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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-02-15 16:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-02-15 16:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-02-15 16:01:47 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Good, how are you?
2011-02-15 16:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fine..running around...will need another minute
2011-02-15 16:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry...need two more minutes...
2011-02-15 16:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-02-15 16:05:55 [Message] tracca -> Chat: none from me
2011-02-15 16:06:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: had a Fib like experience today
2011-02-15 16:07:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: made a 5K investment in 1985 in an oil well-let it sit till now
2011-02-15 16:07:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: usually, I don't invest for more than a week
2011-02-15 16:08:15 [Message] tracca -> Chat: and....
2011-02-15 16:08:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: got a call today from them-it's worth 300K I suppose I better think about investing long term more often LOL
2011-02-15 16:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really?
2011-02-15 16:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good for you!
2011-02-15 16:08:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, almost had heart attack-think my wife did, LOL
2011-02-15 16:09:08 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: congratulations, well done!
2011-02-15 16:09:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: lucky, but thanks!
2011-02-15 16:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...so you now have the down payment for the island...whatcha going to name it?!?
2011-02-15 16:09:37 [Message] tracca -> Chat: congratulations!!!
2011-02-15 16:09:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: was thinking maybe vacation home-good time to buy
2011-02-15 16:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: depends
2011-02-15 16:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in 1985
2011-02-15 16:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I let one get away
2011-02-15 16:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was offered rights to a new fangled technology called Cellular Towers
2011-02-15 16:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I passed on it
2011-02-15 16:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because I figured the baby bells would grab all of the key areas and leave me with nothing
2011-02-15 16:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: little did I know..
2011-02-15 16:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-02-15 16:11:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, I thought that as well
2011-02-15 16:12:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: also didn't buy mci at 5 cents, because I was sure they could not compete
2011-02-15 16:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-02-15 16:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mc who?
2011-02-15 16:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-02-15 16:12:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: they went bankrupt-but to $100 first, LOL
2011-02-15 16:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep
2011-02-15 16:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was also a little company called...what was it?
2011-02-15 16:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Microsoft?
2011-02-15 16:13:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, and we both could have bought walmart in 75, as well
2011-02-15 16:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...long ago and far away
2011-02-15 16:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need a better crystal ball
2011-02-15 16:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...no questions?
2011-02-15 16:13:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that's why I'm here
2011-02-15 16:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for questions or a crystal ball?
2011-02-15 16:14:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: refine the crystal
2011-02-15 16:14:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2011-02-15 16:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I don't have a crystal ball
2011-02-15 16:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I do have an 8 ball!
2011-02-15 16:14:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: so you say LOL
2011-02-15 16:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me shake it up
2011-02-15 16:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: damn... "Ask me later"
2011-02-15 16:14:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2011-02-15 16:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll see if we can have a ball or not
2011-02-15 16:15:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: seriously Dave-you are the king of this!
2011-02-15 16:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eh...
2011-02-15 16:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm just a mere conduit
2011-02-15 16:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...here we go
2011-02-15 16:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after bouncing higher on Friday
2011-02-15 16:16:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I always say-it matters WHO's hand the tools are in
2011-02-15 16:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and giving us a small point change yesterday
2011-02-15 16:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO is once again back at its zero line
2011-02-15 16:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the first time in a while
2011-02-15 16:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might be setting up for a change in direction
2011-02-15 16:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-02-15 16:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem here
2011-02-15 16:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we have a lower top
2011-02-15 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus we see that this zero line snapback is coming in just as we meet overhead resistance on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-02-15 16:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything else
2011-02-15 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a sign of a mature uptrend that is now showing a loss of momentum
2011-02-15 16:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something in which we've been pointing to for the last couple of weeks
2011-02-15 16:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's important that if we're going to see continued uptrend beyond another month or so
2011-02-15 16:18:51 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I thought we were expecting the rally to continue until April with Nasdaq at 4200
2011-02-15 16:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's up to the bulls to show some muscle here and lit up the engines
2011-02-15 16:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be
2011-02-15 16:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the commons are having a struggle here
2011-02-15 16:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not something to trade on
2011-02-15 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's a warning that we're starting to run on fumes
2011-02-15 16:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-02-15 16:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with all that said
2011-02-15 16:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did have a breakout to the upside on the CO NYSE A/D line last week
2011-02-15 16:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as I shared over the weekend
2011-02-15 16:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a technical snapback to or towards the breakout line would be the near term expectation after such an occurrence
2011-02-15 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...given that the commons tend to bring up the rear to any trending move overall
2011-02-15 16:21:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be that all of this sluggishness is a temporary situation
2011-02-15 16:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't point it out
2011-02-15 16:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how we're doing elsewhere
2011-02-15 16:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM is also at the +750 level
2011-02-15 16:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too it would seem that we're starting to show some sluggish behavior
2011-02-15 16:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, the components here remain on a crossover buy
2011-02-15 16:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a bounce higher would be indicated as soon as tomorrow
2011-02-15 16:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to consider here
2011-02-15 16:23:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is unlike the CO breadth MCSUM
2011-02-15 16:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite breadth MCSUM is still a ways away from challenging its November highs
2011-02-15 16:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests that we need to see any new strength come from the interest rate sensitives if we're going to be able to light the engines for a course correction
2011-02-15 16:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we know that the Bond CEF A/D line continues to be choppy
2011-02-15 16:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until this group of issues show some sort of breakout here
2011-02-15 16:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will become more and more vulnerable to a change in the direction of money flow itself
2011-02-15 16:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price, however, will still remain buoyant...for a while yet
2011-02-15 16:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why the April time period is still on the radar
2011-02-15 16:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the zero line as well for the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2011-02-15 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're back to indecision
2011-02-15 16:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the separation of the postings on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM remain fairly congested
2011-02-15 16:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which indicates a lack of conviction by the bulls on this current run up from the beginning February lows
2011-02-15 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX
2011-02-15 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're doing just fine and dandy
2011-02-15 16:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with bottoms above bottoms controlling the NDX breadth MCO
2011-02-15 16:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nice separation of the postings to the upside on the NDX breadth MCSUM
2011-02-15 16:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: basically...this is NOT the index to short here
2011-02-15 16:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as money currently believes that there is good value with the growth stocks that make up this index
2011-02-15 16:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCSUM is also moving into its resistance point
2011-02-15 16:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...the November highs are the important focus here on the various MCSUM's for any indication of an extension
2011-02-15 16:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it could be that all we're doing here is regrouping
2011-02-15 16:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would like to say that this Friday's OPEX might have something to do with this
2011-02-15 16:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I don't know if this is culprit or not
2011-02-15 16:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2011-02-15 16:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we ARE extended
2011-02-15 16:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we ARE at resistance
2011-02-15 16:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we NEED to see fresh money to come in here
2011-02-15 16:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the uptrend in money flow will not be able to maintain its direction
2011-02-15 16:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the OEX breadth MCO
2011-02-15 16:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see our first top beneath a top
2011-02-15 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we have resistance coming up with the OEX breadth MCSUM
2011-02-15 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing is random here
2011-02-15 16:34:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market knows what it's doing...and exactly where it's doing it
2011-02-15 16:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for weeks now we knew what the bulls have to do to extend this trend into late spring
2011-02-15 16:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really...they're running of time to do this
2011-02-15 16:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this should had been put to bed a couple of weeks ago
2011-02-15 16:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it seems that the participants are "waiting for something"
2011-02-15 16:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a simple case of fatigue
2011-02-15 16:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also know that much of any short term excesses in liquidity have lessened in the last couple of weeks using the price a gold as insight
2011-02-15 16:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have to be cognizant of the fact that we might not be able to get the boost needed to extend the current rally past early April
2011-02-15 16:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: March looks fine
2011-02-15 16:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and investments into retirement funds going into tax time tends to keep things from losing their buoyancy
2011-02-15 16:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing with the Dow breadth MCSUM
2011-02-15 16:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a lot of consistency here
2011-02-15 16:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is great!
2011-02-15 16:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2011-02-15 16:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market if moving in sync
2011-02-15 16:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it makes it so much easier to anticipate its next move
2011-02-15 16:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..on to the MID
2011-02-15 16:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the MID breadth MCO hasn't been able as yet to break above the +50 level
2011-02-15 16:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCSUM continues to reflect a very strong market place here
2011-02-15 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking our line of vision to the left of the MCSUM chart
2011-02-15 16:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see that we have multiple gaps to the downside that we are now attempting to overcome
2011-02-15 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2011-02-15 16:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're also at the +1000 level that tends to points of resistance
2011-02-15 16:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other important item here in the bulls favor here
2011-02-15 16:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is unlike several of the MCO's we've reviewed so far
2011-02-15 16:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last high here on the MID breadth MCO did make a higher high
2011-02-15 16:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's unlikely that we're going to see a price top over the short term
2011-02-15 16:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of situation with the SML breadth MCO
2011-02-15 16:46:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the SML breadth MCSUM is in no way showing the strength of trend as the MID MCSUM is showing
2011-02-15 16:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if one were to try to label the current structure in the SML
2011-02-15 16:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one might say that we've just finished a iii of V situation
2011-02-15 16:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether or not that's the exact "count" is up for debate
2011-02-15 16:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it has the "right fit" based on the internals
2011-02-15 16:47:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: want to check something...one moment
2011-02-15 16:47:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I see that count in some stocks, as well
2011-02-15 16:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the longer term chart of the SML
2011-02-15 16:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now 12 points away from its all time highs
2011-02-15 16:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...it could be a situation of "regrouping before the final assault"
2011-02-15 16:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also an echo effect of the common only A/D data
2011-02-15 16:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too soon to really say for sure
2011-02-15 16:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's out there for digestion
2011-02-15 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO is also back to its zero line
2011-02-15 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the TM breadth MCSUM at its own resistance area of around the +500 level
2011-02-15 16:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-02-15 16:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many of the breadth MCO's at their zero lines
2011-02-15 16:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect a near term bounce higher off this same demarcation point on Wednesday
2011-02-15 16:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: HOW we bounce will now take on greater significance given our not being able to move above overhead resistance in the MCO's over the last couple of days
2011-02-15 16:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as
2011-02-15 16:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leaving with a top beneath a top in several of the large cap related MCO's
2011-02-15 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: growth stocks remain in good shape as measured by the NDX and MID
2011-02-15 16:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might be looking at a bit of rotation short term
2011-02-15 16:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe...traders banking some profits until whatever is bothering the market is cleared up
2011-02-15 16:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move to the sector breadth data charts to see if we see any clues there
2011-02-15 16:53:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: fwiw, I have AAPL one step behind in the count-4 of 3 here
2011-02-15 16:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...as anticipated...we did get a lot of conviction over the last week with the discretionaries
2011-02-15 16:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this thrust in the XLY breadth MCO was enough to power the XLY breadth MCSUM above its intermediate term declining tops line
2011-02-15 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to AAPL for a moment
2011-02-15 16:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would NOT expect this issue to lead to top and then lead to the downside
2011-02-15 16:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-02-15 16:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since it's been the market leader
2011-02-15 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will probably be one of the last to join any party to any correction
2011-02-15 16:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as money will tend to go to what got us there when in a pinch to invest
2011-02-15 16:56:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed, I think that's where the money will rotate to-at least some of it, and the /NDX strength may portend this
2011-02-15 16:56:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so be careful if you're looking for a breakdown there to crack the wall enough to reverse direction
2011-02-15 16:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2011-02-15 16:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be looking at the smaller boats in the back of the marina
2011-02-15 16:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ones in which no really cares about unless they have to put money into areas that haven't been recognized as being that of value
2011-02-15 16:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the yachts, like AAPL, will always have first dibs on the prime berths where water is plentiful
2011-02-15 16:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact...
2011-02-15 16:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the trend were to change to lower
2011-02-15 16:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of any profits one might get on this change of direction, using AAPL as a proxy, will probably lose up to 70% of the entire sequence
2011-02-15 16:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to play this smart
2011-02-15 16:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not look at what everyone else is basing their decision making on
2011-02-15 16:59:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Dell up 6% tonight
2011-02-15 17:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always very easy to focus on issues that the market wants you to focus on
2011-02-15 17:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I heard they had blow out earnings
2011-02-15 17:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not surprised
2011-02-15 17:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not one of you should either
2011-02-15 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the NDX!
2011-02-15 17:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the TECH stocks!
2011-02-15 17:00:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: they did, and cnbc tried to poo poo it, LOL-guess they don't own any
2011-02-15 17:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why would ANYONE be surprised at Dell's earnings...except the pin heads in their ivory towers
2011-02-15 17:01:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I bought calls into the close
2011-02-15 17:01:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: "the easy button"
2011-02-15 17:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who make hundreds of thousands of dollars by being wrong more than half the time!!
2011-02-15 17:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...that's my vent of the day
2011-02-15 17:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2011-02-15 17:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: listen to the market...not analysts
2011-02-15 17:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP continues to struggle here
2011-02-15 17:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now in danger of a small Summation Failure
2011-02-15 17:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short term, though, things are holding together
2011-02-15 17:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bulls REALLY need to pick up the pace here short term
2011-02-15 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as was the anticipation of a week ago
2011-02-15 17:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO and MCSUM of the XLE is now showing a reversal in money flow
2011-02-15 17:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this doesn't mean that the uptrend in prices is over as yet
2011-02-15 17:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF remains strong here
2011-02-15 17:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breaking out above its April highs on Friday
2011-02-15 17:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is just consolidating those gains in and around Friday's close
2011-02-15 17:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to imagine that the broader market would actually top out here with this kind of strength
2011-02-15 17:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCSUM is now up against the +500 level
2011-02-15 17:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless it can blow through this level in quick fashion
2011-02-15 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably looking at some sort of exhaustion with this sector
2011-02-15 17:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...
2011-02-15 17:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI data is a monster here
2011-02-15 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLI breadth MCSUM now at the +1500 level
2011-02-15 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's unlikely we're going to see a price top in the Dow for a while
2011-02-15 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would also like to reinforce the observation
2011-02-15 17:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we see that many of the MCSUM's are finding their resistance points at the "rule of 250's"
2011-02-15 17:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +500
2011-02-15 17:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +750
2011-02-15 17:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +1000
2011-02-15 17:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +1250
2011-02-15 17:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here with +1500
2011-02-15 17:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are important levels for breadth analysis
2011-02-15 17:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we should always anticipate a challenge when the MCSUM reaches these same levels
2011-02-15 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if it's able to move through these areas
2011-02-15 17:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next objective tends to be the next 250 level
2011-02-15 17:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then...
2011-02-15 17:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each 250 level means something for prices themselves
2011-02-15 17:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...it's always fascinating to me how this works so consistently
2011-02-15 17:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB data is flashing a big yellow caution here with its top beneath a top on both the XLB MCO and MCSUM
2011-02-15 17:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this doesn't at all suggest that we run out and short with both hands either
2011-02-15 17:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here you know that any pullback from these potential divergent points will tend to be shallow at best
2011-02-15 17:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here again, we have the XLK breadth MCSUM starting to slow its ascent at it approaches the +1250 level
2011-02-15 17:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Utilities continue to look choppy based on the position of the XLU breadth MCO and its components
2011-02-15 17:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-02-15 17:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that for the first time since the November lows
2011-02-15 17:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the steam that has been pushing the train up the mountain is starting to wane
2011-02-15 17:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that money flow is now starting to exhaust itself
2011-02-15 17:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that all of the willing buyers are probably in the market now
2011-02-15 17:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is actually the case
2011-02-15 17:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should finally start to see all of the breadth MCO's move back below their zero lines to change the direction of their MCSUM's
2011-02-15 17:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being that many of the MCSUM's are well above their +500 level
2011-02-15 17:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will, under this scenario, continue to show a great deal of buoyancy, and more than likely, will continue to make higher highs for the next 2-4 weeks
2011-02-15 17:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will lead us into the mid March period
2011-02-15 17:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...btw
2011-02-15 17:18:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Divergent high in March....
2011-02-15 17:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe....
2011-02-15 17:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...this is just idle speculation here
2011-02-15 17:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing to get too excited about at this juncture
2011-02-15 17:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's really the first time that I"m sensing something different here
2011-02-15 17:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll see
2011-02-15 17:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the BTW
2011-02-15 17:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be on the road for two trade shows in March
2011-02-15 17:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be in St. Louis the week of the 7th
2011-02-15 17:19:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then I will be in.....
2011-02-15 17:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: drum roll please...
2011-02-15 17:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Las Vegas the week of the 21st
2011-02-15 17:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now for those who don't know
2011-02-15 17:20:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: UH OH
2011-02-15 17:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when I go to Las Vegas for business
2011-02-15 17:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something important tends to happen in the markets
2011-02-15 17:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tops...bottoms...this kind of thing
2011-02-15 17:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so mark your calendars!
2011-02-15 17:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of my trips
2011-02-15 17:21:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: man, that's an understatement, LOL
2011-02-15 17:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will be adjustments to our chats next month
2011-02-15 17:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-02-15 17:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with my new handy dandy iPhone
2011-02-15 17:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be able to go online anywhere I have wifi
2011-02-15 17:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in St. Louis...I know my hotel has free wifi
2011-02-15 17:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll play it by ear
2011-02-15 17:22:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also means
2011-02-15 17:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there's anyone who is going to be in one of these cities during those times
2011-02-15 17:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and would like to get together
2011-02-15 17:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: write me privately
2011-02-15 17:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll talk more about this at the end of the month
2011-02-15 17:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you have been duly warned!
2011-02-15 17:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-02-15 17:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me a moment and we'll look at the volume McClellan's
2011-02-15 17:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...back
2011-02-15 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO is also back to its zero line
2011-02-15 17:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see a lack of conviction by the bulls with the CO NYSE volume MCSUM
2011-02-15 17:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottoms above bottoms continue to control the action
2011-02-15 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if this MCO goes below its zero line the components are not likely to
2011-02-15 17:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it could be time for another pause
2011-02-15 17:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the composite NYSE volume MCO and MCSUM
2011-02-15 17:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ volume MCO is now back below its zero line
2011-02-15 17:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ volume MCSUM finding resistance right at the +1000 level (amazing)
2011-02-15 17:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components though remain above their zero line
2011-02-15 17:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might be in for a correction here...a pause to refresh
2011-02-15 17:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike its breadth cousin, the NDX volume MCO is showing problems here of late
2011-02-15 17:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll need another day or two of action to see how important this is
2011-02-15 17:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the MCO zero line for the SPX
2011-02-15 17:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX showing a little more weakness
2011-02-15 17:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow volume MCO showing quite a bit of near term weakness here
2011-02-15 17:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume components also suggest a bounce higher on Wednesday
2011-02-15 17:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nothing wrong still with the MID volume data
2011-02-15 17:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing
2011-02-15 17:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nor with the SML volume data
2011-02-15 17:33:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after a bounce of its zero line on Friday, the TM volume MCO is now below its zero line
2011-02-15 17:34:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and entitled to a snapback to or towards the zero line tomorrow
2011-02-15 17:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-02-15 17:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we have a market that is quite fatigued here
2011-02-15 17:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless we get a new injection of fresh money
2011-02-15 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we may be finally looking at a more prolonged indecision price pattern developing
2011-02-15 17:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something more like the November consolidation
2011-02-15 17:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing here in all this is that there isn't as yet enough to reverse the current uptrend in prices
2011-02-15 17:36:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we don't get this injection
2011-02-15 17:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will likely have a choppy high level consolidation
2011-02-15 17:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no trend development at all for the bears
2011-02-15 17:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now neutral
2011-02-15 17:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are ALSO neutral
2011-02-15 17:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so they are no longer "overbought"
2011-02-15 17:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's continue to suggest a strong uptrend...no breakdown as yet
2011-02-15 17:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .86
2011-02-15 17:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .99
2011-02-15 17:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not exactly "oversold", but more importantly, nothing indicative a tradable top
2011-02-15 17:39:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a nice couple of days for day traders though
2011-02-15 17:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ Trin at 1.31
2011-02-15 17:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91
2011-02-15 17:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2011-02-15 17:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.18
2011-02-15 17:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95
2011-02-15 17:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-02-15 17:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would rate the market as a hold
2011-02-15 17:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no new buying until we get a little more information
2011-02-15 17:40:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no new selling either
2011-02-15 17:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: set stops
2011-02-15 17:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and obey them
2011-02-15 17:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have profits, and stops are hit, "Thank you very much"
2011-02-15 17:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to go to cash until we get more information
2011-02-15 17:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the path of least resistance remaining with the bulls...
2011-02-15 17:42:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should be the case for at least another 2-4 weeks
2011-02-15 17:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to extend the trend into the last spring
2011-02-15 17:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to see fresh money come in within a week
2011-02-15 17:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we don't get it
2011-02-15 17:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be looking for an April top
2011-02-15 17:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-02-15 17:43:52 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Thank you, this was great as usual
2011-02-15 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...no matter what happens, it would appear that we are finally getting some information that will tend to be more exciting to review instead of the same old, same old that we've had for the last 2 months
2011-02-15 17:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm tired of sounding like a broken record
2011-02-15 17:45:17 [Message] tracca -> Chat: nothing is boring in the markets
2011-02-15 17:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very true
2011-02-15 17:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but having the same data day after day, as a technician, can tend to keep you from being sharp
2011-02-15 17:46:06 [Message] tracca -> Chat: we will trade accordingly
2011-02-15 17:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you let your guard down...and you'll usually get bitten
2011-02-15 17:46:36 [Message] tracca -> Chat: just at the most comfortable time
2011-02-15 17:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right
2011-02-15 17:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's something to watch for
2011-02-15 17:46:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we continue to grind higher
2011-02-15 17:47:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the internals continue to weaken
2011-02-15 17:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more bears we get moving to the bull side during this time
2011-02-15 17:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better the chance of a top
2011-02-15 17:47:48 [Message] tracca -> Chat: we need to watch the sentiment
2011-02-15 17:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes you can learn so much just by sitting back and read what others are posting
2011-02-15 17:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-02-15 17:48:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially from those who have steadfastly remained bearish all during this advance
2011-02-15 17:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then either throw in the towel...or become bull cheerleaders
2011-02-15 17:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we've talked about many times in the past
2011-02-15 17:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes a bit of time to turn the "cruise ship" around
2011-02-15 17:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will have plenty of time to go the other way IF the market instructs us to do so
2011-02-15 17:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch the rotation
2011-02-15 17:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch which sectors start to lag and which ones start to lead
2011-02-15 17:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market always talks in whispers
2011-02-15 17:50:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I've been very focused on rotation, it pays
2011-02-15 17:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's our job to keep listening
2011-02-15 17:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-02-15 17:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem though in the last several months
2011-02-15 17:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that there has been so much money in the market
2011-02-15 17:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it blurs this rotation
2011-02-15 17:50:38 [Message] tracca -> Chat: At Marketwatch.com Community Sentiment for S&P 400 is 98% BEARISH!!
2011-02-15 17:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really?
2011-02-15 17:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-02-15 17:50:55 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I can't copy and paste
2011-02-15 17:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's OK...
2011-02-15 17:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID is at all time highs
2011-02-15 17:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sentiment is 98% bearish?
2011-02-15 17:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really?
2011-02-15 17:51:31 [Message] tracca -> Chat: OEX is 85% Bearish
2011-02-15 17:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too funny
2011-02-15 17:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-02-15 17:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if breadth and volume start to weaken here
2011-02-15 17:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will be plenty of momentum to push prices higher
2011-02-15 17:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add this kind of sentiment
2011-02-15 17:52:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we could on cruise control for a while
2011-02-15 17:52:34 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Marketwatch.com/investing/index/OEX/picks
2011-02-15 17:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THAT is absolutely amazing!
2011-02-15 17:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's enough for a melt up
2011-02-15 17:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know if we can
2011-02-15 17:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the pressure is certainly on the bears here
2011-02-15 17:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just think
2011-02-15 17:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we get a one or two day shake out
2011-02-15 17:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears are going to be all over themselves trying to short this puppy
2011-02-15 17:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we quit tonight
2011-02-15 17:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to be absolutely clear here
2011-02-15 17:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend remains higher
2011-02-15 17:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend is very strong
2011-02-15 17:55:18 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Marketwatch.com/investing/index/MID
2011-02-15 17:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're now getting our first indications that we're getting cracks important enough in the "wall" (or worry)
2011-02-15 17:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so everyone use good judgment here
2011-02-15 17:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and don't be going out and shorting just for the sake of trying to catch a couple of points
2011-02-15 17:56:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-02-15 17:56:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then I'm taking off
2011-02-15 17:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-02-15 17:57:10 [Message] tracca -> Chat: see you Thursday
2011-02-15 17:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things look in Thursday
2011-02-15 17:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night


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