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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-03-01 16:00:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-03-01 16:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-03-01 16:00:34 [Message] EricD -> Chat: hi
2012-03-01 16:01:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, thx
2012-03-01 16:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still busy here (probably the kiss of death now that I said something )
2012-03-01 16:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-03-01 16:02:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good to see you busy
2012-03-01 16:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it's been steady now for 3 straight weeks
2012-03-01 16:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the first time in years
2012-03-01 16:03:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: NICE- the recovery is now on...
2012-03-01 16:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have you seen the fashions for fall?
2012-03-01 16:04:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no
2012-03-01 16:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: furs...all over the place
2012-03-01 16:04:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow, what does that mean?
2012-03-01 16:04:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of embellishments
2012-03-01 16:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do you think it means?
2012-03-01 16:04:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: money
2012-03-01 16:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and lots of it
2012-03-01 16:04:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sweet, I like money...
2012-03-01 16:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that in fashion people wear what they feel
2012-03-01 16:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you may want to do is check out our Facebook business page
2012-03-01 16:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we show a constant stream of what is being shown for the fall and holiday periods
2012-03-01 16:05:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: embellishments=good for Fib
2012-03-01 16:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2012-03-01 16:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of trimmings
2012-03-01 16:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the garments are not simple
2012-03-01 16:05:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: super
2012-03-01 16:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: colors are also suggesting a positive feel for the period
2012-03-01 16:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: animal related prints as well
2012-03-01 16:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember back in September of last year?
2012-03-01 16:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we were seeing romantic looks for spring?
2012-03-01 16:07:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2012-03-01 16:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggested that the markets were going to have a nice rally?
2012-03-01 16:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2012-03-01 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now...
2012-03-01 16:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's over the top showing richness
2012-03-01 16:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to see it
2012-03-01 16:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it really is amazing
2012-03-01 16:07:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: fashion is like money flow-and I guess the money looks to be flowing there
2012-03-01 16:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would say that half of many lines for the fall have some sort of fur treatment in them
2012-03-01 16:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: collars...cuffs
2012-03-01 16:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: jackets
2012-03-01 16:08:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sounds exciting
2012-03-01 16:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it suggests that people are going to be feeling good and spending money
2012-03-01 16:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least that's what is being represented here
2012-03-01 16:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2012-03-01 16:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2012-03-01 16:09:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: how about this market resiliency-unreal, eh?
2012-03-01 16:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you want information on our Facebook page let me know
2012-03-01 16:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..the MCSUM's are still very high here
2012-03-01 16:09:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'd love to view it
2012-03-01 16:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much of any attempt to turn the tide is still going to be a hard thing to do
2012-03-01 16:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.facebook.com/laceandtrim
2012-03-01 16:10:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx!
2012-03-01 16:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you use Facebook a lot
2012-03-01 16:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you like the page you will get anything posted on your wall
2012-03-01 16:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2012-03-01 16:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Facebook will be converting everything to the Timeline format on March 30th
2012-03-01 16:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you haven't moved over to the new format as yet, you might want to clean things up before you do
2012-03-01 16:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2012-03-01 16:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get DP up and we'll get started
2012-03-01 16:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking near term support on Wednesday and moving to minimal "oversold" levels, the CO NYSE breadth MCO gave us our obligatory bounce higher today
2012-03-01 16:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: primarily on the back of the 10% Trend performing its obligation of snapping back up to its zero line today after breaking below it yesterday
2012-03-01 16:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this break of support also coincided with the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM breaking below the +750 level
2012-03-01 16:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we're going to see some sort of washout here by the bears
2012-03-01 16:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be a good time to see this happen
2012-03-01 16:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the 5% Trend is still above its zero line
2012-03-01 16:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall price pattern will continue to be a choppy trading range
2012-03-01 16:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the CO MCO
2012-03-01 16:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today's bounce also fulfilled a snapback to what was our previous support line on Tuesday
2012-03-01 16:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would then be a great time for the bears to try to push the envelope now
2012-03-01 16:16:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we could see a continuation of a shift in opinion from that of a bullish bias to that of profit taking
2012-03-01 16:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remembering back to our blueprint of the last week or so
2012-03-01 16:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yesterday's breakdown in the MCO has now solidified our trading to that of a hold with appropriate stops applied
2012-03-01 16:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2012-03-01 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the rising bottoms line on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM crosses well below current levels at around the +250 level
2012-03-01 16:18:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a lot of air between there and now
2012-03-01 16:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2012-03-01 16:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that as long as the MCSUM continues to decline and work off its highly "overbought" levels
2012-03-01 16:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers will begin to gain better and better traction to push prices in their direction
2012-03-01 16:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now
2012-03-01 16:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as we remain above the +500 level
2012-03-01 16:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any surprises will continue to be to the upside
2012-03-01 16:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or more to the point
2012-03-01 16:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably the biggest surprises will come with the lack of price decay after what many probably decided was a major sell signal yesterday
2012-03-01 16:20:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which it wasn't
2012-03-01 16:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market does like to tweak its traders from time to time just to keep them guessing
2012-03-01 16:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE composite breadth MCO remains stronger than that of the CO data
2012-03-01 16:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we only broke to a low of around -33 yesterday
2012-03-01 16:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have promptly snapped back to what was our near term support area
2012-03-01 16:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here
2012-03-01 16:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's absolutely no doubt about the current condition of the market internals
2012-03-01 16:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components well above their zero line
2012-03-01 16:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to be in a correctional sequence
2012-03-01 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the likely outcome for prices is for a trading range
2012-03-01 16:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note
2012-03-01 16:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why the market is showing strength here
2012-03-01 16:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the high level of the NYSE breadth MCSUM with a current reading of +1154
2012-03-01 16:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we see this MCSUM even approach the +750 level
2012-03-01 16:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once again...
2012-03-01 16:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any near term surprises will continue to be to the upside
2012-03-01 16:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because...
2012-03-01 16:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the thrust of energy stops
2012-03-01 16:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the momentum of the move is still yet to come
2012-03-01 16:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at this point
2012-03-01 16:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have upside price objectives still to be met
2012-03-01 16:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the NYA
2012-03-01 16:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's around the 8500 level
2012-03-01 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is still about 300 points away
2012-03-01 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM as high as it is
2012-03-01 16:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have enough stimulation in the system to get there without any problems at all
2012-03-01 16:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we're, let's say, within 100 points of the target by that time, the time to worry would be if and when we approach the +500 level
2012-03-01 16:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a high probability that we'll still hit that target when the bulls attempt to re-establish their power on the way down
2012-03-01 16:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM moving higher, but from lower levels
2012-03-01 16:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meet the target and show divergence with the MCSUM
2012-03-01 16:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then that would be the best window of opportunity of a tradable top
2012-03-01 16:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now, we are on a hold
2012-03-01 16:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and waiting for more information
2012-03-01 16:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...
2012-03-01 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we almost had our upside breakout yesterday morning, didn't we?
2012-03-01 16:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up until...Ben was giving his statement on the economy
2012-03-01 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and traders just decided...let's just take profits...it's been a good run
2012-03-01 16:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did everyone notice how all of a sudden we had claims of "key reversals" yesterday?
2012-03-01 16:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: posting is a bit slow here...
2012-03-01 16:30:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no follow through, again, after that fair sized post expansion yesterday
2012-03-01 16:30:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: post expansion died again, after 1 shot
2012-03-01 16:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to go out and come back again to see if it helps...brb
2012-03-01 16:31:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: one day of post expansion, then bam-no follow through, again
2012-03-01 16:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: testing
2012-03-01 16:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhh...much better!
2012-03-01 16:31:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sorry
2012-03-01 16:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...where was I?
2012-03-01 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry? about what?
2012-03-01 16:32:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: triple posting the no post expansion, LOL
2012-03-01 16:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I never saw it
2012-03-01 16:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the board is slow tonight
2012-03-01 16:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you go out...close the browser, and come back in, that seems to solve the problem
2012-03-01 16:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my posts are coming up instantly now
2012-03-01 16:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...um...one moment
2012-03-01 16:33:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool
2012-03-01 16:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to upload the combo chart...brb
2012-03-01 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat12/nyad030112.png
2012-03-01 16:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Let's take a quick look at what we have here
2012-03-01 16:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO shows that it broke above its declining tops line on Tuesday of last week
2012-03-01 16:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we performed what looks like a simple snapback to that same line of resistance on Wednesday
2012-03-01 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as we've been working with over the last week or so
2012-03-01 16:42:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the NYSE breadth MCO is able to now take out its the small series of lower tops seen around the zero line
2012-03-01 16:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this technical format, we should then be able to remain above the zero line for an extended period
2012-03-01 16:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remembering, of course, that this MCO has now been below its zero line for the minimal amount of time to work off any excesses in the short term trend of money flow
2012-03-01 16:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYAD line itself
2012-03-01 16:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and lo and behold...we closed again at all time highs today
2012-03-01 16:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should always remember that the MCO is just an instrument to tell us the SPEED in which money is moving in one direction or the other
2012-03-01 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in essence
2012-03-01 16:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is measuring the speed in which one shorter term time period EMA is moving away or towards another time period EMA
2012-03-01 16:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the NYAD line again
2012-03-01 16:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the distance we see between the 19 day EMA and the 39 day EMA's
2012-03-01 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being the reasonable technicians that we are
2012-03-01 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can any pattern keep up this kind of strength before it reaches a point of exhaustion?
2012-03-01 16:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the answer is...not likely
2012-03-01 16:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also keep in mind
2012-03-01 16:46:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the distance we see between these same EMA's is quite wide right now
2012-03-01 16:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we know this because of the high levels of the MCSUM itself
2012-03-01 16:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here's your visual of what these two tools are telling us
2012-03-01 16:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in essence
2012-03-01 16:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although money continues to move into the marketplace
2012-03-01 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pace in which it's moving has only slowed and hasn't stopped
2012-03-01 16:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why the market can show resilience in the face of what many would consider a "sell signal"
2012-03-01 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which it isn't
2012-03-01 16:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only a pause
2012-03-01 16:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a slowing of what came before
2012-03-01 16:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO is only showing us that the speed in which the 19 day EMA is moving away from its 39 day EMA has just slowed after having our foot squarely on the accelerator pedal for a prolong period of time
2012-03-01 16:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...how do we KNOW the direction of the 19 day and 39 day EMA's themselves in this whole scenario?
2012-03-01 16:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone?
2012-03-01 16:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not going on until I get an answer
2012-03-01 16:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you all know the answer
2012-03-01 16:54:18 [Message] hkk -> Chat: components above 0?
2012-03-01 16:54:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2012-03-01 16:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components above their zero line
2012-03-01 16:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we KNOW that the direction of these same EMA's that make up the directional speed of money flow component
2012-03-01 16:57:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since the MCO is below the zero line
2012-03-01 16:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would mean that the shorter term 19 day EMA has slowed its pace and distance from that of the 39 day EMA
2012-03-01 16:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2012-03-01 16:58:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then when we look at the MCSUM
2012-03-01 16:58:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's direction, in this case declining, only shows us that the distance between these EMA's is only narrowing
2012-03-01 16:59:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the break of the rising bottoms line seen on the chart instructs us that the speed has now slowed enough where the A/D line itself might be close to coming to some sort of conclusion as to this same directional money flow
2012-03-01 16:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's NOT a sell signal
2012-03-01 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a HOLD signal
2012-03-01 17:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we have likely seen the BEST in this positive money flow
2012-03-01 17:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this doesn't mean that everyone has stopped adding their two cents
2012-03-01 17:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most  are waiting for a pullback
2012-03-01 17:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking for lower valuations
2012-03-01 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for whatever model they use to determine such triggers
2012-03-01 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for us
2012-03-01 17:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't matter who or when or why or what others are doing
2012-03-01 17:01:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we know is
2012-03-01 17:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the directional flow of money continues to come into the market
2012-03-01 17:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it continues to seek out areas of value
2012-03-01 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not doing so in such a breakneck pace as it did before
2012-03-01 17:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the proverbial foot is off the accelerator pedal
2012-03-01 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now coasting
2012-03-01 17:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like what happens in a car, boat, train, or plane
2012-03-01 17:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you take away the thrust
2012-03-01 17:03:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the forward momentum will still continue
2012-03-01 17:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will start to decay
2012-03-01 17:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until
2012-03-01 17:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more fuel is supplied again
2012-03-01 17:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we pick up speed
2012-03-01 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO turns higher
2012-03-01 17:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the distance between the two EMA's again expand
2012-03-01 17:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means the MCSUM moves higher
2012-03-01 17:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all we're doing here
2012-03-01 17:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're measuring the velocity of money
2012-03-01 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as money leadership produces the likely direction of what it stimulates
2012-03-01 17:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this same demand, or lack of it, will determine the direction of price itself
2012-03-01 17:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth leads price
2012-03-01 17:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without monetary stimulus, prices are not stimulated
2012-03-01 17:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-03-01 17:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's what the expectation is
2012-03-01 17:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get the kind of break that we saw yesterday below the small series of bottoms above bottoms
2012-03-01 17:07:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that the NYAD line is now likely to slow enough to allow its EMA's to catch up with it's amplitude
2012-03-01 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since this is only the very first pause point in the pattern
2012-03-01 17:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly likely now that we will not conclude this pause, produced by this MCO break, until we see the NYAD line relax enough to test its fastest EMA...the 19 day EMA in this case
2012-03-01 17:08:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from there
2012-03-01 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we will be able to determine the likely amount of time before we'll see the NYAD line then test its 39 day EMA
2012-03-01 17:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if one or the other are successful in this "taking a breather" moment
2012-03-01 17:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll then able to determine the likely effect this will have on both the direction of price AND the length of time that's likely to take to get to this same point
2012-03-01 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is how one can forecast about when we should see a point of exhaustion in the pattern
2012-03-01 17:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and based on what we also see
2012-03-01 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can extend this time quotient further out all dependent on how much stimulant is applied
2012-03-01 17:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like December
2012-03-01 17:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we initially had an upside time target of mid January
2012-03-01 17:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when we accelerated and was able to see the spread between the two EMA's reach of a point of "escape velocity"
2012-03-01 17:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we then could extend the time it might take to show further exhaustion of this higher rate of change
2012-03-01 17:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that became mid February
2012-03-01 17:12:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we topped out pretty much right on target on the 13th/14th
2012-03-01 17:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the last two weeks we've been waiting for another show of strength to maintain this same directional trending movement in the flow of money so that another extension could be considered
2012-03-01 17:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we didn't get it
2012-03-01 17:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still don't have it
2012-03-01 17:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but
2012-03-01 17:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't mean that the momentum of the energy that got us here has petered out either
2012-03-01 17:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all physics
2012-03-01 17:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's forward motion
2012-03-01 17:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the time it takes to apply an opposing force strong enough to change the direction of the structure built from this same force
2012-03-01 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-03-01 17:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now you can see why
2012-03-01 17:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any surprises here
2012-03-01 17:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will be to the upside for a while
2012-03-01 17:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why
2012-03-01 17:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a time to sell
2012-03-01 17:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is a time to monitor
2012-03-01 17:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what is called true rotation
2012-03-01 17:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where money remains in the system
2012-03-01 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's looking for other areas of undervaluation that are still available to it
2012-03-01 17:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...any selling is....
2012-03-01 17:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going right back in
2012-03-01 17:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why
2012-03-01 17:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are able to only consolidate in a trading range
2012-03-01 17:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why
2012-03-01 17:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have no control
2012-03-01 17:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears
2012-03-01 17:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they now have a lot of work to do
2012-03-01 17:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first they have so sell enough to force the A/D line to test the rising 19 day EMA
2012-03-01 17:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: buyers are likely to come in to support this same time period "average"
2012-03-01 17:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the buyers don't show enough conviction
2012-03-01 17:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and money flow stops short of making new highs
2012-03-01 17:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the bears can then take the ball and see if they can (1) break the shorter term EMA
2012-03-01 17:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then (2) the intermediate term EMA
2012-03-01 17:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which
2012-03-01 17:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely
2012-03-01 17:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will again be a point for the bulls to pick up the ball and try again to run with it
2012-03-01 17:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-03-01 17:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 19 day EMA isn't going to go lower until the NYAD line moves BELOW this same average
2012-03-01 17:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% component would then be below its zero line
2012-03-01 17:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the 5% would still be....
2012-03-01 17:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rising
2012-03-01 17:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for a trend to develop then
2012-03-01 17:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you must have not only the directional speed of money moving in this same direction
2012-03-01 17:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but both of the EMA's, the components, must also moving in this same direction
2012-03-01 17:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the 19 day crosses below the 39 day EMA
2012-03-01 17:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be the MCSUM moving below the zero line
2012-03-01 17:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the control goes to....
2012-03-01 17:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's right...the sellers
2012-03-01 17:21:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then they can move the market in their direction without a lot of effort to do so
2012-03-01 17:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because they would be swimming with the tide of this same flow of money and not against it
2012-03-01 17:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that ladies and gentlemen is what we do in here
2012-03-01 17:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why it's successful
2012-03-01 17:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why there's no emotion
2012-03-01 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because it makes sense
2012-03-01 17:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no tricks
2012-03-01 17:22:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no voodoo
2012-03-01 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money leads the direction of price
2012-03-01 17:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it moves in...prices are likely to move higher
2012-03-01 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it moves out...prices are likely to decline
2012-03-01 17:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can throw everything else out the window
2012-03-01 17:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions?
2012-03-01 17:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...good
2012-03-01 17:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then let me post the NAAD combo chart
2012-03-01 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://tinyurl.com/8x6pfln
2012-03-01 17:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what do we see here?
2012-03-01 17:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's start with the NAAD line itself
2012-03-01 17:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the EMA's on the NAAD line
2012-03-01 17:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that they have been able to travel up to the longer term 200 day EMA (1% Trend)
2012-03-01 17:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but have found resistance at this same line
2012-03-01 17:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how the market knows this, I really don't know
2012-03-01 17:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you will notice that the 19 day EMA hit the wall of the 200 day EMA and now its finding it hard going
2012-03-01 17:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NAAD line itself is also having problems moving above its horizontal resistance level as well
2012-03-01 17:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as tops beneath tops control its pattern
2012-03-01 17:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the 19 day EMA is now declining
2012-03-01 17:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we KNOW that the 10% component is below its zero line
2012-03-01 17:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCSUM declining
2012-03-01 17:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the distance between the two EMA's is now closing with the 5% Trend continuing to move higher
2012-03-01 17:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...let's take this apart even further
2012-03-01 17:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about earlier how the A/D line, like price itself, will first test its shorter term average
2012-03-01 17:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that fails
2012-03-01 17:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next likely area of support (or resistance) will come with the 39 day EMA
2012-03-01 17:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look where we bounced off of today
2012-03-01 17:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: within the vicinity of the 39 day
2012-03-01 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also bounced off the rising trend line that has been controlling this pattern of rising bottoms now since the December lows
2012-03-01 17:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-03-01 17:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we lose support here
2012-03-01 17:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then be the time to start to look for exits within this marketplace
2012-03-01 17:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because there would then be enough selling to where prices themselves would be less likely to continue moving, in this case, higher
2012-03-01 17:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the NYAD line continues to make higher highs
2012-03-01 17:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NAAD line is showing lower highs
2012-03-01 17:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we KNOW that money is moving from the secondaries, or growth stocks, to that of the primaries, or stocks of value
2012-03-01 17:36:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no guessing here
2012-03-01 17:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is showing a pattern now of "distribution" in the NASDAQ marketplace
2012-03-01 17:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's still showing a pattern of accumulation in the NYSE marketplace
2012-03-01 17:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BUT...at a slower pace than before which is a sign of a mature pattern sequence
2012-03-01 17:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: information like this then allows you to make informed choices without any hesitation as to what would be the likely outcome of such actions
2012-03-01 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as all you're doing is following money's lead
2012-03-01 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if decides to leave
2012-03-01 17:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you do so as well
2012-03-01 17:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it comes in again and shows constructive evidence in doing so
2012-03-01 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you follow it in
2012-03-01 17:38:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no need in questioning the motives
2012-03-01 17:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will be known in the fulness of time
2012-03-01 17:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but by then
2012-03-01 17:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would had lost on some easy money
2012-03-01 17:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leave the bias and emotions at the door
2012-03-01 17:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll do well...consistently
2012-03-01 17:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..
2012-03-01 17:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: enough of this boring stuff
2012-03-01 17:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-03-01 17:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the rest of the charts
2012-03-01 17:40:34 [Message] EricD -> Chat: great stuff
2012-03-01 17:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new closing highs today on the NDX
2012-03-01 17:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2012-03-01 17:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see a bottom above a bottom in the NDX breadth MCO supporting the move
2012-03-01 17:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2012-03-01 17:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's been a lessening of selling pressure over the last couple of days here in this index of 100 stocks
2012-03-01 17:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to where there would be more buyers then able to push prices in their direction
2012-03-01 17:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't matter on iota if they're right or wrong in their commitments
2012-03-01 17:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that matters is that the MAJORITY of traders agree that it's better serve to expose their capital to this direction than to put it somewhere else
2012-03-01 17:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2012-03-01 17:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the SPEED in which this same money flow is moving within the system
2012-03-01 17:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM measures the distance this same flow of money is providing to the overall strength of this same directional flow
2012-03-01 17:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger the separation of the MCSUM postings
2012-03-01 17:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more money that is moving
2012-03-01 17:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's congested
2012-03-01 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the less conviction there is with this same directional flow
2012-03-01 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the MCSUM is declining like it has been
2012-03-01 17:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the spacing between the daily postings are small
2012-03-01 17:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that side has no control
2012-03-01 17:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more like
2012-03-01 17:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who have been riding the larger trend are taking profits and moving money elsewhere
2012-03-01 17:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's staying within the system and NOT going to cash
2012-03-01 17:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why we're only on a hold here
2012-03-01 17:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there is a battle going on
2012-03-01 17:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and whichever side wins
2012-03-01 17:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THEN we make a commitment
2012-03-01 17:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not before
2012-03-01 17:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no rushing
2012-03-01 17:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no end around
2012-03-01 17:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slow and sure
2012-03-01 17:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2012-03-01 17:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market makers know how to generate a preferred "reaction"
2012-03-01 17:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they want people to sell
2012-03-01 17:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will drop prices quickly and sharply to condition traders to do just that
2012-03-01 17:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they want them to buy their inventory
2012-03-01 17:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will then raise prices sharply and this will then produce another reaction
2012-03-01 17:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all merchandising day in and day out
2012-03-01 17:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the money flow
2012-03-01 17:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the allowance of time it takes to reach a goal (in using EMA's)
2012-03-01 17:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this provides a daily insight on when it's time to either "buy the dip" or "sell the spike"
2012-03-01 17:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no voodoo
2012-03-01 17:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no special tools
2012-03-01 17:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2012-03-01 17:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: special tools can be used to better monitor points to where you trigger your trade based on this same concept
2012-03-01 17:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...too much time on this
2012-03-01 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I hope it gives you a better understanding on why and what we're doing in here
2012-03-01 17:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new closing highs on the OEX and the SPX
2012-03-01 17:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost one on the MID
2012-03-01 17:51:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the SML really took it on the chin yesterday
2012-03-01 17:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so knowing what we know
2012-03-01 17:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we look at the SML breadth MCO and MCSUM
2012-03-01 17:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then compare it with the other indices
2012-03-01 17:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why would want to continue to hold issues that make up this index
2012-03-01 17:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in favor of something like the NDX which is showing good money flow attraction?
2012-03-01 17:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why the tools provided here by DP gives us one the best ways to truly analyze the market
2012-03-01 17:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not have too work too hard in doing so
2012-03-01 17:54:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need to do really
2012-03-01 17:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to take 15 minutes each day
2012-03-01 17:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the charts
2012-03-01 17:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: compared them internally and intramarket
2012-03-01 17:54:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then come up with the best probability to outcome of a potential trade
2012-03-01 17:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you do this with blueprints and its expectations BEFORE you execute the trade
2012-03-01 17:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then adjust as the market does
2012-03-01 17:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got a nice bounce in prices today in the Wilshire 5000 index
2012-03-01 17:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because...
2012-03-01 17:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% Trend hit its zero line on Wednesday
2012-03-01 17:56:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was then due for a technical bounce
2012-03-01 17:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we won't talk about all of the inside range days we have today
2012-03-01 17:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests an up close for Friday
2012-03-01 17:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I digress
2012-03-01 17:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-03-01 17:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are neutral
2012-03-01 17:57:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as the STVO's
2012-03-01 17:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is once again going to take control here
2012-03-01 17:57:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and based on the patterns of the internals
2012-03-01 17:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one can make a good assumption on which side might have the better chance to grab those reigns
2012-03-01 17:58:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .83
2012-03-01 17:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice buying today
2012-03-01 17:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.01
2012-03-01 17:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally "oversold"
2012-03-01 17:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why we also bounced today
2012-03-01 17:59:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .66
2012-03-01 17:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .84
2012-03-01 17:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the Open 10 can stay between .90 and .80 here
2012-03-01 17:59:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a good sign of a momentum based trending price structure unwinding here
2012-03-01 17:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll keep an eye on that
2012-03-01 18:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .78
2012-03-01 18:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .94
2012-03-01 18:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're just moving along
2012-03-01 18:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the occasion hic up to keep the majority from taking advantage of the ongoing directional move
2012-03-01 18:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2012-03-01 18:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain in control
2012-03-01 18:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BUT
2012-03-01 18:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like on Tuesday night
2012-03-01 18:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers do have another opportunity to keep things from running away from them
2012-03-01 18:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the real test short term
2012-03-01 18:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is what happens after today
2012-03-01 18:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will we see a continue pick up in selling that will drive the MCO's to lower lows?
2012-03-01 18:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or will there be a lack of conviction here and we diverge??
2012-03-01 18:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we're holding
2012-03-01 18:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're waiting for the next move in the sequence
2012-03-01 18:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-03-01 18:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..I hope I didn't put you all to sleep
2012-03-01 18:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I thought this was a good chat today
2012-03-01 18:04:39 [Message] EricD -> Chat: great thanks
2012-03-01 18:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully the deeper digging of what the tools show helps in embracing their usefulness
2012-03-01 18:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2012-03-01 18:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-03-01 18:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2012-03-01 18:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things look on Tuesday
2012-03-01 18:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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