Chat - 12/9/14 - Technical Watch Forum

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TW Chat Room > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 12/9/14

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fib_1618

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Registered:1101777014
Posts: 4,806

Posted 1418218735	Reply with quote #1

2014-12-09 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day 2014-12-09 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone? 2014-12-09 16:00:36 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Great here! What a day 2014-12-09 16:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2014-12-09 16:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2 in a row actually 2014-12-09 16:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kinda scared to trade the precious metals on Monday's now 2014-12-09 16:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISEE though is indicating an important bottom being hammered out here 2014-12-09 16:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 66 yesterday...68 today 2014-12-09 16:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYSE Open 10 is now deeply "oversold" 2014-12-09 16:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when's the FED meeting? Next week? 2014-12-09 16:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Let me check 2014-12-09 16:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep...next week - 2 day meeting 2014-12-09 16:04:35 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thursday? 2014-12-09 16:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday/Wednesday 2014-12-09 16:05:02 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes I see it now 2014-12-09 16:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new schedule for 2015 is also up now 2014-12-09 16:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1st one is end of January 2014-12-09 16:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of them are 2 day meetings! 2014-12-09 16:05:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?? 2014-12-09 16:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice day in the metals 2014-12-09 16:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first time above their 50 day EMA in quite a while 2014-12-09 16:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: PM stocks though are not confirming 2014-12-09 16:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: climatic behavior in the XAU today 2014-12-09 16:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should be an interesting week there as well 2014-12-09 16:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and get going 2014-12-09 16:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to a lower low on Monday 2014-12-09 16:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO bounced higher today 2014-12-09 16:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it snapped back toward its zero line 2014-12-09 16:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components 2014-12-09 16:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that today's bounce coincided with the 10% Index bouncing off its zero line 2014-12-09 16:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while remaining on a negative cross over configuration with the the 5% Trend 2014-12-09 16:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM 2014-12-09 16:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that the sellers did not have any follow through to Monday's gap extension to the downside 2014-12-09 16:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we do see upside follow through on Wednesday 2014-12-09 16:12:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today could had been a wash out point in the pattern 2014-12-09 16:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if this MCO can take out the reaction highs of last week 2014-12-09 16:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO 2014-12-09 16:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see the identical pattern with that of the CO data 2014-12-09 16:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a bounce from just below natural support at the -25 level today 2014-12-09 16:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice here as well how the 10% Trend bounced off its zero line 2014-12-09 16:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping things in a corrective sequence 2014-12-09 16:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA index today in Candlestick form 2014-12-09 16:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have a hammer stick in place 2014-12-09 16:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as prices found support from just under its 50 day EMA 2014-12-09 16:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then closed above this same EMA 2014-12-09 16:16:00 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I was wondering about that 2014-12-09 16:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something like this is usually followed by a follow through move to the upside 2014-12-09 16:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the 20 day EMA will provide initial resistance at the 10,904 level 2014-12-09 16:16:51 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Even with a shallow bottom 2014-12-09 16:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our Parabolic SAR coming in at 11,017 for a buy point trigger 2014-12-09 16:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes... 2014-12-09 16:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it lasted a bit longer than one would expect at this point 2014-12-09 16:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly 2014-12-09 16:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're attempting to hold at just below the level of "escape velocity" in the MCSUM of which I've marked on the cumulative charts 2014-12-09 16:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the heavy put buying of the last two days 2014-12-09 16:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yesterday's "oversold" reading in the NYSE Open 10 2014-12-09 16:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that at least a tradable bottom might had occurred today 2014-12-09 16:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very similar to what we saw in mid October 2014-12-09 16:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still need the follow through though 2014-12-09 16:19:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the volume was there today 2014-12-09 16:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: largest since last Monday's trading 2014-12-09 16:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also marked a temporary bottom of sorts that held for the rest of last week 2014-12-09 16:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ 2014-12-09 16:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we had a above average volume reversal today 2014-12-09 16:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO 2014-12-09 16:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have a bottom above a bottom in place 2014-12-09 16:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where some immediate follow through to the upside on Wednesday would likely put us "off to the races" towards the all time price highs in the NASDAQ Composite itself 2014-12-09 16:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we would likely take out three areas of resistance 2014-12-09 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last weeks horizontal high point 2014-12-09 16:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the declining tops line 2014-12-09 16:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the highs of late last month at the +25 level 2014-12-09 16:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components 2014-12-09 16:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we generated a crossover buy signal today 2014-12-09 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...if we get follow through here 2014-12-09 16:25:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers are going to get a whooping 2014-12-09 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we would also break above the current sideways consolidation in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM 2014-12-09 16:26:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the anticipated power of moving above three areas of resistance in the MCO 2014-12-09 16:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would catapult the MCSUM above the +250 level and we would then be technically "in the clear" across the board 2014-12-09 16:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very bullish action in the NASDAQ 2014-12-09 16:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO 2014-12-09 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we had a small point change today 2014-12-09 16:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with another reversal bar generated 2014-12-09 16:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though without above average volume 2014-12-09 16:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO showing buying coming in 2014-12-09 16:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call this then a "short covering rally" 2014-12-09 16:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe to balance out the shake out in the techs on Monday 2014-12-09 16:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NDX breadth MCSUM still with a reading of +1359 2014-12-09 16:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will far easier to move prices in this same direction 2014-12-09 16:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will also keep prices from declining in any important way 2014-12-09 16:30:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see if the small caps are showing this same kind of strength or not in a moment...that's going to be important 2014-12-09 16:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX 2014-12-09 16:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have a small point change here as well in the SPX breadth MCO 2014-12-09 16:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we just missed in confirming another reversal bar here by .49 2014-12-09 16:33:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the volume 2014-12-09 16:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...high volume reversal there 2014-12-09 16:34:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see it plainly on the SPY chart 2014-12-09 16:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can also see how the price pattern closed back within its trading range today 2014-12-09 16:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after testing below the 20 day EMA 2014-12-09 16:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCSUM is still above the +1250 level 2014-12-09 16:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this continues 2014-12-09 16:35:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance will remain higher 2014-12-09 16:35:37 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: just missed high volume reversal bar? 2014-12-09 16:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any pullbacks will tend to be short and shallow 2014-12-09 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the high volume on the SPY 2014-12-09 16:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check it out 2014-12-09 16:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically 2014-12-09 16:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe this is semantics 2014-12-09 16:36:42 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Oh that's it 2014-12-09 16:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we didn't close higher which would make the reversal a slam dunk 2014-12-09 16:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how things shake out tomorrow as we could spend a day digesting before making a decision 2014-12-09 16:37:05 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Right 2014-12-09 16:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it was a good character day for the buyers 2014-12-09 16:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a woeful one for the sellers 2014-12-09 16:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they had everything behind them at the open 2014-12-09 16:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just couldn't find any takers 2014-12-09 16:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same story with the OEX data 2014-12-09 16:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX breadth MCO components still well above their zero lines 2014-12-09 16:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is going to keep any kind of bearish ambush from taking any prisoners along the way 2014-12-09 16:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO is now minimally "oversold" 2014-12-09 16:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a -49 reading 2014-12-09 16:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note how the Dow breadth MCSUM could not negotiate its way above the +1750 level 2014-12-09 16:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price wise 2014-12-09 16:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 17,600 remains strong price support 2014-12-09 16:40:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: price aside-that's a fair size posting.. 2014-12-09 16:40:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is 2014-12-09 16:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not too surprising given how "overbought" we are 2014-12-09 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I had to bet here 2014-12-09 16:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we haven't looked at everything, of course 2014-12-09 16:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the secondaries and the small caps begin to lead the way higher here 2014-12-09 16:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the majors work off their "overbought" readings 2014-12-09 16:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, in another way to put it, having money moving from areas of which it deems to be fully to over valued 2014-12-09 16:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to those that haven't really made too much progress 2014-12-09 16:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here remains with the cost of money 2014-12-09 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and interest rates continue to have a hard to time moving above the 2.30% level on the 10 year 2014-12-09 16:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what gives us confidence that rates will not move higher over the short term 2014-12-09 16:43:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line remains above its longer term rising bottoms line 2014-12-09 16:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also have to acknowledge that hard reversal on gold on Monday 2014-12-09 16:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the back of China announcing that their economy is starting to falter again 2014-12-09 16:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would then push rates lower 2014-12-09 16:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which then provides more liquidity 2014-12-09 16:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then those excesses move into gold 2014-12-09 16:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's be honest here 2014-12-09 16:44:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the world is fully enjoying the accommodative stance drug 2014-12-09 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will take a lot more time before we can be weened off 2014-12-09 16:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here in the states 2014-12-09 16:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ACA is killing the economy 2014-12-09 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but no one wants to discuss this 2014-12-09 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's a reason why we're seeing a lot of part time employment now 2014-12-09 16:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nothing that resembles that of being full time 2014-12-09 16:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as mentioned over the weekend 2014-12-09 16:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be a reasonable expectation to see last month's jobs number be more of an anomaly than that of being a substantive piece of information because of seasonal factors 2014-12-09 16:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: read today that the consumer is more "conditioned" now to shop online than shop at a brick and mortar 2014-12-09 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so... 2014-12-09 16:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to change with the new way of doing business 2014-12-09 16:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless 2014-12-09 16:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as interest rates remain accommodative 2014-12-09 16:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance in equities will remain higher for even the idea of it being the only asset class that gives a better return than just 2% 2014-12-09 16:49:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you better throw a big website up 2014-12-09 16:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: real estate though is doing well 2014-12-09 16:49:28 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: So far 2014-12-09 16:49:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving higher at a time in which it tends to correct going into the end of the year 2014-12-09 16:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the supply there remains low 2014-12-09 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the demand might push prices even higher 2014-12-09 16:50:29 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Here in Texas they are worried with lower oil prices not good for RE 2014-12-09 16:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when you hear that 15 year fixed loans right now are at 2.85% 2014-12-09 16:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, that's something we talked about last week Mike 2014-12-09 16:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all remember the fallout in the early 80's 2014-12-09 16:51:12 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Sure do 2014-12-09 16:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's always going to be consequences to whatever direction prices move on any commodity 2014-12-09 16:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact 2014-12-09 16:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was commenting over the weekend on how prices on gasoline have slowed to the downside of late even in the face of the sector collapsing 2014-12-09 16:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that service stations are getting pinched here 2014-12-09 16:52:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for what many don't think about 2014-12-09 16:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that 2014-12-09 16:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes a certain selling price in order to stay in business 2014-12-09 16:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the unintended consequence here is that 2014-12-09 16:53:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have greedy politicians that will come out and say that since gas has gone down so much NOW we can increase gas taxes 2014-12-09 16:53:38 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes and -$70 Oil (lower Taxes) could mean gambling coming to Texas 2014-12-09 16:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's always positive and negatives in the markets and their extensions to the consumer 2014-12-09 16:53:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go 2014-12-09 16:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they'll use the "give back to the Native American's" scam to do so 2014-12-09 16:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway 2014-12-09 16:54:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much for supposition...let's get back to work 2014-12-09 16:54:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also bounced back to its zero line today 2014-12-09 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after showing a higher low on Monday 2014-12-09 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't have, however, a crossover buy signal though on the components 2014-12-09 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but both are above their zero line 2014-12-09 16:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...will this lack of follow though selling on Monday provide the leap for prices to move to higher highs? 2014-12-09 16:56:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MID breadth MCSUM at a reading of +934 2014-12-09 16:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds suggest that it would be easier to move higher from here than it would be to see prices decay 2014-12-09 16:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML breadth MCO 2014-12-09 16:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also had a lower high on Monday 2014-12-09 16:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we also took out the reaction highs of last week 2014-12-09 16:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND 2014-12-09 16:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a crossover buy signal today 2014-12-09 16:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it looks like that it's time to move long again here 2014-12-09 16:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if we see good upside follow through on Wednesday 2014-12-09 16:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a bottom folks 2014-12-09 16:58:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SML closed on the highs of the day 2014-12-09 16:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right at the top of the range 2014-12-09 16:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it looks like rotation is moving back into the small caps and the NASDAQ 2014-12-09 16:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need to see is if volume is echoing what breadth is indicating 2014-12-09 16:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should then be off and running 2014-12-09 16:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the TM breadth MCO 2014-12-09 17:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we had a lower low on Monday 2014-12-09 17:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a simple snapback toward the zero line today 2014-12-09 17:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that the 10% Trend "saved itself" and settled back above its zero line 2014-12-09 17:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good follow through here would also be a highly bullish event 2014-12-09 17:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would set in motion a pretty good rest of the month/year 2014-12-09 17:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so... 2014-12-09 17:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that money is now moving back into the the areas that are deemed "less deserving" (growth) 2014-12-09 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're seeing the very same interplay that we saw with the October lows 2014-12-09 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with non confirmations on Monday by the NASDAQ, MID and SML breadth MCO's 2014-12-09 17:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the large caps moved to a lower low 2014-12-09 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then thrusted higher 2014-12-09 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need to see if volume agrees...so let's look at that 2014-12-09 17:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO volume MCO is lagging breadth here 2014-12-09 17:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is probably why we couldn't quite close positive today 2014-12-09 17:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today allowed the 5% Trend of the CO volume MCO to bounce today 2014-12-09 17:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 10% Trend is still well below its zero line 2014-12-09 17:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a bullish thing near term 2014-12-09 17:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the NYSE Composite volume MCO is nearer to the -50 level 2014-12-09 17:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this maybe part of a washout 2014-12-09 17:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's look there 2014-12-09 17:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got to a -45 on Monday 2014-12-09 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close 2014-12-09 17:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not clean 2014-12-09 17:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep...still a lot of conviction still yet to be seen by the buyers here 2014-12-09 17:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will keep the NYA from moving past its all time highs 2014-12-09 17:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with breadth more neutral 2014-12-09 17:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can keep prices within the trading range 2014-12-09 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower low as well in the NASDAQ volume MCO 2014-12-09 17:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though here the components remain on the bullish side of neutral 2014-12-09 17:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's positive 2014-12-09 17:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because 2014-12-09 17:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this were some sort of termination point in the larger rally 2014-12-09 17:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: history has shown that the NASDAQ will be the downside leader with weaker money flow dynamics 2014-12-09 17:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're not seeing that 2014-12-09 17:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a nice wash out now in the NDX volume MCO 2014-12-09 17:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: literally straight down with little in the way of texture 2014-12-09 17:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components here too remain on the positive side of the zero line 2014-12-09 17:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the SPX volume MCO 2014-12-09 17:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the buyers will really need to move above the declining tops lines we're seeing on these volume MCO charts before we can declare that a price bottom is behind us 2014-12-09 17:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least so far 2014-12-09 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be interesting to see how the MID and SML are fairing in this respect 2014-12-09 17:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much of a change in the OEX data 2014-12-09 17:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we see a lower volume MCO 2014-12-09 17:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the components remain above their zero line 2014-12-09 17:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't have a trend in either direction until both the MCO and its components agree by being on the same side of their zero lines 2014-12-09 17:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so choppy behavior is the usual result 2014-12-09 17:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I guess that last 2 days would count as being choppy...especially after lunch on Monday - no less the last week or so 2014-12-09 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCO is now highly "oversold" 2014-12-09 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could of had a capitulation day there 2014-12-09 17:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice here how the Dow volume MCSUM was turned away from natural resistance at the +1500 level 2014-12-09 17:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry 2014-12-09 17:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wrong 2014-12-09 17:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like the +1750 level 2014-12-09 17:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check that 2014-12-09 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like around +1625 2014-12-09 17:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (never mind) 2014-12-09 17:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice though that the Dow volume 10% component is back to its zero line now 2014-12-09 17:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should expect a bounce off this line as soon as tomorrow 2014-12-09 17:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCO is in much better shape here in relation to its zero line 2014-12-09 17:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the 1 year MID volume MCSUM 2014-12-09 17:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see by the congested downside posts that the sellers have no real control here 2014-12-09 17:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should see at least a rally attempt because of this on Wednesday 2014-12-09 17:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...even if we do see this 2014-12-09 17:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a lot of work still yet to do before a break above the declining tops line connecting the November highs would be seen 2014-12-09 17:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: problem here with December 2014-12-09 17:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we need to see this take place before OPEX since the last 2 weeks of the year are like walking through a grave yard as far as participants are concerned 2014-12-09 17:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we have Christmas and New Year's falling on Thursday's this year 2014-12-09 17:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means 2014-12-09 17:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have trading on both Fridays...half days 2014-12-09 17:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be interesting how that all shakes out 2014-12-09 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as low volume days tend to accentuate moves 2014-12-09 17:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's a couple of weeks away 2014-12-09 17:23:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML volume MCO 2014-12-09 17:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while we're still below the zero line here 2014-12-09 17:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did move above last week's high point 2014-12-09 17:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like we saw with its breadth cousin 2014-12-09 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good in flows of capital here would then give us an "all clear" for a tradable low 2014-12-09 17:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll keep an eye on that too 2014-12-09 17:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're seeing the same kind of overall configuration with the TM volume MCO 2014-12-09 17:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both the components here above their zero line 2014-12-09 17:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would suggest current corrective activity 2014-12-09 17:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so... 2014-12-09 17:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a good day in parts 2014-12-09 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're still don't have conclusive evidence that what took place in the late afternoon on Monday has actually passed 2014-12-09 17:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we can be sure that we'll know very clearly if it has passed or not by what the market does or doesn't do over the next 2 days 2014-12-09 17:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are neutral to minimally "oversold" 2014-12-09 17:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are pretty much neutral now 2014-12-09 17:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side could take control near term 2014-12-09 17:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's remain on the high side of the scale 2014-12-09 17:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that a strong uptrend is in progress 2014-12-09 17:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.09 2014-12-09 17:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 still "oversold" at 1.15 2014-12-09 17:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...when we get above 1.10 2014-12-09 17:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes more and more difficult for the sellers to maintain their downward bias 2014-12-09 17:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the basketball in the deep end of a swimming pool 2014-12-09 17:30:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless you provide constant pressure to keep it below the water line 2014-12-09 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once release 2014-12-09 17:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will move sharply back above the water line, and even above it, on the thrust caused by displacement 2014-12-09 17:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.04 2014-12-09 17:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at .95 2014-12-09 17:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this last couple of days has been enough to push this indicator all so close to being "oversold" now 2014-12-09 17:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .96 2014-12-09 17:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .99 2014-12-09 17:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on the door step of being minimally "oversold" 2014-12-09 17:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so... 2014-12-09 17:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aside from another day or two of trying to find its footing 2014-12-09 17:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that the market is near a tradable bottom 2014-12-09 17:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the small caps showing some new strength over the last couple of days 2014-12-09 17:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any follow through then would allow prices to break above any consolidations still in work 2014-12-09 17:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for many price indices that would mean new all time price highs that go along with it 2014-12-09 17:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this point 2014-12-09 17:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll remain friendly toward equities in general 2014-12-09 17:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while keeping a watchful eye on the NASDAQ and Small Caps as to whether or not this near term shake out was enough to add another brick to the ongoing wall of worry that has been so prevalent in this uptrend 2014-12-09 17:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS 2014-12-09 17:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NAAD is coiled up in a triangle and ready to explode here...which way? 2014-12-09 17:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: resistance is at the 200 day EMA (1% Trend) 2014-12-09 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it found support at the 39 day EMA today (5% Trend) 2014-12-09 17:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed above both the 19 and 39 day EMA's 2014-12-09 17:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this baby is *COMPRESSED* 2014-12-09 17:38:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYAD line found support at its 19 day EMA today...pattern congestion there too 2014-12-09 17:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once this thing breaks...it's going to run 2014-12-09 17:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -20 2014-12-09 17:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cash 2014-12-09 17:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: barely hanging on 2014-12-09 17:39:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much indecision here 2014-12-09 17:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the NYAD and NAAD strongly suggest that we're going to have clarity here very soon 2014-12-09 17:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also keep in mind 2014-12-09 17:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Canadian stocks are weighing heavily on the BETS here 2014-12-09 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact 2014-12-09 17:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me a moment and I'll only count the US cumulative charts...just for fun 2014-12-09 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much of a difference because of the AMEX data - +10 2014-12-09 17:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's a differential of 6 charts 2014-12-09 17:42:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...looks like we have an interesting day shaping up for WWW 2014-12-09 17:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully we'll have more information to work with from those areas that are showing inconsistencies...like the volume MCO's 2014-12-09 17:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else? 2014-12-09 17:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking the futures 2014-12-09 17:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slightly lower 2014-12-09 17:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold's down $2.50 2014-12-09 17:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really nice action there 2014-12-09 17:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be nice if the PM stocks agreed though 2014-12-09 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing else? 2014-12-09 17:45:20 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Are you short gold? 2014-12-09 17:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moved in today...yes 2014-12-09 17:46:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I felt like price lead breadth today, and didn't care for some of the wide postings down, along with volume not leading-in some places not confirming. I have to say, I'm in the "show me" state here. 2014-12-09 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I like the action of how the PM stocks did NOT confirm the move 2014-12-09 17:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a risky trade though 2014-12-09 17:46:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I agree Lew 2014-12-09 17:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was more of the shorts giving up 2014-12-09 17:47:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why we had the kind of reversal that we did 2014-12-09 17:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given everything we have to work with here 2014-12-09 17:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still in a consolidation 2014-12-09 17:47:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: gun shy-can't blame em, lol 2014-12-09 17:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what happened today is that 2014-12-09 17:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw this trading range re-enforced with the close back within the range 2014-12-09 17:47:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep 2014-12-09 17:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like looking over the cliff 2014-12-09 17:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in reality 2014-12-09 17:48:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were on a clear extended plastic platform while doing so and then decided to come back off the platform to solid earth 2014-12-09 17:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a good character day for the buyers 2014-12-09 17:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually 2014-12-09 17:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was more of a horrible character day for the sellers 2014-12-09 17:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they had everything behind them to keep the market down at least 1% 2014-12-09 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they couldn't find any takers 2014-12-09 17:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course the technical reason for this lies with the position of the MCSUM 2014-12-09 17:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else 2014-12-09 17:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off 2014-12-09 17:50:58 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Dave, Lew Thanks for the insights 2014-12-09 17:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days 2014-12-09 17:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are humming on Thursday 2014-12-09 17:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night 2014-12-09 17:51:29 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good night All 2014-12-09 17:52:26 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: good night all 2014-12-09 17:52:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good nite __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977
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