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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-02-09 16:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-02-09 16:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-02-09 16:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gee...let's see...
2012-02-09 16:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 6 people
2012-02-09 16:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: must be near a top...no interest
2012-02-09 16:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions, comments, problems...the doctor is in!
2012-02-09 16:02:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: shorts not quitting at TT, eh?
2012-02-09 16:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it's a pretty good play actually given where we are
2012-02-09 16:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're playing and focusing on the SPX only
2012-02-09 16:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not looking around
2012-02-09 16:03:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and 50 points and 3 layers deep already
2012-02-09 16:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX and COMPX moved to new highs again today
2012-02-09 16:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK as well
2012-02-09 16:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't get me started
2012-02-09 16:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are certain posters there that are NOT trading...just posting
2012-02-09 16:04:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah
2012-02-09 16:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll leave the finger pointing alone
2012-02-09 16:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing though that we're starting to see for the first time in a long while
2012-02-09 16:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are posts where they're short over 100%
2012-02-09 16:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...when we start to see the dreaded 200% short
2012-02-09 16:04:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2012-02-09 16:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll know that we might be getting close to a point a suffocation
2012-02-09 16:05:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when they go long I'm taking profits...
2012-02-09 16:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will...but it won't be until they cover first
2012-02-09 16:05:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2012-02-09 16:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing on any one's mind
2012-02-09 16:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get DP up and let's take a look at what may be going on
2012-02-09 16:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going again to the 3 year charts
2012-02-09 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continues to unwind from its Tuesday's reading
2012-02-09 16:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains above last weeks lows
2012-02-09 16:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM was able to cross above the +1000 level yesterday
2012-02-09 16:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with its sights squarely on the previous highs seen in 2009 and 2010
2012-02-09 16:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the continued unwinding of the MCO though
2012-02-09 16:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does suggest
2012-02-09 16:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we assumed the last couple of chats
2012-02-09 16:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the air is now starting to get rather thin for the bulls
2012-02-09 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, which is not surprising, we're getting closer and closer to some sort of exhaustion to the MCSUM pattern
2012-02-09 16:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we move below the zero line
2012-02-09 16:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our forward motion remains up
2012-02-09 16:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as an analogy
2012-02-09 16:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have taken our foot off the accelerator pedal, but the car continues to move forward
2012-02-09 16:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO did move to lower lows today
2012-02-09 16:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would give us our second "shot off the bow" that we are, indeed, moving closer to some sort of conclusion in the flow of positive money flow
2012-02-09 16:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2012-02-09 16:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now moved above the March 2010 highs on the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-02-09 16:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leaving us now with one more hurdle before we would get much higher price objectives to work with in the NYA index
2012-02-09 16:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the ruler
2012-02-09 16:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now challenging the MCSUM top of the 3 step pattern produced from the 2009 lows before we had a 4th step top at around the +1500 level
2012-02-09 16:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a current reading of +1344
2012-02-09 16:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are within a weeks worth of trading now from challenging these same highs
2012-02-09 16:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to keep an eye on this to see if we move to this challenge aggressively or with a whimper
2012-02-09 16:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the later suggesting that we will not be able to move above this +1500 level, the former giving us a better chance to do so
2012-02-09 16:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as character is concerned
2012-02-09 16:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last couple of days have shown that the market remains very much in the control of the bulls
2012-02-09 16:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with morning declines, and then breakeven to higher closes when all is said and done
2012-02-09 16:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of rhythm suggests that it's going to be some time before we'll see any kind of price pattern breakdown in the current trend
2012-02-09 16:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that even is if the MCSUM rolls over and starts to move lower from here
2012-02-09 16:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the expectation will be for a sideways consolidation
2012-02-09 16:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...a pause to refresh
2012-02-09 16:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will give the market time to rest before moving into new recovery, and in some cases, all time high territory
2012-02-09 16:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2012-02-09 16:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of the fact that we haven't been able to get better numbers in the NYSE breadth MCO in the last couple of days
2012-02-09 16:19:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we broke to lower lows today
2012-02-09 16:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best opportunity for a MCSUM top remains with the middle part of this month...which would be next week
2012-02-09 16:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is also OPEX
2012-02-09 16:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a 2-3 week period of backing and filling after that
2012-02-09 16:20:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe in and around the 2011 highs
2012-02-09 16:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe just above them
2012-02-09 16:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too soon to say with certainty at this point
2012-02-09 16:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but being reasonable here
2012-02-09 16:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being above the +1000 level on any MCSUM is highly "overbought"
2012-02-09 16:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless the rules are changing here because of something different
2012-02-09 16:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation now becomes in looking for evidence that a halt in the current advancing trend is due and should be worked into our blueprint
2012-02-09 16:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the NASDAQ is doing
2012-02-09 16:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows there as well
2012-02-09 16:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was the number we talked about on Tuesday for the 2010 highs?
2012-02-09 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +640?
2012-02-09 16:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2012-02-09 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh wow
2012-02-09 16:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have something to show you in a moment
2012-02-09 16:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK - +679.
2012-02-09 16:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have a reading today of +660
2012-02-09 16:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so about 19 MCO points away now
2012-02-09 16:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummmm...let me upload a couple of charts
2012-02-09 16:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2012-02-09 16:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat12/nymco020912.png
2012-02-09 16:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat12/namco020912.png
2012-02-09 16:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check out the full stochastic on both charts
2012-02-09 16:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing us that we are near some sort of momentum bottom in the NAMO and NYMO
2012-02-09 16:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we are starting to exhaust here
2012-02-09 16:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what should happen now
2012-02-09 16:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the %D stochastic should snapback to the 50% FIRST before moving below the 20% level
2012-02-09 16:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we move below the 20% level first before an positive cross over
2012-02-09 16:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not finished yet
2012-02-09 16:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the MCO zero line will provide support
2012-02-09 16:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and another wave of buying will hit the markets before we get our exhaustion
2012-02-09 16:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not a bad position to be in right now
2012-02-09 16:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where there is enough momentum continuing to keep prices stable while the short term trend eases
2012-02-09 16:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our first surprise...the NDX breadth MCO bounced higher today
2012-02-09 16:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: diverging with the broader NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2012-02-09 16:32:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: your boy, AAPL, LOL
2012-02-09 16:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor here
2012-02-09 16:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have also taken out the last of the 2011 highs on the NDX breadth MCSUM
2012-02-09 16:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...look at AAPL scream higher!
2012-02-09 16:33:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: OH YEA
2012-02-09 16:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 16!
2012-02-09 16:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2012-02-09 16:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we talk about this time and time again
2012-02-09 16:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you follow the 60/30/10 rule, you would be doing quite well here
2012-02-09 16:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check something
2012-02-09 16:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: goodness
2012-02-09 16:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AAPL isn't even close to being the leading stock in the XLK
2012-02-09 16:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...it is a leader
2012-02-09 16:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...60% of the decision to trade is based on the market environment
2012-02-09 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's friendly
2012-02-09 16:35:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 30% is the leading industry
2012-02-09 16:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tech is leading right now
2012-02-09 16:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the leading stock in the XLK right now?
2012-02-09 16:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: LSI and AMD
2012-02-09 16:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AAPL is now starting to look like Yahoo in 1999
2012-02-09 16:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gap streak gap
2012-02-09 16:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: power higher again
2012-02-09 16:37:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...what a monster
2012-02-09 16:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AAPL, by far, is now the largest company on the planet based on capitalization
2012-02-09 16:38:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: iPad coming March 1st, as well
2012-02-09 16:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the volume!
2012-02-09 16:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 31 million shares
2012-02-09 16:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at 490?
2012-02-09 16:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really unbelievable
2012-02-09 16:38:53 [Message] input -> Chat: I've been long aapl since Feb. 2008 at 131.
2012-02-09 16:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's great news Arthur...congratulations!!
2012-02-09 16:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't get many home runs like this one in your lifetime
2012-02-09 16:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: enjoy it
2012-02-09 16:39:52 [Message] input -> Chat: thanks
2012-02-09 16:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how are you trading it...are you setting rising stops as you go??
2012-02-09 16:41:36 [Message] input -> Chat: i am staying long aapl until the bull market is over in stocks.
2012-02-09 16:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...that's a good plan
2012-02-09 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember
2012-02-09 16:42:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every product has a cycle
2012-02-09 16:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2012-02-09 16:42:24 [Message] input -> Chat: i think we are in wave 3 of 3 of 3.
2012-02-09 16:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with AAPL leading higher here
2012-02-09 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that goes without saying!
2012-02-09 16:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with AAPL leading here
2012-02-09 16:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most likely
2012-02-09 16:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will lose sponsorship first and top out before the rest of the market does
2012-02-09 16:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's many reasons for this
2012-02-09 16:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: primarily though
2012-02-09 16:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will act as a distraction to keep the majority out as we continue to climb
2012-02-09 16:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there will be other areas of undervaluation that will pop up as we go
2012-02-09 16:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but
2012-02-09 16:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you do have institutional support here
2012-02-09 16:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not knowing how many shares you have
2012-02-09 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a great tool that takes the guess work out of when to decide when a good time to sell when a pattern is going parabolic
2012-02-09 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is using the Parabolic SAR (stop and reverse) indicator with a 20 setting
2012-02-09 16:45:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2012-02-09 16:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern would hit the SAR sell at $443 which gives you a nice spread
2012-02-09 16:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the price pattern continues to advance to stabilize at these levels
2012-02-09 16:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SAR will follow
2012-02-09 16:46:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's a way to provide a sliding stop on the position without feeling that you might be cutting off yourself off from squeezing every last bit of price action
2012-02-09 16:47:03 [Message] input -> Chat: thank you for the strategy.
2012-02-09 16:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pleasure
2012-02-09 16:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you hit it
2012-02-09 16:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you rotate
2012-02-09 16:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a 359 point gain...you can afford to bank
2012-02-09 16:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-02-09 16:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another strategy
2012-02-09 16:47:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that Steve Jobs has passed
2012-02-09 16:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it would be beneficial for the company to have as many investors in the stock
2012-02-09 16:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Steve never liked splitting the stock
2012-02-09 16:48:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the new regime might
2012-02-09 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: splits are usually the kiss of death for an issue
2012-02-09 16:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's not before it rises higher on the good news
2012-02-09 16:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can see a 4:1 split
2012-02-09 16:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sell half
2012-02-09 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and keep the rest...you have a heck of cushion to do that
2012-02-09 16:49:35 [Message] input -> Chat: i will.
2012-02-09 16:49:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: think about the dollar value of a days trading there-mind boggling
2012-02-09 16:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's amazing
2012-02-09 16:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the longer term chart
2012-02-09 16:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how would you have liked to own AAPL at 6 in 2003?
2012-02-09 16:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could you imagine the profit sharing program if you worked there?
2012-02-09 16:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mind boggling
2012-02-09 16:52:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: accumulate stock each month
2012-02-09 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down at 6
2012-02-09 16:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or 10
2012-02-09 16:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even 100
2012-02-09 16:52:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just on shares alone and not even including options
2012-02-09 16:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I had a couple of people in about a year or so ago who worked at the APPL complex here in Sacramento
2012-02-09 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they were all excited at $200
2012-02-09 16:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: giggly
2012-02-09 16:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-02-09 16:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to work
2012-02-09 16:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm really happy for you Arthur!
2012-02-09 16:53:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Bidu not "too bad" either-has doubled since the 10 to1 split in 2010
2012-02-09 16:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...the longer term chart there looks scary
2012-02-09 16:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the monthly volume pattern
2012-02-09 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a triangle though
2012-02-09 16:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one to watch as well
2012-02-09 16:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but who knows what's going to happen in China
2012-02-09 16:55:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I rather try to keep my toe in the US
2012-02-09 16:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2012-02-09 16:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also declined today
2012-02-09 16:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a small point change
2012-02-09 16:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BUT
2012-02-09 16:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have yet to break below blip support
2012-02-09 16:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the price action now showing a direct challenge of the 2011 highs
2012-02-09 16:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SPX breadth MCSUM now challenging its 2011 highs
2012-02-09 16:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any "surprise" will likely to be a high volume breakout to the upside near term
2012-02-09 16:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which
2012-02-09 16:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about on Tuesday
2012-02-09 16:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a breakout here
2012-02-09 16:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would crush the shorts
2012-02-09 16:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both monetarily and emotionally
2012-02-09 16:57:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will have to make a big decision
2012-02-09 16:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially after the news on the Greece was made known today
2012-02-09 16:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and STILL there wasn't much on the "sell the news" concept
2012-02-09 16:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's markets like this
2012-02-09 16:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where people search out the real reasons why the market can continue to show strength or weakness predicated on the news of the day
2012-02-09 16:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once that news is known
2012-02-09 16:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can continue to show this same strength or weakness
2012-02-09 16:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the reason is:
2012-02-09 17:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money flow
2012-02-09 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth of market
2012-02-09 17:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is what pushes prices higher
2012-02-09 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a lack of it allows prices to continue to sag
2012-02-09 17:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is supply and demand that only matters
2012-02-09 17:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is a large supply of money looking for the best return it can get
2012-02-09 17:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will move into those areas in which it deems undervalued
2012-02-09 17:01:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and stocks are undervalued
2012-02-09 17:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2012-02-09 17:01:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2012-02-09 17:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know that every time I mentioned this in public I got challenged
2012-02-09 17:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you're NOW...
2012-02-09 17:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not last year
2012-02-09 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but NOW
2012-02-09 17:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seeing QE2 money coming into equities
2012-02-09 17:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes at least 12-18 months before any monetary policy shift is felt in equities
2012-02-09 17:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember how this same QE2 experiment pushed the price of gold?
2012-02-09 17:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the equity price patterns now
2012-02-09 17:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look familiar?
2012-02-09 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher and higher and higher
2012-02-09 17:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with little in the way of a pause
2012-02-09 17:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see now
2012-02-09 17:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: QE2 lasted 9 months?
2012-02-09 17:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have to check
2012-02-09 17:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not so good remembering things these days
2012-02-09 17:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-02-09 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NOW you're seeing QE2 hit the market
2012-02-09 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see.. it started in November 2010
2012-02-09 17:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ended in June of 2011
2012-02-09 17:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: about 8 or 9 months
2012-02-09 17:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking that projection out now
2012-02-09 17:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would put us towards the end of summer
2012-02-09 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...interestingly enough
2012-02-09 17:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be the time target for a price top if we can take out the 2011 and 2010 highs in the MCSUM's
2012-02-09 17:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always nice to have different angles complimenting each other
2012-02-09 17:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it makes our job that easier to work with
2012-02-09 17:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO also remains above its blip support area
2012-02-09 17:07:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we crossed the +1000 level today
2012-02-09 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we didn't do so with strength
2012-02-09 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we kind of did it with a whimper
2012-02-09 17:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will be important here to see if the bulls can show some strength here
2012-02-09 17:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2012-02-09 17:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've been discussing for 2 months now
2012-02-09 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to be very important that we take out the 2011 highs in the OEX breadth MCSUM for the price pattern to have any real chance of pushing even higher to test it's longer term highs
2012-02-09 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow continues to see new recovery highs
2012-02-09 17:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which the Dow breadth MCO remains with very little movement above its zero line
2012-02-09 17:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has caused the pattern on the Dow breadth MCSUM to trace out what looks like a ledge pattern
2012-02-09 17:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now snapped back to the +1000 level in doing so
2012-02-09 17:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about on Tuesday
2012-02-09 17:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls really need to step up here or we're going to get our first bearish divergent structure in place
2012-02-09 17:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that will lead us to seeing the Dow breadth MCSUM to move to at least the +750 level
2012-02-09 17:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would allow the Dow price pattern to snapback to its 2011 highs
2012-02-09 17:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another small point MCO change...this time with the MID
2012-02-09 17:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...how many small point changes have we had over the last week or so?
2012-02-09 17:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we see small point changes like this
2012-02-09 17:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we used to call this "tension on the tape"
2012-02-09 17:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where both sides are battling it out as to whose opinion on market direction is going to win out
2012-02-09 17:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2012-02-09 17:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've had all of the willing buyers move into the market
2012-02-09 17:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have both the unwilling AND speculative traders shorting the market at this, what looks to them to be, major resistance
2012-02-09 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem though
2012-02-09 17:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the internals have already told us that not only were we going to challenge these 2011 highs
2012-02-09 17:14:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we now have enough now to move above them and STAY THERE
2012-02-09 17:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we're waiting for then on some of these indices
2012-02-09 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is whether or not we'll enough energy now to skip any kind of prolonged snapback/consolidation in around the 2011 highs before building on this same uptrend
2012-02-09 17:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in some cases
2012-02-09 17:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking us all the up to the 2007/2008 price highs
2012-02-09 17:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have a full snapback on the SML breadth MCO
2012-02-09 17:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the question becomes...
2012-02-09 17:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should we worry about this zero line test?
2012-02-09 17:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone?
2012-02-09 17:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is a change in trend expected with this same zero line test?
2012-02-09 17:17:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not tomorrow
2012-02-09 17:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2012-02-09 17:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me rephrase the question
2012-02-09 17:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we move below the zero line here
2012-02-09 17:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is this a sell signal?
2012-02-09 17:17:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no, the 5 and 10's are way high
2012-02-09 17:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2012-02-09 17:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means?
2012-02-09 17:18:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: correction
2012-02-09 17:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2012-02-09 17:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you start to understand the mechanics that are necessary for trends to develop
2012-02-09 17:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you can be bit more confident in your trading
2012-02-09 17:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...in this case
2012-02-09 17:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we see the SML breadth MCO (or any other MCO) move below its zero line near term
2012-02-09 17:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the components remain above theirs
2012-02-09 17:19:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would only give us a "hold signal"
2012-02-09 17:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those issues where profits have been accumulated
2012-02-09 17:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you place a daily stop
2012-02-09 17:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you hit it...you're out
2012-02-09 17:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you bank
2012-02-09 17:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you look for the next trade
2012-02-09 17:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me
2012-02-09 17:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when I get a sell
2012-02-09 17:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or get stopped out
2012-02-09 17:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I take a break for at least a day
2012-02-09 17:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I rarely go back in immediately or even that same day
2012-02-09 17:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's always time
2012-02-09 17:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you rush
2012-02-09 17:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're likely to make a mistake
2012-02-09 17:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either on entry
2012-02-09 17:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: execution
2012-02-09 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or both
2012-02-09 17:21:08 [Message] input -> Chat: just like bernard baruch.
2012-02-09 17:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what happened to Bernard?
2012-02-09 17:21:51 [Message] input -> Chat: he was one of the richest men in the country.
2012-02-09 17:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2012-02-09 17:22:38 [Message] input -> Chat: he died 50 years ago.
2012-02-09 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: broke?
2012-02-09 17:23:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I take a day off as well-to get focus
2012-02-09 17:23:40 [Message] input -> Chat: no, almost a billionaire. 
2012-02-09 17:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he was better than that if I remember my history
2012-02-09 17:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he died, I think, in the mid 60's
2012-02-09 17:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and made his money in commodities
2012-02-09 17:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think..sugar?
2012-02-09 17:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my mind is not as sharp as it used to be
2012-02-09 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but yes
2012-02-09 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most of the better traders out there
2012-02-09 17:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't allow their emotion get the best of them
2012-02-09 17:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I take the time to regroup whether its a good or bad trade
2012-02-09 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because you are either coming off that winning high or frustrating low
2012-02-09 17:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the TM
2012-02-09 17:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now taken out the 2010 highs
2012-02-09 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and above the +1000 level
2012-02-09 17:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the price action is now directly challenging the 2011 highs
2012-02-09 17:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many in here really thought that would challenge the 2011 highs when the MCO gave that projection the second week of January?
2012-02-09 17:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the background noise...not many - so a good lesson in real time
2012-02-09 17:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and proves how valuable the McClellan tools are when you use them correctly
2012-02-09 17:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are, by far, the best out there in the technical world
2012-02-09 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they tell you so many things about the root of what moves the markets
2012-02-09 17:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money
2012-02-09 17:28:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm sold
2012-02-09 17:28:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's a ongoing exercise
2012-02-09 17:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best thing about the tools
2012-02-09 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that they do provide consistency
2012-02-09 17:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's gold in this business
2012-02-09 17:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking a quick look at the volume McClellan's
2012-02-09 17:30:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ton of nuances - takes time to get better
2012-02-09 17:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they all seem to be hanging in there quite nicely
2012-02-09 17:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, the Dow volume MCO moved higher today
2012-02-09 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the nuances is what gives both tools their value
2012-02-09 17:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be honest
2012-02-09 17:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you guys are learning here what many will never understand
2012-02-09 17:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best thing about it
2012-02-09 17:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we see these projections, objectives, amplitudes, happen in real time
2012-02-09 17:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no playing games
2012-02-09 17:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a slow and sure process
2012-02-09 17:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has substance
2012-02-09 17:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it makes sense
2012-02-09 17:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's what 99% of the technicians out there are striving to get from the markets
2012-02-09 17:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but many believe it can't be that simple
2012-02-09 17:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be honest
2012-02-09 17:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it isn't simple at all
2012-02-09 17:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes practice
2012-02-09 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: day in and day out
2012-02-09 17:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you NEVER stop learning in this business
2012-02-09 17:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and above all else
2012-02-09 17:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you must learn that every market segment is as different as a snowflake
2012-02-09 17:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no two price pattern structures are ever the same
2012-02-09 17:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2012-02-09 17:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must always continue to adjust and fine tune our analysis
2012-02-09 17:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to fit the market's rhythm and not what we think this rhythm should be
2012-02-09 17:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we have a classic bull flag on the SML close up chart
2012-02-09 17:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most flag formations only last, maybe, 5 trading days
2012-02-09 17:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could see another flag pole higher as soon as tomorrow
2012-02-09 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the pole and the flag here..textbook stuff
2012-02-09 17:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCSUM has now cleared its double top highs seen on the 3 year chart
2012-02-09 17:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is an amazing amount of strength we're seeing here
2012-02-09 17:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it doesn't look like its finished yet though a pause would be nice to see
2012-02-09 17:37:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this really has all the indications of a massive 3rd wave advance of higher trend degree
2012-02-09 17:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you have both the psychological and monetary support to drive this same pattern
2012-02-09 17:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch what happens now
2012-02-09 17:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with Greece out of the way
2012-02-09 17:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (well, let's hope that they pass the resolution this weekend)
2012-02-09 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once that's out of the way
2012-02-09 17:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to keep the wall of worry intact
2012-02-09 17:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch...
2012-02-09 17:38:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next talk will be Portugal
2012-02-09 17:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bears will then jump on that
2012-02-09 17:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from one lily pad to the next
2012-02-09 17:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to support this kind of anticipated 3rd wave action
2012-02-09 17:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must have a constant supply of worry
2012-02-09 17:39:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we take care of Portugal
2012-02-09 17:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe Spain is next?
2012-02-09 17:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or Italy
2012-02-09 17:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or Ireland
2012-02-09 17:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pick it
2012-02-09 17:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as you see the proof of the pudding here
2012-02-09 17:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will help wean you off on the importance of news stories
2012-02-09 17:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure, we should listen and be informed
2012-02-09 17:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unless money starts to move out of the market
2012-02-09 17:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this same information has very little importance as it directly pertains to the action of prices
2012-02-09 17:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's look pretty much neutral given the current backdrop
2012-02-09 17:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are again "overbought" which could allow a quick and shallow pullback to shake the tree of the weak hands
2012-02-09 17:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2012-02-09 17:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISEE was at 83 yesterday
2012-02-09 17:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on just an intraday pullback
2012-02-09 17:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in an "oversold" market
2012-02-09 17:43:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very hard to show any kind of change in trend, no less a correction, when every single sell off is meet with bearish traders piling it on
2012-02-09 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's continue to suggest a strong uptrend in force
2012-02-09 17:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finally!
2012-02-09 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got net buying today!
2012-02-09 17:44:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .87
2012-02-09 17:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at 1.03
2012-02-09 17:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still "oversold" but not as deep as before
2012-02-09 17:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN At .73
2012-02-09 17:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .77
2012-02-09 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "overbought"
2012-02-09 17:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like saw in 2010
2012-02-09 17:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should only be looking for a consolidation here...and then a resumption given the high MCSUM numbers
2012-02-09 17:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .82
2012-02-09 17:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2012-02-09 17:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bearish side of neutral
2012-02-09 17:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-02-09 17:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain in control
2012-02-09 17:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we do need to see some fresh faces come to the table here
2012-02-09 17:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we continue to see more and more signs of exhaustion on a short term basis
2012-02-09 17:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intermediate term, however, it's going to take a least a month now before we'll see a tradable price top
2012-02-09 17:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's only if we show a great deal of selling after mid month
2012-02-09 17:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which
2012-02-09 17:48:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2012-02-09 17:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would only give it a 30% chance of happening
2012-02-09 17:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can push it forward again tomorrow
2012-02-09 17:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would extend out the timing in this area
2012-02-09 17:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2012-02-09 17:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't lose your discipline here
2012-02-09 17:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit for average
2012-02-09 17:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the doubles and triples will come
2012-02-09 17:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but only if you make contact
2012-02-09 17:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sometimes
2012-02-09 17:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're lucky enough to hit a home run IF you do your homework
2012-02-09 17:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-02-09 17:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...we got our first "technical analysis doesn't work anymore" post this past weekend
2012-02-09 17:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was anticipated to happen when we neared the 2011 top
2012-02-09 17:51:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, theirs doesn't, LOL
2012-02-09 17:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so sentiment wise, things continue to compliment the price pattern structure
2012-02-09 17:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well
2012-02-09 17:52:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things always work
2012-02-09 17:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's those adjustments that are needed that people usually have problems with
2012-02-09 17:52:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but, in different segments-different things work, eh?
2012-02-09 17:52:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using the same settings during a consolidation, and then during a trending periods, rarely works
2012-02-09 17:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: exactly
2012-02-09 17:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why our work is never done!
2012-02-09 17:53:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: so as you say, adjustments needed
2012-02-09 17:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup
2012-02-09 17:53:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: SO TRUE
2012-02-09 17:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: never get married to one set of rules
2012-02-09 17:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if you do
2012-02-09 17:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will force a divorce...and it usually isn't pretty when it happens
2012-02-09 17:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2012-02-09 17:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-02-09 17:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2012-02-09 17:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Tuesday
2012-02-09 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2012-02-09 17:54:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great chat tonite-much appreciated!

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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