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Posts: 5,090
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-03-10 16:00:02 fib1618: good day
2016-03-10 16:00:04 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-03-10 16:00:58 turkey: good, you?
2016-03-10 16:01:39 fib1618: doing fine and dandy...thanks!!
2016-03-10 16:03:42 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-03-10 16:03:59 turkey: Nope
2016-03-10 16:08:27 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-03-10 16:09:23 fib1618: after getting our technical bounce on Wednesday
2016-03-10 16:09:35 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved down and through the mid February lows today
2016-03-10 16:09:51 fib1618: and this now completes the initial breadth thrust
2016-03-10 16:10:09 fib1618: and where we should see a second stage boost come into play sometime in the next couple of days
2016-03-10 16:10:17 fib1618: for now
2016-03-10 16:10:26 fib1618: we wound up with a reading of +48
2016-03-10 16:10:43 fib1618: which is near enough to natural support of +50 for a probable bounce on Friday
2016-03-10 16:11:01 fib1618: but we'll have to see if the NYSE Composite agrees with this or not in a moment
2016-03-10 16:11:32 fib1618: for the Elliottician's out there
2016-03-10 16:11:48 fib1618: this break below the mid February lows confirms a 4th wave in progress
2016-03-10 16:12:21 fib1618: from where a final thrust to complete the sequence should be seen at the same time when the second stage rocket ignites
2016-03-10 16:12:36 fib1618: this will turn out to be a divergent structure
2016-03-10 16:12:59 fib1618: and we should hit our upside price target of around 10,200 on the NYA
2016-03-10 16:13:27 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-03-10 16:13:39 fib1618: and we see that we have NOT broken the mid February lows as yet
2016-03-10 16:13:59 fib1618: and we wound up finding support today at the +50 level
2016-03-10 16:14:14 fib1618: so here too we should get a technical bounce attempt to start Friday
2016-03-10 16:14:49 fib1618: and then a final push lower should be seen next week to finish off the breadth thrust
2016-03-10 16:15:08 fib1618: we had a large mid range close today
2016-03-10 16:15:26 fib1618: which would indicate a lower close for Friday
2016-03-10 16:15:46 fib1618: all part of the consolidation that we're seeing since Monday's blow off
2016-03-10 16:16:06 fib1618: good news for the buyers longer term
2016-03-10 16:16:26 fib1618: is that the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM closed above the +600 level today
2016-03-10 16:16:47 fib1618: so the expectation from this juncture is for this MCSUM to continue to move higher toward the +750 level
2016-03-10 16:17:26 fib1618: and this will provide enough of a pool below us to also reach our upside price target in the NYA without the benefit of large positive plurality days
2016-03-10 16:17:47 fib1618: the backbone of an Elliott 5th wave and the momentum divergence that it generates
2016-03-10 16:18:11 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-03-10 16:18:20 fib1618: and here we did break below the mid February lows
2016-03-10 16:19:05 fib1618: and given the current challenge we have in trying to move above horizontal highs of early December
2016-03-10 16:19:21 fib1618: we could see quite a bit of selling near term in this specific index near term
2016-03-10 16:19:32 fib1618: so that this MCO can move back to its zero line
2016-03-10 16:20:14 fib1618: there is, of course, the outside chance of a upside snapback in the NASDAQ MCO on Friday to break above this same MCSUM resistance
2016-03-10 16:20:42 fib1618: but because of the longevity of this MCO remaining above its zero line
2016-03-10 16:21:01 fib1618: the odds are less than 50% that it continue to do so from this juncture
2016-03-10 16:21:05 fib1618: then again
2016-03-10 16:21:15 fib1618: the MID and SML have been strong
2016-03-10 16:21:34 fib1618: just hard to point a solid finger on things with the NYSE Composite still holding MCO support
2016-03-10 16:22:15 fib1618: we also got our technical bounce in the NDX breadth MCO on Wednesday
2016-03-10 16:22:22 fib1618: but it didn't go very far (as we expected)
2016-03-10 16:22:40 fib1618: and now a challenge of the MCO zero is all but certain short term
2016-03-10 16:22:41 fib1618: so far
2016-03-10 16:22:50 fib1618: it looks like the market may rally at the open
2016-03-10 16:23:07 fib1618: but will probably loss any momentum it gets early on
2016-03-10 16:23:23 fib1618: and then sag for the rest of the day
2016-03-10 16:23:26 fib1618: sort of like today
2016-03-10 16:24:02 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO did exactly what we expected on Tuesday
2016-03-10 16:24:11 fib1618: by bouncing to reach the +50 level on Wednesday
2016-03-10 16:24:17 fib1618: and then moving lower from there today
2016-03-10 16:24:35 fib1618: still not a lower low as yet
2016-03-10 16:24:51 fib1618: so unless the OEX did move to a lower low
2016-03-10 16:25:02 fib1618: we might see a bounce attempt here as well near term
2016-03-10 16:25:04 fib1618: and moving to the OEX
2016-03-10 16:25:18 fib1618: we did go to a lower low today
2016-03-10 16:25:30 fib1618: and that will put pressure on the SPX to do the same
2016-03-10 16:25:49 fib1618: noted here is that the OEX breadth MCO is also at natural support of +26
2016-03-10 16:26:13 fib1618: so, here too, a technical bounce on Friday can not be ruled least initially
2016-03-10 16:26:32 fib1618: and for you EMA fans out there
2016-03-10 16:27:03 fib1618: isn't it amazing how the Dow, SPX and OEX are congested right at their 200 day EMA's?
2016-03-10 16:27:36 fib1618: while looking at the COMPQ and NDX
2016-03-10 16:27:45 fib1618: they pulled up just short of their 200 day EMA's
2016-03-10 16:27:54 fib1618: and both found support at their 50 day EMA's
2016-03-10 16:28:02 fib1618: as we reviewed a couple of weeks ago
2016-03-10 16:28:35 fib1618: this is all part of the process to back and fill between these EMA's to test the health of a developing trend
2016-03-10 16:28:53 fib1618: notice too that the majors may had closed above the 200 day EMA on Monday
2016-03-10 16:29:06 fib1618: but sold off hard after only one day above this level
2016-03-10 16:29:25 fib1618: this reinforces the importance of this simple, but effective, indicator
2016-03-10 16:29:32 fib1618: ideally
2016-03-10 16:29:42 fib1618: we should now continue to find support at the 50 day
2016-03-10 16:29:51 fib1618: allowing the 20 day EMA to move above this same EMA
2016-03-10 16:29:55 fib1618: and with this foundation
2016-03-10 16:30:22 fib1618: prices can then push forward above the 200 day EMA with this added to support to fall back on
2016-03-10 16:30:43 fib1618: this causes the consolidation of which usually become triangles
2016-03-10 16:31:08 fib1618: and the impending thrust that results and the chart action becomes more and more compressed
2016-03-10 16:31:30 fib1618: moving to the Dow breadth MCO
2016-03-10 16:31:54 fib1618: and we see that it has continued to move lower
2016-03-10 16:32:07 fib1618: and is now 5 points above its zero line
2016-03-10 16:32:16 fib1618: this now suggests another bounce attempt as well
2016-03-10 16:32:23 fib1618: no less
2016-03-10 16:32:36 fib1618: having the 10% Trend meeting the 5% Trend at this same time
2016-03-10 16:33:10 fib1618: note also how all of this action is taking place as the Dow breadth MCSUM moves closer and closer to its +500 resistance level
2016-03-10 16:33:55 fib1618: showing us, once again, that everything market works with each other to produce preferred outcome
2016-03-10 16:34:30 fib1618: after bouncing higher on Wednesday to help the MID breadth MCSUM break above its pattern resistance
2016-03-10 16:34:39 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO moved sharply lower today
2016-03-10 16:34:58 fib1618: providing us with a 1st stage engine shut down
2016-03-10 16:35:17 fib1618: and the usual occurrence that goes with it
2016-03-10 16:35:31 fib1618: as we lurched forward price wise at the offset
2016-03-10 16:35:39 fib1618: slammed back in our seats during the day
2016-03-10 16:35:45 fib1618: and found balance into the close
2016-03-10 16:36:29 fib1618: we had pretty much the same shut down event in the SML breadth MCO today
2016-03-10 16:36:55 fib1618: but since the SML breadth MCSUM is still below its early December highs
2016-03-10 16:37:21 fib1618: the price action did not close within the range of the last two trading days as the MID, and other major indices, did
2016-03-10 16:37:46 fib1618: this then shows us that although SML breadth has been strong
2016-03-10 16:38:05 fib1618: it hasn't been strong enough to offset the weaker volume component of which we reviewed on Tuesday
2016-03-10 16:38:42 fib1618: and a slightly lower daily price retracement will likely be the result in this comparison
2016-03-10 16:39:23 fib1618: and we also got a breakdown below the mid February lows today in the TM breadth MCO
2016-03-10 16:40:18 fib1618: though it wasn't deep enough below these low points for the market to continue to follow through on this weakness near term
2016-03-10 16:40:27 fib1618: allowing, again, for a rally attempt on Friday
2016-03-10 16:40:31 fib1618: so...
2016-03-10 16:40:51 fib1618: we seem to be getting the rhythm down pretty good here
2016-03-10 16:41:42 fib1618: and this will help us as far as the timing as when to expect our "better opportunity" to go long sometime in the beginning of April
2016-03-10 16:41:53 fib1618: lets see how the sectors are doing
2016-03-10 16:42:20 fib1618: after reaching our upside price target earlier in the week
2016-03-10 16:42:47 fib1618: the XLY continues to consolidate below its gap seen at the beginning of the year
2016-03-10 16:43:26 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO action echos that of the NDX right now
2016-03-10 16:43:53 fib1618: as it tests the +25 level
2016-03-10 16:44:19 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCSUM has also cleared both pattern and the +500 level resistance levels
2016-03-10 16:44:33 fib1618: so the expectation here is for a continued consolidation
2016-03-10 16:44:44 fib1618: before making an attempt to close the January gap
2016-03-10 16:45:11 fib1618: the XLP price action continues to make new all time highs
2016-03-10 16:45:37 fib1618: as we see a pattern of lower highs in the XLP breadth MCO
2016-03-10 16:45:49 fib1618: this is something that is usual and customary at this stage
2016-03-10 16:46:20 fib1618: for you have to remember that the greater the distance the rocket is from the pull of gravity
2016-03-10 16:46:39 fib1618: it's easier to keep prices moving in this same direction with little in the way of additional thrust
2016-03-10 16:46:58 fib1618: now with a reading of +1113
2016-03-10 16:47:12 fib1618: next stop for the XLP breadth MCSUM will be the +1250 level
2016-03-10 16:47:47 fib1618: after reaching our $62 price target on Monday
2016-03-10 16:48:03 fib1618: the XLE price structure appears to tracing out a simple triangle configuration
2016-03-10 16:48:29 fib1618: while the XLE breadth MCO remains in a bottom above bottom configuration
2016-03-10 16:48:47 fib1618: the XLE breadth MCSUM itself now has a reading of +482
2016-03-10 16:49:10 fib1618: so we could see a real game changer with this basket of stocks as soon as next week
2016-03-10 16:49:16 fib1618: either we'll take a rest
2016-03-10 16:49:32 fib1618: or we'll see an acceleration of investment support in this index
2016-03-10 16:50:00 fib1618: and that should then clear the way for the next price target of around $70
2016-03-10 16:50:41 fib1618: the XLF breadth MCO moved below its mid February lows today
2016-03-10 16:51:03 fib1618: with the price action testing the old February highs
2016-03-10 16:51:21 fib1618: nice little island reversal on this chart
2016-03-10 16:51:36 fib1618: almost "futures like"
2016-03-10 16:51:56 fib1618: not real sold on the action here
2016-03-10 16:52:15 fib1618: but there is a positive spin to its expectations of what could be
2016-03-10 16:52:43 fib1618: and sadly
2016-03-10 16:52:52 fib1618: there's not much of a play here money wise
2016-03-10 16:53:05 fib1618: so we'll continue to watch this one
2016-03-10 16:53:35 fib1618: I sure don't like the price pattern structure on the XLV
2016-03-10 16:53:41 fib1618: looks like its rolling over
2016-03-10 16:54:06 fib1618: and showing very little underlying support that one would like to see if this were the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern
2016-03-10 16:54:31 fib1618: next we come to the XLI
2016-03-10 16:54:39 fib1618: and this may be the whisper we're looking for
2016-03-10 16:54:55 fib1618: as the XLI breadth MCO has now snapped back to the +15 level
2016-03-10 16:55:36 fib1618: while the XLI breadth MCSUM has just cleared the +750 level
2016-03-10 16:56:04 fib1618: we've also reached our minimal price target of $54
2016-03-10 16:56:43 fib1618: this is still the one sector to watch for guidance it would seem
2016-03-10 16:57:09 fib1618: good pattern structure continues in the XLB breadth MCO
2016-03-10 16:57:35 fib1618: as we saw good upside follow through off the +50 level yesterday
2016-03-10 16:58:02 fib1618: and that should be enough to push the XLB breadth MCSUM up and through the +750 level
2016-03-10 16:58:22 fib1618: speaking of which
2016-03-10 16:58:31 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCSUM is at +749 now
2016-03-10 16:58:56 fib1618: and with a snapback toward the +50 level out of the way
2016-03-10 16:59:08 fib1618: we could see this MCO fall back to the zero line now
2016-03-10 16:59:23 fib1618: which would halt things at +750
2016-03-10 16:59:46 fib1618: the price action of the last week has been disappointing as well
2016-03-10 17:00:21 fib1618: so any print below today's intraday lows and I would say "see ya" on this one
2016-03-10 17:00:54 fib1618: and the XLU continues to see higher highs
2016-03-10 17:01:14 fib1618: as money continues to move strongly into this basket of issues
2016-03-10 17:01:39 fib1618: I can't even convey the strength it would take to push the XLU breadth MCSUM above the +1750 level as it is right now
2016-03-10 17:01:41 fib1618: no less
2016-03-10 17:01:54 fib1618: with a rounding bottom providing it with support
2016-03-10 17:02:08 fib1618: so...
2016-03-10 17:02:27 fib1618: we're now getting indications that the market showing some fatigue in certain areas
2016-03-10 17:03:22 fib1618: while in other areas, it looks we're just taking a pause to catch our brea(d)th
2016-03-10 17:03:32 fib1618: before another probe to the upside
2016-03-10 17:03:52 fib1618: still...not enough to call the "all clear"
2016-03-10 17:04:07 fib1618: but it's far better than what we've seen over the last 2-3 months
2016-03-10 17:04:12 fib1618: OBV's
2016-03-10 17:04:30 fib1618: CVI's are neutral
2016-03-10 17:04:36 fib1618: one side is about to take control
2016-03-10 17:04:55 fib1618: STVO's are a bit mixed
2016-03-10 17:05:02 fib1618: but off of their "overbought" levels
2016-03-10 17:05:28 fib1618: and we'll call the VTO's "overbought"
2016-03-10 17:05:36 fib1618: but not in a uniformed way
2016-03-10 17:05:55 fib1618: a lot of choppiness...indecision...going on right now
2016-03-10 17:06:17 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .73
2016-03-10 17:06:28 fib1618: Open 10 at .92
2016-03-10 17:06:34 fib1618: we'll call that neutral
2016-03-10 17:06:56 fib1618: and a reflection that we're closer to the end than we are at the beginning of this current pricing sequence
2016-03-10 17:07:12 fib1618: and a compliment for the suggested Elliott count
2016-03-10 17:07:23 fib1618: remember
2016-03-10 17:07:37 fib1618: Elliott is just a guideline in all this
2016-03-10 17:07:53 fib1618: it provides a way to share where we might be in a pattern sequence
2016-03-10 17:08:16 fib1618: but not necessarily what "is"
2016-03-10 17:08:29 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .86
2016-03-10 17:08:42 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2016-03-10 17:08:57 fib1618: so that should keep prices from moving lower in any important way for now
2016-03-10 17:09:08 fib1618: TM TRIN at .88
2016-03-10 17:09:18 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2016-03-10 17:09:21 fib1618: so...
2016-03-10 17:09:34 fib1618: we seem to be getting exactly what we figured
2016-03-10 17:09:48 fib1618: prices finding resistance at their 200 day EMA's
2016-03-10 17:10:27 fib1618: with underlying breadth providing enough of a cushion to keep prices from moving south
2016-03-10 17:10:32 fib1618: and a consolidation results
2016-03-10 17:10:43 fib1618: let me see how the BETS is doing
2016-03-10 17:10:45 fib1618: one sec
2016-03-10 17:11:44 fib1618: +10
2016-03-10 17:11:47 fib1618: improving
2016-03-10 17:11:53 fib1618: slow but sure
2016-03-10 17:12:20 fib1618: just need three chart changes from bear to bull and we have an accumulation signal
2016-03-10 17:12:37 fib1618: let me check around the DP charts - one sec
2016-03-10 17:13:24 fib1618: P/C ratios look toppy
2016-03-10 17:14:22 fib1618: sentiment bullish to neutral for last weekend
2016-03-10 17:14:39 fib1618: 65% bears on Mark's sentiment
2016-03-10 17:15:37 fib1618: nice reversal bar today in gold
2016-03-10 17:15:47 fib1618: we should see $1300 next week
2016-03-10 17:16:34 fib1618: yields on the 10 year continue to disagree with the Bond CEF A/D line
2016-03-10 17:16:41 fib1618: pattern looks good
2016-03-10 17:16:50 fib1618: so something is gonna to give there
2016-03-10 17:17:25 fib1618: looks like we have a double bottom now in the CRB index at 155
2016-03-10 17:17:38 fib1618: probably a snapback to previous longer term support
2016-03-10 17:18:00 fib1618: with a little triangle there
2016-03-10 17:18:13 fib1618: so let's look for a upside thrust in the next day or two
2016-03-10 17:18:49 turkey: yes expecting that on crb
2016-03-10 17:19:10 fib1618: got a bullish crossover of the 20 day EMA above the 50 day EMA today in WTIC
2016-03-10 17:19:29 fib1618: SAR stop at 34.31
2016-03-10 17:19:56 fib1618: could see a sharp $4 move here pretty soon
2016-03-10 17:20:01 fib1618: right at resistance now
2016-03-10 17:20:12 fib1618: the 200 day EMA should eventually hold the the pattern in check
2016-03-10 17:20:22 fib1618: and that's at $42.71
2016-03-10 17:20:47 fib1618: back to the metals
2016-03-10 17:20:57 fib1618: silver is showing good strength right now
2016-03-10 17:21:12 fib1618: finding support at the 200 and 20 day EMA's today
2016-03-10 17:21:24 fib1618: in fact
2016-03-10 17:21:32 fib1618: the whole action is looking very good right now
2016-03-10 17:22:01 fib1618: you'll notice this bullish interplay if you bring up our EMA Trinity (20,50,200 EMA) on the daily chart
2016-03-10 17:22:33 fib1618: copper has rallied up to its 200 day EMA
2016-03-10 17:22:36 fib1618: and is now in a triangle
2016-03-10 17:22:49 fib1618: the market seems to be in good rhythm right now
2016-03-10 17:22:59 fib1618: as it relates to triangles and the 200 day EMA
2016-03-10 17:23:09 fib1618: for the bears
2016-03-10 17:23:16 fib1618: if the 200 holds
2016-03-10 17:23:29 fib1618: the next several weeks after that would see a lot of price decay
2016-03-10 17:23:40 fib1618: and that should lead to a tradable low
2016-03-10 17:23:48 fib1618: in theory, of course
2016-03-10 17:24:00 fib1618: and that's about it
2016-03-10 17:24:04 fib1618: anything else?
2016-03-10 17:24:45 turkey: nope
2016-03-10 17:28:45 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-03-10 17:28:48 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-03-10 17:28:57 fib1618: everyone have a super duper weekend
2016-03-10 17:29:06 fib1618: and we'll see how things are moving and shaking on Tuesday
2016-03-10 17:29:07 fib1618: good night
2016-03-10 17:29:31 turkey: night

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