All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm

Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,558
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-03-17 15:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-03-17 16:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-03-17 16:00:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Very well-you?
2011-03-17 16:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: working for a living...living for the working
2011-03-17 16:00:31 [Message] lard -> Chat: very good, thanks
2011-03-17 16:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got my radiation suit today...all ready for tomorrow
2011-03-17 16:01:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2011-03-17 16:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions, comments, or words of wisdom???
2011-03-17 16:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did we rally today...let me check
2011-03-17 16:02:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: how likely is the MCO to break the declining tops line on this bounce?
2011-03-17 16:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew...finally
2011-03-17 16:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too likely
2011-03-17 16:02:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2011-03-17 16:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will probably break it on the 4th wave of one higher degree
2011-03-17 16:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the "inside" wave
2011-03-17 16:02:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah
2011-03-17 16:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the objective here is for a snapback to what was previous horizontal support
2011-03-17 16:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get to the charts I'll give you a guideline
2011-03-17 16:03:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: pretty nice construction on the wave-was great walking through it with you-thanks
2011-03-17 16:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: np
2011-03-17 16:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we didn't do was measure the inside series objectives
2011-03-17 16:04:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: right!
2011-03-17 16:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we have time later I'll try to get to it
2011-03-17 16:04:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sweet
2011-03-17 16:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-03-17 16:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we finally got our bounce higher on the CO NYSE breadth MCO
2011-03-17 16:06:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is probably our flag point moving forward
2011-03-17 16:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who don't know
2011-03-17 16:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reference of a "flag" is akin to when a mountain climber posts a flag at the top of his climb
2011-03-17 16:06:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a reference point for later comparisons
2011-03-17 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in our instance
2011-03-17 16:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the extreme of the decline from which we will be able to measure divergent structures that will appear later on
2011-03-17 16:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also is the point in which we use to determine if a new deeper sequence of money flow is either leaving or moving into the market
2011-03-17 16:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the confirmation of the flag will come once we break above the short term declining tops line that is currently controlling the pattern
2011-03-17 16:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-03-17 16:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have now crossed below the +250 level on our way to the zero line
2011-03-17 16:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price structure wise
2011-03-17 16:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we look to be etching out a quick triangle before moving to lower price lows
2011-03-17 16:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during this process
2011-03-17 16:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see our first divergent structure measured against yesterday's extreme in the MCO
2011-03-17 16:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may not be all that deep
2011-03-17 16:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will help reinforce the current count idea that we played around with yesterday
2011-03-17 16:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if true to form
2011-03-17 16:11:26 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: Hi Fib, I was impressed with the wave count you gave last night. I think it was spot on. How did conclude that we were in 3 down and that we had had a series of 1s and 2s before that? I am trying to learn here
2011-03-17 16:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the early part of next week should be more of a consolidation time for the higher degree fourth wave to play out before moving to one more low to complete the structure
2011-03-17 16:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aren't we all?
2011-03-17 16:11:58 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-03-17 16:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key to third waves are two fold
2011-03-17 16:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what are they?
2011-03-17 16:12:27 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: extreme oscillator readings and break of support and resistance?
2011-03-17 16:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what is it that we see during third wave structures as far as breadth and volume are concerned?
2011-03-17 16:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, and yes
2011-03-17 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see the best in both breadth and volume extremes during third waves
2011-03-17 16:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO's moving to new lows then
2011-03-17 16:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with the volume data
2011-03-17 16:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty easy call
2011-03-17 16:13:21 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: But how about the series of 1s and 2s?
2011-03-17 16:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: third waves also have the personality of traders acknowledging the direction of the trend
2011-03-17 16:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "throw in the towel" mind set
2011-03-17 16:14:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the series was also the best interpretation because of the structure of the price pattern
2011-03-17 16:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you give me 2 minutes I can mark up a chart
2011-03-17 16:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe as we're going over the internal Fib sequences later on
2011-03-17 16:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2011-03-17 16:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we had our bounce higher from highly "oversold" levels
2011-03-17 16:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...Lew
2011-03-17 16:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the situation
2011-03-17 16:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 4th wave confirmations come when the MCO is able to move above the level from where the 2nd wave sequence had their own extremes
2011-03-17 16:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2011-03-17 16:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that looks to be the -25 level
2011-03-17 16:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case, then the declining tops line will probably be broken in order to do this
2011-03-17 16:18:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: right
2011-03-17 16:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger second wave extreme in the MCO is at the last peak above the zero line at the +25 level
2011-03-17 16:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be the area to look for next week
2011-03-17 16:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from there, one more move back below the zero line should provide the necessary divergence to call the 5 wave structure complete
2011-03-17 16:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2011-03-17 16:19:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-03-17 16:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth plurality then should be fairly strong during the initiation of the larger 4th wave
2011-03-17 16:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of short covering
2011-03-17 16:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: massive
2011-03-17 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how will you know if it's short covering?
2011-03-17 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one indicator that we use
2011-03-17 16:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be the TRIN
2011-03-17 16:21:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: tiny trin works for me
2011-03-17 16:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you should see during that cover short will be very low TRIN numbers
2011-03-17 16:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe in the .40 area or lower
2011-03-17 16:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would then be deemed as "too far, too fast"
2011-03-17 16:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like being shot out of a cannon
2011-03-17 16:22:45 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: Fib, can you repeat the thing about the -25 level. Don't think I got that...
2011-03-17 16:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then once the energy that pushed you skyward leaves you, you fall back to earth quickly
2011-03-17 16:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every point on the MCO is an extreme in the direction of money flow
2011-03-17 16:23:24 [Message] tracca -> Chat: as the MCO moves back below the zero line by making a higher low "the divergence" are we expecting the prices to make a higher low too?
2011-03-17 16:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each spike then tells us the amount of energy that moved either into or out of the market that allowed the price pattern to move in this same direction
2011-03-17 16:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no Tracca
2011-03-17 16:24:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: divergence is between price and the MCO (or any other oscillator tool that measures momentum)
2011-03-17 16:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's all based on closing data
2011-03-17 16:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a specific point in time in which to compare
2011-03-17 16:24:51 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Got it.
2011-03-17 16:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this goes under the same category as the flag
2011-03-17 16:24:57 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: The -25 level was the low in the 1's and 2's series, right?
2011-03-17 16:25:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a point of reference
2011-03-17 16:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the -25 level was the internal momentum peak of the second internal 2nd wave before the collapse
2011-03-17 16:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this same degree fourth wave would only need to move above this extreme to show that the balance of power was starting to shift
2011-03-17 16:26:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: love seeing how those levels set up, thanks
2011-03-17 16:26:18 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: OK. I see
2011-03-17 16:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the willing sellers (in this case) were covering positions or going long because they believed that much of any downside risk was starting to abate
2011-03-17 16:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything here is based on extremes
2011-03-17 16:26:56 [Message] tracca -> Chat: So, we expect MCO to go as high as +25 early next week, and that will trigger a new sell-off to go deeper.
2011-03-17 16:27:10 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: But if this plays out I would think that prices would need to move up more than the usual .382 retracement of wave 3?
2011-03-17 16:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...not exactly tracca
2011-03-17 16:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slow down
2011-03-17 16:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tracca first
2011-03-17 16:27:30 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: OK Sorry
2011-03-17 16:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem
2011-03-17 16:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm happy for the interaction
2011-03-17 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't call the word "trigger" when we're talking about shifts of "opinion" as measured by money flow
2011-03-17 16:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you have abrupt short covering rally's
2011-03-17 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a sort of vacuum is created that needs to be filled before the pattern can attempt to find a structural bottom from which it can build on
2011-03-17 16:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important to remember the concept here that we are ALWAYS in a bear market
2011-03-17 16:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the default direction of the market
2011-03-17 16:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why when the market declines, it can do so with a lot of vigor since the base in which was built to move against this default has collapsed enough to where this same easier direction can once again assert itself
2011-03-17 16:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why as a technician the more difficult work comes in being "a bull"
2011-03-17 16:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for you need to have a structural base, supported by a favorable monetary policy, in order for equity prices to be bid higher
2011-03-17 16:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without these two main components of an advancing price structure, you have none
2011-03-17 16:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too far, and too fast moves create a void that will need to filled
2011-03-17 16:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is the time in which when they are filled where we get all of the unwilling traders to commit leaving basically no one to drive prices in that same direction (in this case, down)
2011-03-17 16:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the market has an easier time declining instead of advancing (based more on human nature as it's far easier to panic than it is to embrace)
2011-03-17 16:34:27 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-03-17 16:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these blow offs of trend tend to be quite volatile
2011-03-17 16:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does that make sense Tracca?
2011-03-17 16:34:50 [Message] tracca -> Chat: yes
2011-03-17 16:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...back to Tonny
2011-03-17 16:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look again at the question
2011-03-17 16:35:24 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: Thanks Fib. Appreciate your time and energy
2011-03-17 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price and the internals do not move in lock step with each other
2011-03-17 16:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each one has their specific function and you can not put a number on breadth plurality statistics in relation to what price will do because of it
2011-03-17 16:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can have a guideline
2011-03-17 16:36:26 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: I know. It just seems that the MCO has a long way to travel to get to the +25 level
2011-03-17 16:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the position of the MCSUM (for example)
2011-03-17 16:36:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no it doesn't really
2011-03-17 16:37:05 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: OK. sorry for interrupting
2011-03-17 16:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the MCO has its mathematical basis on EMA's
2011-03-17 16:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: np
2011-03-17 16:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we're dealing with EMA's
2011-03-17 16:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the current number has a higher weighting factor than those who are towards the other end of the average and are about to drop off
2011-03-17 16:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the numbers are not treated equally like a SMA
2011-03-17 16:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2011-03-17 16:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO can only go so far before we see a snapback
2011-03-17 16:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why it becomes harder and harder for the MCO to show higher extremes above or below the zero line on a comparable basis
2011-03-17 16:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-03-17 16:38:45 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: OK. Makes good sense. How deep a wave 4 retracement do you envision?
2011-03-17 16:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-03-17 16:39:00 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: Sorry
2011-03-17 16:39:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCO is at the zero line
2011-03-17 16:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has been above the zero line for a prolonged period
2011-03-17 16:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any negative plurality will be accentuated initially and the MCO will dive south in a "bigger than average way"
2011-03-17 16:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's say we have 4:1 negative breadth at the zero line
2011-03-17 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it would have a reading of...let's say... -35 from the zero line
2011-03-17 16:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the deeper the MCO goes
2011-03-17 16:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this breadth plurality won't be as heavy on the pattern
2011-03-17 16:41:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another 4:1 negative then would take us only... to a -60 instead of doubling the -35 to -70
2011-03-17 16:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another 4:1 day after that will only move the MCO to a -75
2011-03-17 16:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...because we're dealing with EMA's
2011-03-17 16:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the deeper the MCO goes to an extreme, the more energy is needed for it to keep coming up with bigger and bigger extremes in the pattern
2011-03-17 16:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why sometimes you'll look at the MCO when it's, let's say -60
2011-03-17 16:42:34 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: So basically a number of 1:1 days could take it back to the zero line almost
2011-03-17 16:42:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and breadth was slightly negative for the day
2011-03-17 16:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the MCO was either unchanged or higher
2011-03-17 16:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...let me check what we need to get back to the zero line...one moment
2011-03-17 16:43:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need 2980 net advancing issues over declining issues tomorrow to get back to the zero line
2011-03-17 16:44:09 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: That is quite a bit
2011-03-17 16:44:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with just over 3300 stocks that trade every day on the NYSE this doesn't seem doable tomorrow
2011-03-17 16:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and every stock would have to trade...which they don't
2011-03-17 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-03-17 16:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a zero point change tomorrow
2011-03-17 16:44:53 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: But if we trace out a triangle over a number of days it could be done maybe
2011-03-17 16:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need 359 net DECLINING issues over advancers to do this
2011-03-17 16:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember too that we are on the "inside track" here
2011-03-17 16:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tends to take that much less in the way of time to unwind
2011-03-17 16:45:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, how bout to raise it to say, -25 LOL?
2011-03-17 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would have to guess at the Lew
2011-03-17 16:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we're at a -54
2011-03-17 16:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and getting to zero takes 2980
2011-03-17 16:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about half of that?
2011-03-17 16:46:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1490
2011-03-17 16:46:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice, thanks
2011-03-17 16:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-03-17 16:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today we had 2232 advancers and 819 decliners on the NYSE
2011-03-17 16:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a total of 3051 issues traded (plus any unchanged issues - which were 85)
2011-03-17 16:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the difference there between advancers and decliners was 1413 issues
2011-03-17 16:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so another day like today breadth wise would suffice
2011-03-17 16:48:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool
2011-03-17 16:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now you have your blueprint
2011-03-17 16:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you don't need a computer to help you
2011-03-17 16:49:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks, you know I trade even the little turns
2011-03-17 16:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or what the MCO is doing intraday
2011-03-17 16:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know
2011-03-17 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cast iron stomach you have
2011-03-17 16:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mine is lined with ulcers...no thank you
2011-03-17 16:50:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: in a way, but I hold overnite much less-a bit nicer right now
2011-03-17 16:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overnight trading is a whole different kettle of fish
2011-03-17 16:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything can happen
2011-03-17 16:50:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the thrust here is strictly cash market, NYSE hours
2011-03-17 16:50:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when I was young, I traded commodities-I sure don't have the stomach for that now!
2011-03-17 16:51:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: commodities
2011-03-17 16:51:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a process
2011-03-17 16:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2011-03-17 16:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some would say, and they would be right, that stocks are commodities
2011-03-17 16:51:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: true
2011-03-17 16:51:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you just have more information to work with
2011-03-17 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which can be a blessing as well as a curse
2011-03-17 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did I answer everyone's questions?
2011-03-17 16:52:26 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: So fib, what kind of retracement do you expect in this blue print. I how deep a wave 4 retracement would be likely?
2011-03-17 16:52:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: super!
2011-03-17 16:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will get to that in about 30 minutes Tonny
2011-03-17 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2011-03-17 16:52:51 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: OK. Fair enough
2011-03-17 16:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also bounced higher today
2011-03-17 16:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now within striking distance of snapping back to what used to be horizontal support
2011-03-17 16:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have also moved above the accelerated declining tops line today as well
2011-03-17 16:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the center point, the worse part or wave 3 is behind us
2011-03-17 16:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that's left now is the mop up
2011-03-17 16:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: confirmation of a flag formation will come once we move above the very last spike up from earlier this week
2011-03-17 16:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is digging deeper into negative territory
2011-03-17 16:56:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it does at our first potential stopping point tomorrow...the -250 level
2011-03-17 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any sharp break below that, and the -500 level would be next on the radar
2011-03-17 16:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice spike low in the NDX breadth MCO
2011-03-17 16:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since it's as deep as it is
2011-03-17 16:57:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to go ahead and call it our flag
2011-03-17 16:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still need to break above the previous spike made earlier this week to confirm
2011-03-17 16:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's a pretty good bet that this will take place within the next couple of days
2011-03-17 16:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have continue to remind ourselves that this was only a much needed technical bounce
2011-03-17 16:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and NOTHING has changed with respect to what got us here
2011-03-17 16:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Japan remains a very fluid and volatile situation
2011-03-17 16:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...yea
2011-03-17 17:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just last night I saw some "scientist" (don't remember his name) but he's predicting the next shoe to drop (our discussion from Tuesday) this Saturday in Southern California based on a couple of interesting concepts...one being tidal movements which will be at the highest levels in several years
2011-03-17 17:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether this comes to fruition or not isn't the point
2011-03-17 17:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the point though is that as long as the masses hear this kind of thing, they're not likely to embrace putting money in the market any time soon
2011-03-17 17:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: part of the 3rd wave psychology
2011-03-17 17:01:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is good to know that even though nothing has changed, we did finally get the technical bounce we were looking for today
2011-03-17 17:02:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice bounce as well on the SPX breadth MCO
2011-03-17 17:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, that's pretty much going to be the story today...so let me take a more cursory view and report anything out of the unusual
2011-03-17 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...the MID remains in its consolidation...amazing
2011-03-17 17:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...pretty much the same
2011-03-17 17:05:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it's gonna SMOKE when we turn, eh?
2011-03-17 17:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next technical expectation here is to establish our flag points
2011-03-17 17:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will only be done once the last little spikes higher earlier this week are taken out
2011-03-17 17:06:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once these are taken out
2011-03-17 17:06:24 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: on the MCO?
2011-03-17 17:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a high probability that the extremes of yesterday will hold moving forward
2011-03-17 17:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes Tonny
2011-03-17 17:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Monday's spike
2011-03-17 17:07:11 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: Yes, Got it
2011-03-17 17:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the NYSE breadth MCO...the -25 level
2011-03-17 17:07:26 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-03-17 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the volume MCO's
2011-03-17 17:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today's rally was very timid
2011-03-17 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very technical in nature
2011-03-17 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure that the TRIN numbers will not be too low...maybe .60 or .70
2011-03-17 17:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see in a moment
2011-03-17 17:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call it "profit taking" for now
2011-03-17 17:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking a look at the CVI's
2011-03-17 17:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's another indicator that shows us if we have a large degree of short covering or not
2011-03-17 17:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how there was basically nothing but up volume today that forced this indicator to go from a highly "oversold" state to that of being close to balanced in one day
2011-03-17 17:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: basically then...all today was was short covering
2011-03-17 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no new money came in
2011-03-17 17:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we usually get in fourth waves
2011-03-17 17:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why they seem to "come out of the blue"
2011-03-17 17:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (at least that what the average Joe will say since nothing has changed and the market went higher)
2011-03-17 17:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain "oversold"
2011-03-17 17:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's just as well as
2011-03-17 17:14:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .65
2011-03-17 17:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so pretty much expected
2011-03-17 17:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 still highly "oversold" at 1.21
2011-03-17 17:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .93
2011-03-17 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you know where the short covering was
2011-03-17 17:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.18
2011-03-17 17:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .94
2011-03-17 17:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.23
2011-03-17 17:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we had some harder selling in the AMEX it would seem
2011-03-17 17:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-03-17 17:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we finally got our bounce
2011-03-17 17:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the backdrop still in question
2011-03-17 17:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with lack of conviction of today's bounce
2011-03-17 17:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain on guard for possible lower lows in the MCO at this time
2011-03-17 17:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this was just a "catch our breath" kind of day
2011-03-17 17:17:23 [Message] tracca -> Chat: how far upwards can this bounce continue on the indexes?
2011-03-17 17:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for tomorrow, the bulls need to step up a little more in order to feel comfortable that we've made a flag point in the MCO
2011-03-17 17:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting there
2011-03-17 17:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-03-17 17:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any other questions or comments (besides price objectives)
2011-03-17 17:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...what did we have yesterday?
2011-03-17 17:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had one objective of 1234
2011-03-17 17:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one at 1191?
2011-03-17 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I forget
2011-03-17 17:19:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I was thinking we might get a deep B on this ABC up, due to today's weak nature-comment?
2011-03-17 17:19:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 1195
2011-03-17 17:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the analogy
2011-03-17 17:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you go to the shore line
2011-03-17 17:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the water comes up the shore 5 feet in, it's going to go out with the same degree of momentum
2011-03-17 17:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you slosh your arm in a bathtub full of water one way, and then take it out, the water will move in the opposite direction with (generally) the same amount of energy
2011-03-17 17:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's move up did NOT have the same degree of energy to what pushed lower it in the first place
2011-03-17 17:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to expect more isn't reasonable
2011-03-17 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it provides more...then it becomes a reasonable expectation on how far this push in energy will take prices in this same direction
2011-03-17 17:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can NOT assume things that don't have the necessary foundation for it to occur
2011-03-17 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can not move lower unless money moves in that direction first
2011-03-17 17:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the same holds true on the upside
2011-03-17 17:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although this may all look chaotic
2011-03-17 17:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a great deal of order here...
2011-03-17 17:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully in the next 15 minutes will actually see this order
2011-03-17 17:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: brb...I'm going to mark up a chart
2011-03-17 17:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...it was 1234 and 1195...brb
2011-03-17 17:25:06 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: Fib, I have a last question (sorry ): The Fibonacci levels you mentioned yesterday were set on SPX. How can we know what index is the best to look at when setting up these targets for the wave patterns? E.g. could it not have been better to set the price objectives using the NYSE Comp index?
2011-03-17 17:26:35 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: I.e. make the Fibonacci extension calculations using the NYSE Comp instead of the SPX
2011-03-17 17:27:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you trading the NYSE pricewatcher?
2011-03-17 17:27:20 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: I am using it for my setups, yes
2011-03-17 17:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: uploading now...one moment
2011-03-17 17:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it doesn't really matter what index you use to calculate these relationships, but it's best to do so with the index you feel most comfortable with
2011-03-17 17:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before I show this chart
2011-03-17 17:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to stress that it may not be the "preferred" interpretation only because that we don't have our MCO flags set as yet and that we still have several variables not know at this juncture
2011-03-17 17:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/elliottspx031711.png
2011-03-17 17:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would now appear that we have a nice series working here
2011-03-17 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we have finished the POR point of the pattern that being iii of 3 of (3)
2011-03-17 17:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we're in iv of 3 of (3)
2011-03-17 17:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which can take less than hours to finish up
2011-03-17 17:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact...it may have been complete today at the close
2011-03-17 17:36:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as each sequential higher degree of trend unfolds
2011-03-17 17:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer they will take in time to trace out
2011-03-17 17:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being that we in the center point of the emotional move
2011-03-17 17:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave v of 3 of (3) could start to take place as soon as the open tomorrow
2011-03-17 17:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as Monday's open which would allow for our lack of volume dynamic seen today to work itself out
2011-03-17 17:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that we have a basis to work from
2011-03-17 17:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's calculate
2011-03-17 17:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first...
2011-03-17 17:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the objectives given yesterday were based on the pattern of (1) and (2) (in blue)
2011-03-17 17:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see by following the price chart with a close only format
2011-03-17 17:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we had a simple Elliott flat for wave (2)
2011-03-17 17:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: marked in red as A-B-C
2011-03-17 17:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each degree of trend is marked by color
2011-03-17 17:39:09 [Message] manuj -> Chat: fib - for those of us who do not know Elliott wave - is there an easier way to understand this?
2011-03-17 17:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pink builds on green that builds on blue
2011-03-17 17:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I'm attempted to do that now
2011-03-17 17:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the bottom line
2011-03-17 17:39:43 [Message] manuj -> Chat: OK sorry. please continue
2011-03-17 17:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott wave is a simple way to "label" the structure of a price pattern
2011-03-17 17:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the direction of the trend, no matter what the degree it might be (hourly, daily, weekly, monthly) are labeled in a numerical sequence
2011-03-17 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and corrections are labeled as letters of the alphabet
2011-03-17 17:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without getting too bogged down with the total concept
2011-03-17 17:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that's important here is that the labeling shows that the current trend is down
2011-03-17 17:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: period
2011-03-17 17:41:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no sense in getting into the particulars
2011-03-17 17:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-03-17 17:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like any price structure
2011-03-17 17:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: their rhythms are based on...ummm...harmonic structures if you will
2011-03-17 17:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like a drum, a bass, a rhythm, and a lead...all need to work cohesively for a trend to not only develop but also "play out"
2011-03-17 17:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the key here is to "pick up the rhythm so you pick up the beat"
2011-03-17 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what Elliott strives towards is a way to label this same beat as it would be the language of musical notes on lined paper
2011-03-17 17:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that's out of the way
2011-03-17 17:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's get to the numbers
2011-03-17 17:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we discussed yesterday were price objectives based on the 1 and 2 in blue
2011-03-17 17:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: within this same 1 and 2 there are smaller harmonic waves that provide the structure and rhythm for this same larger structure...an underlying tone, if you will
2011-03-17 17:45:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we were to measure what these lesser degree "waves" project to
2011-03-17 17:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should all work together to produce balance and structure to the entire pattern
2011-03-17 17:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here goes
2011-03-17 17:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 1 and 2 in green
2011-03-17 17:46:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 1 transversed 21 SPX points
2011-03-17 17:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1.618 x 21 points gives us a objective of 34 points
2011-03-17 17:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...how about that...21 point...and then 34 points...both Fibonacci numbers
2011-03-17 17:48:35 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-03-17 17:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 34 points from the top of wave 2 (in green) would give us a downside objective of 1288
2011-03-17 17:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that was breached like it was in the higher degree count
2011-03-17 17:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where we went to all the way up to 4.236
2011-03-17 17:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...what do you know?
2011-03-17 17:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be 88 points (another Fibonacci number!)
2011-03-17 17:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you take that away from the top of wave 2 (in green)
2011-03-17 17:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you get...
2011-03-17 17:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ready?
2011-03-17 17:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: drum roll please
2011-03-17 17:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-03-17 17:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1234
2011-03-17 17:50:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2011-03-17 17:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: exactly the objective of the larger degree of trend
2011-03-17 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (you couldn't make this kind of stuff up)
2011-03-17 17:51:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just unreal
2011-03-17 17:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here we have two degrees of trend pointing to the same exact number
2011-03-17 17:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's a pretty good bet that's where we're going to
2011-03-17 17:51:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: big move
2011-03-17 17:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and would complete 3 of (3)
2011-03-17 17:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...we want to know what the upside is after today's bounce
2011-03-17 17:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2011-03-17 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not going to get that from the green or blue objectives...that would have to come from the lesser degree pink labeling
2011-03-17 17:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-03-17 17:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what the wave 3 projects to first
2011-03-17 17:53:40 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: What was the calculation from the bigger degree of trend that also pointed to 1234?
2011-03-17 17:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 1 traveled 27 points
2011-03-17 17:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tonny - wave 1 times 4.236
2011-03-17 17:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the first two degrees liked that compliment...let's multiply 27 x 4.236 first
2011-03-17 17:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be 114 points
2011-03-17 17:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would come out to....
2011-03-17 17:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: drum roll please....
2011-03-17 17:55:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: jeez
2011-03-17 17:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-03-17 17:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1190
2011-03-17 17:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we bounced today
2011-03-17 17:55:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be the ultimate objective
2011-03-17 17:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the higher degree of trend is looking for 1195
2011-03-17 17:56:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or so
2011-03-17 17:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go back now and see if we find anything consistent with the current bounce
2011-03-17 17:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1.618 would be 44 points from the top of pink 2
2011-03-17 17:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would give us a downside of....
2011-03-17 17:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: drum roll please
2011-03-17 17:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ...
2011-03-17 17:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-03-17 17:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1260
2011-03-17 17:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we bounced off from 1257
2011-03-17 17:57:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-03-17 17:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a pretty good assumption that pink 3 is done
2011-03-17 17:58:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now in pink 4
2011-03-17 17:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using .382 as the usual and customary
2011-03-17 17:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be 18 points on the upside
2011-03-17 17:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...
2011-03-17 17:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1275
2011-03-17 17:59:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed at 1274
2011-03-17 17:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....pink 4 could be done
2011-03-17 17:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone lost?
2011-03-17 17:59:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-03-17 17:59:40 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-03-17 17:59:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no,LOL
2011-03-17 17:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: easy Lew
2011-03-17 18:00:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hehe
2011-03-17 18:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can see you jumping out of your chair!
2011-03-17 18:00:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: too funny
2011-03-17 18:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's amazing
2011-03-17 18:00:32 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: The 1234 was pointed to as the objective of the bigger blue trend as well, right? what was the calculation there?
2011-03-17 18:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...here's what we look for with our Elliott hats
2011-03-17 18:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 1234 on blue was...I would have to review the chat...let me look at it again
2011-03-17 18:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2.618 times the length of blue wave 1
2011-03-17 18:01:46 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: Sure. thanks!
2011-03-17 18:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now for everyone else
2011-03-17 18:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the bottom line
2011-03-17 18:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott wise
2011-03-17 18:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have minimally finished our bounce here within an accelerated downtrend
2011-03-17 18:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's unlikely that we'll see a higher close from here before taking out yesterday's closing lows
2011-03-17 18:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could consolidate here before doing that, accelerate at the open tomorrow and close near these same levels, or we can just move lower at the get go
2011-03-17 18:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we know is
2011-03-17 18:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have relieved much of the compression created by this same acceleration lower
2011-03-17 18:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can now continue to move in this same direction and finish up the pattern as the internals continue to suggest
2011-03-17 18:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this period will continue to be quite volatile
2011-03-17 18:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would seem that 1234 cash is an important point in this same pattern where we should look for a multi reversal of this same trend
2011-03-17 18:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this allows for another 40 SPX points to the downside
2011-03-17 18:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could happen in a day
2011-03-17 18:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a couple
2011-03-17 18:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if I were a betting man
2011-03-17 18:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would say that we will probably hit this target while I'm in Vegas next week
2011-03-17 18:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to take away from this little exercise is this
2011-03-17 18:06:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, we have to hit the big one before you leave Las Vegas, LOL
2011-03-17 18:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these reoccurring Fib numbers provide a way to understand the rhythm factor we talk about
2011-03-17 18:07:14 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: But we still need to take out the MCO high of the purple 2, for the purple 4 to have completed, right? Or is the purple trend on a lower degree than the one measured by the MCO?
2011-03-17 18:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they are work with each other creating an "impulsive" coherence
2011-03-17 18:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each degree of "color" has its own objectives to confirm its labeling
2011-03-17 18:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pink four would have to take out the comparable pink 2 highs in the MCO
2011-03-17 18:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: green 4 with green 2
2011-03-17 18:08:17 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: That did not happen today I think
2011-03-17 18:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not confirmed it's over
2011-03-17 18:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and although prices may not move higher from here
2011-03-17 18:08:46 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: I mean the MCO did not move above the level it had at pink 2
2011-03-17 18:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth of market can
2011-03-17 18:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not yet
2011-03-17 18:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...price and breadth work independently
2011-03-17 18:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have their own St. Patrick that they follow
2011-03-17 18:09:36 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-03-17 18:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...breadth tomorrow could be 2:1 to the good
2011-03-17 18:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a major index may close unchanged all dependent on who's making the moves
2011-03-17 18:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...we're dealing with weighted averages here
2011-03-17 18:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IBM could be down 2 points, and it's 10% of the Dow weight could even out the bottom 5 weights who are up
2011-03-17 18:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2011-03-17 18:12:06 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: Yes, so if we have a breadth up day tomorrow, it could be a good point to short eventually?
2011-03-17 18:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who don't get it, don't worry about it
2011-03-17 18:12:18 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-03-17 18:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just follow the bottom line numbers for now
2011-03-17 18:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much so
2011-03-17 18:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have downsides still yet to be fulfilled
2011-03-17 18:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO and MCSUM are supporting these same targets at this time
2011-03-17 18:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is LEADING price
2011-03-17 18:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so fine tune it anyway you feel comfortable
2011-03-17 18:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or just sit back and watch
2011-03-17 18:13:35 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: This was awesome Fib, thanks!
2011-03-17 18:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: np
2011-03-17 18:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always fun to do
2011-03-17 18:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any other questions?
2011-03-17 18:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember we have another chat tomorrow and then we're dark until next Thursday and Friday
2011-03-17 18:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after that...back to regular schedule
2011-03-17 18:14:51 [Message] pricewatcher -> Chat: I could get used to this everyday (night) session
2011-03-17 18:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I used to do this everyday in the old days
2011-03-17 18:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-03-17 18:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take my leave
2011-03-17 18:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great Friday
2011-03-17 18:15:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I still do, thanks for a great chat!
2011-03-17 18:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again tomorrow
2011-03-17 18:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2018 Technical Watch