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Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-02-09 16:00:11 fib1618: good day
2016-02-09 16:00:15 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-02-09 16:00:32 turkey: great!
2016-02-09 16:00:43 tuna: great thanks
2016-02-09 16:00:44 fib1618: hey are you?!?!
2016-02-09 16:01:02 fib1618: thanks for stopping by
2016-02-09 16:01:04 thespookyone: excellent
2016-02-09 16:01:15 turkey: It great to be back!
2016-02-09 16:01:27 fib1618: it's like the old days!
2016-02-09 16:01:33 turkey: yeah!!!
2016-02-09 16:02:20 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-02-09 16:03:03 tuna: when we get to the Comp and NDX
2016-02-09 16:06:31 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-02-09 16:07:12 fib1618: after moving back below the zero line on Monday
2016-02-09 16:07:19 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continued lower today
2016-02-09 16:07:30 fib1618: ending up with a -19 reading
2016-02-09 16:07:44 fib1618: in this break below zero on Monday
2016-02-09 16:08:06 fib1618: we also moved below blip support seen at the zero line at the end of January
2016-02-09 16:08:16 fib1618: this now completes the counter trend move to the upside
2016-02-09 16:08:51 fib1618: as we begin, what should be, our final bottoming process for the decline that started in November
2016-02-09 16:09:07 fib1618: looking at the components
2016-02-09 16:09:20 fib1618: and we see that both the 10% and 5% Trends were not able to move above their zero lines
2016-02-09 16:09:44 fib1618: which, in turn, caused the severe downside market conditions on Monday as the MCO itself moved back below the zero line
2016-02-09 16:10:08 fib1618: looking at the price bars
2016-02-09 16:10:13 fib1618: and we see a mid range close
2016-02-09 16:10:26 fib1618: which, with the downside gap of Monday, suggests a hesitation day
2016-02-09 16:10:36 fib1618: before moving still lower by Thursday
2016-02-09 16:10:53 fib1618: at this point
2016-02-09 16:11:05 fib1618: we do not have any divergences in place between the CO MCO and price
2016-02-09 16:11:40 fib1618: so the best possible scenario for the buyers would be that we have a near term bottom to where we rally for a week to maybe a slightly higher high
2016-02-09 16:11:50 fib1618: before finally moving down to provide this same divergence
2016-02-09 16:11:56 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2016-02-09 16:12:08 fib1618: and we see what could be an inverted ledge formation
2016-02-09 16:12:16 fib1618: which would support this outside scenario
2016-02-09 16:12:38 fib1618: unfortunately though
2016-02-09 16:12:44 fib1618: with the NASDAQ already as weak as it is
2016-02-09 16:13:11 fib1618: it's not a good probability that a reflex rally would be able to hold on any bullish attempt to stabilize
2016-02-09 16:13:18 fib1618: let's see how the NYSE Composite breadth MCO looks
2016-02-09 16:13:43 fib1618: and we have the same structure as the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2016-02-09 16:13:50 fib1618: however, we have a lower reading here than the CO of -28
2016-02-09 16:14:39 fib1618: this would suggest that there has been a pick up in reducing exposure in the interest rate sensitive issues near term
2016-02-09 16:14:59 fib1618: which could a simple case of profit taking after an extended move
2016-02-09 16:15:26 fib1618: the Composite components are pretty much in line with the CO data
2016-02-09 16:16:05 fib1618: with an outside chance of an inverted ledge in play here as well with the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2016-02-09 16:16:24 fib1618: where tops beneath tops continue to control the intermediate term pattern
2016-02-09 16:16:31 fib1618: and as long as this remain intact
2016-02-09 16:16:40 fib1618: the path of least resistance remains to the downside
2016-02-09 16:16:48 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-02-09 16:17:13 fib1618: and here we have much more technical damage in place compared to the NYSE Composite or CO MCO's
2016-02-09 16:17:34 fib1618: as the pattern has broken below the reaction lows of mid January
2016-02-09 16:18:07 fib1618: this would then suggest that the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM will also make lower pattern lows during this current downside sequence
2016-02-09 16:18:44 fib1618: and with the lack of being able to fill the downside pattern gap from Monday today
2016-02-09 16:19:17 fib1618: it would appear that today's effort was more of a technical snapback challenge of the previous counter trend pattern
2016-02-09 16:19:26 fib1618: no less the reaction lows of late August
2016-02-09 16:19:37 fib1618: if this is correct
2016-02-09 16:19:51 fib1618: then we should start to accelerate lower again as soon as Wednesday...Thursday at the latest
2016-02-09 16:20:18 fib1618: small point change in the NDX breadth MCO tonight
2016-02-09 16:20:42 fib1618: as we have already seen a break of the previous NDX breadth MCSUM lows of last month
2016-02-09 16:20:50 tuna: Yellen speaks at 10:00 a.m Eastern
2016-02-09 16:21:23 fib1618: with the hesitation pattern providing horizontal snapback action to the September lows
2016-02-09 16:21:28 fib1618: had a question
2016-02-09 16:21:55 tuna: How to reconcile possible MCO divergence
2016-02-09 16:22:03 tuna: with new Summation lows
2016-02-09 16:22:20 fib1618: you're dealing with two sisters
2016-02-09 16:22:27 fib1618: they come from the same parents
2016-02-09 16:22:37 fib1618: but they have two distinctive personalities
2016-02-09 16:23:02 fib1618: making lower lows in the Summation are akin to the intermediate to longer term cadence of the price pattern structure
2016-02-09 16:23:05 fib1618: in this case
2016-02-09 16:23:15 fib1618: the deeper into negative territory
2016-02-09 16:23:57 fib1618: the more time it's going to take this sister to strip off its more conservative nature in doing things than the more moderate sister wishes
2016-02-09 16:24:05 fib1618: the divergences mean something
2016-02-09 16:24:24 fib1618: but it all has to work together to work its magic
2016-02-09 16:24:30 fib1618: looking at it another way
2016-02-09 16:24:41 fib1618: any divergences that we see from this point forward for the MCO's
2016-02-09 16:24:48 fib1618: are going to provide a price floor
2016-02-09 16:24:58 fib1618: but not the end of the negative action
2016-02-09 16:25:09 fib1618: to where any rallies will tend to be shallow and short lived
2016-02-09 16:25:21 fib1618: but any sell offs will be easier to absorb by a rising pool of liquidity
2016-02-09 16:25:30 fib1618: you're starting to see this now in the intraday action
2016-02-09 16:25:39 fib1618: where the MCSUM promises lower lows
2016-02-09 16:25:51 fib1618: but the MCO is showing that we have a lessening of selling pressure
2016-02-09 16:26:09 fib1618: to where...unless the pressure is kept consistent
2016-02-09 16:26:38 fib1618: prices will rush higher as a basketball might do in the deep end of a swimming pool if you're not holding it under water with both hands
2016-02-09 16:26:54 fib1618: so the more important, longer term divergence
2016-02-09 16:27:04 fib1618: the one that will actually turn the trend from down to up
2016-02-09 16:27:10 fib1618: is when the MCSUM provides this divergence
2016-02-09 16:27:21 fib1618: have the MCO saying one thing
2016-02-09 16:27:25 fib1618: and the MCSUM saying the other
2016-02-09 16:27:45 fib1618: and because of the disagreement between time chop
2016-02-09 16:27:59 fib1618: make sense?
2016-02-09 16:28:07 fib1618: did I answer your question?
2016-02-09 16:28:45 fib1618: also remember
2016-02-09 16:28:47 tuna: kinda like a pumping action for mid term bottoms and tops
2016-02-09 16:28:58 fib1618: that the...yes
2016-02-09 16:29:16 fib1618: trends, like everything else in the market, need to be able to build on themselves on all time scales
2016-02-09 16:29:22 fib1618: if the short term is bullish
2016-02-09 16:29:27 fib1618: but the intermediate term is bearish
2016-02-09 16:29:32 fib1618: it's not likely you're going to trend
2016-02-09 16:30:09 fib1618: each McClellan tool measures the level of liquidity from which prices are able to feed off of
2016-02-09 16:30:23 fib1618: so...we had the MCO above the zero line last week
2016-02-09 16:30:28 fib1618: but the components didn't agree
2016-02-09 16:30:52 fib1618: result...a counter trend rally that was comparably shallow to the previous price decline
2016-02-09 16:31:05 fib1618: but if we have a positive MCO with positive components
2016-02-09 16:31:12 fib1618: the result is the same counter trend rally
2016-02-09 16:31:31 fib1618: but with a higher amount of price amplitude compared to the previous trend
2016-02-09 16:31:49 fib1618: and if we have the MCO and its components plus MCSUM all positive
2016-02-09 16:32:05 fib1618: prices can then break free of the downside default
2016-02-09 16:32:33 fib1618: so the bottom line here is
2016-02-09 16:32:48 fib1618: we can have a bottom to work with into next week
2016-02-09 16:32:57 fib1618: but the tradable low may not happen until early April
2016-02-09 16:33:01 tuna: I'm starting to look at the MCO as a daily indicator and Summation as Weekly
2016-02-09 16:33:17 fib1618: that would be correct
2016-02-09 16:33:29 fib1618: the MCO is a short term trending indicator of the A/D line
2016-02-09 16:33:39 fib1618: this short term is measured for a 4-6 week period
2016-02-09 16:33:54 fib1618: the MCSUM is an intermediate term trending indicator of the A/D line
2016-02-09 16:34:06 fib1618: this intermediate term is measured from 4-12 weeks
2016-02-09 16:34:28 fib1618: so each sister has its own distinctive personality of what it provides
2016-02-09 16:34:57 fib1618: one more conservative (investors, MCSUM) and one more moderate (traders, MCO)
2016-02-09 16:35:14 tuna: Fantastic explanation. Thanks Dave
2016-02-09 16:35:22 fib1618: and then all other technical indicators work off of this same information
2016-02-09 16:35:36 fib1618: you can then measure price momentum
2016-02-09 16:35:43 fib1618: you can measure trending activity
2016-02-09 16:35:58 fib1618: without this information then
2016-02-09 16:36:01 fib1618: you are blind
2016-02-09 16:36:10 fib1618: you're guessing on what's next
2016-02-09 16:36:21 fib1618: onward
2016-02-09 16:36:50 fib1618: after the SPX moved back below its zero line on Monday
2016-02-09 16:37:00 fib1618: we had our typical snapback to or towards the zero line today
2016-02-09 16:37:11 fib1618: and wound up with a reading of -7
2016-02-09 16:37:33 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor on the daily chart
2016-02-09 16:38:17 fib1618: and you can how today's bounce magically bounced off the longer term rising bottoms line connecting the two bottoms seen in early and mid January
2016-02-09 16:38:24 fib1618: so now that's complete
2016-02-09 16:38:39 fib1618: we are relatively balanced between buyers and sellers
2016-02-09 16:38:51 fib1618: and one side is about to take critical control of the pattern
2016-02-09 16:39:09 fib1618: looking at the components
2016-02-09 16:39:29 fib1618: and we see that the 10% Trend also snapped back toward the 5% Trend today after breaking below it on Monday
2016-02-09 16:39:34 fib1618: taken together
2016-02-09 16:39:52 fib1618: this would indicate that another round of selling is about to hit the market as soon as Wednesday
2016-02-09 16:40:12 fib1618: though it might be a bit tempered due to the Chinese New Year that started today
2016-02-09 16:40:29 fib1618: but on Thursday we should have a better reaction of what to expect
2016-02-09 16:40:46 fib1618: as with the previous MCO's
2016-02-09 16:41:05 fib1618: important near term support remains at the late January reaction lows
2016-02-09 16:41:58 fib1618: but with our being trapped between a rock (the zero line) and a hard place (the rising trendline), any break below this same trend will likely cut down and through this end January period without too much of a problem
2016-02-09 16:42:00 fib1618: and with it
2016-02-09 16:42:26 fib1618: prices will likely suffer sharp losses as this double level of support is broken
2016-02-09 16:42:40 fib1618: in this case
2016-02-09 16:42:45 fib1618: the intraday price lows of January
2016-02-09 16:43:09 fib1618: now on the flip side
2016-02-09 16:43:35 fib1618: we do have bullish divergence currently between prices and the SPX MCO in relation to the mid January period
2016-02-09 16:43:40 fib1618: but it's on the sloppy side
2016-02-09 16:44:23 fib1618: and the action in secondaries (NASDAQ) doesn't provide an air of confidence that we will hold these same levels
2016-02-09 16:44:54 fib1618: moving to the cream of the crop stocks that make up the OEX breadth MCO
2016-02-09 16:45:05 fib1618: and here we moved slightly below the zero line in Monday
2016-02-09 16:45:22 fib1618: and snapped back with a small point change toward the zero line today
2016-02-09 16:45:31 fib1618: settling with a reading of -2
2016-02-09 16:45:45 fib1618: sorry...make that -1
2016-02-09 16:46:07 fib1618: note also that the OEX components are current compressed
2016-02-09 16:46:36 fib1618: while the OEX breadth MCSUM is just below natural resistance at the -750 level
2016-02-09 16:46:39 fib1618: all in all then
2016-02-09 16:46:53 fib1618: we're about to see this compression point unwind
2016-02-09 16:47:14 fib1618: and this would mean another 1%-2% move in the major market averages
2016-02-09 16:47:22 fib1618: so volatility should continue near term
2016-02-09 16:47:52 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO bounced off near its zero line today
2016-02-09 16:48:03 fib1618: and ended up with a reading of +9
2016-02-09 16:48:23 fib1618: so the stocks that money is supporting right now is those of high "value"
2016-02-09 16:48:33 fib1618: those that have a global market share
2016-02-09 16:49:25 fib1618: we'll also note that the Dow breadth MCSUM is now in its 3rd week of moving in a counter trend fashion
2016-02-09 16:49:53 fib1618: and since we know that the MCO will tend to stay on one side or the other of the zero line for periods of 4-6 weeks on an historical basis
2016-02-09 16:50:00 fib1618: the buyers here are running out of time
2016-02-09 16:50:35 fib1618: and they're also moving closer to the -500 level in this effort
2016-02-09 16:50:46 fib1618: at this point
2016-02-09 16:51:25 fib1618: it looks like that we're still on target for a possible price bottom by the end of next week
2016-02-09 16:51:34 fib1618: which just so happens to be OPEX
2016-02-09 16:51:37 fib1618: which also means
2016-02-09 16:51:41 fib1618: tomorrow is WWW
2016-02-09 16:52:05 fib1618: and what a better day to dump issues into strong hands than that
2016-02-09 16:52:14 fib1618: we'll see
2016-02-09 16:52:35 fib1618: small point change in the MID breadth MCO as well
2016-02-09 16:53:14 fib1618: with today's bounce coming off near natural support at the -25 level
2016-02-09 16:53:31 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO components remain on the weak side
2016-02-09 16:53:56 fib1618: as much of this relationship was last week between the MCO and its components
2016-02-09 16:54:25 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO looks to be leading to lower now
2016-02-09 16:54:44 fib1618: though until the end of January reaction lows are taken out
2016-02-09 16:55:33 fib1618: we have remain in a wait and see mode of whether this same leadership is going to lead to some sort of a capitulation sequence or not
2016-02-09 16:55:50 fib1618: Elliott wise
2016-02-09 16:56:10 fib1618: looks like a clean impulsive pattern in the SML from the beginning of December highs
2016-02-09 16:56:16 fib1618: so unless this extends
2016-02-09 16:56:41 fib1618: we should be building up to a completion of this same downside sequence within the next 2 weeks
2016-02-09 16:56:57 tuna: Just curious, are most of the small caps listed on the NASDAQ?
2016-02-09 16:57:01 fib1618: one concern here as a chartist
2016-02-09 16:57:27 fib1618: is the price pattern not being able to fully snapback up to the previous lows of end September
2016-02-09 16:57:45 fib1618: which suggests that the market rhythm is quite weak right now
2016-02-09 16:57:52 fib1618: no - some small caps are on the NYSE
2016-02-09 16:58:53 fib1618: moving to the TM breadth MCO
2016-02-09 16:59:03 fib1618: and here we see that not only did we go lower today
2016-02-09 16:59:13 fib1618: but we also moved below the end January levels
2016-02-09 16:59:23 fib1618: and this would suggest the the total market is sagging here
2016-02-09 16:59:48 fib1618: which then provides the further insight that we're not done yet in purging the system of weak hands
2016-02-09 17:00:26 fib1618: but it wouldn't take much to shake that proverbial tree given the many cracks in the spokes of the bigger wheel that we're seeing here
2016-02-09 17:00:28 fib1618: so...
2016-02-09 17:00:32 fib1618: the market remains heavy
2016-02-09 17:00:48 fib1618: and in the position to further price decay
2016-02-09 17:01:18 fib1618: the last two days have been interesting
2016-02-09 17:01:25 fib1618: as we sold off hard Monday morning
2016-02-09 17:01:36 fib1618: only to cut the losses in the afternoon session
2016-02-09 17:01:45 fib1618: Tuesday had another rough start
2016-02-09 17:02:07 fib1618: with no sign of buying follow through from Monday's late rally
2016-02-09 17:02:18 fib1618: up we went to neutral
2016-02-09 17:02:20 fib1618: down again
2016-02-09 17:02:25 fib1618: back up to a higher high
2016-02-09 17:02:31 fib1618: and then we just drifted lower
2016-02-09 17:02:44 fib1618: this a good sign that there was some sort of intervention today
2016-02-09 17:03:17 fib1618: where an institution (or institutions) are making a line in the sand
2016-02-09 17:03:26 fib1618: and providing capital in order to hold that line
2016-02-09 17:03:31 fib1618: but once it's used up
2016-02-09 17:03:36 fib1618: there's no follow through
2016-02-09 17:03:47 fib1618: and this usually leads to some sort of severe shake out
2016-02-09 17:04:00 fib1618: since there are no takers at these levels
2016-02-09 17:04:12 fib1618: even when prodded to do so
2016-02-09 17:04:24 fib1618: let's see how the volume side looks
2016-02-09 17:04:32 turkey: rare +1250 tick that came out of nowhere. Maybe that was the intervention...ha ha
2016-02-09 17:05:09 fib1618: could had been
2016-02-09 17:05:16 fib1618: what we used to call a "buy program"
2016-02-09 17:05:50 fib1618: of which I'm sure the same interest rate to equity price algorithms are still used today
2016-02-09 17:06:06 turkey: yes, marked the high of day.
2016-02-09 17:06:16 fib1618: but you could feel the attempt to hold
2016-02-09 17:06:30 fib1618: which only goes to prove
2016-02-09 17:06:50 fib1618: that you can lead a trader to water...but you can't make him drink the kool aid [smile]
2016-02-09 17:07:08 fib1618: traders are smarter than they used to be
2016-02-09 17:07:29 fib1618: since they also have software programs that make of these decisions for them
2016-02-09 17:07:55 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's
2016-02-09 17:08:11 fib1618: and we see that both are not showing the same degree of downside action right now
2016-02-09 17:08:17 fib1618: which suggests a couple of things
2016-02-09 17:08:52 fib1618: one...that much of any selling here is a bit more heavy in higher weighted issues that can put a drag on an index
2016-02-09 17:08:55 fib1618: and just as quickly
2016-02-09 17:09:13 fib1618: allow it to move sharply in the other direction once this selling is past
2016-02-09 17:09:17 fib1618: and two, in the same breath, we are seeing a lessening of selling pressure now as compared to the beginning of January
2016-02-09 17:10:07 fib1618: another way to look at it is...
2016-02-09 17:10:16 fib1618: the January decline was the willing sellers
2016-02-09 17:10:29 fib1618: the current decline are those who are the unwilling to do so
2016-02-09 17:10:38 fib1618: this is why we're as choppy as we are
2016-02-09 17:10:52 fib1618: there's no fluidity to the pattern
2016-02-09 17:10:56 fib1618: and prices chop
2016-02-09 17:11:04 fib1618: but with a downside bias
2016-02-09 17:11:34 fib1618: so today would had been a day where the market moved to clear out the sell stops set below current levels
2016-02-09 17:11:39 tuna: unwilling meaning they maybe forced soon?
2016-02-09 17:11:40 fib1618: and once they were executed
2016-02-09 17:11:42 fib1618: up we went
2016-02-09 17:12:05 fib1618: "unwilling" meaning lack of experience and keeping a position because you're emotionally tied to it
2016-02-09 17:12:26 fib1618: think of the psychology this way
2016-02-09 17:12:29 fib1618: for the last 3 years
2016-02-09 17:12:44 fib1618: every sell off was accompanied by high levels of bearishness
2016-02-09 17:12:50 fib1618: that each top was THE top
2016-02-09 17:13:04 fib1618: after a while of getting burned time and time again
2016-02-09 17:13:27 fib1618: these same bears begin the process of being "re-educated"
2016-02-09 17:14:06 fib1618: that each sequential sell off is more an opportunity to buy and not that of being short
2016-02-09 17:14:14 fib1618: this is why as we moved along
2016-02-09 17:14:24 fib1618: each decline became shallower and shallower
2016-02-09 17:14:38 fib1618: to the point in which we moved sideways
2016-02-09 17:14:54 fib1618: in a battle in trying to pick a bottom
2016-02-09 17:15:01 fib1618: and a battle in trying to pick a top
2016-02-09 17:15:09 fib1618: this is how rounding tops occur
2016-02-09 17:15:16 fib1618: now...the psychology is that every turn higher is a bottom
2016-02-09 17:15:55 fib1618: because the majority of traders have been "conditioned" to work the market in this fashion
2016-02-09 17:16:24 fib1618: so the "unwilling" are those who refuse to sell under this new blueprint
2016-02-09 17:16:28 fib1618: and don't dare to sell
2016-02-09 17:16:30 fib1618: because..
2016-02-09 17:16:32 fib1618: well..
2016-02-09 17:16:35 fib1618: eventually..
2016-02-09 17:16:41 fib1618: we're going back to test the highs again
2016-02-09 17:16:46 fib1618: errr...right?
2016-02-09 17:16:49 fib1618: [smile]
2016-02-09 17:16:55 fib1618: it's all marketing
2016-02-09 17:16:59 tuna: 5 years
2016-02-09 17:17:17 fib1618: took a long time to change the tone of the majority from bear to bull
2016-02-09 17:17:29 fib1618: it's far easier to be bearish than bullish
2016-02-09 17:17:51 fib1618: because...well...there's a lot of fundamental stuff out there that says so
2016-02-09 17:17:59 fib1618: to where now...
2016-02-09 17:18:04 fib1618: all of a sudden
2016-02-09 17:18:41 fib1618: what was a slow, methodical turning of the cruise ship from up to down
2016-02-09 17:18:47 fib1618: you look around
2016-02-09 17:19:07 fib1618: and there are a whole lot of sectors and stocks that are already down 20% to 30% or more
2016-02-09 17:19:09 fib1618: and still
2016-02-09 17:19:17 fib1618: it "feels" like a bull market
2016-02-09 17:19:20 fib1618: doesn't it?
2016-02-09 17:19:29 fib1618: so what needs to happen here is simple
2016-02-09 17:19:47 fib1618: the market MUST sell off sharply to shake the tree of these same traders
2016-02-09 17:20:02 fib1618: to convince them that we are in the beginning of a longer term bear market
2016-02-09 17:20:19 fib1618: and THAT's when we'll have our intermediate term low
2016-02-09 17:20:25 fib1618: and while we rally off of that
2016-02-09 17:20:31 fib1618: the wall of worry will be back
2016-02-09 17:20:37 fib1618: until...the next top
2016-02-09 17:20:54 fib1618: quick observation
2016-02-09 17:21:05 fib1618: I don't know about all message boards
2016-02-09 17:21:09 fib1618: but here we are
2016-02-09 17:21:20 fib1618: down more than 10%
2016-02-09 17:21:50 fib1618: and I'm not seeing the kind of bearish tone that we have seen in all of the time that the market was rising
2016-02-09 17:22:18 fib1618: sure we have the all the time, come rain or shine, bears out there
2016-02-09 17:22:34 fib1618: but nothing that would be foaming at the mouth bearish sentiment
2016-02-09 17:22:42 fib1618: but still
2016-02-09 17:22:57 fib1618: we're down over 10% - 20% - 30% from the highs of last year!
2016-02-09 17:23:07 fib1618: we had the same feel in 2001
2016-02-09 17:23:19 fib1618: where the NASDAQ was going to bottom at 3600
2016-02-09 17:23:24 fib1618: then it was 2900
2016-02-09 17:23:29 fib1618: just a correction
2016-02-09 17:23:34 fib1618: and then...
2016-02-09 17:23:39 fib1618: it kept falling apart
2016-02-09 17:23:59 fib1618: and all those who were unwilling to sell their issues because they were good longer term plays
2016-02-09 17:24:08 fib1618: wasn't pretty
2016-02-09 17:24:14 fib1618: it was sad
2016-02-09 17:24:22 fib1618: happened in 2008 too with a different bearish platform
2016-02-09 17:24:28 fib1618: bottom line
2016-02-09 17:24:45 fib1618: the market will continue to move in the direction in which the majority doesn't follow
2016-02-09 17:24:57 fib1618: and I talk too much
2016-02-09 17:24:59 fib1618: back to work
2016-02-09 17:25:10 fib1618: anyway
2016-02-09 17:25:20 fib1618: we're not seeing volume leading here to the downside
2016-02-09 17:25:44 fib1618: which gives some resemblance of short term hope for the buyers over the next couple of days
2016-02-09 17:25:51 fib1618: and for the longer term
2016-02-09 17:26:14 fib1618: this is something that we generally see as the market attempts to create an internal low
2016-02-09 17:26:35 fib1618: with that said
2016-02-09 17:26:50 fib1618: the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's are showing severe weakness right now
2016-02-09 17:26:57 fib1618: and as we know by our experience
2016-02-09 17:27:07 fib1618: without the secondaries showing internal support
2016-02-09 17:27:20 fib1618: it's not at all likely that a advancing price sequence can be created
2016-02-09 17:27:23 fib1618: plus
2016-02-09 17:27:35 fib1618: this also tells us that liquidity remains contracted
2016-02-09 17:27:50 fib1618: and is moving into areas that provide more value than growth
2016-02-09 17:27:52 tuna: NASDAQ, NDX Summations look ill
2016-02-09 17:28:33 fib1618: it's confirming what we saw in breadth
2016-02-09 17:28:37 fib1618: and that's a good thing
2016-02-09 17:28:40 fib1618: unless you're long
2016-02-09 17:28:57 fib1618: as you have everything in gear to the downside
2016-02-09 17:29:08 fib1618: so prices can trend in this same direction
2016-02-09 17:29:17 fib1618: important information to know
2016-02-09 17:29:42 fib1618: the SPX volume MCO echos its breadth cousin
2016-02-09 17:29:52 fib1618: but the OEX volume MCO is leading to the downside here
2016-02-09 17:30:06 fib1618: and much weaker than its breadth counterpart
2016-02-09 17:34:10 fib1618: also note that the OEX volume MCSUM is finding resistance at the -1000 level
2016-02-09 17:34:36 fib1618: so any downside follow through on Wednesday would push this indicator toward the next level of natural support at -1250
2016-02-09 17:34:39 fib1618: and when you get this low
2016-02-09 17:34:50 fib1618: these are the levels in which major bottoms can be created
2016-02-09 17:35:21 fib1618: the Dow volume MCO is attempting to hold the -20 level
2016-02-09 17:35:35 fib1618: with a small point upward change today
2016-02-09 17:35:52 fib1618: not a lot of conviction there
2016-02-09 17:36:27 fib1618: small point change as well in the MID volume MCO
2016-02-09 17:36:34 fib1618: so no snapback to the zero line
2016-02-09 17:36:44 tuna: major bottom meaning a couple month rally or end of the bear?
2016-02-09 17:37:17 fib1618: and the last little Indian to move back below the zero line, the SML volume MCO, did so today
2016-02-09 17:37:26 fib1618: hard to tell at this time
2016-02-09 17:37:39 fib1618: but major enough to work with
2016-02-09 17:37:47 fib1618: it's best to keep in mind
2016-02-09 17:37:55 fib1618: that time isn't as important as market "character"
2016-02-09 17:38:09 fib1618: people put too much into time when it comes to the market
2016-02-09 17:38:48 fib1618: better to climb on board and ride it out to wherever it leads than to pull the plug either prematurely or later than you need to
2016-02-09 17:39:05 fib1618: what we'll know though
2016-02-09 17:39:35 fib1618: is the approximate amount of time that will need to pass before a turn will be recognized to take place
2016-02-09 17:39:44 fib1618: and that's pretty good
2016-02-09 17:40:05 fib1618: back to the SML volume MCO
2016-02-09 17:40:22 fib1618: it would appear that this is giving an opportunity for the buyers to step in here on Wednesday
2016-02-09 17:40:41 fib1618: but if they don't have a lot of friends helping them in trying to turn things around
2016-02-09 17:40:54 fib1618: Thursday and Friday are likely to be quite weak
2016-02-09 17:41:08 fib1618: and like the TM breadth MCO
2016-02-09 17:41:15 turkey: that would fit for weird wolly wed...
2016-02-09 17:41:19 fib1618: the TM volume MCO also took out its end January lows today
2016-02-09 17:41:25 fib1618: yep
2016-02-09 17:43:05 fib1618: and this would suggest that we have at least another week of volatility with a downside bias still yet to come so that the rest of the indices can be in a more synchronicratic (is that a word?) harmony
2016-02-09 17:43:11 fib1618: so...
2016-02-09 17:43:54 fib1618: we're starting to get increasing indications that we're seeing a lessening of broad based selling pressure in the market
2016-02-09 17:43:58 fib1618: but at the same time
2016-02-09 17:44:06 fib1618: there isn't enough liquidity to go around to support ever issue
2016-02-09 17:44:08 fib1618: because of this
2016-02-09 17:44:22 fib1618: those issues that are looked upon as "less deserving"
2016-02-09 17:44:38 fib1618: stocks that have nothing to provide while you wait for growth
2016-02-09 17:44:51 fib1618: are not likely to see investment capital come their way
2016-02-09 17:45:12 fib1618: while those issues that provide earnings and dividends will remain in focus
2016-02-09 17:45:19 thespookyone: think gold will make a top of sorts soon?
2016-02-09 17:45:39 fib1618: looking for $1220
2016-02-09 17:45:45 fib1618: lots of resistance there
2016-02-09 17:45:47 thespookyone: excellent
2016-02-09 17:45:50 fib1618: but it's very strong
2016-02-09 17:46:03 fib1618: as it sliced through $1180 yesterday without batting an eyelash
2016-02-09 17:46:06 thespookyone: it is, but the party is getting crowded
2016-02-09 17:46:15 fib1618: lots of shorts getting creamed
2016-02-09 17:46:51 fib1618: we were talking about how traders are manipulated to trade
2016-02-09 17:47:03 fib1618: the gold bugs seem to be not too sure on what to make with this latest rally
2016-02-09 17:47:11 fib1618: do they go long again and get burned?
2016-02-09 17:47:24 fib1618: or do they just wait for this spike to burn out?
2016-02-09 17:47:33 fib1618: longer term
2016-02-09 17:47:44 fib1618: we're still below a major declining tops line
2016-02-09 17:47:58 fib1618: but the rounding bottom is suggesting a bottom
2016-02-09 17:48:04 fib1618: and you know rounding bottoms
2016-02-09 17:48:15 fib1618: they tend to turn into cup and handle patterns
2016-02-09 17:48:17 fib1618: [smile]
2016-02-09 17:48:24 thespookyone: true [smile]
2016-02-09 17:48:59 fib1618: so my thoughts there is for some high level consolidation between $1180 and $1220 for a month or two for the handle
2016-02-09 17:49:05 fib1618: and then we'll be off to the races
2016-02-09 17:49:11 thespookyone: thanks!
2016-02-09 17:49:21 turkey: think maybe double bottom in oil? I am pretty sure it took out lows today.
2016-02-09 17:49:31 fib1618: we'll know if it's for real by watching the penny stocks
2016-02-09 17:49:33 fib1618: watch CDE
2016-02-09 17:49:57 fib1618: oil is too slick to work with right now (get it? too slick! - HA!)
2016-02-09 17:50:09 fib1618: let me take a look
2016-02-09 17:50:24 turkey: oh
2016-02-09 17:50:56 turkey: I actually bought that low. but I can be kinda slick
2016-02-09 17:51:13 fib1618: you slick as they come
2016-02-09 17:51:18 fib1618: I would wait
2016-02-09 17:51:22 turkey: for sure..
2016-02-09 17:51:28 fib1618: the pattern looks like it needs another wash out intermediate term
2016-02-09 17:51:35 tuna: $20 here we come
2016-02-09 17:51:37 fib1618: and IRAN is flooding the market with cheaper oil
2016-02-09 17:52:17 turkey: OK, I won't stick around too long.
2016-02-09 17:52:33 fib1618: if you look at the MCO compared to today's close in the WTIC
2016-02-09 17:52:39 fib1618: you'll see that it was confirmed
2016-02-09 17:52:42 fib1618: no divergence
2016-02-09 17:52:49 fib1618: like gold
2016-02-09 17:52:52 turkey: cool
2016-02-09 17:52:58 fib1618: oil generally makes rounding bottoms
2016-02-09 17:53:03 fib1618: most commodities do
2016-02-09 17:53:10 fib1618: stocks make spike bottoms and rounding tops
2016-02-09 17:53:18 fib1618: commodities just the opposite
2016-02-09 17:53:38 fib1618: you'll have time to accumulate
2016-02-09 17:53:42 fib1618: let's check the OBV's
2016-02-09 17:54:23 fib1618: the NDX data is suggesting a price low here
2016-02-09 17:54:27 fib1618: but the other indices are not
2016-02-09 17:54:34 fib1618: so we're out of sync
2016-02-09 17:54:39 fib1618: at this point
2016-02-09 17:55:11 fib1618: let's see if we can get the CVI's, STVO's and VTO's all simultaneously "oversold" and then we can look for a low to work with
2016-02-09 17:55:25 fib1618: also...don't forget the Open TRIN's in all this
2016-02-09 17:55:30 fib1618: let's see how they're doing
2016-02-09 17:55:49 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .81
2016-02-09 17:55:57 fib1618: (suckers)
2016-02-09 17:56:08 fib1618: Open 10 at .94
2016-02-09 17:56:27 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.08
2016-02-09 17:56:47 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.07
2016-02-09 17:56:53 fib1618: need 1.10 or higher to bottom
2016-02-09 17:56:57 fib1618: getting close though
2016-02-09 17:57:02 fib1618: but we need the NYSE to confirm
2016-02-09 17:57:16 fib1618: TM TRIN at .95
2016-02-09 17:57:25 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.06
2016-02-09 17:57:29 fib1618: so...
2016-02-09 17:57:33 fib1618: we have room to move lower
2016-02-09 17:57:56 fib1618: what we need to hear here is for the news agencies to break in again during the day on the radio to report on the market
2016-02-09 17:58:06 fib1618: then we'll know that we're close to the low
2016-02-09 17:58:20 fib1618: all that's important for now is that the lows of January hold in all of the MCO's
2016-02-09 17:58:30 fib1618: doesn't matter how low we go price wise
2016-02-09 17:58:38 fib1618: as long as we hold divergence
2016-02-09 17:58:41 fib1618: the deeper we go
2016-02-09 17:58:44 fib1618: the better the bottom
2016-02-09 17:58:52 fib1618: let me check the moment
2016-02-09 17:59:46 fib1618: NAAD line is falling apart
2016-02-09 17:59:53 fib1618: so is the NAUD
2016-02-09 18:00:22 fib1618: -60
2016-02-09 18:00:28 fib1618: we're losing it
2016-02-09 18:00:37 fib1618: belly up time for the bulls
2016-02-09 18:00:43 fib1618: here and NOW
2016-02-09 18:00:48 tuna: was it -30 Saturday?
2016-02-09 18:00:59 fib1618: it was -35 this past weekend
2016-02-09 18:01:06 fib1618: -30 the week before
2016-02-09 18:01:09 fib1618: so we're losing it
2016-02-09 18:01:29 fib1618: futures are sagging
2016-02-09 18:01:32 fib1618: this doesn't look good
2016-02-09 18:01:49 fib1618: ND is holding up though
2016-02-09 18:01:57 fib1618: so that's something for the buyers to hang their cap on overnight
2016-02-09 18:01:59 fib1618: anything else?
2016-02-09 18:02:16 tuna: Remember Yellen talks tomorrow lot of whipping
2016-02-09 18:02:48 fib1618: she has no power here
2016-02-09 18:03:53 fib1618: money is already moving out
2016-02-09 18:04:00 fib1618: and that's all you need to know
2016-02-09 18:04:04 fib1618: follow the money
2016-02-09 18:04:21 fib1618: anything else?
2016-02-09 18:04:35 thespookyone: thx, great chat
2016-02-09 18:04:49 turkey: thanks, good night!
2016-02-09 18:04:50 fib1618: always fun when there's things to talk about
2016-02-09 18:04:50 tuna: yes thanks great chat
2016-02-09 18:04:53 fib1618: OK...
2016-02-09 18:04:57 fib1618: if there's nothing else
2016-02-09 18:05:00 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-02-09 18:05:07 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2016-02-09 18:05:12 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Thursday
2016-02-09 18:05:14 fib1618: good night

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