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Posts: 4,882
Reply with quote  #1 
2010-12-09 16:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-12-09 16:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-12-09 16:00:54 [Message] manuj -> Chat: hey fib
2010-12-09 16:00:57 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Hi
2010-12-09 16:01:05 [Message] manuj -> Chat: finally i am in the live chat :-)
2010-12-09 16:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: howdy Manuj...great you could join us!
2010-12-09 16:01:33 [Message] manuj -> Chat: doing good. exciting to be here.
2010-12-09 16:01:36 [Message] manuj -> Chat: lots to learn
2010-12-09 16:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-12-09 16:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every day...that's all we do here..learn
2010-12-09 16:02:20 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Okay but uncomfortable. Small change in the FTSE MCO, which when it occurs at the same time as the US indices, greatly increases the probability of a large move soon.
2010-12-09 16:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the interesting thing about the small change indicator
2010-12-09 16:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that when we get multiple days of this
2010-12-09 16:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it tends to turn into more of short term (3-6 weeks) trend indicator as opposed to just the next day
2010-12-09 16:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be sure...there is a tremendous amount of tension on the tape right now
2010-12-09 16:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why the prudent position to take over the last couple of days was to stand aside and wait for something to happen
2010-12-09 16:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chop chop chop
2010-12-09 16:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: want to see what happens when one stock trades half of the total trading volume in one day?
2010-12-09 16:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-12-09 16:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...I wrote a note to Carl this morning about this and suggested that we do this as a ratio adjusted basis
2010-12-09 16:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty amazing...the stock, btw, was Citibank
2010-12-09 16:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...I think we'll pay no mind to the XLF volume McClellan's until this can be worked off and use the XLF breadth data as our guide
2010-12-09 16:09:14 [Message] manuj -> Chat: but aren't other TRINs out of order too e.g. NASDAQ etc.
2010-12-09 16:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN is fine as C doesn't trade on this market
2010-12-09 16:09:28 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok
2010-12-09 16:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved a bit higher today
2010-12-09 16:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while both the MCO components remain in a bullish configuration
2010-12-09 16:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've talked about now for over a week
2010-12-09 16:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it isn't the best thing to try to short the market when the MCO components are in this current position
2010-12-09 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would want to see either a crossover of the 10% trend through the 5%
2010-12-09 16:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least have both Trend models below their zero line
2010-12-09 16:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until this occurs
2010-12-09 16:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any corrections will be that of the intraday variety...and they will also be rather shallow as well
2010-12-09 16:13:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the actual "depth" of a price correction in this current configuration does have a lot to do with the position of the MCSUM
2010-12-09 16:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-12-09 16:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that it is close to minimally "overbought" now with a reading of +488
2010-12-09 16:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the options we were looking for last week
2010-12-09 16:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was to see the CO MCSUM attempt to snapback to or towards the +500 line after breaking below it 2 weeks ago
2010-12-09 16:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this move higher
2010-12-09 16:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can now call this obligatory technical phenomenon now complete
2010-12-09 16:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE composite
2010-12-09 16:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have close to a small point change...but not quite within the guidelines
2010-12-09 16:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the guidelines are a change of 4 point to none on the MCO
2010-12-09 16:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here in the chat room, since DP deals in decimals on this data, we allow up to 4.5
2010-12-09 16:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in essence, though, we are continuing to compress here
2010-12-09 16:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and compression eventually gets released
2010-12-09 16:17:58 [Message] manuj -> Chat: means if the change is less than 4.5 - then ignore that change? sorry for all newbie questions
2010-12-09 16:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so our objective here is not to lead off in "thinking" which way we're likely to go
2010-12-09 16:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to wait for this move to begin and then climbing on board
2010-12-09 16:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...everything counts
2010-12-09 16:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not in guidelines...strictly speaking
2010-12-09 16:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2010-12-09 16:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have compression with the numbers are less than 5
2010-12-09 16:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one side is about to take control
2010-12-09 16:19:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually this is the next two trading days
2010-12-09 16:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this has been going on now for almost a week
2010-12-09 16:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although a big move is coming, as we talked about in the beginning of chat, the move will likely be a multi day event
2010-12-09 16:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking back at the NYSE breadth MCO
2010-12-09 16:20:34 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: We got a bearish divergence today on NYSE Comp, I think
2010-12-09 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking
2010-12-09 16:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope,...not yet
2010-12-09 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the closing high in early November was 7800.66
2010-12-09 16:21:44 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: From the December 3 high in MCO
2010-12-09 16:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed today at 7782.14
2010-12-09 16:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: divergence is taken from extremes in pattern
2010-12-09 16:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to compare like examples
2010-12-09 16:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until we take out the last high point in price
2010-12-09 16:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we're dealing with information that is "settled" after all the i's are dotted and t's are crossed
2010-12-09 16:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to be consistent
2010-12-09 16:23:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2010-12-09 16:23:26 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Yes
2010-12-09 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far we only have momentum divergence NOT trend divergence
2010-12-09 16:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is trend divergence that gives us the highest degree of usefulness in our trading
2010-12-09 16:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether it be daily, weekly, monthly, or even as little as 5 minutes
2010-12-09 16:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you treat the MCO as any other oscillator comparison
2010-12-09 16:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you also treat the MCSUM the same way as they are both oscillators
2010-12-09 16:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the NYSE breadth MCO
2010-12-09 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do notice is that we did finish our snapback to the zero line yesterday
2010-12-09 16:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closed slightly below it
2010-12-09 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what usually happens after a trend line break?
2010-12-09 16:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...we snapback
2010-12-09 16:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what occurred today
2010-12-09 16:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short term
2010-12-09 16:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO has a bottom above a bottom in place
2010-12-09 16:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but longer term
2010-12-09 16:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to the highs seen in July
2010-12-09 16:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a nice series of tops beneath tops controlling the pattern
2010-12-09 16:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in technical analysis we always give the benefit of any doubt to the longest, and therefore, strongest line until PROVEN otherwise
2010-12-09 16:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so our expectation here since we moved below zero, and have snapped back, is for additional time to take place below the zero line
2010-12-09 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is what we had as our blueprint from last week
2010-12-09 16:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now remember
2010-12-09 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if we do move lower from here
2010-12-09 16:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't necessarily mean that your going to see prices move in lock step either
2010-12-09 16:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it all depends on what's being sold
2010-12-09 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we fortunate to have the subset charts available to us here at DP
2010-12-09 16:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for they give us a more rounded view of not only the direction of broader money flow
2010-12-09 16:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but from where it's moving into and out of as money tends to do
2010-12-09 16:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE MCO components
2010-12-09 16:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have a crossover sell signal in place now
2010-12-09 16:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we are still above the zero line
2010-12-09 16:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if we do move lower here we're pretty sure of two things
2010-12-09 16:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first...there will likely be a zero line bounce before we see any downward movement below these same zero lines
2010-12-09 16:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and second
2010-12-09 16:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because the MCO is below the zero line, and the components are above their zero lines, we should expect corrective and not trending price movement
2010-12-09 16:32:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means if you have the stomach to short here
2010-12-09 16:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you should continue to play hit and run
2010-12-09 16:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take your 5 points...and bank it
2010-12-09 16:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or 3 points
2010-12-09 16:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or 7 points
2010-12-09 16:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatever tools you use to time your positions intraday respect them when they tell you sell (or cover)
2010-12-09 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: play it smart...not emotional
2010-12-09 16:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to consider here
2010-12-09 16:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is really, in all honestly, the bears are really running out of time here
2010-12-09 16:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because money continues to move into the SML and the NASDAQ
2010-12-09 16:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this suggests to us that liquidity is more than ample
2010-12-09 16:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if there is so much of it that sellers can't move the market lower
2010-12-09 16:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then eventually they are going to give up
2010-12-09 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're going to power higher
2010-12-09 16:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so don't think for one moment that the market MUST sell off here
2010-12-09 16:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reading the TT board over the last couple of days and I have never seen so many traders "begging" for a decline to begin
2010-12-09 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every day is the top and continue to disregard the broader market
2010-12-09 16:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: big mistake
2010-12-09 16:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2010-12-09 16:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in here...we have also been looking for a reasonable expectation of a decline
2010-12-09 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with a keen eye on letting the market do the talking here
2010-12-09 16:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ data
2010-12-09 16:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ breadth MCO also had a small move today..but higher
2010-12-09 16:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and its now testing the early November highs which is where our demarcation point is of treating the current action as a consolidation or a the start of a new trend
2010-12-09 16:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2010-12-09 16:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that it's now approaching its +250 level
2010-12-09 16:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we take a closer look of this MCSUM with the 21 day chart
2010-12-09 16:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you will see that we have now filled the resistance gap we talked about on Tuesday as being the "bears last stand"
2010-12-09 16:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so quietly the NASDAQ is breaking out here to the upside
2010-12-09 16:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see this with the price data
2010-12-09 16:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is definitely not a market you want to short right now
2010-12-09 16:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if will get your most bang for your money by playing the long side
2010-12-09 16:41:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO continues to hang around its zero line
2010-12-09 16:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no one wants to take control
2010-12-09 16:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has "forced" the NDX breadth MCSUM to move sideways in "overbought" territory
2010-12-09 16:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here is a great example of how little conviction the bears have currently
2010-12-09 16:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were only able to move this MCSUM to just below the +750 level
2010-12-09 16:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but haven't really done anything since
2010-12-09 16:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a sign of great strength for the this market
2010-12-09 16:43:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, things can drip drip drip and then open up a wound
2010-12-09 16:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you can't go out and lead off on this kind of idea
2010-12-09 16:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after snapping back to or towards its zero line, the SPX breadth MCO is now moving higher again
2010-12-09 16:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is taking place at the magical +500 level on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2010-12-09 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bulls can create an advancing gap here at the +500 level
2010-12-09 16:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears will run for cover
2010-12-09 16:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more than likely
2010-12-09 16:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will be able to power above the early November MCO highs
2010-12-09 16:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah oh
2010-12-09 16:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears are losing their grip here
2010-12-09 16:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the OEX breadth MCO
2010-12-09 16:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to its zero line and has today made a new high
2010-12-09 16:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this thrust higher has given us our first gap expansion to the upside on the OEX breadth MCSUM
2010-12-09 16:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger the distance of the gaps
2010-12-09 16:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more or less the money is either coming in or going out of the market
2010-12-09 16:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is "something different" given the longevity of the OEX breadth MCO staying below its zero line
2010-12-09 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation was for a failure after the snapback to zero
2010-12-09 16:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not getting that now
2010-12-09 16:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2010-12-09 16:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this "something different" will not be confirmed until we take out the November MCO highs
2010-12-09 16:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's a whisper and needs our respect for what it may imply
2010-12-09 16:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other bullish indication here
2010-12-09 16:49:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the OEX MCO components are in lock step with the MCO itself
2010-12-09 16:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have good rhythm here
2010-12-09 16:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add to that the OEX breadth MCSUM was able to find technical support at its zero line before turning higher
2010-12-09 16:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have all the markings of a re-initiation of a trend beginning
2010-12-09 16:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember folks
2010-12-09 16:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're compressed here
2010-12-09 16:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've talked about all summer
2010-12-09 16:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take a lot of energy to break decisively above the April highs
2010-12-09 16:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this energy factor IS compression
2010-12-09 16:51:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now since we have relieved our "overbought" conditions on an intermediate term basis
2010-12-09 16:51:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we CAN see an advancing trend can, in fact, begin
2010-12-09 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides... wouldn't this be equal and opposite of what the majority has been looking for this week?
2010-12-09 16:52:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first it was the short term "overbought" indicators
2010-12-09 16:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it was WWW
2010-12-09 16:53:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still we churn away without any sense of decline
2010-12-09 16:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just be cautious here if you're itching to short and watch your breadth plurality
2010-12-09 16:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only tomorrow, but next week as well while I'm away
2010-12-09 16:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember that the chat room is available to use while I'm away in case you folks want to throw things around
2010-12-09 16:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after finding snapback support at its zero line, the Dow breadth MCO moved to a higher high today
2010-12-09 16:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unlike last Tuesday where we talking about leaving the troops alone and look after the generals for bearish leadership
2010-12-09 16:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now the brass is slowly coming around to what the troops are leading
2010-12-09 16:55:37 [Message] manuj -> Chat: wow - the dow closed down but mco moved higher.
2010-12-09 16:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do not discount this
2010-12-09 16:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-12-09 16:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good observation...well it was down 2
2010-12-09 16:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it flat
2010-12-09 16:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still
2010-12-09 16:56:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was enough buying being done, on a short term trend basis (the MCO), that we did move higher
2010-12-09 16:56:59 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Generals have picked up steam
2010-12-09 16:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...let's call it that their slowing coming around to the troops opinion
2010-12-09 16:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that a path has been cleared for them to follow without getting any dirt on their nice uniforms
2010-12-09 16:58:01 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-12-09 16:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's little things like this that do matter in this area of analysis
2010-12-09 16:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they may not look like much
2010-12-09 16:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you have to consider that it takes more energy to move a trend in one direction or the other than it does to a one day wonder
2010-12-09 16:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so while the Dow has been chopping away
2010-12-09 16:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's been little selling
2010-12-09 16:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today there was more buying than selling on average
2010-12-09 16:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow point total then can be anything
2010-12-09 16:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2010-12-09 16:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if buying was taking place in 29 of the 30 stocks
2010-12-09 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and IBM was the lone loser
2010-12-09 17:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow average could be down for the day given the high weight of IBM
2010-12-09 17:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so context is always important
2010-12-09 17:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone can say...look the Dow was only down 2 points today
2010-12-09 17:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's what goes on underneath that will determine what will happen the next day, the next week, or the next month
2010-12-09 17:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will FOLLOW money flow
2010-12-09 17:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's just the way things are
2010-12-09 17:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth leads price
2010-12-09 17:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what we see with the McClellan's is that the short term trend of money flow as measured by the NYAD line (that of 4-6 weeks)
2010-12-09 17:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the intermediate term trend of this same money flow as measured by the NYAD line with the MCSUM (that of 6 weeks to 3 months)
2010-12-09 17:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's it
2010-12-09 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all we really want to know
2010-12-09 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we know this important information
2010-12-09 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we then see if other tools or methodologies will FIT what money flow is telling us direction is likely to be
2010-12-09 17:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's never the other way around
2010-12-09 17:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything technical is based on the NYAD line
2010-12-09 17:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the backbone of technical analysis
2010-12-09 17:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without it, you would have nothing to analyze
2010-12-09 17:04:40 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Hi Fib, I just realized yesterday that the MCSUM is the same as the MACD (19,39) of the cumulative advance decline line. I had thought about it as the cumulation of the daily MCO values. It is that as well but it is also the a MACD of the cumulative advance decline line. Is that correctly understood?
2010-12-09 17:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-12-09 17:05:11 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-12-09 17:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can use those settings intraday
2010-12-09 17:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the TICK
2010-12-09 17:05:21 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I do
2010-12-09 17:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2010-12-09 17:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember
2010-12-09 17:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO works its best magic on time stamps
2010-12-09 17:05:49 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: stamps?
2010-12-09 17:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what time frame are you using?
2010-12-09 17:06:01 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: 1 minute on the tick
2010-12-09 17:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew
2010-12-09 17:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-12-09 17:06:18 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-12-09 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: youngsters
2010-12-09 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what are you going to do?
2010-12-09 17:06:36 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I do not trade a lot on it yet
2010-12-09 17:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's my experience
2010-12-09 17:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: play with it on a 5 minute time period first
2010-12-09 17:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but 5 minute is only for fine tuning
2010-12-09 17:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you use anything less than 5 minutes you're going to get whipsawed
2010-12-09 17:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...a time stamp is, in this case, every 5 minute closing sequence
2010-12-09 17:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you want to compare a "settled" period
2010-12-09 17:07:54 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK. Got it
2010-12-09 17:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: play with this
2010-12-09 17:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: try an hourly first
2010-12-09 17:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then go to the 15 minute
2010-12-09 17:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: allow yourself some time both in the time flow and absorbing the data in different periods
2010-12-09 17:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything less than 15 minutes should only be used as a trigger point to compliment the higher time values
2010-12-09 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in 1999 (or so)
2010-12-09 17:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I did a TICK tutorial for Elliott Wave International
2010-12-09 17:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I really should see if it's still on their server and post it to TW
2010-12-09 17:10:15 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: In order to not get an arbitrary ticks
2010-12-09 17:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will show you how to utilize the TICK in this fashion
2010-12-09 17:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TICK is the TICK
2010-12-09 17:10:28 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK. That would be great
2010-12-09 17:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is a matching of a buyers and sellers
2010-12-09 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's breadth, but right the time of execution
2010-12-09 17:10:50 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Yes but if you only read it every 5 minutes. It can be anywhere
2010-12-09 17:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can
2010-12-09 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why I suggest an hourly platform
2010-12-09 17:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would play with it on paper first
2010-12-09 17:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: get yourself used to the rhythm and how it reacts in conjunction to the daily forecasts
2010-12-09 17:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything must work together to get a preferred outcome
2010-12-09 17:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't have this part out of sync
2010-12-09 17:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you do that, you're just trading on a bias
2010-12-09 17:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you must leave any biases that you might have at the trading door
2010-12-09 17:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice to know...but these biases have very little to do with making money
2010-12-09 17:12:55 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: So true
2010-12-09 17:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're looking for cadence
2010-12-09 17:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're looking for rhythm
2010-12-09 17:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're looking for ebb and flow...just like going to the beach and watching the tide move in and out
2010-12-09 17:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you time the tide correctly, you can anticipate the rhythm
2010-12-09 17:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what surfers do
2010-12-09 17:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same playbook applies here
2010-12-09 17:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will always see others come up with this tool or this indicator and proudly proclaim their opinion
2010-12-09 17:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but these same people tend not to have substantive examples to back their opinions up when questioned
2010-12-09 17:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why I believe it's important to respect any work any one does in this business
2010-12-09 17:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the real meat in understanding is to question or challenge these same people when things don't add up
2010-12-09 17:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they're worth their weight, they will answer directly and give examples to share
2010-12-09 17:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not...the nasty side comes out and you should move on
2010-12-09 17:17:05 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: True
2010-12-09 17:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is how you differentiate between what or who you should respect and those you really shouldn't waste your time with because they WILL pollute your style and skill set
2010-12-09 17:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...onward
2010-12-09 17:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO moved slightly higher today
2010-12-09 17:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but is still below the highs of earlier this week
2010-12-09 17:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and STILL below the more important MCO highs of early November
2010-12-09 17:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the potential of bearish divergence remains
2010-12-09 17:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components
2010-12-09 17:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the bulls still remain in control of the near term action...
2010-12-09 17:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if they are lurking behind a rock or a tree and sizing up the situation
2010-12-09 17:19:15 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: How would it move from potential to real divergence?
2010-12-09 17:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: divergence is only triggered once the previous low point is violated
2010-12-09 17:19:49 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK. Sure
2010-12-09 17:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case, that would be the end November lows on the MCO
2010-12-09 17:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's only the potential for now
2010-12-09 17:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be respected, but in all reality, it can't be traded
2010-12-09 17:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bull divergence though is reality
2010-12-09 17:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how far it takes us is always debatable
2010-12-09 17:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until the bears show some power here
2010-12-09 17:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to give the nod to the bulls until they lose their power
2010-12-09 17:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important to keep things as simple as possible
2010-12-09 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to not allow your bias or opinion get in the way of what you see is the actual case in hand
2010-12-09 17:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market starts to agree with your bias, in this case triggering bear divergence, then go for it
2010-12-09 17:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until trade what you see
2010-12-09 17:22:57 [Message] manuj -> Chat: so for now stay long. but keep your finger ready to go short?
2010-12-09 17:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing here is that we should always be looking for reasons of why our analysis can be wrong
2010-12-09 17:23:32 [Message] manuj -> Chat: or better to stay cash for now until bulls and bears fight it out a bit longer
2010-12-09 17:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until it triggers a new sequence to trade, we just remain vigilant
2010-12-09 17:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO's close to their zero lines
2010-12-09 17:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it means that both sides are evenly matched
2010-12-09 17:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCO moves in one direction or the other
2010-12-09 17:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is more and more money moving in that direction
2010-12-09 17:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of the zero line as an equal amount of buyers and sellers
2010-12-09 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you had 100 traders...50% would be buyers, and 50% would be sellers
2010-12-09 17:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more that ratio changes, the more power that side has to move prices in their direction
2010-12-09 17:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, if anything
2010-12-09 17:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many of the MCO's slightly above their zero lines
2010-12-09 17:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can remain in cash...on nibble...with a bullish bias until PROVEN otherwise
2010-12-09 17:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our job here, first and foremost, is to determine direction
2010-12-09 17:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which way will yield the easiest work in making a profitable trade just that
2010-12-09 17:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't want to work to too hard to do so
2010-12-09 17:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having to go over indicators and charts every day or every weekend is a lot of work
2010-12-09 17:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we want to do with this work is to make a list of candidates that will be used depending on the direction the market takes
2010-12-09 17:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we go higher...we have a list of bullish chart configuration to work with
2010-12-09 17:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we go lower...equal and opposite
2010-12-09 17:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the strong get stronger
2010-12-09 17:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weak get weaker
2010-12-09 17:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probability and outcome that's all this is
2010-12-09 17:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a casino
2010-12-09 17:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the worlds largest at that
2010-12-09 17:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you go into a casino without any technical skill, it's not likely you're going to get out of there with any money
2010-12-09 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's our objective
2010-12-09 17:29:56 [Message] manuj -> Chat: absolutely right
2010-12-09 17:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to try to have as many directional indicators in our corner
2010-12-09 17:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we find a way to best exploit that direction
2010-12-09 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's it
2010-12-09 17:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the best way to understand direction
2010-12-09 17:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more to the point
2010-12-09 17:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the amplitude of how far and how wide a trending move is likely to go
2010-12-09 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comes with the McClellan's and the raw advance/decline line
2010-12-09 17:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the advance/decline line actually is actual money that is available that can be used for investment
2010-12-09 17:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not that it will be used
2010-12-09 17:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's shows us how much actual liquidity (fuel) there is for prices to feed off of
2010-12-09 17:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we then find a way to measure the speed and the how far this money can be applied to prices
2010-12-09 17:33:05 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: How come the AD line reveals that?
2010-12-09 17:33:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then understand how a far and long a price pattern sequence is likely to last
2010-12-09 17:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the AD line is money that is available for investment
2010-12-09 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the money flow aggregate of the equities market
2010-12-09 17:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the money that, after everything else has been used as an allocation, is left over for the market to either have prices rise or fall
2010-12-09 17:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are 4 asset classes
2010-12-09 17:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold
2010-12-09 17:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: commodities
2010-12-09 17:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: debt
2010-12-09 17:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: equities
2010-12-09 17:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when monetary policy is loose
2010-12-09 17:35:19 [Message] manuj -> Chat: when you say gold - can we assume all precious metals?
2010-12-09 17:35:22 [Message] manuj -> Chat: or gold specifically
2010-12-09 17:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only
2010-12-09 17:35:33 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok
2010-12-09 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold is different from precious stands on its own
2010-12-09 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it this way
2010-12-09 17:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of the markets as a river
2010-12-09 17:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the summer comes (tighter monetary policy) the level of the river recedes, and with it, all of its tributaries and ponds
2010-12-09 17:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these tributaries can be up river or down river
2010-12-09 17:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they include the major asset classes
2010-12-09 17:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they also include smaller ponds and streams
2010-12-09 17:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: housing
2010-12-09 17:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummm...savings
2010-12-09 17:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things that make the economic river flow
2010-12-09 17:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the FED loosens monetary policy
2010-12-09 17:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would with letting water out from a dam
2010-12-09 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this raises the water level of the river to where ponds, streams start to rise as well
2010-12-09 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the river, the more tributaries it fills
2010-12-09 17:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2010-12-09 17:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold is the first large pond that is fills after everything else becomes saturated
2010-12-09 17:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as any excesses in this same liquidity will over flow into this asset class first
2010-12-09 17:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the level there gets too high
2010-12-09 17:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it flows into other causeways, into commodities, and starts to fill that area up
2010-12-09 17:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then into debt
2010-12-09 17:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then finally into equities
2010-12-09 17:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the measuring stick, if you will, that we use to measure the depth of this equity liquidity "pond" is the A/D line
2010-12-09 17:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more we have to work with, the more boats that will be raised by this water level
2010-12-09 17:41:11 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Fib, I understand how liquidity moves from one asset class to another or from one sector to another in the stock market. But I have difficulty grasping why the AD line is a measure of liquidity. How come it works as a measure for liquidity?
2010-12-09 17:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now whether or not these boats move out to the river or not, that is always our debate here
2010-12-09 17:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a dip stick
2010-12-09 17:41:56 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-12-09 17:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the premise here
2010-12-09 17:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the equity markets are ALWAYS in a bear market
2010-12-09 17:42:12 [Message] manuj -> Chat: fib, by debt you mean bonds?
2010-12-09 17:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...debt is bonds to bills
2010-12-09 17:42:31 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok
2010-12-09 17:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes money to move prices higher
2010-12-09 17:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes excess money to be available to move prices higher
2010-12-09 17:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more money there is
2010-12-09 17:43:19 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: That is a good explanation! Thanks
2010-12-09 17:43:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more likely that with everything else either "full", or fully valued or over valued, this same money will be applied because...
2010-12-09 17:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money know what money likes and money likes to make more money
2010-12-09 17:44:08 [Message] manuj -> Chat: that markets are more liquid than ever with all the printing. but is that true wealth in terms of buying power?
2010-12-09 17:44:15 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-12-09 17:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't really matter WHY we have high liquidity levels
2010-12-09 17:45:13 [Message] manuj -> Chat: let me re-phrase the question. can the liquidity become too intense that money starts to lose its true value to be able to raise price
2010-12-09 17:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we really care about there enough money to not only keep prices from falling back to the default of a bear market (high level consolidation), but is there also enough for it to push for more demand, that will shrink supply, which increases the valued of the product?
2010-12-09 17:46:16 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok
2010-12-09 17:46:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: what would be the order of money moving out of the asset classes?
2010-12-09 17:46:24 [Message] manuj -> Chat: makes sense. sorta :-)
2010-12-09 17:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your re-phrase has little to do with technical analysis as it would have more to do with fundamental analysis
2010-12-09 17:46:36 [Message] manuj -> Chat: got it
2010-12-09 17:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first in - first out Lew
2010-12-09 17:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of gold as a savings account
2010-12-09 17:47:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks, thought so but needed to confirm
2010-12-09 17:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money moves there first where everything else is already perceived as fully valued
2010-12-09 17:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold has intrinsic value
2010-12-09 17:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is solid
2010-12-09 17:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can hold it in your hand
2010-12-09 17:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its finite
2010-12-09 17:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as opposed to paper
2010-12-09 17:48:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it's the only real money
2010-12-09 17:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was chosen to be, yes
2010-12-09 17:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could had been platinum
2010-12-09 17:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there isn't any in the middle east
2010-12-09 17:49:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...did I answer the question?
2010-12-09 17:49:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-12-09 17:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (what was the question anyway? lol )
2010-12-09 17:49:24 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: first in first out (FIFO). In what sense?
2010-12-09 17:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...if you have a lot of money
2010-12-09 17:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you spent it on cars
2010-12-09 17:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and homes
2010-12-09 17:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and whatever else
2010-12-09 17:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you still have some left over after that
2010-12-09 17:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you put it away for safe keeping
2010-12-09 17:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold is the safe keeping
2010-12-09 17:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then if you find something you want because its either undervalued or attractive
2010-12-09 17:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you move this same excess out of your savings and buy it
2010-12-09 17:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thought process here
2010-12-09 17:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh man...we need to wind this up
2010-12-09 17:51:21 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-12-09 17:51:26 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Thanks
2010-12-09 17:51:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me go through the rest of the charts
2010-12-09 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2010-12-09 17:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we talked about on Tuesday
2010-12-09 17:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO has now snapped back to the +50 breakout area
2010-12-09 17:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this MCO now goes higher
2010-12-09 17:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are maybe 2 trading days away from making new highs on the SML breadth MCSUM
2010-12-09 17:52:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this happens
2010-12-09 17:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very unlikely that we're going to see any kind of decline into the end of the year
2010-12-09 17:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change tonight on the TM breadth MCO
2010-12-09 17:53:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a bounce off the zero line to boot
2010-12-09 17:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...either we have a very powerful uptrend underway with a tremendous amount of liquidity keeping things buoyant
2010-12-09 17:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we're going to see another couple of days of chop
2010-12-09 17:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for next week...just watch the breadth MCO's
2010-12-09 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you see any of them take out their November highs
2010-12-09 17:54:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then look at their volume compliment
2010-12-09 17:54:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they too are above their November highs
2010-12-09 17:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a nice run into the end of the year
2010-12-09 17:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's remain bullish here
2010-12-09 17:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are near term "overbought"
2010-12-09 17:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's still have a lot of room to see continued positive money flow
2010-12-09 17:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it...price breakouts
2010-12-09 17:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .50
2010-12-09 17:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .64
2010-12-09 17:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummm...
2010-12-09 17:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a problem here
2010-12-09 17:57:12 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: That is the lowest value in like 10 years
2010-12-09 17:57:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's not so much with the value of the Open 10
2010-12-09 17:57:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's the way it got there
2010-12-09 17:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we take out C's volume the last couple of days
2010-12-09 17:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we wouldn't be as nearly "overbought"
2010-12-09 17:57:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lucky for us, however, the Open 10 only lasts 10 days and the skewing effect will be past by the time I get back
2010-12-09 17:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime
2010-12-09 17:58:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: then the volume indicators are skewed, as well?
2010-12-09 17:58:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would use the NASDAQ Open 10 for guidance
2010-12-09 17:58:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know
2010-12-09 17:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reason is
2010-12-09 17:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know how exactly the volume oscillators are figured
2010-12-09 17:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2010-12-09 17:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they "look" OK
2010-12-09 17:59:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ndx?
2010-12-09 17:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the volume oscillators?
2010-12-09 17:59:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-12-09 18:00:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: on the volume MCO, sorry
2010-12-09 18:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since it seems to be closer to neutral based on the MCO and MCSUM, I would use it
2010-12-09 18:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume?
2010-12-09 18:00:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: volume osc
2010-12-09 18:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would follow the broader NASDAQ composite volume MCO
2010-12-09 18:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want the broad market to lead the brass (NDX)
2010-12-09 18:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as that's maintained, we have to give the nod to the bulls
2010-12-09 18:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're showing the muscle
2010-12-09 18:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have the liquidity to move prices
2010-12-09 18:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .80
2010-12-09 18:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2010-12-09 18:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...that makes sense given the direction of price and the internals
2010-12-09 18:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .65
2010-12-09 18:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .75
2010-12-09 18:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "overbought"
2010-12-09 18:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-12-09 18:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best forecast here is to continue to look for a retracement, or choppy behavior, with the market's bias to the upside
2010-12-09 18:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it has to do with the garbage going on in DC
2010-12-09 18:03:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it looks to me that the marginal utility of the liquidity is weakening
2010-12-09 18:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as has been the expectation here, I still believe that we're likely to chop around until next Friday
2010-12-09 18:04:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what area specifically?
2010-12-09 18:04:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, we go from high breadth pumps to negative breadth pretty fast
2010-12-09 18:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rhythm here for the last few days has been with the bulls
2010-12-09 18:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see nice openings, and then we sag through the day
2010-12-09 18:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we tend to hold just below unchanged
2010-12-09 18:05:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the trin looks like a force, as well
2010-12-09 18:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is bullish pattern behavior
2010-12-09 18:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would discount the TRIN for now
2010-12-09 18:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will only take 10 days to get Citibank's number to drop off
2010-12-09 18:06:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I am, I wish citi was out of it, though
2010-12-09 18:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s not
2010-12-09 18:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we adjust
2010-12-09 18:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do know is, prior to Tuesday, we were looking for an "overbought" pull back
2010-12-09 18:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it happens, it still wouldn't be a surprised
2010-12-09 18:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but everyday that we don't pull back
2010-12-09 18:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is one less day the bears have to capitalize on an opening in the defense
2010-12-09 18:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the hole gets plugged quickly
2010-12-09 18:07:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed, just a bit dangerous around the zero line
2010-12-09 18:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we go back to the line of scrimmage
2010-12-09 18:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the line of scrimmage
2010-12-09 18:07:56 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: The ledge in NYSE Comp MCSUM, is that still a ledge?
2010-12-09 18:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each side is coming up with a play to move the ball forward
2010-12-09 18:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the compression noted, we're likely to see a hail Mary pass
2010-12-09 18:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ledge is there
2010-12-09 18:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the case of the NYSE composite breadth MCSUM, it's more of a broken ledge
2010-12-09 18:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like...remember the Road Runner cartoons?
2010-12-09 18:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Wylie Coyote was standing at the ledge
2010-12-09 18:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a piece broke off?
2010-12-09 18:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same thing here
2010-12-09 18:09:20 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Yes
2010-12-09 18:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're holding on to the rest of the ledge
2010-12-09 18:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will we pull ourselves up, or will we lose our hold?
2010-12-09 18:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the real question here
2010-12-09 18:09:55 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: No price decay so far
2010-12-09 18:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2010-12-09 18:10:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I guess it also bothers me that much of the advance is done afterhours with no volume-before we open
2010-12-09 18:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's not for a lack of trying
2010-12-09 18:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will change soon Lew
2010-12-09 18:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've noted this to be purely European driven rally
2010-12-09 18:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but money is rotating now
2010-12-09 18:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need is a spark
2010-12-09 18:10:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-12-09 18:11:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm with you on probable chop
2010-12-09 18:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last couple of days convinced you, huh?
2010-12-09 18:11:32 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Have a nice vacation!
2010-12-09 18:11:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-12-09 18:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks Tonny
2010-12-09 18:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I plan to get away from everything
2010-12-09 18:11:47 [Message] tracca -> Chat: enjoy
2010-12-09 18:11:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, enjoy!
2010-12-09 18:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: clear my mind
2010-12-09 18:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if there's nothing else
2010-12-09 18:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2010-12-09 18:12:04 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Have fun!
2010-12-09 18:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great week of trading
2010-12-09 18:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this again on the 21st
2010-12-09 18:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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