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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-02-03 16:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-02-03 16:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-02-03 16:01:04 [Message] lard -> Chat: very good,thanks
2011-02-03 16:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: excellent
2011-02-03 16:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-02-03 16:01:58 [Message] tracca -> Chat: none
2011-02-03 16:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you cover?
2011-02-03 16:02:07 [Message] tracca -> Chat: yes
2011-02-03 16:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2011-02-03 16:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think we have a bottom
2011-02-03 16:02:32 [Message] tracca -> Chat: mvg was the weakest in silver stocks
2011-02-03 16:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a 13 1/2 month cycle in Gold that was due to bottom, ideally, this week
2011-02-03 16:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case
2011-02-03 16:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see the PM stocks stabilize right around now and set things up for next week
2011-02-03 16:03:32 [Message] tracca -> Chat: we learn, and go on
2011-02-03 16:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2011-02-03 16:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great attitude
2011-02-03 16:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll see how things look today
2011-02-03 16:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after giving us our anticipated snapback to or towards the zero line on Wednesday
2011-02-03 16:05:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO bounced slightly higher today and gave us a small point change to boot
2011-02-03 16:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at today's price bar on the NYA
2011-02-03 16:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see how the action snapped back to its breakout point intraday and closed near the highs of the day
2011-02-03 16:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be interpreted as bullish action in anticipation of getting clarity fairly soon
2011-02-03 16:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be with the jobs numbers tomorrow
2011-02-03 16:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be what's going on in the middle east
2011-02-03 16:07:08 [Message] tracca -> Chat: MCO in Volume NDX has a strange pattern, if you may look at it today
2011-02-03 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Productivity was announced today...showing we have inflation in check
2011-02-03 16:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I will
2011-02-03 16:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO MCO components remain on a buy
2011-02-03 16:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls continue to have control here
2011-02-03 16:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO was only able to snapback to its last reactive high yesterday
2011-02-03 16:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it too gave us a small point change
2011-02-03 16:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-02-03 16:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2011-02-03 16:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last small point change gave us Tuesday's breakout
2011-02-03 16:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a small point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2011-02-03 16:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM trying its best to hold the important +250 level
2011-02-03 16:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can also see how the NASDAQ price pattern has only been able to maintain a trading range with the MCO components and the MCO itself not agreeing with each other
2011-02-03 16:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which goes to reinforce the idea that it's important to have both of these units of measure complimenting each other for a trend to develop
2011-02-03 16:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...small point change on the NDX breadth MCO
2011-02-03 16:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is coiling up tightly here
2011-02-03 16:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX data continues to suggest that an upside breakout is imminent
2011-02-03 16:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it would be better to say that
2011-02-03 16:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it continues to maintain an air of confidence right now
2011-02-03 16:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what is highly unusual is that the SPX breadth MCSUM has now moved sideways now for over a month
2011-02-03 16:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't think I have EVER seen that before
2011-02-03 16:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it does give a good representation of how the markets are literally floating on top of a large amount of liquidity right now
2011-02-03 16:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can't move lower
2011-02-03 16:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we just continue to rise higher in prices
2011-02-03 16:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice zero line bounce on the OEX breadth MCO
2011-02-03 16:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX breadth MCSUM echoing what the SPX MCSUM is doing
2011-02-03 16:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher highs on the Dow data all around
2011-02-03 16:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher price
2011-02-03 16:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher MCO
2011-02-03 16:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher MCSUM
2011-02-03 16:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no indication as yet of a price top here with both trends of money flow confirming the move
2011-02-03 16:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...DP is really slow tonight
2011-02-03 16:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the MID breadth MCO
2011-02-03 16:20:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the way the MID breadth MCSUM rides the +750 level
2011-02-03 16:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is really "different"
2011-02-03 16:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on SML breath MCO
2011-02-03 16:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and based on the pattern
2011-02-03 16:21:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're going to see an upside breakout, now would be the best time for it to do so
2011-02-03 16:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing we have to constantly keep remembering here is that the various MCSUM's have promised us a early March high
2011-02-03 16:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we need to know now is whether those highs will have any kind of finality to them - OR - if we are about to expand this same time objective
2011-02-03 16:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this regard, any further strength would probably come in right about now
2011-02-03 16:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we fail to do this
2011-02-03 16:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll probably have a solid blueprint surrounding this early March objective in place
2011-02-03 16:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lot going on "behind the scenes"
2011-02-03 16:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where most don't or can't appreciate how important this current juncture is to the intermediate term of trend
2011-02-03 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would be just like the market to start to coil just right before clarity is given
2011-02-03 16:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2011-02-03 16:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on to the sectors
2011-02-03 16:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO is showing a shallow breadth thrust now to the upside
2011-02-03 16:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it can move above the December highs, this would a solid buy
2011-02-03 16:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice the XLY breadth MCSUM
2011-02-03 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how it's now declined enough where a resumption of a rally can begin - OR - an equal and opposite down trend can now develop
2011-02-03 16:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a move above 38.40, with volume, would be a buy
2011-02-03 16:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP remains neutral at this time
2011-02-03 16:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's important to note that the XLP breadth MCSUM is just now approaching equality between buyers and sellers
2011-02-03 16:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: giving us the same potential outcomes as it is with the XLY
2011-02-03 16:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE remains incredibly strong
2011-02-03 16:29:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the XLE breadth MCSUM can remain above the +1250 level, it's going to stay this strong for a while longer
2011-02-03 16:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...now up 33% since the August lows
2011-02-03 16:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here's the exciting sector
2011-02-03 16:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLF breadth MCSUM continuing to make new highs
2011-02-03 16:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only a matter of time before the XLF price pattern breaks above its April highs
2011-02-03 16:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a strong open here is a good buy point
2011-02-03 16:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV price pattern continues to play with its April highs
2011-02-03 16:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLV breadth MCSUM, though above its zero line, still remains below the +250 level
2011-02-03 16:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better fish to fry here
2011-02-03 16:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these MCSUM numbers are just phenomenal
2011-02-03 16:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know if you folks can really appreciate them or not
2011-02-03 16:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is really a lot of history being made right now
2011-02-03 16:34:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's unlikely we'll EVER see a time like this again in the future
2011-02-03 16:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLI is still a buy here
2011-02-03 16:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the XLB price pattern!
2011-02-03 16:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a lot of money out there betting on a recovery now
2011-02-03 16:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only did we get a small point change on the XLK breadth MCO today
2011-02-03 16:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not only did we not even have enough sellers to give us a snapback to the zero line
2011-02-03 16:37:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now we've broken above the declining tops line on the XLK breadth MCSUM going back to the December period
2011-02-03 16:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU is now "overbought" enough where money might just leave this sector and take on more risk with something like the XLK
2011-02-03 16:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-02-03 16:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth remains buoyant
2011-02-03 16:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both on a short term and intermediate term basis
2011-02-03 16:39:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a look at the volume McClellan's
2011-02-03 16:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO remains below its zero line
2011-02-03 16:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components remain positive
2011-02-03 16:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're still undecided
2011-02-03 16:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing here for the bulls remains in trying to take out the declining line of tops we see on the CO and composite volume MCO's from the December highs
2011-02-03 16:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until this threshold is violated...there's always that "chance" of continued sideways action with a bullish bias
2011-02-03 16:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO looks much better than the NYSE group
2011-02-03 16:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what was your concern on the NDX volume MCO Tracca?
2011-02-03 16:45:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he's probably away - but no worries here
2011-02-03 16:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we have to do is look at what the NDX volume MCSUM is doing
2011-02-03 16:45:35 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I am here copying pasting
2011-02-03 16:45:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..
2011-02-03 16:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a small point change to boot
2011-02-03 16:46:09 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I think you call that pattern small point change
2011-02-03 16:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's break to the upside in the MCSUM is a whisper of what we should expect tomorrow
2011-02-03 16:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes - small point change
2011-02-03 16:46:36 [Message] tracca -> Chat: the flatness was bothering me
2011-02-03 16:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that there indecisiveness between buyers and sellers
2011-02-03 16:46:45 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I see
2011-02-03 16:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that it's not the MCO that is your main focus
2011-02-03 16:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's how it's readings move the McSUM
2011-02-03 16:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today it broke to the upside
2011-02-03 16:47:09 [Message] tracca -> Chat: master, talk more
2011-02-03 16:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol - now cut that out
2011-02-03 16:47:26 [Message] tracca -> Chat: well, truth is truth
2011-02-03 16:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: young Jedi
2011-02-03 16:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing to take away with these chats is knowing what to make important
2011-02-03 16:47:58 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I learn
2011-02-03 16:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all do
2011-02-03 16:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyday I still do
2011-02-03 16:48:20 [Message] tracca -> Chat: what did small point change do to MCSUM?
2011-02-03 16:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you stop learning...then you're likely to lose
2011-02-03 16:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no such thing with the MCSUM
2011-02-03 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a short term oscillator guideline
2011-02-03 16:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you look at the close up of the NDX volume MCSUM
2011-02-03 16:49:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do you see?
2011-02-03 16:49:32 [Message] tracca -> Chat: climbing
2011-02-03 16:49:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see how we took out the recent highs with a large gap?
2011-02-03 16:49:37 [Message] tracca -> Chat: yes
2011-02-03 16:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is money moving into the market
2011-02-03 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at a brisk pace
2011-02-03 16:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money moves in ADVANCE of news
2011-02-03 16:50:06 [Message] tracca -> Chat: while MCO makes a table top flat small point change
2011-02-03 16:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the wider the separation of the MCSUM postings, the more the conviction of money flow
2011-02-03 16:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is a good thing
2011-02-03 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it shows that, in this case, there are no sellers to be found
2011-02-03 16:50:44 [Message] tracca -> Chat: you expect strong moves after small point change
2011-02-03 16:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds favor them on the breadth side, yes
2011-02-03 16:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually 1% or better
2011-02-03 16:51:11 [Message] tracca -> Chat: come on...
2011-02-03 16:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the same thing as "tension on the tape"
2011-02-03 16:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's when traders are nervous
2011-02-03 16:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't have clarity
2011-02-03 16:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they know it's coming very soon
2011-02-03 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be the jobs numbers tomorrow
2011-02-03 16:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know
2011-02-03 16:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really
2011-02-03 16:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a technician...you don't care
2011-02-03 16:52:04 [Message] tracca -> Chat: right
2011-02-03 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the indicator is what it is
2011-02-03 16:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's showing more buyers than sellers during of time of choppy price behavior
2011-02-03 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which then lends itself to an eventual move with this same direction of money flow
2011-02-03 16:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth leads price
2011-02-03 16:53:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the magic here
2011-02-03 16:53:25 [Message] tracca -> Chat: the direction of MCSUM is the suggested direction of the action?
2011-02-03 16:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note that this table top formation (as you call it) is just below the breakout point for the pattern
2011-02-03 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-02-03 16:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's review this again
2011-02-03 16:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO is your short term trend indicator of the A/D line
2011-02-03 16:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it measures the speed in which money is either moving in or out of the market
2011-02-03 16:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM is your intermediate term trend indicator of the A/D line
2011-02-03 16:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it measures the amount of energy that was created by the speed in which money either moves in or out of the market
2011-02-03 16:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO is your rocket engines
2011-02-03 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM shows you how far you can travel once those engines are finally extinguished
2011-02-03 16:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both are oscillators
2011-02-03 16:56:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO is the difference in which the 19 day EMA is moving away from or moving towards the 39 day EMA
2011-02-03 16:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM is the visual distance between these two EMA"s
2011-02-03 16:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all these indicators are doing is giving speed and distance of how money will eventually effect the direction of stock prices themselves
2011-02-03 16:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing that the McClellan's don't tell you is the position of the A/D line itself in relation to itself
2011-02-03 16:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get the combo chart and see what it looks like
2011-02-03 16:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: holy moly...look at the huge breakout in the AMEX today!
2011-02-03 16:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/nyad020311.png
2011-02-03 16:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the A/D line made another all time high today
2011-02-03 17:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since 1926 there has NEVER been an important market top without the NYAD line diverging
2011-02-03 17:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NEVER
2011-02-03 17:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the combo chart
2011-02-03 17:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the way the MCSUM is hugging its rising bottoms line here
2011-02-03 17:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at how close we are from the overhead resistance on the MCO
2011-02-03 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...look at the way the MCSUM is riding above its rising bottoms line
2011-02-03 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is strength for now
2011-02-03 17:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I must stress again
2011-02-03 17:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of the math involved, it is soooooo difficult to add to the current "overbought" condition like we're doing
2011-02-03 17:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this MUST be respected for what it may imply
2011-02-03 17:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of the volume MCO's remain in and around their zero lines
2011-02-03 17:04:56 [Message] tracca -> Chat: that's why bears are puzzled I guess
2011-02-03 17:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so hopefully we'll have some clarity very soon
2011-02-03 17:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most bears don't have a clue about the technical condition of the market
2011-02-03 17:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they play the markets both emotionally and fundamentally
2011-02-03 17:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're a technician
2011-02-03 17:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is absolutely no way you would be bearish here
2011-02-03 17:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's just so much evidence to the contrary
2011-02-03 17:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this lack of knowledge, and the emotionalism that goes with it, is what feeds the bull monster
2011-02-03 17:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like a Sci Fi movie I saw as a kid
2011-02-03 17:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it was the Outer Limits
2011-02-03 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where this man could only gain strength with the worry of others
2011-02-03 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then there's the one in which this man's brain grew in size the more electricity he absorbed
2011-02-03 17:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's this kind of thing
2011-02-03 17:08:28 [Message] tracca -> Chat: almost identical
2011-02-03 17:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more people who don't embrace the direction of the trend
2011-02-03 17:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer and extended the trend will get
2011-02-03 17:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side
2011-02-03 17:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both sci fi stories had bad endings for the characters
2011-02-03 17:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is something to worry about only when the conditions are ripe for this to happen
2011-02-03 17:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the very worse that could happen here
2011-02-03 17:10:07 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I hope we will see the clues of that
2011-02-03 17:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is another retest of last Friday's lows
2011-02-03 17:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will
2011-02-03 17:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the thing about breadth analysis
2011-02-03 17:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's slow and sure
2011-02-03 17:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a situation where there is a sense of urgency to it
2011-02-03 17:11:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and NOTHING technical means much until the direction of money itself agrees with the analysis
2011-02-03 17:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as everything technical has its basis on the direction of the A/D line itself
2011-02-03 17:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: knowing its direction then will usually keep you from making a big mistake
2011-02-03 17:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully by now you've begun to appreciate the fact that markets can not just turn on a dime and go the other way without money flow leading the way first
2011-02-03 17:13:03 [Message] tracca -> Chat: yes
2011-02-03 17:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of the market as a large cruise ship
2011-02-03 17:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to go in the opposite way it must first turn around
2011-02-03 17:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how does it do this?
2011-02-03 17:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does it by some magical feat rise up (like in a cartoon) and then point itself the other way?
2011-02-03 17:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or does it make a large arc to change direction?
2011-02-03 17:14:16 [Message] tracca -> Chat: rounding top
2011-02-03 17:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that will give you the time to prepare
2011-02-03 17:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the evidence will come in bits and pieces
2011-02-03 17:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at what we do here
2011-02-03 17:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a plan
2011-02-03 17:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we follow that blueprint until it's "proven otherwise"
2011-02-03 17:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like a cruise ship
2011-02-03 17:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are always going to be choppy waters from time to time
2011-02-03 17:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the key here is the direction it maintains
2011-02-03 17:15:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes we get a rouge wave that will hit us
2011-02-03 17:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's not at all unusual
2011-02-03 17:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at last Friday, for example
2011-02-03 17:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on Thursday we talked about this as a possibility given the indecisive behavior
2011-02-03 17:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BUT
2011-02-03 17:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also knew that if we did see a sell off, it would be short and decisive
2011-02-03 17:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that a trend to the downside was not probable
2011-02-03 17:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we go from possible to probable to actual
2011-02-03 17:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's always a possibility of something happening
2011-02-03 17:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can't get it right all the time
2011-02-03 17:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when it gets to the probable stage
2011-02-03 17:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we know that it can actually happen
2011-02-03 17:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and knowing this can help in our allocation
2011-02-03 17:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only by percentage, but also by reasonable timing of such events
2011-02-03 17:19:39 [Message] tracca -> Chat: XLK Volume MCSUM has a huge jump
2011-02-03 17:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup
2011-02-03 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the MCSUM remains below its previous highs
2011-02-03 17:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-02-03 17:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things continue to look more positive than negative...at least on a trending basis
2011-02-03 17:20:41 [Message] tracca -> Chat: is that MCO still a small point change on XLK?
2011-02-03 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are trying to determine trend
2011-02-03 17:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...but small point changes work their best magic with the breadth side of the equation
2011-02-03 17:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the case of volume, it just reinforces the tension on the tape
2011-02-03 17:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2011-02-03 17:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we haven't as yet see a string of days that would reflect a strong trend
2011-02-03 17:22:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're getting closer to that kind of resolution
2011-02-03 17:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is waiting for something
2011-02-03 17:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the meantime, it's moving higher under it's own momentum
2011-02-03 17:23:00 [Message] tracca -> Chat: unless the breadth MCO also is a small point change, ignore the ones in Volume MCOs?
2011-02-03 17:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no
2011-02-03 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it all works together
2011-02-03 17:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point changes tell us that there is indecision
2011-02-03 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and indecision gets worked out
2011-02-03 17:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a pause
2011-02-03 17:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a churn
2011-02-03 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a battle between opinions
2011-02-03 17:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like an oscillator being at its zero line or mid point
2011-02-03 17:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it tells you that there is indecision now, but from this coiling effect, there's likely to be big move
2011-02-03 17:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: respect your indicators in what they may imply
2011-02-03 17:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like taking a position
2011-02-03 17:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a long position
2011-02-03 17:25:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a short position
2011-02-03 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then there's NO position
2011-02-03 17:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cash is a position
2011-02-03 17:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and right now, the participants are waiting for something to give them clarity
2011-02-03 17:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since December
2011-02-03 17:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this waiting period is giving any benefit of any doubt to the longs
2011-02-03 17:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: partially because money has to be parked somewhere
2011-02-03 17:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and T-Bills are giving you nothing
2011-02-03 17:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money markets are giving just as much
2011-02-03 17:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bonds are weak due to POMO
2011-02-03 17:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but are also rising because of POMO
2011-02-03 17:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: commodities are working off the money coming from gold
2011-02-03 17:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should start to hit bonds in the next week or so
2011-02-03 17:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had POMO today, right?
2011-02-03 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone?
2011-02-03 17:28:27 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I don't know
2011-02-03 17:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe we did
2011-02-03 17:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see if I can check real quick - one moment
2011-02-03 17:29:13 [Message] tracca -> Chat: usually POMO days market finishing up even if it was down during the day
2011-02-03 17:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can't find the data right now
2011-02-03 17:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not true
2011-02-03 17:29:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're confusing the stimulus
2011-02-03 17:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...we had Open market op today
2011-02-03 17:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-02-03 17:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want you to look at the 4 major asset classes
2011-02-03 17:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: equities closed slightly higher
2011-02-03 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bonds were down
2011-02-03 17:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: commodities were down
2011-02-03 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but gold was up $20.00
2011-02-03 17:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: excess liquidity will always move into gold first
2011-02-03 17:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the bypass - the savings account
2011-02-03 17:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2011-02-03 17:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last couple of weeks there was very little open market trading
2011-02-03 17:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't have proof of this...
2011-02-03 17:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is the implication based on the chart pattern and its stimulus to move in one direction or the other
2011-02-03 17:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what stocks are working with here
2011-02-03 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is what was FED policy a year or more ago
2011-02-03 17:33:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes time for monetary policy to flow through the system
2011-02-03 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like seismic waves
2011-02-03 17:33:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or like watching waves coming in from the ocean from a pier
2011-02-03 17:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these waves must go through the system in an appropriate manner
2011-02-03 17:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions or comments??
2011-02-03 17:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to gold for a moment
2011-02-03 17:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about the break below the price consolidation last week
2011-02-03 17:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how important it was
2011-02-03 17:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since that time
2011-02-03 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have held those lows
2011-02-03 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have now generated a SAR buy signal today
2011-02-03 17:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...this SAR only says "Stop and Reverse"
2011-02-03 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what it really says is that any previous trend has now been canceled
2011-02-03 17:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, at the very least, we're in a trading range here
2011-02-03 17:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it was this technical breakdown of last week giving us our nesting of a cycle (which happens alot in the precious metals)
2011-02-03 17:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going quickly to the XLE volume MCSUM
2011-02-03 17:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll see the power of money still coming into this sector
2011-02-03 17:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you wish...this is a add to time for this sector
2011-02-03 17:38:10 [Message] tracca -> Chat: does XLE include oil service stocks?
2011-02-03 17:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have nothing here to work with
2011-02-03 17:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummmm...let me check
2011-02-03 17:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can use this as a guideline - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/webcgi/wb.exe?chartbook.web+IXE_PMO
2011-02-03 17:39:43 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you
2011-02-03 17:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might...oh...I know where to check...one sec
2011-02-03 17:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like oil companies in the top 9...
2011-02-03 17:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Exxon Mobil Corporation Common XOM 18.37 Chevron Corporation Common Stoc CVX 12.78 Schlumberger N.V. Common Stock SLB 8.48 ConocoPhillips Common Stock COP 5.07 Occidental Petroleum Corporatio OXY 4.81 Apache Corporation Common Stock APA 3.64 Halliburton Company Common Stoc HAL 3.17 Anadarko Petroleum Corporation APC 2.84 Devon Energy Corporation Common DVN 2.72
2011-02-03 17:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Hal is in there
2011-02-03 17:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are still on the bullish side of neutral
2011-02-03 17:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are still neutral
2011-02-03 17:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are indicating a strong uptrend
2011-02-03 17:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .76
2011-02-03 17:43:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-02-03 17:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 STILL at 1.13
2011-02-03 17:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2011-02-03 17:43:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .65
2011-02-03 17:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .85
2011-02-03 17:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .70
2011-02-03 17:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .97
2011-02-03 17:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...the ball remains with the bulls
2011-02-03 17:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus we're now getting whispers that we are finally going to make a big move here
2011-02-03 17:45:31 [Message] tracca -> Chat: nice set up
2011-02-03 17:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully by next Tuesday we'll be able to really rock n' roll
2011-02-03 17:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the market does have this uncanny ability to "set up" right when it needs to
2011-02-03 17:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at last month
2011-02-03 17:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were small point changing going into the jobs number then too if I remember correctly
2011-02-03 17:46:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my concentration
2011-02-03 17:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for what it's worth
2011-02-03 17:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is with the financials
2011-02-03 17:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see the biggest potential there
2011-02-03 17:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and based on the breadth data of real estate...I would be watching there too
2011-02-03 17:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will the bulls fumble the ball again like last week?
2011-02-03 17:47:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see in about 12 hours
2011-02-03 17:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-02-03 17:48:15 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you for great lesson
2011-02-03 17:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I hope you're getting your monies worth
2011-02-03 17:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trick here is knowing that things just don't change with a snap of your fingers
2011-02-03 17:49:11 [Message] tracca -> Chat:
2011-02-03 17:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes time for things to "change"
2011-02-03 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and most of all
2011-02-03 17:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: working with tools, such as the McClellan's, give you that added edge in making the right trade on a consistent basis
2011-02-03 17:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all we really want
2011-02-03 17:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no bells or whistles
2011-02-03 17:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just consistency
2011-02-03 17:51:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-02-03 17:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-02-03 17:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a "super" weekend
2011-02-03 17:51:31 [Message] tracca -> Chat: you too
2011-02-03 17:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Tuesday
2011-02-03 17:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night


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