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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2016-02-24 16:00:13 fib1618: good day
2016-02-24 16:00:17 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-02-24 16:01:33 tuna: great thanks how bout you?
2016-02-24 16:04:43 fib1618: doing fine...just rushing around doing stuff that comes before a trip
2016-02-24 16:06:06 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-02-24 16:06:57 fib1618: well...look at that...we closed up today!
2016-02-24 16:07:16 fib1618: so we got what was expected
2016-02-24 16:07:26 fib1618: a down open and strength later in the day
2016-02-24 16:07:39 fib1618: that's good news
2016-02-24 16:07:52 fib1618: because we're reading the tea leaves right
2016-02-24 16:09:47 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and see what we have to work with
2016-02-24 16:10:29 fib1618: after finding near term support at the +50 level
2016-02-24 16:10:39 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO closed higher today
2016-02-24 16:11:05 fib1618: in what would seem to be an obligatory technical bounce
2016-02-24 16:11:37 fib1618: looking at the components
2016-02-24 16:11:49 fib1618: and we see that the 5% Trend is back above its zero line
2016-02-24 16:11:59 fib1618: but not with a lot of vigor as yet
2016-02-24 16:12:27 fib1618: price bar wise
2016-02-24 16:12:47 fib1618: we not only closed the pattern gap from last week
2016-02-24 16:13:01 fib1618: but also closed above the last week or so days of previous closes
2016-02-24 16:13:17 fib1618: this would then indicate that we should start off positive in the morning
2016-02-24 16:14:00 fib1618: and we'll have to see if those hiding come out from behind the bearish bushes and join on the buy side
2016-02-24 16:14:23 fib1618: meaning that the 1st hour of trading will likely be our proxy for the rest of the day and week
2016-02-24 16:14:57 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-02-24 16:15:08 fib1618: and we have pretty much the same situation going on here
2016-02-24 16:15:33 fib1618: though the 5% Trend of the MCO composite is showing better strength of pattern at this time with a successful bounce near its zero line
2016-02-24 16:16:25 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM is now a day away from reaching the -250 level
2016-02-24 16:16:44 fib1618: so we'll see if this provides some near term natural resistance in the pattern or not
2016-02-24 16:17:13 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-02-24 16:17:20 fib1618: and here we also bounced higher today
2016-02-24 16:17:36 fib1618: but settled at just above the important +50 level
2016-02-24 16:17:52 fib1618: where we might find some near term resistance
2016-02-24 16:18:18 fib1618: this bounce in the MCO today was part of the 10% Trend bouncing off its zero line
2016-02-24 16:18:52 fib1618: making Thursday another one of those important character days for the bulls
2016-02-24 16:19:11 fib1618: the NASDAQ price action did as we expected today
2016-02-24 16:19:21 fib1618: by moving lower to close last week's pattern gap
2016-02-24 16:19:48 fib1618: before recovering in the afternoon session to close sharply higher
2016-02-24 16:20:01 fib1618: and at the second highest level since the 2/11 lows
2016-02-24 16:20:16 fib1618: and with it
2016-02-24 16:20:53 fib1618: the probabilities are more than 50% that we're now likely to challenge the late January highs at 4600
2016-02-24 16:21:44 fib1618: the NDX price action is in a better position to reach this same high point in its pattern
2016-02-24 16:22:11 fib1618: since both of the NDX MCO components are above their zero line
2016-02-24 16:22:19 fib1618: and we saw bounce support in the 5%
2016-02-24 16:22:48 fib1618: so let's look for the top 100 to do the majority of the work near term to reach these same highs of earlier this month
2016-02-24 16:23:34 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO continues to show a lot of strength currently
2016-02-24 16:24:19 fib1618: and we can see how fast money has been flowing into this index by the distance of the individual gaps that we see in the SPX breadth MCSUM
2016-02-24 16:24:32 fib1618: looks like a zero line challenge is very likely now
2016-02-24 16:24:47 fib1618: and if the buying holds up
2016-02-24 16:24:54 fib1618: we can be there by early next week
2016-02-24 16:25:51 fib1618: we were also able to get our technical bounce in the OEX breadth MCO at the +50 level
2016-02-24 16:26:24 fib1618: but not nearly enough to suggest that we may see a continuation of this on Thursday
2016-02-24 16:27:32 fib1618: so, at this point, it doesn't look likely that the OEX breadth MCSUM is going to be able to move back above the -250 level
2016-02-24 16:28:03 fib1618: at least without some sort of a pullback that would last a week or two beforehand
2016-02-24 16:28:12 fib1618: of course
2016-02-24 16:28:44 fib1618: that could change tomorrow IF we see exceptional follow through to today's intraday reversal
2016-02-24 16:29:18 fib1618: it's just that we don't have the energy to do so right now...today
2016-02-24 16:30:19 fib1618: seems like the Dow breadth MCO and MCSUM have a similar vibe to their structures
2016-02-24 16:30:47 fib1618: which is unusual because the large component difference between the two indices
2016-02-24 16:31:43 fib1618: which also includes the likelihood of a zero line challenge of the Dow MCSUM zero line sometime the early part of next week
2016-02-24 16:32:23 fib1618: nice strong reversal bar on the MID price chart today
2016-02-24 16:32:54 fib1618: but like of the charts we've seen so far
2016-02-24 16:33:04 fib1618: today's MCO seems to be lagging a bit
2016-02-24 16:33:28 fib1618: this could be corrected by another day of back and fill on Thursday going into Friday
2016-02-24 16:33:30 fib1618: but overall
2016-02-24 16:33:46 fib1618: looks positive enough to move to a higher price high
2016-02-24 16:33:57 fib1618: especially if we're seeing the same thing in the SML
2016-02-24 16:34:10 fib1618: and we are!
2016-02-24 16:34:25 fib1618: as we closed at the highest level since the lows of earlier this month
2016-02-24 16:34:52 fib1618: too bad that the SML breadth MCO didn't fully confirm the move though
2016-02-24 16:35:14 fib1618: but the 10% Trend did show a bit better strength
2016-02-24 16:36:07 fib1618: so with a break above 630
2016-02-24 16:36:12 fib1618: and a higher high in the MCO
2016-02-24 16:36:27 fib1618: this would be a strong technical breakout overall
2016-02-24 16:36:52 fib1618: and a full snapback to the 640 level would be indicated there short term
2016-02-24 16:37:04 fib1618: and probably by the middle part of next week
2016-02-24 16:37:27 fib1618: still...we have to see the break happen before we can be sure
2016-02-24 16:38:27 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCSUM moved up and through the -500 level today
2016-02-24 16:39:27 fib1618: and that's a longer term good sign that the bottom we had earlier this month was an important one
2016-02-24 16:39:36 fib1618: so...
2016-02-24 16:39:50 fib1618: we had the best of both worlds today
2016-02-24 16:40:02 fib1618: where a sell off was likely from some barometers
2016-02-24 16:40:09 fib1618: while others indicated a firm close
2016-02-24 16:40:24 fib1618: with the strong reversal bars on the price charts as a result
2016-02-24 16:40:44 fib1618: this indicates that the buyers are now beginning to show their muscle
2016-02-24 16:40:47 fib1618: or better said
2016-02-24 16:41:01 fib1618: their ability to take control of the price action is getting stronger on a daily basis
2016-02-24 16:43:20 fib1618: if this is the actual case
2016-02-24 16:43:28 fib1618: we should see this in the sectors
2016-02-24 16:43:33 fib1618: so let's move to there
2016-02-24 16:44:03 fib1618: we see that strong strength continues with the XLY breadth MCO
2016-02-24 16:44:25 fib1618: and we can now see the outline of a high level triangular pattern right now
2016-02-24 16:44:50 fib1618: on the negative side
2016-02-24 16:45:00 fib1618: we did bounce up today to the +75 level
2016-02-24 16:45:23 fib1618: so if we're going to be able to break out price wise above the late January highs
2016-02-24 16:45:44 fib1618: we'll need to see another poke above the +100 level
2016-02-24 16:45:52 fib1618: and candidly
2016-02-24 16:45:57 fib1618: this is not likely to happen
2016-02-24 16:46:04 fib1618: so if it does
2016-02-24 16:46:10 fib1618: this would be a highly bullish event that will need to be respected
2016-02-24 16:46:37 fib1618: the XLY components continue on their buy signal
2016-02-24 16:46:57 fib1618: and the XLY breadth MCSUM moved above its horizontal resistance point today
2016-02-24 16:47:06 fib1618: so a challenge of the zero line is now likely
2016-02-24 16:47:26 fib1618: still looking for $77 there
2016-02-24 16:48:01 fib1618: new all time high close in the XLP today
2016-02-24 16:48:19 fib1618: as the XLP breadth MCO continues to see tremendous buying pressure right now
2016-02-24 16:48:39 fib1618: as this indicator maintains its sideways action at just below the +100 level
2016-02-24 16:48:47 fib1618: this is some feat
2016-02-24 16:48:52 fib1618: don't think I've seen this before
2016-02-24 16:49:08 fib1618: and meanwhile
2016-02-24 16:49:20 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCSUM is about to move up and through the +500 level now
2016-02-24 16:49:47 fib1618: and with the XLP MCO continuing to show tons of fuel to help it along
2016-02-24 16:50:18 fib1618: we shouldn't have any problems at all moving through this level on Thursday
2016-02-24 16:50:34 fib1618: in fact
2016-02-24 16:50:42 fib1618: if we look at the daily price chart of the XLP
2016-02-24 16:50:53 fib1618: it looks like we have the outline of a leading diagonal right now
2016-02-24 16:50:58 fib1618: let me check the daily volume
2016-02-24 16:52:07 fib1618: no...it's not a wedge or diagonal
2016-02-24 16:52:22 fib1618: but it does look like the beginning of a channel
2016-02-24 16:52:55 fib1618: give me a moment and I'll draw it up
2016-02-24 16:57:09 fib1618: [xlpchannel022416] 
2016-02-24 16:57:21 fib1618: we have volume confirmation for that
2016-02-24 16:57:55 fib1618: so we'll watch to see how this develops
2016-02-24 16:58:14 fib1618: with the XLP continuing to be on a buy signal
2016-02-24 16:58:36 fib1618: food stocks like Tyson would come under this heading
2016-02-24 16:59:08 fib1618: the XLE data continues to improve
2016-02-24 16:59:28 fib1618: but it still has a long way to go still yet before there's enough underlying support for prices to trend higher
2016-02-24 17:00:10 fib1618: with the next challenge for the XLE breadth MCSUM to reach, and then move above, the -500 level
2016-02-24 17:01:02 fib1618: the XLF price action continues to try to keep its head above water
2016-02-24 17:01:39 fib1618: with the XLF breadth MCO being the only one, so far, showing a lower close today
2016-02-24 17:02:12 fib1618: worried about this sector
2016-02-24 17:03:14 fib1618: though we do know that uptrends don't absolutely need the financials
2016-02-24 17:03:26 fib1618: but it sure doesn't hurt
2016-02-24 17:03:31 tuna: does the XLF concern you for the overall market longer term?
2016-02-24 17:04:06 fib1618: saw a nice bounce off the +50 level in the XLV breadth MCO
2016-02-24 17:04:34 fib1618: as the XLV breadth MCSUM moved up and through the -500 level
2016-02-24 17:04:54 fib1618: remember that the more and more MCSUM's that are able to move back above the -500 level
2016-02-24 17:05:10 fib1618: the better the overall cushion for the market on any kind of bearish ambushes
2016-02-24 17:05:32 fib1618: interesting juncture for the XLI breadth MCSUM
2016-02-24 17:05:37 fib1618: as it has now reached its zero line
2016-02-24 17:05:59 fib1618: which also provided overhead resistance in the late December period
2016-02-24 17:06:47 fib1618: while the XLI breadth MCO also moved slightly lower today
2016-02-24 17:06:56 fib1618: with a small point change
2016-02-24 17:07:22 fib1618: so being that we need to break above two levels of pattern resistance in the XLI breadth MCSUM
2016-02-24 17:07:51 fib1618: this compression point development in the MCO is rather timely
2016-02-24 17:08:27 fib1618: on the bear side
2016-02-24 17:08:59 fib1618: the MCO has been pretty much above its zero line now for about 5 weeks so we may not have enough in the tank to follow through
2016-02-24 17:09:52 fib1618: near term then it wouldn't be too surprising to see the sellers attempt to take control here at the zero line
2016-02-24 17:10:31 fib1618: and, of course, if the buyers are able to flex their muscles here
2016-02-24 17:10:47 fib1618: we should see many upside price pattern breakouts in the majors
2016-02-24 17:10:50 thespookyone: 5's and 10's pretty strong there
2016-02-24 17:11:12 fib1618: they are
2016-02-24 17:11:28 fib1618: and prices have now snapped back to what was previous support
2016-02-24 17:11:38 fib1618: this wold be one index to keep an eye on near term
2016-02-24 17:12:23 fib1618: the daily price pattern just doesn't have the right look here for a bottom
2016-02-24 17:13:09 fib1618: so maybe a quick close of the gap at 52.75 and then pull back?
2016-02-24 17:13:25 thespookyone: agreed, but if it exploded tomorrow, the pattern might look a lot better...
2016-02-24 17:13:35 fib1618: the rhythm bothers me
2016-02-24 17:13:40 fib1618: could be the spike in August
2016-02-24 17:13:57 fib1618: but we do have divergence with the MCO
2016-02-24 17:14:11 fib1618: but not on the MCSUM
2016-02-24 17:14:15 fib1618: ideally
2016-02-24 17:14:33 fib1618: we would like to see this take place for a more solid foundation
2016-02-24 17:14:51 fib1618: but like the XLP and XLY
2016-02-24 17:15:00 fib1618: it's been the "go to" for the last couple of weeks
2016-02-24 17:15:31 fib1618: we'll know pretty quick though
2016-02-24 17:15:38 fib1618: as to break above both levels of resistance
2016-02-24 17:15:48 fib1618: we usually see a dramatic move in the price averages
2016-02-24 17:16:20 fib1618: the XLB data continues to look corrective
2016-02-24 17:16:41 fib1618: though we are now approaching significant resistance levels in the XLB breadth MCSUM
2016-02-24 17:17:00 fib1618: one thing that we have done though since mid January
2016-02-24 17:17:23 fib1618: is that we have relieved much of the "oversold" readings we had back when there seem to be "no hope"
2016-02-24 17:18:01 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCSUM is also approaching its zero line
2016-02-24 17:18:41 fib1618: and we can see the trading range development on the price chart now
2016-02-24 17:18:58 fib1618: between $38.50 and $41.50
2016-02-24 17:19:13 fib1618: it should break higher though
2016-02-24 17:19:49 fib1618: and new all time price highs continue on the XLU
2016-02-24 17:20:41 fib1618: as money continues to pour into this sector in spite of being highly "overbought" since the beginning of the month
2016-02-24 17:20:47 fib1618: so...
2016-02-24 17:20:53 fib1618: patterns are improving
2016-02-24 17:21:02 fib1618: the defensive issues remain strong
2016-02-24 17:21:06 fib1618: as well as
2016-02-24 17:21:24 fib1618: the discretionary sector
2016-02-24 17:21:39 fib1618: oh...and the industrials
2016-02-24 17:21:48 fib1618: on the negative side
2016-02-24 17:22:17 fib1618: we have energy and the financials keeping things "weighted"
2016-02-24 17:22:25 fib1618: but overall
2016-02-24 17:22:52 fib1618: the month of February has been fairly good for the buyers
2016-02-24 17:22:58 fib1618: with the bad news being
2016-02-24 17:23:09 fib1618: that the buyers are now running out of time to keep this momentum going
2016-02-24 17:23:31 fib1618: and any break to a higher high here is likely to be short and sweet because of this
2016-02-24 17:23:45 fib1618: and then March providing one more probe lower
2016-02-24 17:23:52 thespookyone: funny, I was thinking the same of the bears today, short term
2016-02-24 17:24:13 fib1618: well...again
2016-02-24 17:24:27 fib1618: the MCSUM has been rising anywhere from 3-6 weeks now
2016-02-24 17:24:30 fib1618: which means
2016-02-24 17:24:38 fib1618: that the MCO has been net positive for this same time
2016-02-24 17:24:49 fib1618: we were deeply "oversold" in mid January
2016-02-24 17:25:05 fib1618: and though we have many divergences and thrusts with the MCO
2016-02-24 17:25:33 fib1618: the MCSUM's don't seem, as yet, ready to fully agree with the short term outlook
2016-02-24 17:25:43 fib1618: for now
2016-02-24 17:25:52 fib1618: oh...and let's not forget
2016-02-24 17:26:03 fib1618: that many of the A/D lines remain below their 200 day EMA's
2016-02-24 17:26:30 fib1618: and this is the line that differentiates between bullish and bearish behavior
2016-02-24 17:27:02 fib1618: just realized
2016-02-24 17:27:18 fib1618: that the XLU breadth MCSUM has now been strongly above its zero line now since August 1st
2016-02-24 17:27:33 fib1618: 5 months is a long time
2016-02-24 17:27:57 fib1618: lots of accumulation
2016-02-24 17:28:07 fib1618: let's see what it's yielding
2016-02-24 17:28:29 fib1618: 3.5%
2016-02-24 17:28:36 thespookyone: nice
2016-02-24 17:29:04 fib1618: so if the trend of money center banks continue to keep up this negative rates of return as policy
2016-02-24 17:29:21 fib1618: then money has no choice but to find the best yield in equities
2016-02-24 17:29:46 fib1618: now...we also saw that the REITS broke above their declining tops line last weekend
2016-02-24 17:29:52 fib1618: let me check the yields there
2016-02-24 17:30:12 fib1618: MORT is at 10.50%
2016-02-24 17:30:38 fib1618: and REM is at 12.65%
2016-02-24 17:30:54 fib1618: with a PE of 9
2016-02-24 17:31:33 fib1618: good EMA action in REM
2016-02-24 17:32:00 fib1618: MORT about the same
2016-02-24 17:32:14 fib1618: anyway...something to look at if money continues to support this sector
2016-02-24 17:32:18 fib1618: OBV's...
2016-02-24 17:32:47 fib1618: CVI's all bounced off their zero lines
2016-02-24 17:32:57 fib1618: so the bulls are trying to take control
2016-02-24 17:33:20 fib1618: STVO's throttled down a bit
2016-02-24 17:33:28 fib1618: VTO's still moving higher
2016-02-24 17:33:50 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.40
2016-02-24 17:34:00 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.09
2016-02-24 17:34:04 fib1618: getting better now
2016-02-24 17:34:08 fib1618: correcting on the fly
2016-02-24 17:34:29 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .87
2016-02-24 17:34:32 fib1618: Open 10 at .85
2016-02-24 17:35:02 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.03
2016-02-24 17:35:10 fib1618: Open 10 at .94
2016-02-24 17:35:16 fib1618: so...
2016-02-24 17:35:39 fib1618: the NASDAQ group of stocks seem to be closer to being "overbought"
2016-02-24 17:36:00 fib1618: while the NYSE group of issues seem closer to being "oversold"
2016-02-24 17:36:10 fib1618: not a lot of agreement there
2016-02-24 17:36:18 fib1618: and pretty typical of trading ranges
2016-02-24 17:36:21 fib1618: or at the very least
2016-02-24 17:36:24 fib1618: corrective sequences
2016-02-24 17:36:33 fib1618: given what we have tonight
2016-02-24 17:36:41 fib1618: let's look for a firm start in the morning
2016-02-24 17:36:58 fib1618: and see if the bulls find some support in their efforts
2016-02-24 17:37:24 fib1618: especially after Europe closes after the first 2 hours
2016-02-24 17:37:43 fib1618: how did gold close?
2016-02-24 17:38:03 fib1618: rally failure
2016-02-24 17:38:24 fib1618: high volume
2016-02-24 17:38:50 fib1618: and what should had been an upside thrust from a symmetrical triangle
2016-02-24 17:39:08 fib1618: looks like its running out of gas
2016-02-24 17:39:17 thespookyone: yep
2016-02-24 17:39:33 fib1618: just brought up a chart of NUGT
2016-02-24 17:39:43 fib1618: check out where the price bar topped out
2016-02-24 17:40:05 fib1618: right at the 200 day EMA
2016-02-24 17:40:09 fib1618: amazing
2016-02-24 17:40:32 thespookyone: "magic"
2016-02-24 17:40:51 fib1618: it really is something
2016-02-24 17:41:09 fib1618: let me check the BETS and we'll call it a day
2016-02-24 17:41:55 fib1618: upside volume really picking up now on ARCA
2016-02-24 17:42:54 fib1618: -10
2016-02-24 17:43:05 fib1618: well...at least we're consistent
2016-02-24 17:43:12 fib1618: "hit and run" still seems to be appropriate
2016-02-24 17:43:26 fib1618: and we'll see what the buyers are made of
2016-02-24 17:43:30 fib1618: anything else?
2016-02-24 17:44:19 thespookyone: let us go North till you hit Vegas, LOL
2016-02-24 17:44:34 fib1618: and then pull the plug, eh?
2016-02-24 17:44:50 fib1618: you never know
2016-02-24 17:44:51 thespookyone: well, like you said-short, and sweet
2016-02-24 17:45:10 fib1618: well...this is the earliest time I've ever had a show in Vegas
2016-02-24 17:45:19 fib1618: so I don't know how well this barometer is going to work out this time
2016-02-24 17:45:21 thespookyone: hmmm
2016-02-24 17:45:22 fib1618: we'll see
2016-02-24 17:45:34 fib1618: usually it's around mid March
2016-02-24 17:45:41 fib1618: so if we do have a bottom then
2016-02-24 17:45:45 fib1618: we can "pretend"
2016-02-24 17:45:47 fib1618: [smile]
2016-02-24 17:45:52 thespookyone: [smile]
2016-02-24 17:46:11 fib1618: tomorrow we'll look around at all the broader sectors and global indices
2016-02-24 17:46:20 fib1618: unless the market has other ideas
2016-02-24 17:46:30 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-02-24 17:46:34 fib1618: I'm going to take my leave
2016-02-24 17:46:44 fib1618: everyone have a great day on Thursday
2016-02-24 17:46:57 fib1618: and we'll meet up again at the same time...same channel
2016-02-24 17:46:58 fib1618: good night


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