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Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-02-16 16:00:13 fib1618: good day
2016-02-16 16:00:16 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-02-16 16:01:12 thespookyone: Fine, and you?
2016-02-16 16:02:01 fib1618: doing fine...thanks for asking
2016-02-16 16:03:14 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-02-16 16:03:28 thespookyone: Quite a market [smile]
2016-02-16 16:04:23 fib1618: thrills and chills
2016-02-16 16:04:26 thespookyone: I came into today long, and felt more lucky than smart, LOL
2016-02-16 16:04:49 fib1618: well...we did have a nice divergent bounce on Friday
2016-02-16 16:04:58 thespookyone: yes
2016-02-16 16:05:02 fib1618: which would suggest at least some follow through at the open today
2016-02-16 16:05:33 fib1618: and when Globex was up nicely on Monday even after the announcement of Scalia's death
2016-02-16 16:05:38 thespookyone: I saw a huge IWM call block bought last week, as well
2016-02-16 16:05:45 fib1618: it was likely to be a firm day
2016-02-16 16:05:53 fib1618: started to lose it though after the first hour
2016-02-16 16:05:57 fib1618: but recovered
2016-02-16 16:06:31 thespookyone: I watched breadth, it was staying nice, so....
2016-02-16 16:06:32 fib1618: well...there was also a "lessening of selling pressure" last week as well
2016-02-16 16:08:13 fib1618: good plurality today at 4.23:1
2016-02-16 16:08:24 fib1618: let me check the BETS and we'll get started
2016-02-16 16:09:17 fib1618: -40
2016-02-16 16:09:25 fib1618: still looks corrective from that angle
2016-02-16 16:09:35 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2016-02-16 16:10:10 fib1618: after moving back above the zero line on Friday
2016-02-16 16:10:18 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continued higher today
2016-02-16 16:10:41 fib1618: and even took out the reaction highs of early February in the process
2016-02-16 16:11:12 fib1618: this then provides us with a trigger of bull divergence in place
2016-02-16 16:11:38 fib1618: with an upside target in the NYA of around 9600
2016-02-16 16:14:29 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO components though
2016-02-16 16:14:48 fib1618: and we see that the 10% Trend has only snapped back to its zero line today
2016-02-16 16:15:02 fib1618: and finishing the day with a +4 reading
2016-02-16 16:15:36 fib1618: this then puts a slightly different spin on what the CO MCO might be suggesting
2016-02-16 16:15:42 fib1618: as this being more of a corrective sequence
2016-02-16 16:15:52 fib1618: and that some sort of pullback is likely as soon as Wednesday
2016-02-16 16:16:12 fib1618: it also tells us that in order for our to have a confirmed trigger of bull divergence
2016-02-16 16:16:30 fib1618: we will actually need to move above the end of January high point
2016-02-16 16:16:53 fib1618: price pattern wise though
2016-02-16 16:17:01 fib1618: we have now closed all of the downside gaps from last week
2016-02-16 16:17:22 fib1618: and from where prices can now pull back a bit to regroup
2016-02-16 16:17:42 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor
2016-02-16 16:18:29 fib1618: and we see that the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM still has a way to go before it will break above the current declining tops line that is controlling the pattern from December and January highs
2016-02-16 16:18:49 fib1618: it looks like it comes in at around the -825 level
2016-02-16 16:19:18 fib1618: so we better have better looking data coming from the composite or we could have a rally failure here
2016-02-16 16:19:27 fib1618: ouch
2016-02-16 16:19:29 fib1618: and we don't
2016-02-16 16:20:05 fib1618: as the NYSE Composite breadth MCO has only made it the +30 level
2016-02-16 16:20:28 fib1618: also just noticed that the NYSE CO breadth MCO settled today at natural resistance at the +50 level
2016-02-16 16:20:55 fib1618: even the NYSE Composite 10% Trend is weaker than the CO data
2016-02-16 16:21:05 fib1618: and as we have learned many times before
2016-02-16 16:21:13 fib1618: if the commons are leading the broader market
2016-02-16 16:21:25 fib1618: we have to be on guard for some sort of pattern reset to correct this inconsistency
2016-02-16 16:22:09 fib1618: based on this so far
2016-02-16 16:22:22 fib1618: we should have a zero line snapback in both NYSE MCO's tomorrow
2016-02-16 16:22:36 fib1618: and if it's worse than that
2016-02-16 16:22:53 fib1618: this would be an Elliott 2nd wave of some degree
2016-02-16 16:23:20 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-02-16 16:23:31 fib1618: and here we see a bit more strength coming in today
2016-02-16 16:23:51 fib1618: probably due to many issues being as undervalued as they are
2016-02-16 16:24:03 fib1618: don't know if you folks noted this or not with the cumulative charts
2016-02-16 16:24:11 fib1618: but the NAAD line moved to new all time lows last week
2016-02-16 16:24:31 fib1618: which isn't surprising given the NASDAQ's make up
2016-02-16 16:24:50 fib1618: but it does play well to the bears as something that isn't very positive right now
2016-02-16 16:25:14 fib1618: looking at the NASDAQ MCO components
2016-02-16 16:25:22 fib1618: and they too remain under their zero lines
2016-02-16 16:25:31 fib1618: in fact
2016-02-16 16:25:51 fib1618: we weren't able to move above the highs seen in late January
2016-02-16 16:26:28 fib1618: and we have seen what this kind of internal divergence can lead to over the last couple of weeks
2016-02-16 16:26:57 fib1618: one positive is that the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is trying its best to hold the -1000 level
2016-02-16 16:27:15 fib1618: but unless we see a better day on Wednesday in breadth plurality
2016-02-16 16:27:28 fib1618: this reflex rally isn't going to get very far
2016-02-16 16:28:04 fib1618: but, for now, let's respect the bullish divergence between price and the MCO
2016-02-16 16:28:23 fib1618: but it doesn't look like a low from where prices can rally up from
2016-02-16 16:28:37 fib1618: more of a slippery slope if anything
2016-02-16 16:29:11 fib1618: ahh...OK...we have better thrust here with the NDX breadth MCO
2016-02-16 16:29:32 fib1618: and so we now know where the large majority of today's buying was centered in this marketplace
2016-02-16 16:30:02 fib1618: we even got the 10% Trend to move back above its zero line today
2016-02-16 16:30:11 fib1618: so we have a minimal buy signal there
2016-02-16 16:30:24 fib1618: with bullish divergence working
2016-02-16 16:31:06 fib1618: hmmm....could be an irregular flat there
2016-02-16 16:31:18 fib1618: with the NASDAQ showing little in the way of power
2016-02-16 16:31:24 fib1618: but the NDX leading the way
2016-02-16 16:32:03 fib1618: don't know for sure..but we're really out of sync now
2016-02-16 16:32:13 fib1618: let's see how the rest look
2016-02-16 16:32:19 fib1618: it's like the pattern is being forced here
2016-02-16 16:32:49 fib1618: we have the same situation with the SPX breadth MCO and it's components
2016-02-16 16:33:11 fib1618: which suggests that the top 100 in the NDX are driving the SPX here
2016-02-16 16:33:25 fib1618: so maybe this is a simple case of buying the large cap issues
2016-02-16 16:33:42 fib1618: we'll see if that's true in a moment
2016-02-16 16:34:05 fib1618: the SPX 5% component has now fully snapped back to its zero line
2016-02-16 16:34:30 fib1618: so with the 10% above this same demarcation line between positive and negative money flow
2016-02-16 16:35:11 fib1618: we should, again, see some sort of pull back in the next day or so for the 10% to snapback back toward zero, while the 5% repels away from this same line of resistance
2016-02-16 16:36:08 fib1618: looks like the declining tops line on the SPX breadth MCSUM intersects at around the -500 level
2016-02-16 16:36:34 fib1618: just don't know if we have enough underlying support to get above this line at this point
2016-02-16 16:37:31 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO's amplitude is the same as the SPX
2016-02-16 16:38:03 fib1618: but it still has a little way to go in order to take out the end January highs
2016-02-16 16:38:27 fib1618: same with the Dow...boy we're messy
2016-02-16 16:39:06 fib1618: good news here is that the Dow breadth MCSUM has moved above its declining tops line today
2016-02-16 16:39:24 fib1618: so all we need there is to see it move up and through the -500 level
2016-02-16 16:39:50 fib1618: and that's not likely to happen until we take out the end January highs on the Dow MCO
2016-02-16 16:40:39 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO moved to a higher high today
2016-02-16 16:40:58 fib1618: as did both the 10% and 5% components
2016-02-16 16:41:51 fib1618: and just when you think we're looking half way decent
2016-02-16 16:41:58 fib1618: then you get to the SML breadth MCO
2016-02-16 16:42:13 fib1618: and like the NYSE CO data
2016-02-16 16:42:19 fib1618: it too is also at the +50 level
2016-02-16 16:42:34 fib1618: while the 10% has a snapback reading of +5
2016-02-16 16:42:45 fib1618: we're just out of sync here
2016-02-16 16:42:50 fib1618: looks like we need another flush
2016-02-16 16:43:09 fib1618: sort of like getting up from being in bed with the flu
2016-02-16 16:43:23 fib1618: and not all there...achy in parts
2016-02-16 16:43:38 fib1618: but you're feeling better than before
2016-02-16 16:43:56 fib1618: it's going to be up to volume
2016-02-16 16:44:21 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO is pretty much saying corrective activity
2016-02-16 16:44:30 fib1618: with the components both below their zero lines
2016-02-16 16:45:01 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCSUM in great need of a booster shot
2016-02-16 16:45:41 fib1618: the declining tops line on the TM breadth MCSUM intersects at -600
2016-02-16 16:45:46 fib1618: so we have a long way to go there
2016-02-16 16:45:49 fib1618: so...
2016-02-16 16:46:10 fib1618: it would appear that the last two days of rally was centered more in the large cap products
2016-02-16 16:46:22 fib1618: with little to show in the secondaries
2016-02-16 16:46:33 fib1618: and a bit better response in the small caps
2016-02-16 16:46:53 fib1618: mid caps look like they were pulled up by the large caps
2016-02-16 16:47:04 fib1618: but there still doesn't seem to be any great wave of buying
2016-02-16 16:47:18 fib1618: which would further suggest another short covering bear market rally
2016-02-16 16:47:27 fib1618: let's see how volume looks
2016-02-16 16:48:08 fib1618: and we see that there was a bit more strength in the broader NYSE Composite volume MCO than it was in the CO Volume MCO
2016-02-16 16:48:34 fib1618: but the Composite settled today at a +50
2016-02-16 16:48:48 fib1618: going to need more than that to convince those on the sidelines
2016-02-16 16:48:59 fib1618: but we do have volume leading there
2016-02-16 16:49:05 fib1618: but not with the CO
2016-02-16 16:49:14 fib1618: so we're liable to chop
2016-02-16 16:49:43 fib1618: both of the NYSE volume MCSUM's also found support at around the -1000 level
2016-02-16 16:49:56 fib1618: so this could be just an obligatory bounce off of natural support
2016-02-16 16:50:00 fib1618: if this is the case
2016-02-16 16:50:14 fib1618: we should fail quickly and move sharply lower by the end of the week
2016-02-16 16:50:21 fib1618: oh's OPEX this week
2016-02-16 16:50:29 fib1618: this could be our problem here
2016-02-16 16:50:58 fib1618: nice strong move higher in the NASDAQ volume MCO
2016-02-16 16:51:18 fib1618: and we're now at the highest levels since early January
2016-02-16 16:51:20 fib1618: that's good
2016-02-16 16:51:49 fib1618: but the components continue lag
2016-02-16 16:51:52 fib1618: and that's bad
2016-02-16 16:52:03 fib1618: as it suggests this as being only corrective activity
2016-02-16 16:52:39 fib1618: don't think the bulls are going to like the TRIN numbers today
2016-02-16 16:53:10 fib1618: same kind of situation with the NDX volume MCO and its components
2016-02-16 16:53:18 fib1618: though we do have a bit more strength in the 10% Trend
2016-02-16 16:53:38 fib1618: probably due to some heavy hitter stocks being bought today
2016-02-16 16:54:23 fib1618: a quick check and I couldn't find anything that stood out
2016-02-16 16:54:51 fib1618: a semi good day for the SPX volume MCO
2016-02-16 16:54:58 fib1618: though it only got to the +50 level
2016-02-16 16:55:34 fib1618: and the 10% component is like many others at its zero line
2016-02-16 16:55:48 fib1618: that's not enough to break the downside trend
2016-02-16 16:56:01 fib1618: so it's looking more like a short covering rally
2016-02-16 16:56:17 fib1618: though it's always good to keep in mind
2016-02-16 16:56:24 fib1618: that most bottoms start with short covering
2016-02-16 16:56:26 fib1618: however
2016-02-16 16:56:50 fib1618: even more bottoms that begin with short covering show 10% Trend leadership
2016-02-16 16:56:55 fib1618: and we don't have that yet
2016-02-16 16:57:51 fib1618: the OEX volume MCO looks to be much weaker than its breadth counterpart
2016-02-16 16:58:04 fib1618: with its 10% Trend at a -28 reading
2016-02-16 16:58:09 fib1618: and that's not going to do it
2016-02-16 16:58:33 fib1618: the Dow volume data looks similar to the breadth data
2016-02-16 16:58:51 fib1618: no volume confirmation at all in the MID
2016-02-16 16:59:16 fib1618: as the components here remain well below their zero line
2016-02-16 16:59:41 fib1618: but the volume in the SML breadth MCO is stronger than its breadth cousin
2016-02-16 16:59:46 fib1618: so sloppy
2016-02-16 17:00:19 fib1618: and like the SML volume MCO components
2016-02-16 17:01:03 fib1618: the 10% TM volume component remains near their zero line
2016-02-16 17:01:23 fib1618: this whole thing smacks of short covering
2016-02-16 17:01:28 fib1618: no fresh money at all
2016-02-16 17:01:31 fib1618: and because of this
2016-02-16 17:01:51 fib1618: we could reverse sharply at anytime once those who wish to cover, finish doing so
2016-02-16 17:02:13 fib1618: so...
2016-02-16 17:02:31 fib1618: we might see a bit more firmness to begin with in the morning
2016-02-16 17:02:37 fib1618: but unlike today
2016-02-16 17:02:57 fib1618: when this reflex exhausts itself
2016-02-16 17:03:11 fib1618: there may not be any takes on the sidelines to push things up again
2016-02-16 17:03:15 fib1618: near term
2016-02-16 17:03:32 fib1618: we should see a pause...and probably some retracement here
2016-02-16 17:03:46 fib1618: but we might just wind up in a chop for the rest of the week
2016-02-16 17:03:58 fib1618: and then try to take care of business next week
2016-02-16 17:04:36 fib1618: our idea of from late January of a possible low in the next week or so does remain though
2016-02-16 17:04:53 fib1618: but it's going to take much more strength than what we got for the last 2 days to make that a reality
2016-02-16 17:05:13 fib1618: especially since many of the A/D lines we review over the weekend continue to show a pattern of lower lows
2016-02-16 17:05:32 fib1618: and that suggests that it's going to take another 3-5 weeks to get a tradable low
2016-02-16 17:05:51 fib1618: lots of dynamics going on right now
2016-02-16 17:06:01 fib1618: pushing and pulling
2016-02-16 17:06:12 fib1618: short term...the sellers have dried up
2016-02-16 17:06:17 fib1618: but at the same time
2016-02-16 17:06:26 fib1618: we're not getting any buyers committing here either
2016-02-16 17:06:43 fib1618: lets see what the OBV's look like
2016-02-16 17:07:28 fib1618: SPX and NDX CVI suggest a price peak within the next 2 days
2016-02-16 17:07:37 fib1618: so it's not unanimous
2016-02-16 17:08:02 fib1618: we'll call the STVO's neutral
2016-02-16 17:08:09 fib1618: so one side is about to take near term control
2016-02-16 17:08:34 fib1618: VTO's have been shy to say anything being no exception
2016-02-16 17:08:50 fib1618: so we'll cal that neutral
2016-02-16 17:09:01 fib1618: OK...TRIN's
2016-02-16 17:09:13 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .73
2016-02-16 17:09:33 fib1618: so we'll call that border line covering and maybe some nibbling
2016-02-16 17:09:44 fib1618: Open 10 at .98
2016-02-16 17:09:55 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .50
2016-02-16 17:10:08 fib1618: so we'll call that short covering given the MCO data
2016-02-16 17:10:18 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.03
2016-02-16 17:10:30 fib1618: TM TRIN at .55
2016-02-16 17:10:42 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.02
2016-02-16 17:10:50 fib1618: as it continues to meander sideways for the most part
2016-02-16 17:10:54 fib1618: so...
2016-02-16 17:11:11 fib1618: it would appear that the buyers are attempting to hold the price pattern lows of last week
2016-02-16 17:11:53 fib1618: but it might be that we're having a false start here as many of the troops seem to be holding back a bit to see what may happen
2016-02-16 17:12:03 fib1618: like a probe
2016-02-16 17:12:11 fib1618: near term
2016-02-16 17:12:23 fib1618: we should see a pause as soon as Wednesday
2016-02-16 17:12:53 fib1618: which may include a sharp pullback if we don't get any follow through today's positive breadth ratio
2016-02-16 17:13:20 fib1618: at this point
2016-02-16 17:13:43 fib1618: I would take the position of "show me"
2016-02-16 17:13:52 fib1618: but it appears that we're not ready yet
2016-02-16 17:14:28 fib1618: and certainty not ready for a counter trend less a change in trend
2016-02-16 17:14:56 fib1618: it's going to take a week or so of push and pull to do so
2016-02-16 17:15:08 fib1618: back and fill...that kind of thing
2016-02-16 17:15:30 fib1618: so there doesn't seem to be any rush to climb on board
2016-02-16 17:15:33 fib1618: which means
2016-02-16 17:15:45 fib1618: "hit and run" rules continue
2016-02-16 17:15:50 fib1618: anything else?
2016-02-16 17:16:00 fib1618: I'll check around
2016-02-16 17:16:34 fib1618: ISEE got a bit frothy today...I think it was 165
2016-02-16 17:17:10 fib1618: it was 168
2016-02-16 17:17:28 fib1618: where any readings above 140 have been near term tops for several months now
2016-02-16 17:17:41 fib1618: and with OPEX this week
2016-02-16 17:18:04 fib1618: my guess is that we had speculators moving in trying to make a killing on near term contracts
2016-02-16 17:18:55 fib1618: AAII sentiment is very bearish right sentiment is right for a low
2016-02-16 17:19:26 fib1618: so is NAAIM
2016-02-16 17:20:35 fib1618: nice rally in the Dollar today back above the 200 day EMA
2016-02-16 17:21:04 fib1618: got our expected snapback today in gold...down $38
2016-02-16 17:21:48 fib1618: have room to pull back another $20 and still be good to go longer term
2016-02-16 17:22:48 fib1618: hard reversal for WTIC at the 20 day EMA
2016-02-16 17:22:53 fib1618: not surprising
2016-02-16 17:23:24 fib1618: boy that whole chart pattern still looks weak (WTIC)
2016-02-16 17:23:43 thespookyone: yes sir!
2016-02-16 17:23:54 fib1618: stop an reverse there at $32.54
2016-02-16 17:24:12 fib1618: in fact
2016-02-16 17:24:26 fib1618: the chart pattern looks weaker than it did in January if that's even possible
2016-02-16 17:24:37 fib1618: must be a bottom [smile]
2016-02-16 17:25:07 fib1618: aside from a 2 day rally in stocks
2016-02-16 17:25:11 fib1618: nothing has changed
2016-02-16 17:25:15 thespookyone: if we say too much it will be, LOL
2016-02-16 17:25:30 fib1618: that's the curse of our business
2016-02-16 17:25:46 fib1618: when we lose our objectivity
2016-02-16 17:25:51 fib1618: anything else?
2016-02-16 17:26:09 fib1618: bottom line
2016-02-16 17:26:12 fib1618: remain defensive
2016-02-16 17:26:30 fib1618: and try not to let the market pull on your "long strings"
2016-02-16 17:26:57 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-02-16 17:27:00 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-02-16 17:27:05 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2016-02-16 17:27:10 thespookyone: thx
2016-02-16 17:27:14 fib1618: and we'll see how things look on Thursday
2016-02-16 17:27:16 fib1618: good night

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