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Posts: 5,161
Reply with quote  #1 
2016-01-05 16:00:12 fib1618: good day
2016-01-05 16:00:15 fib1618: how is everyone?
2016-01-05 16:03:12 fib1618: as a reminder...this will be the last chat until Thursday, January 14th
2016-01-05 16:03:23 fib1618: we will make up the lost day for next week the following week
2016-01-05 16:03:38 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2016-01-05 16:09:57 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and see what we have to work with
2016-01-05 16:10:43 fib1618: as was our expectation from Monday
2016-01-05 16:10:57 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO had an obligatory bounce higher today
2016-01-05 16:11:12 fib1618: but by only 9 data points
2016-01-05 16:11:44 fib1618: so not enough of a bounce to declare a divergent bottom to work with
2016-01-05 16:12:10 fib1618: so we'll have to wait for more information on this on Wednesday after the ADP data is released in the morning
2016-01-05 16:12:34 fib1618: price pattern itself in the NYA did close above yesterday's intraday highs
2016-01-05 16:12:53 fib1618: so this would suggest that we should get some additional follow through as the market attempts to close Monday's downside gap
2016-01-05 16:13:17 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2016-01-05 16:13:28 fib1618: and here we got our snapback toward the zero line today
2016-01-05 16:13:51 fib1618: closing out with a reading of zero
2016-01-05 16:14:00 fib1618: so snapback complete
2016-01-05 16:14:07 fib1618: and one side is about to take control
2016-01-05 16:14:26 fib1618: snapback also complete with the NYSE MCO components
2016-01-05 16:14:58 fib1618: while the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM continues to stay close to its zero line with a reading today of -31
2016-01-05 16:15:01 fib1618: overall then
2016-01-05 16:15:26 fib1618: the NYSE exchange is very close to being neutral overall
2016-01-05 16:15:47 fib1618: though the sellers have a slight advantage on an intermediate term trending basis
2016-01-05 16:16:21 fib1618: small bounce as well in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2016-01-05 16:16:58 fib1618: though today's action shows a rally failure price bar
2016-01-05 16:17:28 fib1618: showing that the buyers didn't have the necessary muscle to reverse and hold
2016-01-05 16:17:43 fib1618: and this presents a good example of price strength
2016-01-05 16:18:02 fib1618: where the NYSE MCO's held above their lows of mid December on Monday
2016-01-05 16:18:05 fib1618: but the NASDAQ did not
2016-01-05 16:18:16 fib1618: and because of this dynamic
2016-01-05 16:18:28 fib1618: we got two different pattern results today
2016-01-05 16:18:49 fib1618: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now back to the -256 level
2016-01-05 16:19:06 fib1618: so if the bulls are going to hold the line, this would be the time to step up and do so
2016-01-05 16:19:27 fib1618: otherwise a trip to the -500 level would be our next expectation
2016-01-05 16:19:51 fib1618: small bounce higher as well in the NDX breadth MCO
2016-01-05 16:20:21 fib1618: as the NDX breadth MCSUM continues its downward journey to its zero line
2016-01-05 16:20:57 fib1618: here too we see that the NDX's attempt to close Monday's downside price gap was met with resistance
2016-01-05 16:21:08 fib1618: although with a higher MCO
2016-01-05 16:21:24 fib1618: a fill of this gap is still possible as soon as tomorrow
2016-01-05 16:21:35 fib1618: but if we fail again to achieve this goal
2016-01-05 16:22:16 fib1618: we could see the NDX sell off another 300 points before we have the next attempt to build another foundation
2016-01-05 16:22:24 fib1618: also of note
2016-01-05 16:22:45 fib1618: that today's reversal fulfilled a simple snapback to what was previous price pattern support
2016-01-05 16:22:59 fib1618: so an important couple of days coming up for the market
2016-01-05 16:23:25 fib1618: our expectation from last week was for firmness going into the jobs report on Friday
2016-01-05 16:23:37 fib1618: so unless the buyers step in here
2016-01-05 16:24:06 fib1618: this may be all she wrote for the bulls and a weaker January would be probable
2016-01-05 16:24:24 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2016-01-05 16:24:29 fib1618: and here we also bounced higher
2016-01-05 16:25:14 fib1618: this is a good near term sign that we not likely to continue to sell off here given that we didn't have an even lower MCO reading having just crossed down and through the SPX breadth MCSUM just the day before
2016-01-05 16:26:03 fib1618: yesterday's mid range close on the SPX, indicating an up close today, came through nicely
2016-01-05 16:26:09 fib1618: and now we have an inside range day
2016-01-05 16:26:27 fib1618: which would again suggest another up close on Wednesday unless this is a pause
2016-01-05 16:27:17 fib1618: with the a move to the SPX MCO zero line needed to have any chance to close Monday's price pattern gap at the 2040 level
2016-01-05 16:27:53 fib1618: a better than OK bounce in the OEX breadth MCO today
2016-01-05 16:28:16 fib1618: not great...but it does follow the path that we did have a lessening of selling pressure on Monday
2016-01-05 16:28:33 fib1618: and this led to today's bounce in the MCO's
2016-01-05 16:28:57 fib1618: down and through the zero line as well in the Dow breadth MCO
2016-01-05 16:29:02 fib1618: with little in the way of damage (so far)
2016-01-05 16:29:29 fib1618: this would suggest that both the sellers and the buyers remain at odds with each other
2016-01-05 16:29:44 fib1618: and with the divergence noted yesterday in the various MCO's
2016-01-05 16:30:07 fib1618: the odds are pretty good that we'll see a continuation of today's MCO bounce to the upside on Wednesday
2016-01-05 16:30:44 fib1618: another small bounce as well in the MID breadth MCO
2016-01-05 16:31:06 fib1618: having bounced near the -50 level (-52)
2016-01-05 16:31:51 fib1618: good upside follow through on Wednesday would likely drive this MCO to the -25 level
2016-01-05 16:32:30 fib1618: and then we'll be pretty close to the zero line in the MID breadth MCSUM on Thursday as we go into Friday's report
2016-01-05 16:33:01 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO did snapback up to the -50 level today
2016-01-05 16:33:22 fib1618: but we didn't have enough of a bounce to keep the SML breadth MCSUM from moving to new reaction lows today
2016-01-05 16:33:43 fib1618: or at least...we're with a point or two of doing so
2016-01-05 16:34:53 fib1618: given that the SML price structure is within 2% of reaching its objective lows forecasted by the MCO back at the early part of December
2016-01-05 16:35:11 fib1618: it would be constructive to see the SML MCSUM hold at current levels
2016-01-05 16:35:47 fib1618: or face a possibility of moving below the August/September bottoming process
2016-01-05 16:36:18 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO provided a simple snapback toward its zero line as well today
2016-01-05 16:36:45 fib1618: but like all of the breadth MCO's we've covered today
2016-01-05 16:36:56 fib1618: there's not a lot of amplitude to the move
2016-01-05 16:37:55 fib1618: which, if our assumptions from Monday are correct, is due to the back and filling we saw today as the dust cleared from the wreckage seen on Monday
2016-01-05 16:37:58 fib1618: so...
2016-01-05 16:38:06 fib1618: we got our anticipated bounce today
2016-01-05 16:38:29 fib1618: as well as a higher closes except in the NASDAQ and NDX
2016-01-05 16:38:44 fib1618: with the first job's shoe to drop in the morning
2016-01-05 16:39:18 fib1618: traders seem to be focusing on this data in the hopes it will provide clarity as to what the FED might be doing moving forward
2016-01-05 16:39:27 fib1618: either with measured moves higher
2016-01-05 16:40:04 fib1618: or whether, once again, the FED stayed asleep at the wheel for so long that they missed the actual turn off of when they should had actually moved rates higher
2016-01-05 16:40:27 fib1618: the economy remains stagnant at best
2016-01-05 16:40:52 fib1618: and I hope to have a more of a global feel of things next week after I come back from my business trip
2016-01-05 16:41:02 fib1618: moving to the sectors
2016-01-05 16:41:40 fib1618: and we first see that the price pattern in the XLY looks a bit sluggish
2016-01-05 16:41:52 fib1618: even in spite of today's higher reading in the XLY breadth MCO
2016-01-05 16:42:09 fib1618: we do, however, have bullish divergence in place
2016-01-05 16:42:28 fib1618: so maybe today was more of a mopping up process than it was a bearish feature
2016-01-05 16:42:45 fib1618: on the negative side
2016-01-05 16:43:02 fib1618: we see that the XLY breadth MCSUM moved down and through the -250 level today
2016-01-05 16:43:12 fib1618: so the buyers will need to step up here very quickly
2016-01-05 16:43:32 fib1618: or the XLY breadth MCSUM will see a trip to the -500 level
2016-01-05 16:43:33 fib1618: and with it
2016-01-05 16:43:54 fib1618: a $74 downside target for the XLY itself
2016-01-05 16:44:30 fib1618: the XLP pattern remains on the congested side
2016-01-05 16:44:43 fib1618: but on an internal basis
2016-01-05 16:44:55 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCSUM did find resistance at the +250 level
2016-01-05 16:45:10 fib1618: so here we're on a Summation Failure watch there
2016-01-05 16:45:31 fib1618: near term
2016-01-05 16:45:53 fib1618: an attempt to complete today's fill of Monday's gap should be seen at the open
2016-01-05 16:46:09 fib1618: but after that, it's nervous time for this basket of issues
2016-01-05 16:48:21 fib1618: moving to the XLE
2016-01-05 16:48:50 fib1618: and it looks like the test of the $59 was a successful one
2016-01-05 16:49:24 fib1618: as the XLE breadth MCO is now tracing out a complex bullish structure just above its zero line
2016-01-05 16:49:36 fib1618: problem though
2016-01-05 16:49:50 fib1618: is that the XLE components are still below their zero lines
2016-01-05 16:49:56 fib1618: and as we know all too well
2016-01-05 16:50:07 fib1618: when the components of the MCO and the MCO itself don't agree
2016-01-05 16:50:14 fib1618: it usually means corrective activity
2016-01-05 16:50:30 fib1618: on a positive note for the intermediate term
2016-01-05 16:51:01 fib1618: is that we did cross above the -1000 level and have now seen upside follow through today
2016-01-05 16:51:19 fib1618: we also had a small point change today
2016-01-05 16:52:09 fib1618: so it would appear that the market forces are about to show their hand, for what should be, the next 2-3 weeks of trading
2016-01-05 16:52:59 fib1618: so a nibble on the long side, with a hard stop at .10 below the intraday lows of 12/21, would be a nice play here
2016-01-05 16:53:31 fib1618: but we shouldn't expect too much in the way of fireworks to the upside until we get back above the -500 level
2016-01-05 16:53:50 fib1618: so...maybe this would be an accumulation point for now
2016-01-05 16:54:22 fib1618: nice upside bounce today in the XLF breadth MCO
2016-01-05 16:54:34 fib1618: but it still wasn't enough to move all the back to the zero line
2016-01-05 16:55:29 fib1618: the zero line resistance on the XLF breadth MCSUM does produce an additional caution sign
2016-01-05 16:55:38 fib1618: so better to step aside for now and see how things shake out there
2016-01-05 16:56:23 fib1618: the XLV got hit pretty hard on Monday's hard decline
2016-01-05 16:57:01 fib1618: so much so that the XLV breadth MCO moved to its lowest level since mid November
2016-01-05 16:57:08 fib1618: with that a break below the +500 level in the XLV breadth MCSUM would be indicated near term
2016-01-05 16:57:23 fib1618: looking at the chart and we see that it closed today with a reading of +507
2016-01-05 16:57:48 fib1618: so down and through is likely on Wednesday
2016-01-05 16:58:15 fib1618: zero line resistance held on the XLI breadth MCSUM
2016-01-05 16:58:35 fib1618: as a hard internal sell off took place
2016-01-05 16:58:57 fib1618: though the pattern did hold above its recent lows
2016-01-05 16:59:08 fib1618: but then the bounce today was meager at best
2016-01-05 16:59:19 fib1618: guess we're waiting for some news there
2016-01-05 17:00:01 fib1618: but the ability of the buyers to hold their ground today does suggest that some upside follow through will likely take place first before sellers would again grab control
2016-01-05 17:00:37 fib1618: the XLB price pattern looks weak
2016-01-05 17:01:03 fib1618: as the XLB breadth MCO broke below its mid December lows on Monday
2016-01-05 17:01:09 fib1618: tough call there
2016-01-05 17:01:18 fib1618: but leaning for continued price weakness near term
2016-01-05 17:01:59 fib1618: with any break of the $42 level allowing the price pattern to retrace to the $40 level
2016-01-05 17:02:08 fib1618: so a 5% risk on a long
2016-01-05 17:02:42 fib1618: the daily pattern though looks like the one the market had before we had the 12/14 sell off
2016-01-05 17:02:58 fib1618: which would mean a downside resolution...standing aside there
2016-01-05 17:03:19 fib1618: the XLK is desperately trying to hold on to the $42 level
2016-01-05 17:04:04 fib1618: and today's bounce in the XLK breadth MCO wasn't nearly enough to keep the XLK breadth MCSUM from moving to lower pattern lows
2016-01-05 17:04:38 fib1618: this sector needs some resuscitation...and fast
2016-01-05 17:05:00 fib1618: or a break of the XLK breadth MCSUM zero line would be likely
2016-01-05 17:05:41 fib1618: the price action in the XLU remains firm
2016-01-05 17:05:55 fib1618: with a hard reversal bar to the upside today
2016-01-05 17:06:15 fib1618: this would suggest some continued upside follow through near term
2016-01-05 17:06:34 fib1618: but with the XLU breadth MCO at the +50 level
2016-01-05 17:07:15 fib1618: it will take a booster shot to move above this level if there is to be any chance for the price action to see higher highs above the $44 level
2016-01-05 17:07:52 fib1618: and with the XLU breadth MCSUM now able to reach the -750 level today
2016-01-05 17:08:04 fib1618: there's a pretty good chance...give it 40%
2016-01-05 17:08:20 fib1618: that we will see higher highs in the XLU breadth MCO
2016-01-05 17:08:43 fib1618: price action is a real mess there
2016-01-05 17:08:54 fib1618: I think we commented on the very same thing last week
2016-01-05 17:08:55 fib1618: so...
2016-01-05 17:09:04 fib1618: like we saw with the major indices on Monday
2016-01-05 17:09:20 fib1618: there's a bunch of inconsistencies right now between sectors
2016-01-05 17:09:43 fib1618: today's bounce is showing indications that some follow through will be seen on Wednesday
2016-01-05 17:09:59 fib1618: and depending on the velocity generated by this follow through
2016-01-05 17:10:26 fib1618: will tell us whether or not the market will be able to stay firm past this Friday's jobs data or not
2016-01-05 17:10:57 unc1998: intraday TICK and TICKQ have remained buoyant the past couple of days
2016-01-05 17:11:03 fib1618: yes
2016-01-05 17:11:08 fib1618: was noticing that earlier today
2016-01-05 17:11:17 fib1618: money has been supporting prices at these levels
2016-01-05 17:11:20 unc1998: dumped my puts on Monday
2016-01-05 17:11:29 fib1618: at a profit?
2016-01-05 17:11:38 unc1998: oh yes [smile]
2016-01-05 17:11:44 fib1618: excellent!
2016-01-05 17:11:58 fib1618: no need to be greedy when it comes to options
2016-01-05 17:12:17 fib1618: but that's something that's learned
2016-01-05 17:12:23 fib1618: as with most newbies
2016-01-05 17:12:38 unc1998: exactly, have learned to be very patient trading them
2016-01-05 17:12:40 fib1618: they start getting visions of "making a killing" in their heads when the trade goes their way
2016-01-05 17:12:45 fib1618: and then lose their gains...usually to time decay
2016-01-05 17:13:09 fib1618: emotions are our biggest enemy in this business
2016-01-05 17:13:26 fib1618: this is why you have to have a round trip plan before making the trade
2016-01-05 17:13:51 fib1618: CVI's bounced higher today
2016-01-05 17:14:06 fib1618: STVO's remain minimally "oversold"
2016-01-05 17:14:30 fib1618: and the VTO's remain weak
2016-01-05 17:14:47 fib1618: showing very little solid buying right now
2016-01-05 17:14:58 fib1618: it's like traders are tip toeing around
2016-01-05 17:15:04 fib1618: they don't want to sell
2016-01-05 17:15:11 fib1618: but they don't see a reason to buy either
2016-01-05 17:15:32 fib1618: hopefully the answers they're looking for are the numbers coming out this week
2016-01-05 17:15:46 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.27
2016-01-05 17:16:02 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.09!
2016-01-05 17:16:05 fib1618: wow
2016-01-05 17:16:07 fib1618: what a move!
2016-01-05 17:16:34 fib1618: must had been the weight of the buying into Christmas (?)
2016-01-05 17:16:37 fib1618: oh yea
2016-01-05 17:16:45 fib1618: we had several days of below .70 didn't we?
2016-01-05 17:17:01 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.41
2016-01-05 17:17:14 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.01
2016-01-05 17:17:33 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.45
2016-01-05 17:17:38 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.08
2016-01-05 17:18:02 fib1618: so whatever numbers came off from yesterday sure did lift the 10 day TRIN's
2016-01-05 17:18:05 fib1618: so...
2016-01-05 17:18:29 fib1618: it would seem that we are now set up for the upcoming jobs numbers for December
2016-01-05 17:18:48 fib1618: keep in mind that many seasonal jobs will be lost in this figure
2016-01-05 17:19:10 fib1618: with that said...let me check what the consensus is saying for both
2016-01-05 17:19:12 fib1618: one sec
2016-01-05 17:19:55 fib1618: oooo...lots of stuff tomorrow
2016-01-05 17:20:05 fib1618: SDP
2016-01-05 17:20:06 fib1618: PMI
2016-01-05 17:20:12 fib1618: ISM
2016-01-05 17:20:21 fib1618: and the FOMC minutes
2016-01-05 17:20:56 fib1618: ADP consensus is 190,000
2016-01-05 17:21:12 fib1618: Friday is for 200,000
2016-01-05 17:21:16 fib1618: don't see it
2016-01-05 17:21:28 fib1618: but who am I to say?
2016-01-05 17:21:41 fib1618: things are just weak all over
2016-01-05 17:21:54 fib1618: wish I could say otherwise
2016-01-05 17:22:06 fib1618: it should be an interesting show coming up
2016-01-05 17:22:08 fib1618: anything else?
2016-01-05 17:22:22 unc1998: Have a nice trip
2016-01-05 17:22:26 fib1618: thank you
2016-01-05 17:22:30 fib1618: if anything
2016-01-05 17:22:45 fib1618: I will be forced to relax in between show hours [smile]
2016-01-05 17:23:15 fib1618: remember again that our next chat will be a week from this coming Thursday
2016-01-05 17:23:18 fib1618: in my absence
2016-01-05 17:23:40 fib1618: everyone is free to use the chat room for discussions
2016-01-05 17:23:58 fib1618: and if anything new and different takes place
2016-01-05 17:24:07 fib1618: I will make a general post
2016-01-05 17:24:10 fib1618: but for now
2016-01-05 17:24:25 fib1618: it looks like the market it going to take its near term cues from data
2016-01-05 17:24:58 fib1618: and be overall choppy...with a bearish bias unless the buyers come in with both hands
2016-01-05 17:25:25 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2016-01-05 17:25:28 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2016-01-05 17:25:35 fib1618: everyone have a great week of trading
2016-01-05 17:25:43 fib1618: and we'll meet up again a week from Thursday
2016-01-05 17:25:45 fib1618: good night

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