All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,492
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-03-15 16:00:09 fib1618: good day
2016-03-15 16:00:14 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-03-15 16:02:23 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-03-15 16:04:27 thespookyone: Nope [smile]
2016-03-15 16:04:44 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and then and get started
2016-03-15 16:05:16 fib1618: after moving smartly higher on Friday
2016-03-15 16:05:28 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has since moved sharply to the downside
2016-03-15 16:05:58 fib1618: and closing today with a +16 reading
2016-03-15 16:06:16 fib1618: so though we might get a technical bounce toward the +25 level near term
2016-03-15 16:06:45 fib1618: our next technical expectation is for a zero line test in this MCO...and probably with Friday's OPEX
2016-03-15 16:07:08 fib1618: looking at the CO components
2016-03-15 16:07:26 fib1618: and we see that we also have a snapback in the 10% Trend near the 5% Trend
2016-03-15 16:07:40 fib1618: and this also suggests that we might have a bounce near term as well
2016-03-15 16:08:15 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM itself has now crossed above the +600 level today
2016-03-15 16:08:34 fib1618: so unless the NYSE Composite is closer to +750
2016-03-15 16:08:45 fib1618: we should see an upside continuation in the pattern.
2016-03-15 16:12:07 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-03-15 16:12:20 fib1618: and here we have an identical move in the pattern structure
2016-03-15 16:12:34 fib1618: closing today with a reading of +18
2016-03-15 16:12:41 fib1618: so pretty much in sync there with the CO data
2016-03-15 16:12:51 fib1618: however, as we look at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-03-15 16:13:20 fib1618: it has now reached the upside target of the +750 level today (+753)
2016-03-15 16:13:51 fib1618: so a bounce here may not be needed as this area of natural resistance might be a bit too much to overcome given the longevity of the move
2016-03-15 16:14:16 fib1618: which is close to 2 months now from the mid January lows
2016-03-15 16:15:28 fib1618: though a hesitation in the pattern would do pretty much the same thing, intermediate term wise, on Wednesday
2016-03-15 16:15:34 fib1618: let's see how the other indices are doing
2016-03-15 16:16:01 fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCO has also continued lower from Friday's high point
2016-03-15 16:16:11 fib1618: and now has a reading of +10
2016-03-15 16:16:18 fib1618: so close to the zero line
2016-03-15 16:16:26 fib1618: but some room for further decay
2016-03-15 16:16:30 fib1618: looking at the components
2016-03-15 16:16:40 fib1618: and we see the same configuration as the NYSE data
2016-03-15 16:16:58 fib1618: with the 10% Trend now within striking distance of "kissing" the 5% Trend
2016-03-15 16:17:34 fib1618: also of importance is that Monday's move lower in the NASDAQ MCO broke its rising bottoms line
2016-03-15 16:18:30 fib1618: while the NYSE Composite MCO finished today right on this same line connecting the January/February lows
2016-03-15 16:19:07 fib1618: we'll also note that there was also a break of this same trendline in the NYSE CO MCO
2016-03-15 16:19:31 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2016-03-15 16:19:37 fib1618: and after our zero line bounce from last week
2016-03-15 16:19:59 fib1618: this MCO moved up to the +51 level before moving sharply lower as well
2016-03-15 16:20:11 fib1618: and now has a reading of +19
2016-03-15 16:20:50 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCSUM still has a bit to go to reach the +500 level though with a close today of +425
2016-03-15 16:21:13 fib1618: and taking a cursory view of the MCSUM structure itself
2016-03-15 16:21:58 fib1618: it does seem to be slowing in its rate of ascent as it comes closer to this same +500 level
2016-03-15 16:22:47 fib1618: looking at the SPX breadth MCO
2016-03-15 16:23:21 fib1618: and here we see that it has moved lower to the +26 level
2016-03-15 16:23:30 fib1618: so a technical bounce could be seen near term
2016-03-15 16:23:59 fib1618: the SPX components remain in good shape though
2016-03-15 16:24:44 fib1618: as the SPX breadth MCSUM moved above both natural and pattern resistance at the +750 level on Friday
2016-03-15 16:25:22 fib1618: so we should expect firmness to continue in the pattern structure in what should an attempt to reach the +1000 level
2016-03-15 16:25:53 fib1618: this break above the +750 level should also help contain any price pullbacks that we may see over the next couple of days
2016-03-15 16:26:53 fib1618: so further price gains towards our upside target of around 2050 should continue into the end of the week
2016-03-15 16:27:29 fib1618: looking at the OEX breadth MCSUM though
2016-03-15 16:27:49 fib1618: and it might be a struggle for the 500 basket to make it that far without the support of the top 100
2016-03-15 16:28:27 fib1618: as it has a reading of +482...and just "that much" away from firm resistance at the +500 level
2016-03-15 16:29:09 fib1618: now on the helpful side of this argument between the OEX and SPX
2016-03-15 16:29:34 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCSUM was able to move above the +500 level today
2016-03-15 16:29:59 fib1618: so the near term forecast is a bit cloudy here...but not foggy
2016-03-15 16:30:31 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO continued sharply lower from last Friday's high point
2016-03-15 16:30:47 fib1618: and now has a reading of +15
2016-03-15 16:31:15 fib1618: we're seeing a lot of teen readings in the MCO's...so at least we're in sync
2016-03-15 16:31:41 fib1618: with the MID components suggesting a near term bounce as soon as Wednesday
2016-03-15 16:37:53 fib1618: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2016-03-15 16:38:05 fib1618: and here we have retraced all the way back down to the zero line
2016-03-15 16:38:15 fib1618: with a reading today of -6
2016-03-15 16:38:19 fib1618: so engine shut down there with the zero line test
2016-03-15 16:38:44 fib1618: and the 10% Trend snapping down to the 5% Trend
2016-03-15 16:38:59 fib1618: suggesting again that a near term technical bounce is likely
2016-03-15 16:39:31 fib1618: with the SML breadth MCSUM finding near term resistance close to the +600 level
2016-03-15 16:39:50 fib1618: closing today at +561
2016-03-15 16:40:45 fib1618: and, finally, the TM breadth MCO rested today at the +14 level
2016-03-15 16:41:10 fib1618: with a TM Component's "kiss" suggesting a bounce
2016-03-15 16:41:45 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCSUM inching ever closer to the +500 level with a reading of +466
2016-03-15 16:42:07 fib1618: so...we're getting pretty much as our blueprint has been suggesting for the last two weeks
2016-03-15 16:42:34 fib1618: with a top beneath a top now apparent on all the breadth MCO's
2016-03-15 16:43:08 fib1618: and the likelihood of another push up in prices still to come that might peak out with this Friday's quarterly OPEX
2016-03-15 16:43:14 fib1618: moving to the volume McClellan's
2016-03-15 16:44:04 fib1618: and we're seeing the same pattern structure in the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's as their breadth cousins
2016-03-15 16:44:23 fib1618: but both remain above the levels seen on the breadth side
2016-03-15 16:44:41 fib1618: this would suggest that we continue to be within a corrective sequence near term...if not a short term topping sequence
2016-03-15 16:44:58 fib1618: and that we should continue to work under those rules for the next couple of days
2016-03-15 16:46:09 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO is also echoing the pattern of the breadth side of the fence
2016-03-15 16:46:50 fib1618: though we remain with a slightly better buoyancy here between the two patterns
2016-03-15 16:47:12 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCSUM moved up and through the +500 level today
2016-03-15 16:47:54 fib1618: with the NDX volume MCO showing good buoyancy in its structure
2016-03-15 16:48:39 fib1618: as it bounced well above its zero line in last week's control attempt by the buyers
2016-03-15 16:49:11 fib1618: the SPX volume MCO finally broke below the mid February lows today
2016-03-15 16:49:41 fib1618: so things look pretty good there in relation to the other index MCO charts
2016-03-15 16:49:59 fib1618: as this will tend to keep prices from moving lower in any important way...at least for now
2016-03-15 16:50:23 fib1618: sort of like having floats on your arms in the deep end of the swimming pool
2016-03-15 16:50:57 fib1618: the OEX volume MCO still remains above its February lows
2016-03-15 16:51:09 fib1618: so this would support the technical idea just presented in the SPX
2016-03-15 16:51:26 fib1618: looks like we're going to make it now to the +250 level
2016-03-15 16:51:38 fib1618: so that's a plus for the next couple of days
2016-03-15 16:52:03 fib1618: same with the Dow volume MCO
2016-03-15 16:52:14 fib1618: as it had a small point change today
2016-03-15 16:52:34 fib1618: so a move to the +500 level on the Dow volume MCSUM is likely
2016-03-15 16:53:08 fib1618: the MID volume MCO still remains above its mid February lows
2016-03-15 16:53:20 fib1618: so that's another plus for the support of the current price uptrend
2016-03-15 16:53:50 fib1618: while the SML breadth MCO has also reached its zero line with a +2 reading
2016-03-15 16:54:04 fib1618: so, here too, a technical bounce is indicated near term
2016-03-15 16:54:38 fib1618: and the TM volume MCSUM moved up and through the +500 level today
2016-03-15 16:54:58 fib1618: so any continuation move before Thursday would allow this indicator to challenge the +750 level
2016-03-15 16:55:01 fib1618: so...
2016-03-15 16:55:08 fib1618: the volume side remains firm
2016-03-15 16:55:22 fib1618: while the breadth side is showing a more narrowing of participation
2016-03-15 16:55:37 fib1618: still, it's not enough to halt the uptrend in progress
2016-03-15 16:56:14 fib1618: only to make a bit harder now to move with the same kind of amplitude that we saw during the 1st half of the month
2016-03-15 16:56:24 fib1618: so...steady as goes it would seem
2016-03-15 16:56:30 fib1618: checking the OBV's
2016-03-15 16:57:00 fib1618: and we'll call the CVI's neutral
2016-03-15 16:57:26 fib1618: the STVO's showing a bit of firmness
2016-03-15 16:58:02 fib1618: and the VTO's still a bit on the "overbought" side, but not too bad considering how much we've gained in a month
2016-03-15 16:58:24 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.01
2016-03-15 16:58:33 fib1618: Open 10 at .86
2016-03-15 16:58:43 fib1618: so now we're moving toward "overbought"
2016-03-15 16:58:56 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .86
2016-03-15 16:59:06 fib1618: Open 10 at .92
2016-03-15 16:59:09 fib1618: so neutral there
2016-03-15 16:59:20 fib1618: TM TRIN at .94
2016-03-15 16:59:29 fib1618: Open 10 at .93
2016-03-15 16:59:34 fib1618: so...
2016-03-15 17:00:03 fib1618: it would seem that the value issues are attracting more money than the growth issues right now
2016-03-15 17:00:23 fib1618: and this might have something to do with this week's quarterly OPEX
2016-03-15 17:01:03 fib1618: in any event
2016-03-15 17:01:36 fib1618: it would appear that the idea shared over the weekend of a choppy price period with a bullish bias remains the best analysis at this time
2016-03-15 17:01:40 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2016-03-15 17:02:58 fib1618: +15
2016-03-15 17:03:04 fib1618: up 5 from the weekend
2016-03-15 17:03:08 fib1618: and continuing to sneak higher
2016-03-15 17:03:10 fib1618: at this rate
2016-03-15 17:03:17 fib1618: we should be at +20 on Thursday
2016-03-15 17:03:33 fib1618: with a reading of +25 giving us our first accumulation signal
2016-03-15 17:03:42 fib1618: but between you and me
2016-03-15 17:04:03 fib1618: my bet is that we'll reach +20 and pull back a bit in prices
2016-03-15 17:04:15 fib1618: and then get the BETS leading prices by early April
2016-03-15 17:04:26 fib1618: and that would be enough to start moving in aggressively
2016-03-15 17:04:27 fib1618: we'll see
2016-03-15 17:04:32 fib1618: anything else?
2016-03-15 17:05:19 fib1618: anything you want an opinion on...anything to share??
2016-03-15 17:06:48 fib1618: OK...then I'm going to close for tonight
2016-03-15 17:06:54 thespookyone: thx
2016-03-15 17:07:08 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days and we'll see how things are going on Thursday
2016-03-15 17:07:18 fib1618: good night

__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch