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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,454
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-03-17 16:00:02 fib1618: good day
2016-03-17 16:00:06 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-03-17 16:03:54 thespookyone: Very well, thx, and you?
2016-03-17 16:04:07 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-03-17 16:04:22 thespookyone: Traders market, loving it [smile]
2016-03-17 16:06:33 fib1618: hehe
2016-03-17 16:06:42 fib1618: I heard where we closed today on the Dow
2016-03-17 16:06:50 fib1618: so both upside targets have now been met...or nearly so
2016-03-17 16:08:04 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-03-17 16:08:46 fib1618: after finding expected support from Tuesday lows
2016-03-17 16:08:57 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continued higher today
2016-03-17 16:09:27 fib1618: which wasn't the expectation from Tuesday
2016-03-17 16:09:44 fib1618: and this tells us that something else might be going on now that needs our attention
2016-03-17 16:09:51 fib1618: the expectation was for a bounce on Wednesday
2016-03-17 16:09:57 fib1618: but then moving lower into OPEX
2016-03-17 16:10:18 fib1618: with the CO moving easily back to the +63 level
2016-03-17 16:10:35 fib1618: it might be that we're getting a double pump thrust
2016-03-17 16:10:53 fib1618: which is a highly bullish event
2016-03-17 16:11:12 fib1618: sure didn't hurt to have the FED tell us what we already knew before yesterday
2016-03-17 16:11:41 fib1618: that the likelihood of a rate increase was going to be pulled back a bit
2016-03-17 16:11:54 fib1618: and at the next meeting...probably taken off the table altogether
2016-03-17 16:12:01 fib1618: gold rocketed higher on the news
2016-03-17 16:12:24 fib1618: but showed no follow through today
2016-03-17 16:13:01 fib1618: as mentioned at the top of the chat
2016-03-17 16:13:50 fib1618: the NYA has now come very close in meeting its upside target closing at the 10,190 level
2016-03-17 16:14:29 fib1618: and the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM is now a day away from reaching its next hurdle, the +750 level
2016-03-17 16:14:44 fib1618: in order to get new higher price objectives
2016-03-17 16:14:54 fib1618: the MCO will now have to take out the highs of last Friday
2016-03-17 16:15:32 fib1618: and 10,600 would then be the target
2016-03-17 16:15:49 fib1618: or the highs of early November
2016-03-17 16:16:21 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO continues with the same amplitude of the CO MCO
2016-03-17 16:16:38 fib1618: as it settled today with a +62 reading
2016-03-17 16:16:54 fib1618: and meanwhile
2016-03-17 16:17:11 fib1618: we had a good expansion gap to the upside in the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-03-17 16:17:21 fib1618: so the next target there will be the +1000 level
2016-03-17 16:17:25 fib1618: and keeping in mind
2016-03-17 16:17:28 fib1618: that the higher we go here
2016-03-17 16:17:47 fib1618: the more the average stock on this exchange will move in points
2016-03-17 16:17:50 fib1618: for example
2016-03-17 16:18:03 fib1618: a +500 reading would have the average stock move in 1/4 points
2016-03-17 16:18:10 fib1618: +750, 1/2 points
2016-03-17 16:18:21 fib1618: +1000, 3/4 points
2016-03-17 16:18:26 fib1618: this kind of thing
2016-03-17 16:19:00 fib1618: as there is less and less selling to offset this fluidity factor
2016-03-17 16:19:29 fib1618: looking again at the price chart
2016-03-17 16:19:43 fib1618: and we see that the current uptrend has a nice trending cadence to it now
2016-03-17 16:19:55 fib1618: where we rally
2016-03-17 16:19:57 fib1618: consolidate
2016-03-17 16:20:00 fib1618: rally again
2016-03-17 16:20:02 fib1618: consolidate
2016-03-17 16:20:09 thespookyone: those structures are starting to look pretty bullish off that bottom...
2016-03-17 16:20:15 fib1618: with little in the way of price decay
2016-03-17 16:20:17 fib1618: yes Lew
2016-03-17 16:20:43 fib1618: with the confirmation of the double bottom back at the first week of March
2016-03-17 16:20:54 fib1618: the deeper the liquidity pool
2016-03-17 16:21:09 fib1618: the easier it becomes for the buyers to push prices in their direction
2016-03-17 16:21:44 fib1618: it continues to amaze me how the MCSUM can call bottoms and tops like it does with such accuracy
2016-03-17 16:21:53 fib1618: remember
2016-03-17 16:22:00 fib1618: the estimate was for around February OPEX
2016-03-17 16:22:05 fib1618: and it came in a week early
2016-03-17 16:22:18 thespookyone: yep
2016-03-17 16:22:21 fib1618: probably should had paid more attention at the time
2016-03-17 16:22:49 fib1618: but I think the BETS kept investors from fully participating...at least so far
2016-03-17 16:22:57 fib1618: traders though are having a great time
2016-03-17 16:22:59 thespookyone: I'd rather kill it our way, cautious and steady
2016-03-17 16:23:10 thespookyone: like we have
2016-03-17 16:23:24 fib1618: yep...bull markets are marathons...not sprints
2016-03-17 16:23:41 thespookyone: lots of great base hits here
2016-03-17 16:23:51 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-03-17 16:24:33 fib1618: and here we continue to see that money isn't quite feeling the love as yet with these basket of issues
2016-03-17 16:24:53 fib1618: with the last couple of days only able to push the MCO to the +34 level
2016-03-17 16:25:17 fib1618: it will need to move back above +50 in order to feel more comfortable with the growth area
2016-03-17 16:25:22 fib1618: and by extension, the market overall
2016-03-17 16:25:38 fib1618: hopefully it's not because of the NDX issues
2016-03-17 16:25:49 fib1618: but moving there
2016-03-17 16:25:53 fib1618: and we find that it is
2016-03-17 16:26:34 fib1618: as we had a lower MCO reading today
2016-03-17 16:26:38 fib1618: like the previous MCO's
2016-03-17 16:27:13 fib1618: we will need to see this MCO move back above last Friday's highs before we can not only feel comfortable that this 2 day rally maybe something more than it appears
2016-03-17 16:27:26 fib1618: but to also get new upside price targets
2016-03-17 16:27:57 fib1618: looking at both the price averages of the NASDAQ and NDX
2016-03-17 16:28:16 fib1618: and we're still 100 points away from reaching the same area target set by the NYA index
2016-03-17 16:28:37 fib1618: so a bit of a "logistics" problem for the near term
2016-03-17 16:29:09 fib1618: moving to the SPX
2016-03-17 16:29:22 fib1618: and we are now about 10 points from reaching the upside target of 2050
2016-03-17 16:29:32 fib1618: which may be close enough
2016-03-17 16:29:43 fib1618: but with the SPX breadth MCSUM continuing to sprint higher
2016-03-17 16:30:14 fib1618: any actual "meet and greet" price top may have to wait until early next week
2016-03-17 16:30:43 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO components though remain incredibly strong here
2016-03-17 16:31:20 fib1618: and this helped in going with the probable bounce forecast for Wednesday when we reviewed the data on Tuesday
2016-03-17 16:31:48 fib1618: nice strength now coming into the OEX issues
2016-03-17 16:32:02 fib1618: as the 10% Trend moved to new highs today
2016-03-17 16:32:24 fib1618: and this not only help push the OEX breadth MCSUM above the +500 level
2016-03-17 16:32:50 fib1618: but this strength in money flow has now cleared the way for this MCSUM to challenge the +750 level
2016-03-17 16:33:44 fib1618: and since it usually takes 5-8 trading days to move every 250 increments
2016-03-17 16:34:00 fib1618: the mega caps should have a firm week coming up
2016-03-17 16:34:05 fib1618: even after OPEX
2016-03-17 16:34:49 fib1618: and that would be a whisper that current underlying strength is keeping prices from correcting for more than a day at a time
2016-03-17 16:34:59 fib1618: of course
2016-03-17 16:35:17 fib1618: another advantage of higher MCSUM highs
2016-03-17 16:35:30 fib1618: is that prices will tend to trend for more days in a row
2016-03-17 16:35:36 fib1618: and correct for less and less time
2016-03-17 16:35:40 fib1618: for example
2016-03-17 16:35:41 fib1618: right now
2016-03-17 16:35:57 fib1618: we're moving on a sequence of around 2-3 days of strength
2016-03-17 16:36:01 fib1618: and one day of rest
2016-03-17 16:36:07 fib1618: as the MCSUM's move higher
2016-03-17 16:36:25 fib1618: the days of strength extend to maybe 4-5 days in a row
2016-03-17 16:36:42 fib1618: and the corrections would then become those of the intraday variety
2016-03-17 16:36:57 fib1618: needless to say
2016-03-17 16:37:30 fib1618: this provides a "no fair" trading advantage to those who understand these dynamics
2016-03-17 16:37:44 thespookyone: [smile]
2016-03-17 16:37:59 fib1618: we'll call the upside Dow target now complete
2016-03-17 16:38:16 fib1618: having move above the 17,500 level intraday today
2016-03-17 16:38:53 fib1618: and the Dow breadth MCO missed by 1 point from moving above Friday's highs
2016-03-17 16:39:01 fib1618: whoops
2016-03-17 16:39:01 fib1618: wrong
2016-03-17 16:39:12 fib1618: actually above the early March highs
2016-03-17 16:39:18 fib1618: so based on this
2016-03-17 16:39:26 fib1618: we have a new higher target for the Dow
2016-03-17 16:39:56 fib1618: let's call it 17,700 for now
2016-03-17 16:40:12 fib1618: but any break above the early March levels
2016-03-17 16:40:21 fib1618: and the new forecast would be for...
2016-03-17 16:40:52 fib1618: coincidental or not
2016-03-17 16:40:59 fib1618: the forecast would be for the all time highs
2016-03-17 16:41:08 fib1618: at 18,250
2016-03-17 16:41:32 fib1618: kind of forgot
2016-03-17 16:41:44 fib1618: but we have a double/double bottom formation on the Dow now
2016-03-17 16:41:58 fib1618: not only did we double bottom with the recent lows
2016-03-17 16:42:06 fib1618: but also with the August lows as well
2016-03-17 16:42:12 fib1618: that's a solid floor now...an Elliott flat if you will
2016-03-17 16:42:47 fib1618: and if the Dow MCO can take out the October highs
2016-03-17 16:43:02 fib1618: that will allow prices to move to new all time highs...and stay there
2016-03-17 16:43:43 fib1618: boy...it's amazing on how "joined at the hip" the indices are right now both internally and with price
2016-03-17 16:44:01 fib1618: where, for example, we had many showing mid to upper teen MCO readings on Tuesday
2016-03-17 16:44:14 fib1618: now we have lower +60 readings
2016-03-17 16:44:50 fib1618: another upside price target for the MID was reached today
2016-03-17 16:45:27 fib1618: and the MID breadth MCSUM is less than 93 data points from reaching the +1000 level
2016-03-17 16:45:43 fib1618: I'm sensing now that the market has an agenda now
2016-03-17 16:46:06 fib1618: look at the recent bottom above bottom price action in the MID
2016-03-17 16:46:25 fib1618: this usually occurs during price sequences that move above a 45 degree angle of ascent
2016-03-17 16:46:44 fib1618: for Elliottician's out there...a simple 1-2...now in 3
2016-03-17 16:47:11 fib1618: last Friday's peaks in the MCO's are now very important for the intermediate term
2016-03-17 16:47:17 fib1618: for if we don't break above this level
2016-03-17 16:47:43 fib1618: the MCSUM will be topping out at or near their current 250 incremental targets
2016-03-17 16:48:12 fib1618: character move to the upside for the SML today
2016-03-17 16:48:35 fib1618: and it looks like our 680 price target will be reached by Monday
2016-03-17 16:49:31 fib1618: and this two days of strength has now push the TM breadth MCSUM up and through the +500 level
2016-03-17 16:50:01 fib1618: so we have now achieved "escape velocity" on the broadest gauge of market activity
2016-03-17 16:50:06 fib1618: so...
2016-03-17 16:50:14 fib1618: it's up to the buyers now
2016-03-17 16:50:36 fib1618: will they get a new lease on life and plow through last Friday's MCO highs?
2016-03-17 16:51:06 fib1618: or will they fail to convince traders that it might be time to put their money to work
2016-03-17 16:51:21 fib1618: let me jump to the BETS and see how its doing
2016-03-17 16:52:12 fib1618: NYAD line is now flying north
2016-03-17 16:52:18 fib1618: and has now moved to a bullish configuration as of today
2016-03-17 16:52:42 fib1618: OK...as expected on Tuesday
2016-03-17 16:52:44 fib1618: now at +20
2016-03-17 16:53:13 fib1618: but the current configurations won't give us anything above this for a while
2016-03-17 16:54:42 fib1618: so we'll just have to be happy with the work we've done already
2016-03-17 16:54:43 fib1618: [smile]
2016-03-17 16:54:56 fib1618: which...really...has been quite strong
2016-03-17 16:55:05 fib1618: remember a month ago we were at a -75
2016-03-17 16:55:15 fib1618: and buried
2016-03-17 16:55:24 fib1618: but evidently, not dead
2016-03-17 16:55:30 fib1618: OK...sectors
2016-03-17 16:56:02 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO snapped back up to the +50 level today
2016-03-17 16:56:18 fib1618: while the XLY components remain highly elevated like those with the SPX data
2016-03-17 16:56:41 fib1618: looks like we're clear for a trip to the +1000 level here as well on the XLY breadth MCSUM
2016-03-17 16:57:22 fib1618: as we finally closed the price pattern gap from the beginning of he year over the last couple of days
2016-03-17 16:57:58 fib1618: the XLP price action continues to make new all time highs
2016-03-17 16:58:26 fib1618: while the XLP breadth MCSUM has now cleared its way above the +1250 level
2016-03-17 16:59:03 fib1618: so we remain on a buy signal there
2016-03-17 16:59:29 fib1618: the XLE continues to build upside momentum
2016-03-17 16:59:41 fib1618: with the price of crude now up some $14 since its 2/11 lows
2016-03-17 17:00:09 fib1618: we also note that the price action was finally able to break above the $62 level on Wednesday
2016-03-17 17:00:32 fib1618: which was the same day that the XLE breadth MCSUM was able to move above the +750 level
2016-03-17 17:00:58 fib1618: so let's look for the next price target given last week of around $68
2016-03-17 17:02:32 fib1618: and, coincidentally or not, the XLF price action was finally able to move above pattern resistance today at the $22.50 level as the XLF breadth MCSUM moved up and through the +500 level
2016-03-17 17:02:36 fib1618: showing once again that these 250 multiple areas of the MCSUM should never be under estimated as to what they mean for the price action itself
2016-03-17 17:03:28 fib1618: looking for $23.50 now in the XLF
2016-03-17 17:03:34 fib1618: worth a skim?
2016-03-17 17:03:37 fib1618: I don't know
2016-03-17 17:03:46 fib1618: not a lot a bang for your trade
2016-03-17 17:03:58 fib1618: unless you're trading in the 1000's of shares
2016-03-17 17:04:31 fib1618: and as expected last week
2016-03-17 17:04:43 fib1618: we have a technical breakdown in the XLV breadth MCO
2016-03-17 17:05:01 fib1618: with the XLV breadth MCSUM finding bear market resistance at the +250 level
2016-03-17 17:05:40 fib1618: so let's look for a test of the $63 level there
2016-03-17 17:06:00 fib1618: yowsa!
2016-03-17 17:06:27 fib1618: high volume breakout to the upside in the XLI today
2016-03-17 17:07:01 fib1618: previous highs there are at around $57
2016-03-17 17:07:19 fib1618: and that would be the all time highs
2016-03-17 17:07:54 fib1618: this now suggests that the large caps that make up the Dow Industrials and the Transports are likely to rally for a while
2016-03-17 17:08:13 fib1618: at least to take out the October/November price highs
2016-03-17 17:08:29 fib1618: 2% move...that's huge
2016-03-17 17:08:40 fib1618: let me see which component(s) did the work
2016-03-17 17:09:42 fib1618: didn't know this
2016-03-17 17:09:54 fib1618: GE has the highest weighting there of 11.52%
2016-03-17 17:10:18 fib1618: and it was up 2.62%
2016-03-17 17:10:26 fib1618: there's your answer
2016-03-17 17:10:50 fib1618: GE's pattern looks pretty good here
2016-03-17 17:11:19 fib1618: has a dividend of 3%
2016-03-17 17:11:29 fib1618: we've seen this pattern for a while now
2016-03-17 17:11:55 fib1618: where the dividend issues have been attracting money lately
2016-03-17 17:12:09 fib1618: also of note
2016-03-17 17:12:23 fib1618: (I know, I sound like a broken record)
2016-03-17 17:12:39 fib1618: but the XLI breadth MCSUM broke above the +1000 level today with this price breakout
2016-03-17 17:13:16 fib1618: wow
2016-03-17 17:13:22 fib1618: same thing with the XLB
2016-03-17 17:13:30 fib1618: both with price and the MCSUM
2016-03-17 17:13:51 fib1618: all time highs there are at $51
2016-03-17 17:14:13 fib1618: so still some work to be done there
2016-03-17 17:14:19 fib1618: the XLI was impressive
2016-03-17 17:14:36 fib1618: and once again
2016-03-17 17:14:45 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCSUM also moved above the +1000 level today
2016-03-17 17:14:58 fib1618: as the XLK price action continues to climb a wall of worry
2016-03-17 17:15:20 fib1618: note here that the XLK breadth MCO did move above Friday's highs today
2016-03-17 17:15:45 fib1618: so we should have enough behind us now to move above the November/December highs
2016-03-17 17:16:12 fib1618: got to love the look of the longer term chart action of the XLK
2016-03-17 17:16:37 fib1618: spidey sense is tingling :0
2016-03-17 17:16:51 fib1618: OMG
2016-03-17 17:16:57 fib1618: oh man
2016-03-17 17:17:03 fib1618: and the XLU is out of control
2016-03-17 17:17:40 fib1618: I have no idea there of high, high will be
2016-03-17 17:17:46 fib1618: the sector is on fire
2016-03-17 17:18:03 fib1618: up and through +2250 on the MCSUM today
2016-03-17 17:18:08 fib1618: let me check the historic data
2016-03-17 17:18:20 thespookyone: The Fed is ordering it right up, where can money be put?
2016-03-17 17:18:55 fib1618: the highest point is May of 2013 around +2750
2016-03-17 17:19:18 fib1618: yep...it's all about yield
2016-03-17 17:19:23 fib1618: as simple as that
2016-03-17 17:19:45 fib1618: this why the NYSE Preferred A/D line continues to make new all time highs week after week
2016-03-17 17:19:55 fib1618: you got the equity of a stock
2016-03-17 17:20:12 fib1618: and a high yield while you wait
2016-03-17 17:20:25 fib1618: so...
2016-03-17 17:20:35 fib1618: things continue to look more and more bullish
2016-03-17 17:20:53 fib1618: and if we can get the MCO's to take out last Friday's high points
2016-03-17 17:21:02 fib1618: this thing has the opportunity to really make a run
2016-03-17 17:21:13 fib1618: and this would extend probably into June (!)
2016-03-17 17:21:54 fib1618: I think I read somewhere that Tom McClellan was looking for an April low
2016-03-17 17:22:10 fib1618: if we take out last Friday's MCO highs
2016-03-17 17:22:20 fib1618: geez...I don't know
2016-03-17 17:22:38 fib1618: the MCSUM are already showing bullish action
2016-03-17 17:22:49 fib1618: with the only real problem coming with the NASDAQ
2016-03-17 17:23:03 fib1618: but if money is chasing yield
2016-03-17 17:23:12 fib1618: maybe the NASDAQ growth issues don't matter here...at least at the onset
2016-03-17 17:23:18 fib1618: call it a larger rotation of funds
2016-03-17 17:23:37 fib1618: and once easier money has found its way into growth
2016-03-17 17:23:44 fib1618: then we'll see a bit of catch up
2016-03-17 17:23:48 fib1618: interesting times
2016-03-17 17:24:09 fib1618: OBV's
2016-03-17 17:24:39 fib1618: CVI's are elevated, but not climactic
2016-03-17 17:24:46 fib1618: STVO's are "overbought"
2016-03-17 17:24:54 fib1618: as are the VTO's
2016-03-17 17:25:07 fib1618: but with the high "overbought" imbalance in the MCSUM's
2016-03-17 17:25:17 fib1618: we'll only to "correct on the fly" now
2016-03-17 17:25:48 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .98
2016-03-17 17:26:00 fib1618: Open 10 at .99
2016-03-17 17:26:05 fib1618: wow...did that air out fast!
2016-03-17 17:26:15 fib1618: that's bullish
2016-03-17 17:26:32 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.27
2016-03-17 17:26:41 fib1618: Open 10 at .94
2016-03-17 17:26:56 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.25
2016-03-17 17:27:08 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2016-03-17 17:27:28 fib1618: so...
2016-03-17 17:27:32 fib1618: what's not to like?
2016-03-17 17:27:52 fib1618: yes, there are some chuck holes in the pavement
2016-03-17 17:28:07 fib1618: but if the buyers bring in the big guns now
2016-03-17 17:28:29 fib1618: we'll going to see this current rally extend for a while
2016-03-17 17:29:05 fib1618: watch 21,250 on the Wilshire 5000
2016-03-17 17:29:19 fib1618: that's important trendline resistance
2016-03-17 17:29:47 fib1618: lots of potential here
2016-03-17 17:29:59 fib1618: but, boy, I would love to see a rest
2016-03-17 17:30:08 fib1618: just don't know if we'll get one now
2016-03-17 17:30:26 fib1618: getting the feeling that there is a lot of top picking going on right now
2016-03-17 17:30:34 fib1618: could be OPEX too
2016-03-17 17:30:43 fib1618: futures went off the board at the close
2016-03-17 17:31:10 fib1618: volume is likely to be huge in the morning given how things bottomed in February and the hard reversal there after
2016-03-17 17:31:41 fib1618: we'll have to wait and see
2016-03-17 17:32:11 fib1618: but this constant improvement has a very bullish vibe to it
2016-03-17 17:32:20 fib1618: and we'll go with that until proven otherwise
2016-03-17 17:32:24 fib1618: anything else?
2016-03-17 17:33:03 fib1618: nice surprises in the sectors
2016-03-17 17:33:23 fib1618: the utilities have been a great trade since the triangle breakout
2016-03-17 17:33:39 fib1618: and even better
2016-03-17 17:33:48 fib1618: very few, if any, are talking about it
2016-03-17 17:34:51 fib1618: I mean
2016-03-17 17:35:11 fib1618: it's hard to find a time when the utility average up 12% in 2 months
2016-03-17 17:35:48 fib1618: oh...guess what?
2016-03-17 17:35:57 fib1618: Dow Utilities are at all time highs
2016-03-17 17:36:21 fib1618: and when was the last time we've a bear market when the utilities were leading the Transports and Industrials?
2016-03-17 17:36:24 fib1618: never
2016-03-17 17:36:59 fib1618: at least none that I remember
2016-03-17 17:37:07 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-03-17 17:37:12 fib1618: I'm going to take my leave
2016-03-17 17:37:18 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend
2016-03-17 17:37:25 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2016-03-17 17:37:27 fib1618: good night


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"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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