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Posts: 5,028
Reply with quote  #1 
2012-02-21 16:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-02-21 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-02-21 16:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-02-21 16:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will assume that everyone is away from their computers
2012-02-21 16:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I'll get started...
2012-02-21 16:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just looked at AAPL...closed at all time highs today...right at the highs of the day
2012-02-21 16:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2012-02-21 16:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after snapping back to its zero line on Friday
2012-02-21 16:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved lower today
2012-02-21 16:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this move lower has allowed the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM to move to the downside
2012-02-21 16:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, for the bulls, they need to suck it up NOW and come back with a flourish
2012-02-21 16:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we're likely going to stay below this MCO zero line for at least a couple of weeks
2012-02-21 16:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2012-02-21 16:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a test of the 8000 level on the NYA should then be expected
2012-02-21 16:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another negative posting tomorrow on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-02-21 16:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will then allow this pattern to move to the +750 level without too much of a problem
2012-02-21 16:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the rising bottoms line on the CO MCSUM coming in well below current levels at around the +200 level
2012-02-21 16:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2012-02-21 16:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain more corrective than trending at this time
2012-02-21 16:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2012-02-21 16:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYSE breadth MCSUM now 19 data points away from possibly finding natural support at the +1250 level
2012-02-21 16:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the NYA price pattern
2012-02-21 16:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see the choppy nature of the last couple of days forecasted by the inconsistencies of the MCO and its components
2012-02-21 16:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today giving us another test of what was resistance prior to Friday's break to the upside
2012-02-21 16:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too, the components say correction
2012-02-21 16:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bulls do need to show some near term strength or we're likely to be stuck chopping around for a week or two
2012-02-21 16:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line resistance as well on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-02-21 16:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with an outside range day on the daily price chart
2012-02-21 16:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO did break to lower lows today
2012-02-21 16:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have a well defined rounding top pattern on the NDX breadth MCSUM working
2012-02-21 16:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the current MCSUM readings the fourth highest in 3 years
2012-02-21 16:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we might have a little too much resistance to over come
2012-02-21 16:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a short term pause to refresh is now in order
2012-02-21 16:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: within the larger context of a correction per the position of the 10% and 5% components
2012-02-21 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also moved back below its zero line today
2012-02-21 16:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is leaving behind a possible double top pattern on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2012-02-21 16:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2012-02-21 16:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important that they at least maintain their control over the near term
2012-02-21 16:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would keep the MCSUM moving net sideways just below this important +1000 level
2012-02-21 16:19:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, on the other hand, the sellers can start to pick up the pace here
2012-02-21 16:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would leave behind a second attempt to provide enough energy to move above this same "overbought" overhead resistance level seen on the chart with a failure to do so
2012-02-21 16:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with tops beneath tops continuing to control the SPX breadth MCO pattern
2012-02-21 16:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike last week
2012-02-21 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where any surprises would tend to be to the upside
2012-02-21 16:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have to be prepared for a possible downside surprise
2012-02-21 16:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since our MCSUM time target of mid February was met precisely last week
2012-02-21 16:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there has yet to be any new time targets moving out from the current period
2012-02-21 16:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small snapback to the zero line today on the OEX breadth MCO
2012-02-21 16:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is still about to take control here for the near term (that of days)
2012-02-21 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break to lower MCO lows on the breadth OEX
2012-02-21 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would also trigger a bearish divergence pattern on the OEX breadth MCSUM
2012-02-21 16:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's not something the bulls would want to see for the short term as it would tend to stunt the upside action of the price index itself
2012-02-21 16:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did see good strength today in the Dow breadth MCO
2012-02-21 16:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it took out its early February highs today
2012-02-21 16:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something in which we thought might happen last week
2012-02-21 16:25:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2012-02-21 16:25:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the broader market is showing some indigestion here
2012-02-21 16:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have to be careful if today's higher high in the Dow breadth MCO isn't some sort of blow off type action before we have a more broadly based and multi week pause in the current uptrend
2012-02-21 16:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also saw zero line resistance on the MID breadth MCO
2012-02-21 16:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like all of the MCO's (aside from the NDX)
2012-02-21 16:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain above last weeks lows at this time
2012-02-21 16:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have the MID breadth MCSUM now at one of the 250 multiple support at just above the +1000 level (+1014)
2012-02-21 16:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless the sellers step up here
2012-02-21 16:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see some buying come in here by the close tomorrow
2012-02-21 16:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's up to the bears now to show their conviction here
2012-02-21 16:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they have several things they can point to as a negative
2012-02-21 16:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like fading a resolution on the Greece situation
2012-02-21 16:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or that the US and Israel setting their sites on Iran (as but two examples)
2012-02-21 16:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO remains the weak sister here
2012-02-21 16:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how this weakness translates by looking at the SML price action
2012-02-21 16:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which showed the best amount of price decay today of any index we cover
2012-02-21 16:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the SML MCO components still above their zero line
2012-02-21 16:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that the price pattern is consolidating
2012-02-21 16:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the likely outcome of a triangle being traced out
2012-02-21 16:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the Elliottician's out there
2012-02-21 16:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like wave B has in wave C down
2012-02-21 16:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern is also going through its obligation of snapping back to the old all time highs that were broken to the upside a little over 2 weeks ago
2012-02-21 16:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and some zero line resistance as well on the TM breadth MCO with the MCO components still well above their zero line
2012-02-21 16:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we continue to see corrective activity overall..not too different from last Thursday
2012-02-21 16:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on to the sectors
2012-02-21 16:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line resistance as well with the XLY breadth MCO
2012-02-21 16:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our not being able to move above this line of neutrality
2012-02-21 16:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had what looks like a rally failure bar today
2012-02-21 16:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 42.25 level likely to hold on any further softness to the pattern
2012-02-21 16:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also lost last Thursday's buying conviction with the XLP breadth MCO today
2012-02-21 16:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it snapped back quickly to its zero line
2012-02-21 16:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: allowing little in the way of upside post expansion in the XLP breadth MCSUM
2012-02-21 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no one right now wants to show any leadership with this sector
2012-02-21 16:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the sellers still the ones to provide substance that they really do have control of the flow of money here
2012-02-21 16:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls continue to support the current upside direction of the XLE breadth MCO, MCSUM, and price pattern
2012-02-21 16:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we still have upside price targets of around the 82 level to be met there
2012-02-21 16:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closing today at about 3 points to the good after the breakout, and 6 or7 points to go
2012-02-21 16:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line resistance holding as well for the XLE breadth MCO
2012-02-21 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here's a great example of what happens when we get the MCO and components get out of sync with each other
2012-02-21 16:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice when the XLF breadth MCO moved below its zero line 2 weeks ago
2012-02-21 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the components have not
2012-02-21 16:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then look at the price pattern
2012-02-21 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the components are not in agreement with the MCO itself
2012-02-21 16:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are said to have corrective activity
2012-02-21 16:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which usually takes the form of a sideways consolidation or trading range
2012-02-21 16:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is what we have
2012-02-21 16:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line resistance holding as well with the XLV breadth MCO
2012-02-21 16:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today's sharp move lower in the MCO gave us a nice expansion gap to the downside on the XLV breadth MCSUM
2012-02-21 16:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% Trend now at its zero line, and the MCSUM now within striking distance of +750 level
2012-02-21 16:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know pretty quick if this is a kind of wash out of the sellers here near term or not
2012-02-21 16:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as both levels should hold if the bulls are to build on what they've already accomplished from the "Black Friday" lows of last November
2012-02-21 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime
2012-02-21 16:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have all the characteristics now of a rounding top formation on the price chart
2012-02-21 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how things go over the next couple of days
2012-02-21 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continued to snapback up to the XLI breadth MCO zero line today
2012-02-21 16:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is keeping some good strength with the XLI breadth MCSUM as we continue to try to find support at around the +1000 level (closed today at +962)
2012-02-21 16:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again
2012-02-21 16:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be an excellent time for the bulls to step up here to extend the trend
2012-02-21 16:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the XLB breadth MCO
2012-02-21 16:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the current reading on the XLB breadth MCSUM at +1274...just above the +1250 support level
2012-02-21 16:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how today's price bar looked to "give up" trying to move to new highs today before succumbing to the price weakness into the close
2012-02-21 16:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good sign on the XLK data
2012-02-21 16:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we closed today at new price highs
2012-02-21 16:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the XLK breadth MCO not only moved lower today, but it also moved below its zero line
2012-02-21 16:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2012-02-21 16:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it closed below the reaction lows of late January
2012-02-21 16:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here too
2012-02-21 16:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls really need to show some muscle here and now or we're likely to take an extended week or two of consolidation
2012-02-21 16:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU price pattern did not show any kind of strength today
2012-02-21 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it attempts to find natural support on the XLU breadth MCSUM at around the -250 level
2012-02-21 16:50:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-02-21 16:50:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that the bulls are tired
2012-02-21 16:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and continuing to show the exhaustive behavior that started a week or so ago
2012-02-21 16:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while they look around for more help here
2012-02-21 16:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that there it's not going to be as easy as it once was in finding fresh funds to keep the pressure on the bears
2012-02-21 16:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a quick look at the volume McClellan's...maybe they'll give us the insight we need on whether we'll have a chance now to extend or not
2012-02-21 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the CO and composite NYSE volume MCO's are hanging in there right now
2012-02-21 16:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's not much of any thing going on right now
2012-02-21 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no imbalance at all since both of these MCO's are in and around their zero lines
2012-02-21 16:53:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO, however, did move to a lower low today
2012-02-21 16:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2012-02-21 16:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is in nose bleed territory here with a +1200 reading
2012-02-21 16:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes it more and more difficult for the buyers to have enough strength to continue to push things forward in their direction
2012-02-21 16:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unlike their breadth cousins
2012-02-21 16:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here the NDX volume MCO remains above its reaction highs of last week
2012-02-21 16:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're well out of sync here between the NASDAQ composite and the NDX 100 basket of stocks
2012-02-21 16:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get this way
2012-02-21 16:55:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the most likely overall outcome is for a trading range of some kind
2012-02-21 16:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCSUM's as high as they are
2012-02-21 16:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will tend to be on the volatile side
2012-02-21 16:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's continue to expect wide swings intraday near term with a bullish bias
2012-02-21 16:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCO is echoing its breadth cousin here
2012-02-21 16:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have both breadth and volume showing complimentary behavior
2012-02-21 16:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is a good thing for the health of the price structure itself
2012-02-21 16:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher highs today on the OEX volume MCO
2012-02-21 16:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is a nice way to see that money was moving into these group of stocks more so than the rest
2012-02-21 16:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so more of a defensive nature remains overall
2012-02-21 16:58:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a full snapback up to the zero line has now been met on the Dow volume MCO
2012-02-21 16:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again showing that money was moving into the cream of the crop stocks
2012-02-21 16:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the MID volume MCO
2012-02-21 16:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that money is coming out of the mid caps
2012-02-21 16:59:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and moving into the brass stocks
2012-02-21 17:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a quick welcome to John to the group (sodalake)
2012-02-21 17:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have any questions please don't hesitate to ask...
2012-02-21 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are right now covering the volume McClellan data
2012-02-21 17:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you have a subscription to Decision Point John?
2012-02-21 17:02:13 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: Hello and thanks.  I assume I'm late.  Is there a transcript?  No sub to DP.  Do I need it?
2012-02-21 17:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the chats are Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 Pacific time
2012-02-21 17:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we started about an hour ago
2012-02-21 17:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: transcripts will be available at the TW message board after you sign up
2012-02-21 17:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they won't be available until the following morning...usually before the New York open
2012-02-21 17:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Decision Point would be helpful as you will be able to follow along with the chat
2012-02-21 17:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not necessary
2012-02-21 17:04:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can go month to month...for $19.95...with the wealth of information there unsurpassed on the net
2012-02-21 17:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Carl has charts that you won't find anywhere else
2012-02-21 17:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you can decide
2012-02-21 17:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you do subscribe
2012-02-21 17:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me know and I'll show you around
2012-02-21 17:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the MID
2012-02-21 17:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's move lower in the MID volume MCSUM
2012-02-21 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also gave us a false follow though to the upside in the pattern
2012-02-21 17:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have to be careful here in that we might tracing out an exhaustion pattern
2012-02-21 17:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume MCO also found zero line resistance today
2012-02-21 17:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we continue to trace out what looks like an inverted ledge pattern in the SML volume MCSUM
2012-02-21 17:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here
2012-02-21 17:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like all of the volume MCO components
2012-02-21 17:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain well above the zero lines here
2012-02-21 17:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which continues to suggest corrective activity for the time being
2012-02-21 17:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the high levels we're supporting here on the various MCSUM's
2012-02-21 17:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should be able to continue to withstand any near term selling that might hit the market
2012-02-21 17:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like our beach ball in the deep end of the swimming pool
2012-02-21 17:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears must continue to apply pressure or, like what happens when you release this beach ball under water, prices will tend to retrace much, if not all, of this same near term pressure in quick fashion
2012-02-21 17:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it won't be until the various MCSUM's move from their current lofty levels before the bears will have anything more than a day or so of control before losing it
2012-02-21 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Total Market volume MCO also moved back below its zero line today
2012-02-21 17:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the TM volume MCSUM continues to move pretty much sideways since last weeks peak
2012-02-21 17:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-02-21 17:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls continue to look tired here and are need of a rest
2012-02-21 17:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2012-02-21 17:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will need to show a bit of muscle near term or a the current pause to refresh will likely extend into the end of the month
2012-02-21 17:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many of the MCO's still below their zero lines
2012-02-21 17:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components that make up the MCO's still above their zero line
2012-02-21 17:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation here on any further weakness will be a price pattern that will turn out to be a trading range of one type or the other
2012-02-21 17:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for some of the indices, this will part of a triangle
2012-02-21 17:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while others will show a high level consolidation
2012-02-21 17:13:33 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: Dave, what do you mean components?
2012-02-21 17:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as a reminder
2012-02-21 17:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if the MCSUM peaks out here
2012-02-21 17:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will still have the momentum move still to come for prices overall
2012-02-21 17:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're probably about a month away still from any kind of tradable top
2012-02-21 17:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK John...
2012-02-21 17:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the McClellan Oscillator is made of of two "trend" components
2012-02-21 17:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a 10% Trend which is the 19 day EMA of the A/D line
2012-02-21 17:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a 5% Trend which is the 39 day EMA of the A/D line
2012-02-21 17:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the difference between two EMA's is the daily McClellan Oscillator reading
2012-02-21 17:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like a price chart
2012-02-21 17:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the 19 day EMA is leading the slower 39 day EMA to the upside
2012-02-21 17:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the chart is called as being in a bullish configuration
2012-02-21 17:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where any pullback or rest in the pattern will be absorbed by these same EMA's
2012-02-21 17:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see if I can remember where Stock Charts has their public McClellan chart so you can see moment
2012-02-21 17:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking...
2012-02-21 17:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry...not finding it
2012-02-21 17:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-02-21 17:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what DP gives us is a way to look at the internals of the MCO
2012-02-21 17:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's this information that is key in knowing whether prices are either trending or consolidating
2012-02-21 17:22:16 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: I have the 19,39 MACD of the $ADSPD (SPX adv/dec) set up in TradeStation.  Both 19 and 39 are below zero.  So components of SPX MCO are below zero?
2012-02-21 17:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the same thing
2012-02-21 17:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something like that may work intraday
2012-02-21 17:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not the same data
2012-02-21 17:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because you are measuring the direction of the MCO
2012-02-21 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not the components that make up its structure
2012-02-21 17:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-02-21 17:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2012-02-21 17:23:27 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: I'll sub DP and take a look
2012-02-21 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO has its 10% component at +110
2012-02-21 17:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5% component is at +118
2012-02-21 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a crossover "sell"
2012-02-21 17:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since the components both remain above their zero lines
2012-02-21 17:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a hold signal
2012-02-21 17:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCO itself below its zero line
2012-02-21 17:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why prices will only be able to chop sideways
2012-02-21 17:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you need both the components and the MCO itself on the same side of the zero line for prices to trend
2012-02-21 17:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quickly
2012-02-21 17:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the McClellan Oscillator measures the SPEED in which the 19 day EMA and the 39 day EMA are either moving toward or away from each other
2012-02-21 17:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the McClellan Summation Index measures the DISTANCE between these same two EMA's
2012-02-21 17:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM zero line the point in which these same EMA's are at the same level
2012-02-21 17:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the MCO is also at the zero line at the same time
2012-02-21 17:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are basically moving in tandem with each other
2012-02-21 17:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we are able to get from this information then
2012-02-21 17:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is how much energy there is to push prices in one direction of the other based on the daily velocity of which money is either moving into or out of the market
2012-02-21 17:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can not move in any direction without money leading in this same direction
2012-02-21 17:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price can not rise without money moving in
2012-02-21 17:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can not decline without money moving out
2012-02-21 17:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and money IS the ultimate sentiment indicator
2012-02-21 17:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't lie
2012-02-21 17:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike polls in which people tend to not tell the complete truth
2012-02-21 17:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2012-02-21 17:29:27 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: Bull or Bear context doesn't matter?
2012-02-21 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would suggest having DP for the month
2012-02-21 17:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't matter one bit
2012-02-21 17:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2012-02-21 17:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money moves in advance of the direction in which prices are due to follow
2012-02-21 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do in here is that we look at the daily
2012-02-21 17:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from there everyone can tweak this information to compliment their own trading style
2012-02-21 17:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the best thing here is
2012-02-21 17:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything analytical in the markets is based on this backbone information
2012-02-21 17:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you know the direction of money
2012-02-21 17:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you can use your indicators that much better
2012-02-21 17:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2012-02-21 17:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if money is moving into the market
2012-02-21 17:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you get a bearish divergent high in a momentum oscillator
2012-02-21 17:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that it will come to be much more than just a correction against this same tide of money flow
2012-02-21 17:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if money is moving out
2012-02-21 17:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you get a divergent topping structure
2012-02-21 17:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they your odds increase substantially that your playing the short side will deliver you a better return on your investment
2012-02-21 17:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the ocean and a rip tide
2012-02-21 17:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you go with the tide
2012-02-21 17:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you make progress
2012-02-21 17:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you go against the tide
2012-02-21 17:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you MIGHT make progress
2012-02-21 17:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you'll be exhausted in doing so
2012-02-21 17:33:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always better to go with the path (or tide) of least resistance
2012-02-21 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...if you get DP by the next session on Thursday
2012-02-21 17:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will start to make a bit more sense in what we work with
2012-02-21 17:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that we have finished with the McClellan data
2012-02-21 17:34:36 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: ok
2012-02-21 17:34:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now move to the volume oscillators to see if there there's been more selling or buying on a daily basis
2012-02-21 17:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are mixed (Climatic Volume Indicator for John)
2012-02-21 17:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market is a bit out of sync here
2012-02-21 17:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why we had a choppy session today
2012-02-21 17:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now neutral
2012-02-21 17:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control of the action
2012-02-21 17:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO is the Short Term Volume Oscillator...similar to the On Balance Volume indicator
2012-02-21 17:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's continue to suggest a strong uptrend in progress
2012-02-21 17:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the TRIN's
2012-02-21 17:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .95
2012-02-21 17:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.02
2012-02-21 17:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally "oversold"
2012-02-21 17:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .93
2012-02-21 17:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now neural at .88
2012-02-21 17:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.09
2012-02-21 17:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .96
2012-02-21 17:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting up there...but we have a little room to move here
2012-02-21 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for John
2012-02-21 17:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the Open 10 readings
2012-02-21 17:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more difficult it is for the sellers to keep that proverbial beach ball below the water line
2012-02-21 17:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which then suggests that any pullbacks over the near term will tend to be short lived and shallow
2012-02-21 17:39:45 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: I know what TRIN is but what is open 10?
2012-02-21 17:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the information we have with the MCO and it's components residing on either side of their zero lines
2012-02-21 17:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then use this information to anticipate that we're in a larger trading range as well
2012-02-21 17:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Open 10 is taking a 10 day SMA of the daily component TRIN numbers
2012-02-21 17:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: readings above 1.10 are "oversold"
2012-02-21 17:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: readings below .80 are "overbought"
2012-02-21 17:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ Open 10, for example, was "overbought" last week
2012-02-21 17:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it has been able to, what we call, "correct on the fly"
2012-02-21 17:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning
2012-02-21 17:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that prices continue to rise, while at the same time, the index itself has been able to work off its imbalance of buyers over sellers (or sellers over buyers) over a 10 day period
2012-02-21 17:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a sign of trend strength in the pattern
2012-02-21 17:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't worry
2012-02-21 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will make start making sense to you over time
2012-02-21 17:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-02-21 17:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a different way of looking at market mechanics
2012-02-21 17:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the rest of the group...anything else?
2012-02-21 17:43:50 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: I'm following.  It sounds like the side that will likely take control in the near term is the buyers then.
2012-02-21 17:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain in control...yes
2012-02-21 17:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they are a tired bunch
2012-02-21 17:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are pausing here
2012-02-21 17:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a short term TRENDING basis
2012-02-21 17:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on an intermediate term TRENDING basis, the bulls remain fully in control of the action
2012-02-21 17:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will remain in control for at least another month
2012-02-21 17:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's only IF we show exhaustion here
2012-02-21 17:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears can not develop anything more than a correctional structure until there is more balance between the two sides
2012-02-21 17:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at this point
2012-02-21 17:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers can only generate a correction of only hours at a time...not even days at this point
2012-02-21 17:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for the bears to take control
2012-02-21 17:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they must have money moving out of the market
2012-02-21 17:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the A/D lines still rising here
2012-02-21 17:46:23 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: Dave, can you qualify exhaustion?  Or is that nuance?
2012-02-21 17:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like running a marathon up a hill
2012-02-21 17:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it all depends on how strong your heart is (volume)
2012-02-21 17:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what your breath capacity is as you climb in elevation (breadth)
2012-02-21 17:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the marathon runner will tend to slow as they climb
2012-02-21 17:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the degree of exhaustion here
2012-02-21 17:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the price pattern of, let's say, the NDX
2012-02-21 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that our climb up the mountain has been more of a sprint
2012-02-21 17:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're actually just slowing the pace
2012-02-21 17:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still continue to move forward
2012-02-21 17:48:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can stretch only so far the rubber band before it needs to relax
2012-02-21 17:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're at that point
2012-02-21 17:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-02-21 17:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am really generalizing here so that it makes the best conceptual sense
2012-02-21 17:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you continue to go over this will make more analytical sense
2012-02-21 17:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to answer your question
2012-02-21 17:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are NOT to a point of exhaustion where a reversal in trend is indicated
2012-02-21 17:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are only pausing
2012-02-21 17:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2012-02-21 17:50:23 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: yes
2012-02-21 17:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: markets do not turn on a dime
2012-02-21 17:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the movement of money must precede direction
2012-02-21 17:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth leads price
2012-02-21 17:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when prices lead breadth
2012-02-21 17:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there must be a reset to the pattern
2012-02-21 17:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we call that "false starts"
2012-02-21 17:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-02-21 17:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the chat sessions generally last about 2 hours
2012-02-21 17:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's a open forum...with me as your fearless leader
2012-02-21 17:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure you'll enjoy the digs
2012-02-21 17:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-02-21 17:52:26 [Message] sodalake -> Chat: I'm good for now, thanks
2012-02-21 17:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cool
2012-02-21 17:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have DP in the morning
2012-02-21 17:52:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll be able to follow the transcripts
2012-02-21 17:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not...don't worry
2012-02-21 17:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it usually takes about 2-3 weeks to get comfortable
2012-02-21 17:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2012-02-21 17:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-02-21 17:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2012-02-21 17:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are going on Thursday
2012-02-21 17:53:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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