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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,726
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-02-22 16:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-02-22 16:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-02-22 16:00:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great thanks, and you?
2011-02-22 16:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: terrific!
2011-02-22 16:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: couldn't be better!
2011-02-22 16:01:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, you do have that iphone LOL
2011-02-22 16:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I could be better if I were 30 years younger...but that's another story!
2011-02-22 16:01:50 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-02-22 16:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it actually is a great little tool
2011-02-22 16:02:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: fantastic, really
2011-02-22 16:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but from what I'm seeing...droid and other OS's are good too
2011-02-22 16:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can do so many things
2011-02-22 16:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key is the right "app"
2011-02-22 16:02:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: lots of my traders trade on their droids
2011-02-22 16:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can take the phone and bar code a product and there's an app to tell who has it at the cheapest price!
2011-02-22 16:02:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: too cool
2011-02-22 16:03:01 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: wow
2011-02-22 16:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can take a picture of a place and Google will recognize it and tell me what it is
2011-02-22 16:03:13 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: got a have that app
2011-02-22 16:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it is
2011-02-22 16:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best restaurants near it
2011-02-22 16:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hotels
2011-02-22 16:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gas stations
2011-02-22 16:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it really is amazing
2011-02-22 16:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bar code one?
2011-02-22 16:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the best thing
2011-02-22 16:04:05 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: yes, what is it called?
2011-02-22 16:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the majority of these apps are free
2011-02-22 16:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2011-02-22 16:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I don't know if...well it should work there too...one sec
2011-02-22 16:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's called "Scandit"
2011-02-22 16:04:52 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I can use it to bargain prices here
2011-02-22 16:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do a search of it
2011-02-22 16:04:55 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-02-22 16:04:58 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Thanks
2011-02-22 16:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: play with it
2011-02-22 16:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't do food
2011-02-22 16:05:11 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: No prob
2011-02-22 16:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's the only thing it doesn't do
2011-02-22 16:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus it doesn't do ummm...in house products
2011-02-22 16:05:52 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: makes sense
2011-02-22 16:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like....ummm...it probably wouldn't give you anything for a IKEA product
2011-02-22 16:06:10 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I see
2011-02-22 16:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since it's free...give it a shot
2011-02-22 16:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if it doesn't work...delete
2011-02-22 16:06:26 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I will. Sounds cool
2011-02-22 16:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-02-22 16:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest...I think I've only scratched the surface for this new technology
2011-02-22 16:07:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the real test will be when I hit the road next month
2011-02-22 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...what did the market do today?
2011-02-22 16:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything exciting?
2011-02-22 16:07:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: down 178
2011-02-22 16:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no
2011-02-22 16:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really?
2011-02-22 16:07:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-02-22 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the hey!
2011-02-22 16:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was that supposed to happen?
2011-02-22 16:08:05 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: Yes!
2011-02-22 16:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I thought we were supposed to just keep going higher and higher?
2011-02-22 16:08:07 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-02-22 16:08:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-02-22 16:08:16 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat:
2011-02-22 16:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how are the bears?
2011-02-22 16:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are they all excited?
2011-02-22 16:08:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: exiting fast
2011-02-22 16:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chomping at the bit?
2011-02-22 16:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: calling tops?
2011-02-22 16:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: crashes?
2011-02-22 16:09:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: some
2011-02-22 16:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all this "worry"
2011-02-22 16:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: worry worry worry
2011-02-22 16:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what to do?
2011-02-22 16:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-02-22 16:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before that
2011-02-22 16:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take another look at the combo chart
2011-02-22 16:10:04 [Message] Pricewatcher -> Chat: I think we had a clue Friday with the small point change and the high OEX put call
2011-02-22 16:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had all sorts of small point changes in the MCO's on Friday
2011-02-22 16:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even before that
2011-02-22 16:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market was antsy
2011-02-22 16:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/nyad022211.png
2011-02-22 16:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first thing that we note is the "last line of defense" for the bears on the MCO
2011-02-22 16:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we still haven't been able to move above this key level
2011-02-22 16:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have been talking about for some time now
2011-02-22 16:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we see a breakout above this level, we only have enough to work with to maybe the beginning of April period
2011-02-22 16:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...once again, the bear defense held
2011-02-22 16:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYAD line itself
2011-02-22 16:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see that we still have a comfortable amount of room between where the current reading is and the 19 day EMA just below it
2011-02-22 16:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that since the November lows
2011-02-22 16:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this same 10% Trend (line) has been keeping a nice bit of support for the A/D line itself since that time
2011-02-22 16:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the bears are going to try to mount a counter attack (if you will)
2011-02-22 16:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will first need to get breadth of market below this short term trend line of support
2011-02-22 16:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise, we are "entitled" to show a pause in an accelerated trend
2011-02-22 16:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the faster we get there...the better for the trend itself
2011-02-22 16:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as quick and sharp counter trend moves create quick and sharp emotional responses
2011-02-22 16:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case...accelerated selling during strongly trending markets create quick responses to where the trend can once again gain new strength to continue the move in this same direction
2011-02-22 16:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...as a bull
2011-02-22 16:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would want to see one more day of sell off, and from where we'll see an end to the correctional process
2011-02-22 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you remember
2011-02-22 16:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what happened in late January
2011-02-22 16:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market was then able to go about its business
2011-02-22 16:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCSUM
2011-02-22 16:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note that we did move above our gap resistance zone on Friday
2011-02-22 16:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could this area now becomes our zone of support
2011-02-22 16:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first as a snapback point which was met today
2011-02-22 16:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then for any further near term weakness towards the bottom of the zone
2011-02-22 16:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this doesn't hold
2011-02-22 16:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last area of support comes with the rising bottoms line
2011-02-22 16:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which we all know held the pattern intact at the end of January
2011-02-22 16:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking back up at the MCO
2011-02-22 16:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that it did break trend support today
2011-02-22 16:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the likelihood will be for a snapback to or towards both this same line, and the zero line itself, in the next day or so
2011-02-22 16:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...if you feel like you've been blindsided...in a way you have
2011-02-22 16:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it has purpose
2011-02-22 16:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every so often the market needs to "shake the tree" of those of weak hands in order to continue to climb the wall of worry created by the structure itself
2011-02-22 16:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus...it gives the bears something to finally talk about
2011-02-22 16:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is only fair
2011-02-22 16:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what will be important in this area
2011-02-22 16:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to see how willing they are to accept that this might be another fake out to a new trend developing to the downside or not
2011-02-22 16:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they embrace this as a kick off...then the rising structure may not be as mature as we might think
2011-02-22 16:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is then the case, this then increases the odds that we're likely to rally until late spring
2011-02-22 16:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not...then early April remains the new and effective time period
2011-02-22 16:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one really knows in this business if you really take a neutral view of things
2011-02-22 16:28:10 [Message] manuj -> Chat: so either April or late spring. but what you are saying is the price still is going up. right?
2011-02-22 16:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the key here is to know what should occur, and if it doesn't (or does), this then reinforces the markets viewpoint
2011-02-22 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully our bottom line as well, and yes, the trend remains higher
2011-02-22 16:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...now that we got the essence of today out of the way
2011-02-22 16:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's dig a bit deeper and see if we have any technical breakdowns that would go against our initial analysis
2011-02-22 16:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to a slightly higher high on Friday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO showed a hard reversal to the downside today
2011-02-22 16:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now back below its zero line
2011-02-22 16:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving our line of vision to the components that make up this MCO
2011-02-22 16:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we note that we did get a crossover sell on between the two trends
2011-02-22 16:30:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we are still well above the zero line for both
2011-02-22 16:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have noted in the past when this happens
2011-02-22 16:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this instructs us that we are in a correction
2011-02-22 16:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so from this we know one very important thing
2011-02-22 16:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's decline was NOT the start of a reversal in the current trend
2011-02-22 16:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a simple correction
2011-02-22 16:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and correction that was fully based on the news of the day
2011-02-22 16:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the technical area
2011-02-22 16:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do note that today's move below the zero line in the MCO occurred just as the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM was about to clear above the all important November highs
2011-02-22 16:34:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so on an intermediate term basis, this is important to note only in addressing the when the current up trend is likely to find a stopping point
2011-02-22 16:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that it's been the objective to move above this same November high to extend the advancing price structure past the April period
2011-02-22 16:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we don't see these highs again, this then increases the odds the April will be all she wrote as far as the structure from the August 2010 lows
2011-02-22 16:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is fine and dandy
2011-02-22 16:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it wouldn't be healthy for the market to just "keep going"
2011-02-22 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're putting the cart before the horse here..let's move on
2011-02-22 16:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of situation with the composite NYSE data
2011-02-22 16:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYSE breadth MCO below its zero line, and the components suggesting this to be a simple correction
2011-02-22 16:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the NYSE breadth MCSUM itself
2011-02-22 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first support below us will be at the +750 level
2011-02-22 16:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after not being able to move above its January highs
2011-02-22 16:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO moved sharply below its zero line today
2011-02-22 16:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this pushed the 10% component below its zero line as well
2011-02-22 16:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical expectation here would be for a bounce as soon as tomorrow
2011-02-22 16:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to provide a snapback back up to both zero lines
2011-02-22 16:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the degree of decline today
2011-02-22 16:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that breadth was on the climactic side
2011-02-22 16:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might not be able to start this snapback until Thursday
2011-02-22 16:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the Open 10 should give us some insight into this later on
2011-02-22 16:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth data is pretty in sync with the NYSE composite data
2011-02-22 16:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both with the MCO, its components, and the MCSUM
2011-02-22 16:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is now showing a divergent top from Friday's close
2011-02-22 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we will need to move below the late January lows for any kind of kick off
2011-02-22 16:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any ultimate support to the current pullback should come in around the 1290 level
2011-02-22 16:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the important thing here being
2011-02-22 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with the SPX breadth MCSUM having a reading of +1050
2011-02-22 16:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to be extremely difficult for the bears to create any kind of trend to the downside at the current time
2011-02-22 16:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the very best they can do right now
2011-02-22 16:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be for a sideways consolidation
2011-02-22 16:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's too early to know if this is what's going to take place
2011-02-22 16:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be we back and fill again in the morning...and then reverse again as has been the case now for the last 8 months
2011-02-22 16:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO moved slightly below its zero line today
2011-02-22 16:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX breadth MCSUM finding resistance near the +1000 level...now with a reading of +998
2011-02-22 16:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking also at the close up price charts of the SPX and OEX
2011-02-22 16:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that we are right now at our first area of price pattern support
2011-02-22 16:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, at the very least, we should see Wednesday as a day of trying to hold the line
2011-02-22 16:47:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I have a nice trendline at 1301, fwiw
2011-02-22 16:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: works for me
2011-02-22 16:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intraday
2011-02-22 16:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to remember
2011-02-22 16:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get shake outs like this
2011-02-22 16:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the majority don't hear about what happened in the market until the 6:00 news
2011-02-22 16:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....you come home
2011-02-22 16:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: find out about Libya and the middle east
2011-02-22 16:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that oil prices went up 9%
2011-02-22 16:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the market was down 2%
2011-02-22 16:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you're probably going to try to get out at the open
2011-02-22 16:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the media loves to pimp up bad news
2011-02-22 16:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...it wouldn't surprise me to see a hard down open tomorrow
2011-02-22 16:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact...I would prefer it
2011-02-22 16:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that way I know that the shake out is about complete
2011-02-22 16:50:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto!
2011-02-22 16:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's not forget what's truly important here
2011-02-22 16:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the market, for whatever may ail it, it won't be because there isn't enough liquidity in the system
2011-02-22 16:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: emotional, news driven events aside, days like this are healthy to keep things from getting too frothy
2011-02-22 16:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the pool is filled with enough water
2011-02-22 16:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the basket ball is released, it's very likely that we're going to see much of any decline taken back in quick order
2011-02-22 16:52:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm dying to buy 1301-say a prayer for me
2011-02-22 16:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-02-22 16:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a couple of "our fathers" might do it?
2011-02-22 16:53:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sounds good
2011-02-22 16:53:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: break out the rosary!
2011-02-22 16:53:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I may
2011-02-22 16:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll be fine
2011-02-22 16:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest
2011-02-22 16:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you don't get your wish
2011-02-22 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to look for evidence that the pull back is behind us so you can follow its lead
2011-02-22 16:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not the time to "get cute"
2011-02-22 16:54:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: will do!
2011-02-22 16:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our blueprint remains
2011-02-22 16:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our discipline even more so
2011-02-22 16:54:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm done with front running cute
2011-02-22 16:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after enough bruises...most are
2011-02-22 16:55:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but, an open near my buy # would enable me....
2011-02-22 16:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the conditions warrant it...go for it
2011-02-22 16:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if momentum starts to wane...etc
2011-02-22 16:55:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we really know for now is
2011-02-22 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO below zero...with the components remaining above theirs
2011-02-22 16:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only is it correctional but it will be choppy as well
2011-02-22 16:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of sticking your arm in a full bathtub and sloshing the water back and forth
2011-02-22 16:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the water level remains high
2011-02-22 16:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might spill over a bit
2011-02-22 16:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once it moves to one side
2011-02-22 16:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we usually get an equal and opposite move to the other side
2011-02-22 16:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we calm down
2011-02-22 16:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the best visualization I can give you
2011-02-22 16:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also moved slightly below its zero line today
2011-02-22 16:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce higher off this area should be the near term expectation based more on the strength of pattern that came before than anything else
2011-02-22 16:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is where you can actually see how the market is out of sync here
2011-02-22 16:59:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as unlike the MID breadth MCO as it was able to move to a higher high last week
2011-02-22 16:59:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO was not able to
2011-02-22 17:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're out of sync here as well
2011-02-22 17:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this also produces choppy market behavior
2011-02-22 17:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for both sides
2011-02-22 17:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears are looking for a rally to short
2011-02-22 17:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bulls are looking for further declines to "buy the dip"
2011-02-22 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both, unfortunately, unless they have patience, will likely get frustrated under such conditions
2011-02-22 17:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for traders...we're on a hold with a bullish bias
2011-02-22 17:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing says sell as yet
2011-02-22 17:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this shouldn't stop you from performing good trading habits in the way of stops
2011-02-22 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at this point
2011-02-22 17:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most of the bulls have such a nice cushion that they can afford to be liberal in their stops as well
2011-02-22 17:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears...well, they don't such a luxury at this time
2011-02-22 17:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain in control of the intermediate term picture
2011-02-22 17:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will continue to be in control for several more weeks
2011-02-22 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for even if the MCSUM's have topped out here
2011-02-22 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have seen so many times before
2011-02-22 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't mean that prices have finished their work in this same direction
2011-02-22 17:04:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: this move looks very ABC to me
2011-02-22 17:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's going to take a lot of time to just to get better balance near the MCSUM zero line for the bears to even have a chance of creating a trend to the downside
2011-02-22 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was looking at the 5 minute bar today
2011-02-22 17:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to my eye I see 5 down complete at around 15:30
2011-02-22 17:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't remember exactly...let me check again
2011-02-22 17:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...15:30
2011-02-22 17:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice and clean
2011-02-22 17:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...if this was wave c of an irregular flat...we're done
2011-02-22 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if a zig zag...B up tomorrow...C down into the end of the week
2011-02-22 17:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't really know
2011-02-22 17:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be candid
2011-02-22 17:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't really care
2011-02-22 17:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I want to see is performance
2011-02-22 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to see if there's any change in the rhythm of the daily pattern
2011-02-22 17:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day wonders don't tell us much unless breadth of market had been leading to this same wonder
2011-02-22 17:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how it goes on Wednesday
2011-02-22 17:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the idea of whether we'll see a rally attempt tomorrow or not
2011-02-22 17:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the same kind of situation with the TM breadth data
2011-02-22 17:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, overall, it was a nice (surprising) day for the bears
2011-02-22 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were begging for a "finally" pull back and they got their wish
2011-02-22 17:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now it's up to traders on how they handle a news related shake out like this
2011-02-22 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that had additional pent up demand with the Monday holiday to go with it
2011-02-22 17:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things kinda looked OK up until Europe closed
2011-02-22 17:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we just fell apart
2011-02-22 17:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking a quick look at the volume McClellan's
2011-02-22 17:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see near term resistance at the +750 level on the CO NYSE volume MCSUM coming into play here
2011-02-22 17:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +1000 level with the NYSE volume MCSUM
2011-02-22 17:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we noted last week
2011-02-22 17:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see by the close postings of these MCSUM's that the bulls were having their problems even before today took place
2011-02-22 17:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even more so with the horizontal ledge pattern on the NASDAQ volume McSUM
2011-02-22 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO and its components there suggest a bounce higher tomorrow too
2011-02-22 17:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...now we have something to keep our interest
2011-02-22 17:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX volume MCO
2011-02-22 17:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see here that we show a definitive break to the downside
2011-02-22 17:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and getting pretty close to being minimally "oversold" with a -45 reading
2011-02-22 17:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice gap down on the price pattern
2011-02-22 17:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a small island top to boot
2011-02-22 17:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2011-02-22 17:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls will need to see a quick fill of today's downside gap in order to have the energy to move to new highs later on
2011-02-22 17:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any lack of filling this gap, and we'll classify it as a breakaway gap to the downside
2011-02-22 17:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which minimally means
2011-02-22 17:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to consolidate for a couple of weeks
2011-02-22 17:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the worse being
2011-02-22 17:17:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we'll see a multi week correction that will be more in the way of price than it will be with time
2011-02-22 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term, however, we should see a bounce attempt to begin as soon as tomorrow
2011-02-22 17:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll need to watch to see if there's any takers
2011-02-22 17:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...lots of down volume today...should be high TRIN numbers coming up
2011-02-22 17:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCSUM is also finding it tough going above its +750 level
2011-02-22 17:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SPX volume components suggesting a bounce as soon as tomorrow as well
2011-02-22 17:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2011-02-22 17:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that when we talk about bounces and such
2011-02-22 17:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this means by the close
2011-02-22 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intraday anything can happen
2011-02-22 17:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but our focus here, since these are daily closing numbers, is the expectation of what we're left with when all is said and done
2011-02-22 17:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX volume MCSUM
2011-02-22 17:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see a break below support took place today
2011-02-22 17:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the +250 level being our first objective
2011-02-22 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again, volume might be suggesting that we might be in for a high level consolidation of some kind now
2011-02-22 17:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a slight break to the downside on the Dow volume MCSUM
2011-02-22 17:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether the bears can put some muscle into this or not remains the near term question
2011-02-22 17:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCO moved below its zero line today
2011-02-22 17:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a small divergent top left behind
2011-02-22 17:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume MCO is also showing divergence here
2011-02-22 17:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SML volume MCSUM finding resistance at the mid January highs of +1000
2011-02-22 17:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a divergent top with the TM volume MCO
2011-02-22 17:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which we'll need to get below the January lows to trigger the pattern
2011-02-22 17:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-02-22 17:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although breadth of market remains buoyant here
2011-02-22 17:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume side of things is showing enough weakness where a high level consolidation price pattern would be the best expectation at this moment
2011-02-22 17:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can take the form of either a horizontal pattern or a triangle
2011-02-22 17:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day doesn't give us enough to figure this out as yet
2011-02-22 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it does give us enough to know that the bulls will have to reverse things quickly here, or the next couple of weeks will be choppy
2011-02-22 17:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2011-02-22 17:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's fell off the table
2011-02-22 17:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NDX CVI close to showing climactic activity
2011-02-22 17:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's have now aired out their "overbought" conditions
2011-02-22 17:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the exception of the Dow
2011-02-22 17:32:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the VTO's continue to suggest that we're in a strong uptrend
2011-02-22 17:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow VTO is starting to show some breakdown in its pattern
2011-02-22 17:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know how important that is since we're only dealing with 30 stocks there...but we'll watch it
2011-02-22 17:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.36
2011-02-22 17:33:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of disappointing there
2011-02-22 17:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the Open 10 is now "oversold" at 1.10
2011-02-22 17:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 3.26
2011-02-22 17:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a feeling it was going to be high based on the volume MCO data
2011-02-22 17:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.07
2011-02-22 17:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally "oversold" but it can do a bit more
2011-02-22 17:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 2.27
2011-02-22 17:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.11
2011-02-22 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2011-02-22 17:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we're in strong trending sequences
2011-02-22 17:35:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything over 2.00 is usually a capitulation point
2011-02-22 17:35:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-02-22 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intermediate term...
2011-02-22 17:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls continue to control the action
2011-02-22 17:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short term is now questionable
2011-02-22 17:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll have to see how we respond over the next couple of days to know for sure
2011-02-22 17:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at this point
2011-02-22 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be pretty high odds that we're going to chop around for a week or two
2011-02-22 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no help with the options data
2011-02-22 17:37:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too far to fast to react
2011-02-22 17:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the volatility index' are above the upper band of their 20 day Bollinger Bands
2011-02-22 17:38:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's climatic behavior
2011-02-22 17:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be looking then for a soft opening...and then we should find our legs and attempt to rally
2011-02-22 17:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2011-02-22 17:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with everyone looking at the middle east for their trading decisions right now, who really knows since emotion is something that can never be "measured"
2011-02-22 17:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...by the way
2011-02-22 17:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the gold pattern predicted this final move up in oil
2011-02-22 17:41:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we never know how or why
2011-02-22 17:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but these patterns are consistent enough to give us a plan to work from
2011-02-22 17:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else I haven't touched on that you want to discuss?
2011-02-22 17:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of the precious metals
2011-02-22 17:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would stay away until we start to see a better relationship with the PM stocks A/D lines
2011-02-22 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the silver stocks are just racing here
2011-02-22 17:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the golds are not
2011-02-22 17:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is not a good sign for the sector
2011-02-22 17:44:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the ratio is approaching the level in the 80's
2011-02-22 17:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: haven't looked in a while...give me a moment
2011-02-22 17:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...CEF is up to 21 now
2011-02-22 17:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...amazing
2011-02-22 17:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what the premium is
2011-02-22 17:45:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-02-22 17:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only 8
2011-02-22 17:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not showing any kind of froth there
2011-02-22 17:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually we have to see readings above 15% before we see a top
2011-02-22 17:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold:silver ratio testing the highs of 1998 levels now
2011-02-22 17:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still a long way away from the peak in 1983
2011-02-22 17:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but getting there
2011-02-22 17:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher gold goes
2011-02-22 17:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "poor man's gold" gets bought that much more
2011-02-22 17:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...I'm staying away
2011-02-22 17:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have my tried and true position in SLW
2011-02-22 17:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's about it
2011-02-22 17:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-02-22 17:50:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great session, thx
2011-02-22 17:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing here is....
2011-02-22 17:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just need to take a deep breath on days like this
2011-02-22 17:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember that during bull market phases
2011-02-22 17:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we KNOW that corrections are going to be sharp and short to not only maintain structure but to keep the majority on the sidelines
2011-02-22 17:51:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whenever we get moves like this that are unsubstantiated by a lack of liquidity
2011-02-22 17:52:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that we're just going to turn on a dime and move in another direction
2011-02-22 17:52:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is like a cruise ship
2011-02-22 17:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has to take its time reversing course
2011-02-22 17:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the current configurations
2011-02-22 17:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if we have topped
2011-02-22 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will have plenty of time to close longs and move to short if need be
2011-02-22 17:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it's only one day
2011-02-22 17:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes tomorrow
2011-02-22 17:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (and watch...on Thursday all of this will be something to smile at, yet again)
2011-02-22 17:54:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-02-22 17:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-02-22 17:54:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a good couple of days
2011-02-22 17:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Thursday
2011-02-22 17:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night


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