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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-02-01 16:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-02-01 16:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-02-01 16:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-02-01 16:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-02-01 16:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving back below the zero line on Friday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO powered higher today
2011-02-01 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in the process took out the last two reactive highs in the process
2011-02-01 16:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and further follow through tomorrow can then be classified as a "breadth thrust"
2011-02-01 16:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYA price pattern also powered to new reaction highs today
2011-02-01 16:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have a crossover buy signal with the CO MCO components
2011-02-01 16:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO looks to be a bit stronger than the commons
2011-02-01 16:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning that today's rally was broadly based
2011-02-01 16:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we can take out the end December spike seen on the chart
2011-02-01 16:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too can be classified as a breadth thrust
2011-02-01 16:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice as well the divergent bottom we had on Friday
2011-02-01 16:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we had a lower close in price, but the MCO remained above these comparative levels
2011-02-01 16:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice the lack of conviction by the bears over the last couple of weeks with the NYSE breadth MCSUM moving sideways during this time
2011-02-01 16:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and basing just above its +500 level
2011-02-01 16:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ
2011-02-01 16:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as annotated on last weekends cumulative charts
2011-02-01 16:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also showed bullish divergence with price
2011-02-01 16:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as generating "trend divergence" where the NAAD line also pulled up short
2011-02-01 16:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now snapped back to the zero line in the MCO
2011-02-01 16:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remain below the declining tops line that has been controlling the pattern since early December
2011-02-01 16:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice that this zero line test of the MCO is coming just as the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is testing the +250 level
2011-02-01 16:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with these near term divergences in place
2011-02-01 16:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern itself looks to have traced out what is referred to in Elliott analysis as a simple "flat"
2011-02-01 16:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: flats generally form as a pause point in trends that are highly strong in their character
2011-02-01 16:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only "irregular flats" are even stronger still
2011-02-01 16:15:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so based on the action today in the NYSE stocks
2011-02-01 16:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a pretty good bet here that we're likely to see a breakout in the NASDAQ breadth MCO in the next day or so
2011-02-01 16:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will then again take us back up to test the +500 level on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-02-01 16:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from there...we'll see if this time we'll have a different outcome or not
2011-02-01 16:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice strength as well with the NDX breadth MCO
2011-02-01 16:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the January spike the important obstacle to overcome for the bulls
2011-02-01 16:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is now up against its declining tops line
2011-02-01 16:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this could be a good pause point for a snapback to or towards the zero line before we actually attempt to break above this same line of resistance
2011-02-01 16:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, remember that as we talked about last week, that the bulls have the math on their side right now
2011-02-01 16:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any high plurality day of more than 3:1 to the good is likely to show a break out in the MCO to the upside
2011-02-01 16:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO was also able to take out last weeks highs
2011-02-01 16:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this isn't quite enough power as yet to make an important statement
2011-02-01 16:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however...we had a crossover buy in the components today
2011-02-01 16:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...the focus remains with the MCSUM's
2011-02-01 16:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as they continue to move sideways, this suggests that there is very little selling going on right now
2011-02-01 16:23:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the bumper we have between the EMA's right now
2011-02-01 16:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any kind of out of the blue decline will generally be absorbed quite quickly
2011-02-01 16:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like the last two days has shown
2011-02-01 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday was a great buy point as the decline was all based on news
2011-02-01 16:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another spike left behind on the Dow breadth MCO
2011-02-01 16:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a buy spike there
2011-02-01 16:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern is textbook for one
2011-02-01 16:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need now is some follow through above the December/January highs for confirmation
2011-02-01 16:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key for the MID breadth MCO is still the +50 level
2011-02-01 16:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: currently we're at a +24
2011-02-01 16:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a nice buy signal in place on the SML breadth MCO
2011-02-01 16:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SML breadth MCSUM
2011-02-01 16:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see a small fishhook, and then later a ledge pattern, before today's reversal adding more weight to the buy signal
2011-02-01 16:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for confirmation we'll need to see the SML breadth MCSUM move above the ledge highs of last week
2011-02-01 16:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and potential bull divergence in place on the TM breadth MCO and the price pattern
2011-02-01 16:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a cross over buy
2011-02-01 16:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...breadth is now suggesting that a resumption of the uptrend is getting underway
2011-02-01 16:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see if we have confirmation of this with the volume McClellan data
2011-02-01 16:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only a zero line snapback so far in the CO NYSE volume MCO
2011-02-01 16:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we need more conviction there
2011-02-01 16:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor, however, and today's close is just slightly above the declining tops line seen on the chart
2011-02-01 16:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE volume MCO did indeed break above its declining tops line
2011-02-01 16:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO is also at its zero line
2011-02-01 16:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the battle continues there
2011-02-01 16:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our being at the zero line we now have equal balance between the two sides
2011-02-01 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control
2011-02-01 16:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the bears just fumbled their opportunity
2011-02-01 16:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's up to the bulls now to pull a play together
2011-02-01 16:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice volume move in the NDX volume MCO
2011-02-01 16:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it still remains below its recent spike high
2011-02-01 16:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will need to take this out decisively to give a high confidence opinion
2011-02-01 16:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a zero line snapback as well with the SPX volume MCO
2011-02-01 16:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it too has broken perceptively above its declining tops line
2011-02-01 16:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback in the OEX volume MCO
2011-02-01 16:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the we try to hold the +500 level on the OEX volume MCSUM
2011-02-01 16:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a nice thrust as well with the Dow volume MCO
2011-02-01 16:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're in around the zero line here as well
2011-02-01 16:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback on the MID
2011-02-01 16:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but moving to the SML volume MCO and here we have confirmation between it and its breadth cousin
2011-02-01 16:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a high confidence read that we're likely to see a resumption of the current uptrend in the small caps
2011-02-01 16:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a snapback to the zero as well for the TM volume MCO
2011-02-01 16:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-02-01 16:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a nice day for the bulls today
2011-02-01 16:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still have some annoying little problems to contend with near term
2011-02-01 16:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls most important agenda right now is seeing good follow through to today's price breakouts
2011-02-01 16:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise we might be looking another "stair step" event
2011-02-01 16:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: move up...and then churn
2011-02-01 16:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after giving a somewhat "oversold" reading on Friday
2011-02-01 16:44:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CVI's have all rocketed higher but have yet shown any kind of exhaustion
2011-02-01 16:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain neutral
2011-02-01 16:45:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's have now relieved much of their extremes now, but should be continued to be characterized as support a strong uptrend
2011-02-01 16:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .61
2011-02-01 16:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after getting to an highly "oversold" reading of 1.20 on Monday
2011-02-01 16:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Open TRIN remains "oversold" with a reading of 1.12
2011-02-01 16:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to start a downtrend with readings this high
2011-02-01 16:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .86
2011-02-01 16:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .98
2011-02-01 16:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closer to "oversold" than anything else
2011-02-01 16:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .82
2011-02-01 16:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.07 - "oversold"
2011-02-01 16:48:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a place to short
2011-02-01 16:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have hankering to do so, I would suggest sitting on your hands for now
2011-02-01 16:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or subjects you wish to bring up?
2011-02-01 16:54:21 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Thank you for your efforts
2011-02-01 16:54:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I try my best...I hope it has merit
2011-02-01 16:54:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: basically nothing has changed since last Thursday
2011-02-01 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to chop around...with a bullish bias
2011-02-01 16:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully no one here got trapped by Friday's surprise
2011-02-01 16:55:37 [Message] tracca -> Chat: what's your take on silver now?
2011-02-01 16:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially after the discussion we had on the EMA's and how important they are
2011-02-01 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look
2011-02-01 16:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like the counter trend rally is now complete
2011-02-01 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would still favor more downside
2011-02-01 16:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to watch gold here
2011-02-01 16:57:11 [Message] tracca -> Chat: good I am short MVG
2011-02-01 16:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as silver has a tendency to attract those who would want to own gold but can't afford to
2011-02-01 16:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...but the downside is limited
2011-02-01 16:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus the volume pattern near term is bullish
2011-02-01 16:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you have a chart of it up?
2011-02-01 16:58:07 [Message] tracca -> Chat: with tight stops
2011-02-01 16:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's OK..but you have a chart of it in front of you?
2011-02-01 16:58:42 [Message] tracca -> Chat: yes
2011-02-01 16:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you see how the daily up volume surpassing the down volume days during this consolidation?
2011-02-01 16:59:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a sign of inherent strength
2011-02-01 16:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so be careful
2011-02-01 16:59:43 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I am
2011-02-01 16:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stop and reversal is at 10.51
2011-02-01 17:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a little over a half a point
2011-02-01 17:00:19 [Message] tracca -> Chat: That should be lower tonight
2011-02-01 17:00:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overnight doesn't count
2011-02-01 17:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-02-01 17:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in my experience
2011-02-01 17:00:59 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Does your chart have today's data?
2011-02-01 17:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best way to utilize all analytical tools is on a US close only basis for comparisons
2011-02-01 17:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-02-01 17:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can get it
2011-02-01 17:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with my settings...one moment
2011-02-01 17:01:44 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Then the stop should be lower than 10.51
2011-02-01 17:02:13 [Message] tracca -> Chat: wel1, if you are using Parabolic SAR
2011-02-01 17:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/mvg020111.png
2011-02-01 17:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-02-01 17:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now at 10.51
2011-02-01 17:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that the SAR comes in right at the EMA cross
2011-02-01 17:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will take something powerful to move above this area of resistance
2011-02-01 17:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on your side you do have the RSI in your favor
2011-02-01 17:04:05 [Message] tracca -> Chat: yes
2011-02-01 17:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have the strength compared to the SPX
2011-02-01 17:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the ADX
2011-02-01 17:04:37 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I doubt it will go above 10, and below 9.66 will bring me smiles
2011-02-01 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have no trend to speak of
2011-02-01 17:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to be tough going to get below 9.66 with the daily volume
2011-02-01 17:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely...I would look for continued sideways action here
2011-02-01 17:05:30 [Message] tracca -> Chat: that's o.k.
2011-02-01 17:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the volume pattern changes, and chips away at the buyers, then you risk/reward will be better
2011-02-01 17:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it does break
2011-02-01 17:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there should be solid support at the 200 day EMA
2011-02-01 17:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one last point I want to stress to you here
2011-02-01 17:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I will let you speak first
2011-02-01 17:07:09 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Changing the topic; Since we have a higher SP500 and a buy signal in the MCO and components, don't you think the way is somewhat clearer for the bulls?
2011-02-01 17:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more energy that comes in here, yes, the better for the bulls
2011-02-01 17:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember
2011-02-01 17:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing has changed yet
2011-02-01 17:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we have is a powerful uptrend that has its starts and stops
2011-02-01 17:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless we do see the follow through above the MCO points we've been discussing here
2011-02-01 17:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're STILL working off the momentum of the rally from the August lows
2011-02-01 17:08:24 [Message] tracca -> Chat: About MVG I am at small profit, I exit whenever,
2011-02-01 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's fine
2011-02-01 17:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would not expect a large move with the stock
2011-02-01 17:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you shouldn't get hit too hard if it goes against you
2011-02-01 17:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but going back to the EMA's
2011-02-01 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've talked about before
2011-02-01 17:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the objective of a chart pattern, when it is overly extended, to find a way to return to some sort of balance
2011-02-01 17:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this "balance" is measured by the distance of the short term and intermediate term EMA's are in relation to each other
2011-02-01 17:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in strong uptrends
2011-02-01 17:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the objective it to get the shorter term trend to relax enough to test the intermediate term trend
2011-02-01 17:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as you see on the chart right now
2011-02-01 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 20 has just slightly moved below the 50
2011-02-01 17:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically then, any or all excesses are now OUT of the pattern
2011-02-01 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it then begin a resumption of the trend already started
2011-02-01 17:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember the gold chart from last week?
2011-02-01 17:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how we had this same cross
2011-02-01 17:11:39 [Message] tracca -> Chat: yes
2011-02-01 17:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there we broke down...and did so importantly
2011-02-01 17:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we don't have that breakdown as yet
2011-02-01 17:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do have, however, is the potential for a bottom
2011-02-01 17:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the current price consolidation, and the bullish volume pattern with it, the better probability to outcome right now is for the price pattern to move higher
2011-02-01 17:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least test its EMA's
2011-02-01 17:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from there, then you'll have a better handle
2011-02-01 17:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you may be right
2011-02-01 17:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what you don't want to do is over trade either on the idea that since it did move towards its EMA's that you were wrong
2011-02-01 17:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then see the pattern slam to test the 200 day EMA after this natural test
2011-02-01 17:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: consolidations are tough
2011-02-01 17:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you never really know which side is really in control
2011-02-01 17:14:56 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I watch the momentum cycles
2011-02-01 17:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when you technically have a chart that has the potential to form a bottom
2011-02-01 17:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to be careful
2011-02-01 17:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the 13 day RSI put in a nice bottom last week
2011-02-01 17:15:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not doing any kind of fireworks here either off those lows
2011-02-01 17:15:41 [Message] tracca -> Chat: is gold or spx getting bullish?
2011-02-01 17:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SPX is bullish
2011-02-01 17:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold still looks to be correcting
2011-02-01 17:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that may or may not have anything directly to do with a PM stock itself
2011-02-01 17:16:28 [Message] tracca -> Chat: correcting with consolidation
2011-02-01 17:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as PM stocks usually lead the metals by about 2 days
2011-02-01 17:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from what I remember of our discussion on Thursday
2011-02-01 17:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold still has a downside target of 1275
2011-02-01 17:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether it takes silver with it is not really known
2011-02-01 17:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-02-01 17:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I do remember that we had downside target of around 24
2011-02-01 17:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IF it broke below last Monday's intraday lows
2011-02-01 17:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which it still hasn't done
2011-02-01 17:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-02-01 17:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold bugs are different creatures than most
2011-02-01 17:18:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as most of their trades are highly emotionally
2011-02-01 17:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at Friday
2011-02-01 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and before that Thursday
2011-02-01 17:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you needed a seat belt as not to be thrown
2011-02-01 17:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Silver generated a SAR buy yesterday
2011-02-01 17:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is right up against these same EMA's we've been talking about
2011-02-01 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a tough trade to short
2011-02-01 17:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-02-01 17:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all of this discussion
2011-02-01 17:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll probably be OK
2011-02-01 17:20:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just don't get trapped
2011-02-01 17:20:51 [Message] tracca -> Chat: yes, thank you.
2011-02-01 17:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any other ideas or comments??
2011-02-01 17:21:36 [Message] tracca -> Chat: how are the volume MCO's doing?
2011-02-01 17:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're lagging...except for the SML
2011-02-01 17:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have a confirmed buy there
2011-02-01 17:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of them are pretty much at their zero lines
2011-02-01 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're still not in the clear yet for the bulls
2011-02-01 17:22:19 [Message] tracca -> Chat: SML is SP600?
2011-02-01 17:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...small caps...including the RUT
2011-02-01 17:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the volume MCO's still at zero
2011-02-01 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what might happen tomorrow is that we'll have a snapback to or towards the recent highs of last week
2011-02-01 17:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then follow through on Thursday
2011-02-01 17:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2011-02-01 17:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing has changed from the last couple of weeks
2011-02-01 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1315 is the target that Lew was looking for
2011-02-01 17:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I don't see anything different
2011-02-01 17:24:21 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I see 12,160 on the Dow
2011-02-01 17:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we get breakouts in the MCO's above their December highs
2011-02-01 17:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll get much higher objectives to work with
2011-02-01 17:24:33 [Message] tracca -> Chat: you have 495 target for SOX is it very long term?
2011-02-01 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks Tonny
2011-02-01 17:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get a chart objective
2011-02-01 17:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the chart will dictate when and where it will met that objective
2011-02-01 17:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to give any kind of time value defeats the purpose of the objective
2011-02-01 17:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-02-01 17:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think back to last July
2011-02-01 17:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we had the MCO's telling us that we had enough energy to at least challenge the April price highs
2011-02-01 17:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what happened in August?
2011-02-01 17:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a pull back
2011-02-01 17:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we didn't get any new downside objectives to cancel out the April high test
2011-02-01 17:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eventually we did reach that objective
2011-02-01 17:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the September thrust told us that we were going to even surpass those same levels
2011-02-01 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-02-01 17:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we put a time value on this
2011-02-01 17:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would had been pretty sore at the outcome
2011-02-01 17:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a price objective then has absolutely nothing to do with time
2011-02-01 17:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is just an objective created by a trigger in a chart pattern
2011-02-01 17:28:12 [Message] tracca -> Chat: o.k.
2011-02-01 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why you rarely see or hear me give a time value on an objective
2011-02-01 17:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market can do it quickly, or take its time in doing so
2011-02-01 17:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all dependent on what's in the engine
2011-02-01 17:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as the SOX is concerned
2011-02-01 17:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I had to guess
2011-02-01 17:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would say the objective will be reached within the next 4-6 weeks given the potential breadth thrusts
2011-02-01 17:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just now looking at the pattern
2011-02-01 17:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the momentum of today's bar
2011-02-01 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't be surprised if we reach it within 2 weeks
2011-02-01 17:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that is MY guess only and nothing at all to do with the chart
2011-02-01 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a breakaway gap to the upside today
2011-02-01 17:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember what we talked about over and over again
2011-02-01 17:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the job of a strongly trending market to make sure the majority doesn't climb aboard
2011-02-01 17:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it does this with quick, sharp counter trend moves
2011-02-01 17:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just as quickly, take it all back
2011-02-01 17:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leaving those who don't respect the dynamics scratching their proverbial heads...again
2011-02-01 17:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-02-01 17:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trade here remains
2011-02-01 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: long and strong until there is enough evidence to the contrary
2011-02-01 17:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the MCSUM's remain "overbought"
2011-02-01 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any decline will be short lived
2011-02-01 17:34:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and very much like an opening hole on the front line so that a running back to move through it
2011-02-01 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: believe in your indicators
2011-02-01 17:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they don't lie
2011-02-01 17:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-02-01 17:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then I'm going to take off
2011-02-01 17:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a good couple of days
2011-02-01 17:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet again on Thursday
2011-02-01 17:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-02-01 17:37:21 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Thank you Fib


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