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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-01-06 16:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-01-06 16:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-01-06 16:02:35 [Message] lard -> Chat: pretty good
2011-01-06 16:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just pretty good?
2011-01-06 16:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-01-06 16:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you woke up this morning...that's saying something!
2011-01-06 16:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-01-06 16:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..then let's get DP up and we'll get going
2011-01-06 16:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as was the expectation on Tuesday, the NYA price pattern continues to consolidate at these current price levels
2011-01-06 16:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at he CO NYSE breadth MCO
2011-01-06 16:05:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that after tracing out a zig zag pattern convenience, it moved to lower lows today
2011-01-06 16:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components that make up this MCO
2011-01-06 16:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to be above our zero lines on both "Trend" lines
2011-01-06 16:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM itself is showing a high degree of topping action now as it starts to roll over to the downside
2011-01-06 16:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2011-01-06 16:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there isn't indication of a bounce for tomorrow
2011-01-06 16:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so either we continue to chop around
2011-01-06 16:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or depending on what else we see with tonight's data
2011-01-06 16:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be moving into a 1-2 week pause to refresh
2011-01-06 16:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO now has a reading of +2
2011-01-06 16:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce off the zero line here would be the near term expectation
2011-01-06 16:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have the 10% Trend on top of the 5% Trend which would also indicate that a bounce higher would be the near term expectation
2011-01-06 16:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCSUM continues to move higher
2011-01-06 16:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not in a way that would suggest that the bulls have some ammunition behind them
2011-01-06 16:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2011-01-06 16:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're getting what we generally expected on Tuesday
2011-01-06 16:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a consolidation...waiting for possibly Friday's data...with any surprises being to the upside
2011-01-06 16:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO is also at its zero line with a reading of +3
2011-01-06 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not only would a bounce higher off the zero line be indicated near term
2011-01-06 16:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're at point in which we have equal balance between buyers and sellers on a short term (4-6 week) trending basis
2011-01-06 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which just so happens to be a day before an important piece of economic data is released
2011-01-06 16:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (never let it be said that the market doesn't know what it's doing)
2011-01-06 16:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM continues to trudge higher
2011-01-06 16:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finding it hard going to move above both its November highs and the +500 level
2011-01-06 16:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: situations like this do tend to happen at turning points
2011-01-06 16:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it's really up to the bulls, and fresh money in particular, to make a statement of conviction
2011-01-06 16:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now whether the jobs numbers tomorrow will provide this conviction factor or not is yet to be determined
2011-01-06 16:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we talked about on Tuesday
2011-01-06 16:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe that the market participants are zeroing in more on 4th quarter earnings than jobs right now
2011-01-06 16:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of a justification process for the last 4 months of advance
2011-01-06 16:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, of course, future guidance will probably be the key to any new fresh funds finding their way into the market
2011-01-06 16:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the NASDAQ composite, the NDX price chart pattern moved to new highs today
2011-01-06 16:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a small point change on the NDX breadth MCO today
2011-01-06 16:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NDX breadth MCSUM is now coming into our natural support of the +500 level
2011-01-06 16:18:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here we might be in a position to turn sharply higher in money flow
2011-01-06 16:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the bears have shown little in the way of selling conviction by the close postings of the NDX breadth MCSUM over the last month
2011-01-06 16:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO moved a little more south today
2011-01-06 16:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now has a reading of -13
2011-01-06 16:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still not enough for the bears to take control here
2011-01-06 16:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the SPX breadth MCSUM still within range of its +750 level
2011-01-06 16:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can really go either way near term
2011-01-06 16:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX MCO components, however, continue to suggest corrective activity
2011-01-06 16:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if we do see downside follow through in the SPX breadth MCO tomorrow
2011-01-06 16:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would still be part of a larger digestion period for the current price structure
2011-01-06 16:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note we had a mid range close today on the cash SPX
2011-01-06 16:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with yesterday being an up day
2011-01-06 16:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might suggest a down CLOSE on Friday
2011-01-06 16:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be 10 points...could be only 1
2011-01-06 16:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO still remains above its zero line with a close today of +8
2011-01-06 16:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that any money coming in remains focused on issues that provide a stable return on capital
2011-01-06 16:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO again found resistance at its November highs
2011-01-06 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the price pattern consolidating with an upside bias to its structure
2011-01-06 16:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and actually, today's mid range close, the pattern is now starting to look like a triangle
2011-01-06 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we may not get the desired push either way on tomorrows numbers if the Dow is any indication
2011-01-06 16:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the high degree of chop in the MID price pattern now
2011-01-06 16:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID breadth MCO is basically echoing this current area of indecision
2011-01-06 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MID breadth MCSUM
2011-01-06 16:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it now becomes very important that the bulls make a stand right here, right now, or they will likely lose their pattern advantage
2011-01-06 16:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...like much of the market...it can go either way
2011-01-06 16:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the SML data
2011-01-06 16:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO is also at or near its zero line now with a +2 reading
2011-01-06 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...the table is set
2011-01-06 16:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're about as neutral as you can get on a short term trending basis
2011-01-06 16:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the intermediate term fully, if not highly, "overbought"
2011-01-06 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might be time for a short term shake out
2011-01-06 16:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's not a high confidence in this as yet
2011-01-06 16:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to wait for that all important trigger to know for sure
2011-01-06 16:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on to the breadth sector charts
2011-01-06 16:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY is pretty much mimicking the rest of the market
2011-01-06 16:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLP is now looking like a price top is in
2011-01-06 16:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any break below the 29 level giving confirmation
2011-01-06 16:32:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...we don't know exactly how important this top might be as yet
2011-01-06 16:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given that structure of the XLP breadth MCSUM
2011-01-06 16:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear to be one of a short term nature - a time of digestion
2011-01-06 16:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with initially the 28 level providing good support
2011-01-06 16:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's not much there to trade on
2011-01-06 16:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCSUM is also looking like it wants to top out here
2011-01-06 16:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the trigger there coming in below the December low point seen on the chart
2011-01-06 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you can see
2011-01-06 16:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO is below its zero line while its components are not
2011-01-06 16:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any kind of sag here will be more in the consolidation mode than that of an important top
2011-01-06 16:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 65 level providing solid support for the near term
2011-01-06 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a great day for the XLF sector
2011-01-06 16:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not a bad one either
2011-01-06 16:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of looks like it has apathy
2011-01-06 16:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the MCO and its components out of sync
2011-01-06 16:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't worry too much of a top or a turn in trend at this point
2011-01-06 16:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably just a case of "sympathy pains" with the rest of the market
2011-01-06 16:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV has showed some nice strength over the last couple of days just when it needed to do so
2011-01-06 16:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we can continue to see upside follow through here
2011-01-06 16:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would save this sector from the potential of a Summation Failure pattern and thereby would keep the ball rolling for the bulls
2011-01-06 16:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tomorrow, however, becomes near term important
2011-01-06 16:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since both the XLV breadth MCO, and both its components, are right at their zero lines after providing technical snapbacks
2011-01-06 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be interesting what the outcome might turn out to be
2011-01-06 16:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds say that we won't move back above the zero line given the length of time that the XLV breadth MCSUM has been above its zero line
2011-01-06 16:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you really never know in situations like this, when there is both short term and intermediate term balance between buyers and sellers, and who's going to eventually take the baton and run with it
2011-01-06 16:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO is highly congested here
2011-01-06 16:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can this lack of decisive behavior by looking at the near horizontal movement of the XLI breadth MCSUM over the last month
2011-01-06 16:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB data continues to show short term "unwinding" behavior
2011-01-06 16:43:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not enough to call it a sell...so probably prudent to call it a "pause to refresh"
2011-01-06 16:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and moving to the XLK
2011-01-06 16:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we know where the NASDAQ and NDX got their strength today
2011-01-06 16:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's with the technology group
2011-01-06 16:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important for the bulls now to flex their muscle and drive the MCSUM pattern back above the +750 level as quickly as possible
2011-01-06 16:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCO, and it's components, are also indicating that a near term position of power play is about to take place
2011-01-06 16:46:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-01-06 16:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we said before
2011-01-06 16:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the table is set
2011-01-06 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the dishes are ready
2011-01-06 16:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now its time to see who's going to belly up
2011-01-06 16:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a word of caution here
2011-01-06 16:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be careful in leading off
2011-01-06 16:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would also be careful on believing that which direction the market is going to take in the first hour of trading
2011-01-06 16:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a short term basis we could literally go either way
2011-01-06 16:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on an intermediate term basis any sell offs that might occur are going to be absorbed pretty easily near term
2011-01-06 16:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would wait until Europe closes before making any important decisions to your portfolio
2011-01-06 16:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and preferably
2011-01-06 16:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after 14:00 eastern when everyone comes back from lunch
2011-01-06 16:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-01-06 16:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as an aside
2011-01-06 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a snow storm due to hit Manhattan at noon time tomorrow
2011-01-06 16:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it could be that much of any trading we'll see for the day will be done before lunch
2011-01-06 16:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many leaving at lunch for the day
2011-01-06 16:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all depending, of course
2011-01-06 16:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the memories of big storm of a week ago still fresh
2011-01-06 16:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I was there, and we had another 4-8 inches coming...I would take off for the day ASAP
2011-01-06 16:51:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on to the volume McClellan's
2011-01-06 16:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE volume MCO is right at its zero line
2011-01-06 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a small point (upward) change on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2011-01-06 16:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah oh
2011-01-06 16:53:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCO moved to new highs today and is now at its highest level since mid November
2011-01-06 16:53:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something like this confirms today's price highs in the NDX price chart as being valid
2011-01-06 16:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the implication that, after moving in and around the +500 level for over a month, the resolution to this pattern now looks to be to the upside
2011-01-06 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would stay away from shorting here
2011-01-06 16:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless
2011-01-06 16:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see a hard, and I mean HARD, reversal in the next two trading days
2011-01-06 16:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like overwhelming downside volume
2011-01-06 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like 6:1 negative or higher
2011-01-06 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as was our expectation on Tuesday, the OEX volume MCSUM was finally able to take out its November highs today
2011-01-06 16:57:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: joining all but the COMPQ, NDX, and total market indices in doing so
2011-01-06 16:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2011-01-06 16:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE group of stocks are showing the better all around strength at this time as compared with the secondary market (NASDAQ)
2011-01-06 16:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the NDX volume MCO moving sharply higher today
2011-01-06 16:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be seeing either the beginning of an allocation switch
2011-01-06 16:59:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or that the secondaries are about to play catch up with the primaries
2011-01-06 16:59:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...so this is what we have here
2011-01-06 17:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth of market is suggesting that the amount of money moving into the markets is starting to lose its trending characteristics on a short and intermediate term basis
2011-01-06 17:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2011-01-06 17:00:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume plurality continues to confirm the higher price highs in the indexes themselves
2011-01-06 17:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall this would suggest that although money continues to invest in the market
2011-01-06 17:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its now starting to be a little more selective on where its being placed
2011-01-06 17:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this continues
2011-01-06 17:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is to say'
2011-01-06 17:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the short term trend starts to move negatively (the MCO below the zero line)
2011-01-06 17:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the volume area remains buoyant
2011-01-06 17:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than this suggests that much of the money that is going in is going into issues that are weighted enough to drive prices with an upward bias
2011-01-06 17:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: weighted averages are a pain, but with this methodology, it really does help in determining when things like this are occurring
2011-01-06 17:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions or comments??
2011-01-06 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone is comfortable with this?
2011-01-06 17:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then I will go on to the volume oscillators
2011-01-06 17:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not surprisingly, the CVI's are dead neutral
2011-01-06 17:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control
2011-01-06 17:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall, the STVO's remain bullish, but not frothy
2011-01-06 17:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's continue to suggest a strong uptrend
2011-01-06 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...interesting
2011-01-06 17:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.34
2011-01-06 17:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95
2011-01-06 17:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-01-06 17:07:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the bullish side of neutral now
2011-01-06 17:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ TRIN, however, is beating to a different drum, with a reading of .55
2011-01-06 17:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .75
2011-01-06 17:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "overbought"
2011-01-06 17:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .72
2011-01-06 17:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .83
2011-01-06 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close to minimally "overbought", but still with a little room still yet to go
2011-01-06 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: place your bets ladies and gentlemen
2011-01-06 17:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but don't think about going "all in"
2011-01-06 17:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: over all
2011-01-06 17:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain in control
2011-01-06 17:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they are cracks showing up that are still small enough to be mended
2011-01-06 17:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's their ballgame
2011-01-06 17:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with some of the data suggesting that this would be a good time to show up and play their card
2011-01-06 17:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OEX PC ratio on 10 day basis continues to suggest more upside
2011-01-06 17:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the equity and CBOE versions are pretty frothy here
2011-01-06 17:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the volatility indexes, with a 20 day period Bollinger Band, and we are being squeezed right now
2011-01-06 17:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so something big is about to take place
2011-01-06 17:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could go either way as we shouldn't assume that this kind of squeeze can only go one way
2011-01-06 17:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it coiling
2011-01-06 17:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're indecisive and getting close to clarity
2011-01-06 17:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what else is on your collective minds?
2011-01-06 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trading ideas?
2011-01-06 17:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or are you all worn out
2011-01-06 17:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-01-06 17:14:37 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thinking
2011-01-06 17:14:48 [Message] gman -> Chat: I'm guessing folks have gone to dinner
2011-01-06 17:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe
2011-01-06 17:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or to sleep
2011-01-06 17:15:11 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2011-01-06 17:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main thing here is
2011-01-06 17:15:22 [Message] gman -> Chat: lol
2011-01-06 17:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're perplexed...you're in good company right now
2011-01-06 17:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so don't think that you've lost your touch
2011-01-06 17:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is one of those grinding up affairs
2011-01-06 17:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where there is so much money supporting prices
2011-01-06 17:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that there just isn't anyone there to give it up right now
2011-01-06 17:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we just tend to float higher
2011-01-06 17:17:06 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I tend to focus on the bearish divergence on NYSE MCO and the trendline break there which was back tested yesterday. It usually means a few days down. That said I had expected more down side today
2011-01-06 17:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: It could mean that
2011-01-06 17:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as you have learned over the last couple of months
2011-01-06 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCSUM is at lofty levels as it is right now
2011-01-06 17:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very difficult for the sellers to mount up anything more than an intraday rout
2011-01-06 17:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sharp and fast
2011-01-06 17:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with little or no staying power
2011-01-06 17:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-01-06 17:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCSUM's were closer to their zero lines
2011-01-06 17:18:36 [Message] gman -> Chat: Dave, have you put together an Elliott wave chart together recently (I'm not one that does EW very well, just curious what your thinking is right now)
2011-01-06 17:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THEN you would see multiple correctional days
2011-01-06 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I haven't played with Elliott lately
2011-01-06 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what I do know is that under the guidelines of Elliott
2011-01-06 17:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will ALWAYS see the best in both breadth and volume plurality during 3rd wave sequences
2011-01-06 17:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so..for now...we're in a 3rd wave on one degree or the other
2011-01-06 17:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more than likely
2011-01-06 17:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we don't have divergence in the A/D lines as yet
2011-01-06 17:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're starting to lose upside momentum on both the MCO and MCSUM's
2011-01-06 17:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're more than likely in the final phases of this same 3rd wave...in a 5th wave subset
2011-01-06 17:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we could also extend here
2011-01-06 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: problem is
2011-01-06 17:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that there is too much liquidity right now to give "clean" structural counts
2011-01-06 17:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have to rely on the main backbone of Elliott...and that is psychology that is accompanies it
2011-01-06 17:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on one hand...some sentiment polls are pretty bullish right now
2011-01-06 17:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so are the put/call ration on the equity side
2011-01-06 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the other side of this coin
2011-01-06 17:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the top 100 stocks, the OEX, are showing too many put buyers right now
2011-01-06 17:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and things like this is all the bull needs to feed on
2011-01-06 17:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see this with the higher highs in the volume MCSUM's as well
2011-01-06 17:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...putting those two together
2011-01-06 17:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that the OEX put buying is being done as an insurance play while capital is moving into these same basket of stocks
2011-01-06 17:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as options were developed to do...provide insurance
2011-01-06 17:24:16 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Fib, I understand that it can go either ways, but the sellers' damage can only be intraday. Does this mean it is either upwards or choppy?
2011-01-06 17:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains, overall, to the upside
2011-01-06 17:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would mean that any or all surprises will continue to be in this direction
2011-01-06 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example, like yesterday
2011-01-06 17:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds suggest, however, that we are way overdue for some sort of multi week price decay...or selling
2011-01-06 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with liquidity levels so high, this money has to go somewhere
2011-01-06 17:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in some cases - it MUST be invested at all times
2011-01-06 17:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now..undervalued wise
2011-01-06 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that this money would find a nice home with the debt sector
2011-01-06 17:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and over the last couple of days this seems to be what's going on
2011-01-06 17:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-01-06 17:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Gary Smith shared elsewhere that the junk bond funds are back to all time highs now
2011-01-06 17:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important implication there is
2011-01-06 17:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there must be so much cash out there that even those issues that are less deserving are being picked up
2011-01-06 17:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the risk factor for a economic collapse is just about nil
2011-01-06 17:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember too
2011-01-06 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this is just another asset class
2011-01-06 17:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as each asset class dances to their own tempo
2011-01-06 17:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they rarely dance together in the same hall
2011-01-06 17:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's always interesting to me how many people decide that everything moves in concert with each other
2011-01-06 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take gold and commodities this week
2011-01-06 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or gold and stocks
2011-01-06 17:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: earlier in the week, when gold was down $40
2011-01-06 17:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the consensus was that stocks would have to follow
2011-01-06 17:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we closed higher yesterday
2011-01-06 17:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just consolidated those gains today
2011-01-06 17:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every asset class moves under its own power source
2011-01-06 17:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should never be assumed otherwise
2011-01-06 17:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of goes under the file heading of
2011-01-06 17:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "an economist seeing something happen, and then wonders if it works in theory"
2011-01-06 17:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't
2011-01-06 17:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it makes for good discussion
2011-01-06 17:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-01-06 17:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me upload the combo charts so we can see how things look
2011-01-06 17:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first the NAAD - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/naad010611.png
2011-01-06 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the most glaring point of the combo chart currently is the overhead gap resistance zone on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-01-06 17:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend itself remains higher
2011-01-06 17:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's interesting to note that the NASDAQ breadth MCO is moving back and forth around its zero line just under the ceiling of this gap zone of resistance
2011-01-06 17:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're dealing with an important juncture here in this respect
2011-01-06 17:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will the bulls find a way to break above this last area of resistance that was created by the April/May 2010 topping period or will we have enough of a push to keep the trend moving even higher??
2011-01-06 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottoms above bottoms continue to control the direction of the NAAD line itself
2011-01-06 17:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you have to give the benefit of any doubt to the bulls
2011-01-06 17:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we see a top, and then a top beneath a top, the path of LEAST RESISTANCE remains to the upside
2011-01-06 17:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here's the NYAD data - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/nyad010611.png
2011-01-06 17:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now here the NYSE breadth MCSUM is not nearly showing the kind of upward strength it did back in middle part of last year
2011-01-06 17:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's high enough were the two EMA's that measure the NYAD line chart are wide enough where any short term decline in the NYAD line itself will find various areas of support that will need to be violated before a change in trend can actually occur
2011-01-06 17:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-01-06 17:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the NAAD line
2011-01-06 17:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the balance of power remains with the bulls
2011-01-06 17:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the path of LEAST RESISTANCE remaining higher
2011-01-06 17:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THIS IS WHY the market can't decline
2011-01-06 17:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even with a negative MCO
2011-01-06 17:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is really showing us that we're overextended here
2011-01-06 17:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would be very difficult to stretch the rubber band any further
2011-01-06 17:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be done, but its' not LIKELY to
2011-01-06 17:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in the bigger picture
2011-01-06 17:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not important enough to worry about...at least for now
2011-01-06 17:43:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend of money flow is up
2011-01-06 17:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all that's important
2011-01-06 17:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why
2011-01-06 17:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you do wish to trade against this overwhelming tide
2011-01-06 17:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not an easy trade to be successful at
2011-01-06 17:45:55 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: We are at important Fib levels at the major indices. NYSE at 61.8 retracement from 2007 top. NDX at 1.618 extension from April high to July low. SPX at 1.27 extension from April top to July low.
2011-01-06 17:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-01-06 17:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will take a tremendous effort to violate these Fibonacci retracement levels
2011-01-06 17:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2011-01-06 17:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do move higher from here will be quite dramatic
2011-01-06 17:47:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and leave little to any doubt on the direction of the larger trend
2011-01-06 17:47:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember also
2011-01-06 17:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during Elliott 3rd wave structures
2011-01-06 17:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are classified as having "undeniable" trend characteristics
2011-01-06 17:48:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can only happen when key areas of either support or resistance are violated so that the majority understands its meaning
2011-01-06 17:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually what happens is
2011-01-06 17:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the center point of a 3rd wave - what's called the "point of recognition" - where we see this sudden shift in both opinion and the amplitude of the trend itself
2011-01-06 17:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with these Fibonacci resistance areas being what many analysts are keying in on
2011-01-06 17:50:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with the overhead resistance points in such things as the NAAD breadth MCSUM
2011-01-06 17:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this all comes together in a point in which the opposition either holds or fails to hold on to what was the previous prevailing trend
2011-01-06 17:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case
2011-01-06 17:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the prevailing trend has generally been, even up to this point, a bear market from the 2007 highs
2011-01-06 17:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the bulls get the incentive to push higher from here and break these levels of negative bias
2011-01-06 17:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will then move more freely within this same longer term trending structure
2011-01-06 17:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2011-01-06 17:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right at the epicenter...or so it would seem
2011-01-06 17:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: place your bets
2011-01-06 17:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...as a technician
2011-01-06 17:52:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you should be excited here
2011-01-06 17:52:35 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: What are the chances of fake outs of day's duration?
2011-01-06 17:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because something big is probably about to take place
2011-01-06 17:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard question to answer
2011-01-06 17:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why I would wait until after lunch - or maybe Monday - after whatever news is given tomorrow for consumption is digested
2011-01-06 17:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the main point here is that
2011-01-06 17:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you believe that this is a point in which we're likely to top because of Fib resistance or high sentiment numbers
2011-01-06 17:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are only cheating yourself from exploiting a confirmed outcome
2011-01-06 17:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important to remain like the market right now
2011-01-06 17:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2011-01-06 17:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while remembering
2011-01-06 17:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if we decline tomorrow on the news
2011-01-06 17:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that we're going to trend lower as yet
2011-01-06 17:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2011-01-06 17:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have more than a 2 day pull back or rest period
2011-01-06 17:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the tide is with the bulls, not the bears
2011-01-06 17:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they still have very little power here to work with
2011-01-06 17:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you are only one opinion
2011-01-06 17:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with very little to do with anything to the liquidity pool
2011-01-06 17:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like spitting in an ocean
2011-01-06 17:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have no power here
2011-01-06 17:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: patience
2011-01-06 17:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: know what your odds are
2011-01-06 17:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and watch...then follow the money
2011-01-06 17:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's an old adage in this business
2011-01-06 17:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might be very right about where you believe that market might be going
2011-01-06 17:57:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but your TIMING might be very wrong
2011-01-06 17:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: patience
2011-01-06 17:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the path of least resistance higher
2011-01-06 17:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it shouldn't matter to you whether the market agrees with you or not
2011-01-06 17:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are only here to make money on a consistent basis
2011-01-06 17:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's your business
2011-01-06 17:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: personal example - I deal in fashion
2011-01-06 17:58:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I think the color brown is going to be big for spring because the economy sucks
2011-01-06 17:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the public would rather have hot pink
2011-01-06 17:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm screwed
2011-01-06 17:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and stuck with inventory that I may be able to sell in the future...or not
2011-01-06 17:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2011-01-06 17:59:55 [Message] gman -> Chat: yep
2011-01-06 18:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to stay in cash then to risk your hard earned money to what you feel
2011-01-06 18:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2011-01-06 18:00:36 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you very informative
2011-01-06 18:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pleasure...
2011-01-06 18:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes in this business
2011-01-06 18:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's better to hold your nose than it would be to lose it
2011-01-06 18:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that
2011-01-06 18:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I"m going to take off
2011-01-06 18:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-01-06 18:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Tuesday
2011-01-06 18:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-01-06 18:02:00 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Good night. Thanks!

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