All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,726
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-03-25 16:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a good day to you all!
2011-03-25 16:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-03-25 16:01:26 [Message] Rainy -> Chat: quiet
2011-03-25 16:01:36 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Good, how are you?
2011-03-25 16:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fine sir....you should be out clubbing!
2011-03-25 16:02:17 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Not that age anymore.....
2011-03-25 16:02:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-03-25 16:02:21 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: sadly
2011-03-25 16:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you are at heart
2011-03-25 16:02:35 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: always
2011-03-25 16:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing to see in the West End?
2011-03-25 16:02:39 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: thank you
2011-03-25 16:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got to be something on Drury
2011-03-25 16:03:03 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Lots but prefer to snuggle up to the wife nowadays....
2011-03-25 16:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hehe
2011-03-25 16:03:11 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: cozy
2011-03-25 16:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well trained it would seem
2011-03-25 16:03:31 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: like a cat...
2011-03-25 16:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before I get started
2011-03-25 16:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-03-25 16:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a cat?
2011-03-25 16:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better a dog...cats don't listen!
2011-03-25 16:04:05 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Question - just going back to yesterday's chat - is there any technical reason as to why the market should retest the recent lows (and possibly create mco divergence) rather than merely just head higher from here? What tools are hinting at the possibility of a retest?
2011-03-25 16:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: basically to provide a foundation
2011-03-25 16:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-03-25 16:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you climb a ladder
2011-03-25 16:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only one of the legs is stable enough to hold your weight as you move up the rungs
2011-03-25 16:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then eventually you're probably going to fall over or collapse
2011-03-25 16:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can the market move up without a divergent bottom?
2011-03-25 16:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure
2011-03-25 16:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could we be looking at an exception given the back drop of how we plunged into these same "oversold" levels?
2011-03-25 16:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2011-03-25 16:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but is it a reasonable expectation?
2011-03-25 16:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-03-25 16:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we chatted yesterday
2011-03-25 16:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it fully up to the bulls to correct the inconsistencies we noted between the MCO and it's components
2011-03-25 16:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price wise...we might have done that today
2011-03-25 16:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but internally...I haven't looked as yet
2011-03-25 16:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but my experience says that exceptional times sometimes gives us exception outcomes
2011-03-25 16:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing has changed at this point
2011-03-25 16:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the sigh of relief is evident
2011-03-25 16:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too far, too fast moves in the MCO are almost always retraced to construct texture
2011-03-25 16:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so before I even look at today's final numbers
2011-03-25 16:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically, it would be highly out of character for the market to keep going up from here
2011-03-25 16:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: HOWEVER
2011-03-25 16:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know that we usually see a challenge of the price highs (in this case) even as the MCSUM moves lower before we actually see the full completion of a trending price structure
2011-03-25 16:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've talked about the possibility of an Elliott flat in play here as well
2011-03-25 16:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a minimal test of the February highs
2011-03-25 16:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we could move slightly above them and still keep the corrective forces in check
2011-03-25 16:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: corrections are highly emotionally charged events by and large
2011-03-25 16:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we knew going in that we were likely to be quite choppy here to begin with
2011-03-25 16:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so overall...not too much in the way of surprises going on here
2011-03-25 16:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't be too concerned about the possibility of being left behind
2011-03-25 16:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do break above the February highs AND we the internals support such a move then we can always go back in
2011-03-25 16:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weekly cumulative charts never said to sell
2011-03-25 16:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they only said to be cautious with protective stops
2011-03-25 16:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in this area...the trend remains higher
2011-03-25 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any surprises usually coming to the upside
2011-03-25 16:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm perfectly happy being flat here
2011-03-25 16:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not a pig
2011-03-25 16:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to see conviction under my own terms and not the market's
2011-03-25 16:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-03-25 16:14:32 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: thanks for the in-depth reply
2011-03-25 16:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: np
2011-03-25 16:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for asking
2011-03-25 16:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is being consistent
2011-03-25 16:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not jumping on any ole wagon that might pass by
2011-03-25 16:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: focus
2011-03-25 16:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is always difficult in the face of emotional backdrops
2011-03-25 16:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even more so if bad things happen directly to you
2011-03-25 16:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market goes by the beat of its own drummer
2011-03-25 16:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rhythm...cadence...all very important
2011-03-25 16:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's take a look at DP and see if the bulls stepped up to the plate or not
2011-03-25 16:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued higher today
2011-03-25 16:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still have a discrepancy between it and the components
2011-03-25 16:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is now showing a definite curl to its pattern
2011-03-25 16:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and gives a nice visual example of it looking like a "fishhook"
2011-03-25 16:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the hook, of course, is for the bulls
2011-03-25 16:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to catch them off guard
2011-03-25 16:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just when they believe that the worse is behind them and the trend re-initiates itself
2011-03-25 16:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at today's price bar on the NYA
2011-03-25 16:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we closed toward the bottom end of the range today
2011-03-25 16:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be part of traders taking money off the table before the weekend
2011-03-25 16:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also could be an exhaustive signal as well based on the internals
2011-03-25 16:20:39 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Fib, could your please elaborate on the difference between a fish hook (bull trap) and a decent U turn (bullish), how can I tell which one is occurring?
2011-03-25 16:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2011-03-25 16:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it depends mainly on the expansion of the MCSUM dots
2011-03-25 16:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like a price reversal where it tends to start with short covering
2011-03-25 16:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the demarcation between what could be a turn in the MCSUM and that of a Fishhook is based mainly on the degree of which the individual postings are noted (no less the time taken for this same corrective sequence)
2011-03-25 16:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the postings, or course, come from the the daily MCO readings
2011-03-25 16:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for us to start to expand and change what looks like a Fishhook into something more tradable
2011-03-25 16:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to watch the MCO and it's resistance levels
2011-03-25 16:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: currently...it is the horizontal tops of the MCO's that are key between hook or crook
2011-03-25 16:24:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing with both ledges and hooks is that they don't tend to last longer than a week
2011-03-25 16:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're getting close to some sort of resolution there
2011-03-25 16:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we have to watch how the turn reacts within the gaps that were created going down and into these same lows as well
2011-03-25 16:25:27 [Message] tracca -> Chat: On the current NYSE chart which MCSUM turns (dates) would be the types?
2011-03-25 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the current 21 day close up on the CO MCSUM and we see that we are only now moving into this first area of resistance
2011-03-25 16:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can you rephrase the question Tracca?
2011-03-25 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't understand it
2011-03-25 16:32:18 [Message] tracca -> Chat: the dates from May to now which upturns in MCSUM were the fishhooks, and which were the bullish U turns?
2011-03-25 16:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the CO chart...the only one that failed to become a hook were the December lows
2011-03-25 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hooks and ledges occur only after the internals top out (as measured by the MCSUM) and have been declining
2011-03-25 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other bottoms did not have the structure (or time) needed to become fishhooks
2011-03-25 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the composite
2011-03-25 16:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the September 2010 lows
2011-03-25 16:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you saw the power there and what happened after the bulls were able to overwhelm what should had only been a pause in the larger trend
2011-03-25 16:36:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a nice example of how the high amount of liquidity was able to create a situation that doesn't necessarily take place
2011-03-25 16:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another reason here of why we should give more weight to a hook is that we have only made a flag in the MCO without a test
2011-03-25 16:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we had already had a test...then what looks like could be a hook is really isn't
2011-03-25 16:37:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a turn
2011-03-25 16:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on MCO divergence
2011-03-25 16:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even if we look back to the September period
2011-03-25 16:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that low did have divergence in place unlike the current structure that has been virtually straight up without a pause
2011-03-25 16:38:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (small and sloppy divergence...but it's there)
2011-03-25 16:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a lot of little nuances that will help us in making such determinations
2011-03-25 16:39:49 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you very much
2011-03-25 16:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you
2011-03-25 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the composite
2011-03-25 16:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much of a change from yesterday
2011-03-25 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking something
2011-03-25 16:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we take our line of vision to the 21 day close of the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-03-25 16:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you take your line of vision to where you see the spike low in the MCO
2011-03-25 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that currently we are just below where our "gap resistance" area lies
2011-03-25 16:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next dot up on the MCSUM is the point in which we made our spike low
2011-03-25 16:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the gap between that dot and the one above is our "gap resistance" point
2011-03-25 16:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until the bulls can fill that vacuum
2011-03-25 16:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be very cautious in getting involved with anything prices might be doing just to get you to make a mistake
2011-03-25 16:43:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if cheese to a mouse
2011-03-25 16:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a carrot to a horse
2011-03-25 16:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until this gap is filled
2011-03-25 16:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have nothing but air supporting their work
2011-03-25 16:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gap resistance points are areas in which everyone that was going to sell (in this case) did so
2011-03-25 16:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are the traders the market left behind with this trap
2011-03-25 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this level serves as a ceiling as to the degree of money flow that would be needed to create a new advancing price structure
2011-03-25 16:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we fill it...then we have a go
2011-03-25 16:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until then...
2011-03-25 16:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would try not to get sucked into the markets attempt to play with your emotions
2011-03-25 16:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you got to believe in the tools we're working with
2011-03-25 16:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have the structure of a fishhook on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-03-25 16:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM has now completed its anticipated snapback to the +250 level
2011-03-25 16:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to watch closely on what happens from here
2011-03-25 16:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the NDX breadth MCO to boot
2011-03-25 16:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mid range close on the SPX
2011-03-25 16:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting a down close on Monday
2011-03-25 16:51:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mid range closes on the OEX, Dow and MID as well
2011-03-25 16:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a small point change on the Dow breadth MCO
2011-03-25 16:52:28 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Could you please explain the thinking behind that - mid range close then down close.....
2011-03-25 16:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: part of the range days
2011-03-25 16:52:47 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: is it cycle based?
2011-03-25 16:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to have you review the tutorial...no...it's a trend change indicator
2011-03-25 16:53:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll get the link
2011-03-25 16:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post?id=1664477
2011-03-25 16:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just a simple bar charting technique
2011-03-25 16:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: outside range, inside range, and mid range are all the "next day" only indicators
2011-03-25 16:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're just reversal patterns
2011-03-25 16:54:28 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: thank you - will read it later after the chat
2011-03-25 16:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pleasure
2011-03-25 16:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be noted that the MID price bar also testing the highs of the larger horizontal range today before closing mid range
2011-03-25 16:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much resistance to overcome?
2011-03-25 16:55:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM is not giving any indication at this point of a potential breakout
2011-03-25 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth leads price
2011-03-25 16:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price does not lead breadth
2011-03-25 16:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when it does...watch out for a reset
2011-03-25 16:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good day for the bulls really
2011-03-25 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML price bar is also showing exhaustive behavior today
2011-03-25 16:57:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking around for any takers...and none are found
2011-03-25 16:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO is now up to the levels seen in the past where we saw a top
2011-03-25 16:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a mid range close
2011-03-25 16:57:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-03-25 16:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we have run out of steam to the upside
2011-03-25 16:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we should begin to see a retracement back down to the lower end of the price ranges
2011-03-25 16:59:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the current fishhooks in the various MCSUM's suggest that any decline from here might turn out to be the final airing out process
2011-03-25 16:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we can then begin to build a new advancing price structure to the upside with ample liquidity in the system to support it
2011-03-25 17:00:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waiting for Sam...did you have a question or comment?
2011-03-25 17:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will then move on
2011-03-25 17:01:06 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: small mco changes on a number of the US indices (and FTSE over here)
2011-03-25 17:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm looking forward to the FTSE data this weekend
2011-03-25 17:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the global markets...FTSE, DAX and AUSSIE indices all had technical breakdowns last week
2011-03-25 17:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: curious to see how much they were able to recover
2011-03-25 17:02:35 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: FTSE MCSUM at -651
2011-03-25 17:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a bad week for the FTSE during the Japanese crisis
2011-03-25 17:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only topped by Australia
2011-03-25 17:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's in deep dodo
2011-03-25 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will have to loosen up monetary policy very quickly or that market is going to trend lower for some time
2011-03-25 17:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I should have the global charts up by Sunday morning
2011-03-25 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other chart of focus remains with the Bond's
2011-03-25 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it shows higher highs, I wouldn't be at all worried about US equities
2011-03-25 17:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that any retracement from here would be at wholesale pricing
2011-03-25 17:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2011-03-25 17:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's still frothy
2011-03-25 17:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the second day of a price top forecast from yesterday coming on Monday
2011-03-25 17:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now very "overbought"
2011-03-25 17:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why we probably had range closes on several of the charts
2011-03-25 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are still very soft here and not suggesting any kind of continuation to this weeks relief rally
2011-03-25 17:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .99
2011-03-25 17:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.13
2011-03-25 17:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that favors a little more rally maybe at the open on Monday
2011-03-25 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .98
2011-03-25 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.04
2011-03-25 17:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that favors a neutral reading here
2011-03-25 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.03
2011-03-25 17:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.09
2011-03-25 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while were on the TRIN chart
2011-03-25 17:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a look at the 3 year price chart shown
2011-03-25 17:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll see something that would be deemed as a natural tendency
2011-03-25 17:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be that we are probably just in the process of snapping back to what were the old highs that saw in April of last year
2011-03-25 17:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2011-03-25 17:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're doing this after bumping our heads at the overhead resistance shown in the summer of 2008
2011-03-25 17:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THAT could be our larger range here IF we don't move lower and generate clean divergence
2011-03-25 17:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a larger pause to refresh if you will
2011-03-25 17:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the TM chart...13,000 is support
2011-03-25 17:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the NASDAQ - 2500
2011-03-25 17:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was also the downside objective given by the MCO last week
2011-03-25 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 7750 on the NYA
2011-03-25 17:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for intermediate trend traders
2011-03-25 17:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend is still up
2011-03-25 17:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the short term traders
2011-03-25 17:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are consolidating
2011-03-25 17:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where the use of the MCO during such times will tend to keep you from making a mistake
2011-03-25 17:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it moves to "overbought" (as it is now) you look to short
2011-03-25 17:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it breaks above this same resistance, then you double up going long
2011-03-25 17:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice easy plan
2011-03-25 17:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OEX P/C ratio continues to be highly bullish
2011-03-25 17:15:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's something interesting - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/PVI.html
2011-03-25 17:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check out the number of call buyers in the last two days
2011-03-25 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact...over the last week
2011-03-25 17:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another reason not to get to enamored with the current rally
2011-03-25 17:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will do everything it can to fool the many
2011-03-25 17:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's not forget
2011-03-25 17:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not people buying that make prices go up
2011-03-25 17:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's prices going up that make people buy
2011-03-25 17:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least change their minds
2011-03-25 17:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-03-25 17:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being Friday, I'm going to leave it at that...unless there's anything else anyone want's to discuss...the floor is open
2011-03-25 17:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that next week we're back to our usual schedule of Tuesday and Thursday
2011-03-25 17:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Manuj and I are kicking things around on maybe changing the medium going forward...will let you know
2011-03-25 17:21:01 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: where do you see the "OEX P/C ratio continues to be highly bullish" ?
2011-03-25 17:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you see the OEX P/C ratio above 1.00 it's always been a sign of a bottom
2011-03-25 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when you get to 2.00...watch out
2011-03-25 17:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike what you may have been reading by others, these are highly bullish numbers
2011-03-25 17:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the chart kind of says it all if you compare previous low points
2011-03-25 17:22:54 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Would you not expect them to be bearish if we are going for a retest?
2011-03-25 17:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2011-03-25 17:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the old days
2011-03-25 17:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX P/C ratio was a sign of what the pros were thinking in the pits
2011-03-25 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when they get to extremes like this
2011-03-25 17:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's usually a sign that most, if not all, of the emotion of the moment is out
2011-03-25 17:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...again...it's a Elliott psychology thing
2011-03-25 17:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the willing sellers (the pros) sell on wave A
2011-03-25 17:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the unwilling sellers (the public) sell on wave C
2011-03-25 17:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but aside from that
2011-03-25 17:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: compare the points in which you see extreme lows in the OEX P/C ratio chart
2011-03-25 17:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then take your line of vision to the OEX price chart above
2011-03-25 17:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except for the crash of 2008
2011-03-25 17:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been a great indicator of calling a low
2011-03-25 17:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: recently
2011-03-25 17:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: end of November
2011-03-25 17:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: end of December as well
2011-03-25 17:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the beginning of March not so much
2011-03-25 17:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again we had things going on in the Middle East
2011-03-25 17:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even then
2011-03-25 17:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still were able to rally close to 30 OEX points in one week off these same high extremes in this indicator
2011-03-25 17:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a lot for the OEX
2011-03-25 17:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 5% - not bad
2011-03-25 17:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every time I see someone post how bearish these lows numbers are I just don't understand the concept
2011-03-25 17:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the P/C ratio is a sentiment indicator
2011-03-25 17:29:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more puts...the more the likely a reverse
2011-03-25 17:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the indicator was at .80, and the market was declining, THEN I would worry
2011-03-25 17:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you have to think if today's usage is the same as in the old days with all of the different hedging vehicles out there
2011-03-25 17:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be blunt
2011-03-25 17:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when one thing fails to live up to a interpretation, then another indicator is used to justify a bearish position
2011-03-25 17:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before it was the VIX
2011-03-25 17:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before that it was dollar weighted averages
2011-03-25 17:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears always look at the wrong thing
2011-03-25 17:31:50 [Message] tracca -> Chat: OEX P/C numbers bullish, MCSUM fishhooks + component to MCO divergences are bearish, hmm, what will the direction of the market be in the near term, I think....?
2011-03-25 17:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because they are so emotionally invested in making the market go lower
2011-03-25 17:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sideways
2011-03-25 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-03-25 17:32:08 [Message] tracca -> Chat: well said
2011-03-25 17:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a high level consolidation
2011-03-25 17:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where both sides tend to get battered and bruised
2011-03-25 17:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a pause to refresh
2011-03-25 17:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO under zero, and the MCSUM above zero, suggesting choppy behavior
2011-03-25 17:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like it told us when this whole thing started
2011-03-25 17:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-03-25 17:33:26 [Message] tracca -> Chat: it is not easy, is it?
2011-03-25 17:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always amazing what paths are taken to reach a goal, isn't it?
2011-03-25 17:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope, never easy
2011-03-25 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until the physics change
2011-03-25 17:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we chop
2011-03-25 17:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and chop
2011-03-25 17:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and chop
2011-03-25 17:34:14 [Message] tracca -> Chat: so, the next chop is downwards
2011-03-25 17:34:33 [Message] tracca -> Chat: which will be choppy too
2011-03-25 17:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely, since we are at the top of the trading range on the leaders (MID) - the odds are good
2011-03-25 17:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-03-25 17:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it's all to generate an emotional response to take you away from your hard earned cash
2011-03-25 17:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is evil
2011-03-25 17:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't like company
2011-03-25 17:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will do everything it can to keep you on the proverbial fence
2011-03-25 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep focused on what is truly important, and it becomes easier...but it's NEVER easy
2011-03-25 17:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-03-25 17:37:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lot of what we go over here is very much like the scene in the first Star Wars movie
2011-03-25 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when Luke is trying to use the force to fend off the laser attack with his blast shield lowered
2011-03-25 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he keeps saying it's impossible to do so
2011-03-25 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but Obi Won says that you must forget everything that you've learned...and let it come to you
2011-03-25 17:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what's important
2011-03-25 17:39:50 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you for another great session.
2011-03-25 17:40:04 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Good chat
2011-03-25 17:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I hope it helps in making you a better trader
2011-03-25 17:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2011-03-25 17:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a better technicians
2011-03-25 17:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that
2011-03-25 17:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-03-25 17:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-03-25 17:40:46 [Message] tracca -> Chat: you too
2011-03-25 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Tuesday
2011-03-25 17:40:51 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Have a good weekend, may the force be with you ......
2011-03-25 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-03-25 17:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also with you...


__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2018 Technical Watch