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Posts: 5,090
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-03-17 16:00:02 fib1618: good day
2016-03-17 16:00:06 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-03-17 16:03:54 thespookyone: Very well, thx, and you?
2016-03-17 16:04:07 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-03-17 16:04:22 thespookyone: Traders market, loving it [smile]
2016-03-17 16:06:33 fib1618: hehe
2016-03-17 16:06:42 fib1618: I heard where we closed today on the Dow
2016-03-17 16:06:50 fib1618: so both upside targets have now been met...or nearly so
2016-03-17 16:08:04 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-03-17 16:08:46 fib1618: after finding expected support from Tuesday lows
2016-03-17 16:08:57 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continued higher today
2016-03-17 16:09:27 fib1618: which wasn't the expectation from Tuesday
2016-03-17 16:09:44 fib1618: and this tells us that something else might be going on now that needs our attention
2016-03-17 16:09:51 fib1618: the expectation was for a bounce on Wednesday
2016-03-17 16:09:57 fib1618: but then moving lower into OPEX
2016-03-17 16:10:18 fib1618: with the CO moving easily back to the +63 level
2016-03-17 16:10:35 fib1618: it might be that we're getting a double pump thrust
2016-03-17 16:10:53 fib1618: which is a highly bullish event
2016-03-17 16:11:12 fib1618: sure didn't hurt to have the FED tell us what we already knew before yesterday
2016-03-17 16:11:41 fib1618: that the likelihood of a rate increase was going to be pulled back a bit
2016-03-17 16:11:54 fib1618: and at the next meeting...probably taken off the table altogether
2016-03-17 16:12:01 fib1618: gold rocketed higher on the news
2016-03-17 16:12:24 fib1618: but showed no follow through today
2016-03-17 16:13:01 fib1618: as mentioned at the top of the chat
2016-03-17 16:13:50 fib1618: the NYA has now come very close in meeting its upside target closing at the 10,190 level
2016-03-17 16:14:29 fib1618: and the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM is now a day away from reaching its next hurdle, the +750 level
2016-03-17 16:14:44 fib1618: in order to get new higher price objectives
2016-03-17 16:14:54 fib1618: the MCO will now have to take out the highs of last Friday
2016-03-17 16:15:32 fib1618: and 10,600 would then be the target
2016-03-17 16:15:49 fib1618: or the highs of early November
2016-03-17 16:16:21 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO continues with the same amplitude of the CO MCO
2016-03-17 16:16:38 fib1618: as it settled today with a +62 reading
2016-03-17 16:16:54 fib1618: and meanwhile
2016-03-17 16:17:11 fib1618: we had a good expansion gap to the upside in the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-03-17 16:17:21 fib1618: so the next target there will be the +1000 level
2016-03-17 16:17:25 fib1618: and keeping in mind
2016-03-17 16:17:28 fib1618: that the higher we go here
2016-03-17 16:17:47 fib1618: the more the average stock on this exchange will move in points
2016-03-17 16:17:50 fib1618: for example
2016-03-17 16:18:03 fib1618: a +500 reading would have the average stock move in 1/4 points
2016-03-17 16:18:10 fib1618: +750, 1/2 points
2016-03-17 16:18:21 fib1618: +1000, 3/4 points
2016-03-17 16:18:26 fib1618: this kind of thing
2016-03-17 16:19:00 fib1618: as there is less and less selling to offset this fluidity factor
2016-03-17 16:19:29 fib1618: looking again at the price chart
2016-03-17 16:19:43 fib1618: and we see that the current uptrend has a nice trending cadence to it now
2016-03-17 16:19:55 fib1618: where we rally
2016-03-17 16:19:57 fib1618: consolidate
2016-03-17 16:20:00 fib1618: rally again
2016-03-17 16:20:02 fib1618: consolidate
2016-03-17 16:20:09 thespookyone: those structures are starting to look pretty bullish off that bottom...
2016-03-17 16:20:15 fib1618: with little in the way of price decay
2016-03-17 16:20:17 fib1618: yes Lew
2016-03-17 16:20:43 fib1618: with the confirmation of the double bottom back at the first week of March
2016-03-17 16:20:54 fib1618: the deeper the liquidity pool
2016-03-17 16:21:09 fib1618: the easier it becomes for the buyers to push prices in their direction
2016-03-17 16:21:44 fib1618: it continues to amaze me how the MCSUM can call bottoms and tops like it does with such accuracy
2016-03-17 16:21:53 fib1618: remember
2016-03-17 16:22:00 fib1618: the estimate was for around February OPEX
2016-03-17 16:22:05 fib1618: and it came in a week early
2016-03-17 16:22:18 thespookyone: yep
2016-03-17 16:22:21 fib1618: probably should had paid more attention at the time
2016-03-17 16:22:49 fib1618: but I think the BETS kept investors from fully least so far
2016-03-17 16:22:57 fib1618: traders though are having a great time
2016-03-17 16:22:59 thespookyone: I'd rather kill it our way, cautious and steady
2016-03-17 16:23:10 thespookyone: like we have
2016-03-17 16:23:24 fib1618: yep...bull markets are marathons...not sprints
2016-03-17 16:23:41 thespookyone: lots of great base hits here
2016-03-17 16:23:51 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-03-17 16:24:33 fib1618: and here we continue to see that money isn't quite feeling the love as yet with these basket of issues
2016-03-17 16:24:53 fib1618: with the last couple of days only able to push the MCO to the +34 level
2016-03-17 16:25:17 fib1618: it will need to move back above +50 in order to feel more comfortable with the growth area
2016-03-17 16:25:22 fib1618: and by extension, the market overall
2016-03-17 16:25:38 fib1618: hopefully it's not because of the NDX issues
2016-03-17 16:25:49 fib1618: but moving there
2016-03-17 16:25:53 fib1618: and we find that it is
2016-03-17 16:26:34 fib1618: as we had a lower MCO reading today
2016-03-17 16:26:38 fib1618: like the previous MCO's
2016-03-17 16:27:13 fib1618: we will need to see this MCO move back above last Friday's highs before we can not only feel comfortable that this 2 day rally maybe something more than it appears
2016-03-17 16:27:26 fib1618: but to also get new upside price targets
2016-03-17 16:27:57 fib1618: looking at both the price averages of the NASDAQ and NDX
2016-03-17 16:28:16 fib1618: and we're still 100 points away from reaching the same area target set by the NYA index
2016-03-17 16:28:37 fib1618: so a bit of a "logistics" problem for the near term
2016-03-17 16:29:09 fib1618: moving to the SPX
2016-03-17 16:29:22 fib1618: and we are now about 10 points from reaching the upside target of 2050
2016-03-17 16:29:32 fib1618: which may be close enough
2016-03-17 16:29:43 fib1618: but with the SPX breadth MCSUM continuing to sprint higher
2016-03-17 16:30:14 fib1618: any actual "meet and greet" price top may have to wait until early next week
2016-03-17 16:30:43 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO components though remain incredibly strong here
2016-03-17 16:31:20 fib1618: and this helped in going with the probable bounce forecast for Wednesday when we reviewed the data on Tuesday
2016-03-17 16:31:48 fib1618: nice strength now coming into the OEX issues
2016-03-17 16:32:02 fib1618: as the 10% Trend moved to new highs today
2016-03-17 16:32:24 fib1618: and this not only help push the OEX breadth MCSUM above the +500 level
2016-03-17 16:32:50 fib1618: but this strength in money flow has now cleared the way for this MCSUM to challenge the +750 level
2016-03-17 16:33:44 fib1618: and since it usually takes 5-8 trading days to move every 250 increments
2016-03-17 16:34:00 fib1618: the mega caps should have a firm week coming up
2016-03-17 16:34:05 fib1618: even after OPEX
2016-03-17 16:34:49 fib1618: and that would be a whisper that current underlying strength is keeping prices from correcting for more than a day at a time
2016-03-17 16:34:59 fib1618: of course
2016-03-17 16:35:17 fib1618: another advantage of higher MCSUM highs
2016-03-17 16:35:30 fib1618: is that prices will tend to trend for more days in a row
2016-03-17 16:35:36 fib1618: and correct for less and less time
2016-03-17 16:35:40 fib1618: for example
2016-03-17 16:35:41 fib1618: right now
2016-03-17 16:35:57 fib1618: we're moving on a sequence of around 2-3 days of strength
2016-03-17 16:36:01 fib1618: and one day of rest
2016-03-17 16:36:07 fib1618: as the MCSUM's move higher
2016-03-17 16:36:25 fib1618: the days of strength extend to maybe 4-5 days in a row
2016-03-17 16:36:42 fib1618: and the corrections would then become those of the intraday variety
2016-03-17 16:36:57 fib1618: needless to say
2016-03-17 16:37:30 fib1618: this provides a "no fair" trading advantage to those who understand these dynamics
2016-03-17 16:37:44 thespookyone: [smile]
2016-03-17 16:37:59 fib1618: we'll call the upside Dow target now complete
2016-03-17 16:38:16 fib1618: having move above the 17,500 level intraday today
2016-03-17 16:38:53 fib1618: and the Dow breadth MCO missed by 1 point from moving above Friday's highs
2016-03-17 16:39:01 fib1618: whoops
2016-03-17 16:39:01 fib1618: wrong
2016-03-17 16:39:12 fib1618: actually above the early March highs
2016-03-17 16:39:18 fib1618: so based on this
2016-03-17 16:39:26 fib1618: we have a new higher target for the Dow
2016-03-17 16:39:56 fib1618: let's call it 17,700 for now
2016-03-17 16:40:12 fib1618: but any break above the early March levels
2016-03-17 16:40:21 fib1618: and the new forecast would be for...
2016-03-17 16:40:52 fib1618: coincidental or not
2016-03-17 16:40:59 fib1618: the forecast would be for the all time highs
2016-03-17 16:41:08 fib1618: at 18,250
2016-03-17 16:41:32 fib1618: kind of forgot
2016-03-17 16:41:44 fib1618: but we have a double/double bottom formation on the Dow now
2016-03-17 16:41:58 fib1618: not only did we double bottom with the recent lows
2016-03-17 16:42:06 fib1618: but also with the August lows as well
2016-03-17 16:42:12 fib1618: that's a solid floor Elliott flat if you will
2016-03-17 16:42:47 fib1618: and if the Dow MCO can take out the October highs
2016-03-17 16:43:02 fib1618: that will allow prices to move to new all time highs...and stay there
2016-03-17 16:43:43 fib1618:'s amazing on how "joined at the hip" the indices are right now both internally and with price
2016-03-17 16:44:01 fib1618: where, for example, we had many showing mid to upper teen MCO readings on Tuesday
2016-03-17 16:44:14 fib1618: now we have lower +60 readings
2016-03-17 16:44:50 fib1618: another upside price target for the MID was reached today
2016-03-17 16:45:27 fib1618: and the MID breadth MCSUM is less than 93 data points from reaching the +1000 level
2016-03-17 16:45:43 fib1618: I'm sensing now that the market has an agenda now
2016-03-17 16:46:06 fib1618: look at the recent bottom above bottom price action in the MID
2016-03-17 16:46:25 fib1618: this usually occurs during price sequences that move above a 45 degree angle of ascent
2016-03-17 16:46:44 fib1618: for Elliottician's out there...a simple in 3
2016-03-17 16:47:11 fib1618: last Friday's peaks in the MCO's are now very important for the intermediate term
2016-03-17 16:47:17 fib1618: for if we don't break above this level
2016-03-17 16:47:43 fib1618: the MCSUM will be topping out at or near their current 250 incremental targets
2016-03-17 16:48:12 fib1618: character move to the upside for the SML today
2016-03-17 16:48:35 fib1618: and it looks like our 680 price target will be reached by Monday
2016-03-17 16:49:31 fib1618: and this two days of strength has now push the TM breadth MCSUM up and through the +500 level
2016-03-17 16:50:01 fib1618: so we have now achieved "escape velocity" on the broadest gauge of market activity
2016-03-17 16:50:06 fib1618: so...
2016-03-17 16:50:14 fib1618: it's up to the buyers now
2016-03-17 16:50:36 fib1618: will they get a new lease on life and plow through last Friday's MCO highs?
2016-03-17 16:51:06 fib1618: or will they fail to convince traders that it might be time to put their money to work
2016-03-17 16:51:21 fib1618: let me jump to the BETS and see how its doing
2016-03-17 16:52:12 fib1618: NYAD line is now flying north
2016-03-17 16:52:18 fib1618: and has now moved to a bullish configuration as of today
2016-03-17 16:52:42 fib1618: expected on Tuesday
2016-03-17 16:52:44 fib1618: now at +20
2016-03-17 16:53:13 fib1618: but the current configurations won't give us anything above this for a while
2016-03-17 16:54:42 fib1618: so we'll just have to be happy with the work we've done already
2016-03-17 16:54:43 fib1618: [smile]
2016-03-17 16:54:56 fib1618: which...really...has been quite strong
2016-03-17 16:55:05 fib1618: remember a month ago we were at a -75
2016-03-17 16:55:15 fib1618: and buried
2016-03-17 16:55:24 fib1618: but evidently, not dead
2016-03-17 16:55:30 fib1618: OK...sectors
2016-03-17 16:56:02 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO snapped back up to the +50 level today
2016-03-17 16:56:18 fib1618: while the XLY components remain highly elevated like those with the SPX data
2016-03-17 16:56:41 fib1618: looks like we're clear for a trip to the +1000 level here as well on the XLY breadth MCSUM
2016-03-17 16:57:22 fib1618: as we finally closed the price pattern gap from the beginning of he year over the last couple of days
2016-03-17 16:57:58 fib1618: the XLP price action continues to make new all time highs
2016-03-17 16:58:26 fib1618: while the XLP breadth MCSUM has now cleared its way above the +1250 level
2016-03-17 16:59:03 fib1618: so we remain on a buy signal there
2016-03-17 16:59:29 fib1618: the XLE continues to build upside momentum
2016-03-17 16:59:41 fib1618: with the price of crude now up some $14 since its 2/11 lows
2016-03-17 17:00:09 fib1618: we also note that the price action was finally able to break above the $62 level on Wednesday
2016-03-17 17:00:32 fib1618: which was the same day that the XLE breadth MCSUM was able to move above the +750 level
2016-03-17 17:00:58 fib1618: so let's look for the next price target given last week of around $68
2016-03-17 17:02:32 fib1618: and, coincidentally or not, the XLF price action was finally able to move above pattern resistance today at the $22.50 level as the XLF breadth MCSUM moved up and through the +500 level
2016-03-17 17:02:36 fib1618: showing once again that these 250 multiple areas of the MCSUM should never be under estimated as to what they mean for the price action itself
2016-03-17 17:03:28 fib1618: looking for $23.50 now in the XLF
2016-03-17 17:03:34 fib1618: worth a skim?
2016-03-17 17:03:37 fib1618: I don't know
2016-03-17 17:03:46 fib1618: not a lot a bang for your trade
2016-03-17 17:03:58 fib1618: unless you're trading in the 1000's of shares
2016-03-17 17:04:31 fib1618: and as expected last week
2016-03-17 17:04:43 fib1618: we have a technical breakdown in the XLV breadth MCO
2016-03-17 17:05:01 fib1618: with the XLV breadth MCSUM finding bear market resistance at the +250 level
2016-03-17 17:05:40 fib1618: so let's look for a test of the $63 level there
2016-03-17 17:06:00 fib1618: yowsa!
2016-03-17 17:06:27 fib1618: high volume breakout to the upside in the XLI today
2016-03-17 17:07:01 fib1618: previous highs there are at around $57
2016-03-17 17:07:19 fib1618: and that would be the all time highs
2016-03-17 17:07:54 fib1618: this now suggests that the large caps that make up the Dow Industrials and the Transports are likely to rally for a while
2016-03-17 17:08:13 fib1618: at least to take out the October/November price highs
2016-03-17 17:08:29 fib1618: 2% move...that's huge
2016-03-17 17:08:40 fib1618: let me see which component(s) did the work
2016-03-17 17:09:42 fib1618: didn't know this
2016-03-17 17:09:54 fib1618: GE has the highest weighting there of 11.52%
2016-03-17 17:10:18 fib1618: and it was up 2.62%
2016-03-17 17:10:26 fib1618: there's your answer
2016-03-17 17:10:50 fib1618: GE's pattern looks pretty good here
2016-03-17 17:11:19 fib1618: has a dividend of 3%
2016-03-17 17:11:29 fib1618: we've seen this pattern for a while now
2016-03-17 17:11:55 fib1618: where the dividend issues have been attracting money lately
2016-03-17 17:12:09 fib1618: also of note
2016-03-17 17:12:23 fib1618: (I know, I sound like a broken record)
2016-03-17 17:12:39 fib1618: but the XLI breadth MCSUM broke above the +1000 level today with this price breakout
2016-03-17 17:13:16 fib1618: wow
2016-03-17 17:13:22 fib1618: same thing with the XLB
2016-03-17 17:13:30 fib1618: both with price and the MCSUM
2016-03-17 17:13:51 fib1618: all time highs there are at $51
2016-03-17 17:14:13 fib1618: so still some work to be done there
2016-03-17 17:14:19 fib1618: the XLI was impressive
2016-03-17 17:14:36 fib1618: and once again
2016-03-17 17:14:45 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCSUM also moved above the +1000 level today
2016-03-17 17:14:58 fib1618: as the XLK price action continues to climb a wall of worry
2016-03-17 17:15:20 fib1618: note here that the XLK breadth MCO did move above Friday's highs today
2016-03-17 17:15:45 fib1618: so we should have enough behind us now to move above the November/December highs
2016-03-17 17:16:12 fib1618: got to love the look of the longer term chart action of the XLK
2016-03-17 17:16:37 fib1618: spidey sense is tingling :0
2016-03-17 17:16:51 fib1618: OMG
2016-03-17 17:16:57 fib1618: oh man
2016-03-17 17:17:03 fib1618: and the XLU is out of control
2016-03-17 17:17:40 fib1618: I have no idea there of high, high will be
2016-03-17 17:17:46 fib1618: the sector is on fire
2016-03-17 17:18:03 fib1618: up and through +2250 on the MCSUM today
2016-03-17 17:18:08 fib1618: let me check the historic data
2016-03-17 17:18:20 thespookyone: The Fed is ordering it right up, where can money be put?
2016-03-17 17:18:55 fib1618: the highest point is May of 2013 around +2750
2016-03-17 17:19:18 fib1618:'s all about yield
2016-03-17 17:19:23 fib1618: as simple as that
2016-03-17 17:19:45 fib1618: this why the NYSE Preferred A/D line continues to make new all time highs week after week
2016-03-17 17:19:55 fib1618: you got the equity of a stock
2016-03-17 17:20:12 fib1618: and a high yield while you wait
2016-03-17 17:20:25 fib1618: so...
2016-03-17 17:20:35 fib1618: things continue to look more and more bullish
2016-03-17 17:20:53 fib1618: and if we can get the MCO's to take out last Friday's high points
2016-03-17 17:21:02 fib1618: this thing has the opportunity to really make a run
2016-03-17 17:21:13 fib1618: and this would extend probably into June (!)
2016-03-17 17:21:54 fib1618: I think I read somewhere that Tom McClellan was looking for an April low
2016-03-17 17:22:10 fib1618: if we take out last Friday's MCO highs
2016-03-17 17:22:20 fib1618: geez...I don't know
2016-03-17 17:22:38 fib1618: the MCSUM are already showing bullish action
2016-03-17 17:22:49 fib1618: with the only real problem coming with the NASDAQ
2016-03-17 17:23:03 fib1618: but if money is chasing yield
2016-03-17 17:23:12 fib1618: maybe the NASDAQ growth issues don't matter least at the onset
2016-03-17 17:23:18 fib1618: call it a larger rotation of funds
2016-03-17 17:23:37 fib1618: and once easier money has found its way into growth
2016-03-17 17:23:44 fib1618: then we'll see a bit of catch up
2016-03-17 17:23:48 fib1618: interesting times
2016-03-17 17:24:09 fib1618: OBV's
2016-03-17 17:24:39 fib1618: CVI's are elevated, but not climactic
2016-03-17 17:24:46 fib1618: STVO's are "overbought"
2016-03-17 17:24:54 fib1618: as are the VTO's
2016-03-17 17:25:07 fib1618: but with the high "overbought" imbalance in the MCSUM's
2016-03-17 17:25:17 fib1618: we'll only to "correct on the fly" now
2016-03-17 17:25:48 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .98
2016-03-17 17:26:00 fib1618: Open 10 at .99
2016-03-17 17:26:05 fib1618: wow...did that air out fast!
2016-03-17 17:26:15 fib1618: that's bullish
2016-03-17 17:26:32 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.27
2016-03-17 17:26:41 fib1618: Open 10 at .94
2016-03-17 17:26:56 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.25
2016-03-17 17:27:08 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2016-03-17 17:27:28 fib1618: so...
2016-03-17 17:27:32 fib1618: what's not to like?
2016-03-17 17:27:52 fib1618: yes, there are some chuck holes in the pavement
2016-03-17 17:28:07 fib1618: but if the buyers bring in the big guns now
2016-03-17 17:28:29 fib1618: we'll going to see this current rally extend for a while
2016-03-17 17:29:05 fib1618: watch 21,250 on the Wilshire 5000
2016-03-17 17:29:19 fib1618: that's important trendline resistance
2016-03-17 17:29:47 fib1618: lots of potential here
2016-03-17 17:29:59 fib1618: but, boy, I would love to see a rest
2016-03-17 17:30:08 fib1618: just don't know if we'll get one now
2016-03-17 17:30:26 fib1618: getting the feeling that there is a lot of top picking going on right now
2016-03-17 17:30:34 fib1618: could be OPEX too
2016-03-17 17:30:43 fib1618: futures went off the board at the close
2016-03-17 17:31:10 fib1618: volume is likely to be huge in the morning given how things bottomed in February and the hard reversal there after
2016-03-17 17:31:41 fib1618: we'll have to wait and see
2016-03-17 17:32:11 fib1618: but this constant improvement has a very bullish vibe to it
2016-03-17 17:32:20 fib1618: and we'll go with that until proven otherwise
2016-03-17 17:32:24 fib1618: anything else?
2016-03-17 17:33:03 fib1618: nice surprises in the sectors
2016-03-17 17:33:23 fib1618: the utilities have been a great trade since the triangle breakout
2016-03-17 17:33:39 fib1618: and even better
2016-03-17 17:33:48 fib1618: very few, if any, are talking about it
2016-03-17 17:34:51 fib1618: I mean
2016-03-17 17:35:11 fib1618: it's hard to find a time when the utility average up 12% in 2 months
2016-03-17 17:35:48 fib1618: oh...guess what?
2016-03-17 17:35:57 fib1618: Dow Utilities are at all time highs
2016-03-17 17:36:21 fib1618: and when was the last time we've a bear market when the utilities were leading the Transports and Industrials?
2016-03-17 17:36:24 fib1618: never
2016-03-17 17:36:59 fib1618: at least none that I remember
2016-03-17 17:37:07 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-03-17 17:37:12 fib1618: I'm going to take my leave
2016-03-17 17:37:18 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend
2016-03-17 17:37:25 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2016-03-17 17:37:27 fib1618: good night

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