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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-02-24 15:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-02-24 16:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-02-24 16:00:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, volatility is heaven
2011-02-24 16:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...emotional moves will do that - fun, fun, fun!
2011-02-24 16:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-02-24 16:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not even a itty bitty comment?
2011-02-24 16:02:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oversold can get more oversold...
2011-02-24 16:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it can with being "overbought"
2011-02-24 16:03:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you bet
2011-02-24 16:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the difference between longevity of extremes is how liquid we are
2011-02-24 16:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...illiquid
2011-02-24 16:03:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: absolutely
2011-02-24 16:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...do we have a near term bottom in place?
2011-02-24 16:04:37 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I think we have one more move down tomorrow and then up
2011-02-24 16:04:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: VST, I'd say probably
2011-02-24 16:04:51 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: And not a big move
2011-02-24 16:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I understand that there was a hard reversal in crude in the afternoon today?
2011-02-24 16:05:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-02-24 16:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should do it
2011-02-24 16:05:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: seems the Libyan rebels want to PROTECT the oil, not blow it up, LOL
2011-02-24 16:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course...how else are they to promote their agenda without money?
2011-02-24 16:06:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: absolutely, but the media certainly inferred otherwise LOL
2011-02-24 16:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've been more than fascinated at how all of this is being reported
2011-02-24 16:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-02-24 16:07:00 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I have been looking into Elliot over the past few days and have been labeling waves I am curious for how the internals can guide the labeling.
2011-02-24 16:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: easily
2011-02-24 16:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you want guidelines?
2011-02-24 16:07:47 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: You got it
2011-02-24 16:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3rd waves show the most extremes in the internals
2011-02-24 16:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 4th waves take out the extreme points made in second waves
2011-02-24 16:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 5th waves diverge with 3rd waves
2011-02-24 16:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: C waves diverge with A waves
2011-02-24 16:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's it
2011-02-24 16:09:36 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: OK Thanks a lot! Is there a way of deciding whether its a divergent 5th wave or the B wave of an irregular flat?
2011-02-24 16:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: B waves generally don't take out the starting point of A
2011-02-24 16:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they do...then you usually have an X wave
2011-02-24 16:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it all really depends on the amplitude of the A/D line in relation to the short term oscillator readings of its trend
2011-02-24 16:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the tool there to use is...
2011-02-24 16:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO
2011-02-24 16:11:09 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I was thinking about the B wave in the 2000 top that you showed a week ago. Could it not have been a divergent 5th wave?
2011-02-24 16:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might of been
2011-02-24 16:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except
2011-02-24 16:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the direction of the NYAD line was already declining prior to the top
2011-02-24 16:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it were a 5th wave
2011-02-24 16:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line would had already diverged but NOT been trending to the downside
2011-02-24 16:12:24 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: OK. I see. That makes good sense
2011-02-24 16:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the A/D line measures the broadest market direction of money flow
2011-02-24 16:12:51 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: So it's a degree question. Divergence in NYAD contra divergence in MCSUM
2011-02-24 16:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the A/D line is declining, it tells us that the majority of stocks trading on that exchange are already in a bear market
2011-02-24 16:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's ALWAYS a question of the degree of trend when it comes to Elliott
2011-02-24 16:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a very important point you bring up
2011-02-24 16:13:55 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Divergence in NYAD tends to mean a B wave, whereas MCSUM divergence would point in the direction of a 5th wave?
2011-02-24 16:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: two different plains of thought
2011-02-24 16:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's separate the two
2011-02-24 16:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line is your money flow line
2011-02-24 16:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM measures the intermediate term TREND of this same A/D line
2011-02-24 16:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-02-24 16:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the A/D line will show divergence between 3 and 5 and A and C
2011-02-24 16:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: B waves are more of a lack of participation
2011-02-24 16:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by its very definition
2011-02-24 16:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: B waves smell
2011-02-24 16:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as in something isn't right
2011-02-24 16:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that there's something out of sync
2011-02-24 16:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either with the raw A/D data
2011-02-24 16:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the short or intermediate term trend data of this same information
2011-02-24 16:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OR...
2011-02-24 16:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be something as simple as intramarket relationships
2011-02-24 16:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the Dow and SPX rally
2011-02-24 16:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the SML and MID doesn't
2011-02-24 16:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember this very important piece of information
2011-02-24 16:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for markets to TREND
2011-02-24 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to IMPULSE
2011-02-24 16:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we MUST be in gear in this same direction without any misfiring
2011-02-24 16:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get into your car
2011-02-24 16:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one of the pistons are misfiring
2011-02-24 16:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might be able to make some head way
2011-02-24 16:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will be jerky in doing so
2011-02-24 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: B waves are bridges between impulses
2011-02-24 16:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are corrections within corrections
2011-02-24 16:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as in
2011-02-24 16:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when a market moves too far...too fast
2011-02-24 16:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a B wave corrects that situation
2011-02-24 16:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dead cat bounces and thrusts created by vacuums
2011-02-24 16:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they fill any voids that area created by the initial push in the opposite direction of the underlying trend
2011-02-24 16:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but sometimes
2011-02-24 16:19:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the indecision process is so acute
2011-02-24 16:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it takes more time to find balance again between buyers and sellers
2011-02-24 16:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is how triangles form
2011-02-24 16:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zig zags are natural (economic) process correctional sequences
2011-02-24 16:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: flats are more emotional in their make up
2011-02-24 16:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the more the emotion involved with a move
2011-02-24 16:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more the probability that we're going to do a flat
2011-02-24 16:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is also why
2011-02-24 16:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: flats patterns are signs of strength in the prevailing trend
2011-02-24 16:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they come "out of the blue"
2011-02-24 16:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the basic description of a 4th wave
2011-02-24 16:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the sake of time
2011-02-24 16:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would again suggest that you use the Elliott tutorial I wrote up as a primer in this area
2011-02-24 16:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will help you immensely in recognizing probable wave structures
2011-02-24 16:23:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since Elliott has its backbone based on mass psychology
2011-02-24 16:23:20 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Ah yes, you linked to it some time ago. I will read it.
2011-02-24 16:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once you recognize the ingredients that make up a price structure
2011-02-24 16:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will also help you apply correct labeling without the benefit of personal bias
2011-02-24 16:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take the last couple of days
2011-02-24 16:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all knew that things were not just going to go away in the middle east
2011-02-24 16:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market continued to move higher and higher in spite of what many thought was negative news
2011-02-24 16:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also knew that Libya was becoming more and more of a problem Wednesday of last week
2011-02-24 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then it took entire week before the market decided that it meant something
2011-02-24 16:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...
2011-02-24 16:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being that it was OPEX on Friday
2011-02-24 16:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and specialists probably distributed a LOT of inventory from this OPEX period
2011-02-24 16:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they could trigger a sell off just so they can merchandise (accumulate) this same inventory at wholesale levels
2011-02-24 16:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all a game folks
2011-02-24 16:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a business
2011-02-24 16:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have run your own business of lot of this will make a great amount of sense
2011-02-24 16:27:22 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: They kept it up until late in the European session on Monday
2011-02-24 16:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-02-24 16:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since Euronext is now joined at the hip with the NYSE....
2011-02-24 16:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-02-24 16:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is another theory that we can talk about another time
2011-02-24 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bottom line here is simple
2011-02-24 16:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what is breadth of market doing?
2011-02-24 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it still in a bullish configuration?
2011-02-24 16:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did it show any kind of divergence before this recent sell off?
2011-02-24 16:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what is the MCSUM doing?
2011-02-24 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are the individual postings of the MCSUM congested or expanding?
2011-02-24 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is volume leading us lower?
2011-02-24 16:29:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talk about this all the time
2011-02-24 16:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, on Tuesday, we noted that we were showing pattern breakdowns in the MCSUM volume data
2011-02-24 16:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also noted that for almost a month this same volume data was highly congested and needed to show expansion to the upside if the bulls were going to be able to extend the time needed to finish off this current uptrend
2011-02-24 16:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all physics
2011-02-24 16:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if everything isn't moving in unison
2011-02-24 16:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we don't have that big "heave ho" factor present
2011-02-24 16:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will always be vulnerable to a "surprise"
2011-02-24 16:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-02-24 16:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the things we talked about on Tuesday was
2011-02-24 16:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we were "entitled" to a snapback to or towards many of the breadth MCO's on Wednesday
2011-02-24 16:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the bulls needed to do this quickly to fill the downside gap or we're probably going to be locked into some sort of trading range for then next couple of weeks
2011-02-24 16:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the weakness continued
2011-02-24 16:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now...the uptrend is now pausing
2011-02-24 16:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-02-24 16:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I haven't looked at today's data as yet
2011-02-24 16:33:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but based on the raw A/D data
2011-02-24 16:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll probably see some small point changes today
2011-02-24 16:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note from yesterday
2011-02-24 16:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that many of the breadth MCO's had also reached a point in which they were minimally "oversold" and that there would a good chance of a new effort to (again) snapback to or towards the MCO zero lines
2011-02-24 16:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, with that said, let me open up DP and see what we got to work with
2011-02-24 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving close to the -50 level yesterday
2011-02-24 16:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO did, indeed, bounce off this minimally "oversold" level
2011-02-24 16:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember when it comes to the MCO
2011-02-24 16:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 50 level is the same as...the 70 or 30% levels on a MACD indicator
2011-02-24 16:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we get highly "oversold" or "overbought" is when we get to the 80 level
2011-02-24 16:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with trend change numbers coming in at around the 100 level
2011-02-24 16:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...you'll usually see these kind of extremes with least amount of components being measured
2011-02-24 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2011-02-24 16:37:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will not see real high numbers like this in the RA NYSE breadth MCO but you will with the Dow
2011-02-24 16:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when we get to the 50 level on the MCO
2011-02-24 16:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like the "rule of 250's" with the MCSUM
2011-02-24 16:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-02-24 16:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could probably make a case that the MCO follows the "rule of 25's"
2011-02-24 16:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we got the beginning of a turnaround today in the CO MCO
2011-02-24 16:38:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we take our line of vision down to the components
2011-02-24 16:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the 10% Trend is also at a level just below its zero line
2011-02-24 16:39:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where a bounce would be the next technical expectation
2011-02-24 16:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you remember back in November
2011-02-24 16:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we went over what is usual and customary for a wash out counter trend structures to end
2011-02-24 16:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first we see the 10% Index hit the zero line
2011-02-24 16:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it usually will bounce off the zero line
2011-02-24 16:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it will snapback to this same zero line all dependent on where it rests
2011-02-24 16:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example...now, we should only expect a snapback to or towards the zero line because we moved below it
2011-02-24 16:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once this is done, we will then see the 10% dig deeper into negative territory
2011-02-24 16:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will then bring the 5% down to the zero line
2011-02-24 16:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will then bounce or snapback
2011-02-24 16:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then it will go below the zero line
2011-02-24 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the intermediate term trend is strong
2011-02-24 16:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what is being witnessed is only a pause to refresh in this same trend
2011-02-24 16:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the 5% joins the 10% below the zero line
2011-02-24 16:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will usually see an end to this same corrective process
2011-02-24 16:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we did last Thanksgiving
2011-02-24 16:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see it?
2011-02-24 16:43:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, and a great explanation, thanks!
2011-02-24 16:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...let's take this one step further
2011-02-24 16:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get the NYAD line for a moment
2011-02-24 16:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2011-02-24 16:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me a moment...I want to annotate a chart
2011-02-24 16:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-02-24 16:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before I post the chart
2011-02-24 16:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the pastwe've talked about how when patterns get extended
2011-02-24 16:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these extremes in movement
2011-02-24 16:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether they be with money flow
2011-02-24 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or just with price patterns themselves
2011-02-24 16:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it's the job of a "pause to refresh" to bring back parity between buyers and sellers on a trending basis
2011-02-24 16:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to measure things like this
2011-02-24 16:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we use a tool as simple as an EMA to help us understand when there might be enough balance overall to where the prevailing trend can once again move forward
2011-02-24 16:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a chart of the NYAD line - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/nyad022411.png
2011-02-24 16:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have highlighted two areas on the chart
2011-02-24 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what usually will happen when we get trends that overextend
2011-02-24 16:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that time is needed to bring parity back to the pattern
2011-02-24 16:52:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note that where I have marked in yellow
2011-02-24 16:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how these areas had to "pause" in order for the extended trend to rest
2011-02-24 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once the 19 day EMA was able to move below the 39 day EMA
2011-02-24 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the A/D line found parity and was once again able to move with the prevailing trend
2011-02-24 16:53:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now sometimes what happens is
2011-02-24 16:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend becomes too strong
2011-02-24 16:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still the market will find a way to "correct on the fly"
2011-02-24 16:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those are the areas marked in peach
2011-02-24 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where time was needed to catch our breath
2011-02-24 16:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we needed to do was to only find intermediate term support as reflected by the 39 day EMA
2011-02-24 16:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the concept here of pausing pretty much remains consistent between the raw data and any oscillator that would measures such occurrences
2011-02-24 16:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should also note
2011-02-24 16:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with all of the terrible news of late
2011-02-24 16:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NYAD line hasn't (as yet) even tested its short term trend line (19 day EMA)
2011-02-24 16:56:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now remember how we've talked about the "angle of ascent" in the price structures of late?
2011-02-24 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most basic trends will travel in up to 45 degree angles
2011-02-24 16:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a normal strong trend
2011-02-24 16:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when we start to accentuate this angle
2011-02-24 16:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we start to increase the amplitude of the trend
2011-02-24 16:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we will usually find that unlike during the times in which the trend was "normal"
2011-02-24 16:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: accelerated pattern trends don't necessarily have to find this parity quotient by either of the two ways in which I've highlighted on this chart
2011-02-24 16:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they only have to find this parity factor by just pausing enough to test its short term "trend line"
2011-02-24 16:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-02-24 16:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that all there is to the current correction?
2011-02-24 16:58:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is sentiment bearish enough now to reinforce the wall of worry
2011-02-24 16:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2011-02-24 16:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has this stronger than normal trend finished up the work it needs to do to just keep on going?
2011-02-24 16:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-02-24 16:59:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course we can only guess
2011-02-24 16:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but is it something probable?
2011-02-24 16:59:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: possible?
2011-02-24 16:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we always need to be flexible in our convictions
2011-02-24 17:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to always remember that the market will do everything it can to confuse the majority into thinking the actual intentions of the beast
2011-02-24 17:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we break below the 19 day EMA tomorrow
2011-02-24 17:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we have a snapback to look forward to
2011-02-24 17:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could also then open the door that we're likely to see something on the scale of the areas in peach taking place
2011-02-24 17:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would continue to be our blueprint up until the time that the 39 day EMA is actually violated
2011-02-24 17:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once that occurs...then we look to something happening on the scale of those in yellow
2011-02-24 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always one step at a time
2011-02-24 17:02:51 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: What do you think the odds would be for a break of the 19 EMA?
2011-02-24 17:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but always with technical purpose
2011-02-24 17:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know
2011-02-24 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I know is that it's probable that we're going to bounce off the line first before we'll see any kind of effort to move below it
2011-02-24 17:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why do you think this would be the best option?
2011-02-24 17:03:48 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: No, I think we bounce first
2011-02-24 17:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but why?
2011-02-24 17:03:58 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Not even sure we go back down after
2011-02-24 17:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?
2011-02-24 17:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (keep it simple)
2011-02-24 17:04:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: we closed under the 20 on SPX-more work to do
2011-02-24 17:04:28 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: The trend up seems strong and my wave count suggest it
2011-02-24 17:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both of these answers are supplemental
2011-02-24 17:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep it simple
2011-02-24 17:05:01 [Message] tracca -> Chat: High MCSUM levels?
2011-02-24 17:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why would a price pattern have a better chance of bouncing off its short term EMA than not?
2011-02-24 17:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think structure
2011-02-24 17:05:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: support
2011-02-24 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in a way
2011-02-24 17:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the answer is
2011-02-24 17:05:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and always is
2011-02-24 17:05:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what did the pattern being measured do before it moved counter trend?
2011-02-24 17:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did it diverge?
2011-02-24 17:05:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did it make a new high or low?
2011-02-24 17:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was there strength of trend prior to the counter trend?
2011-02-24 17:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are the important questions for any chartist to provide an "expectation"
2011-02-24 17:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the NYAD line moved to new highs prior to the pull back
2011-02-24 17:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds increase substantially that its short term EMA will provide initial support to the pattern
2011-02-24 17:07:10 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: MCSUM also made higher high
2011-02-24 17:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it diverged..then the odds suggest a break down below the 19 day EMA
2011-02-24 17:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, but the MCSUM measures the intermediate trend of the pattern itself
2011-02-24 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's an extension of what is simple
2011-02-24 17:07:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: simple being the raw data
2011-02-24 17:07:50 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: OK
2011-02-24 17:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of a price pattern
2011-02-24 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if a price pattern makes a new closing high before it moves counter trend
2011-02-24 17:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would be the "technical expectation" for downside support?
2011-02-24 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't it be its short term EMA (or SMA)?
2011-02-24 17:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from there...we would bounce
2011-02-24 17:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we don't make a new high off this bounce
2011-02-24 17:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you diverge
2011-02-24 17:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this implies weakness
2011-02-24 17:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and weakness suggest a loss of "support" for the direction of the ongoing trend
2011-02-24 17:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next test after this divergence is usually going to fail
2011-02-24 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the intermediate term EMA is the next level of likely support
2011-02-24 17:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing here
2011-02-24 17:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is basic TA 101 stuff
2011-02-24 17:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what we do here
2011-02-24 17:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we measure the rhythm of patterns
2011-02-24 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the structure
2011-02-24 17:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-02-24 17:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look over the history of the A/D line
2011-02-24 17:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see this happen time after time after time
2011-02-24 17:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when it breaks down and shows a different "character"
2011-02-24 17:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you change your character to match the markets
2011-02-24 17:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: be bullish when its bullish
2011-02-24 17:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: be bearish when its growling
2011-02-24 17:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep it simple
2011-02-24 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why taking something as simple as 3 time periods EMA
2011-02-24 17:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at their relationship with the raw data
2011-02-24 17:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will usually keep you from making emotional mistakes
2011-02-24 17:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's be frank here
2011-02-24 17:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as humans we are emotional creatures
2011-02-24 17:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we hear about things that we either can't control or don't understand we tend to panic
2011-02-24 17:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is where being a technician has its distinct advantages
2011-02-24 17:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know what it's like?
2011-02-24 17:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you hear about a possible war somewhere
2011-02-24 17:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then if you look at that countries stock chart, and it moves in direct opposite of what you're being "pimped" for, which do you believe will be the likely outcome?
2011-02-24 17:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will money win or will emotion??
2011-02-24 17:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we should listen to everything being shown and said
2011-02-24 17:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2011-02-24 17:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must remain neutral when it comes to our taking a position (or not)
2011-02-24 17:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just follow the money
2011-02-24 17:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money will always move in advance of the news
2011-02-24 17:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always
2011-02-24 17:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at 2007
2011-02-24 17:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were in the 4th year of a bull move
2011-02-24 17:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then, all of sudden, those who were telling us that the whole rally was a fantasy turned bullish
2011-02-24 17:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the small traders got in
2011-02-24 17:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I like to say
2011-02-24 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market's job is to not only get all the willing buyers or sellers into committing
2011-02-24 17:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but tops or bottoms only come when the UNWILLING join the party
2011-02-24 17:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: enough philosophy
2011-02-24 17:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's get back to work
2011-02-24 17:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as expected
2011-02-24 17:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCO is showing a small point change today
2011-02-24 17:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's expect a large move in the major market averages in the next two trading days
2011-02-24 17:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe Saudi Arabia will show support for oil? maybe that will trigger a reflex?
2011-02-24 17:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe more?
2011-02-24 17:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it was all so important to know whether Tuesday's kick off was either corrective or a start of a new trend
2011-02-24 17:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sometimes when the prevailing trend is too strong
2011-02-24 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the counter trend has to be just as "strong" just to bring balance "to the force"
2011-02-24 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too early to say if this is the correct idea here
2011-02-24 17:21:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm throwing it out there just so it's something to also consider
2011-02-24 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the start of the MCO bounce is taking place exactly where the last momentum bottom is seen in the MCO about a month ago
2011-02-24 17:22:11 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: How would you label the current correction?
2011-02-24 17:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott wise?
2011-02-24 17:22:29 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Yes
2011-02-24 17:22:42 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I mean is it a 4 in the uptrend?
2011-02-24 17:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...with the volume MCSUM's showing weakness here
2011-02-24 17:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the breadth MCSUM's remain buoyant
2011-02-24 17:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably... "A" of 4
2011-02-24 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I really haven't gone through the charts since Tuesday
2011-02-24 17:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would be best idea based on a quick look see
2011-02-24 17:23:49 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: 2 would be the November correction?
2011-02-24 17:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-02-24 17:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what degree?
2011-02-24 17:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-02-24 17:24:30 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Need to look that up
2011-02-24 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Lew...want to give a degree?
2011-02-24 17:24:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not really, know what I want it to be, LOL
2011-02-24 17:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's how you can increase the odds of your degree of labeling
2011-02-24 17:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-02-24 17:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2011-02-24 17:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the trick
2011-02-24 17:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "Intermediate" degree of trend should always have a momentum tool that would best represent this time period
2011-02-24 17:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since breadth leads price
2011-02-24 17:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM is the tool of choice
2011-02-24 17:26:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-02-24 17:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM has been above its zero line for many months now
2011-02-24 17:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-02-24 17:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been above its zero line since the July lows
2011-02-24 17:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as it remains above the zero line
2011-02-24 17:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern being labeled is, more than likely, of intermediate degree
2011-02-24 17:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sound logical?
2011-02-24 17:27:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: primary 3-there, I said it...
2011-02-24 17:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're going beyond the scope of this instruction
2011-02-24 17:27:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I know
2011-02-24 17:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-02-24 17:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the price structure from the July lows is of intermediate degree
2011-02-24 17:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the smaller degree below that would be of "minor" degree"
2011-02-24 17:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....using the rules and guidelines of Elliott
2011-02-24 17:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can assume that
2011-02-24 17:29:01 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: How about the august correction? Was that part of the primary 2 last summer?
2011-02-24 17:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are in minor wave 4 of Intermediate wave 3 based on the idea that we've been rallying since 3/09
2011-02-24 17:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no
2011-02-24 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be intermediate 2
2011-02-24 17:29:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-02-24 17:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IT 1 to the August highs
2011-02-24 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IT 2 to the August lows
2011-02-24 17:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IT 3 - in progress
2011-02-24 17:30:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: made of Minor 1, 2, 3, and now in 4
2011-02-24 17:30:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-02-24 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that every degree must build on the other
2011-02-24 17:30:53 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Makes sense
2011-02-24 17:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good - then what would be the expectation from here (and this is where it gets exciting)
2011-02-24 17:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep it simple
2011-02-24 17:31:49 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: A flat or triangle
2011-02-24 17:31:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure, kind of hard not to get excited with this slope and force
2011-02-24 17:32:08 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: in the current 4
2011-02-24 17:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ok...so you finish minor 4...then what?
2011-02-24 17:32:29 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: OK, then we move on to 5
2011-02-24 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of minor degree...OK...then what?
2011-02-24 17:32:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: of 3
2011-02-24 17:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-02-24 17:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go on
2011-02-24 17:32:50 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: yes
2011-02-24 17:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we do IT 4
2011-02-24 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then IT 5 to finish the larger structure...that of primary
2011-02-24 17:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now remember a couple of things
2011-02-24 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minor 5 would occur with divergence both in the MCSUM but maybe not so with the A/D line
2011-02-24 17:34:22 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: So no MCSUM breakout?
2011-02-24 17:34:31 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: above April highs?
2011-02-24 17:34:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM is high enough now to where there is the likelihood of another price high before moving below the zero line
2011-02-24 17:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go
2011-02-24 17:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-02-24 17:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can bet
2011-02-24 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that when IT 4 gets going
2011-02-24 17:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volatility will be one degree higher than what we've seen the past two days
2011-02-24 17:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this shake out needs to happen so that wave 5 can begin
2011-02-24 17:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since this IT 5 is probably part of a still larger 3rd wave of Primary degree
2011-02-24 17:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be in that structure where we will move to new all time highs in indexes such as the SPX and Dow
2011-02-24 17:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it must all work together
2011-02-24 17:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things like this must happen to separate "theory" from "principle"
2011-02-24 17:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with all this said
2011-02-24 17:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do NOT lose focus of what is most important
2011-02-24 17:37:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is the flow of money
2011-02-24 17:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott is more of a rear view mirror methodology
2011-02-24 17:37:46 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Primary 1 is from the 2009 low to 2010 April high?
2011-02-24 17:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you should NEVER lead with a count
2011-02-24 17:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-02-24 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is only one idea
2011-02-24 17:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there is substance here to the labeling that tends to be missing from most analysts who do this kind of stuff
2011-02-24 17:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the key to Elliott
2011-02-24 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 3rd wave will ALWAYS show you the best in both breadth and volume
2011-02-24 17:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2011-02-24 17:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will violate areas of significant support or resistance
2011-02-24 17:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the core of the methodology
2011-02-24 17:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2011-02-24 17:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter what time period you look at
2011-02-24 17:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if both of these components are present
2011-02-24 17:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you know exactly where you are in the pattern
2011-02-24 17:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without guessing
2011-02-24 17:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you're wrong, it's only because the underlying trend is stronger than you give it credit for
2011-02-24 17:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of which
2011-02-24 17:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no Holy Grail to use to front this
2011-02-24 17:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry...but that's the truth
2011-02-24 17:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so play with it
2011-02-24 17:41:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have fun with it
2011-02-24 17:41:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if I were you
2011-02-24 17:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would get some 10 square graph paper, and a number 2 pencil, and get "intimate" with your charting
2011-02-24 17:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really the only way to learn and appreciate the rhythm factor that is so important in this
2011-02-24 17:42:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: couldn't agree more
2011-02-24 17:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there isn't a piece of software out there that can do what you, as a human, can do on your own
2011-02-24 17:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why...I don't waste my time using software programs of any kind
2011-02-24 17:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the school of hard knocks
2011-02-24 17:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you learn by doing...not by copying the paper next to you
2011-02-24 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-02-24 17:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2011-02-24 17:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note that on the NASDAQ breadth MCO components that we have now met the minimal expectation of a simple correction
2011-02-24 17:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both of the EMA's are below their zero line
2011-02-24 17:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the difference here
2011-02-24 17:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we didn't see a bounce in the 10% Trend first before moving to lower lows
2011-02-24 17:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2011-02-24 17:45:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation would be for a longer period of backing and filling to provide "texture" to the pattern
2011-02-24 17:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2011-02-24 17:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would make better sense, with all things being equal, that we're going to need more time for the price patterns to finish off the last two days worth of selling
2011-02-24 17:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to expect anything else isn't reasonable (plus it would compliment an Elliott 4th wave)
2011-02-24 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market has its own ideas, however, we don't fight that either
2011-02-24 17:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...we're dealing only in probability to outcome ratios
2011-02-24 17:47:25 [Message] manuj -> Chat: can you please clarify last few statements?
2011-02-24 17:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2011-02-24 17:47:37 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: sorry fib, was kicked off for a minute. What was the expectation?
2011-02-24 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were talking about the NASDAQ breadth MCO's 10% component not being able to find snapback support to its zero line, and while the 5% component is now also below its zero line, the expectation would NOT be for a finishing of the correction but more of an extension
2011-02-24 17:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remembering back to about an hour ago
2011-02-24 17:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we were discussing how the market objective in extended trends was to find parity
2011-02-24 17:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this parity, as it applies to the components, would be for the 10% index to bounce or snapback to its zero line
2011-02-24 17:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: move below the zero or extend this direction
2011-02-24 17:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bring the 5% to the zero line
2011-02-24 17:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have it bounce
2011-02-24 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then have it move down and through the zero line to finish off the correction
2011-02-24 17:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ components here
2011-02-24 17:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did NOT find support at the zero line on the 10%
2011-02-24 17:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even though the 5% is below its zero line now
2011-02-24 17:51:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that we're done...make sense Manuj?
2011-02-24 17:51:38 [Message] manuj -> Chat: so in plain English - the market may fall further as per NAZ MCO?
2011-02-24 17:51:49 [Message] manuj -> Chat: yeah i just want to make sure i am interpreting it correctly
2011-02-24 17:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not necessarily
2011-02-24 17:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price is not part of this equation directly
2011-02-24 17:52:14 [Message] manuj -> Chat: gotcha
2011-02-24 17:52:32 [Message] manuj -> Chat: but the point you are making is the components should have snapped back to kiss 0 line
2011-02-24 17:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is more of whether there's enough energy to possibly promote a direction change in price
2011-02-24 17:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-02-24 17:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also keep in mind
2011-02-24 17:52:55 [Message] manuj -> Chat: since they did not - there is more on the agenda which favors illiquidity
2011-02-24 17:53:02 [Message] manuj -> Chat: i.e. negative breadth
2011-02-24 17:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that each market beats to its own drummer
2011-02-24 17:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...not illiquidity
2011-02-24 17:53:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because the NAAD line is only in a "corrective bullish configuration"
2011-02-24 17:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being illiquid would only come if the TREND of the raw data was showing a downward bias
2011-02-24 17:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so liquidity is NOT the problem here
2011-02-24 17:54:16 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok i think i know what you mean :-)
2011-02-24 17:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend of liquidity
2011-02-24 17:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is softening
2011-02-24 17:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like
2011-02-24 17:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's say you have decided that every month you were going to put in a set amount of money into a savings account
2011-02-24 17:54:59 [Message] manuj -> Chat: things look more bleak rather than rosy...is that correct?
2011-02-24 17:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for the last several months you were able to increase this cash flow
2011-02-24 17:55:19 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok
2011-02-24 17:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to a point that NOW you have so slow down this same accelerated cash flow
2011-02-24 17:55:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which may be only bring you back to your original goal
2011-02-24 17:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're still providing liquidity
2011-02-24 17:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at a slower pace
2011-02-24 17:56:09 [Message] manuj -> Chat: got it
2011-02-24 17:56:12 [Message] manuj -> Chat: thanks a lot
2011-02-24 17:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you start taking out the money....then you're being illiquid
2011-02-24 17:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the context is always important
2011-02-24 17:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember
2011-02-24 17:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we watch weighted indexes
2011-02-24 17:56:59 [Message] manuj -> Chat: so how will you explain the components not snapping back in this analogy of savings account
2011-02-24 17:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because either A) you stopped putting money in or B ) you had an emergency and took out some cash
2011-02-24 17:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your trend didn't change
2011-02-24 17:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but something came up to change up your pattern
2011-02-24 17:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...if the emergency gets worse
2011-02-24 17:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or if you can't afford to keep adding to your savings
2011-02-24 17:58:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you either start "draining" your account
2011-02-24 17:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or
2011-02-24 17:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you allow the account to move sideways
2011-02-24 17:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-02-24 17:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-02-24 17:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the A/D line gives us an idea of how much money the market has available for investment IF it decides it wants to use it
2011-02-24 17:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't say that it WILL invest
2011-02-24 17:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only that it's there TO invest
2011-02-24 18:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the line is rising
2011-02-24 18:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this suggests that there will be demand to overtake any supply that's out there
2011-02-24 18:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the only way prices move up
2011-02-24 18:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take that away...and prices sink
2011-02-24 18:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...it's 6:00
2011-02-24 18:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...let me run through the rest of the data
2011-02-24 18:01:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry for the tangents this evening...but I hope you've found them useful
2011-02-24 18:01:49 [Message] manuj -> Chat: yes for sure. thanks
2011-02-24 18:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of small point changes
2011-02-24 18:02:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had some mid range closes today on the price charts
2011-02-24 18:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and some inside range days as well
2011-02-24 18:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the odds of a higher close on Friday is more than 50%
2011-02-24 18:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the small point changes taking place in and around the -50 level
2011-02-24 18:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we haven't as yet snapback to or towards the MCO zero lines
2011-02-24 18:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then increases the likelihood of a reflex rally on Friday to about 75%
2011-02-24 18:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NDX CVI moved to "climactic" yesterday
2011-02-24 18:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're 2 trading days away from a reversal
2011-02-24 18:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other CVI's are telling us pretty much the same thing without the all out trigger
2011-02-24 18:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now neutral...so one side is about to take control
2011-02-24 18:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are starting to lose their "strongly trending" forecast
2011-02-24 18:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.58
2011-02-24 18:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 1.19
2011-02-24 18:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: highly "oversold"
2011-02-24 18:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .76
2011-02-24 18:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.11
2011-02-24 18:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2011-02-24 18:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .96
2011-02-24 18:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.16
2011-02-24 18:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-02-24 18:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: time for a reflex rally
2011-02-24 18:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it probably will extend into early next week
2011-02-24 18:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then maybe a retest period into the jobs numbers
2011-02-24 18:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from there...the month of March still looks like a good month for the bulls
2011-02-24 18:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the early April period as out possible topping period
2011-02-24 18:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless...
2011-02-24 18:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-02-24 18:09:56 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Thanks a lot, Fib. The Elliot stuff really helped me
2011-02-24 18:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good...did you need the link again for the tutorial?
2011-02-24 18:10:23 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: If you have it at hand
2011-02-24 18:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: won't copy and paste
2011-02-24 18:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go to the message boards
2011-02-24 18:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: under the Elliott Wave area
2011-02-24 18:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the first post at the top
2011-02-24 18:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Tonny
2011-02-24 18:11:40 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: OK. Thanks
2011-02-24 18:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do not use Elliott emotionally
2011-02-24 18:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you MUST leave any biases at the door
2011-02-24 18:11:59 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: What do you mean?
2011-02-24 18:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very important
2011-02-24 18:12:04 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: OK
2011-02-24 18:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can NOT measure mass psychology if you already have an opinion
2011-02-24 18:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THAT is where the majority fail
2011-02-24 18:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you MUST let the market tell you what it thinks
2011-02-24 18:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will take a couple of years before you "get it"
2011-02-24 18:13:08 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I believe I should be flat when I do the wave analysis then
2011-02-24 18:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only a way to label a chart
2011-02-24 18:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is NOT your leading guide
2011-02-24 18:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will only compliment the driving forces that make prices go
2011-02-24 18:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that
2011-02-24 18:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm outta here
2011-02-24 18:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-02-24 18:14:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: excellent chat
2011-02-24 18:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Tuesday
2011-02-24 18:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-02-24 18:14:56 [Message] lard -> Chat: awesome chat, thanks Fib

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