not getting a full amount of fuel hitting the carburetor
2011-03-29 16:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will tend then to get sputters
2011-03-29 16:56:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back fires
2011-03-29 16:56:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although you can increase your speed
2011-03-29 16:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be with a greater amount of effort to do so
2011-03-29 16:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, ideally, we want everything running together
2011-03-29 16:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with little or no effort
2011-03-29 16:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any deviation from this and it's not likely you're going to be able to trend
2011-03-29 16:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2011-03-29 16:57:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another way to look at it
2011-03-29 16:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be like putting unleaded fuel in an engine that needs higher octane in order for it to work properly
2011-03-29 16:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...can we blow out the line?
2011-03-29 16:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can we find the fuel station that does have a higher octane so that we can actually correct this problem?
2011-03-29 16:58:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure
2011-03-29 16:58:51 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Makes perfect sense I am just thinking that at the beginning of a move the MCO could move ahead of its components
2011-03-29 16:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all part of the math
2011-03-29 16:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in all my years of doing this
2011-03-29 16:59:19 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: The components could then catch up later and provide bigger moves
2011-03-29 16:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (and that's a pretty long time)
2011-03-29 16:59:27 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-03-29 16:59:49 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: When everything got into sync
2011-03-29 16:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anytime the MCO leads without the acknowledgment of the components is doomed to a reset
2011-03-29 17:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too far, too fast
2011-03-29 17:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it has been an extraordinary couple of weeks
2011-03-29 17:00:22 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Makes perfect sense. Thanks
2011-03-29 17:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing like what we've had to deal with has ever happened in the modern era
2011-03-29 17:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (that I know of)
2011-03-29 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then again
2011-03-29 17:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are dealing with the most amount of liquidity EVER seen since man started trading stones
2011-03-29 17:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a learning experience for all of us
2011-03-29 17:01:46 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-03-29 17:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm not going to sit here and claim to have all the answers
2011-03-29 17:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what I will say is
2011-03-29 17:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that based on what we've had to work with in the past
2011-03-29 17:02:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds continue to suggest some sort of reset before we really get going
2011-03-29 17:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be different this time
2011-03-29 17:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, yes, the bears are running out of time
2011-03-29 17:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they couldn't even follow up to yesterdays end of day collapse
2011-03-29 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should tell us something right there
2011-03-29 17:03:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but, we also remain below Fridays highs-after breaking /Fridays lows
2011-03-29 17:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on some...not all
2011-03-29 17:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're choppy
2011-03-29 17:04:01 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Fib, in Volume Charts I see some divergences in NDX MCO for example and ledge like patterns for OEX and DJIA MCSUMs. What do you say?
2011-03-29 17:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is what we should expect here
2011-03-29 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me finish up the breadth charts and we'll go there next
2011-03-29 17:04:32 [Message] tracca -> Chat: np
2011-03-29 17:04:41 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Is a reset a retest of the bottom or a divergent bottom? Or could it be just a pull back of a 1-2%?
2011-03-29 17:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that today's close on the SML price chart is only lower than the high close of February
2011-03-29 17:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point Tonny
2011-03-29 17:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing has changed in that respect
2011-03-29 17:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds of a divergent low needed here is starting to reduce
2011-03-29 17:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we see something happen that would invalidate our downside targets
2011-03-29 17:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're stuck here watching
2011-03-29 17:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the good news is
2011-03-29 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't take that much more on the bull side to take care of that
2011-03-29 17:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was a good day for the bulls
2011-03-29 17:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they bellied up with some swagger today
2011-03-29 17:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is something that we need to accept as to what it might suggest
2011-03-29 17:08:50 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: My bias turned bullish today as we came off the lows of the morning and closed at the top.
2011-03-29 17:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was something, wasn't it?
2011-03-29 17:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was watching for about a 15 minute period
2011-03-29 17:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow moving from -5 to -30
2011-03-29 17:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it just bounced around
2011-03-29 17:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I thought...they're going to take this baby up
2011-03-29 17:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just felt it
2011-03-29 17:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to consider here
2011-03-29 17:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the 1310 level on the cash SPX
2011-03-29 17:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was our .618 retracement level
2011-03-29 17:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was violated...and we snapped back to it today
2011-03-29 17:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and off we went
2011-03-29 17:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-03-29 17:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott wise
2011-03-29 17:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is helping the bear cause
2011-03-29 17:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that with the divergences in the components and the MCO's
2011-03-29 17:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it still can be a flat here
2011-03-29 17:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this "B" wave doesn't smell as much as it did before
2011-03-29 17:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember back to last September
2011-03-29 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID and SML leading to higher highs?
2011-03-29 17:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...these two basket of stocks both held within their consolidation areas during the collapse
2011-03-29 17:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we know that we're near a bottom here
2011-03-29 17:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only real question has been do we need a retest?
2011-03-29 17:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the question now becoming
2011-03-29 17:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: WILL there be a retest?
2011-03-29 17:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it necessary with all of the bad news out there?
2011-03-29 17:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same thing happened with the 2009 lows
2011-03-29 17:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the way of sentiment
2011-03-29 17:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that low was as "large" as the 1932 bottoms as far as sentiment was concerned
2011-03-29 17:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are many angles one can take in this business
2011-03-29 17:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now
2011-03-29 17:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to admire the tenacity of money moving back into the markets here
2011-03-29 17:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line is back to new all time highs
2011-03-29 17:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that was after a break of its accelerated rising bottoms line
2011-03-29 17:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NAAD line is showing constructive behavior with its playing tag with its EMA's
2011-03-29 17:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the speed in which the NAAD line is moving higher is at the fastest rate in over 2 months
2011-03-29 17:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't poo poo this kind of data
2011-03-29 17:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is what it is
2011-03-29 17:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we remain flexible here
2011-03-29 17:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market says see ya...I'm on board
2011-03-29 17:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not...I'm on that train too
2011-03-29 17:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't care
2011-03-29 17:17:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto
2011-03-29 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just give me enough guidance to make a profitable trade
2011-03-29 17:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll leave others for the why's and wherefores
2011-03-29 17:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO is testing its February highs
2011-03-29 17:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further strength there and we're likely to move all the way back up to the +500 level on the MCSUM
2011-03-29 17:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...breadth was another constructive day
2011-03-29 17:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need now is some good acceleration in money flow to give us the all clear on the long side
2011-03-29 17:19:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: stvo overbought-a problem, or no?
2011-03-29 17:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears are running out of time fact...the market has been up for 6 out of the last 7 days
2011-03-29 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even with a reflex rally, that's a pretty long time
2011-03-29 17:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be a problem...yes
2011-03-29 17:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...I'm only sharing what I see
2011-03-29 17:20:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just wondering
2011-03-29 17:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully pulling it altogether at the end
2011-03-29 17:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me too
2011-03-29 17:20:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool, thx
2011-03-29 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move to the volume McClellan's first
2011-03-29 17:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-03-29 17:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is crazy stuff
2011-03-29 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO moved to higher highs today
2011-03-29 17:22:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the CO NYSE volume MCSUM continues to struggle here
2011-03-29 17:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing very little conviction by the bulls
2011-03-29 17:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means...a lot of this is just short covering
2011-03-29 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice to see that it bounced off the zero line
2011-03-29 17:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bulls really need to "extend" things here or...well...they'll be impotent
2011-03-29 17:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing with the composite NYSE volume MCSUM
2011-03-29 17:26:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this market is definitely out of sync
2011-03-29 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2011-03-29 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is any kind of bad news near term, we could see a big slip and fall
2011-03-29 17:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ADP comes out in the morning
2011-03-29 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder
2011-03-29 17:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as Tracca points out
2011-03-29 17:27:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are some continuing problems here
2011-03-29 17:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that really need to be addressed
2011-03-29 17:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be all for naught
2011-03-29 17:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we start seeing some significant improvement
2011-03-29 17:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would continue to be in cash here
2011-03-29 17:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or on a hold with a bullish bias as indicated by the cumulative charts
2011-03-29 17:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume data looks very good here however
2011-03-29 17:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how we moved to higher highs in the MCO to help push the NASDAQ volume MCSUM back above its zero line
2011-03-29 17:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% component is also above its early March highs
2011-03-29 17:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this MCO can get above its early December highs
2011-03-29 17:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would pretty much put the downside price target of 2500 into question
2011-03-29 17:30:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: should we be looking at early March on the Naz?
2011-03-29 17:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the first component range that needed to be broken
2011-03-29 17:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not the key to this, however
2011-03-29 17:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's a start
2011-03-29 17:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still could be a ledge on the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2011-03-29 17:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is not being co-operative at all
2011-03-29 17:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't get a rhythm here
2011-03-29 17:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means we're choppy
2011-03-29 17:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we're choppy
2011-03-29 17:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must be corrective
2011-03-29 17:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's my logic here
2011-03-29 17:32:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet
2011-03-29 17:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...
2011-03-29 17:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you look at the volume MCSUM's
2011-03-29 17:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you would think that we're about to be hit over the head with a mallet
2011-03-29 17:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely no strength at all
2011-03-29 17:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2011-03-29 17:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML and MID volume MCO's look fine
2011-03-29 17:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could it be
2011-03-29 17:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the large caps are being shunned for the growth area given the problems overseas where the growth stocks are not so dependent?
2011-03-29 17:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really the multi nationals that are having the problems here
2011-03-29 17:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCO has nice structure to it
2011-03-29 17:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now at multi month highs
2011-03-29 17:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a fishhook on the MCSUM
2011-03-29 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shrug)
2011-03-29 17:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-03-29 17:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have a very mixed bag of data
2011-03-29 17:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth of market looks OK
2011-03-29 17:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: saying there is more than ample liquidity out there to raise all boats
2011-03-29 17:37:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the area that makes prices go, volume plurality, is still being VERY selective
2011-03-29 17:37:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: most of these volume summations remain below zero-can that be healthy?
2011-03-29 17:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a matter of healthy
2011-03-29 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a matter of balance
2011-03-29 17:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind that all of the MCSUM's have been above their zero lines for a good part of the last 6 months
2011-03-29 17:38:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just seems like price is higher without volume confirming-much less leading
2011-03-29 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so on a positive note, only testing the zero line has relieved our "overbought" condition
2011-03-29 17:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only being able to test and not much more would more of a bullish indication of intermediate term strength than anything else
2011-03-29 17:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I understand
2011-03-29 17:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's a visual comparison
2011-03-29 17:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's understood
2011-03-29 17:40:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sorry, just basic stuff to me
2011-03-29 17:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the TOOL itself is saying something different
2011-03-29 17:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't be sorry
2011-03-29 17:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's working with an analytical tool
2011-03-29 17:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all see the problem you're pointing out
2011-03-29 17:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you're right
2011-03-29 17:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no denying this
2011-03-29 17:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but your question was
2011-03-29 17:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can it be healthy for these zero line tests?
2011-03-29 17:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the answer to that is...yes...IF it remains so, AND, we can build on it
2011-03-29 17:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember what the MCSUM zero line represents
2011-03-29 17:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it means that both the 19 day and 39 day EMA's of that particular A/D line are flat
2011-03-29 17:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-03-29 17:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: depending on what side of that EMA flat pattern is in relation to the A/D line itself really does determine if it's healthy or not
2011-03-29 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are the EMA's providing support or resistance to this same A/D line?
2011-03-29 17:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is your litmus test
2011-03-29 17:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2011-03-29 17:43:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, thanks
2011-03-29 17:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one in this room should EVER feel like I am debating a question here
2011-03-29 17:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want everyone to feel free in throwing out observations
2011-03-29 17:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only to share concepts and such
2011-03-29 17:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it may open a door not considered
2011-03-29 17:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this room has an open door policy
2011-03-29 17:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're all students here
2011-03-29 17:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: including myself
2011-03-29 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I can be wrong
2011-03-29 17:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (though not too likely)
2011-03-29 17:45:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good, LOL
2011-03-29 17:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just remember that anyone can look at a chart and say "see? - because of this the market should do this!"
2011-03-29 17:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: analytical tools all tell a different story
2011-03-29 17:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the main thing when it comes to any oscillator
2011-03-29 17:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the zero line, or in the case of something like the MACD, the 50% line, these lines are your demarcation points between bullish and bearish behavior
2011-03-29 17:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this same indicator can hold above this neutral line after being above it for a time, then this is bullish behavior
2011-03-29 17:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it can't move back above it after being below it for a time, this would be bearish
2011-03-29 17:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is that we ARE holding zero line support
2011-03-29 17:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we're not doing is moving away from this support in a fashion that would suggest that another bullish time period would be the preferred analysis
2011-03-29 17:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and being that we have been above the zero line for such an extended period of time
2011-03-29 17:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it makes reasonable sense, to provide balance, that we should move below this same zero line for a while
2011-03-29 17:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will we?
2011-03-29 17:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know
2011-03-29 17:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we all see the same thing here
2011-03-29 17:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth is OK...needs some better synchronization with its internals
2011-03-29 17:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the volume side is lethargic at best
2011-03-29 17:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't mean that we can't get another booster shot to move higher
2011-03-29 17:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it doesn't mean that we can move lower either
2011-03-29 17:50:24 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Fib, my question is does the divergent structure between NDX "Volume" MCO with the index have any predictive value?
2011-03-29 17:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being at the zero line means just that...we are undecided
2011-03-29 17:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the NYAD line is all time highs now
2011-03-29 17:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NAAD line is constructive
2011-03-29 17:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: two for the bulls
2011-03-29 17:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lack of energy with these one for the bears
2011-03-29 17:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until one side or the other shows their hand, we need to be patient
2011-03-29 17:51:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no clarity here short term
2011-03-29 17:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and prices can do what ever they want all dependent on what is either being bid higher or lower
2011-03-29 17:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's a issue that carries a lot of weight to an index, then you're going to get anomalies
2011-03-29 17:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like the Japanese earthquake where the high caps broke to new lows, but the mid and small caps did not
2011-03-29 17:53:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every market sequence is as unique as a snowflake
2011-03-29 17:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they all may look the same on the surface
2011-03-29 17:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but upon close examination, not one of them is the same as the other
2011-03-29 17:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as Lew mentioned earlier, STVO's are "overbought"
2011-03-29 17:54:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlikely that we're going to get too far to the upside with these kind of readings
2011-03-29 17:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are just about finished snapping back to their "zero lines"
2011-03-29 17:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as they are below this line, the bears have the advantage
2011-03-29 17:55:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we break above it...the bulls have enough to reassert their bias
2011-03-29 17:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.05
2011-03-29 17:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.10
2011-03-29 17:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we said on Friday
2011-03-29 17:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the Open 10's get to 1.10 or above, it's very hard for the bears to push prices lower for more than a day or so
2011-03-29 17:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN At .77
2011-03-29 17:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.00
2011-03-29 17:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would call that neutral given the McClellan's
2011-03-29 17:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .83
2011-03-29 17:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.05
2011-03-29 17:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-03-29 17:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term - it's anyone's guess
2011-03-29 17:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short term, the bulls are pushing the envelope, but do they have the support behind them to keep it going?
2011-03-29 17:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intermediate term...the bulls remain in control. but overall, traders would now be deemed undecided and looking for clarity
2011-03-29 17:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with everything going on geopolitically, it's no wonder
2011-03-29 17:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line...patience
2011-03-29 17:59:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no sense in chasing to the upside
2011-03-29 17:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no sense in shorting until we get some sort of rhythm in that direction
2011-03-29 18:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...I guess we're in a indecision pattern
2011-03-29 18:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and these kind of patterns, the market will play with both sides and try to take as much money away from you as it can
2011-03-29 18:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: patience
2011-03-29 18:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-03-29 18:01:21 [Message] tracca -> Chat: my question
2011-03-29 18:01:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks for a great chat
2011-03-29 18:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been a very interesting juncture
2011-03-29 18:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's learn from this
2011-03-29 18:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for I have a feeling that we're going to see similar circumstances over the next year
2011-03-29 18:02:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it would seem that stvo may block any power move up right here from the bulls, twt
2011-03-29 18:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed
2011-03-29 18:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the Open 10's will keep any power move to the downside
2011-03-29 18:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're locked here
2011-03-29 18:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're chipping away at the upside
2011-03-29 18:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we keep chipping eventually we're going to break through
2011-03-29 18:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to Tracca's question...MCO volume divergence with price only shows the lack of overall strength within that basket of stocks...that only a smaller few are working the load of the rest of the issues in this same index of, yes, it can be a technical problem especially if the other components in the index don't start sharing this same work load as those who have start to exhaust themselves
2011-03-29 18:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that, I'm going to take my leave
2011-03-29 18:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-03-29 18:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Thursday
2011-03-29 18:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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