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Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-03-23 16:00:41 fib1618: good day
2016-03-23 16:00:46 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-03-23 16:02:14 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-03-23 16:05:36 fib1618: Let's get started then
2016-03-23 16:05:56 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO actually moved to lower lows today
2016-03-23 16:06:21 fib1618: and even moved back below its zero line for the first time since the second week of February
2016-03-23 16:06:41 fib1618: this would then indicate that the thrust engines have now shut down completely
2016-03-23 16:07:34 fib1618: and with it, the accelerated advancing price structure from the mid February lows
2016-03-23 16:07:55 fib1618: looking at the components
2016-03-23 16:08:04 fib1618: and we see that the 10% moved sharply lower today
2016-03-23 16:08:13 fib1618: and even produced a bearish crossover with the 5% Trend
2016-03-23 16:08:30 fib1618: but both remain above their zero lines
2016-03-23 16:08:54 fib1618: so we have our first real corrective sequence to work with since mid February
2016-03-23 16:09:35 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-03-23 16:09:42 fib1618: and here we also continued lower
2016-03-23 16:09:55 fib1618: and wound up just below the zero line with a -3 reading
2016-03-23 16:10:13 fib1618: sorry, -1
2016-03-23 16:10:24 fib1618: it was -3 on the traditional
2016-03-23 16:10:52 fib1618: with the 10% Trend snapping back to the 5% Trend
2016-03-23 16:11:24 fib1618: taken together then we should see a technical bounce as soon as Thursday
2016-03-23 16:11:43 fib1618: which was what we were looking for to probably take place yesterday
2016-03-23 16:12:08 fib1618: we also note that with this zero line snapback
2016-03-23 16:12:29 fib1618: the rising bottoms line from the January/February lows was violated today
2016-03-23 16:12:46 fib1618: so a snapback toward this line of previous support should be seen near term
2016-03-23 16:13:04 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-03-23 16:13:40 fib1618: and we note that this zero line snapback in the MCO has now shut down the advance at the +1000 level which is our longer term secondary fan formation line of resistance from 2012
2016-03-23 16:13:45 fib1618: so not too surprising
2016-03-23 16:14:13 fib1618: although it looked as though that we were likely to break though this level when we talked about it yesterday
2016-03-23 16:14:32 fib1618: guess the breakdown in the SPX was more important than what was noted
2016-03-23 16:15:00 fib1618: like the NYSE CO MCO
2016-03-23 16:15:10 fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCO moved down and through its zero line today
2016-03-23 16:15:24 fib1618: after snapping back toward the previous rising bottoms line last week
2016-03-23 16:16:19 fib1618: we also had a bearish crossover on the NASDAQ MCO components today
2016-03-23 16:17:10 fib1618: so things look correctional here as well
2016-03-23 16:17:39 fib1618: pretty much the same situation with the NDX breadth MCO and its components
2016-03-23 16:18:53 fib1618: which stalled the upside progress of the NDX breadth MCSUM at the +650 level
2016-03-23 16:21:00 fib1618: we see pretty much the same scenario with the SPX breadth MCO and its components
2016-03-23 16:21:05 fib1618: with a zero line snapback now complete
2016-03-23 16:21:35 fib1618: and resistance holding at just above the +1000 level
2016-03-23 16:21:50 fib1618: looks like a technical bounce is likely there near term
2016-03-23 16:22:07 fib1618: wow...same with the OEX breadth MCO
2016-03-23 16:22:21 fib1618: boy...this market sure is in sync right now
2016-03-23 16:23:11 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO wound up just 10 data points shy of snapping back to its zero line today
2016-03-23 16:23:35 fib1618: as the 10% remains on a crossover buy with the 5% component
2016-03-23 16:24:31 fib1618: like the SPX, the MID breadth MCO also moved back below its zero line today
2016-03-23 16:25:31 fib1618: as the MID breadth MCSUM is also finding some resistance at just above the +1000 level
2016-03-23 16:27:19 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO continued to follow through on its weakness from yesterday
2016-03-23 16:27:47 fib1618: and finished up today with a reading of -31
2016-03-23 16:28:10 fib1618: so we didn't quite make it to the +750 level there
2016-03-23 16:28:37 fib1618: as we finished today with a reading of +695
2016-03-23 16:28:58 fib1618: the 10% Trend here has now snapped back to its zero line
2016-03-23 16:30:42 fib1618: so a bounce here near term is indicated
2016-03-23 16:31:12 fib1618: with the SML MCO attempting to snapback up toward its zero line
2016-03-23 16:31:42 fib1618: and to make it unanimous, the TM breadth MCO also snapped back to its zero line today
2016-03-23 16:31:54 fib1618: coming in with a reading of -4
2016-03-23 16:32:03 fib1618: so a near term technical bounce would be expected there as well
2016-03-23 16:32:06 fib1618: so...
2016-03-23 16:32:29 fib1618: it looks like we may get the correction/pause we were hoping for yesterday
2016-03-23 16:32:57 fib1618: in the hope that we can relieve some of the "overbought" extremes that we've been noting over the last couple weeks
2016-03-23 16:33:16 fib1618: and from there a more important buy point in the pattern sometime in early April
2016-03-23 16:33:28 fib1618: moving to the sectors
2016-03-23 16:34:13 fib1618: and we first see something familiar as the XLY breadth MCSUM is finding natural resistance near the +1000 level
2016-03-23 16:35:00 fib1618: as the XLY breadth MCO moved down and through its zero line today to a -33 reading
2016-03-23 16:35:27 fib1618: we also had a bearish crossover in the XLY components
2016-03-23 16:35:36 fib1618: but both remain above their zero line for now
2016-03-23 16:36:00 fib1618: the upside price target was also met in the last couple of days at $78
2016-03-23 16:36:13 fib1618: and like we touched on yesterday
2016-03-23 16:36:26 fib1618: with so many price objectives met over the last couple of days
2016-03-23 16:36:38 fib1618: this would be a good time to take a pause and look around a bit
2016-03-23 16:37:24 fib1618: we see that we had a rally failure price bar today on the XLP chart
2016-03-23 16:37:57 fib1618: though the XLP breadth MCO did close higher today
2016-03-23 16:38:12 fib1618: the XLP components remain above their zero lines
2016-03-23 16:38:21 fib1618: so we have corrective activity going on there
2016-03-23 16:38:43 fib1618: and maybe rotation out of defensive issues as we thought might be the case yesterday
2016-03-23 16:39:02 fib1618: the big test will be with the XLU...we'll look at that in due time
2016-03-23 16:39:42 fib1618: we also see that we had a hard break in the uptrend in the XLE breadth MCO
2016-03-23 16:40:22 fib1618: as its moved from a reading of +101 to today's reading of -26 in 4 trading days (whew)
2016-03-23 16:40:35 fib1618: that's a whole lot of nervous sellers
2016-03-23 16:41:02 fib1618: and entitled to some sort of technical bounce near term
2016-03-23 16:41:38 fib1618: note also here that the XLE breadth MCSUM is also having troubles moving too much above the +1000 level
2016-03-23 16:42:00 fib1618: though it did get to +1100 yesterday
2016-03-23 16:42:32 fib1618: and that's about ...oh...2600 data points in the MCSUM which is a whole lot of progress
2016-03-23 16:42:43 fib1618: definitely time for a pause there
2016-03-23 16:43:25 fib1618: the XLF breadth MCO also moved into negative territory today
2016-03-23 16:43:45 fib1618: and with it the XLF breadth MCSUM could not move up and through the +750 level
2016-03-23 16:44:13 fib1618: still...that's about a 1900 data points in the MCSUM
2016-03-23 16:44:26 fib1618: so a rest there would be a reasonable expectation as well
2016-03-23 16:45:05 fib1618: snapback down to the zero line today in the XLV breadth MCO
2016-03-23 16:45:27 fib1618: as the there's been quite a bit of indecision in this basket of issues for a while now
2016-03-23 16:45:57 fib1618: we can see this in the lateral movement in the XLV breadth MCSUM over the last couple of weeks
2016-03-23 16:46:04 fib1618: nothing there to inspire
2016-03-23 16:46:33 fib1618: the XLI remains very strong here
2016-03-23 16:46:53 fib1618: as the XLI breadth MCO is still above its zero line
2016-03-23 16:47:11 fib1618: while the XLI breadth MCSUM has moved up and through the +1250 level today
2016-03-23 16:47:30 fib1618: snapback of the 10% component to the 5% component as well
2016-03-23 16:47:41 fib1618: so, here too, a near term bounce is indicated on Thursday
2016-03-23 16:48:19 fib1618: we'll call this part of a snapback to or toward the old highs on the price chart at $55
2016-03-23 16:48:43 fib1618: snapback to the zero line as well on the XLB breadth MCO
2016-03-23 16:49:08 fib1618: as the XLB breadth MCSUM attacks natural resistance at the +1250 level
2016-03-23 16:49:39 fib1618: looks like +1250 resistance as well on the XLK breadth MCSUM
2016-03-23 16:50:07 fib1618: with the components remaining in a positive crossover configuration
2016-03-23 16:50:33 fib1618: same song in many of the charts tonight...just slightly different octaves
2016-03-23 16:51:05 fib1618: and there's no real stopping the XLU breadth MCO and MCSUM
2016-03-23 16:51:33 fib1618: as we got a bounce off the zero line today in the MCO up to the +23 level
2016-03-23 16:51:59 fib1618: while the XLU breadth MCSUM is now less than 100 data points away from the +2500 level
2016-03-23 16:52:02 fib1618: amazing
2016-03-23 16:52:25 fib1618: would appear that yesterday's rotation turned more into a profit taking session today
2016-03-23 16:52:58 fib1618: with the back drop of more bombings in what used to a continent of countries has turned into one big mess
2016-03-23 16:53:25 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's fared
2016-03-23 16:54:40 fib1618: we first see that the SPX, OEX and Dow CVI's all broke below their series of rising bottoms today
2016-03-23 16:54:59 fib1618: and this would re-enforce the idea of a complete engine shut down taking place
2016-03-23 16:55:36 fib1618: with the STVO's and VTO's continuing to show "overbought" conditions in the market
2016-03-23 16:55:58 fib1618: ideally we would like to see the CVI and STVO go back to "oversold" during this sequence
2016-03-23 16:56:26 fib1618: while the VTO's move back to their zero lines for a possible buy point in early April
2016-03-23 16:56:43 fib1618: ha!
2016-03-23 16:56:49 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 2.08
2016-03-23 16:56:51 fib1618: buy signal there as we had too much selling too soon
2016-03-23 16:57:08 fib1618: though the Open 10 is at 1.01
2016-03-23 16:57:39 fib1618: this kind of fits with the profit taking idea...but not a buy point
2016-03-23 16:57:50 fib1618: ouch
2016-03-23 16:58:04 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .76
2016-03-23 16:58:08 fib1618: Open 10 at .83
2016-03-23 16:58:19 fib1618: still close to being "overbought"
2016-03-23 16:58:25 fib1618: we're going to need to work that off
2016-03-23 16:58:40 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.14
2016-03-23 16:58:55 fib1618: Open 10 at .92 and neutral
2016-03-23 16:58:57 fib1618: so...
2016-03-23 16:59:13 fib1618: looks like a technical bounce going into the 3 day holiday weekend
2016-03-23 16:59:30 fib1618: and then we'll likely see a continuation of this corrective sequence next week
2016-03-23 16:59:32 fib1618: which means
2016-03-23 16:59:58 fib1618: we might pause into the Job's number
2016-03-23 17:00:02 fib1618: is it on the 1st?
2016-03-23 17:00:04 fib1618: let me check
2016-03-23 17:00:41 fib1618: yep
2016-03-23 17:00:48 mojave: earnings season kick-off in couple wks
2016-03-23 17:00:54 fib1618: its jobs week next week...ADP on Wednesday
2016-03-23 17:01:00 mojave: "quiet period" now
2016-03-23 17:01:06 fib1618: usually the 2nd week of April on the earnings
2016-03-23 17:01:23 fib1618: not a bad time to even up going into the holiday
2016-03-23 17:01:45 fib1618: and as the dust settles overseas, this makes good sense
2016-03-23 17:02:20 fib1618: all we really want is to work off the high buy side imbalance for a better entry point
2016-03-23 17:02:48 fib1618: let me take a look around the globe and see how we're doing
2016-03-23 17:03:33 fib1618: Australia is looking snapping back to its EMA's
2016-03-23 17:03:47 fib1618: same with Austria
2016-03-23 17:04:06 fib1618: Belgium
2016-03-23 17:04:20 fib1618: Brazil...Canada
2016-03-23 17:04:24 fib1618: seems to be a theme here
2016-03-23 17:04:49 fib1618: France is still below its 200 day EMA
2016-03-23 17:05:01 fib1618: as is Germany
2016-03-23 17:05:20 fib1618: Hong Kong as well
2016-03-23 17:05:24 fib1618: Italy is weak
2016-03-23 17:05:51 fib1618: Malaysia and Mexico look firm
2016-03-23 17:05:58 mojave: none of them bounced out of Feb like USA
2016-03-23 17:06:08 fib1618: Netherlands and Singapore
2016-03-23 17:06:12 fib1618: nope
2016-03-23 17:06:21 fib1618: but their structures are solid to the upside in several cases
2016-03-23 17:06:27 fib1618: good EMA play too
2016-03-23 17:06:46 fib1618: South Africa at 200 day EMA resistance
2016-03-23 17:07:11 fib1618: so is Sweden
2016-03-23 17:07:18 fib1618: though South Korea is doing fine
2016-03-23 17:07:39 fib1618: as is Taiwan
2016-03-23 17:07:47 fib1618: seems 1/2 of Europe is firm
2016-03-23 17:08:01 fib1618: while the other half, the majors, are struggling a bit
2016-03-23 17:08:46 fib1618: the exchange issues are firm with the exception of ICE
2016-03-23 17:09:05 mojave: wondering if $USD bounce causing concern again
2016-03-23 17:09:21 fib1618: only if its rallying...let me look
2016-03-23 17:09:43 fib1618: pattern remains weak
2016-03-23 17:10:03 fib1618: now snapping back up to its 20 and 200 day EMA's
2016-03-23 17:10:14 fib1618: close to a bearish configuration now
2016-03-23 17:10:41 fib1618: biotech is weak
2016-03-23 17:10:48 fib1618: so much for my theory yesterday
2016-03-23 17:11:08 fib1618: CRB got hit today
2016-03-23 17:11:14 fib1618: looks like a technical snapback
2016-03-23 17:11:43 fib1618: dividend stocks are still hot, hot, hot
2016-03-23 17:12:08 fib1618: as the XLI was indicating
2016-03-23 17:12:14 fib1618: the Transports continue to get stronger
2016-03-23 17:12:24 mojave: was thinking same w/ XLU
2016-03-23 17:12:46 fib1618: all time highs there
2016-03-23 17:13:08 fib1618: energy got slapped around today
2016-03-23 17:13:17 fib1618: not surprising after the first attempt to stabilize off the lows
2016-03-23 17:13:30 fib1618: natural gas remains ugly
2016-03-23 17:13:44 fib1618: you know
2016-03-23 17:13:49 fib1618: UNG is so cheap here
2016-03-23 17:13:56 fib1618: why not accumulate it?
2016-03-23 17:14:04 fib1618: let me see the longer term chart
2016-03-23 17:14:40 fib1618: near all time lows
2016-03-23 17:15:06 fib1618: problem is
2016-03-23 17:15:09 fib1618: no dividend
2016-03-23 17:15:18 mojave: I'd have to review it - tied to futures? or spot
2016-03-23 17:15:24 fib1618: might be
2016-03-23 17:15:52 fib1618: if there were a dividend...I is needed
2016-03-23 17:16:00 mojave: ahh, futures
2016-03-23 17:16:12 mojave: so I believe you're screwed on contango
2016-03-23 17:16:18 fib1618: might as well trash electric and run on natural gas cars
2016-03-23 17:16:22 fib1618: maybe
2016-03-23 17:16:28 fib1618: good point
2016-03-23 17:16:31 fib1618: have to look later
2016-03-23 17:17:29 mojave: I've studied FCG - etf ng stocks
2016-03-23 17:17:36 mojave: has dividend
2016-03-23 17:17:38 fib1618: heath care drugs are weak
2016-03-23 17:17:43 fib1618: let me check
2016-03-23 17:18:01 fib1618: nice
2016-03-23 17:18:08 fib1618: 6.38%
2016-03-23 17:18:10 mojave: best bet imo
2016-03-23 17:18:19 fib1618: I'll take your advice [smile]
2016-03-23 17:19:02 mojave: well... check the stocks included first :blush:
2016-03-23 17:19:20 fib1618: chart pattern is sucky though
2016-03-23 17:19:29 fib1618: but, it's so cheap
2016-03-23 17:19:44 fib1618: and who's thinking about this in the spring?
2016-03-23 17:19:54 fib1618: maybe a couple of months of watching though
2016-03-23 17:20:04 fib1618: could be a good core for an IRA
2016-03-23 17:20:15 mojave: appears to track $natgas well -
2016-03-23 17:20:33 fib1618: thank you sir
2016-03-23 17:21:00 mojave: nicely balanced holdings, top 10 all <5% weighting
2016-03-23 17:21:06 mojave: *not advice*
2016-03-23 17:21:07 fib1618: love the SOB pattern on the longer term chart
2016-03-23 17:21:23 fib1618: yes, not advice...just sharing ideas
2016-03-23 17:22:02 fib1618: home construction a bit firmer than home builders
2016-03-23 17:22:09 fib1618: that's a short term positive
2016-03-23 17:22:15 fib1618: and we're going into peak season now
2016-03-23 17:22:20 fib1618: low rates
2016-03-23 17:22:34 fib1618: NYSE REIT A/D line breakout
2016-03-23 17:22:44 fib1618: something to watch
2016-03-23 17:23:41 fib1618: beautiful structural bullish pattern in the XME...Miners and Mining
2016-03-23 17:24:41 fib1618: and retail is surprisingly firm
2016-03-23 17:25:47 fib1618: uptrend is strong in T
2016-03-23 17:26:02 fib1618: insurance stocks doing well
2016-03-23 17:26:19 fib1618: bank stocks look blah
2016-03-23 17:26:45 fib1618: wow...big move in FDX last Thursday
2016-03-23 17:26:54 fib1618: no wonder the TRAN moved up above the 200 day EMA
2016-03-23 17:27:29 fib1618: up 11.83%
2016-03-23 17:27:56 fib1618: on HUGE (my best Trump imitation there) volume
2016-03-23 17:28:43 fib1618: and VISA and MASTERCARD still showing no action here
2016-03-23 17:28:54 fib1618: so why is retail so firm here?
2016-03-23 17:28:59 fib1618: confusing
2016-03-23 17:29:05 fib1618: and that's about it
2016-03-23 17:29:08 fib1618: anything else?
2016-03-23 17:29:34 mojave: nah
2016-03-23 17:30:08 fib1618: good time for a break
2016-03-23 17:30:25 fib1618: let me check the BETS and we'll call it a week
2016-03-23 17:30:57 mojave: back to neutral I'm guessing...
2016-03-23 17:31:18 fib1618: +20
2016-03-23 17:31:24 fib1618: still neutral
2016-03-23 17:32:05 fib1618: I would be kind of surprised if we went to an accumulation signal at this stage...we need a rest before we do
2016-03-23 17:32:33 fib1618: maybe around the 13th for a buy?
2016-03-23 17:32:38 fib1618: <shrug>
2016-03-23 17:32:55 fib1618: we'll see how it goes
2016-03-23 17:33:01 fib1618: I'm not in no rush
2016-03-23 17:33:16 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-03-23 17:33:19 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-03-23 17:33:24 fib1618: everyone have a great holiday
2016-03-23 17:33:29 fib1618: and we'll do this again next Tuesday
2016-03-23 17:33:31 fib1618: good night
2016-03-23 17:33:31 mojave: tks, you too

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