All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 5,160
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-02-24 16:00:13 fib1618: good day
2016-02-24 16:00:17 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-02-24 16:01:33 tuna: great thanks how bout you?
2016-02-24 16:04:43 fib1618: doing fine...just rushing around doing stuff that comes before a trip
2016-02-24 16:06:06 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-02-24 16:06:57 fib1618: well...look at that...we closed up today!
2016-02-24 16:07:16 fib1618: so we got what was expected
2016-02-24 16:07:26 fib1618: a down open and strength later in the day
2016-02-24 16:07:39 fib1618: that's good news
2016-02-24 16:07:52 fib1618: because we're reading the tea leaves right
2016-02-24 16:09:47 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and see what we have to work with
2016-02-24 16:10:29 fib1618: after finding near term support at the +50 level
2016-02-24 16:10:39 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO closed higher today
2016-02-24 16:11:05 fib1618: in what would seem to be an obligatory technical bounce
2016-02-24 16:11:37 fib1618: looking at the components
2016-02-24 16:11:49 fib1618: and we see that the 5% Trend is back above its zero line
2016-02-24 16:11:59 fib1618: but not with a lot of vigor as yet
2016-02-24 16:12:27 fib1618: price bar wise
2016-02-24 16:12:47 fib1618: we not only closed the pattern gap from last week
2016-02-24 16:13:01 fib1618: but also closed above the last week or so days of previous closes
2016-02-24 16:13:17 fib1618: this would then indicate that we should start off positive in the morning
2016-02-24 16:14:00 fib1618: and we'll have to see if those hiding come out from behind the bearish bushes and join on the buy side
2016-02-24 16:14:23 fib1618: meaning that the 1st hour of trading will likely be our proxy for the rest of the day and week
2016-02-24 16:14:57 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-02-24 16:15:08 fib1618: and we have pretty much the same situation going on here
2016-02-24 16:15:33 fib1618: though the 5% Trend of the MCO composite is showing better strength of pattern at this time with a successful bounce near its zero line
2016-02-24 16:16:25 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM is now a day away from reaching the -250 level
2016-02-24 16:16:44 fib1618: so we'll see if this provides some near term natural resistance in the pattern or not
2016-02-24 16:17:13 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-02-24 16:17:20 fib1618: and here we also bounced higher today
2016-02-24 16:17:36 fib1618: but settled at just above the important +50 level
2016-02-24 16:17:52 fib1618: where we might find some near term resistance
2016-02-24 16:18:18 fib1618: this bounce in the MCO today was part of the 10% Trend bouncing off its zero line
2016-02-24 16:18:52 fib1618: making Thursday another one of those important character days for the bulls
2016-02-24 16:19:11 fib1618: the NASDAQ price action did as we expected today
2016-02-24 16:19:21 fib1618: by moving lower to close last week's pattern gap
2016-02-24 16:19:48 fib1618: before recovering in the afternoon session to close sharply higher
2016-02-24 16:20:01 fib1618: and at the second highest level since the 2/11 lows
2016-02-24 16:20:16 fib1618: and with it
2016-02-24 16:20:53 fib1618: the probabilities are more than 50% that we're now likely to challenge the late January highs at 4600
2016-02-24 16:21:44 fib1618: the NDX price action is in a better position to reach this same high point in its pattern
2016-02-24 16:22:11 fib1618: since both of the NDX MCO components are above their zero line
2016-02-24 16:22:19 fib1618: and we saw bounce support in the 5%
2016-02-24 16:22:48 fib1618: so let's look for the top 100 to do the majority of the work near term to reach these same highs of earlier this month
2016-02-24 16:23:34 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO continues to show a lot of strength currently
2016-02-24 16:24:19 fib1618: and we can see how fast money has been flowing into this index by the distance of the individual gaps that we see in the SPX breadth MCSUM
2016-02-24 16:24:32 fib1618: looks like a zero line challenge is very likely now
2016-02-24 16:24:47 fib1618: and if the buying holds up
2016-02-24 16:24:54 fib1618: we can be there by early next week
2016-02-24 16:25:51 fib1618: we were also able to get our technical bounce in the OEX breadth MCO at the +50 level
2016-02-24 16:26:24 fib1618: but not nearly enough to suggest that we may see a continuation of this on Thursday
2016-02-24 16:27:32 fib1618: so, at this point, it doesn't look likely that the OEX breadth MCSUM is going to be able to move back above the -250 level
2016-02-24 16:28:03 fib1618: at least without some sort of a pullback that would last a week or two beforehand
2016-02-24 16:28:12 fib1618: of course
2016-02-24 16:28:44 fib1618: that could change tomorrow IF we see exceptional follow through to today's intraday reversal
2016-02-24 16:29:18 fib1618: it's just that we don't have the energy to do so right
2016-02-24 16:30:19 fib1618: seems like the Dow breadth MCO and MCSUM have a similar vibe to their structures
2016-02-24 16:30:47 fib1618: which is unusual because the large component difference between the two indices
2016-02-24 16:31:43 fib1618: which also includes the likelihood of a zero line challenge of the Dow MCSUM zero line sometime the early part of next week
2016-02-24 16:32:23 fib1618: nice strong reversal bar on the MID price chart today
2016-02-24 16:32:54 fib1618: but like of the charts we've seen so far
2016-02-24 16:33:04 fib1618: today's MCO seems to be lagging a bit
2016-02-24 16:33:28 fib1618: this could be corrected by another day of back and fill on Thursday going into Friday
2016-02-24 16:33:30 fib1618: but overall
2016-02-24 16:33:46 fib1618: looks positive enough to move to a higher price high
2016-02-24 16:33:57 fib1618: especially if we're seeing the same thing in the SML
2016-02-24 16:34:10 fib1618: and we are!
2016-02-24 16:34:25 fib1618: as we closed at the highest level since the lows of earlier this month
2016-02-24 16:34:52 fib1618: too bad that the SML breadth MCO didn't fully confirm the move though
2016-02-24 16:35:14 fib1618: but the 10% Trend did show a bit better strength
2016-02-24 16:36:07 fib1618: so with a break above 630
2016-02-24 16:36:12 fib1618: and a higher high in the MCO
2016-02-24 16:36:27 fib1618: this would be a strong technical breakout overall
2016-02-24 16:36:52 fib1618: and a full snapback to the 640 level would be indicated there short term
2016-02-24 16:37:04 fib1618: and probably by the middle part of next week
2016-02-24 16:37:27 fib1618: still...we have to see the break happen before we can be sure
2016-02-24 16:38:27 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCSUM moved up and through the -500 level today
2016-02-24 16:39:27 fib1618: and that's a longer term good sign that the bottom we had earlier this month was an important one
2016-02-24 16:39:36 fib1618: so...
2016-02-24 16:39:50 fib1618: we had the best of both worlds today
2016-02-24 16:40:02 fib1618: where a sell off was likely from some barometers
2016-02-24 16:40:09 fib1618: while others indicated a firm close
2016-02-24 16:40:24 fib1618: with the strong reversal bars on the price charts as a result
2016-02-24 16:40:44 fib1618: this indicates that the buyers are now beginning to show their muscle
2016-02-24 16:40:47 fib1618: or better said
2016-02-24 16:41:01 fib1618: their ability to take control of the price action is getting stronger on a daily basis
2016-02-24 16:43:20 fib1618: if this is the actual case
2016-02-24 16:43:28 fib1618: we should see this in the sectors
2016-02-24 16:43:33 fib1618: so let's move to there
2016-02-24 16:44:03 fib1618: we see that strong strength continues with the XLY breadth MCO
2016-02-24 16:44:25 fib1618: and we can now see the outline of a high level triangular pattern right now
2016-02-24 16:44:50 fib1618: on the negative side
2016-02-24 16:45:00 fib1618: we did bounce up today to the +75 level
2016-02-24 16:45:23 fib1618: so if we're going to be able to break out price wise above the late January highs
2016-02-24 16:45:44 fib1618: we'll need to see another poke above the +100 level
2016-02-24 16:45:52 fib1618: and candidly
2016-02-24 16:45:57 fib1618: this is not likely to happen
2016-02-24 16:46:04 fib1618: so if it does
2016-02-24 16:46:10 fib1618: this would be a highly bullish event that will need to be respected
2016-02-24 16:46:37 fib1618: the XLY components continue on their buy signal
2016-02-24 16:46:57 fib1618: and the XLY breadth MCSUM moved above its horizontal resistance point today
2016-02-24 16:47:06 fib1618: so a challenge of the zero line is now likely
2016-02-24 16:47:26 fib1618: still looking for $77 there
2016-02-24 16:48:01 fib1618: new all time high close in the XLP today
2016-02-24 16:48:19 fib1618: as the XLP breadth MCO continues to see tremendous buying pressure right now
2016-02-24 16:48:39 fib1618: as this indicator maintains its sideways action at just below the +100 level
2016-02-24 16:48:47 fib1618: this is some feat
2016-02-24 16:48:52 fib1618: don't think I've seen this before
2016-02-24 16:49:08 fib1618: and meanwhile
2016-02-24 16:49:20 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCSUM is about to move up and through the +500 level now
2016-02-24 16:49:47 fib1618: and with the XLP MCO continuing to show tons of fuel to help it along
2016-02-24 16:50:18 fib1618: we shouldn't have any problems at all moving through this level on Thursday
2016-02-24 16:50:34 fib1618: in fact
2016-02-24 16:50:42 fib1618: if we look at the daily price chart of the XLP
2016-02-24 16:50:53 fib1618: it looks like we have the outline of a leading diagonal right now
2016-02-24 16:50:58 fib1618: let me check the daily volume
2016-02-24 16:52:07 fib1618:'s not a wedge or diagonal
2016-02-24 16:52:22 fib1618: but it does look like the beginning of a channel
2016-02-24 16:52:55 fib1618: give me a moment and I'll draw it up
2016-02-24 16:57:09 fib1618: [xlpchannel022416] 
2016-02-24 16:57:21 fib1618: we have volume confirmation for that
2016-02-24 16:57:55 fib1618: so we'll watch to see how this develops
2016-02-24 16:58:14 fib1618: with the XLP continuing to be on a buy signal
2016-02-24 16:58:36 fib1618: food stocks like Tyson would come under this heading
2016-02-24 16:59:08 fib1618: the XLE data continues to improve
2016-02-24 16:59:28 fib1618: but it still has a long way to go still yet before there's enough underlying support for prices to trend higher
2016-02-24 17:00:10 fib1618: with the next challenge for the XLE breadth MCSUM to reach, and then move above, the -500 level
2016-02-24 17:01:02 fib1618: the XLF price action continues to try to keep its head above water
2016-02-24 17:01:39 fib1618: with the XLF breadth MCO being the only one, so far, showing a lower close today
2016-02-24 17:02:12 fib1618: worried about this sector
2016-02-24 17:03:14 fib1618: though we do know that uptrends don't absolutely need the financials
2016-02-24 17:03:26 fib1618: but it sure doesn't hurt
2016-02-24 17:03:31 tuna: does the XLF concern you for the overall market longer term?
2016-02-24 17:04:06 fib1618: saw a nice bounce off the +50 level in the XLV breadth MCO
2016-02-24 17:04:34 fib1618: as the XLV breadth MCSUM moved up and through the -500 level
2016-02-24 17:04:54 fib1618: remember that the more and more MCSUM's that are able to move back above the -500 level
2016-02-24 17:05:10 fib1618: the better the overall cushion for the market on any kind of bearish ambushes
2016-02-24 17:05:32 fib1618: interesting juncture for the XLI breadth MCSUM
2016-02-24 17:05:37 fib1618: as it has now reached its zero line
2016-02-24 17:05:59 fib1618: which also provided overhead resistance in the late December period
2016-02-24 17:06:47 fib1618: while the XLI breadth MCO also moved slightly lower today
2016-02-24 17:06:56 fib1618: with a small point change
2016-02-24 17:07:22 fib1618: so being that we need to break above two levels of pattern resistance in the XLI breadth MCSUM
2016-02-24 17:07:51 fib1618: this compression point development in the MCO is rather timely
2016-02-24 17:08:27 fib1618: on the bear side
2016-02-24 17:08:59 fib1618: the MCO has been pretty much above its zero line now for about 5 weeks so we may not have enough in the tank to follow through
2016-02-24 17:09:52 fib1618: near term then it wouldn't be too surprising to see the sellers attempt to take control here at the zero line
2016-02-24 17:10:31 fib1618: and, of course, if the buyers are able to flex their muscles here
2016-02-24 17:10:47 fib1618: we should see many upside price pattern breakouts in the majors
2016-02-24 17:10:50 thespookyone: 5's and 10's pretty strong there
2016-02-24 17:11:12 fib1618: they are
2016-02-24 17:11:28 fib1618: and prices have now snapped back to what was previous support
2016-02-24 17:11:38 fib1618: this wold be one index to keep an eye on near term
2016-02-24 17:12:23 fib1618: the daily price pattern just doesn't have the right look here for a bottom
2016-02-24 17:13:09 fib1618: so maybe a quick close of the gap at 52.75 and then pull back?
2016-02-24 17:13:25 thespookyone: agreed, but if it exploded tomorrow, the pattern might look a lot better...
2016-02-24 17:13:35 fib1618: the rhythm bothers me
2016-02-24 17:13:40 fib1618: could be the spike in August
2016-02-24 17:13:57 fib1618: but we do have divergence with the MCO
2016-02-24 17:14:11 fib1618: but not on the MCSUM
2016-02-24 17:14:15 fib1618: ideally
2016-02-24 17:14:33 fib1618: we would like to see this take place for a more solid foundation
2016-02-24 17:14:51 fib1618: but like the XLP and XLY
2016-02-24 17:15:00 fib1618: it's been the "go to" for the last couple of weeks
2016-02-24 17:15:31 fib1618: we'll know pretty quick though
2016-02-24 17:15:38 fib1618: as to break above both levels of resistance
2016-02-24 17:15:48 fib1618: we usually see a dramatic move in the price averages
2016-02-24 17:16:20 fib1618: the XLB data continues to look corrective
2016-02-24 17:16:41 fib1618: though we are now approaching significant resistance levels in the XLB breadth MCSUM
2016-02-24 17:17:00 fib1618: one thing that we have done though since mid January
2016-02-24 17:17:23 fib1618: is that we have relieved much of the "oversold" readings we had back when there seem to be "no hope"
2016-02-24 17:18:01 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCSUM is also approaching its zero line
2016-02-24 17:18:41 fib1618: and we can see the trading range development on the price chart now
2016-02-24 17:18:58 fib1618: between $38.50 and $41.50
2016-02-24 17:19:13 fib1618: it should break higher though
2016-02-24 17:19:49 fib1618: and new all time price highs continue on the XLU
2016-02-24 17:20:41 fib1618: as money continues to pour into this sector in spite of being highly "overbought" since the beginning of the month
2016-02-24 17:20:47 fib1618: so...
2016-02-24 17:20:53 fib1618: patterns are improving
2016-02-24 17:21:02 fib1618: the defensive issues remain strong
2016-02-24 17:21:06 fib1618: as well as
2016-02-24 17:21:24 fib1618: the discretionary sector
2016-02-24 17:21:39 fib1618: oh...and the industrials
2016-02-24 17:21:48 fib1618: on the negative side
2016-02-24 17:22:17 fib1618: we have energy and the financials keeping things "weighted"
2016-02-24 17:22:25 fib1618: but overall
2016-02-24 17:22:52 fib1618: the month of February has been fairly good for the buyers
2016-02-24 17:22:58 fib1618: with the bad news being
2016-02-24 17:23:09 fib1618: that the buyers are now running out of time to keep this momentum going
2016-02-24 17:23:31 fib1618: and any break to a higher high here is likely to be short and sweet because of this
2016-02-24 17:23:45 fib1618: and then March providing one more probe lower
2016-02-24 17:23:52 thespookyone: funny, I was thinking the same of the bears today, short term
2016-02-24 17:24:13 fib1618: well...again
2016-02-24 17:24:27 fib1618: the MCSUM has been rising anywhere from 3-6 weeks now
2016-02-24 17:24:30 fib1618: which means
2016-02-24 17:24:38 fib1618: that the MCO has been net positive for this same time
2016-02-24 17:24:49 fib1618: we were deeply "oversold" in mid January
2016-02-24 17:25:05 fib1618: and though we have many divergences and thrusts with the MCO
2016-02-24 17:25:33 fib1618: the MCSUM's don't seem, as yet, ready to fully agree with the short term outlook
2016-02-24 17:25:43 fib1618: for now
2016-02-24 17:25:52 fib1618: oh...and let's not forget
2016-02-24 17:26:03 fib1618: that many of the A/D lines remain below their 200 day EMA's
2016-02-24 17:26:30 fib1618: and this is the line that differentiates between bullish and bearish behavior
2016-02-24 17:27:02 fib1618: just realized
2016-02-24 17:27:18 fib1618: that the XLU breadth MCSUM has now been strongly above its zero line now since August 1st
2016-02-24 17:27:33 fib1618: 5 months is a long time
2016-02-24 17:27:57 fib1618: lots of accumulation
2016-02-24 17:28:07 fib1618: let's see what it's yielding
2016-02-24 17:28:29 fib1618: 3.5%
2016-02-24 17:28:36 thespookyone: nice
2016-02-24 17:29:04 fib1618: so if the trend of money center banks continue to keep up this negative rates of return as policy
2016-02-24 17:29:21 fib1618: then money has no choice but to find the best yield in equities
2016-02-24 17:29:46 fib1618: now...we also saw that the REITS broke above their declining tops line last weekend
2016-02-24 17:29:52 fib1618: let me check the yields there
2016-02-24 17:30:12 fib1618: MORT is at 10.50%
2016-02-24 17:30:38 fib1618: and REM is at 12.65%
2016-02-24 17:30:54 fib1618: with a PE of 9
2016-02-24 17:31:33 fib1618: good EMA action in REM
2016-02-24 17:32:00 fib1618: MORT about the same
2016-02-24 17:32:14 fib1618: anyway...something to look at if money continues to support this sector
2016-02-24 17:32:18 fib1618: OBV's...
2016-02-24 17:32:47 fib1618: CVI's all bounced off their zero lines
2016-02-24 17:32:57 fib1618: so the bulls are trying to take control
2016-02-24 17:33:20 fib1618: STVO's throttled down a bit
2016-02-24 17:33:28 fib1618: VTO's still moving higher
2016-02-24 17:33:50 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.40
2016-02-24 17:34:00 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.09
2016-02-24 17:34:04 fib1618: getting better now
2016-02-24 17:34:08 fib1618: correcting on the fly
2016-02-24 17:34:29 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .87
2016-02-24 17:34:32 fib1618: Open 10 at .85
2016-02-24 17:35:02 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.03
2016-02-24 17:35:10 fib1618: Open 10 at .94
2016-02-24 17:35:16 fib1618: so...
2016-02-24 17:35:39 fib1618: the NASDAQ group of stocks seem to be closer to being "overbought"
2016-02-24 17:36:00 fib1618: while the NYSE group of issues seem closer to being "oversold"
2016-02-24 17:36:10 fib1618: not a lot of agreement there
2016-02-24 17:36:18 fib1618: and pretty typical of trading ranges
2016-02-24 17:36:21 fib1618: or at the very least
2016-02-24 17:36:24 fib1618: corrective sequences
2016-02-24 17:36:33 fib1618: given what we have tonight
2016-02-24 17:36:41 fib1618: let's look for a firm start in the morning
2016-02-24 17:36:58 fib1618: and see if the bulls find some support in their efforts
2016-02-24 17:37:24 fib1618: especially after Europe closes after the first 2 hours
2016-02-24 17:37:43 fib1618: how did gold close?
2016-02-24 17:38:03 fib1618: rally failure
2016-02-24 17:38:24 fib1618: high volume
2016-02-24 17:38:50 fib1618: and what should had been an upside thrust from a symmetrical triangle
2016-02-24 17:39:08 fib1618: looks like its running out of gas
2016-02-24 17:39:17 thespookyone: yep
2016-02-24 17:39:33 fib1618: just brought up a chart of NUGT
2016-02-24 17:39:43 fib1618: check out where the price bar topped out
2016-02-24 17:40:05 fib1618: right at the 200 day EMA
2016-02-24 17:40:09 fib1618: amazing
2016-02-24 17:40:32 thespookyone: "magic"
2016-02-24 17:40:51 fib1618: it really is something
2016-02-24 17:41:09 fib1618: let me check the BETS and we'll call it a day
2016-02-24 17:41:55 fib1618: upside volume really picking up now on ARCA
2016-02-24 17:42:54 fib1618: -10
2016-02-24 17:43:05 fib1618: least we're consistent
2016-02-24 17:43:12 fib1618: "hit and run" still seems to be appropriate
2016-02-24 17:43:26 fib1618: and we'll see what the buyers are made of
2016-02-24 17:43:30 fib1618: anything else?
2016-02-24 17:44:19 thespookyone: let us go North till you hit Vegas, LOL
2016-02-24 17:44:34 fib1618: and then pull the plug, eh?
2016-02-24 17:44:50 fib1618: you never know
2016-02-24 17:44:51 thespookyone: well, like you said-short, and sweet
2016-02-24 17:45:10 fib1618: well...this is the earliest time I've ever had a show in Vegas
2016-02-24 17:45:19 fib1618: so I don't know how well this barometer is going to work out this time
2016-02-24 17:45:21 thespookyone: hmmm
2016-02-24 17:45:22 fib1618: we'll see
2016-02-24 17:45:34 fib1618: usually it's around mid March
2016-02-24 17:45:41 fib1618: so if we do have a bottom then
2016-02-24 17:45:45 fib1618: we can "pretend"
2016-02-24 17:45:47 fib1618: [smile]
2016-02-24 17:45:52 thespookyone: [smile]
2016-02-24 17:46:11 fib1618: tomorrow we'll look around at all the broader sectors and global indices
2016-02-24 17:46:20 fib1618: unless the market has other ideas
2016-02-24 17:46:30 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-02-24 17:46:34 fib1618: I'm going to take my leave
2016-02-24 17:46:44 fib1618: everyone have a great day on Thursday
2016-02-24 17:46:57 fib1618: and we'll meet up again at the same time...same channel
2016-02-24 17:46:58 fib1618: good night

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Copyright 2000-2020 Technical Watch