All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,423
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-03-10 16:00:02 fib1618: good day
2016-03-10 16:00:04 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-03-10 16:00:58 turkey: good, you?
2016-03-10 16:01:39 fib1618: doing fine and dandy...thanks!!
2016-03-10 16:03:42 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-03-10 16:03:59 turkey: Nope
2016-03-10 16:08:27 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-03-10 16:09:23 fib1618: after getting our technical bounce on Wednesday
2016-03-10 16:09:35 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved down and through the mid February lows today
2016-03-10 16:09:51 fib1618: and this now completes the initial breadth thrust
2016-03-10 16:10:09 fib1618: and where we should see a second stage boost come into play sometime in the next couple of days
2016-03-10 16:10:17 fib1618: for now
2016-03-10 16:10:26 fib1618: we wound up with a reading of +48
2016-03-10 16:10:43 fib1618: which is near enough to natural support of +50 for a probable bounce on Friday
2016-03-10 16:11:01 fib1618: but we'll have to see if the NYSE Composite agrees with this or not in a moment
2016-03-10 16:11:32 fib1618: for the Elliottician's out there
2016-03-10 16:11:48 fib1618: this break below the mid February lows confirms a 4th wave in progress
2016-03-10 16:12:21 fib1618: from where a final thrust to complete the sequence should be seen at the same time when the second stage rocket ignites
2016-03-10 16:12:36 fib1618: this will turn out to be a divergent structure
2016-03-10 16:12:59 fib1618: and we should hit our upside price target of around 10,200 on the NYA
2016-03-10 16:13:27 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-03-10 16:13:39 fib1618: and we see that we have NOT broken the mid February lows as yet
2016-03-10 16:13:59 fib1618: and we wound up finding support today at the +50 level
2016-03-10 16:14:14 fib1618: so here too we should get a technical bounce attempt to start Friday
2016-03-10 16:14:49 fib1618: and then a final push lower should be seen next week to finish off the breadth thrust
2016-03-10 16:15:08 fib1618: we had a large mid range close today
2016-03-10 16:15:26 fib1618: which would indicate a lower close for Friday
2016-03-10 16:15:46 fib1618: all part of the consolidation that we're seeing since Monday's blow off
2016-03-10 16:16:06 fib1618: good news for the buyers longer term
2016-03-10 16:16:26 fib1618: is that the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM closed above the +600 level today
2016-03-10 16:16:47 fib1618: so the expectation from this juncture is for this MCSUM to continue to move higher toward the +750 level
2016-03-10 16:17:26 fib1618: and this will provide enough of a pool below us to also reach our upside price target in the NYA without the benefit of large positive plurality days
2016-03-10 16:17:47 fib1618: which...is the backbone of an Elliott 5th wave and the momentum divergence that it generates
2016-03-10 16:18:11 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-03-10 16:18:20 fib1618: and here we did break below the mid February lows
2016-03-10 16:19:05 fib1618: and given the current challenge we have in trying to move above horizontal highs of early December
2016-03-10 16:19:21 fib1618: we could see quite a bit of selling near term in this specific index near term
2016-03-10 16:19:32 fib1618: so that this MCO can move back to its zero line
2016-03-10 16:20:14 fib1618: there is, of course, the outside chance of a upside snapback in the NASDAQ MCO on Friday to break above this same MCSUM resistance
2016-03-10 16:20:42 fib1618: but because of the longevity of this MCO remaining above its zero line
2016-03-10 16:21:01 fib1618: the odds are less than 50% that it continue to do so from this juncture
2016-03-10 16:21:05 fib1618: then again
2016-03-10 16:21:15 fib1618: the MID and SML have been strong
2016-03-10 16:21:34 fib1618: just hard to point a solid finger on things with the NYSE Composite still holding MCO support
2016-03-10 16:22:15 fib1618: we also got our technical bounce in the NDX breadth MCO on Wednesday
2016-03-10 16:22:22 fib1618: but it didn't go very far (as we expected)
2016-03-10 16:22:40 fib1618: and now a challenge of the MCO zero is all but certain short term
2016-03-10 16:22:41 fib1618: so far
2016-03-10 16:22:50 fib1618: it looks like the market may rally at the open
2016-03-10 16:23:07 fib1618: but will probably loss any momentum it gets early on
2016-03-10 16:23:23 fib1618: and then sag for the rest of the day
2016-03-10 16:23:26 fib1618: sort of like today
2016-03-10 16:24:02 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO did exactly what we expected on Tuesday
2016-03-10 16:24:11 fib1618: by bouncing to reach the +50 level on Wednesday
2016-03-10 16:24:17 fib1618: and then moving lower from there today
2016-03-10 16:24:35 fib1618: still not a lower low as yet
2016-03-10 16:24:51 fib1618: so unless the OEX did move to a lower low
2016-03-10 16:25:02 fib1618: we might see a bounce attempt here as well near term
2016-03-10 16:25:04 fib1618: and moving to the OEX
2016-03-10 16:25:18 fib1618: we did go to a lower low today
2016-03-10 16:25:30 fib1618: and that will put pressure on the SPX to do the same
2016-03-10 16:25:49 fib1618: noted here is that the OEX breadth MCO is also at natural support of +26
2016-03-10 16:26:13 fib1618: so, here too, a technical bounce on Friday can not be ruled out...at least initially
2016-03-10 16:26:32 fib1618: and for you EMA fans out there
2016-03-10 16:27:03 fib1618: isn't it amazing how the Dow, SPX and OEX are congested right at their 200 day EMA's?
2016-03-10 16:27:36 fib1618: while looking at the COMPQ and NDX
2016-03-10 16:27:45 fib1618: they pulled up just short of their 200 day EMA's
2016-03-10 16:27:54 fib1618: and both found support at their 50 day EMA's
2016-03-10 16:28:02 fib1618: as we reviewed a couple of weeks ago
2016-03-10 16:28:35 fib1618: this is all part of the process to back and fill between these EMA's to test the health of a developing trend
2016-03-10 16:28:53 fib1618: notice too that the majors may had closed above the 200 day EMA on Monday
2016-03-10 16:29:06 fib1618: but sold off hard after only one day above this level
2016-03-10 16:29:25 fib1618: this reinforces the importance of this simple, but effective, indicator
2016-03-10 16:29:32 fib1618: ideally
2016-03-10 16:29:42 fib1618: we should now continue to find support at the 50 day
2016-03-10 16:29:51 fib1618: allowing the 20 day EMA to move above this same EMA
2016-03-10 16:29:55 fib1618: and with this foundation
2016-03-10 16:30:22 fib1618: prices can then push forward above the 200 day EMA with this added to support to fall back on
2016-03-10 16:30:43 fib1618: this causes the consolidation of which usually become triangles
2016-03-10 16:31:08 fib1618: and the impending thrust that results and the chart action becomes more and more compressed
2016-03-10 16:31:30 fib1618: moving to the Dow breadth MCO
2016-03-10 16:31:54 fib1618: and we see that it has continued to move lower
2016-03-10 16:32:07 fib1618: and is now 5 points above its zero line
2016-03-10 16:32:16 fib1618: this now suggests another bounce attempt as well
2016-03-10 16:32:23 fib1618: no less
2016-03-10 16:32:36 fib1618: having the 10% Trend meeting the 5% Trend at this same time
2016-03-10 16:33:10 fib1618: note also how all of this action is taking place as the Dow breadth MCSUM moves closer and closer to its +500 resistance level
2016-03-10 16:33:55 fib1618: showing us, once again, that everything market works with each other to produce preferred outcome
2016-03-10 16:34:30 fib1618: after bouncing higher on Wednesday to help the MID breadth MCSUM break above its pattern resistance
2016-03-10 16:34:39 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO moved sharply lower today
2016-03-10 16:34:58 fib1618: providing us with a 1st stage engine shut down
2016-03-10 16:35:17 fib1618: and the usual occurrence that goes with it
2016-03-10 16:35:31 fib1618: as we lurched forward price wise at the offset
2016-03-10 16:35:39 fib1618: slammed back in our seats during the day
2016-03-10 16:35:45 fib1618: and found balance into the close
2016-03-10 16:36:29 fib1618: we had pretty much the same shut down event in the SML breadth MCO today
2016-03-10 16:36:55 fib1618: but since the SML breadth MCSUM is still below its early December highs
2016-03-10 16:37:21 fib1618: the price action did not close within the range of the last two trading days as the MID, and other major indices, did
2016-03-10 16:37:46 fib1618: this then shows us that although SML breadth has been strong
2016-03-10 16:38:05 fib1618: it hasn't been strong enough to offset the weaker volume component of which we reviewed on Tuesday
2016-03-10 16:38:42 fib1618: and a slightly lower daily price retracement will likely be the result in this comparison
2016-03-10 16:39:23 fib1618: and we also got a breakdown below the mid February lows today in the TM breadth MCO
2016-03-10 16:40:18 fib1618: though it wasn't deep enough below these low points for the market to continue to follow through on this weakness near term
2016-03-10 16:40:27 fib1618: allowing, again, for a rally attempt on Friday
2016-03-10 16:40:31 fib1618: so...
2016-03-10 16:40:51 fib1618: we seem to be getting the rhythm down pretty good here
2016-03-10 16:41:42 fib1618: and this will help us as far as the timing as when to expect our "better opportunity" to go long sometime in the beginning of April
2016-03-10 16:41:53 fib1618: lets see how the sectors are doing
2016-03-10 16:42:20 fib1618: after reaching our upside price target earlier in the week
2016-03-10 16:42:47 fib1618: the XLY continues to consolidate below its gap seen at the beginning of the year
2016-03-10 16:43:26 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO action echos that of the NDX right now
2016-03-10 16:43:53 fib1618: as it tests the +25 level
2016-03-10 16:44:19 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCSUM has also cleared both pattern and the +500 level resistance levels
2016-03-10 16:44:33 fib1618: so the expectation here is for a continued consolidation
2016-03-10 16:44:44 fib1618: before making an attempt to close the January gap
2016-03-10 16:45:11 fib1618: the XLP price action continues to make new all time highs
2016-03-10 16:45:37 fib1618: as we see a pattern of lower highs in the XLP breadth MCO
2016-03-10 16:45:49 fib1618: this is something that is usual and customary at this stage
2016-03-10 16:46:20 fib1618: for you have to remember that the greater the distance the rocket is from the pull of gravity
2016-03-10 16:46:39 fib1618: it's easier to keep prices moving in this same direction with little in the way of additional thrust
2016-03-10 16:46:58 fib1618: now with a reading of +1113
2016-03-10 16:47:12 fib1618: next stop for the XLP breadth MCSUM will be the +1250 level
2016-03-10 16:47:47 fib1618: after reaching our $62 price target on Monday
2016-03-10 16:48:03 fib1618: the XLE price structure appears to tracing out a simple triangle configuration
2016-03-10 16:48:29 fib1618: while the XLE breadth MCO remains in a bottom above bottom configuration
2016-03-10 16:48:47 fib1618: the XLE breadth MCSUM itself now has a reading of +482
2016-03-10 16:49:10 fib1618: so we could see a real game changer with this basket of stocks as soon as next week
2016-03-10 16:49:16 fib1618: either we'll take a rest
2016-03-10 16:49:32 fib1618: or we'll see an acceleration of investment support in this index
2016-03-10 16:50:00 fib1618: and that should then clear the way for the next price target of around $70
2016-03-10 16:50:41 fib1618: the XLF breadth MCO moved below its mid February lows today
2016-03-10 16:51:03 fib1618: with the price action testing the old February highs
2016-03-10 16:51:21 fib1618: nice little island reversal on this chart
2016-03-10 16:51:36 fib1618: almost "futures like"
2016-03-10 16:51:56 fib1618: not real sold on the action here
2016-03-10 16:52:15 fib1618: but there is a positive spin to its expectations of what could be
2016-03-10 16:52:43 fib1618: and sadly
2016-03-10 16:52:52 fib1618: there's not much of a play here money wise
2016-03-10 16:53:05 fib1618: so we'll continue to watch this one
2016-03-10 16:53:35 fib1618: I sure don't like the price pattern structure on the XLV
2016-03-10 16:53:41 fib1618: looks like its rolling over
2016-03-10 16:54:06 fib1618: and showing very little underlying support that one would like to see if this were the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern
2016-03-10 16:54:31 fib1618: next we come to the XLI
2016-03-10 16:54:39 fib1618: and this may be the whisper we're looking for
2016-03-10 16:54:55 fib1618: as the XLI breadth MCO has now snapped back to the +15 level
2016-03-10 16:55:36 fib1618: while the XLI breadth MCSUM has just cleared the +750 level
2016-03-10 16:56:04 fib1618: we've also reached our minimal price target of $54
2016-03-10 16:56:43 fib1618: this is still the one sector to watch for guidance it would seem
2016-03-10 16:57:09 fib1618: good pattern structure continues in the XLB breadth MCO
2016-03-10 16:57:35 fib1618: as we saw good upside follow through off the +50 level yesterday
2016-03-10 16:58:02 fib1618: and that should be enough to push the XLB breadth MCSUM up and through the +750 level
2016-03-10 16:58:22 fib1618: speaking of which
2016-03-10 16:58:31 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCSUM is at +749 now
2016-03-10 16:58:56 fib1618: and with a snapback toward the +50 level out of the way
2016-03-10 16:59:08 fib1618: we could see this MCO fall back to the zero line now
2016-03-10 16:59:23 fib1618: which would halt things at +750
2016-03-10 16:59:46 fib1618: the price action of the last week has been disappointing as well
2016-03-10 17:00:21 fib1618: so any print below today's intraday lows and I would say "see ya" on this one
2016-03-10 17:00:54 fib1618: and the XLU continues to see higher highs
2016-03-10 17:01:14 fib1618: as money continues to move strongly into this basket of issues
2016-03-10 17:01:39 fib1618: I can't even convey the strength it would take to push the XLU breadth MCSUM above the +1750 level as it is right now
2016-03-10 17:01:41 fib1618: no less
2016-03-10 17:01:54 fib1618: with a rounding bottom providing it with support
2016-03-10 17:02:08 fib1618: so...
2016-03-10 17:02:27 fib1618: we're now getting indications that the market showing some fatigue in certain areas
2016-03-10 17:03:22 fib1618: while in other areas, it looks we're just taking a pause to catch our brea(d)th
2016-03-10 17:03:32 fib1618: before another probe to the upside
2016-03-10 17:03:52 fib1618: still...not enough to call the "all clear"
2016-03-10 17:04:07 fib1618: but it's far better than what we've seen over the last 2-3 months
2016-03-10 17:04:12 fib1618: OBV's
2016-03-10 17:04:30 fib1618: CVI's are neutral
2016-03-10 17:04:36 fib1618: one side is about to take control
2016-03-10 17:04:55 fib1618: STVO's are a bit mixed
2016-03-10 17:05:02 fib1618: but off of their "overbought" levels
2016-03-10 17:05:28 fib1618: and we'll call the VTO's "overbought"
2016-03-10 17:05:36 fib1618: but not in a uniformed way
2016-03-10 17:05:55 fib1618: a lot of choppiness...indecision...going on right now
2016-03-10 17:06:17 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .73
2016-03-10 17:06:28 fib1618: Open 10 at .92
2016-03-10 17:06:34 fib1618: we'll call that neutral
2016-03-10 17:06:56 fib1618: and a reflection that we're closer to the end than we are at the beginning of this current pricing sequence
2016-03-10 17:07:12 fib1618: and a compliment for the suggested Elliott count
2016-03-10 17:07:23 fib1618: remember
2016-03-10 17:07:37 fib1618: Elliott is just a guideline in all this
2016-03-10 17:07:53 fib1618: it provides a way to share where we might be in a pattern sequence
2016-03-10 17:08:16 fib1618: but not necessarily what "is"
2016-03-10 17:08:29 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .86
2016-03-10 17:08:42 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2016-03-10 17:08:57 fib1618: so that should keep prices from moving lower in any important way for now
2016-03-10 17:09:08 fib1618: TM TRIN at .88
2016-03-10 17:09:18 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2016-03-10 17:09:21 fib1618: so...
2016-03-10 17:09:34 fib1618: we seem to be getting exactly what we figured
2016-03-10 17:09:48 fib1618: prices finding resistance at their 200 day EMA's
2016-03-10 17:10:27 fib1618: with underlying breadth providing enough of a cushion to keep prices from moving south
2016-03-10 17:10:32 fib1618: and a consolidation results
2016-03-10 17:10:43 fib1618: let me see how the BETS is doing
2016-03-10 17:10:45 fib1618: one sec
2016-03-10 17:11:44 fib1618: +10
2016-03-10 17:11:47 fib1618: improving
2016-03-10 17:11:53 fib1618: slow but sure
2016-03-10 17:12:20 fib1618: just need three chart changes from bear to bull and we have an accumulation signal
2016-03-10 17:12:37 fib1618: let me check around the DP charts - one sec
2016-03-10 17:13:24 fib1618: P/C ratios look toppy
2016-03-10 17:14:22 fib1618: sentiment bullish to neutral for last weekend
2016-03-10 17:14:39 fib1618: 65% bears on Mark's sentiment
2016-03-10 17:15:37 fib1618: nice reversal bar today in gold
2016-03-10 17:15:47 fib1618: we should see $1300 next week
2016-03-10 17:16:34 fib1618: yields on the 10 year continue to disagree with the Bond CEF A/D line
2016-03-10 17:16:41 fib1618: pattern looks good
2016-03-10 17:16:50 fib1618: so something is gonna to give there
2016-03-10 17:17:25 fib1618: looks like we have a double bottom now in the CRB index at 155
2016-03-10 17:17:38 fib1618: probably a snapback to previous longer term support
2016-03-10 17:18:00 fib1618: with a little triangle there
2016-03-10 17:18:13 fib1618: so let's look for a upside thrust in the next day or two
2016-03-10 17:18:49 turkey: yes expecting that on crb
2016-03-10 17:19:10 fib1618: got a bullish crossover of the 20 day EMA above the 50 day EMA today in WTIC
2016-03-10 17:19:29 fib1618: SAR stop at 34.31
2016-03-10 17:19:56 fib1618: could see a sharp $4 move here pretty soon
2016-03-10 17:20:01 fib1618: right at resistance now
2016-03-10 17:20:12 fib1618: the 200 day EMA should eventually hold the the pattern in check
2016-03-10 17:20:22 fib1618: and that's at $42.71
2016-03-10 17:20:47 fib1618: back to the metals
2016-03-10 17:20:57 fib1618: silver is showing good strength right now
2016-03-10 17:21:12 fib1618: finding support at the 200 and 20 day EMA's today
2016-03-10 17:21:24 fib1618: in fact
2016-03-10 17:21:32 fib1618: the whole action is looking very good right now
2016-03-10 17:22:01 fib1618: you'll notice this bullish interplay if you bring up our EMA Trinity (20,50,200 EMA) on the daily chart
2016-03-10 17:22:33 fib1618: copper has rallied up to its 200 day EMA
2016-03-10 17:22:36 fib1618: and is now in a triangle
2016-03-10 17:22:49 fib1618: the market seems to be in good rhythm right now
2016-03-10 17:22:59 fib1618: as it relates to triangles and the 200 day EMA
2016-03-10 17:23:09 fib1618: for the bears
2016-03-10 17:23:16 fib1618: if the 200 holds
2016-03-10 17:23:29 fib1618: the next several weeks after that would see a lot of price decay
2016-03-10 17:23:40 fib1618: and that should lead to a tradable low
2016-03-10 17:23:48 fib1618: in theory, of course
2016-03-10 17:24:00 fib1618: and that's about it
2016-03-10 17:24:04 fib1618: anything else?
2016-03-10 17:24:45 turkey: nope
2016-03-10 17:28:45 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-03-10 17:28:48 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-03-10 17:28:57 fib1618: everyone have a super duper weekend
2016-03-10 17:29:06 fib1618: and we'll see how things are moving and shaking on Tuesday
2016-03-10 17:29:07 fib1618: good night
2016-03-10 17:29:31 turkey: night


__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch