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Reply with quote  #1 
2016-03-15 16:00:09 fib1618: good day
2016-03-15 16:00:14 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-03-15 16:02:23 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-03-15 16:04:27 thespookyone: Nope [smile]
2016-03-15 16:04:44 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and then and get started
2016-03-15 16:05:16 fib1618: after moving smartly higher on Friday
2016-03-15 16:05:28 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has since moved sharply to the downside
2016-03-15 16:05:58 fib1618: and closing today with a +16 reading
2016-03-15 16:06:16 fib1618: so though we might get a technical bounce toward the +25 level near term
2016-03-15 16:06:45 fib1618: our next technical expectation is for a zero line test in this MCO...and probably with Friday's OPEX
2016-03-15 16:07:08 fib1618: looking at the CO components
2016-03-15 16:07:26 fib1618: and we see that we also have a snapback in the 10% Trend near the 5% Trend
2016-03-15 16:07:40 fib1618: and this also suggests that we might have a bounce near term as well
2016-03-15 16:08:15 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM itself has now crossed above the +600 level today
2016-03-15 16:08:34 fib1618: so unless the NYSE Composite is closer to +750
2016-03-15 16:08:45 fib1618: we should see an upside continuation in the pattern.
2016-03-15 16:12:07 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-03-15 16:12:20 fib1618: and here we have an identical move in the pattern structure
2016-03-15 16:12:34 fib1618: closing today with a reading of +18
2016-03-15 16:12:41 fib1618: so pretty much in sync there with the CO data
2016-03-15 16:12:51 fib1618: however, as we look at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-03-15 16:13:20 fib1618: it has now reached the upside target of the +750 level today (+753)
2016-03-15 16:13:51 fib1618: so a bounce here may not be needed as this area of natural resistance might be a bit too much to overcome given the longevity of the move
2016-03-15 16:14:16 fib1618: which is close to 2 months now from the mid January lows
2016-03-15 16:15:28 fib1618: though a hesitation in the pattern would do pretty much the same thing, intermediate term wise, on Wednesday
2016-03-15 16:15:34 fib1618: let's see how the other indices are doing
2016-03-15 16:16:01 fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCO has also continued lower from Friday's high point
2016-03-15 16:16:11 fib1618: and now has a reading of +10
2016-03-15 16:16:18 fib1618: so close to the zero line
2016-03-15 16:16:26 fib1618: but some room for further decay
2016-03-15 16:16:30 fib1618: looking at the components
2016-03-15 16:16:40 fib1618: and we see the same configuration as the NYSE data
2016-03-15 16:16:58 fib1618: with the 10% Trend now within striking distance of "kissing" the 5% Trend
2016-03-15 16:17:34 fib1618: also of importance is that Monday's move lower in the NASDAQ MCO broke its rising bottoms line
2016-03-15 16:18:30 fib1618: while the NYSE Composite MCO finished today right on this same line connecting the January/February lows
2016-03-15 16:19:07 fib1618: we'll also note that there was also a break of this same trendline in the NYSE CO MCO
2016-03-15 16:19:31 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2016-03-15 16:19:37 fib1618: and after our zero line bounce from last week
2016-03-15 16:19:59 fib1618: this MCO moved up to the +51 level before moving sharply lower as well
2016-03-15 16:20:11 fib1618: and now has a reading of +19
2016-03-15 16:20:50 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCSUM still has a bit to go to reach the +500 level though with a close today of +425
2016-03-15 16:21:13 fib1618: and taking a cursory view of the MCSUM structure itself
2016-03-15 16:21:58 fib1618: it does seem to be slowing in its rate of ascent as it comes closer to this same +500 level
2016-03-15 16:22:47 fib1618: looking at the SPX breadth MCO
2016-03-15 16:23:21 fib1618: and here we see that it has moved lower to the +26 level
2016-03-15 16:23:30 fib1618: so a technical bounce could be seen near term
2016-03-15 16:23:59 fib1618: the SPX components remain in good shape though
2016-03-15 16:24:44 fib1618: as the SPX breadth MCSUM moved above both natural and pattern resistance at the +750 level on Friday
2016-03-15 16:25:22 fib1618: so we should expect firmness to continue in the pattern structure in what should an attempt to reach the +1000 level
2016-03-15 16:25:53 fib1618: this break above the +750 level should also help contain any price pullbacks that we may see over the next couple of days
2016-03-15 16:26:53 fib1618: so further price gains towards our upside target of around 2050 should continue into the end of the week
2016-03-15 16:27:29 fib1618: looking at the OEX breadth MCSUM though
2016-03-15 16:27:49 fib1618: and it might be a struggle for the 500 basket to make it that far without the support of the top 100
2016-03-15 16:28:27 fib1618: as it has a reading of +482...and just "that much" away from firm resistance at the +500 level
2016-03-15 16:29:09 fib1618: now on the helpful side of this argument between the OEX and SPX
2016-03-15 16:29:34 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCSUM was able to move above the +500 level today
2016-03-15 16:29:59 fib1618: so the near term forecast is a bit cloudy here...but not foggy
2016-03-15 16:30:31 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO continued sharply lower from last Friday's high point
2016-03-15 16:30:47 fib1618: and now has a reading of +15
2016-03-15 16:31:15 fib1618: we're seeing a lot of teen readings in the MCO' at least we're in sync
2016-03-15 16:31:41 fib1618: with the MID components suggesting a near term bounce as soon as Wednesday
2016-03-15 16:37:53 fib1618: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2016-03-15 16:38:05 fib1618: and here we have retraced all the way back down to the zero line
2016-03-15 16:38:15 fib1618: with a reading today of -6
2016-03-15 16:38:19 fib1618: so engine shut down there with the zero line test
2016-03-15 16:38:44 fib1618: and the 10% Trend snapping down to the 5% Trend
2016-03-15 16:38:59 fib1618: suggesting again that a near term technical bounce is likely
2016-03-15 16:39:31 fib1618: with the SML breadth MCSUM finding near term resistance close to the +600 level
2016-03-15 16:39:50 fib1618: closing today at +561
2016-03-15 16:40:45 fib1618: and, finally, the TM breadth MCO rested today at the +14 level
2016-03-15 16:41:10 fib1618: with a TM Component's "kiss" suggesting a bounce
2016-03-15 16:41:45 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCSUM inching ever closer to the +500 level with a reading of +466
2016-03-15 16:42:07 fib1618: so...we're getting pretty much as our blueprint has been suggesting for the last two weeks
2016-03-15 16:42:34 fib1618: with a top beneath a top now apparent on all the breadth MCO's
2016-03-15 16:43:08 fib1618: and the likelihood of another push up in prices still to come that might peak out with this Friday's quarterly OPEX
2016-03-15 16:43:14 fib1618: moving to the volume McClellan's
2016-03-15 16:44:04 fib1618: and we're seeing the same pattern structure in the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's as their breadth cousins
2016-03-15 16:44:23 fib1618: but both remain above the levels seen on the breadth side
2016-03-15 16:44:41 fib1618: this would suggest that we continue to be within a corrective sequence near term...if not a short term topping sequence
2016-03-15 16:44:58 fib1618: and that we should continue to work under those rules for the next couple of days
2016-03-15 16:46:09 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO is also echoing the pattern of the breadth side of the fence
2016-03-15 16:46:50 fib1618: though we remain with a slightly better buoyancy here between the two patterns
2016-03-15 16:47:12 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCSUM moved up and through the +500 level today
2016-03-15 16:47:54 fib1618: with the NDX volume MCO showing good buoyancy in its structure
2016-03-15 16:48:39 fib1618: as it bounced well above its zero line in last week's control attempt by the buyers
2016-03-15 16:49:11 fib1618: the SPX volume MCO finally broke below the mid February lows today
2016-03-15 16:49:41 fib1618: so things look pretty good there in relation to the other index MCO charts
2016-03-15 16:49:59 fib1618: as this will tend to keep prices from moving lower in any important least for now
2016-03-15 16:50:23 fib1618: sort of like having floats on your arms in the deep end of the swimming pool
2016-03-15 16:50:57 fib1618: the OEX volume MCO still remains above its February lows
2016-03-15 16:51:09 fib1618: so this would support the technical idea just presented in the SPX
2016-03-15 16:51:26 fib1618: looks like we're going to make it now to the +250 level
2016-03-15 16:51:38 fib1618: so that's a plus for the next couple of days
2016-03-15 16:52:03 fib1618: same with the Dow volume MCO
2016-03-15 16:52:14 fib1618: as it had a small point change today
2016-03-15 16:52:34 fib1618: so a move to the +500 level on the Dow volume MCSUM is likely
2016-03-15 16:53:08 fib1618: the MID volume MCO still remains above its mid February lows
2016-03-15 16:53:20 fib1618: so that's another plus for the support of the current price uptrend
2016-03-15 16:53:50 fib1618: while the SML breadth MCO has also reached its zero line with a +2 reading
2016-03-15 16:54:04 fib1618: so, here too, a technical bounce is indicated near term
2016-03-15 16:54:38 fib1618: and the TM volume MCSUM moved up and through the +500 level today
2016-03-15 16:54:58 fib1618: so any continuation move before Thursday would allow this indicator to challenge the +750 level
2016-03-15 16:55:01 fib1618: so...
2016-03-15 16:55:08 fib1618: the volume side remains firm
2016-03-15 16:55:22 fib1618: while the breadth side is showing a more narrowing of participation
2016-03-15 16:55:37 fib1618: still, it's not enough to halt the uptrend in progress
2016-03-15 16:56:14 fib1618: only to make a bit harder now to move with the same kind of amplitude that we saw during the 1st half of the month
2016-03-15 16:56:24 fib1618: so...steady as goes it would seem
2016-03-15 16:56:30 fib1618: checking the OBV's
2016-03-15 16:57:00 fib1618: and we'll call the CVI's neutral
2016-03-15 16:57:26 fib1618: the STVO's showing a bit of firmness
2016-03-15 16:58:02 fib1618: and the VTO's still a bit on the "overbought" side, but not too bad considering how much we've gained in a month
2016-03-15 16:58:24 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.01
2016-03-15 16:58:33 fib1618: Open 10 at .86
2016-03-15 16:58:43 fib1618: so now we're moving toward "overbought"
2016-03-15 16:58:56 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .86
2016-03-15 16:59:06 fib1618: Open 10 at .92
2016-03-15 16:59:09 fib1618: so neutral there
2016-03-15 16:59:20 fib1618: TM TRIN at .94
2016-03-15 16:59:29 fib1618: Open 10 at .93
2016-03-15 16:59:34 fib1618: so...
2016-03-15 17:00:03 fib1618: it would seem that the value issues are attracting more money than the growth issues right now
2016-03-15 17:00:23 fib1618: and this might have something to do with this week's quarterly OPEX
2016-03-15 17:01:03 fib1618: in any event
2016-03-15 17:01:36 fib1618: it would appear that the idea shared over the weekend of a choppy price period with a bullish bias remains the best analysis at this time
2016-03-15 17:01:40 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2016-03-15 17:02:58 fib1618: +15
2016-03-15 17:03:04 fib1618: up 5 from the weekend
2016-03-15 17:03:08 fib1618: and continuing to sneak higher
2016-03-15 17:03:10 fib1618: at this rate
2016-03-15 17:03:17 fib1618: we should be at +20 on Thursday
2016-03-15 17:03:33 fib1618: with a reading of +25 giving us our first accumulation signal
2016-03-15 17:03:42 fib1618: but between you and me
2016-03-15 17:04:03 fib1618: my bet is that we'll reach +20 and pull back a bit in prices
2016-03-15 17:04:15 fib1618: and then get the BETS leading prices by early April
2016-03-15 17:04:26 fib1618: and that would be enough to start moving in aggressively
2016-03-15 17:04:27 fib1618: we'll see
2016-03-15 17:04:32 fib1618: anything else?
2016-03-15 17:05:19 fib1618: anything you want an opinion on...anything to share??
2016-03-15 17:06:48 fib1618: OK...then I'm going to close for tonight
2016-03-15 17:06:54 thespookyone: thx
2016-03-15 17:07:08 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days and we'll see how things are going on Thursday
2016-03-15 17:07:18 fib1618: good night

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