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Posts: 5,013
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-03-22 16:00:18 fib1618: good day
2016-03-22 16:00:22 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-03-22 16:00:27 mojave: good here
2016-03-22 16:00:51 mojave: been a while, appreciate the transcripts!
2016-03-22 16:01:07 fib1618: hey have you been?
2016-03-22 16:01:33 mojave: all good
2016-03-22 16:02:48 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-03-22 16:06:17 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-03-22 16:07:04 fib1618: after moving higher to a reading of +63 late last week
2016-03-22 16:07:14 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has since moved lower
2016-03-22 16:07:34 fib1618: and now is at natural support with a reading of +25
2016-03-22 16:07:47 fib1618: looking at the CO components
2016-03-22 16:07:57 fib1618: and they remain nicely elevated between each other
2016-03-22 16:08:14 fib1618: which might mean that we will initially find support on Wednesday
2016-03-22 16:08:58 fib1618: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM now has a reading of +846
2016-03-22 16:09:20 fib1618: as it continues moving up toward its next resistance area of +1000
2016-03-22 16:09:40 fib1618: moving back to the MCO for a moment
2016-03-22 16:10:15 fib1618: and we see that we didn't take out the reaction highs noted last week as being important in allowing the NYA price pattern to challenge its all time highs
2016-03-22 16:10:48 fib1618: so with our upside targets already realized last week
2016-03-22 16:11:19 fib1618: we shouldn't do too much better than 10,600 on this current rally sequence
2016-03-22 16:11:48 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-03-22 16:12:02 fib1618: and here we see the same resistance from last week holding here as well
2016-03-22 16:12:17 fib1618: though the pullback, so far, has been shallower than the CO MCO
2016-03-22 16:12:41 fib1618: this then instructs us that the interest rate sensitive issues continue to be bought here over the commons
2016-03-22 16:13:02 fib1618: and this should help prices from selling off in any important way for the time being
2016-03-22 16:13:29 fib1618: and where intraday declines are pretty much all the sellers can do at this time
2016-03-22 16:13:46 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite components
2016-03-22 16:14:00 fib1618: and here too we see a wide gap between the amplitudes of both Trends
2016-03-22 16:14:22 fib1618: and this would, again, keep prices buoyant
2016-03-22 16:14:35 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-03-22 16:14:51 fib1618: and we are now at the +1000 level with a reading of +996
2016-03-22 16:14:57 fib1618: and as mentioned over the weekend
2016-03-22 16:15:32 fib1618: this area is where the second fan formation declining tops line intersects from the 2012 MCSUM highs
2016-03-22 16:15:46 fib1618: with the components showing little in the way of decay right now
2016-03-22 16:16:16 fib1618: the reasonable expectation is for the NYSE MCSUM to break above this formidable line of resistance without too much of a problem
2016-03-22 16:16:49 fib1618: and that would only leave the primary declining tops line from the 2009 MCSUM highs to challenge at around +1100
2016-03-22 16:17:27 fib1618: with a break above that, and we'll have a re-initiation confirmation of the longer term bull market price pattern structure from the 2009 lows
2016-03-22 16:17:40 fib1618: though...there are problems here and there
2016-03-22 16:18:04 fib1618: but we'll touch on those areas as we move along
2016-03-22 16:18:23 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-03-22 16:18:35 fib1618: and it remains pretty much in sync with the NYSE data
2016-03-22 16:18:43 fib1618: settling today with a +28 reading
2016-03-22 16:18:58 fib1618: here too the components look good
2016-03-22 16:19:22 fib1618: while the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now in its second day above the important +250 level
2016-03-22 16:19:28 fib1618: so now that we've cleared that
2016-03-22 16:19:35 fib1618: we should be good to go to the +500 level
2016-03-22 16:20:48 fib1618: with today's price range indicating that there is a nice amount of underlying strength now coming into the pattern overall as it probed below yesterday's intraday lows and then closed nicely above Monday's total range
2016-03-22 16:21:47 fib1618: we'll also now call the upside price target from several weeks ago (4850) near completion as well
2016-03-22 16:22:18 fib1618: this index is going to be the "acid test" for the market now
2016-03-22 16:22:52 fib1618: so let's keep a more watchful eye on how it proceeds from this juncture as to ascertain the market's true health and strength
2016-03-22 16:23:32 fib1618: we continue to see ongoing disappointment with the NDX breadth MCO
2016-03-22 16:23:42 fib1618: as it again could not move above the +52 level
2016-03-22 16:23:56 fib1618: leaving behind a small double top formation
2016-03-22 16:24:11 fib1618: however
2016-03-22 16:24:24 fib1618: the components remain buoyant
2016-03-22 16:24:36 fib1618: while the NDX breadth MCSUM has now cleared above the +500 level
2016-03-22 16:25:11 fib1618: putting ruler to monitor
2016-03-22 16:25:42 fib1618: and the rising bottoms line that can be connected between the January and February lows remains intact
2016-03-22 16:25:52 fib1618: and until this is broken
2016-03-22 16:26:06 fib1618: we'll continue to give the benefit of any doubt to the buyers
2016-03-22 16:26:31 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2016-03-22 16:27:03 fib1618: and here we have our first bearish indication that we might be running out of fuel here to maintain the current pace to the upside
2016-03-22 16:27:09 fib1618: as this MCO moved to a lower low today
2016-03-22 16:27:21 fib1618: but by only a point
2016-03-22 16:27:38 fib1618: still...that continues the bearish theme of tops beneath tops in the structure
2016-03-22 16:28:12 fib1618: and that would suggest that we'll continue maintain ongoing bearish divergences between price and this MCO
2016-03-22 16:28:54 fib1618: still...the distance between the SPX MCO components remains nicely positive
2016-03-22 16:29:21 fib1618: so it could be one of those deceleration days as we move above the +1000 level
2016-03-22 16:30:49 fib1618: and if that's the case
2016-03-22 16:30:57 fib1618: we should pick up steam again to the upside by Thursday
2016-03-22 16:31:45 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCSUM is now at its next upside target of +754
2016-03-22 16:32:07 fib1618: so any follow through on that in the next day or so will help hold the SPX breadth MCO above its zero line
2016-03-22 16:32:40 fib1618: on the flip side though
2016-03-22 16:33:09 fib1618: as with the SPX meeting its price objective, the OEX price objective given several weeks ago has also been met
2016-03-22 16:33:30 fib1618: and the reason this is important is that it might be a good time to take an extended pause here
2016-03-22 16:33:44 fib1618: and a pause is likely to push the MCO's to zero to balance things off
2016-03-22 16:33:49 fib1618: that said
2016-03-22 16:34:16 fib1618: the components so far are indicating that we still have some unfinished business here
2016-03-22 16:34:34 fib1618: and given the way the market absorbed the bombings in Belgium today
2016-03-22 16:35:11 fib1618: further instructs us that we have ample amounts of liquidity to absorb any negative surprises for the time being
2016-03-22 16:35:43 fib1618: which also means that any directional surprises will remain to the upside for now and that it will take some time to chip away at this strength to turn things around
2016-03-22 16:35:46 fib1618: speaking of which
2016-03-22 16:36:24 fib1618: ISEE came in with a reading of 54 today
2016-03-22 16:36:39 fib1618: so the put buyers were confident that there would be a decline from the news story
2016-03-22 16:37:07 fib1618: only to be disappointed when the day was through
2016-03-22 16:37:31 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO remains very strong right now
2016-03-22 16:37:52 fib1618: with a reading of +40 after peaking last week at +78
2016-03-22 16:38:22 fib1618: Dow components here remain elevated as well
2016-03-22 16:38:51 fib1618: with the Dow breadth MCSUM moving ever higher with a reading now at +868
2016-03-22 16:39:29 fib1618: looks like we'll likely see 17,800 on the Dow very soon
2016-03-22 16:40:02 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO also pulled back over the last couple of days
2016-03-22 16:40:13 fib1618: but remains in a rising configuration
2016-03-22 16:40:35 fib1618: the MID breadth MCSUM is now at +1047
2016-03-22 16:40:58 fib1618: so a move to +1250 looks doable there
2016-03-22 16:41:49 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO is now back to a reading of +16 after peaking out last week at +56
2016-03-22 16:43:05 fib1618: and the 10% Trend here has snapped back enough now toward the 5% Trend where a bounce may be seen by Thursday
2016-03-22 16:43:41 fib1618: we'll watch the SML breadth MCSUM here as it approaches its next upside technical target of +750
2016-03-22 16:44:08 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO remains in pretty good shape
2016-03-22 16:44:21 fib1618: pulling back today to a +30
2016-03-22 16:44:50 fib1618: and with the TM MCO components also at an elevated state
2016-03-22 16:45:07 fib1618: this should continue to absorb any problems that might come along for the rest of the week
2016-03-22 16:45:09 fib1618: so...
2016-03-22 16:45:21 fib1618: we remain in a strong uptrend
2016-03-22 16:46:05 fib1618: and strong enough to where geopolitical surprises are easier to absorb than they would be if the MCSUM's were below their +500 levels
2016-03-22 16:46:33 fib1618: with another good upside thrust in the MCO's
2016-03-22 16:47:12 fib1618: allowing prices to really sink their collective teeth into the price highs we saw back before we saw the market collapse after the 1st of the year
2016-03-22 16:47:32 fib1618: eyeballing here
2016-03-22 16:47:39 fib1618: it now looks like we're up for the year
2016-03-22 16:48:00 fib1618: who would had guessed that would happen a month ago?
2016-03-22 16:48:04 fib1618: not be sure
2016-03-22 16:48:11 fib1618: moving to the volume McClellan's
2016-03-22 16:48:17 mojave: helluva thrust
2016-03-22 16:48:38 fib1618: and a divergent one at that
2016-03-22 16:48:51 fib1618: teaching us once again that this stuff does work
2016-03-22 16:49:22 fib1618: just sometimes it's just not as clean and all encompassing as we would like it
2016-03-22 16:49:30 fib1618: that's why it's far better to take it day by day
2016-03-22 16:50:09 fib1618: both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's remain above their lows of last week
2016-03-22 16:50:28 fib1618: though the Composite is showing just a wee bit more selling plurality over the last few days
2016-03-22 16:50:37 fib1618: could be quad witch inspired
2016-03-22 16:50:51 fib1618: won't know for sure for another day or so as things settle
2016-03-22 16:51:29 fib1618: the NYSE volume Components also like a bit weaker than their breadth cousins
2016-03-22 16:51:57 fib1618: which, again, could be OPEX related due to the heavier weighted issues on the major averages
2016-03-22 16:52:13 fib1618: and with that thought in mind
2016-03-22 16:52:24 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO reaffirms this idea
2016-03-22 16:52:33 fib1618: as it remains nicely above its zero line
2016-03-22 16:52:39 fib1618: with only a small point change today
2016-03-22 16:52:56 fib1618: as we touched on earlier
2016-03-22 16:53:05 fib1618: this is now the index to watch for guidance over the next several days
2016-03-22 16:53:43 fib1618: as up volume is showing leadership for prices to continue in this same direction
2016-03-22 16:53:59 fib1618: and the broader the issues that become involved
2016-03-22 16:54:27 fib1618: the easier it will be for the secondaries to show sharper gains as it plays this technical game of "catch up" to the primary issues
2016-03-22 16:54:53 fib1618: strong strength continues as well in the NDX volume MCO
2016-03-22 16:55:10 fib1618: and that's pretty bullish given what we've just talked about
2016-03-22 16:55:52 fib1618: you can see the strong underlying tone with the volume MCSUM's for both the NASDAQ and NDX
2016-03-22 16:56:31 fib1618: now if the NDX volume MCSUM can take out its November highs.... [smile]
2016-03-22 16:56:54 fib1618: like its breadth cousin, the SPX volume MCO also moved to a lower low today
2016-03-22 16:57:14 fib1618: in fact
2016-03-22 16:57:29 fib1618: the data here between SPX breadth and volume are almost identical
2016-03-22 16:57:39 fib1618: something that is part and parcel of price trends
2016-03-22 16:57:47 fib1618: so we have that confirmation there
2016-03-22 16:58:33 fib1618: the OEX volume MCO is giving a text book example of a "complex bullish structure"
2016-03-22 16:58:49 fib1618: as it meanders sideways above the +40 level
2016-03-22 16:58:56 fib1618: the exciting part though
2016-03-22 16:59:22 fib1618: is that the OEX volume MCSUM is now about to move above the +500 level with a reading of +468
2016-03-22 16:59:28 fib1618: and if this is accomplished
2016-03-22 17:00:09 fib1618: then we're likely to see the top 100 issues in the SPX take a more weighted role in the current uptrend
2016-03-22 17:00:45 fib1618: the Dow volume MCO remains nicely above its zero line
2016-03-22 17:00:58 fib1618: not a lot of weakness here to talk about
2016-03-22 17:01:03 fib1618: more like we're rotating
2016-03-22 17:01:19 fib1618: it's always funny
2016-03-22 17:01:35 fib1618: once I say something like there's nothing to talk about
2016-03-22 17:01:40 fib1618: something pops up
2016-03-22 17:01:50 fib1618: and this time we're looking at the MID volume MCO
2016-03-22 17:02:05 fib1618: that has joined the SPX volume MCO to a bottom below a bottom formation
2016-03-22 17:02:51 fib1618: but given that the MID volume MCSUM is at the +921 level
2016-03-22 17:03:17 fib1618: there's probably some fuel left in the tank to keep us pushing forward
2016-03-22 17:03:37 fib1618: looking at the MID price chart on the yearly
2016-03-22 17:03:46 fib1618: and you can see the stair stepping that's going on now
2016-03-22 17:04:11 fib1618: given that we cleared out the stops below current levels in the MID
2016-03-22 17:04:21 fib1618: we're likely to see another "step up" on Wednesday
2016-03-22 17:04:49 fib1618: like its breadth cousin, the SML volume MCO is also showing a reading in the mid teens
2016-03-22 17:05:12 fib1618: the market is really in sync here
2016-03-22 17:05:36 fib1618: just a matter of where money believes value lies
2016-03-22 17:06:07 fib1618: I have to keep rechecking that I'm looking at the volume data
2016-03-22 17:06:29 fib1618: because the numbers and pattern are similar to breadth
2016-03-22 17:06:30 mojave: yeah I got 'em side by side...
2016-03-22 17:06:31 fib1618: anyway
2016-03-22 17:06:46 fib1618: they're like twins
2016-03-22 17:07:03 mojave: volume looks good, unlike much of last yr or so
2016-03-22 17:07:09 fib1618: well...
2016-03-22 17:07:12 fib1618: as we know
2016-03-22 17:07:25 fib1618: without volume leading or keeping pace with breadth
2016-03-22 17:07:29 fib1618: it's very difficult to trend
2016-03-22 17:07:36 fib1618: and we have that now
2016-03-22 17:07:41 fib1618: and because of this
2016-03-22 17:07:55 fib1618: people are likely to be surprised on how long this thing might run
2016-03-22 17:08:09 fib1618: look at ISEE today
2016-03-22 17:08:35 fib1618: the speculators were just chomping at the bit for anything negative to throw their money at the market
2016-03-22 17:08:56 fib1618: <shrug>
2016-03-22 17:08:58 fib1618: so...
2016-03-22 17:09:13 fib1618: things continue to look pretty good here
2016-03-22 17:09:29 fib1618: with nothing really suggesting that we're close to a turning point
2016-03-22 17:09:33 fib1618: heck
2016-03-22 17:09:44 fib1618: we haven't seen the MCO move back to their zero lines most cases
2016-03-22 17:09:49 fib1618: and until this happens
2016-03-22 17:09:57 fib1618: the path of least resistance remains with the buyers
2016-03-22 17:10:38 fib1618: we'll call the CVI almost neutral
2016-03-22 17:10:43 fib1618: but still with a bit of vigor
2016-03-22 17:10:59 fib1618: the STVO's and VTO's remain at "overbought" levels
2016-03-22 17:11:06 fib1618: but not so bad to where we're overheating
2016-03-22 17:11:40 fib1618: as mentioned earlier
2016-03-22 17:11:50 fib1618: this seems like a juncture were money is rotating
2016-03-22 17:12:15 fib1618: as it would be during the initial phases of a ascending price sequence
2016-03-22 17:13:01 fib1618: when money starts to move out of defensive issues like Consumer Staples and Utilities and into more aggressive areas
2016-03-22 17:13:26 fib1618: tech...drugs...this kind of thing
2016-03-22 17:13:30 fib1618: if this is the case
2016-03-22 17:13:48 fib1618: we should see this in the NDX and NASDAQ over the next few days
2016-03-22 17:14:09 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.31
2016-03-22 17:14:13 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.02
2016-03-22 17:14:24 fib1618: so minimally "oversold" there
2016-03-22 17:14:40 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .75
2016-03-22 17:14:52 fib1618: Open 10 at .84
2016-03-22 17:15:01 fib1618: and climbing fast
2016-03-22 17:15:11 fib1618: money moving from value to growth it would seem
2016-03-22 17:15:23 fib1618: TM TRIN at .90
2016-03-22 17:15:32 fib1618: Open 10 at .93
2016-03-22 17:15:42 fib1618: so we'll call that neutral overall
2016-03-22 17:15:44 fib1618: so...
2016-03-22 17:15:48 fib1618: steady as she goes
2016-03-22 17:16:10 fib1618: and it doesn't look like we're going to get much in the way of pullbacks here
2016-03-22 17:16:15 fib1618: so if we get anything
2016-03-22 17:16:25 fib1618: it will be a correction of time more than that of price (on the fly)
2016-03-22 17:16:40 fib1618: but for now, the buyers remain in solid control
2016-03-22 17:16:53 fib1618: we'll see how they do.
2016-03-22 17:16:58 fib1618: checking the BETS
2016-03-22 17:18:17 fib1618: AMUD getting close now to going bullish
2016-03-22 17:19:01 fib1618: +25
2016-03-22 17:19:04 fib1618: let me count again
2016-03-22 17:20:24 fib1618: sorry...+20
2016-03-22 17:20:30 fib1618: and the AMUD data from Friday was evidently wrong
2016-03-22 17:20:47 fib1618: so we could have an accumulation signal as soon as this week
2016-03-22 17:21:03 fib1618: OK...anything else?
2016-03-22 17:21:37 mojave: nope
2016-03-22 17:21:43 mojave: good stuff
2016-03-22 17:22:02 fib1618: at this point
2016-03-22 17:22:11 fib1618: we let "nature take its course"
2016-03-22 17:22:22 fib1618: and we'll ride this out until there is no more ride [smile]
2016-03-22 17:22:39 fib1618: oh...before I forget
2016-03-22 17:23:04 fib1618: because of the holiday shortened week, remember that we have our next chat tomorrow, Wednesday
2016-03-22 17:23:37 fib1618: and then we're back to our usual Tuesday/Thursday next week
2016-03-22 17:24:14 fib1618: futures are flat
2016-03-22 17:24:53 fib1618: so the market's are likely to take their cues from how Europe responds in the morning
2016-03-22 17:25:15 mojave: re-reading some initiation thrust/spike stuff from a while back...
2016-03-22 17:25:23 fib1618: yes sir
2016-03-22 17:25:30 mojave: notice Tom Mc wrote a piece on it 10 Mar
2016-03-22 17:25:54 mojave:
2016-03-22 17:26:06 mojave: for anyone who's interested
2016-03-22 17:26:36 mojave: plus stuff in TW forums
2016-03-22 17:26:39 fib1618: thanks for sharing...I'll have to read it in the morning
2016-03-22 17:26:55 fib1618: well..hopefully it's making you money
2016-03-22 17:27:02 fib1618: if not keeping what you have [smile]
2016-03-22 17:27:31 mojave: love your work Dave!  beautiful bottom mid-Feb, everything came together nicely
2016-03-22 17:27:53 fib1618: hey...I am just a mere conduit...a slave to the market [wink]
2016-03-22 17:28:21 mojave: thanks for your efforts here
2016-03-22 17:28:41 fib1618: thank you...
2016-03-22 17:28:52 fib1618: we're all in this together
2016-03-22 17:29:05 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-03-22 17:29:08 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-03-22 17:29:13 fib1618: everyone have a great evening
2016-03-22 17:29:28 mojave: you too
2016-03-22 17:29:29 fib1618: and we'll do this all again in less than 22 hours
2016-03-22 17:29:31 fib1618: good night

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